This has been an issue I have wanted to return to for quite some time. I remember watching the declaration of independence in 2017 with complete bemusement. As someone who works on secession, state creation and recognition, it was so obviously destined to fail. I just couldn't quite believe they had put themselves into such a corner. But where do things stand now? Is independence still on the table for Catalans? How do people in Spain feel about it? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments.
Spain's refusal to discuss independence is an "underlying issue" fueling desire for independence? Not really. Odd statement at the end of of your video, there. Anyhow, independence will never prosper because a majority of the population feels Spanish and half have roots in other parts of Spain. Its a non-starter. If they didn't succeed in 2017 when they had everything in favor, they never will.
What many don't know is that Greater Catalonia would be a lot bigger. Valencia would be part of it (Valencian is considered by many to be a Catalonian dialect, while centralists, in order to weaken the irredentism, consider it to be a separate language), smaller other bits and Andorra as well. I think even a small part of south east France as well. Catalonian irredentism.
12:10 the "strong sense of identity underpinned by history and culture" is a key aspect of most or all regions / 'autonomous communities' in Spain and this pluralism is a defining feature of the nation itself -- unlike countries like France which effectively suppressed identities and languages other than French (including Catalan) as part of its creation of national identity. Article II of the Spanish constitution actually formally "recognises and guarantees the right to autonomy of the nationalities and regions which make it up and the solidarity among all of them." So, in a nutshell, the multi-ethnic or plurinational nature of Spain 'has always been a thing'.
@@olliestudio45 agreeing with this statement, being from a federal country myself - Germany. What I think is another important factor here is that times literally change - mobility within countries changes, people from all over the country travel and move around. Gradually, regionalism weakens to an extent until it's not in conflict with national identity anymore. My great-grandmother might have seen herself as Swabian (Southwestern German) first, and German second, for my generation these two identities do not stand in contrast with each other anymore.
Thanks. Indeed! :-) Sadly, I’m finding that people are now so consumed by the big geopolitical issues that there seems to be less and less interest in these sorts of “side issues”.
As a Spaniard with strong connections to Catalonia, this analysis is... Lacking. However, the analysis seems to be made in good faith, so allow me to share more information that is crucial to understand all of this. The main problem with your analysis is that it makes it look like it's all about culture and national identity, but at the end of the day, that's more propaganda than anything else. The truth is Catalonia is not that particularly unique inside of Spain in that regard. The country as a whole is insanely culturally diverse, we have other languages inside the country that are as long lasting, if not more than Catalan, and also more removed from Spanish than Catalan is, and other regions have easily bigger historical claims to a theorical independence. At the end of the day, the Independence movement was more about one thing: money. By far, the biggest slogan of the Independence movement in 2017 was "España nos roba", or "Spain steals from us". As in, Catalans wanted to keep all of their taxes for themselves and only share them with the rest of the country on their own accord, instead of being redistributed by the Central Government, since they thought they were entitled to keep more money than they were receiving in comparison to the taxes they collected. The idea of sovereignty was just a means to that end. Very few people really had the rejection of the new Catalan statute in mind in this whole thing. In reality, Independence wasn't a response to historical grievances as much as an easy way out from the economic problems that Spain faced after the 2008 recession and the Eurozone crisis combo. Problem is, it was all a big ruse by Catalan politicians to stay in power. You see, the vast majority of government spending cuts in Catalonia were made by the regional government, not the the Central one. And they used the idea of independence in order to deviate the attention away from that fact, painting Spain as an anchor to Catalonia's foot that was squandering the region's economical potential. That's why their pleads for independence were pretty much ignored by the international community. It just rang painfully hollow at best and selfish and self-centered at worst. Not to mention it was also myopic. First, taxes aren't collected by region. They are collected on an individual basis. The reason why Catalonia is wealthier is because it has a lot of wealthy people tributing there. But these are a tiny minority of borderline oligarchs, not the region on average (there is an old saying that Catalonia is controlled by a 100 wealthy families). Also, the fact that during the country's industrialization, a lot of companies put their headquarters in Barcelona (NOT Catalonia). And of course, now that a lot, and I mean A LOT of companies have left the region since 2017, the overall wealth and tax return of the region has fallen dramatically. Which means that the illusion of Catalonia giving away more money to other regions than what they kept for themselves has lost A LOT of weight, since they give away less money than before, but they receive roughly the same amount as before in relative terms. There are more details that I'm leaving out, like the fact that disillusionment with the movement has a lot to do with people realizing the aforementioned politicians' ruse (the main reason why pro independence movement have fallen so much), or that Catalonia's true ultimate autonomy goal is to have something similar to the "Cupo vasco", the Basque Country's 500 year old special tax treatment, but you get the gist of it.
Saying that it's not a cultural thing is a common Spanish mistaken way of thinking, while the economic aspect of independent is important, it's mostly a cultural, ideological and self governance thing.
Now that you've done Scotland, Ireland and Catalonia, Professor, you are obliged to complete your list of independence movements by also doing Flanders! The European Parliamentary elections have shown a strong inclination towards, if not independence, at least even more devolution for the already devolved Belgium; which is to say a confederation! We haven't had one of those in the world for a while.
As a Flemish, I can only add that most people here vote for the two independence parties (NVA and Vlaams Belang) for their anti immigration stances. Most Flemish are against independence and that's why NVA is already shifting from secession to confederalism.
It’s highly unlikely that Flanders will gain independence because of the question of what will happen to Brussels. Brussels is in the middle of Flanders but it’s a Francophone majority city. The European Union and particularly France, will not allow Brussels to join Flanders. This makes it very awkward for those who want independence.
Polls have shown that there are just as much Vlaams Belang voters who want a stronger Belgian monarchy as there are Vlaams Belang voters who want Flemish independence. It's the racism and anti-woke far-right populism that attracts most Vl Belang voters, not the dream of independence. Concerning the NVA voters: most of them just want confederalism and total fiscal autonomy, not independence. There are of course pro-independence NVA and Vl Belang voters, but every poll has indicated they cobstitute no more than about 1/3 of them. So, that's about 15% of Flemish people who want independence. Foreign media tend to not be aware of this, and have announced 'the end of Belgium' after every single election in the last 2 decades.
I mean. A peak of 49% support isn’t great. Breaking up a state doesn’t seem to be the type of thing you’d want to do on a simple majority. Surely, if there was a vote, it would be reasonable to require 2/3. Forcibly separating half the local population from their country and identity isn’t particularly democratic.
@@tempejklwe had a referendum in Scotland on independence a decade ago and it was made clear that a simple majority would determine the result. No nationalist would have ever agreed to a vote where they needed 2/3 in favour for independence to actually happen.
I think this is a very good analysis, but it should be emphasized that even at the height of the procés (the 10-year-long Catalan attempt to secede), at least 50% of Catalans wanted to remain in Spain. This was never just Spain vs. Catalonia, but rather a conflict between the two halves of Catalonia: the pro-independence Catalans vs. the unionist Catalans.
Yeah... no, that's what some of you would like to happen! The conflict between Catalonia and Spain exists much before the start of the modern independence movement, as properly shown in this video. It's almost as if people keep wanting to believe that there has never been a problem. Quite interesting... and revealing...
The Catalan separatists do not have a strong case to argue that support for independence has been long-standing. There was majority support for the new Spanish Constitution in every region of Spain when it was ratified by a constitutional referendum in 1978. In Catalonia there was a vote of over 95% in favour of it, with voter turnout of about 68%. The ONLY region with any moral claim that the new constitution was not supported in that referendum is Basque Country. Basque separatists urged their supporters to boycott the referendum. Voter turnout there was less than 50%, of which about 75% voted in favour, meaning that only one-third of eligible voters there voted to support it.
That's still not a claim for the Basques because the Basque population was threatened by ETA to death if they dared vote against their interests. Most Basques didn't even live in the Basque region because they were persecuted out of it.
@@AFVEH sure dude, "most" Basques didn't live in the Basque Country. Whatever. Lots of people fled, but it is simply false (and insane) to say that the Basque Country suffered some sort of massive exodus. Is it really that hard to believe that Herri Batasuna was genuinely popular among some people? Is it really that hard to believe that the constitution was simply not very well received?
@oihanlarranegi472 Of course, it isn't hard to believe. Those who stayed are the ones who agreed with the Terrorists. But if you combine those who fled and those who stayed that opposed the terrorists that makes up a Basque majority. Obviously, talking about back in the day. Today, those pro-terrorists that stayed have bred and multiplied and washed the brain of the new generation. But to suggest that the majority of the Basques of before were anti-Spanish after historically being the most patriotic region is ludicrous. And to suggest that the majority of the Basques of before were in favor of terrorism shows a very low opinion of Basque culture.
The Kurdish and Catalan independence referendums-held just a week apart-showed how unrealistic the majority of separatist movements are in the face of centralised states that need them economically. What both movements have or had in common was that their own indigenous economic drivers (oil and tourism respectively) would be a means for a poorly thought out statehood that was never to be,
Thanks Derek. You are absolutely right. Most are unrealistic about how incredibly difficult it is to break away from established states. Everything is weighted against them. But one can also understand why people see it as attractive, especially in states that deny them the right to choose. (Spain is actually at the better end of this spectrum. Pro-independence parties are allowed to exist, even if Madrid refuses to allow a vote on secession.) I’ve often felt that Spain should have been more open to the idea. The problem is that once you concede one vote, it then potentially becomes a regular occurrence. And there’s also the danger than you open the way for calls elsewhere, a very real concern for Spain.
@@JamesKerLindsay I cannot agree more. I was living in Barcelona and working in Erbil at the time and so by happenstance lived through both vividly (my flat was across from the Catalan parliament when I returned from the disastrous KRG referendum) but I couldn't help but recall the Ichkeria movement for Chechen independence from Moscow under Yeltsin and how Putin used its failure to gain power. All the skeptics talk of "ok but how how will a landlocked independent Chechnya export its oil?" etc.
Yes same Ukraine , Donbas, Moldova, Gaugazia etc. Its actually common. The idea of country nationalism is new, lots of people consider identity to be the language, culture, ethnicity or religion.
As a spaniard I must say with all due respect that catalonian independentism is far from over. I should say, in fact that it now has higher chances of succeding than it has ever had, with more radical independentist party ruling the regional parliament and the main independentist leaders being now able to decide wether the government is functional or not based on how the spanish parliament works. This may seem strange to outsiders, but catalan independentism is now one of the dominant faction of the spanish state.
Thanks. I completely agree. As I said, I think the most significant problem is that Madrid refuses to discuss a vote. Having followed this issue for over a decade, this always seems to have been the greatest driver of pro-independence sentiment. Many people don't want to break away, but they hate being told by the central government that they aren't even allowed a democratic vote on the matter.
@@JamesKerLindsay A democratic vote entails every spanish citizen having a say in the matter, which means seccession would never happen. I'm down for such a referendum.
@@joaquingonzalez5095 That is the logic of an abusive husband deciding his wife is not allowed to ever leave. I presume most Catalonians would be sufficiently pragmatic to be willing to stay a part of Spain if the arrangements gave them enough autonomy and allowed for a distinct regional identity. Castillians pronouncing that it is all good won't solve the problem.
In the current geopolitical context (security threat by Russia, security dependence by the US), it becomes clear that further fragmentation of Europe may not be a very good idea, while other formulas of limited self-rule exist...
Quite frankly it was absurd for separatists leaders to claim that somehow they could just unilaterally declare independence and the EU would just roll with that and accept them as a new member. That fact that Andorra, a catalan speaking microstate, expressed its support for Spain refusing to recognize the "independence" of Catalunya added a comical tone to the this whole fiasco.
Stop that clownery. Try voting while being intimidated by the central government. If it would have been approved by Madrid, the turnout would have been much different.
42% turnout indicate 58% who didn't vote likely leaning towards staying with Spain. Therefore if the referendum was mandatory, Stay would have won in a landslide
Just found your channel and I have been binge watching your very interesting topics, I live in Cyprus have done for over 20 years, and I feel more at risk in the last couple of year because of the military base giving much needed aid to those in trouble and because of our proximity to most of the danger areas.I don't want them to stop giving aid but without doubt it definitely puts Cyprus in to troubled waters giving enough that tensions are elevated in most areas around us.Yhankyou for your very interesting content.
Hi Anita, thanks so much. I am really glad you are finding the videos interesting. Always really nice to hear. Things are certainly getting a lot more tense in the region. I also live in Cyprus now. It definitely feels more more uncertain, especially as tensions are increasing in Lebanon. Let’s hope things calm down.
Subscriber here from Spain. A very good analysis, with some caviats: 1. The reason for not holding a referendum of independence is simple, to change the constitutional status of Spain a referendum needs to be done in the whole country according to the current constitution, approved in 1978 with the support of most Spaniards, including Catalans. 2. The amnesty declared by the current Spanish government was done to get the votes needed to get Sanchez elected as PM. But that law is now under review by the Judiciary and there are serious doubts about its implementation. Simply put, the Executive branch cannot really tell the Judiciary what to prosecute and what not as it breaks the principle of equality against the law (just because I'm from Catalonia I'm not judged against a law that would affect me if I'm from Murcia, for example) 3. Many of the people who supported independence in the 2010s did so because of a decentralised education system that invents Catalonia as a repressed independent nation that also expands into Valencia, Ballearic islands and the south of France. Yes, Catalonia may have been de facto independent a millennium ago, but the truth is that Catalonia after that has never been independent, not even under the Crown of Aragon. Even during Franco, Catalonia was at the centre of Spanish manufacturing industry promoted mainly by the central government and Catalans were free to use their language at home, although the whole education system was in Castillian Spanish only. 4. All that said, support for the current socialist Spanish party has increased in Catalonia where they now have the highest vote percentage in all of Spain, whereas in Andalucia or Extremadura they've now been surpassed by conservatives. Should a general election be called, it's highly doubtful that they'll be able to form a majority and the Constitutional Court may declare the amnesty null and void anyways.
" Yes, Catalonia may have been de facto independent a millennium ago, but the truth is that Catalonia after that has never been independent". Well said! This is the same reason why Morocco should stop talking about Ceuta and Melilla: They are Spanish. The people there are Spanish, and they have been so since time immemorial.
@@seneca983 I think it would be discussed much less if Gibraltar didn't keep harbouring the funds of Spanish criminals and mafia. If they accepted their status as a just little town connected to the rest of Iberia and stopped allowing companies to avoid paying tax in Spain, people would be much less annoyed and probably forget about the whole issue.
@@solsunman383 I don't think I've heard the Spanish government say that they would accept British sovereignty even conditioned on resolving those issues.
@@seneca983 True. But it would no longer be as popular topic to chat about in Spain, so the government would have less insentive to push it. You would also have less people commenting about it in youtube comment sections!
This is really good balanced analysis highly recommended to outsiders wanting to understand this complex issue. A couple of notes: the decline is percentage for pro independence parties in latest elections is in part explained by the rise in abstentionism. Also, the peak of parliamentary support for independence parties was in 2021 elections where it reached 52% of the vote.
Actually, it was lower at 50.12% of the popular vote, while voter turnout affected by Covid was historically low at just 52%. Compared to previous elections, the 3-party independence block lost substantial vote-count -- no mandate could be claimed from the 2021 results.
