Adam, as a suggestion, bring Neil back and spend more time on wealth preservation during this crisis of 4th turning. I live in Midwest so we already live everyday close to family and friends helping one another in times of crisis , as we never lost "real world relationships". However, most of us Midwest folks have our parents or grandparents stories of economic destruction during last 4th turning.. so please focus on wealth preservation during next interview with Neil.
One of the scary things about this is that the "younger" generations are already in their 30s with little hope for a rewarding career, home and many without new families. Even if you could decide not to spend away their future at this point, a good portion of it has already been spent and many are not well equipped for leading. I see Gen X who are similar to Millenials but had already entered and gotten established in the job market prior to the crash leading the way.
@@emailsender7139 Agree. It’s never since I came into the “workforce” in ‘76 to be Successful and SHINE! What do I mean by that? Show Up! Learn how do to your work. And ....Actually .... Do It! Sheesh. It’s not rocket science to look, and be ... Great! As a Head Chef for 45 years, it ain’t that hard!
@@emailsender7139 Lol. I have one full time, and one part time job and am earning my PhD and supporting a family (and working from home!). My pay is a little above industry standard. That said, most of my millenial friends work 2-3 jobs with liberal arts BA and MA degrees that their parents encouraged them to get and are barely getting by. My Zoomer coworkers have tons of side jobs and a very bleak outlook on the future with tons of anxiety and little hope. It is easy to blame lack of success on an individual as lazy, fragile, or entitled but when you have this happening in mass its time to look in the mirror and wonder what economic factors may have been at play in favor of you and your growth vs the generation you were supposed to raise (if you are a boomer).
That said, all very young people tend to have an over idealized outlook on what they "know" or what they might make at their first job (and tend to spend their money on stupid stuff if they do not live in a war zone). The problem is, concretely society has severely economically disadvantaged large numbers of the population we all need to have taken their place in society and ensured the next generation by now. A course correction is needed on the macro yesterday.
As you can tell I listen/watch almost all of your interviews. Without fail all are brilliant. One small constructive criticism is that sometimes your guests use terrible microphones. So I have to turn the sound up when they speak but then have turn it down when you speak. Slightly annoying!
No kidding. I always tell smart young people that if they want to make big $, have a great job security, be able to fail upward and ok with living in DC area, politics or govt work is #1 opportunity in the country. Just have to willing to not care about we the people and be willing to sell your soul to the highest bidder.
I think the most honest comment I’ve heard from a 25 year old was: “My generation is just waiting for yours to die, then we’re going to fix the world” After I picked up my jaw, I said: “By the time I’m dead, you’re going to be about my age. Why don’t you start “fixing the world” now?”
He seems optimistic about the younger generations' "community" mindset, which has ominous socialistic undertones. Socialism in the US only leads to destruction and misery. Hopefully the younglings will focus on correcting the corporatism that is currently infecting capitalism, restoring some degree of balance to capital and labor.
I sadly agree with you. Right now the common perception of what went wrong is "capitalism" and not corporate monopoly power hand in hand with big government.
@@StormKingLand Good luck with that, as your government taxes you to death to pay for people who refuse to work. Or, perhaps you are one who refuses to work? Cooperation is essential for any society's success, but reducing everyone to the lowest possible outcome does not equal success. Regarding Star Trek, are you old school or next gen? Would socialism allow Kirk to have his cabin in the Sierras or Picard to have his vinyard in France? The answer is no....
As a millenial I see decentralized communities forming out of necessity, working toward energy and water independence through small self governing neighborhoods that rely less and less on imports for sustenance. Again this will be out of necessity as globalism becomes obsolete and undesirable.
@@Tidnull sounds inflationary, but that is what the necessary de-globalization will bring, inflation. My kids are mid-millennials, I’m gen-x, and I, like most I suppose, am beyond concerned about the fiscal dumpster fire the Fed and our incompetent politicians have delivered us. Good luck out there!
@@StormKingLand As someone wearing her Star Trek shirt right this second, Star Trek economics is not well thought out and cooperation is not antithetical to capitalism. It is to monopoly power. Now, this advice will only cost you 5 Starfleet credits. Cheers!
@@wasdwasdedsfwe millennials are the bad batch because we don’t want the cleansing, cathartic, unifying nuclear war with Russia and/or China that Howe and the other neocons seem to be lusting for
Fascinating discussion and really look forward to Neil's return. If possible, I'd love to hear him discuss the role of energy (and access to cheaper energy) as a dimension in previous turnings and how availability to fossil energy could impact how the fourth plays out. There is increasing awareness to social and economic challenges as Limits to Growth (and similar frameworks) and I'd be curious how demographics overlap the trajectory of our use of finite resources. Thanks again for a great discussion!
Great commentary on leadership. Fascinating narrative with an interesting smattering of historical and literary references. All in support of a narrative, of course, but one to which I subscribe. I can only hope that folks watching recognize the gravity of comments about "collateral damage" and just how severe the pain from such events will be. Let's not lose sight of literally millions of lives lost in past 4th turnings. Great leaders like Lincoln and Churchill oversaw mass destruction and human misery.
As gen x we've felt helpless and ignored the whole of our lives. First we were controlled by the boomers who never seem to retire and now the more numerous millennials are the ones in charge. What was our role? All of the deep thinkers I know are gen x but no one listens to us.
Zeihan talks a bunch about this. Boomers and Millennials are both *larger* generations than Xers, so Xers will tend to be outvoted. Your time is now, though, to start taking the reins of things as all the boomers are *finally* retiring. (Now we just need to get them to retire from political office too...)
We do tend to get caught in Cassandra complex, where we are not listened to. Maybe it is the X'ers time to shine and bring a better future to the next generations. I think it has to start with stripping some of the wealth from the boomers. They have had all the benefits, the tax breaks, the best opportunities. Time for them to help future generations and not be remembered as the generation who blew it all on self interest. I am in Australia and saw how the boomers voted down the removal of tax benefits like negative gearing and capital gains discounts, it was pure self interest.
