Świątek didn't even play any grass tournaments this year to get some rest, it's pretty clear the Olympics is her focus. Firstly, it's on clay on her favourite court, secondly her father was an Olympic rower, so it's kinda important for her unlike most tennis players. I'd say Zheng and Osaka will be the dark horses, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised if something crazy happened provided Rybakina and Sabalenka are not fit (Noskova winning for example, attacking tennis + Czechs are always good on grass). No chance for Gauff/Świątek winning it this year IMO.
I wouldn't say it's impossible for Świątek or Gauff to win. Yes, it's the surface on which Swiatek feels the worst, and it's also clearly not her goal for this year; but she's also a very good player on any surface; and her problems with grass seem rather psychological -- so anything is possible.
@@PKowalski2009 Nah, it's not psychological at all. Świątek's game is simply not a good fit for grass: Her topspin forehand is not as effective on fast courts with a low bounce Extreme western grip on the forehand means she has less time to develop angles and defend against big flat shots on a fast surface Her kick serve is not that effective (again, low bounce) and therefore easier to attack. Her slice and volley are average (but that's not that important nowadays) She improved her first serve a lot but still there's room for improvement. Now, she has improved a lot on grass of course. IF her serve is good and IF her forehand is stable and IF she has a good draw without strong grass players and IF there are a lot of upsets, she might win. But that's a lot of ifs.
With all the injuries and illnesses it brings a lot of top players back to the others making it a level playing field. I'd love to see a random outsider win and this year seems a good year for it. I've got grave doubts about Rybakina's health status, but let's just keep hoping. I agree with your assessments Jess, - well put together :)
As for Wimbledon 2024 women, I wouldn't count out Paolini, who can reach the semifinals and even the final. Depends on her ladder. For every player who will meet Iga at this year's Wimbledon, it will be Dead End, no turn around. A street you can't leave without failure.
Sabalenka is questionable also, as she withdrew from Berlin. Hitting every ball as hard as she does, will eventually catch up with her shoulder, elbow and wrist. This is probably the result. Not sure what's going on with Rybakina; she's not fully disclosing the true nature of her health problems. Two weeks' rest after Wimby is plenty of time for Iga to go for the olympic gold.
You never know who be the winer until the tournament finish. I got so many disappointments with my favorite players and stoped dreaming or sending wishes - every one wants to win but will be only one granted 😢🎉
Solid review overall. On Coco, I think this is probably the one of the better places to play Iga and break the curse. Along with the US tournaments. Grass is definitely Iga's worst surface. Also Coco, but less so than Iga. Every last person in the "How are they playing this good" tier has a solid chance of getting the win if they have to play either. Unlike say in Rolland Garros, where it'd be a sizeable upset. Ons, Rybakina and Sabalenka are the people to beat here in my opinion. Tested and proven on this surface. Then you got the unpredictables spot on: Naomi, Bianca and Penko. All former grand slam champions, with weapons that work on grass. Let your faves slip once and it's wraps. Especially if you're Iga against Penko If there was to be a dark horse, i'd 100% go Caro Garcia. Grass suits her and she's got 3 titles to show for it. Hasn't been in the best of form either, but with a decent draw, she could easily go deep. QF or SF.
@@uperiju Can't deny that. Although, she lost to former grand slam winner Sofia Kenin. And that's my point, anyone in top 20 could beat either of them on grass. That's why it's a level field Iga played Lin Zhu, SST(who is terrible on grass), Martic. Then she faces the first real opposition, Bencic. If this was clay, Roland Garros, she'd sweep her 90% of the time. now, it was a 3 setter with 2 tiebreaks going the distance. Then she plays Svitolina, and that's the end of the tournament for her. That's my point there. Kenin, Svitolina, Bencic could beat either one of them on grass half of the time. They are not dominant there. That's why level playing field is best chance for Coco to maybe grind a win out, cuz she's not beating Iga straight up.
@@sylent8428 I would agree here, if Coco would be better player on grass, than she is on other surfaces, but she's weaker, and she just lost in Berlin to Pegula not in her best form, coming after injury. So even when Iga is not great on grass she still has much better tenis than Coco and I don't see any advantage to Coco here. But I agree, there are some other players that play much better than both of them, and it also depends on the draw, but for Iga and Coco being in the final of Wimbledon and Iga not wining - kinda big stretch:)
I think Coco and Katie Boulter have the biggest chances. Coco had an incredible run in Berlin and lost against Pegula solely because of stress (not diminishing Pegula, they were both in equally good form). Katie did really well in Nottingham, she's currently kicking it in Eastbourne. If she doesn't get too tired, she can go very far, because she has the needed variety for grass. It's either that, or it's complete upset and a random player wins. I agree with the rest of what you mentioned, not really betting on Iga, not really betting on Ryba and Saba. Ons, Garcia and Sakkari are shaky or borderline invisible unfortunately.