@@BillsCultureHour The video states that the peak of vote share for pro independence parties was in 2017 at 49%. That is not correct since, as you point out, in 2021 the vote share was of 50.12%. Although with such low turnout a mandate could be of course claimed and so a pro independence government was formed.
@@carlosaviles9400 No mandate can ever be claimed on a 50.12% result. If a pro-independence gov't was nonetheless formed in 2021, it was due to electoral math which disproportioanately favors rural areas where secessionist sentiments are stronger. In terms of parliamentary seats, 55% (74 of 135) were alloted to independence parties, a skewed outcome that has repeated itself several times in modern Catalan elections.
I grew up in Barcelona and saw first hand all the 2010s developments. Although I no longer live in Barcelona since about a year ago, I’m still very informed about the local reality and feeling in the air, regarding this. As always, and as a fellow subscriber of your channel for almost 2 years so far, I think that the whole summary of the situation leading to the current events and the subsequent analysis you made is brilliant. However, I would like to point out some extra factors that may play against the Catalan independence movement in the long term, and may be hard to tackle for them: 1. The decrease in the usage of Catalan language among the Catalonia’s youth, specially in the city and metro area of Barcelona. 2. Globalization is over-promoting Spanish more than before. One close friend of mine, all-life supporter of independence, thinks that the Catalan language may become extint by 100 years (surprisingly, he didn’t seemed particularly affraid of that). 3. Catalan is no longer seen as a prestige language in the region of Catalonia, as was the case from the 1960s to the 1990s. Historically, the blue-collar Southern Spainiards that would migrated to Catalonia to work in factories, would encourage their children to speak Catalan so they could easily mingle with the local Catalan white-collar children. Catalan is no longer seen as that, at least not in Barcelona (the most populated region). You can see this phenomenon of Catalan being a prestige language in smaller towns, 40 km away from Barcelona. In Barcelona and other big populated areas, more and more professionals and college-graduated people from all over Spain and Latin American can be seen, and they normally do not learn or even less use Catalan on a daily life basis.
I have a question: how can a given region gain independence from a country if this country's Constitution states that any attempt to break away is illegal and unconstitutional?
Great question. Many countries have this sort of provision. Ultimately, it reflects a democratic culture. Constitutions can be changed (although it is hard). If a country is open to the idea of a referendum then it can find a way around it. But few do. States hate losing territory and so introduce safeguards like this. It makes secession even more difficult, but in almost every country it’s a mountain to climb anyway. The issue I have is that this creates conditions where the whole country must vote on independence. This goes against principles of self-determination. It should be the self-determination unit that votes on it, not the entire country.
@@JamesKerLindsay how small do you think the self-determination unit can be before it’s unreasonable? The limit being individuals, but sovereign citizens are obviously absurd. But could, say, Barcelona alone secede?
@@JamesKerLindsay Part of the problem with this approach is that, as difficult as it is to separate a nation, it's actually almost impossible to put it back together again. There are almost no cases of regions that have declared independence re-joining again. This means that if, say a large percentage of the population boycott a vote, or the youth which may have voted otherwise but were too young at the time, the nation will become independent and disenfranchise them with no means to undo it. This is the problem with something like Brexit (which wasn't even a proper independence). You also run into issues of large loyalist majority areas (such as in Kosovo or Northern Ireland). Should these areas also be allowed to choose their future? What if they are non contiguous, such as Sønderborg in the North Schlesvig plebiscite? The city voted to remain part of Germany, but was surrounded by areas that voted to join Danmark. It would have become an expensive enclave, if it and other cities had remained German. Another, less popular, concept is the disproportionate division of population and infrastructure. Two examples spring to mind. When Austria-Hungary dissolved, most of the population was located in Vienna. However, most of the food was grown in the Hungarian half of the kingdom. Additionally, port infrastructure (and therefore imports) was now located in Yugoslavia, whilst most heavy industry was in Czechoslovakia. The net result was that Vienna starved. Without a hinterland to supply the city, Austria fell apart. (This was one reason why Anschluss was so popular in the aftermath of WWI). A more recent example would be the independence of South Sudan, where oil resources were located in the South, but refineries and ports to export oil were in the North. (Of course, one could say that all this could be avoided with a simple amount of common sense and goodwill. Sadly, those are almost never a guarantee in international politics.) In truth, self-determination is a heavily flawed concept, that is undermined consistently by questions of practicality, potential economic hardship and even democracy. This is why autonomy is such a popular alternative. It's much easier to adjust the status of autonomy from within the larger nation (both to increase or decrease, depending upon popular will). It also allows an autonomous region to maintain enclaves and exclaves, if necessary, or even be totally surrounded by the parent nation without the messy business of passport controls. As such, I would argue that self-determination, like democracy itself, is an idea that needs to be tempered by the state, rather than adopted in any simplistic form. Just because independence could be the will of the people right now, it doesn't make it the right course when it comes to practical application.
The two countries (Portugal and Spain) have been constantly on opposite sides and have been separate for almost a thousand non-consecutive years. That's more than most countries even exist... Is it really surprising that they are still apart, in the present?
@@salciano the third biggest party in portugal (and active governing the second biggest city of portugal (Oporto)) is a pro Portugal -Spanish Unification Movement So... maybe we can see a spanish portugal unification
@@mastrey It seems you mixed something up. Currently (Legislative Elections of 2024), the 3rd biggest party in Portugal (Chega) is a right-wing one, characterized by staunchly xenophobic, nationalistic, euro-skeptic views. Trust me, the last thing on their minds is unification with Spain. Maybe you should check or name your sources? There seems to be no party fitting your description...
No it isn't. The movement of "Catalanismo" is that old not independence. In its origin, the Catalanist movement wanted to Catalanize Spain, meaning to put more Catalans in the central government. It wasn't about de-spanishizing Catalonia or independence like it is today. The name and movement has been hijacked.
I'm Catalan and lived through those years. Here's my opinion: Catalans certainly have a distinct national identity. We have our own language, cuisine, folkloric dances and every other aspect you could desire to make a distinction in. We are a nation inside a state dominated by the Castilian-Spainish. I certainly do understand that there is a legitimate reason for secession. On the other hand, Catalunya as part of Spain has so much deep history. From the reconquista to the civil war of 36 all the way through the empire in America, we Spanish have left a lasting impact on civilisation. My historic loyalty and admiration for this country we are part of prevents me to desire independence. I must add one thing which is controversial but ultimately true: Every modern independent candidate in Catalunya states that a foreigner can become Catalan. If Catalunya has to play a part in a cosmopolitan globalist world where nation states disappear in favor of economic administrative zones, i see no need to form a new and independent state, we might as well be under the Spanish flag whis is already doing that. Formulated in a different thought: nationalism for the sake of political relevance but ultimately to no avail for the actual nation.
All the Autonomous Regions in Spain have their own history, culture, gastronomy, way of being, folklore...All regions could claim independence. I am from the Canary Islands. Here there are also people that want to be independent. But even if we are different we have something in commun and it's that we are Spanish, we share the same culture, idiosincrasy, that can not be denied. I met a Catalonian girl and became friends when I was living in Scotland and she was always being contradictory with her feelings: sometimes extremely proud to say that she was Spanish and sometimes angry at Spain. I used to tell her when she was talking with hate, listen you are talking about me.
I would say that demographically, the independence movement already peaked, and it is slowly but steadily eroding. Basically, the most pro-Independence demographic are those that came of age in the 80’s and 90’s, and grew up in pre-digital era, where everyone was consuming the same set of facts and opinions, particularly TV3 and other local media, at the same time speaking catalan was in a way an act of rebellion, and certain sense of achievement, idealism and pride unified propelled Catalanism after Franco and the 92’s olympics. Nowadays, the very darwinistic nature of internet, has been relegating Catalan to a very testimonial role, when compared with the behemoth that is Spanish. For new generations, Catalan may feel as an imposition. Spanish is ‘cooler’ as that is the language of memes and influencers. With the language comes different viewpoints and opinions. With the fragmentation of the media landscape, institutional catalanism have lost influence over the narrative. Compound that with migration, declining birth rates in the rural parts of Catalonia, that traditionally support independence, and the future is bleak for the movement in the long run.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate the extra insight. It is fascinating how the demographics of independence movements work. In some cases, it’s very youthful driven. In other cases, it is an older age group - although they do usually say that people become more conservative with age. But it is fascinating that you mentioned the Olympics. I have come to the view that Brexit was driven by the 2012 London Olympics. Although it was meant to be a symbol of international cooperation, for a certain demographic it became a source of very particular national pride then translated into nationalism. “We don’t need the EU, we’re British.” It is really interesting to think this may have fed similar sentiment in Catalonia. There’s perhaps something to be written on this!
Yes. The internet and preponderance of Spanish in internet media and its influence on youth is totally a determinant factor in the decline of the Catalan independence movement. Actually, the Generalitat government is willing spend millions in promoting Catalan in the social media landscape. Also, the declining birth rates plays a role.
@@JamesKerLindsay Well, part of the ethos of catalanism, revolves around the idea of being more cosmopolitan, ‘european’, and progressive than the rest of Spain. Therefore, the success of the olympics somehow validated that pov, and made catalanism viable even in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, historically dominated by the socialists. That in turn, led towards an excessive idealization of the EU and the international community. There was this idea that if independence was declared, the EU would force Spain to accept it, like a knight in white horse rescuing a damsel from an ogre. The reality turned out to be way different. Even if some EU governments and ppl, might have sympathy for their cause, not many really thinks of Spain as a monster either. After all, Spain is one of the most consistent pro-EU, progressive countries in the union. Beyond the self-determination issue, not many in their sane mind, would think of one Europe’s richest region as “oppressed” people in need of saving. That also helps explain why the socialists have gained its allure back in the Barcelona metropolitan area, once the waters calmed down, and Spain is ruled by one of Europe’s more progressive leaders, the socialists got the largest plurality of the vote in Cat since 1982. That doesn’t mean that things can’t change, particularly if you get a right wing government in Madrid. But even if that happens, it is not clear that a Catalan reaction would articulate on a national axis, instead of right-left one.
THIS!!! I was thinking 'the younger generation who grew up in internet and social media age overwhelmingly seeing themselves as part of the broader national or even international whole instead of regional group can't be helping the secession movement'.
@@JamesKerLindsay not really. is not about tv3. or do you think that the spanish tv's dont reach catalonia? there is only one channel on catalan, hundreds in spanish. Why? because spain prefers the catalan language to disappear. has always been seen as an inconvenience, because.. "if we all know spanish, why do you need to speak catalan? dont we understand in spanish already?". the point is.. if you check on catalan speakers, the vote opinion on the issue is nearly at 100% in favour of independence. there is an ethnic side on this. During the franco era, franco favoured the move of millions of spanish to catalonia, people who, after many decades here, refuse to learn or speak catalan. they used to say "speak to me in christian" when they heard someone speaking catalan ("háblame en cristiano"), or to call "polish" to native catalans (as a kindly reminder about what happened to the ghetto of Warsaw). in the last decades, spain has favoured mass migration specially in catalonia, where, with fertility in negative numbers, and a population of 6 million (already splited between spanish and catalans), 2 more millions have arrived. So catalans are now a minority within their own region, and even so they have not stopped to speak catalan against all odds, this inmigration (specially from latin america, who already speak spanish) has no need to learn or speak catalan: all tv's are in spanish (except one), all movies in theaters, everything. they just dont need it. and the existing catalanophobia in spain does not help either. is partially a miracle that independentism would grew so much, because that means that even a significant part of the spanish inmigration stablished in catalonia has seen that is the best choice: it goes beyond ethnics (where ethnic catalans are almost unanimously in favour of independence), but also a good chunk of the spanis inmigration who has integrated in the catalan society in several degrees has seen as the only correct decision.
I live near Tarragona in Catalonia. On the surface, independence seems to be on the back seat, but underneath, the feeling is alive and well and there isn't much needed for the whole thing to come to life again. A lot of seperatists are dissapointed over what happened, but that didn't turn them away from the idea of an independant catalonia. In your historic overview there are some issues with the dates. For instance, Franco died in 75, not in 72. Not mentionning the spanish succession war and 1714 is a big mistake. That's when Catalonia lost all autonomy for centuries to come.
Thank you. Great points. I actually had a whole section on the war of the Spanish Succession. The trouble with these types of videos is that it’s really easy to become bogged down in too many details. Sometimes I just have to cut things that are really interesting but not strictly necessary. Saying that its autonomy was gradually eroded was sufficient. But you’re absolutely right to point out that that was the moment when things changed. (I also had a bit about the complexities of Catalan-French relations.)
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you for taking the time to read my comment and answer, very much appreciated! 1714 is pivotal and the memory of it still very much alive; in 2014 the entire year was dedicated to it with institutional ceremonies and events. But that's something I saw living here. I appreciate that you have to make choices while editing your videos and you can't leave everything in. And now that I have your attention: thank you very much for the content you're creating, it allows me to educate myself about a lot of situations I wasn't well aware of.
We spent a week in Barcelona in May 2023. We observed a strong sense of national pride but the independence movement seemed quiet. The Catalan language is widespread, and is used in schools.
@@sergiogcollado No, it's only forced to be spoken in catalan class. Aswell as spanish it's forced to be spoken in the spanish class. The language that it's beimg imposed is spanish, because it's a foreign language in catalonia
@@sergiogcollado In catalonia, the cooficial language is spanish and the official is catalan. However, it doesn't matter which is cooficial and which is oficial because they're still official in the same level. This doesn't mean that spanish is a native language of Catalonia, as it's only spoken as a mother language by people who descend from or are immigrants of the rest of Spain. Saying this doesn't mean that I hate the rest of Spain, it's just a fact.
Thanks for the interesting Video!As a Former student of political science with a focus on IR and global Governance I would love to watch videos of you with a strong theoretic focus, instead of a strong case focus
Thanks. I know that some would prefer me to take this route, but the channel was actually developed as a result of my long held view that too many IR scholars are obsessed with theory, but not how the world actually works! Seriously, I am often depressed at how many who teach IR seem to have little interest in the world around them. I always wanted to look at practical examples of what we were talking about in class. This is the end result. 😀
@@JamesKerLindsaythat is a valid argument, however a theoretic Video could help you watchers to make their own conclusions on a variety of cases. A Deep analytisch on one case is limited to its borders
Thanks. That’s why I have a section at the beginning where I do a bit of light theory. I am presenting a problem in IR and explain I’ll look at own case. But hopefully it invites viewers to look at others. But I know what you mean. The problem is that more theoretical topics just don’t do well. It costs a lot to make these videos - in time, effort and money (equipment, subscriptions, software, etc.). Low views means that I earn nothing from the videos - except for the limited income on top that I earn from the kind generosity from channel members and Patreons.
@@JamesKerLindsaythe critic on the Academic ivory tower is valid, but theories can be aplied to many cases, but no case repeats Ursels completly. In my studies I had learned the grand theories and some middle ranged ones. The latter are far more useful, but can have unintended concequences. E.g. I see Paul Pierson‘s and Mahoney‘s theories of path depency everywhere, ever since I had applied those in my M.A. Thesis. Therefore, I have developed a pretty predeterministic view on things, even though I know, that that is not the case
@@JamesKerLindsay do you know the UA-cam Channel of @William Spaniel? He is also an IR/IPE scientist on UA-cam. In the past he had published many videos on Game theory in the international relations. Now it is always on Ukraine. I guess, that he also made the experience, that those videos receive a higher audience
Great video - as always! I think support for independence from a stable, prosperous democracy is nearly impossible to sustain for long enough to see it happen. It's a very different story when independence is a matter of life and death, as it is in an unfortunate number of places around the world. I never really paid a huge amount of attention to Catalonia, so thank you for the update!
if you go to any part of Catalonia, you might notice its not so much a defeated Independence, but just one put on hold and leaderless, as the vast majority of flags you will see anywhere in Catalonia is the Separatist flag.