I get your point but.....boomers spent the last 20 years rebuilding retirement funds from criminal banks and stock holding companies adventures that nobody was prosecuted over. Today we are taken advantage of by the real threat to the working poor and people dedicated to fairness......Blackroc , Vanquard and state sleet
Come to the dark side and become one of us ;) Or, Gen X always seemed like the cooler slightly older ones with all the stuff. There are large numbers of folks needing direction from the more experienced and think many Millenials and Gen Z want mentors and need to grow in competency and opportunity in their fields.
According to the new book, The Bubble that Broke the Bank, we are facing a triple alignment of financial disaster: The real estate crisis, the credit cycle crash, and distressed properties. These three crashes will be the basis of the financial foundations of the fourth turning. This will surpass the 2008 real estate crash.
I'm a conservative but when I think of someone who could be that type of great leader for the fourth turning, I think of someone like RFK Jr. The more I listen to that guy talk the more I like him. He seems so non-partisan and it actually feels like he genuinely cares about the state of our nation and the people in it. Not only that, he never gets baited into trash talking but stays focused on the course ahead, on the issues that really matter to the majority of Americans. I don't necessarily mean that "he's the guy" but I imagine it would be someone like him.
The benefit in all of the future prognosticators out there is that they can point out where things are likely to go if you don't do something to stop or change it. Humans are very good about seeing problems that are coming and acting to prevent that thing from happening. So, often what may happen never does.
Leaders are here, I’m the 2023 recipient of the Outstanding Leadership Award for Contributions in Ed and Learning and I’m on the shortlist of candidates for the Outstanding Visionaries Award, to be conferred in Dubai. Unfortunately we’re not packaged to fit the imagery based on the perceptions of what true leadership looks like-true leadership produces results. Todays leaders are authors of our own narratives. As Emerson writes, you don’t have to tell who you are because what you are speaks so loudly that I can’t even hear you. Peace.
Neill Howe and (i apologize I've forgotten his fellow author) have accomplished great scholarship. However, his ability to prognosticate leaves a lot to be admired. I don't think history is determinist. What one generation does over another has to be much more nuanced that he suggests. I see the trend, but great actors either come from a deep understanding of the human condition, or become tyrants. I know that Neil understands this, but I 'suggest more nuance to the future. Just a thought - beware the coming of the brown/black shirts.
They could be wearing red hats or rainbow shirts... time will tell, but one thing for sure is that the good guys don't push their ideologies on any one. People should be free to adopt them as they see fit. The problem with 4th turning is that they can end in tragedies or genocides as we have seen so many times in past human history.
@@JoeBlow-nh7mp indeed! the side who had the country stolen, provenly, by a vegetable authoritarian regime, and protested aroudn the capitol with only them being casualties by the state, with ZERO guns found, could DEFINITELY be coming tyrants...
@@JoeBlow-nh7mp i hope youre clear theres only one of those sides pushing their will an ideologies on the other... and its probably the one cheering for locking down the country for 2 years over a cough virus, and trying to push a batch of rushed untested chemicals onto their popluation under threat of force... while at one time 40 to 50% being in favor of locking up people if they didnt take it, or having their children taken from them
The first big red flag is that Howe never addresses what he got wrong in the 4th Turning from 1998. Though I believe in the saeculum, that we are in the 4th turning, and that Howe & Strauss got many things correct, I believe he is now blinded and cherry picking to fit his belief system. Thinking that FOMO is generational community oriented is absurd. The same with YOLO. Millennials are far from "group" oriented and socially altruistic. They're the generation of the "selfie" and YOLO and FOMO makes for a selfish society. Furthermore, not once does he take into account godlessness which is the foundation of our selfishness and the unraveling of our national unity. Having hardship in common isn't enough. We live in an increasingly Tower of Babel society. "The new world of freedom and science doesn't offer what purpose souls really need." From Father Zosima in The Brothers Karamazov by Dostoevsky. New rights have been created over time but we can't create new morals; they remain the same since the before the writing of Gilgamesh. Howe also underestimates and seems to disregard the effect of technology on Millenials; let alone the decreasing of beta waves and susceptibility to propaganda in constant alpha wave states. Things are far worse than he knows. Tyranny is growing, coming, and that would end the current saeculum(s) as we know them (from Anglo-American history).
Just one more conversation to cause further division through generations rather than race, politics, class, sex (insert your preferred dividing term here). It's division that assures that the few in power will remain in power and they are sleeping well. The day the majority sees past the division tactics and begins to focus on those propagating it will be the day the powerful panic. It's closer than they think.
What the heck? Hey @Wealthion - my phone seems to have autonomously reported your content. I’m listening on an old iPhone 6 that is strictly used and an iPod. When the battery is low, it skips ahead on content. So, my apologies. Not sure how to undo that.
It would seem the real value of Niel's work is to get US to think along the lines that generaltional attitudes track with the Kondrative economic cycle. As to the timing, we need to look elsewhere - perhaps our own insights? Personally I think "feel" we are close to the most dramatic times where all hell breaks loose. All the fundamentals scream recession/depression yet it seems monsterous liquidity keeps the market and economy afloat. What will it take to empty the larder of liquidity. A new all time high in the markets with FOMO emptying pockets? Those few famous lines are appropriate here: "Slowly at first then all at once." "There are decades where nothing happens, then decades happen in a few months."
Close to being the most captivating interview I've heard on this channel. It was very insightful and provides a lot of historical context ... plenty food for thought.
He uses the word nation, which we used to be a true nation, we are now multiple nations as all empires eventually become, and which is also what tear them apart as each of those nations want different things for their different peoples.
SUPER GREAT EPISODE! He should be one of your go to people to round out your for group as he brings the key perspective and expertise that rounds out the financial.
During a fourth turning just how bad is good...??? in the long run - Is a Nuclear War just the right amount of social adjustment ??? Because we just might find out this time we go too far - So understanding a fourth turning can help, but will we look back on this one and say I am glad I went through it !!! economic collapse, nuclear war, and political collapse, famine, pole shift and loss of the world wide electrical grid...take your pick. If you aren't prepping by now good luck you will not get through this fourth turning ( they are not always the same).
I don’t know how he can lump all Millennials into one group and say we are all community oriented. I care about myself, my family, and my friends. I don’t want my taxes to pay for some lazy pieces of $hit that live 2,000 miles away.