@@sergiogcollado That's not true. Catalans, whether pro-independence or pro-Spain, tend to get along quite well. Even in the midst of the whole conflict, people would tolerate each other. Go with a Spanish national shirt in Catalonia, and nothing will happen. Go with an independence flag or even a normal Catalan senyera in Spain... well, not so sure.
@@bernatrosell1265 I can attest to that. I lived in Barcelona for a little over two years and whenever I wore my Spanish national team shirt, nothing happened to me. No insults, no violence, nothing. However, it should be said that Barcelonians are pretty divided on the issue of independence. If I had worn my Spanish national team shirt in a place where most people are pro-independence (such as Vic or anywhere in the Girona province) something bad might have happened to me.
@@jaytelfer3984 Nothing would have happened to you, of course. The worst possible scenario is that you get a nasty comment from someone, but even that is unlikely. We are used to living together, despite having different political opinions and aspirations. If you don't provoke, disrespect, or insult anyone's sensibilities, people are chill, even in predominantly pro-independence municipalities. Catalonia is quite peaceful, and aggressions overwhelmingly come from pro-Spain fascist individuals.
@@sergiogcolladoI don't see Vox, Ciudadanos, or PP being that silent, to be honest. Nobody is forcing anyone. We are a bilingual society with two (actually three) official languages, and we are lucky to be able to grow up speaking several languages. Why is that a bad thing? It's funny how some people would like Catalans to be monolingual. The only reason for wanting people to be monolingual is nationalism; otherwise, it makes no sense. If you were Catalan, you would know that the immersive system in Catalan is flawed and that many schools use Spanish when teaching and addressing students. But let's pretend that's not happening, that everything is in Catalan. The school is the only safe space for Catalan to thrive and, again, to ensure a bilingual society, which everyone not stained by nationalism would agree is better than being monolingual. I would be okay with a 50%-50% ratio, as long as we apply the same ratio to all other domains. Would you be up for it? :-) We love languages, do you?
This isn't the 90s anymore. There are simply too many International interests tied up in the Europe union now to let any new independence movements succeed. Maybe post brexit UK but even that's pushing it.
@@JamesKerLindsayI still think you are heavily biased towards western Europe and America while your choice of words reflect your bias when you talk about unfriendly countries to the West
This reminds me of the situation of Quebec in Canada. I do wonder about the turnout. Can such a measure be considered successful if less than 50% of the electorate participated?
@@JamesKerLindsay with a turnout of 50%, given that with a 43% there was a 90% in favour of independence, the option for the secession (even given that the other 7% would have voted against it) would have won. the point is.. in a referendum where everybody can go to vote, you can't give more importance to those who decide to not vote (so you dont know their opinion) than to those that decide to go to vote. Are the ones who go to vote that count. and, given the circumstances, a 43% turnout was a really high one. if i remember correctly, the brexit referendum had even lower turnout, and they were not under any threat of police violence for voting. and no one said that, since the turnout did not reach 50%, the referendum was not valid. dismissing a 43% turnout so easily does not seem very ethic to me, .. while i know that was on of the pivotal points of the spanish argumentation.
An interesting contrast to Scotland and the United Kingdom: a lawful and free independence vote with open debate led to defeat. Yet opinion polling appears to show an ebb and flow of support depending on various issues both inside and outside Scotland. My feeling has long been that Scotland will eventually become independent but, unlike Catalonia, I can see the argument growing more difficult to make.
A few years ago I had a business meeting over the web with a customer based in Barcelona. I started out by saying, in Catalan - which I'd looked up, and rehearsed - that I was sorry I don't speak Catalan, but I hope we have a good meeting anyway. The guys in Barcelona were ecstatic, to hear my few mangled Catalan phrases. They said I had to come and visit in person, they would give me the best tour of Bacelona and Catalonia!! Sadly I still haven't made it, but I vividly remember their utter joy at hearing their culture acknowledged. It was way beyond polite pre-meeting chitchat, it was like I'd been adopted as an honorary Catalonian citizen. Made a big impression on me. So I'm not giving up on Catalonian independence, just yet ...
Catalonia in part suffers from the Scottish problem. When those in Madrid most likely to come to an accommodation are in the ascendancy support for pro independence parties reaches a low. Conversely when those that ignore regional concerns are in power the pro independence parties get a surge on support but then the regional government can't achieve their stated goals. I think their best hope lies in greater devolved powers or federalism, they need to seek allies in other regions. Equally the centre needs to find a way to accommodate Catalonian desires whilst minimising the risk to the state, this probably requires a degree of constitutional reform.
Scotland is an existing kingdom within the UK, and Catalonia has never been an existing kingdom, but a depending county. Thus, Scotland case of independence would and could be taken in consideration, while Catalonia's case is just absurd.
@@rafaeltemplario Catalonia was a principallity within the crown of aragon and had it's own institutions and parliment. It was de facto independent aswell as the kingdom of valencia and the kingom of mallorca. The Crown of Aragon was a very descentralised state
🙏🙏🙏🙏 I’m married to a Spanish 👸 .., travel to Fayon… (battle of Ebro) on the border with Aragon.. Profoundly interesting and sadly.. her forebears fought each other.. families against families…. Just how lucky I am to be born this period.. & in NZ🇳🇿
Thanks. It is always interesting to consider how countries once fought within their current borders and yet can coexist today - albeit sometime rather uneasily. The same obviously applies to England and Scotland.
@@JamesKerLindsay lol we did a tour of Scotland in 2019.., man there’s a real/ wonderful? chip on shoulder up there…, end of 3 weeks I hated the English as well😂, I’m English / Irish… Then there’s NZ being a bit o unicorn/ simple/ young.., but that’s if you ignore our wars of colonialism.. Great vids🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
@@JamesKerLindsay Your vids/ our visit to Fayon.., reminds me of our Ww2 mum.. tells us complaining kids.. “quiet now… you don’t even know you are alive….. nothing to complain about” As an adult it has me think of her huge empathy .., having watched Europe & our Pacific burn… from her small NZ homeland… I see now that the suffering in Ww2 was beyond comprehension 🌹
@tigertiger1699 Thank you. This is so true. It is easy for us to forget. This is the problem. As the WWII generation has left us people no longer have a living tie to the human tragedy of the war. Interestingly, in 2016, the WWII generation in Britain in fact broke for Remain. My grandmother, a physio nurse during WWII opposed leaving. And I met a soldier from the war on the morning of the vote who passionately opposed Leaving. They knew the damage of the war and the benefits of European unity. They would be horrified to see the rise of the far-right!
@@JamesKerLindsay Mate….. so true.. i understand the Māori have a saying “we are all in the Waka (canoe) together” And a Māori Chief/ King said of the most important thing “it is people, it is people, it is people” Surely we must stand against what is happening to Ukraine…, as you say.. that generation learnt the hard way .. the cost of appeasement 🌹
Both in Catalan and Scottish independence movement soldier on , but even with majority for independence, it would still leave 40% + of the people wanting to stay in Britain and Spain respectively. As the disastrous UK referendum in 2016 to leave the EU with a tiny majority has solved nothing and created major economic and division problems and resentment on both sides. Home rule max by all means, but independence is a false project.
Well, if you cannot get international recognition on independence from other countries, it means absolutely nothing. Look at the states that constituted the Confederacy during the American Civil War in 1860s.
Thank you! I thought it was appropriate. 😀 Were they OK? I used Google translate. It seems quite good these days. But some languages are better than others.
An interesting detail to add is that there's a notable geographic divide between more metropolitan and coastal zones compared with rural and less dense ones, with each being against and in favour of independence respectively. As for the latest regional election, you oversimplified things quite a lot by not mentioning how many seats each party got. It would have also been good to mention the Spanish constitution's rule of not allowing separation and how it conflicts with the UN's principle of self-determination (something rather common in many countries). In the 2017 referendum I see a lot of people forgetting to mention the police, quite literally, stealing ballots from people's hands and firing plastic balls to protesters and having conflicts with the regional police. It was a crackdown more brutal than what we usually see in other protests. Overall, while the summary is correct, it remains too superficial and doesn't talk in more detail about the actual leverage each faction had during the events.
You didn't mention two important things that matter here. Because Catalonia has the strong economy, it attracted the most immigrants. Today only about half the population is actual catalonian. The rest is from other provinces or the Americas (only speak Castellano) or from non- Spanish- speaking countries. (speak Castellano as a second language) The catalonian independence- movement was mostly driven by the same as brexit; propaganda and mislead feelings. It lacked the same; facts and a plan. In addition the supporting parties were politically as disrupted as the rest of Spain is. (unlike the Scots) Even the most battle harded and stubborn separatist couldn't but notice what a desaster brexit was for the UK. At least some of them used the time well to reconsider. In the end the movement will further lose momentum as people will arrange themselves with the situation. (like in Südtirol)
Thanks. Great point about immigration. This also applied to Scotland, but in rather interesting ways. I was up there for the referendum. Some EU citizens said they supported independence. Others were worried about what it would mean for Scotland in the EU and so opposed it. (EU and Commonwealth citizens could vote in the referendum.) But I also met a lot who decided not to vote. They just decided that it wasn’t their fight. They saw Scotland as a temporary home and so felt it would be wrong to vote. As for the second point, I was rather astounded by how events played out in 2017. It was clear that there was no plan. Frankly, it would have been better for the pro-independence forces to work on providing a blueprint for an independent Catalonia and show people that they have a firm plan. This was one area where the Scottish Government were excellent prior to the 2014 vote. They laid out exactly what a Scottish state would look like. This stood in complete contrast to Brexit, which was indeed built on lies, false promises and no plan whatsoever!
Just like Québec separatism in 🇨🇦, it becomes dormant after failures of referenda and a more lenient approach from the national government, but I'm sure the Catalan separatism will be reignited once the strongly unionist PP+Vox come to power.
Something not mentioned in the video and very central to the subject is the fact that an independence poll would require amending the Spanish constitution which is particularly hard to do. Even if the central government wanted to grant the referendum their hands would be tied
Additionally it’s not mentioned just how opposed half of the catalans were to independence. In 2017 the largest party in the regional parliament was staunch unionist, but they couldn’t form a majority. All in all, it is true that many Catalans wanted independence but it’s not properly shown in the video how divisive this matter really was.
Small correction: the "Estatuto de autonomía" does not define Catalonia as a "nation" (nación in spanish) but as a "nacionalidad", which means the same but not really 🤷🏻♂️ Not that it really matters for the end question IHMO, just to be a bit more exact.
If Catalonia gains independence, it's likely that the Basque Country will follow suit. This would mean Spain loses two of its three richest regions, setting a precedent that could destabilize the country further. This issue extends beyond just Catalonia; it’s about the broader implications of such a precedent. While there are historical reasons for Catalonia’s desire for independence, it’s important to note that Catalans already enjoy a high degree of autonomy. They can speak their language, govern themselves, and have one of the highest incomes in Spain. This isn’t a case of a marginalized region fighting for basic rights; they are far from oppressed. The claims that Catalonia would be better off without Spain are reminiscent of the rhetoric used by Brexit supporters in the UK- "Take back control." As we now see, that hasn't worked out as promised. A balanced analysis should consider both the pros and cons of Catalan independence, and the perspectives of both sides. It's crucial to focus on the reasons behind these aspirations and the potential consequences, rather than just the immediate desires.
Thanks for your video which is somehow unclear on certain points. I am a catalan and have experienced this epoch of our history that led to a dangerous division of our society. To start with Catalunya was never, historically an independent state, contrary to other regions such as Serbia who had a kingdom in the middle ages eventually absorbed by the turks. Secondly, what happened was that the socialist government negotiated a new regional constitution for catalunya without consulting with the state council and consittutional court and, guess what, it was unconstitutional. Then the independentist parties decided that at 50% of votes they could unilaterally declare independence and, of course, the central state stoped them. What a surprise. In the end Catalunya is formed a majortiy of Spanish/Catalan loving citizens who understand that together we will do much better. Imagine Texas or Bavaria going roge on the issue of independence, what would the central state do? ....you dam righ, it will stop itt!! So is the independentist movement dead? It is weak right now. History being cyclical we will probably see more coming in the future.
Sometimes one event can make a huge difference, i.e if it wasn´t for WW1 Ireland might have remained in the UK, but with a lot of devolved powers as per the Home Rule Bill
i would say it is frozen for this moment but it will be back if issues concerning more autonomy are not addressed. Spain needs to realize that oppressing the feelings are not going to take them away. In order for the feelings to be subsided spain needs to move from a unitary state to a system where the primary role lies with the regions and where the central government is only there to handle general issues like defense or foreign affairs. If they keep it the way things are it will only increase the calls for independence again
I have to disagree, the demographics aren't really in catalonia's favour. The people who want independence are going to be an increasingly shrinking minority with aging population immigration enmigration and globalisation in general ect. Sadly I can't really see it lasting as a distinct culture for more than a generation or two more.
Good question. The critical thing in all these cases is building up the internal case for self-determination and independence. Pushing to secede without the support of the SA Government is a recipe for failure. States do not like secession, especially in Africa. None will want to go against SA. Invariably this is a slow process. But it would need to focus on the positive case for separation.
This will run and run. But I wonder how many people reflect about the wider stability of the area. After all both Catalans and Basques consider parts of France theirs. It might seem unhighly unlikely that the Rousillon or Pau might want to leave France but if the Spanish regions become independent that would be am entirely ball game. Same thing with Catalan speaking 4:44 areas in neighbouring Aragon like Matarrana. This all seems like a hornet nest to me, with dire consequences for Europe in general.
Catalan separatists are not a majority in Catalonia, but certainly they scream louder than the rest and that gives a mistaken idea of what catalan people rally wants.
Spain absolutely isn´t a shitshow under this government, if anything it´s doing comparatively well compared to most EU countries, i.e the economy is growing reasonably well, it´s managed to repeal a lot of the worst Rajoy legislation, it´s restored research and development funding. Yes, it isn´t perfect and hasn´t got everything right but it´s one of the better Spanish governments and dare I say one of the better ones in the EU. I really hate how people seem to think that their opinion overrides actual facts.
Often wondered how that story ended. On a similar but much smaller scale, we see cases in the U.S., where parts of prosperous conservative states, and large city suburbs where a centralized “Democratic Party” (effectively the Socialist/ Communist Party) has established one-party rule, and stolen all the wealth. People push to form a new city, or break away from the disastrous, authoritarian “Democratic Party” run state. But rather than seek the unrealistic goal of forming a new “independent” state, their goal is usually to focus on breaking away from the corrupt socialist run state or city, and merge with a neighboring conservative state or municipality, run by the Republican Party. And they are often successful. Obviously the Catalonian leaders overplayed their hand. But it should be noted, they were peaceful, nevertheless, in the face of state violence, driven by the socialists, who are ALWAYS quick to use the power of the state to force their will on people. Notice the glaring hypocrisy of Spain’s socialist leaders today, who are first in line to recognize a nonexistent “Palestinian state” abroad, effectively canceling another country, while violently suppressing legitimate calls for statehood at home.
As an outsider, Galicians seems to be more different to the rest of Spain than Catalonia but yet they are very much Spanish. This Catalonia independence talk is ridiculous, as ridiculous as Liverpool should have its own state because of their dialect difference from most of England
it isn't ridiculous. in Catalonia, we don't only just speak a different language, but have many political and cultural differences. before calling something 'ridiculous', do your research.
0:55 Many of the listed countries were not "new countries created following the collapse of the soviet union", but countries that regained their independence.
Some were. Some weren’t. Some were, but weren’t. It was all rather confusing. Ukraine and Belarus were already UN members, but no one would call them states before 1991. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania did regain their independence, but they had never been UN members.
What many don't know is that Greater Catalonia would be a lot bigger. Valencia would be part of it (Valencian is considered by many to be a Catalonian dialect, while centralists, in order to weaken the irredentism, consider it to be a separate language), smaller other bits and Andorra as well. I think even a small part of south east France as well. Catalonian irredentism.
Independence of Catalonia will be the beginning of the end of Spain. Seventeen small republics will substitute the Kingdom. Happened in Yugoslavia, Russia and the American ex-colonies .
Thanks. The fear that other parts will follow is often a reason why countries oppose secession. But is it such a big threat in Spain? I could see the Basque Country going its own way. But do you think others would really follow?
I never understood what Catalonya expected to gain. In the longer run, they would still want to be in the EU, so there would be no borders with Spain, and there would be a shared currency.
I think part of the problem lies with the apparent indifference of Valencia and of the Balearic Islands to the question. Both regions share a distinct cultural identity and a different language (both of which, in their turn, are close to Catalonia) but both of them appear to be content of their current situation. On the other hand, the refusal of the US and the EU to deal with the fledgling state was painfully antidemocratic.
Hardly our place to deal with the situation, I would say. If you want to be upset with someone, be upset with the EU. The US is going to stay out of something like that unless it's absolutely necessary.
@@jeffmorris5802 Point is, the US didn't "stay out". They actively refused to acknowledge Catalonia. Therefore your comment doesn't make a lot of sense.
@@jeffmorris5802 we apparently use different dictionaries. In mine, ""staying out"" would have been not saying anything or releasing some noncommittal statement.
@JamesKerLindsay To be honest I'm not sure. On one side the victory of the Psc at the catalan election seems to indicate that catalans like Sanchez' approach to Catalunya, but on the other it's almost impossible that decades of demands for independence disappear in such a short time...
This most recent independence move by Catalonia always seemed to me as one without a good reason. They seem to be making a circular argument that they are being oppressed because they aren't allowed to declare independence. So they have to declare independence. I think a nation first has to make a strong case for how they are being harmed, one that isn't entirely historical, but based on ongoing and current violations to the rights of the people of the region involved. I think a historical argument can be made here. But as for modern examples, we seem to be lacking those. With most separatists movements around the world, you can often immediately grasp why people chose to separate and even take up arms to do it. Not here. One of their complaints seems to be that their region is one of the most prosperous in the country and should be taxed less. That's some white people problem right there.
Yeah, but despite the rhetoric, it's not down to money. The economic motivation is continually rolled out in the Spanish press because Catalans are stereotyped as being mean. In my experience, people want independence for cultural motivations much more than for economic reasons.
I don't think there needs to be any demonstrated harm, but basically just the will of the people should be enough. With some practical limitations though, like that not every small village can become independent if people just vote for it.
Yeah they're not some oppressed exploited minority group in some forgotten neglected region put the country. They're the rich part of Spain who doesn't want to have to pay for the poor parts of Spain anymore. Not quite the same but you can also make the same argument for Somali land.
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 But this just isn’t true. It’s not about paying for the rest of Spain. I know many Catalans who would keep paying the same for many decades in return for independence. In my experience they just want to make their own decisions in their own country.
@@someoneinoffensive Britain occupied Ireland and then used religion as an excuse for oppression. Scotland and England merged via Act of Union w/a Scotish king, James I, on the English thrown. Fast forward today, and "unified" translates into a more powerful state on the global stage. The same can be said regarding Catalonia or Northern Italy. If EU members begin to splinter, then, by default, Brussels ends up with enhanced powers without strong nation states to act as a check and balance. Furthermore, borders are constructed to contain wealth. Catalonia and Aragon, Since Queen Isabella, have been part of the kingdom. Independence is a means of hoarding wealth and is a short- sighted temptation.
Wow. having watched this video in full now, there is a stark difference between how the Prof presents Spanish assertion of sovereignty in Catalonia with how he presents Chinese assertion of sovereignty in HK. No innuendo or snide remarks about the Spanish government. Despite the fact that, objectively, China's CCP has outperformed any Spanish government by an order of magnitude.
I’m not sure I see the link. You are comparing two very different things. I was very clear that HK is part of China. What I raised was the way that China has undermined its promise to maintain a separate system. In effect it has undermined HK’s autonomy and democracy. Catalonia remains democratic and autonomous. No countries in the world permit unilateral secession. Spain stopped it from happening. China would do the same. And if HK had tried to secede then the comparison would perhaps be valid. (Although I would have explained why it didn’t have the right to do so.) In effect, you are comparing apples and oranges, as we say. The discussion is not about democracy in both cases. And it isn’t about secession in both videos. It is about secession in one, and autonomy and democracy in the other.
@@JamesKerLindsay In Western discourse, there is a clear undertone of undermining China's sovereignty in HK. They just cloak this intent by using words like "democracy". Western narrative surrounding democracy in HK is really about resentment of Chinese sovereignty over the territory. Excuse me if i don't find Western support of democracy in HK convincing. Britain governed HK for well over a century without allowing democracy - a point I'm sure you've heard many times, but nevertheless rings true. "Democracy" and autonomy in HK were being used as trojan horses to discredit Chinese rule. Furthermore any assertion of Chinese sovereignty in HK is portrayed as an attack on democracy. National security laws are a prime example of this. Bitterly criticized in the West. However, those same countries condemning China usually have far more stringent national security laws in their own countries. Post handover HK was always about sovereignty. It was never really about democracy. So we can make the comparison with Catalonia in my opinion.
No. There isn’t any attempt to undermine China’s sovereignty over Hong Kong. I was clear. HK is utterly unviable without China’s support. And no one seriously believes that it could break away. Don’t read things into situations that aren’t there. It is bad analysis.
@JamesKerLindsay I don't know how one can come to the conclusion that china's sovereignty in hk isn't being undermined in western commentary. Every article and news report has been scathing of Chinese rule. Discourse, for example, that attempts to define hk language and culture as somehow not Chinese is also an attempt to undermine china's sovereignty. You see this, too, with Taiwan, as if the fujian dialect spoken in TW is somehow not Chinese. Analysis that defines hk as "not chinese", that portrays any Chinese central government authority in hk as illegitimate, these narratives are all designed to undermine china's sovereignty.
You forgot to mention the Iberians who replaced the Greeks way before the arrival of Carthaginians and Romans in the 3rd c. BC. Iberians is what the greeks called the population in Catalonia
Voting for an independentist party doesn't make you an independentist, a lot of people do that because they want a more descentraliced state, not a full independence
@@JamesKerLindsay Pedro Sanchez promised that he wont pardon the coupist, promised that wont be amnesty/amnesy, promised not forgive the debt, promised thay wont be fiscal pact...
Every true patriotic Albanien that loves Kosovo should support oppressed Catalonian people. But they need to learn from Kosovo model. Independence is not gained just true voting… First is forming of freedom fighters paramilitary formation, than open military conflict, and than media war against the imperial Spanish boots, and after Nato military intervention against the Spain, you can hope for unilateral independence voting.
I have a very hard time of separating Catalonia independence from the similar stylings of the CSA and the Confederate States of the America both were very spectacular failure attempts at secession And both of them attempted to rip the very fabric of the unity of the nation in question Needless to say I don't see myself currently giving much support to Catalonia But as a non Spaniard maybe I just don't know enough and should I reconsider? 🤔 It's very difficult to know when and where you should and shouldn't offer support to separatist movements around the world
Catalans want more autonomy from Spain while staying in the EU, Catalonia gives more in taxes towards the central government than it receives in investments, Catalonia is on average more prosperous and with higher productivity than the Spanish average.
@@gawkthimm6030 This sounds better on your head than it is. It’s a simple case of selfishness and never a better way of showing that than with your words
not the best comparison catalonia has it's culture since medieval times, it wants what's best for their nation. The confederates wanted the right to enslave other human beings.
Having seen what's happened to independent UK now that it's outside the EU, there'sa lot less support for separating from economic and political unions, don't you think?
Thanks. Good point. I think that many in Catalonia would want clarity on what its status would be in the EU. There was no way it could join if it seceded from Spain without Madrid’s permission. Butter assumptions that if the Spanish Government agreed then it could join. My own view is that the EU has made independent statehood more viable for smaller European states.
The Principality of Catalonia didn't enjoy "considerable autonomy" but de facto ruled the Kingdom of Aragon, which only kept the name. The king was of Catalan lineage and the court was located in Barcelona.
No. I’m trying to condense down a complex history into a bit of readily understandable background for people trying to make sense of what is happening today. I appreciate the response. But also remember that this isn’t a full course of Catalan history. It is a 10-15 minute video. I try to write things as best I can for an audience that invariably knows very little about a topic.
@@JamesKerLindsay Fair enough, but your source is clearly Spanish, a country where the truth has no value. I know that History is written by victors, but it's still shocking to hear some misleading claims that reinforce Spanish lies like the one saying that Catalans have never been independent. Spain claims that, at that time, Catalonia was rule by what today is Aragon, which is what one understands from your explanation, whereas in reality the Crown of Aragon was a kind of confederation (Principality of Catalonia, Kingdom of Aragon and Kingdom of Valencia) ruled by what today is Catalonia. Catalonia started losing its independence in 1412 when, at the Compromise of Caspe. The Catalan king having died without descendants, a group of emissaries from the three entities of the confederation had to choose the new king. After much controversy, a smaller group of emissaries, irregularly determined at the behest of one of the candidates, voted for that candidate, who belonged to a Castilian royal family (Trastámara). After that, the Crown of Aragon quickly fell into the sphere of influence of Castile. SO the reality is that Catalonia was de facto independent from year 985 to late 15th century. As always, Castile cheating, lying and dedicating itself to extracting the wealth of others. Exactly the same as today.
In the light of Spain's recent recognition of an independent Palestinian state (one run by Hamas terrorists, apparently), one has to ask: are chants of "from the river to the sea, Catalonia will be free" justified?
The current Spanish government is held in coalition power by separatist parties. They just pardoned a bunch of separatists. This socialist government is a disaster for Spain, and probably will be annihilated in the next elections.
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 Just a small correction, kindly : When the masses chant "From the River to the Sea" (including a minister in the government of Spain), it means they do not recognize the 1967 borders ! It means they do not recognize Israel's right to exist at all !!!
Good point. It’s actually quite common. Right wing central governments are associated with centralisation and nationalism. They often work against devolved administrations. The left tends to be more own to them. We see it in Britain. With the Tories, the SNP really gained strength. But with every sign that at the Conservatives are on course to be beaten, the SNP looks set to lose a lot of seats to Labour in Scotland. The parallels are interesting.
This has been an issue I have wanted to return to for quite some time. I remember watching the declaration of independence in 2017 with complete bemusement. As someone who works on secession, state creation and recognition, it was so obviously destined to fail. I just couldn't quite believe they had put themselves into such a corner. But where do things stand now? Is independence still on the table for Catalans? How do people in Spain feel about it? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments.
Spain's refusal to discuss independence is an "underlying issue" fueling desire for independence?
Not really.
Odd statement at the end of of your video, there.
Anyhow, independence will never prosper because a majority of the population feels Spanish and half have roots in other parts of Spain.
Its a non-starter. If they didn't succeed in 2017 when they had everything in favor, they never will.
What many don't know is that Greater Catalonia would be a lot bigger. Valencia would be part of it (Valencian is considered by many to be a Catalonian dialect, while centralists, in order to weaken the irredentism, consider it to be a separate language), smaller other bits and Andorra as well. I think even a small part of south east France as well. Catalonian irredentism.
Cataluña nunca ha sido
independiente el idioma es un dialecto del valenciano . Valencia si ha sido un Reino .
12:10 the "strong sense of identity underpinned by history and culture" is a key aspect of most or all regions / 'autonomous communities' in Spain and this pluralism is a defining feature of the nation itself -- unlike countries like France which effectively suppressed identities and languages other than French (including Catalan) as part of its creation of national identity. Article II of the Spanish constitution actually formally "recognises and guarantees the right to autonomy of the nationalities and regions which make it up and the solidarity among all of them." So, in a nutshell, the multi-ethnic or plurinational nature of Spain 'has always been a thing'.
@@olliestudio45 agreeing with this statement, being from a federal country myself - Germany. What I think is another important factor here is that times literally change - mobility within countries changes, people from all over the country travel and move around.
Gradually, regionalism weakens to an extent until it's not in conflict with national identity anymore. My great-grandmother might have seen herself as Swabian (Southwestern German) first, and German second, for my generation these two identities do not stand in contrast with each other anymore.
Finally a geopolitics slow week where the Prof can finish off an item on his to-do list.
Thanks. Indeed! :-) Sadly, I’m finding that people are now so consumed by the big geopolitical issues that there seems to be less and less interest in these sorts of “side issues”.
@@JamesKerLindsay I agree
@@JamesKerLindsayI can say for myself I’m very interested still
As a Spaniard with strong connections to Catalonia, this analysis is... Lacking.
However, the analysis seems to be made in good faith, so allow me to share more information that is crucial to understand all of this.
The main problem with your analysis is that it makes it look like it's all about culture and national identity, but at the end of the day, that's more propaganda than anything else. The truth is Catalonia is not that particularly unique inside of Spain in that regard. The country as a whole is insanely culturally diverse, we have other languages inside the country that are as long lasting, if not more than Catalan, and also more removed from Spanish than Catalan is, and other regions have easily bigger historical claims to a theorical independence.
At the end of the day, the Independence movement was more about one thing: money.
By far, the biggest slogan of the Independence movement in 2017 was "España nos roba", or "Spain steals from us". As in, Catalans wanted to keep all of their taxes for themselves and only share them with the rest of the country on their own accord, instead of being redistributed by the Central Government, since they thought they were entitled to keep more money than they were receiving in comparison to the taxes they collected. The idea of sovereignty was just a means to that end. Very few people really had the rejection of the new Catalan statute in mind in this whole thing.
In reality, Independence wasn't a response to historical grievances as much as an easy way out from the economic problems that Spain faced after the 2008 recession and the Eurozone crisis combo.
Problem is, it was all a big ruse by Catalan politicians to stay in power. You see, the vast majority of government spending cuts in Catalonia were made by the regional government, not the the Central one. And they used the idea of independence in order to deviate the attention away from that fact, painting Spain as an anchor to Catalonia's foot that was squandering the region's economical potential.
That's why their pleads for independence were pretty much ignored by the international community. It just rang painfully hollow at best and selfish and self-centered at worst.