He wrote this book in 1998, that was 25 years ago. I’ll leave people on here salivating over his advice. have no idea how little he knows. I learned my lesson over 40 years ago when Douglas M Casey wrote his ridiculous paper back on the coming. Great depression. 1982! It was actually the single best time in all of American history to buy stocks.😂
Well the crisis is clearly happening the question is how it will play out. But I'm sure people like Neil have already prepared the rich to respond to this crisis that's why they release the bio weapon
Can anyone help me understand his views on resources and bonds. From what I understand gold bottomed in 6/1920, then really jumped right after 12/1929, then topped in 4/1934 then fell till 11/1970. Bond Yields as far as I can see from the Moody's Aaa bond history graph, bottomed in 1900, then topped in 1920, then bottomed in 1946. So if we are in a 4th turning like the one before and during WWII, then shouldn't we expect bond yields to go down? Or is he expecting bond yields to go down, bond prices to go up, but bond price appreciation to be eclipsed by money printing?
The stock market is a complex system that is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic indicators, political events, and global trends. The relationship between policies and the stock market can be complex and multifaceted, and it can take time for the full effects of policies to be reflected in market trends. Therefore, it is possible that policies implemented in the past may have a "lagged effect" on the stock market, as their full impact may not be felt until later on.
I wish I could put my finger on what the take away is from Howe and this drag on and on analysis.. It’s prepare for rough waters ahead, economically speaking.. Same.. Same.. Hunt, Snider, Henry, Rogers, Van Metre, etc..
Great points about Seniors. Govts have only planned aged pensions till 65/70 but are paying out into 100+. It's probably time we leave pension at 80 and self funded after that...
Here’s what perplexes me.. the 4th turning giving rise to the 1st. The Yuga cycle has the Iron Age yielding to a new Bronze Age, then silver and THEN a Golden Age. It’s a long crawl out of the depths, rather than a pinnacle of civilization arising overnight from chaos and barbarism. But then again, God works in mysterious ways…
Yes, all solutions too painful. So they won't happen. Instead a catastrophic blow up, and then more manipulation until it's all out of control. Then a reset because nothing is left to manipulate.
Start with breaking up the monopolys, severely limit gov subsidies, do sadly let the fake economy crumble by not artificially injecting it with more cash and raising interest rates (will affect more people like me negatively at first), and make industrial start up easier and mom and pop business start up easier with fewer regulations on them? Would actually love some critiques here. These are my brainstorming weeks.
One reason that the older generations did things together was because they lived in smaller houses, so "home" was a place to rest between going out with friends for entertainment. What could you do at home, besides eat, sleep, and listen to radio. But TV gave people more entertainment at home, and homes got built larger and larger so family members weren't tripping over each other. And now we have UA-cam, which is far more informative and entertaining than TV, and smaller families. Many of us can even work from home (without working together with other members of the household).
Go further back in time and people earned a living from their homes. Homes were the center for economic opportunity. It would be interesting to see if some of the work from home trend ironically brings us back to an earlier period in some respects.
The good thing for America, as long as they are able to maintain their political three tiered structure, someone will step up and lead the nation back on track.
The world, as always, is changing... and this time from some huge metrics already on our doorstep. The big ones being the permanent demographic decline in population and the influence of some very powerful technologies. These changes are unstoppable and... that's a good thing anyway. The only problem humanity has, is the inability for our stupid leaders to even see these changes that are before us, let alone put in place a 10-20 year, globally coordinated, transitional plan to embrace these changes... all without war or any other human suffering. And this is because we do not yet have real Democracy; it hasn't been put into practice yet. In reality, all countries are under some sort of dictatorship. Only when we have a real democracy, where we can be governed by the collective brilliance of all people, will we have law, order and clever governance.
Mr. Howe gives a nice account of, and some historical evidence for his generational theory, but I have always had a problem with the idea of assigning group status to children who are being born on a flat time curve, not a lumpy one. Obviously the Boomers represent a bubble in population growth in America, but otherwise children are born at a steady rate, pretty much. Therefore anyone attempting to cluster the population into separate groups has a problem - where do I draw my (let’s face it, arbitrary) line to separate one generation from the next? We can see that therefore the choice must be a fairly subjective one, since, as I said, objectively the population / date curve is pretty smooth. I believe in cycles in the weather and in real estate prices and a lot of other measurable groups, but the theory of generational characteristics is not one of those, is it?
Increasing competition over increasingly scarce resources along with downward demographic trend - quite paradoxical, since per capita resource availability should effectively rise. Means that more and more would be hogged by fewer and fewer....can't sustain, come what may.
I was surprised the way he talked about him. But, cannot deny that he’s a sharp politician. He was born 1923 - greatest generation? But did not serve, I don’t believe, like so many did then - sacrificed. He also didn’t marry until his 50s if I got the math right.
you have one illegitimate old folks home patient who cant finish asentance, screaming like a certain mustache guy in front of a red white house, that the other side is the most extreme movement in the history of the country, and them being a threat to democracy... with the whole side making comments alongside of calling them domestic ter|s... and you have them now actively prosecuting their opposition for counts that equates to hundreds of years in prison, with ZERO basis or evidence put forward
its time for what? what does the upcoing presidential elections tell you? you have one illegitimate old folks home patient who cant finish asentance, screaming like a certain mustache guy in front of a red white house, that the other side is the most extreme movement in the history of the country, and them being a threat to democracy... with the whole side making comments alongside of calling them domestic ter|s... and you have them now actively prosecuting their opposition for counts that equates to hundreds of years in prison, with ZERO basis or evidence put forward so i guess you mean that its time to vote them out
X Gen here and we are here to help the best we can... Every generation is important! Boomer's had good and bad characteristics... Some mistakes were made and good things came about for us all... You didn't know the future as we don't know our future either... Stay safe and be proud of your contribution to the world!
Not sure what to make of some of what Neil says. Sounds like he might be saying conformity, groupthink, obedience to authority, is the future? Are millennials creative and tough enough to lead? You have to be able to tolerate adversity. I don’t know. I hope they can reconnect with reality, be open to wisdom, and tougher skinned. You can be all this and still be kind, generous, and wise.