Not to mention it was also myopic. First, taxes aren't collected by region. They are collected on an individual basis. The reason why Catalonia is wealthier is because it has a lot of wealthy people tributing there. But these are a tiny minority of borderline oligarchs, not the region on average (there is an old saying that Catalonia is controlled by a 100 wealthy families). Also, the fact that during the country's industrialization, a lot of companies put their headquarters in Barcelona (NOT Catalonia). And of course, now that a lot, and I mean A LOT of companies have left the region since 2017, the overall wealth and tax return of the region has fallen dramatically. Which means that the illusion of Catalonia giving away more money to other regions than what they kept for themselves has lost A LOT of weight, since they give away less money than before, but they receive roughly the same amount as before in relative terms.
There are more details that I'm leaving out, like the fact that disillusionment with the movement has a lot to do with people realizing the aforementioned politicians' ruse (the main reason why pro independence movement have fallen so much), or that Catalonia's true ultimate autonomy goal is to have something similar to the "Cupo vasco", the Basque Country's 500 year old special tax treatment, but you get the gist of it.
Quite right. Nothing to do with national identity and everything to do about money.
Saying that it's not a cultural thing is a common Spanish mistaken way of thinking, while the economic aspect of independent is important, it's mostly a cultural, ideological and self governance thing.
@@AntonEsteveGualofficialthat’s bullshit. It’s about money.
This is an amazing reply. Thank you for the education
🎯
👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
Now that you've done Scotland, Ireland and Catalonia, Professor, you are obliged to complete your list of independence movements by also doing Flanders! The European Parliamentary elections have shown a strong inclination towards, if not independence, at least even more devolution for the already devolved Belgium; which is to say a confederation! We haven't had one of those in the world for a while.
As a Flemish, I can only add that most people here vote for the two independence parties (NVA and Vlaams Belang) for their anti immigration stances. Most Flemish are against independence and that's why NVA is already shifting from secession to confederalism.
The European Union is a de facto confederation.
Thanks. You are absolutely right. I really must do something on Flanders.
It’s highly unlikely that Flanders will gain independence because of the question of what will happen to Brussels. Brussels is in the middle of Flanders but it’s a Francophone majority city. The European Union and particularly France, will not allow Brussels to join Flanders. This makes it very awkward for those who want independence.
Polls have shown that there are just as much Vlaams Belang voters who want a stronger Belgian monarchy as there are Vlaams Belang voters who want Flemish independence. It's the racism and anti-woke far-right populism that attracts most Vl Belang voters, not the dream of independence. Concerning the NVA voters: most of them just want confederalism and total fiscal autonomy, not independence. There are of course pro-independence NVA and Vl Belang voters, but every poll has indicated they cobstitute no more than about 1/3 of them. So, that's about 15% of Flemish people who want independence. Foreign media tend to not be aware of this, and have announced 'the end of Belgium' after every single election in the last 2 decades.
I mean. A peak of 49% support isn’t great. Breaking up a state doesn’t seem to be the type of thing you’d want to do on a simple majority. Surely, if there was a vote, it would be reasonable to require 2/3. Forcibly separating half the local population from their country and identity isn’t particularly democratic.
Someone should tell Britain that!
The peak was 52%, though, the video is wrong in that fact.
@@hugorm5098 sure. Doesn’t really change the point though
@@tempejklwe had a referendum in Scotland on independence a decade ago and it was made clear that a simple majority would determine the result. No nationalist would have ever agreed to a vote where they needed 2/3 in favour for independence to actually happen.
I agree! However, a proper referendum should be held.
I think this is a very good analysis, but it should be emphasized that even at the height of the procés (the 10-year-long Catalan attempt to secede), at least 50% of Catalans wanted to remain in Spain.
This was never just Spain vs. Catalonia, but rather a conflict between the two halves of Catalonia: the pro-independence Catalans vs. the unionist Catalans.
Yeah... no, that's what some of you would like to happen! The conflict between Catalonia and Spain exists much before the start of the modern independence movement, as properly shown in this video. It's almost as if people keep wanting to believe that there has never been a problem. Quite interesting... and revealing...
The Catalan separatists do not have a strong case to argue that support for independence has been long-standing. There was majority support for the new Spanish Constitution in every region of Spain when it was ratified by a constitutional referendum in 1978. In Catalonia there was a vote of over 95% in favour of it, with voter turnout of about 68%.
The ONLY region with any moral claim that the new constitution was not supported in that referendum is Basque Country. Basque separatists urged their supporters to boycott the referendum. Voter turnout there was less than 50%, of which about 75% voted in favour, meaning that only one-third of eligible voters there voted to support it.
That's still not a claim for the Basques because the Basque population was threatened by ETA to death if they dared vote against their interests. Most Basques didn't even live in the Basque region because they were persecuted out of it.
@@AFVEH that's such an absurd overexaggeration that it's not even worth arguing
@oihanlarranegi472 Exageration!? Wow, ignorance really is bliss.
@@AFVEH sure dude, "most" Basques didn't live in the Basque Country. Whatever. Lots of people fled, but it is simply false (and insane) to say that the Basque Country suffered some sort of massive exodus. Is it really that hard to believe that Herri Batasuna was genuinely popular among some people? Is it really that hard to believe that the constitution was simply not very well received?
@oihanlarranegi472 Of course, it isn't hard to believe. Those who stayed are the ones who agreed with the Terrorists. But if you combine those who fled and those who stayed that opposed the terrorists that makes up a Basque majority. Obviously, talking about back in the day. Today, those pro-terrorists that stayed have bred and multiplied and washed the brain of the new generation. But to suggest that the majority of the Basques of before were anti-Spanish after historically being the most patriotic region is ludicrous. And to suggest that the majority of the Basques of before were in favor of terrorism shows a very low opinion of Basque culture.
Always love to see an upload from you professor! Great coverage!
Thank you so much! Have a great weekend. :-)
The Kurdish and Catalan independence referendums-held just a week apart-showed how unrealistic the majority of separatist movements are in the face of centralised states that need them economically. What both movements have or had in common was that their own indigenous economic drivers (oil and tourism respectively) would be a means for a poorly thought out statehood that was never to be,
Thanks Derek. You are absolutely right. Most are unrealistic about how incredibly difficult it is to break away from established states. Everything is weighted against them. But one can also understand why people see it as attractive, especially in states that deny them the right to choose. (Spain is actually at the better end of this spectrum. Pro-independence parties are allowed to exist, even if Madrid refuses to allow a vote on secession.) I’ve often felt that Spain should have been more open to the idea. The problem is that once you concede one vote, it then potentially becomes a regular occurrence. And there’s also the danger than you open the way for calls elsewhere, a very real concern for Spain.
@@JamesKerLindsay I cannot agree more. I was living in Barcelona and working in Erbil at the time and so by happenstance lived through both vividly (my flat was across from the Catalan parliament when I returned from the disastrous KRG referendum) but I couldn't help but recall the Ichkeria movement for Chechen independence from Moscow under Yeltsin and how Putin used its failure to gain power. All the skeptics talk of "ok but how how will a landlocked independent Chechnya export its oil?" etc.
Yes same Ukraine , Donbas, Moldova, Gaugazia etc. Its actually common. The idea of country nationalism is new, lots of people consider identity to be the language, culture, ethnicity or religion.
As a spaniard I must say with all due respect that catalonian independentism is far from over. I should say, in fact that it now has higher chances of succeding than it has ever had, with more radical independentist party ruling the regional parliament and the main independentist leaders being now able to decide wether the government is functional or not based on how the spanish parliament works. This may seem strange to outsiders, but catalan independentism is now one of the dominant faction of the spanish state.
Thanks. I completely agree. As I said, I think the most significant problem is that Madrid refuses to discuss a vote. Having followed this issue for over a decade, this always seems to have been the greatest driver of pro-independence sentiment. Many people don't want to break away, but they hate being told by the central government that they aren't even allowed a democratic vote on the matter.
Sounds like you just mad its ded tbh
@@JamesKerLindsay A democratic vote entails every spanish citizen having a say in the matter, which means seccession would never happen. I'm down for such a referendum.
@@joaquingonzalez5095 That is the logic of an abusive husband deciding his wife is not allowed to ever leave. I presume most Catalonians would be sufficiently pragmatic to be willing to stay a part of Spain if the arrangements gave them enough autonomy and allowed for a distinct regional identity. Castillians pronouncing that it is all good won't solve the problem.
As a Quebecker with ties to Catalonia, I guarantee you it is not over. We will help each other no matter what!
In the current geopolitical context (security threat by Russia, security dependence by the US), it becomes clear that further fragmentation of Europe may not be a very good idea, while other formulas of limited self-rule exist...
Quite frankly it was absurd for separatists leaders to claim that somehow they could just unilaterally declare independence and the EU would just roll with that and accept them as a new member.
That fact that Andorra, a catalan speaking microstate, expressed its support for Spain refusing to recognize the "independence" of Catalunya added a comical tone to the this whole fiasco.
92% on 42% turnout doesnt exactly scream victory
Stop that clownery. Try voting while being intimidated by the central government. If it would have been approved by Madrid, the turnout would have been much different.
@@vovac8915 Intimidation is actually within Catalonia’s own borders.
yeah and that was during 'peak independence'
42% turnout indicate 58% who didn't vote likely leaning towards staying with Spain.
Therefore if the referendum was mandatory, Stay would have won in a landslide
Mr Putin was behind of Catalonia independence movement.
Like Brexit.....
Like Mr. Trump elections.....
Just found your channel and I have been binge watching your very interesting topics, I live in Cyprus have done for over 20 years, and I feel more at risk in the last couple of year because of the military base giving much needed aid to those in trouble and because of our proximity to most of the danger areas.I don't want them to stop giving aid but without doubt it definitely puts Cyprus in to troubled waters giving enough that tensions are elevated in most areas around us.Yhankyou for your very interesting content.
Hi Anita, thanks so much. I am really glad you are finding the videos interesting. Always really nice to hear. Things are certainly getting a lot more tense in the region. I also live in Cyprus now. It definitely feels more more uncertain, especially as tensions are increasing in Lebanon. Let’s hope things calm down.
Subscriber here from Spain. A very good analysis, with some caviats:
1. The reason for not holding a referendum of independence is simple, to change the constitutional status of Spain a referendum needs to be done in the whole country according to the current constitution, approved in 1978 with the support of most Spaniards, including Catalans.
2. The amnesty declared by the current Spanish government was done to get the votes needed to get Sanchez elected as PM. But that law is now under review by the Judiciary and there are serious doubts about its implementation. Simply put, the Executive branch cannot really tell the Judiciary what to prosecute and what not as it breaks the principle of equality against the law (just because I'm from Catalonia I'm not judged against a law that would affect me if I'm from Murcia, for example)
3. Many of the people who supported independence in the 2010s did so because of a decentralised education system that invents Catalonia as a repressed independent nation that also expands into Valencia, Ballearic islands and the south of France. Yes, Catalonia may have been de facto independent a millennium ago, but the truth is that Catalonia after that has never been independent, not even under the Crown of Aragon. Even during Franco, Catalonia was at the centre of Spanish manufacturing industry promoted mainly by the central government and Catalans were free to use their language at home, although the whole education system was in Castillian Spanish only.
4. All that said, support for the current socialist Spanish party has increased in Catalonia where they now have the highest vote percentage in all of Spain, whereas in Andalucia or Extremadura they've now been surpassed by conservatives. Should a general election be called, it's highly doubtful that they'll be able to form a majority and the Constitutional Court may declare the amnesty null and void anyways.
" Yes, Catalonia may have been de facto independent a millennium ago, but the truth is that Catalonia after that has never been independent". Well said! This is the same reason why Morocco should stop talking about Ceuta and Melilla: They are Spanish. The people there are Spanish, and they have been so since time immemorial.
@@solsunman383 "Morocco should stop talking about Ceuta and Melilla"
I agree but, by the same token, Spain should also stop talking about Gibraltar.
@@seneca983 I think it would be discussed much less if Gibraltar didn't keep harbouring the funds of Spanish criminals and mafia.
If they accepted their status as a just little town connected to the rest of Iberia and stopped allowing companies to avoid paying tax in Spain, people would be much less annoyed and probably forget about the whole issue.
@@solsunman383 I don't think I've heard the Spanish government say that they would accept British sovereignty even conditioned on resolving those issues.
@@seneca983 True. But it would no longer be as popular topic to chat about in Spain, so the government would have less insentive to push it. You would also have less people commenting about it in youtube comment sections!
Thanks for shining a light on this issue. Very little (none?) coverage of this post the collapse of the independence effort in the general media.
This is really good balanced analysis highly recommended to outsiders wanting to understand this complex issue. A couple of notes: the decline is percentage for pro independence parties in latest elections is in part explained by the rise in abstentionism. Also, the peak of parliamentary support for independence parties was in 2021 elections where it reached 52% of the vote.
Actually, it was lower at 50.12% of the popular vote, while voter turnout affected by Covid was historically low at just 52%. Compared to previous elections, the 3-party independence block lost substantial vote-count -- no mandate could be claimed from the 2021 results.
@@BillsCultureHour The video states that the peak of vote share for pro independence parties was in 2017 at 49%. That is not correct since, as you point out, in 2021 the vote share was of 50.12%. Although with such low turnout a mandate could be of course claimed and so a pro independence government was formed.
@@carlosaviles9400 No mandate can ever be claimed on a 50.12% result. If a pro-independence gov't was nonetheless formed in 2021, it was due to electoral math which disproportioanately favors rural areas where secessionist sentiments are stronger. In terms of parliamentary seats, 55% (74 of 135) were alloted to independence parties, a skewed outcome that has repeated itself several times in modern Catalan elections.
I grew up in Barcelona and saw first hand all the 2010s developments. Although I no longer live in Barcelona since about a year ago, I’m still very informed about the local reality and feeling in the air, regarding this. As always, and as a fellow subscriber of your channel for almost 2 years so far, I think that the whole summary of the situation leading to the current events and the subsequent analysis you made is brilliant. However, I would like to point out some extra factors that may play against the Catalan independence movement in the long term, and may be hard to tackle for them:
1. The decrease in the usage of Catalan language among the Catalonia’s youth, specially in the city and metro area of Barcelona.
2. Globalization is over-promoting Spanish more than before. One close friend of mine, all-life supporter of independence, thinks that the Catalan language may become extint by 100 years (surprisingly, he didn’t seemed particularly affraid of that).
3. Catalan is no longer seen as a prestige language in the region of Catalonia, as was the case from the 1960s to the 1990s. Historically, the blue-collar Southern Spainiards that would migrated to Catalonia to work in factories, would encourage their children to speak Catalan so they could easily mingle with the local Catalan white-collar children. Catalan is no longer seen as that, at least not in Barcelona (the most populated region). You can see this phenomenon of Catalan being a prestige language in smaller towns, 40 km away from Barcelona. In Barcelona and other big populated areas, more and more professionals and college-graduated people from all over Spain and Latin American can be seen, and they normally do not learn or even less use Catalan on a daily life basis.
I have a question: how can a given region gain independence from a country if this country's Constitution states that any attempt to break away is illegal and unconstitutional?
Great question. Many countries have this sort of provision. Ultimately, it reflects a democratic culture. Constitutions can be changed (although it is hard). If a country is open to the idea of a referendum then it can find a way around it. But few do. States hate losing territory and so introduce safeguards like this. It makes secession even more difficult, but in almost every country it’s a mountain to climb anyway. The issue I have is that this creates conditions where the whole country must vote on independence. This goes against principles of self-determination. It should be the self-determination unit that votes on it, not the entire country.
@@JamesKerLindsay how small do you think the self-determination unit can be before it’s unreasonable? The limit being individuals, but sovereign citizens are obviously absurd. But could, say, Barcelona alone secede?
@@JamesKerLindsay Part of the problem with this approach is that, as difficult as it is to separate a nation, it's actually almost impossible to put it back together again. There are almost no cases of regions that have declared independence re-joining again. This means that if, say a large percentage of the population boycott a vote, or the youth which may have voted otherwise but were too young at the time, the nation will become independent and disenfranchise them with no means to undo it. This is the problem with something like Brexit (which wasn't even a proper independence).
You also run into issues of large loyalist majority areas (such as in Kosovo or Northern Ireland). Should these areas also be allowed to choose their future? What if they are non contiguous, such as Sønderborg in the North Schlesvig plebiscite? The city voted to remain part of Germany, but was surrounded by areas that voted to join Danmark. It would have become an expensive enclave, if it and other cities had remained German.
Another, less popular, concept is the disproportionate division of population and infrastructure. Two examples spring to mind. When Austria-Hungary dissolved, most of the population was located in Vienna. However, most of the food was grown in the Hungarian half of the kingdom. Additionally, port infrastructure (and therefore imports) was now located in Yugoslavia, whilst most heavy industry was in Czechoslovakia. The net result was that Vienna starved. Without a hinterland to supply the city, Austria fell apart. (This was one reason why Anschluss was so popular in the aftermath of WWI). A more recent example would be the independence of South Sudan, where oil resources were located in the South, but refineries and ports to export oil were in the North. (Of course, one could say that all this could be avoided with a simple amount of common sense and goodwill. Sadly, those are almost never a guarantee in international politics.)
In truth, self-determination is a heavily flawed concept, that is undermined consistently by questions of practicality, potential economic hardship and even democracy. This is why autonomy is such a popular alternative. It's much easier to adjust the status of autonomy from within the larger nation (both to increase or decrease, depending upon popular will). It also allows an autonomous region to maintain enclaves and exclaves, if necessary, or even be totally surrounded by the parent nation without the messy business of passport controls.
As such, I would argue that self-determination, like democracy itself, is an idea that needs to be tempered by the state, rather than adopted in any simplistic form. Just because independence could be the will of the people right now, it doesn't make it the right course when it comes to practical application.
Violence.
If Taiwan can do it, why not Catalonia or even Russian taking over Ukraine
Geopolitically it makes no sense to break up Spain. Quite frankly it's amazing that the Iberian peninsula is two countries.
The two countries (Portugal and Spain) have been constantly on opposite sides and have been separate for almost a thousand non-consecutive years. That's more than most countries even exist... Is it really surprising that they are still apart, in the present?
@@salciano the third biggest party in portugal (and active governing the second biggest city of portugal (Oporto)) is a pro Portugal -Spanish Unification Movement
So... maybe we can see a spanish portugal unification
@@mastrey It seems you mixed something up.
Currently (Legislative Elections of 2024), the 3rd biggest party in Portugal (Chega) is a right-wing one, characterized by staunchly xenophobic, nationalistic, euro-skeptic views.
Trust me, the last thing on their minds is unification with Spain.
Maybe you should check or name your sources?
There seems to be no party fitting your description...
The Catalonian independence movement is at least 200 years old. I wouldn´t expect it to die abruptly..
No it isn't. The movement of "Catalanismo" is that old not independence. In its origin, the Catalanist movement wanted to Catalanize Spain, meaning to put more Catalans in the central government. It wasn't about de-spanishizing Catalonia or independence like it is today. The name and movement has been hijacked.
I'm Catalan and lived through those years. Here's my opinion:
Catalans certainly have a distinct national identity. We have our own language, cuisine, folkloric dances and every other aspect you could desire to make a distinction in. We are a nation inside a state dominated by the Castilian-Spainish. I certainly do understand that there is a legitimate reason for secession.
On the other hand, Catalunya as part of Spain has so much deep history. From the reconquista to the civil war of 36 all the way through the empire in America, we Spanish have left a lasting impact on civilisation. My historic loyalty and admiration for this country we are part of prevents me to desire independence.
I must add one thing which is controversial but ultimately true: Every modern independent candidate in Catalunya states that a foreigner can become Catalan. If Catalunya has to play a part in a cosmopolitan globalist world where nation states disappear in favor of economic administrative zones, i see no need to form a new and independent state, we might as well be under the Spanish flag whis is already doing that. Formulated in a different thought: nationalism for the sake of political relevance but ultimately to no avail for the actual nation.
All the Autonomous Regions in Spain have their own history, culture, gastronomy, way of being, folklore...All regions could claim independence. I am from the Canary Islands. Here there are also people that want to be independent. But even if we are different we have something in commun and it's that we are Spanish, we share the same culture, idiosincrasy, that can not be denied. I met a Catalonian girl and became friends when I was living in Scotland and she was always being contradictory with her feelings: sometimes extremely proud to say that she was Spanish and sometimes angry at Spain. I used to tell her when she was talking with hate, listen you are talking about me.
I would say that demographically, the independence movement already peaked, and it is slowly but steadily eroding. Basically, the most pro-Independence demographic are those that came of age in the 80’s and 90’s, and grew up in pre-digital era, where everyone was consuming the same set of facts and opinions, particularly TV3 and other local media, at the same time speaking catalan was in a way an act of rebellion, and certain sense of achievement, idealism and pride unified propelled Catalanism after Franco and the 92’s olympics. Nowadays, the very darwinistic nature of internet, has been relegating Catalan to a very testimonial role, when compared with the behemoth that is Spanish. For new generations, Catalan may feel as an imposition. Spanish is ‘cooler’ as that is the language of memes and influencers. With the language comes different viewpoints and opinions. With the fragmentation of the media landscape, institutional catalanism have lost influence over the narrative. Compound that with migration, declining birth rates in the rural parts of Catalonia, that traditionally support independence, and the future is bleak for the movement in the long run.
Thank you so much. I really appreciate the extra insight. It is fascinating how the demographics of independence movements work. In some cases, it’s very youthful driven. In other cases, it is an older age group - although they do usually say that people become more conservative with age. But it is fascinating that you mentioned the Olympics. I have come to the view that Brexit was driven by the 2012 London Olympics. Although it was meant to be a symbol of international cooperation, for a certain demographic it became a source of very particular national pride then translated into nationalism. “We don’t need the EU, we’re British.” It is really interesting to think this may have fed similar sentiment in Catalonia. There’s perhaps something to be written on this!
Yes. The internet and preponderance of Spanish in internet media and its influence on youth is totally a determinant factor in the decline of the Catalan independence movement. Actually, the Generalitat government is willing spend millions in promoting Catalan in the social media landscape. Also, the declining birth rates plays a role.
@@JamesKerLindsay Well, part of the ethos of catalanism, revolves around the idea of being more cosmopolitan, ‘european’, and progressive than the rest of Spain. Therefore, the success of the olympics somehow validated that pov, and made catalanism viable even in the metropolitan area of Barcelona, historically dominated by the socialists. That in turn, led towards an excessive idealization of the EU and the international community. There was this idea that if independence was declared, the EU would force Spain to accept it, like a knight in white horse rescuing a damsel from an ogre. The reality turned out to be way different. Even if some EU governments and ppl, might have sympathy for their cause, not many really thinks of Spain as a monster either. After all, Spain is one of the most consistent pro-EU, progressive countries in the union. Beyond the self-determination issue, not many in their sane mind, would think of one Europe’s richest region as “oppressed” people in need of saving. That also helps explain why the socialists have gained its allure back in the Barcelona metropolitan area, once the waters calmed down, and Spain is ruled by one of Europe’s more progressive leaders, the socialists got the largest plurality of the vote in Cat since 1982. That doesn’t mean that things can’t change, particularly if you get a right wing government in Madrid. But even if that happens, it is not clear that a Catalan reaction would articulate on a national axis, instead of right-left one.
THIS!!! I was thinking 'the younger generation who grew up in internet and social media age overwhelmingly seeing themselves as part of the broader national or even international whole instead of regional group can't be helping the secession movement'.
@@JamesKerLindsay not really. is not about tv3. or do you think that the spanish tv's dont reach catalonia? there is only one channel on catalan, hundreds in spanish. Why? because spain prefers the catalan language to disappear. has always been seen as an inconvenience, because.. "if we all know spanish, why do you need to speak catalan? dont we understand in spanish already?".
the point is.. if you check on catalan speakers, the vote opinion on the issue is nearly at 100% in favour of independence. there is an ethnic side on this. During the franco era, franco favoured the move of millions of spanish to catalonia, people who, after many decades here, refuse to learn or speak catalan. they used to say "speak to me in christian" when they heard someone speaking catalan ("háblame en cristiano"), or to call "polish" to native catalans (as a kindly reminder about what happened to the ghetto of Warsaw).
in the last decades, spain has favoured mass migration specially in catalonia, where, with fertility in negative numbers, and a population of 6 million (already splited between spanish and catalans), 2 more millions have arrived. So catalans are now a minority within their own region, and even so they have not stopped to speak catalan against all odds, this inmigration (specially from latin america, who already speak spanish) has no need to learn or speak catalan: all tv's are in spanish (except one), all movies in theaters, everything. they just dont need it. and the existing catalanophobia in spain does not help either.
is partially a miracle that independentism would grew so much, because that means that even a significant part of the spanish inmigration stablished in catalonia has seen that is the best choice: it goes beyond ethnics (where ethnic catalans are almost unanimously in favour of independence), but also a good chunk of the spanis inmigration who has integrated in the catalan society in several degrees has seen as the only correct decision.
I live near Tarragona in Catalonia. On the surface, independence seems to be on the back seat, but underneath, the feeling is alive and well and there isn't much needed for the whole thing to come to life again. A lot of seperatists are dissapointed over what happened, but that didn't turn them away from the idea of an independant catalonia.
In your historic overview there are some issues with the dates. For instance, Franco died in 75, not in 72. Not mentionning the spanish succession war and 1714 is a big mistake. That's when Catalonia lost all autonomy for centuries to come.
Thank you. Great points. I actually had a whole section on the war of the Spanish Succession. The trouble with these types of videos is that it’s really easy to become bogged down in too many details. Sometimes I just have to cut things that are really interesting but not strictly necessary. Saying that its autonomy was gradually eroded was sufficient. But you’re absolutely right to point out that that was the moment when things changed. (I also had a bit about the complexities of Catalan-French relations.)
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you for taking the time to read my comment and answer, very much appreciated!
1714 is pivotal and the memory of it still very much alive; in 2014 the entire year was dedicated to it with institutional ceremonies and events. But that's something I saw living here.
I appreciate that you have to make choices while editing your videos and you can't leave everything in. And now that I have your attention: thank you very much for the content you're creating, it allows me to educate myself about a lot of situations I wasn't well aware of.
We spent a week in Barcelona in May 2023. We observed a strong sense of national pride but the independence movement seemed quiet. The Catalan language is widespread, and is used in schools.
@@sergiogcollado No, it's only forced to be spoken in catalan class. Aswell as spanish it's forced to be spoken in the spanish class. The language that it's beimg imposed is spanish, because it's a foreign language in catalonia
@@sergiogcollado In catalonia, the cooficial language is spanish and the official is catalan. However, it doesn't matter which is cooficial and which is oficial because they're still official in the same level. This doesn't mean that spanish is a native language of Catalonia, as it's only spoken as a mother language by people who descend from or are immigrants of the rest of Spain. Saying this doesn't mean that I hate the rest of Spain, it's just a fact.
Thanks for the interesting Video!As a Former student of political science with a focus on IR and global Governance I would love to watch videos of you with a strong theoretic focus, instead of a strong case focus
Thanks. I know that some would prefer me to take this route, but the channel was actually developed as a result of my long held view that too many IR scholars are obsessed with theory, but not how the world actually works! Seriously, I am often depressed at how many who teach IR seem to have little interest in the world around them. I always wanted to look at practical examples of what we were talking about in class. This is the end result. 😀
@@JamesKerLindsaythat is a valid argument, however a theoretic Video could help you watchers to make their own conclusions on a variety of cases. A Deep analytisch on one case is limited to its borders
Thanks. That’s why I have a section at the beginning where I do a bit of light theory. I am presenting a problem in IR and explain I’ll look at own case. But hopefully it invites viewers to look at others. But I know what you mean. The problem is that more theoretical topics just don’t do well. It costs a lot to make these videos - in time, effort and money (equipment, subscriptions, software, etc.). Low views means that I earn nothing from the videos - except for the limited income on top that I earn from the kind generosity from channel members and Patreons.
@@JamesKerLindsaythe critic on the Academic ivory tower is valid, but theories can be aplied to many cases, but no case repeats Ursels completly.
In my studies I had learned the grand theories and some middle ranged ones. The latter are far more useful, but can have unintended concequences. E.g. I see Paul Pierson‘s and Mahoney‘s theories of path depency everywhere, ever since I had applied those in my M.A. Thesis. Therefore, I have developed a pretty predeterministic view on things, even though I know, that that is not the case
@@JamesKerLindsay do you know the UA-cam Channel of @William Spaniel? He is also an IR/IPE scientist on UA-cam. In the past he had published many videos on Game theory in the international relations. Now it is always on Ukraine. I guess, that he also made the experience, that those videos receive a higher audience
Just found you tonight. BSc LSE 2001. You are *fantastic*!!
Thank you so much! And a very warm welcome to the channel. It’s always especially nice to hear from anyone with an LSE connection! 😀
Great video - as always! I think support for independence from a stable, prosperous democracy is nearly impossible to sustain for long enough to see it happen. It's a very different story when independence is a matter of life and death, as it is in an unfortunate number of places around the world. I never really paid a huge amount of attention to Catalonia, so thank you for the update!
if you go to any part of Catalonia, you might notice its not so much a defeated Independence, but just one put on hold and leaderless, as the vast majority of flags you will see anywhere in Catalonia is the Separatist flag.
@@sergiogcollado That's not true. Catalans, whether pro-independence or pro-Spain, tend to get along quite well. Even in the midst of the whole conflict, people would tolerate each other. Go with a Spanish national shirt in Catalonia, and nothing will happen. Go with an independence flag or even a normal Catalan senyera in Spain... well, not so sure.
@@bernatrosell1265 I can attest to that. I lived in Barcelona for a little over two years and whenever I wore my Spanish national team shirt, nothing happened to me. No insults, no violence, nothing. However, it should be said that Barcelonians are pretty divided on the issue of independence. If I had worn my Spanish national team shirt in a place where most people are pro-independence (such as Vic or anywhere in the Girona province) something bad might have happened to me.
@@jaytelfer3984 Nothing would have happened to you, of course. The worst possible scenario is that you get a nasty comment from someone, but even that is unlikely. We are used to living together, despite having different political opinions and aspirations. If you don't provoke, disrespect, or insult anyone's sensibilities, people are chill, even in predominantly pro-independence municipalities. Catalonia is quite peaceful, and aggressions overwhelmingly come from pro-Spain fascist individuals.