Being a leftist, it's no surprise that this guy envisions a future (First Turning) that is more "inclusive" and "equitable". Everyone interprets the world through the prism of their ideology.
Techno-Fascist Corporatism must be eliminated or you will not have anything near what the Founders & Constitution articulated for the country. You will not have the country you were promised, paying for, or worth living in.
The Soviet Union lasted over 80 years, I get we want to optimistic; but let’s get real if there was any near term hope we never would have got ourselves in this place in the first place.
We get the leadership we deserve. Look what the liberals did the Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. Then we will wonder why good leaders won't want to step forward for those types of positions. The same could be said of the lawmakers and President. It's a circuis.
I think automation will take care of the demographic shift economically. The problem will be that it will only further concentrate wealth via the capitalism snowball. As a country, we will have to address the wealth inequality and potential unemployment somehow. I'm not sure if I have an answer for it, but I think it will be the biggest issue we will need to face in the coming decades.
A lot of these things are inverted. Modernity encourages barbarism and genocide through industrialization, nationalism, and totalitarian ideologies that cast the traditions of the past aside. Similarly, social media is actually promotes antisocial behaviour, when we view it through the prism of modernity. We think we are connecting to other people, and that might happen to some extent, but we do it at the expense of REAL, meaningful relations. As Rene Guenon said, we are living in a reign of a quantity. Only the numbers of things being produced go up. The actual quality of living, when we stop thinking like economists and scientists but actual philosophers, has gone down. That's the overall trajectory of this world as we get closer and closer to the end times, Kali Yuga, Qayamat, whatever you want to call it.
Xers and Xennials need to position themselves as sources of wisdom and guidance for the next generation . Millenials haven’t gone through the traditional learning structures X got to but are being forced into positions of management and leadership without having the experience to back it . Xers just have to melt a little of their colder exterior of every body’s wrong approach and take a educational/coach / mentor approach despite yes I know we all had to do it ourselves . 😂
Did Neil just say the US wasnt committed enough to Mid East nation building and thats why we failed in Iraq and Afghanistan unlike Germany and Japan. We were in Afghanistan for 20 years. How much blood and treasure does Neil think we should have spent?
I think its a good time to be young if there's a work crunch and low work force for alot of industries, if your a lets say young person getting into the trades or what ever , if everyone your age is going to school and old people are retiring its a perfect time to be a skilled worker . Peter zeihan is really optimistic about it , idk the world will look very different in the future but north America will be fine , specially if the conservatives win the culture war . So its not the end of world just most of it lol
I disagree millennials are not making headway. The boomers still have a firm grasp. The millennials won’t have enough time. They are going to miss the gap of possible influence.
@@tuckerbugeater I could be wrong but my impression is that the only consequence that the pre-millennial generations will feel is the subtle discomfort of rolling over in their graves. Meanwhile back on earth it’ social, economic, and spiritual disarray.
Whenever anyone says for the greater good, RUN!
Yes. The Term has been hijacked.
Neil wants you to die for the 4th Industrial Revolution
Adam, as a suggestion, bring Neil back and spend more time on wealth preservation during this crisis of 4th turning. I live in Midwest so we already live everyday close to family and friends helping one another in times of crisis
, as we never lost "real world relationships". However, most of us Midwest folks have our parents or grandparents stories of economic destruction during last 4th turning.. so please focus on wealth preservation during next interview with Neil.
The leader we need may not be the leader we think we want…
i want him, sir. think how fashionable we'd look.
Hitler promised to fix Germany after WWI and so they elected him. Idiots are here again. Echo.😮
how do you mean
Always the case
Xi Jinping?
One of the scary things about this is that the "younger" generations are already in their 30s with little hope for a rewarding career, home and many without new families. Even if you could decide not to spend away their future at this point, a good portion of it has already been spent and many are not well equipped for leading. I see Gen X who are similar to Millenials but had already entered and gotten established in the job market prior to the crash leading the way.
That's b.s. Get to work! They all expect to start at top pay grade, work from home, and dictate other terms.
@@emailsender7139
Agree.
It’s never since I came into the “workforce” in ‘76 to be Successful and SHINE!
What do I mean by that?
Show Up! Learn how do to your work. And ....Actually .... Do It!
Sheesh.
It’s not rocket science to look, and be ... Great! As a Head Chef for 45 years, it ain’t that hard!
We are nothing like millennials
@@emailsender7139 Lol. I have one full time, and one part time job and am earning my PhD and supporting a family (and working from home!). My pay is a little above industry standard. That said, most of my millenial friends work 2-3 jobs with liberal arts BA and MA degrees that their parents encouraged them to get and are barely getting by. My Zoomer coworkers have tons of side jobs and a very bleak outlook on the future with tons of anxiety and little hope. It is easy to blame lack of success on an individual as lazy, fragile, or entitled but when you have this happening in mass its time to look in the mirror and wonder what economic factors may have been at play in favor of you and your growth vs the generation you were supposed to raise (if you are a boomer).
That said, all very young people tend to have an over idealized outlook on what they "know" or what they might make at their first job (and tend to spend their money on stupid stuff if they do not live in a war zone). The problem is, concretely society has severely economically disadvantaged large numbers of the population we all need to have taken their place in society and ensured the next generation by now. A course correction is needed on the macro yesterday.
Could've summed these 2 hrs up in 3 words. Move to Thailand. Worked out great for Mark Faber. 😅
As you can tell I listen/watch almost all of your interviews. Without fail all are brilliant.
One small constructive criticism is that sometimes your guests use terrible microphones. So I have to turn the sound up when they speak but then have turn it down when you speak. Slightly annoying!
Politics is where the money is! Look at how wealthy our elected officials are becoming.
No kidding. I always tell smart young people that if they want to make big $, have a great job security, be able to fail upward and ok with living in DC area, politics or govt work is #1 opportunity in the country. Just have to willing to not care about we the people and be willing to sell your soul to the highest bidder.
I think the most honest comment I’ve heard from a 25 year old was: “My generation is just waiting for yours to die, then we’re going to fix the world” After I picked up my jaw, I said: “By the time I’m dead, you’re going to be about my age. Why don’t you start “fixing the world” now?”
He seems optimistic about the younger generations' "community" mindset, which has ominous socialistic undertones. Socialism in the US only leads to destruction and misery. Hopefully the younglings will focus on correcting the corporatism that is currently infecting capitalism, restoring some degree of balance to capital and labor.
I sadly agree with you. Right now the common perception of what went wrong is "capitalism" and not corporate monopoly power hand in hand with big government.
@@StormKingLand Good luck with that, as your government taxes you to death to pay for people who refuse to work. Or, perhaps you are one who refuses to work? Cooperation is essential for any society's success, but reducing everyone to the lowest possible outcome does not equal success. Regarding Star Trek, are you old school or next gen? Would socialism allow Kirk to have his cabin in the Sierras or Picard to have his vinyard in France? The answer is no....
As a millenial I see decentralized communities forming out of necessity, working toward energy and water independence through small self governing neighborhoods that rely less and less on imports for sustenance. Again this will be out of necessity as globalism becomes obsolete and undesirable.
@@Tidnull sounds inflationary, but that is what the necessary de-globalization will bring, inflation. My kids are mid-millennials, I’m gen-x, and I, like most I suppose, am beyond concerned about the fiscal dumpster fire the Fed and our incompetent politicians have delivered us. Good luck out there!
@@StormKingLand As someone wearing her Star Trek shirt right this second, Star Trek economics is not well thought out and cooperation is not antithetical to capitalism. It is to monopoly power. Now, this advice will only cost you 5 Starfleet credits. Cheers!
You had me at "Bad Batch". You summed it up.😮
whos the bad batch
@@wasdwasdedsfwe millennials are the bad batch because we don’t want the cleansing, cathartic, unifying nuclear war with Russia and/or China that Howe and the other neocons seem to be lusting for
John comes into his own fair play!
You guys do great work!
Thank you for helping to educate us!
Really appreciate it!
Fascinating discussion and really look forward to Neil's return. If possible, I'd love to hear him discuss the role of energy (and access to cheaper energy) as a dimension in previous turnings and how availability to fossil energy could impact how the fourth plays out. There is increasing awareness to social and economic challenges as Limits to Growth (and similar frameworks) and I'd be curious how demographics overlap the trajectory of our use of finite resources. Thanks again for a great discussion!
Great commentary on leadership. Fascinating narrative with an interesting smattering of historical and literary references. All in support of a narrative, of course, but one to which I subscribe. I can only hope that folks watching recognize the gravity of comments about "collateral damage" and just how severe the pain from such events will be. Let's not lose sight of literally millions of lives lost in past 4th turnings. Great leaders like Lincoln and Churchill oversaw mass destruction and human misery.
As gen x we've felt helpless and ignored the whole of our lives. First we were controlled by the boomers who never seem to retire and now the more numerous millennials are the ones in charge. What was our role? All of the deep thinkers I know are gen x but no one listens to us.
Zeihan talks a bunch about this. Boomers and Millennials are both *larger* generations than Xers, so Xers will tend to be outvoted. Your time is now, though, to start taking the reins of things as all the boomers are *finally* retiring. (Now we just need to get them to retire from political office too...)
We do tend to get caught in Cassandra complex, where we are not listened to. Maybe it is the X'ers time to shine and bring a better future to the next generations. I think it has to start with stripping some of the wealth from the boomers. They have had all the benefits, the tax breaks, the best opportunities. Time for them to help future generations and not be remembered as the generation who blew it all on self interest. I am in Australia and saw how the boomers voted down the removal of tax benefits like negative gearing and capital gains discounts, it was pure self interest.
Excellent Topic, thanks.
I get your point but.....boomers spent the last 20 years rebuilding retirement funds from criminal banks and stock holding companies adventures that nobody was prosecuted over.
Today we are taken advantage of by the real threat to the working poor and people dedicated to fairness......Blackroc , Vanquard and state sleet
Come to the dark side and become one of us ;) Or, Gen X always seemed like the cooler slightly older ones with all the stuff. There are large numbers of folks needing direction from the more experienced and think many Millenials and Gen Z want mentors and need to grow in competency and opportunity in their fields.
According to the new book, The Bubble that Broke the Bank, we are facing a triple alignment of financial disaster: The real estate crisis, the credit cycle crash, and distressed properties. These three crashes will be the basis of the financial foundations of the fourth turning. This will surpass the 2008 real estate crash.
The "Turnings" may be lengthening out, because generations have been living longer and remaining engaged.
TRUE QUALITY LEADERSHIP INVOLVES INTEGRITY.
I'm a conservative but when I think of someone who could be that type of great leader for the fourth turning, I think of someone like RFK Jr. The more I listen to that guy talk the more I like him. He seems so non-partisan and it actually feels like he genuinely cares about the state of our nation and the people in it. Not only that, he never gets baited into trash talking but stays focused on the course ahead, on the issues that really matter to the majority of Americans. I don't necessarily mean that "he's the guy" but I imagine it would be someone like him.
The benefit in all of the future prognosticators out there is that they can point out where things are likely to go if you don't do something to stop or change it. Humans are very good about seeing problems that are coming and acting to prevent that thing from happening. So, often what may happen never does.
Leaders are here, I’m the 2023 recipient of the Outstanding Leadership Award for Contributions in Ed and Learning and I’m on the shortlist of candidates for the Outstanding Visionaries Award, to be conferred in Dubai. Unfortunately we’re not packaged to fit the imagery based on the perceptions of what true leadership looks like-true leadership produces results. Todays leaders are authors of our own narratives. As Emerson writes, you don’t have to tell who you are because what you are speaks so loudly that I can’t even hear you. Peace.
Congratulations! and good luck on the Outstanding Visionaries award 😊
Neill Howe and (i apologize I've forgotten his fellow author) have accomplished great scholarship. However, his ability to prognosticate leaves a lot to be admired. I don't think history is determinist. What one generation does over another has to be much more nuanced that he suggests. I see the trend, but great actors either come from a deep understanding of the human condition, or become tyrants. I know that Neil understands this, but I 'suggest more nuance to the future. Just a thought - beware the coming of the brown/black shirts.