@@sergiogcolladoI don't see Vox, Ciudadanos, or PP being that silent, to be honest. Nobody is forcing anyone. We are a bilingual society with two (actually three) official languages, and we are lucky to be able to grow up speaking several languages. Why is that a bad thing? It's funny how some people would like Catalans to be monolingual. The only reason for wanting people to be monolingual is nationalism; otherwise, it makes no sense. If you were Catalan, you would know that the immersive system in Catalan is flawed and that many schools use Spanish when teaching and addressing students. But let's pretend that's not happening, that everything is in Catalan. The school is the only safe space for Catalan to thrive and, again, to ensure a bilingual society, which everyone not stained by nationalism would agree is better than being monolingual. I would be okay with a 50%-50% ratio, as long as we apply the same ratio to all other domains. Would you be up for it? :-) We love languages, do you?
In a downfall because Catalans were persecuted silenced and replaced
This isn't the 90s anymore. There are simply too many International interests tied up in the Europe union now to let any new independence movements succeed. Maybe post brexit UK but even that's pushing it.
#FreeCatalonia
Thank you so much for this, I’ve been quite curious of where the impetus had gone.
Thanks. Yes, it receives very little international attention these days. I thought it might be good to cover it.
@@JamesKerLindsayI still think you are heavily biased towards western Europe and America while your choice of words reflect your bias when you talk about unfriendly countries to the West
I live in South América. My father is from Barcelona, and he always says that he considers himself Spanish and proud to be from Cataluña.
Catalunya isnt spain
This reminds me of the situation of Quebec in Canada.
I do wonder about the turnout. Can such a measure be considered successful if less than 50% of the electorate participated?
Thanks. I think most observers would fully agree. It would need a 50% turnout to be legitimate (legality is a different issue).
@@JamesKerLindsay with a turnout of 50%, given that with a 43% there was a 90% in favour of independence, the option for the secession (even given that the other 7% would have voted against it) would have won. the point is.. in a referendum where everybody can go to vote, you can't give more importance to those who decide to not vote (so you dont know their opinion) than to those that decide to go to vote. Are the ones who go to vote that count. and, given the circumstances, a 43% turnout was a really high one. if i remember correctly, the brexit referendum had even lower turnout, and they were not under any threat of police violence for voting. and no one said that, since the turnout did not reach 50%, the referendum was not valid.
dismissing a 43% turnout so easily does not seem very ethic to me, .. while i know that was on of the pivotal points of the spanish argumentation.
An interesting contrast to Scotland and the United Kingdom: a lawful and free independence vote with open debate led to defeat. Yet opinion polling appears to show an ebb and flow of support depending on various issues both inside and outside Scotland. My feeling has long been that Scotland will eventually become independent but, unlike Catalonia, I can see the argument growing more difficult to make.
I support both!
I think it will be important to see how Starmer does. If he is a disaster I think support for Scottish independence will go up again.
A few years ago I had a business meeting over the web with a customer based in Barcelona. I started out by saying, in Catalan - which I'd looked up, and rehearsed - that I was sorry I don't speak Catalan, but I hope we have a good meeting anyway. The guys in Barcelona were ecstatic, to hear my few mangled Catalan phrases. They said I had to come and visit in person, they would give me the best tour of Bacelona and Catalonia!! Sadly I still haven't made it, but I vividly remember their utter joy at hearing their culture acknowledged. It was way beyond polite pre-meeting chitchat, it was like I'd been adopted as an honorary Catalonian citizen. Made a big impression on me. So I'm not giving up on Catalonian independence, just yet ...
Catalonia in part suffers from the Scottish problem. When those in Madrid most likely to come to an accommodation are in the ascendancy support for pro independence parties reaches a low. Conversely when those that ignore regional concerns are in power the pro independence parties get a surge on support but then the regional government can't achieve their stated goals.
I think their best hope lies in greater devolved powers or federalism, they need to seek allies in other regions. Equally the centre needs to find a way to accommodate Catalonian desires whilst minimising the risk to the state, this probably requires a degree of constitutional reform.
Scotland is an existing kingdom within the UK, and Catalonia has never been an existing kingdom, but a depending county. Thus, Scotland case of independence would and could be taken in consideration, while Catalonia's case is just absurd.
@@rafaeltemplario Catalonia was a principallity within the crown of aragon and had it's own institutions and parliment. It was de facto independent aswell as the kingdom of valencia and the kingom of mallorca. The Crown of Aragon was a very descentralised state
Thanks as always Prof 👍🏻🇦🇺👍🏻
🙏🙏🙏🙏 I’m married to a Spanish 👸 .., travel to Fayon… (battle of Ebro) on the border with Aragon..
Profoundly interesting and sadly.. her forebears fought each other.. families against families…. Just how lucky I am to be born this period.. & in NZ🇳🇿
Thanks. It is always interesting to consider how countries once fought within their current borders and yet can coexist today - albeit sometime rather uneasily. The same obviously applies to England and Scotland.
@@JamesKerLindsay
lol we did a tour of Scotland in 2019.., man there’s a real/ wonderful? chip on shoulder up there…, end of 3 weeks I hated the English as well😂, I’m English / Irish…
Then there’s NZ being a bit o unicorn/ simple/ young.., but that’s if you ignore our wars of colonialism..
Great vids🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
@@JamesKerLindsay
Your vids/ our visit to Fayon.., reminds me of our Ww2 mum.. tells us complaining kids.. “quiet now… you don’t even know you are alive….. nothing to complain about”
As an adult it has me think of her huge empathy .., having watched Europe & our Pacific burn… from her small NZ homeland…
I see now that the suffering in Ww2 was beyond comprehension 🌹
@tigertiger1699 Thank you. This is so true. It is easy for us to forget. This is the problem. As the WWII generation has left us people no longer have a living tie to the human tragedy of the war. Interestingly, in 2016, the WWII generation in Britain in fact broke for Remain. My grandmother, a physio nurse during WWII opposed leaving. And I met a soldier from the war on the morning of the vote who passionately opposed Leaving. They knew the damage of the war and the benefits of European unity. They would be horrified to see the rise of the far-right!
@@JamesKerLindsay
Mate….. so true.. i understand the Māori have a saying “we are all in the Waka (canoe) together”
And a Māori Chief/ King said of the most important thing “it is people, it is people, it is people”
Surely we must stand against what is happening to Ukraine…, as you say.. that generation learnt the hard way .. the cost of appeasement 🌹
Both in Catalan and Scottish independence movement soldier on , but even with majority for independence, it would still leave 40% + of the people wanting to stay in Britain and Spain respectively. As the disastrous UK referendum in 2016 to leave the EU with a tiny majority has solved nothing and created major economic and division problems and resentment on both sides. Home rule max by all means, but independence is a false project.
Well, if you cannot get international recognition on independence from other countries, it means absolutely nothing. Look at the states that constituted the Confederacy during the American Civil War in 1860s.
Gràcies per posar subtítols en català!
Thank you! I thought it was appropriate. 😀 Were they OK? I used Google translate. It seems quite good these days. But some languages are better than others.
An interesting detail to add is that there's a notable geographic divide between more metropolitan and coastal zones compared with rural and less dense ones, with each being against and in favour of independence respectively.
As for the latest regional election, you oversimplified things quite a lot by not mentioning how many seats each party got. It would have also been good to mention the Spanish constitution's rule of not allowing separation and how it conflicts with the UN's principle of self-determination (something rather common in many countries).
In the 2017 referendum I see a lot of people forgetting to mention the police, quite literally, stealing ballots from people's hands and firing plastic balls to protesters and having conflicts with the regional police. It was a crackdown more brutal than what we usually see in other protests.
Overall, while the summary is correct, it remains too superficial and doesn't talk in more detail about the actual leverage each faction had during the events.
You didn't mention two important things that matter here. Because Catalonia has the strong economy, it attracted the most immigrants. Today only about half the population is actual catalonian. The rest is from other provinces or the Americas (only speak Castellano) or from non- Spanish- speaking countries. (speak Castellano as a second language)
The catalonian independence- movement was mostly driven by the same as brexit; propaganda and mislead feelings. It lacked the same; facts and a plan.
In addition the supporting parties were politically as disrupted as the rest of Spain is. (unlike the Scots) Even the most battle harded and stubborn separatist couldn't but notice what a desaster brexit was for the UK. At least some of them used the time well to reconsider.
In the end the movement will further lose momentum as people will arrange themselves with the situation. (like in Südtirol)
Thanks. Great point about immigration. This also applied to Scotland, but in rather interesting ways. I was up there for the referendum. Some EU citizens said they supported independence. Others were worried about what it would mean for Scotland in the EU and so opposed it. (EU and Commonwealth citizens could vote in the referendum.) But I also met a lot who decided not to vote. They just decided that it wasn’t their fight. They saw Scotland as a temporary home and so felt it would be wrong to vote. As for the second point, I was rather astounded by how events played out in 2017. It was clear that there was no plan. Frankly, it would have been better for the pro-independence forces to work on providing a blueprint for an independent Catalonia and show people that they have a firm plan. This was one area where the Scottish Government were excellent prior to the 2014 vote. They laid out exactly what a Scottish state would look like. This stood in complete contrast to Brexit, which was indeed built on lies, false promises and no plan whatsoever!
Just like Québec separatism in 🇨🇦, it becomes dormant after failures of referenda and a more lenient approach from the national government, but I'm sure the Catalan separatism will be reignited once the strongly unionist PP+Vox come to power.
Editing the final 20 seconds could be a bit more legible and structured e.g. : the recommendations more readable than a half second
First viewer from Kenya
Good evening! :-)
Evening professor... It's a pleasure. Very educative clips.
Something not mentioned in the video and very central to the subject is the fact that an independence poll would require amending the Spanish constitution which is particularly hard to do. Even if the central government wanted to grant the referendum their hands would be tied
Additionally it’s not mentioned just how opposed half of the catalans were to independence. In 2017 the largest party in the regional parliament was staunch unionist, but they couldn’t form a majority.
All in all, it is true that many Catalans wanted independence but it’s not properly shown in the video how divisive this matter really was.
Subscribed right away after finishing your informative analysis.
Thank you so much! And a very warm welcome to the channel.
Small correction: the "Estatuto de autonomía" does not define Catalonia as a "nation" (nación in spanish) but as a "nacionalidad", which means the same but not really 🤷🏻♂️
Not that it really matters for the end question IHMO, just to be a bit more exact.
#free_catalonia_from_spanish_occupation!!
If Catalonia gains independence, it's likely that the Basque Country will follow suit. This would mean Spain loses two of its three richest regions, setting a precedent that could destabilize the country further. This issue extends beyond just Catalonia; it’s about the broader implications of such a precedent.
While there are historical reasons for Catalonia’s desire for independence, it’s important to note that Catalans already enjoy a high degree of autonomy. They can speak their language, govern themselves, and have one of the highest incomes in Spain. This isn’t a case of a marginalized region fighting for basic rights; they are far from oppressed.
The claims that Catalonia would be better off without Spain are reminiscent of the rhetoric used by Brexit supporters in the UK- "Take back control." As we now see, that hasn't worked out as promised.
A balanced analysis should consider both the pros and cons of Catalan independence, and the perspectives of both sides. It's crucial to focus on the reasons behind these aspirations and the potential consequences, rather than just the immediate desires.
Thanks for your video which is somehow unclear on certain points. I am a catalan and have experienced this epoch of our history that led to a dangerous division of our society. To start with Catalunya was never, historically an independent state, contrary to other regions such as Serbia who had a kingdom in the middle ages eventually absorbed by the turks. Secondly, what happened was that the socialist government negotiated a new regional constitution for catalunya without consulting with the state council and consittutional court and, guess what, it was unconstitutional. Then the independentist parties decided that at 50% of votes they could unilaterally declare independence and, of course, the central state stoped them. What a surprise. In the end Catalunya is formed a majortiy of Spanish/Catalan loving citizens who understand that together we will do much better. Imagine Texas or Bavaria going roge on the issue of independence, what would the central state do? ....you dam righ, it will stop itt!! So is the independentist movement dead? It is weak right now. History being cyclical we will probably see more coming in the future.
Catalunya was independent spain took it by force
Ireland's journey to independence took about 100 years from 1870 to 1921. It depends on weather the leaders can keep the spirit of independence alive
irish were clamped down on...catalans not
@@joaquingonzalez5095 tell that to the grandmothers and grandfathers being beaten at the polling stations.
@@pwp8737 yeah, I'm sure they died or were severely injured. Also, they were not holding an illicit poll.
yea and the catalan leaders can't.
Sometimes one event can make a huge difference, i.e if it wasn´t for WW1 Ireland might have remained in the UK, but with a lot of devolved powers as per the Home Rule Bill
That was a very nice essay about the topic.
Nicely informative thank you
Thank you so much!
I’m for Catalonia independence, but not surprised Spain says “Stop hammer time.”
i would say it is frozen for this moment but it will be back if issues concerning more autonomy are not addressed. Spain needs to realize that oppressing the feelings are not going to take them away. In order for the feelings to be subsided spain needs to move from a unitary state to a system where the primary role lies with the regions and where the central government is only there to handle general issues like defense or foreign affairs. If they keep it the way things are it will only increase the calls for independence again
I have to disagree, the demographics aren't really in catalonia's favour. The people who want independence are going to be an increasingly shrinking minority with aging population immigration enmigration and globalisation in general ect. Sadly I can't really see it lasting as a distinct culture for more than a generation or two more.
What advice to do have for the self-determination of the Western Cape from South Africa?
Good question. The critical thing in all these cases is building up the internal case for self-determination and independence. Pushing to secede without the support of the SA Government is a recipe for failure. States do not like secession, especially in Africa. None will want to go against SA. Invariably this is a slow process. But it would need to focus on the positive case for separation.
This will run and run. But I wonder how many people reflect about the wider stability of the area. After all both Catalans and Basques consider parts of France theirs. It might seem unhighly unlikely that the Rousillon or Pau might want to leave France but if the Spanish regions become independent that would be am entirely ball game. Same thing with Catalan speaking 4:44 areas in neighbouring Aragon like Matarrana. This all seems like a hornet nest to me, with dire consequences for Europe in general.
Independence never comes cheap.... ask Vietnam, Algeria, Bangladesh, East Timor, Ireland, even Afghanistan......
Looks like Madrid was against a "two-state solution" for Catalonia. Oh the irony !
Ironically, recently Madrid entity has attempted to recognize Palestine as a state. Madrid hypocrites have spit on Catalan faces.
I guess Shari'a law state is closer than an independent Catalonia.
Catalan separatists are not a majority in Catalonia, but certainly they scream louder than the rest and that gives a mistaken idea of what catalan people rally wants.
Subtitle is not available in this video. It is difficult to understand without subtitle.
Sorry. That’s strange. I uploaded subtitles. I always do. What a language are you looking for?
@@JamesKerLindsay English or Burmese
Spain looks like a s show with Sanchez. they deserve a better PM
Spain absolutely isn´t a shitshow under this government, if anything it´s doing comparatively well compared to most EU countries, i.e the economy is growing reasonably well, it´s managed to repeal a lot of the worst Rajoy legislation, it´s restored research and development funding.
Yes, it isn´t perfect and hasn´t got everything right but it´s one of the better Spanish governments and dare I say one of the better ones in the EU.
I really hate how people seem to think that their opinion overrides actual facts.