They could be wearing red hats or rainbow shirts... time will tell, but one thing for sure is that the good guys don't push their ideologies on any one. People should be free to adopt them as they see fit. The problem with 4th turning is that they can end in tragedies or genocides as we have seen so many times in past human history.
Whenever I hear him, I realize what a tragedy it is that Bill Strauss has passed.
@@JoeBlow-nh7mp indeed! the side who had the country stolen, provenly, by a vegetable authoritarian regime, and protested aroudn the capitol with only them being casualties by the state, with ZERO guns found, could DEFINITELY be coming tyrants...
@@JoeBlow-nh7mp i hope youre clear theres only one of those sides pushing their will an ideologies on the other... and its probably the one cheering for locking down the country for 2 years over a cough virus, and trying to push a batch of rushed untested chemicals onto their popluation under threat of force... while at one time 40 to 50% being in favor of locking up people if they didnt take it, or having their children taken from them
Audiobook?? Great! Hopefully with a better microphone 🎤
The first big red flag is that Howe never addresses what he got wrong in the 4th Turning from 1998. Though I believe in the saeculum, that we are in the 4th turning, and that Howe & Strauss got many things correct, I believe he is now blinded and cherry picking to fit his belief system. Thinking that FOMO is generational community oriented is absurd. The same with YOLO. Millennials are far from "group" oriented and socially altruistic. They're the generation of the "selfie" and YOLO and FOMO makes for a selfish society. Furthermore, not once does he take into account godlessness which is the foundation of our selfishness and the unraveling of our national unity. Having hardship in common isn't enough. We live in an increasingly Tower of Babel society. "The new world of freedom and science doesn't offer what purpose souls really need." From Father Zosima in The Brothers Karamazov by Dostoevsky. New rights have been created over time but we can't create new morals; they remain the same since the before the writing of Gilgamesh. Howe also underestimates and seems to disregard the effect of technology on Millenials; let alone the decreasing of beta waves and susceptibility to propaganda in constant alpha wave states. Things are far worse than he knows. Tyranny is growing, coming, and that would end the current saeculum(s) as we know them (from Anglo-American history).
Wow. Thank you for some great insight!
Just one more conversation to cause further division through generations rather than race, politics, class, sex (insert your preferred dividing term here). It's division that assures that the few in power will remain in power and they are sleeping well. The day the majority sees past the division tactics and begins to focus on those propagating it will be the day the powerful panic. It's closer than they think.
Well the division is caused by quite a conflict of value
The time to sell is not yet but will be soon. We have more upside first but be ready when it turns. It will happen fast.
Yield curve close to steepening. I wouldn't be hanging around much longer
@@DegenerateSpeculator Crystal balls of steel
Should have fixed the camera. Kinda hard to follow half a head.
same
What the heck? Hey @Wealthion - my phone seems to have autonomously reported your content. I’m listening on an old iPhone 6 that is strictly used and an iPod. When the battery is low, it skips ahead on content. So, my apologies. Not sure how to undo that.
I think 2024 is gonna be the year the shots heard round the world.
It would seem the real value of Niel's work is to get US to think along the lines that generaltional attitudes track with the Kondrative economic cycle. As to the timing, we need to look elsewhere - perhaps our own insights? Personally I think "feel" we are close to the most dramatic times where all hell breaks loose. All the fundamentals scream recession/depression yet it seems monsterous liquidity keeps the market and economy afloat. What will it take to empty the larder of liquidity. A new all time high in the markets with FOMO emptying pockets? Those few famous lines are appropriate here: "Slowly at first then all at once." "There are decades where nothing happens, then decades happen in a few months."
Close to being the most captivating interview I've heard on this channel. It was very insightful and provides a lot of historical context ... plenty food for thought.
Please make the next chat between these two 9:00:00
He uses the word nation, which we used to be a true nation, we are now multiple nations as all empires eventually become, and which is also what tear them apart as each of those nations want different things for their different peoples.
Just like in history, when things get hard, someone often steps up to guide us through. YES. Nice video!
I have Zero doubt that Neil has read each one of those books.
SUPER GREAT EPISODE! He should be one of your go to people to round out your for group as he brings the key perspective and expertise that rounds out the financial.
During a fourth turning just how bad is good...??? in the long run - Is a Nuclear War just the right amount of social adjustment ??? Because we just might find out this time we go too far - So understanding a fourth turning can help, but will we look back on this one and say I am glad I went through it !!! economic collapse, nuclear war, and political collapse, famine, pole shift and loss of the world wide electrical grid...take your pick. If you aren't prepping by now good luck you will not get through this fourth turning ( they are not always the same).
He's great! He's got the right ideas....
The audio version is really well done, nicely paced. Nice job Neil!
Is Neil suggesting that we SHOULD become less individualistic, or just that it is what he is predicting will happen?
I don’t know how he can lump all Millennials into one group and say we are all community oriented. I care about myself, my family, and my friends. I don’t want my taxes to pay for some lazy pieces of $hit that live 2,000 miles away.
Everybody will find their own Tribe.
@@l.a.mottern3106 Boomers are incapable of sharing their brokerage accounts.
He hints we should all join the BORG, in a non confrontational way. Henry Kissinger, say what?An Apologist for the world economic forum
@@l.a.mottern3106 Didn't that happen in the most recent 3T (1980s/90s)?
He wrote this book in 1998, that was 25 years ago. I’ll leave people on here salivating over his advice. have no idea how little he knows.
I learned my lesson over 40 years ago when Douglas M Casey wrote his ridiculous paper back on the coming. Great depression. 1982! It was actually the single best time in all of American history to buy stocks.😂
Well the crisis is clearly happening the question is how it will play out. But I'm sure people like Neil have already prepared the rich to respond to this crisis that's why they release the bio weapon
What’s missing is freedom of speech and no one seems to care-
Can anyone help me understand his views on resources and bonds. From what I understand gold bottomed in 6/1920, then really jumped right after 12/1929, then topped in 4/1934 then fell till 11/1970. Bond Yields as far as I can see from the Moody's Aaa bond history graph, bottomed in 1900, then topped in 1920, then bottomed in 1946. So if we are in a 4th turning like the one before and during WWII, then shouldn't we expect bond yields to go down? Or is he expecting bond yields to go down, bond prices to go up, but bond price appreciation to be eclipsed by money printing?