Often wondered how that story ended. On a similar but much smaller scale, we see cases in the U.S., where parts of prosperous conservative states, and large city suburbs where a centralized “Democratic Party” (effectively the Socialist/ Communist Party) has established one-party rule, and stolen all the wealth. People push to form a new city, or break away from the disastrous, authoritarian “Democratic Party” run state.
But rather than seek the unrealistic goal of forming a new “independent” state, their goal is usually to focus on breaking away from the corrupt socialist run state or city, and merge with a neighboring conservative state or municipality, run by the Republican Party. And they are often successful.
Obviously the Catalonian leaders overplayed their hand. But it should be noted, they were peaceful, nevertheless, in the face of state violence, driven by the socialists, who are ALWAYS quick to use the power of the state to force their will on people.
Notice the glaring hypocrisy of Spain’s socialist leaders today, who are first in line to recognize a nonexistent “Palestinian state” abroad, effectively canceling another country, while violently suppressing legitimate calls for statehood at home.
It is likely over until the next time, as it was settled until recently after the last time.
As an outsider, Galicians seems to be more different to the rest of Spain than Catalonia but yet they are very much Spanish. This Catalonia independence talk is ridiculous, as ridiculous as Liverpool should have its own state because of their dialect difference from most of England
it isn't ridiculous. in Catalonia, we don't only just speak a different language, but have many political and cultural differences. before calling something 'ridiculous', do your research.
Now that you have done Catalonia you also have to do the Basque Country
Thanks. You’re right. I really should take a look at this too.
0:55 Many of the listed countries were not "new countries created following the collapse of the soviet union", but countries that regained their independence.
Some were. Some weren’t. Some were, but weren’t. It was all rather confusing. Ukraine and Belarus were already UN members, but no one would call them states before 1991. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania did regain their independence, but they had never been UN members.
He would rather the Soviet Union hadn't collapsed and probably would like to see these "new" countries subsumed back into the empire again.
@@JamesKerLindsay Blanket statement of "new countries" is demonstrably incorrect, and only plays into Russian imperialist narratives.
What many don't know is that Greater Catalonia would be a lot bigger. Valencia would be part of it (Valencian is considered by many to be a Catalonian dialect, while centralists, in order to weaken the irredentism, consider it to be a separate language), smaller other bits and Andorra as well. I think even a small part of south east France as well. Catalonian irredentism.
Valencian is indeed a dialect, Catalan and Valencian are the same language. Even Valencian academics accept this.
Not over at all. Amnesty means nobody did anything wrong. Obviously. Free Catalonia!!!!!
It is good to have friends. Might there be a middle way?
Please, upload about Arakan which want independence from Myanmar. Arakan was a kingdom country for thousands of year.
Independence of Catalonia will be the beginning of the end of Spain. Seventeen small republics will substitute the Kingdom. Happened in Yugoslavia, Russia and the American ex-colonies .
Thanks. The fear that other parts will follow is often a reason why countries oppose secession. But is it such a big threat in Spain? I could see the Basque Country going its own way. But do you think others would really follow?
@@JamesKerLindsay
Galician
Balears
Canarians
Maybe also Asturians
Navareans with baske
Valencians
I never understood what Catalonya expected to gain. In the longer run, they would still want to be in the EU, so there would be no borders with Spain, and there would be a shared currency.
I think part of the problem lies with the apparent indifference of Valencia and of the Balearic Islands to the question.
Both regions share a distinct cultural identity and a different language (both of which, in their turn, are close to Catalonia) but both of them appear to be content of their current situation.
On the other hand, the refusal of the US and the EU to deal with the fledgling state was painfully antidemocratic.
Hardly our place to deal with the situation, I would say. If you want to be upset with someone, be upset with the EU. The US is going to stay out of something like that unless it's absolutely necessary.
As Catalans are Richer they just want to pay less taxes and not fund poorer provinces, thats the difference really.
@@jeffmorris5802 Point is, the US didn't "stay out". They actively refused to acknowledge Catalonia. Therefore your comment doesn't make a lot of sense.
@@idraote That IS staying out. The US wouldn't acknowledge Catalonia unless Spain and the EU did first.
@@jeffmorris5802
we apparently use different dictionaries.
In mine, ""staying out"" would have been not saying anything or releasing some noncommittal statement.
I literally sent a paper regarding this exact topic just before opening youtube and seeing this video, what a coincidence ahahahah
Haha! Sorry I didn’t do this a week earlier in that case. What do you make of the situation?
@JamesKerLindsay To be honest I'm not sure. On one side the victory of the Psc at the catalan election seems to indicate that catalans like Sanchez' approach to Catalunya, but on the other it's almost impossible that decades of demands for independence disappear in such a short time...
This most recent independence move by Catalonia always seemed to me as one without a good reason. They seem to be making a circular argument that they are being oppressed because they aren't allowed to declare independence. So they have to declare independence. I think a nation first has to make a strong case for how they are being harmed, one that isn't entirely historical, but based on ongoing and current violations to the rights of the people of the region involved. I think a historical argument can be made here. But as for modern examples, we seem to be lacking those. With most separatists movements around the world, you can often immediately grasp why people chose to separate and even take up arms to do it. Not here. One of their complaints seems to be that their region is one of the most prosperous in the country and should be taxed less. That's some white people problem right there.
Yeah, but despite the rhetoric, it's not down to money. The economic motivation is continually rolled out in the Spanish press because Catalans are stereotyped as being mean. In my experience, people want independence for cultural motivations much more than for economic reasons.
I don't think there needs to be any demonstrated harm, but basically just the will of the people should be enough. With some practical limitations though, like that not every small village can become independent if people just vote for it.
its usually better to be independent because you will just end up with cultural and political conflicts
Yeah they're not some oppressed exploited minority group in some forgotten neglected region put the country. They're the rich part of Spain who doesn't want to have to pay for the poor parts of Spain anymore. Not quite the same but you can also make the same argument for Somali land.
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 But this just isn’t true. It’s not about paying for the rest of Spain. I know many Catalans who would keep paying the same for many decades in return for independence. In my experience they just want to make their own decisions in their own country.
Breaking Spain is insanity. Spain is a realitivly small state with a unified history. This is an opportunity to walk with 20% of Spanish wealth
"unified history"
Similar to the "unified history" of Great Britain and Ireland... Unified is a great code word here
@@someoneinoffensive Britain occupied Ireland and then used religion as an excuse for oppression.
Scotland and England merged via Act of Union w/a Scotish king, James I, on the English thrown. Fast forward today, and "unified" translates into a more powerful state on the global stage. The same can be said regarding Catalonia or Northern Italy. If EU members begin to splinter, then, by default, Brussels ends up with enhanced powers without strong nation states to act as a check and balance. Furthermore, borders are constructed to contain wealth. Catalonia and Aragon, Since Queen Isabella, have been part of the kingdom. Independence is a means of hoarding wealth and is a short- sighted temptation.
Freedom to Catalonia!
They're already free?
Freedom from traitorous independence movements
@@alexturlais8558 They are preyed upon by Spain.
@@AFVEH It makes the citizens live worse.
@@cezarstefanseghjucan What makes citizens live worse?
"From the river to the sea..." 😊
Free, Free Palestine
Earth will be slam free
Earth will be ilam free
If Catalonia's sovereignty movement is anything like Québec's it's just one slight (perceived or not) away from reigniting at any moment.
Wow. having watched this video in full now, there is a stark difference between how the Prof presents Spanish assertion of sovereignty in Catalonia with how he presents Chinese assertion of sovereignty in HK. No innuendo or snide remarks about the Spanish government. Despite the fact that, objectively, China's CCP has outperformed any Spanish government by an order of magnitude.
I’m not sure I see the link. You are comparing two very different things. I was very clear that HK is part of China. What I raised was the way that China has undermined its promise to maintain a separate system. In effect it has undermined HK’s autonomy and democracy. Catalonia remains democratic and autonomous. No countries in the world permit unilateral secession. Spain stopped it from happening. China would do the same. And if HK had tried to secede then the comparison would perhaps be valid. (Although I would have explained why it didn’t have the right to do so.) In effect, you are comparing apples and oranges, as we say. The discussion is not about democracy in both cases. And it isn’t about secession in both videos. It is about secession in one, and autonomy and democracy in the other.
@@JamesKerLindsay In Western discourse, there is a clear undertone of undermining China's sovereignty in HK. They just cloak this intent by using words like "democracy". Western narrative surrounding democracy in HK is really about resentment of Chinese sovereignty over the territory. Excuse me if i don't find Western support of democracy in HK convincing. Britain governed HK for well over a century without allowing democracy - a point I'm sure you've heard many times, but nevertheless rings true. "Democracy" and autonomy in HK were being used as trojan horses to discredit Chinese rule. Furthermore any assertion of Chinese sovereignty in HK is portrayed as an attack on democracy. National security laws are a prime example of this. Bitterly criticized in the West. However, those same countries condemning China usually have far more stringent national security laws in their own countries.
Post handover HK was always about sovereignty. It was never really about democracy. So we can make the comparison with Catalonia in my opinion.
No. There isn’t any attempt to undermine China’s sovereignty over Hong Kong. I was clear. HK is utterly unviable without China’s support. And no one seriously believes that it could break away. Don’t read things into situations that aren’t there. It is bad analysis.
@JamesKerLindsay I don't know how one can come to the conclusion that china's sovereignty in hk isn't being undermined in western commentary. Every article and news report has been scathing of Chinese rule. Discourse, for example, that attempts to define hk language and culture as somehow not Chinese is also an attempt to undermine china's sovereignty. You see this, too, with Taiwan, as if the fujian dialect spoken in TW is somehow not Chinese. Analysis that defines hk as "not chinese", that portrays any Chinese central government authority in hk as illegitimate, these narratives are all designed to undermine china's sovereignty.
Free Catalonia!!!
You forgot to mention the Iberians who replaced the Greeks way before the arrival of Carthaginians and Romans in the 3rd c. BC. Iberians is what the greeks called the population in Catalonia
D'història una mica fluixet, mestre
❤❤❤
No such thing as "final victory".
Indeed. That was my point. Independence sentiment remains strong. It is down, but not out.
Voting for an independentist party doesn't make you an independentist, a lot of people do that because they want a more descentraliced state, not a full independence
Cucurella, a catalan , cross the ball for Oyarzabal, a basque, to make their Country champions of europe once more: SPAIN, ESPAÑA
Pedro is a traitor.
OK. I’ll bite. Why?
@@JamesKerLindsay Pedro Sanchez promised that he wont pardon the coupist, promised that wont be amnesty/amnesy, promised not forgive the debt, promised thay wont be fiscal pact...
Every true patriotic Albanien that loves Kosovo should support oppressed Catalonian people. But they need to learn from Kosovo model. Independence is not gained just true voting… First is forming of freedom fighters paramilitary formation, than open military conflict, and than media war against the imperial Spanish boots, and after Nato military intervention against the Spain, you can hope for unilateral independence voting.
That won't work the west dosent hate Spain like they hate Serbia two different models.
That wouldn't work for the simple reason the west dosent hate Spain like they hate Serbia.
So start a fight and lose so bad you get bailed out ln pity? That's a bold strategy cotton let's see if it works out for them
I have a very hard time of separating Catalonia independence from the similar stylings of the CSA and the Confederate States of the America both were very spectacular failure attempts at secession
And both of them attempted to rip the very fabric of the unity of the nation in question
Needless to say I don't see myself currently giving much support to Catalonia
But as a non Spaniard maybe I just don't know enough and should I reconsider? 🤔 It's very difficult to know when and where you should and shouldn't offer support to separatist movements around the world
Catalonia has its own language and culture, the confederate states were just trying to keep their slaves
Catalans want more autonomy from Spain while staying in the EU, Catalonia gives more in taxes towards the central government than it receives in investments, Catalonia is on average more prosperous and with higher productivity than the Spanish average.
@@gawkthimm6030 This sounds better on your head than it is. It’s a simple case of selfishness and never a better way of showing that than with your words
not the best comparison catalonia has it's culture since medieval times, it wants what's best for their nation. The confederates wanted the right to enslave other human beings.
@@bfedezl2018 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Countries#Cultural_dimension
Having seen what's happened to independent UK now that it's outside the EU, there'sa lot less support for separating from economic and political unions, don't you think?
Thanks. Good point. I think that many in Catalonia would want clarity on what its status would be in the EU. There was no way it could join if it seceded from Spain without Madrid’s permission. Butter assumptions that if the Spanish Government agreed then it could join. My own view is that the EU has made independent statehood more viable for smaller European states.
The Principality of Catalonia didn't enjoy "considerable autonomy" but de facto ruled the Kingdom of Aragon, which only kept the name. The king was of Catalan lineage and the court was located in Barcelona.
You are spreading the Castilian version of History.
No. I’m trying to condense down a complex history into a bit of readily understandable background for people trying to make sense of what is happening today. I appreciate the response. But also remember that this isn’t a full course of Catalan history. It is a 10-15 minute video. I try to write things as best I can for an audience that invariably knows very little about a topic.
@@JamesKerLindsay Fair enough, but your source is clearly Spanish, a country where the truth has no value. I know that History is written by victors, but it's still shocking to hear some misleading claims that reinforce Spanish lies like the one saying that Catalans have never been independent. Spain claims that, at that time, Catalonia was rule by what today is Aragon, which is what one understands from your explanation, whereas in reality the Crown of Aragon was a kind of confederation (Principality of Catalonia, Kingdom of Aragon and Kingdom of Valencia) ruled by what today is Catalonia. Catalonia started losing its independence in 1412 when, at the Compromise of Caspe. The Catalan king having died without descendants, a group of emissaries from the three entities of the confederation had to choose the new king. After much controversy, a smaller group of emissaries, irregularly determined at the behest of one of the candidates, voted for that candidate, who belonged to a Castilian royal family (Trastámara). After that, the Crown of Aragon quickly fell into the sphere of influence of Castile. SO the reality is that Catalonia was de facto independent from year 985 to late 15th century. As always, Castile cheating, lying and dedicating itself to extracting the wealth of others. Exactly the same as today.
In the light of Spain's recent recognition of an independent Palestinian state (one run by Hamas terrorists, apparently), one has to ask: are chants of "from the river to the sea, Catalonia will be free" justified?
The current Spanish government is held in coalition power by separatist parties. They just pardoned a bunch of separatists. This socialist government is a disaster for Spain, and probably will be annihilated in the next elections.
That's not separatism. Spain like most of the world doesn't recognise Israel's claim to anything beyond the 1967 borders
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 Just a small correction, kindly : When the masses chant "From the River to the Sea" (including a minister in the government of Spain), it means they do not recognize the 1967 borders ! It means they do not recognize Israel's right to exist at all !!!
@@ronishwartz not separatism, dont care
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 The minister who announced the decision said "from the river to the sea," not "from the river to the pre-1967 borders."
Swag 😎
Coincidentally - or maybe not - the Catalonian independence movement gains traction when the Left loses power in Madrid.
Good point. It’s actually quite common. Right wing central governments are associated with centralisation and nationalism. They often work against devolved administrations. The left tends to be more own to them. We see it in Britain. With the Tories, the SNP really gained strength. But with every sign that at the Conservatives are on course to be beaten, the SNP looks set to lose a lot of seats to Labour in Scotland. The parallels are interesting.