Strapped to the train, just along for the ride.
The stock market is a complex system that is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic indicators, political events, and global trends. The relationship between policies and the stock market can be complex and multifaceted, and it can take time for the full effects of policies to be reflected in market trends. Therefore, it is possible that policies implemented in the past may have a "lagged effect" on the stock market, as their full impact may not be felt until later on.
Start stacking sats before it's too late.
I wish I could put my finger on what the take away is from Howe and this drag on and on analysis.. It’s prepare for rough waters ahead, economically speaking.. Same.. Same.. Hunt, Snider, Henry, Rogers, Van Metre, etc..
All I get from these speakers is that they want to put fear into you and make you accept what is inevitable
Great points about Seniors. Govts have only planned aged pensions till 65/70 but are paying out into 100+. It's probably time we leave pension at 80 and self funded after that...
I can't help but to wonder if Howe has ever actually met a Millenial in the flesh.
He invented the term and now he's obsessed with his predictions coming true
Here’s what perplexes me.. the 4th turning giving rise to the 1st. The Yuga cycle has the Iron Age yielding to a new Bronze Age, then silver and THEN a Golden Age. It’s a long crawl out of the depths, rather than a pinnacle of civilization arising overnight from chaos and barbarism. But then again, God works in mysterious ways…
Let's talk solutions
Repeal the 19th Amendment and replace the current monetary system. Good luck getting elected with that platform though lol
Yes, all solutions too painful. So they won't happen. Instead a catastrophic blow up, and then more manipulation until it's all out of control. Then a reset because nothing is left to manipulate.
No lobbying and term limits
@@pavementstoneguy For sure but the 17th is key and much easier to digest and sell.
Start with breaking up the monopolys, severely limit gov subsidies, do sadly let the fake economy crumble by not artificially injecting it with more cash and raising interest rates (will affect more people like me negatively at first), and make industrial start up easier and mom and pop business start up easier with fewer regulations on them? Would actually love some critiques here. These are my brainstorming weeks.
Adam, Pons & Fleischman reported room temperature ("cold") fusion not a superconductor.
You're correct. I misspoke. I was confusing two different papers I wrote in my high school science class
FWIW, I'm just a tad bit older and I wrote one on inertial containment fusion being close to commercial use.
A great interview! Can you please add Neil's Substack link if you have it? Cheers
One reason that the older generations did things together was because they lived in smaller houses, so "home" was a place to rest between going out with friends for entertainment. What could you do at home, besides eat, sleep, and listen to radio. But TV gave people more entertainment at home, and homes got built larger and larger so family members weren't tripping over each other. And now we have UA-cam, which is far more informative and entertaining than TV, and smaller families. Many of us can even work from home (without working together with other members of the household).
Go further back in time and people earned a living from their homes. Homes were the center for economic opportunity. It would be interesting to see if some of the work from home trend ironically brings us back to an earlier period in some respects.
Last time we had a depression, then a world war. If it's gonna END around 2033...brace for impact
Just die for feminism and the next Generation to enjoy life
1929 and 1939-45 are equivalent to 2008 and 2020-2022. Already happened for the most part
Was just listening to Martin Armstrong, roughly the same time frame. You bring up government and civic duty. This should much like a direct democracy.
❤
I have two millennials. Worried for sure.
The good thing for America, as long as they are able to maintain their political three tiered structure, someone will step up and lead the nation back on track.
The world, as always, is changing... and this time from some huge metrics already on our doorstep. The big ones being the permanent demographic decline in population and the influence of some very powerful technologies. These changes are unstoppable and... that's a good thing anyway. The only problem humanity has, is the inability for our stupid leaders to even see these changes that are before us, let alone put in place a 10-20 year, globally coordinated, transitional plan to embrace these changes... all without war or any other human suffering. And this is because we do not yet have real Democracy; it hasn't been put into practice yet. In reality, all countries are under some sort of dictatorship. Only when we have a real democracy, where we can be governed by the collective brilliance of all people, will we have law, order and clever governance.
💯
Only when we have a real democracy, where we can be governed by a majority of wolves who have a hankering for grilled lamb chops,...
FTFY
So can we expect a Capex boom as money looks back inward and populism surges?
I'm from the US. This dude is way too US centric
Does anyone know more about the book Neil was refering to at about 25 minutes in? I can't find anything about it online.
www.amazon.com/Fourth-Turning-Here-Seasons-History/dp/1982173734/ref=asc_df_1982173734/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=598290856792&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=12458916280728567995&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9032360&hvtargid=pla-1868549492049&psc=1
Mr. Howe gives a nice account of, and some historical evidence for his generational theory, but I have always had a problem with the idea of assigning group status to children who are being born on a flat time curve, not a lumpy one. Obviously the Boomers represent a bubble in population growth in America, but otherwise children are born at a steady rate, pretty much. Therefore anyone attempting to cluster the population into separate groups has a problem - where do I draw my (let’s face it, arbitrary) line to separate one generation from the next? We can see that therefore the choice must be a fairly subjective one, since, as I said, objectively the population / date curve is pretty smooth. I believe in cycles in the weather and in real estate prices and a lot of other measurable groups, but the theory of generational characteristics is not one of those, is it?
I wish Neil would go on Rohan so that so many more will be exposed to the turnings.
I was like "who's Rohan" then I realised you meant Rogan.
Increasing competition over increasingly scarce resources along with
downward demographic trend - quite paradoxical, since per capita resource availability should effectively rise. Means that more and more would be hogged by fewer and fewer....can't sustain, come what may.
Kissinger is a horrible person imo!
I was surprised the way he talked about him. But, cannot deny that he’s a sharp politician. He was born 1923 - greatest generation? But did not serve, I don’t believe, like so many did then - sacrificed. He also didn’t marry until his 50s if I got the math right.
A decline of quality of the governance lol. Little late for that
you have one illegitimate old folks home patient who cant finish asentance, screaming like a certain mustache guy in front of a red white house, that the other side is the most extreme movement in the history of the country, and them being a threat to democracy... with the whole side making comments alongside of calling them domestic ter|s...
and you have them now actively prosecuting their opposition for counts that equates to hundreds of years in prison, with ZERO basis or evidence put forward
Nihao ✌🏼
Does the fourth turning only happen in America
This is a very developed narrative. But, a narrative nonetheless. I'm not convinced any of his pontification informs us on what's coming next.
Well the crisis is already here that's why they caused the great financial collapse did 9/11 and release the pandemic they will control you
Our upcoming presidential election tells us Mr Howe is right. It's TIME
its time for what? what does the upcoing presidential elections tell you?
you have one illegitimate old folks home patient who cant finish asentance, screaming like a certain mustache guy in front of a red white house, that the other side is the most extreme movement in the history of the country, and them being a threat to democracy... with the whole side making comments alongside of calling them domestic ter|s...
and you have them now actively prosecuting their opposition for counts that equates to hundreds of years in prison, with ZERO basis or evidence put forward
so i guess you mean that its time to vote them out
I don't get it. What's "the greater good", a republic or democracy?😮
As a Boomer I feel like filing a defamation lawsuit 😂
The jury will be filled of 14 people who dislike you. Good luck.
X Gen here and we are here to help the best we can... Every generation is important! Boomer's had good and bad characteristics... Some mistakes were made and good things came about for us all... You didn't know the future as we don't know our future either... Stay safe and be proud of your contribution to the world!
This makes me think of Vivek Ramaswamy
So two years as a congressman for Abe. Two years for K. Harris as well. So you are saying their's a CHANCE???
Not sure what to make of some of what Neil says. Sounds like he might be saying conformity, groupthink, obedience to authority, is the future? Are millennials creative and tough enough to lead? You have to be able to tolerate adversity. I don’t know. I hope they can reconnect with reality, be open to wisdom, and tougher skinned. You can be all this and still be kind, generous, and wise.
boomers will not be remembered fondly
Being a leftist, it's no surprise that this guy envisions a future (First Turning) that is more "inclusive" and "equitable". Everyone interprets the world through the prism of their ideology.
8:30 Certainly. Ramaswamy 2024.
Hahahahah
@@boomser911 argument
@@boomser911 name one problem with him. asside from not proclaiming how the 2020 was obviously a complete frau of an electi
He's an Indian Hindu with "Judeo-Christian" values. Clearly a weak gatekeeper. He won't go very far.
I interview RFK Jr. You’ll find it very interesting.
Bitcoin will flourish!
The "young" have no idea they are the lineage of a subjugated people. It will be nigh impossible for them to build.
Gold and SPY starts to diverge. SPY August down 15%. Gold outperforms SPY in coming months.
If the institutions will be in charge, does that mean a socialistic or communistic society?
Techno-Fascist Corporatism must be eliminated or you will not have anything near what the Founders & Constitution articulated for the country. You will not have the country you were promised, paying for, or worth living in.
Sorry, inspiration and innovation are not what come of collectivism
Look for a "great" leader to come forward straight from the books of Daniel and Revelation
The Soviet Union lasted over 80 years, I get we want to optimistic; but let’s get real if there was any near term hope we never would have got ourselves in this place in the first place.
We get the leadership we deserve. Look what the liberals did the Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. Then we will wonder why good leaders won't want to step forward for those types of positions. The same could be said of the lawmakers and President. It's a circuis.
Photo fit
Same story like 2022 just keep repeating it...
I think automation will take care of the demographic shift economically. The problem will be that it will only further concentrate wealth via the capitalism snowball. As a country, we will have to address the wealth inequality and potential unemployment somehow. I'm not sure if I have an answer for it, but I think it will be the biggest issue we will need to face in the coming decades.
AI and robots don’t pay taxes and are not consumers……..
A lot of these things are inverted. Modernity encourages barbarism and genocide through industrialization, nationalism, and totalitarian ideologies that cast the traditions of the past aside. Similarly, social media is actually promotes antisocial behaviour, when we view it through the prism of modernity. We think we are connecting to other people, and that might happen to some extent, but we do it at the expense of REAL, meaningful relations. As Rene Guenon said, we are living in a reign of a quantity. Only the numbers of things being produced go up. The actual quality of living, when we stop thinking like economists and scientists but actual philosophers, has gone down. That's the overall trajectory of this world as we get closer and closer to the end times, Kali Yuga, Qayamat, whatever you want to call it.
Xers and Xennials need to position themselves as sources of wisdom and guidance for the next generation . Millenials haven’t gone through the traditional learning structures X got to but are being forced into positions of management and leadership without having the experience to back it . Xers just have to melt a little of their colder exterior of every body’s wrong approach and take a educational/coach / mentor approach despite yes I know we all had to do it ourselves . 😂
Is this one a repeat
Did Neil just say the US wasnt committed enough to Mid East nation building and thats why we failed in Iraq and Afghanistan unlike Germany and Japan.
We were in Afghanistan for 20 years. How much blood and treasure does Neil think we should have spent?
I think its a good time to be young if there's a work crunch and low work force for alot of industries, if your a lets say young person getting into the trades or what ever , if everyone your age is going to school and old people are retiring its a perfect time to be a skilled worker .
Peter zeihan is really optimistic about it , idk the world will look very different in the future but north America will be fine , specially if the conservatives win the culture war . So its not the end of world just most of it lol
2
I disagree millennials are not making headway. The boomers still have a firm grasp. The millennials won’t have enough time. They are going to miss the gap of possible influence.
Millennials are lost Neil is just coping with his pet Theory and it's over
@@tuckerbugeater I could be wrong but my impression is that the only consequence that the pre-millennial generations will feel is the subtle discomfort of rolling over in their graves. Meanwhile back on earth it’ social, economic, and spiritual disarray.
I’ve been listening to mr Howe for years and he is extremely politicized, he used to tell us millennials would save us ! Now he’s back tracking
6th, 4 August 2023
Get Doomberg!