Both Ryba and Saba with health problems.
Świątek didn't even play any grass tournaments this year to get some rest, it's pretty clear the Olympics is her focus. Firstly, it's on clay on her favourite court, secondly her father was an Olympic rower, so it's kinda important for her unlike most tennis players.
I'd say Zheng and Osaka will be the dark horses, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised if something crazy happened provided Rybakina and Sabalenka are not fit (Noskova winning for example, attacking tennis + Czechs are always good on grass).
No chance for Gauff/Świątek winning it this year IMO.
I wouldn't say it's impossible for Świątek or Gauff to win. Yes, it's the surface on which Swiatek feels the worst, and it's also clearly not her goal for this year; but she's also a very good player on any surface; and her problems with grass seem rather psychological -- so anything is possible.
@@PKowalski2009 Nah, it's not psychological at all. Świątek's game is simply not a good fit for grass:
Her topspin forehand is not as effective on fast courts with a low bounce
Extreme western grip on the forehand means she has less time to develop angles and defend against big flat shots on a fast surface
Her kick serve is not that effective (again, low bounce) and therefore easier to attack.
Her slice and volley are average (but that's not that important nowadays)
She improved her first serve a lot but still there's room for improvement.
Now, she has improved a lot on grass of course. IF her serve is good and IF her forehand is stable and IF she has a good draw without strong grass players and IF there are a lot of upsets, she might win. But that's a lot of ifs.
With all the injuries and illnesses it brings a lot of top players back to the others making it a level playing field. I'd love to see a random outsider win and this year seems a good year for it. I've got grave doubts about Rybakina's health status, but let's just keep hoping. I agree with your assessments Jess, - well put together :)
As for Wimbledon 2024 women, I wouldn't count out Paolini, who can reach the semifinals and even the final. Depends on her ladder. For every player who will meet Iga at this year's Wimbledon, it will be Dead End, no turn around. A street you can't leave without failure.
Sabalenka is questionable also, as she withdrew from Berlin. Hitting every ball as hard as she does, will eventually catch up with her shoulder, elbow and wrist. This is probably the result. Not sure what's going on with Rybakina; she's not fully disclosing the true nature of her health problems. Two weeks' rest after Wimby is plenty of time for Iga to go for the olympic gold.
It looks like some form of long COVID for Rybakina IMO
You never know who be the winer until the tournament finish. I got so many disappointments with my favorite players and stoped dreaming or sending wishes - every one wants to win but will be only one granted 😢🎉
Rybakina if health permits, otherwise Swiatek will surprise and win whole thing.
Kostyuk is definitely unpredictable, she does well in san diego and stuttgart but just disappears, and loses in the second round of roland garros
Solid review overall.
On Coco, I think this is probably the one of the better places to play Iga and break the curse. Along with the US tournaments. Grass is definitely Iga's worst surface. Also Coco, but less so than Iga. Every last person in the "How are they playing this good" tier has a solid chance of getting the win if they have to play either. Unlike say in Rolland Garros, where it'd be a sizeable upset.
Ons, Rybakina and Sabalenka are the people to beat here in my opinion. Tested and proven on this surface.
Then you got the unpredictables spot on: Naomi, Bianca and Penko. All former grand slam champions, with weapons that work on grass. Let your faves slip once and it's wraps. Especially if you're Iga against Penko
If there was to be a dark horse, i'd 100% go Caro Garcia. Grass suits her and she's got 3 titles to show for it. Hasn't been in the best of form either, but with a decent draw, she could easily go deep. QF or SF.
coco is not beating iga ahaha
Coco lost in 1st round Wimbledon last year and Iga made it to QF
@@uperiju Can't deny that. Although, she lost to former grand slam winner Sofia Kenin. And that's my point, anyone in top 20 could beat either of them on grass. That's why it's a level field
Iga played Lin Zhu, SST(who is terrible on grass), Martic. Then she faces the first real opposition, Bencic. If this was clay, Roland Garros, she'd sweep her 90% of the time. now, it was a 3 setter with 2 tiebreaks going the distance. Then she plays Svitolina, and that's the end of the tournament for her.
That's my point there. Kenin, Svitolina, Bencic could beat either one of them on grass half of the time. They are not dominant there. That's why level playing field is best chance for Coco to maybe grind a win out, cuz she's not beating Iga straight up.
@@sylent8428 I would agree here, if Coco would be better player on grass, than she is on other surfaces, but she's weaker, and she just lost in Berlin to Pegula not in her best form, coming after injury. So even when Iga is not great on grass she still has much better tenis than Coco and I don't see any advantage to Coco here. But I agree, there are some other players that play much better than both of them, and it also depends on the draw, but for Iga and Coco being in the final of Wimbledon and Iga not wining - kinda big stretch:)
I think Coco and Katie Boulter have the biggest chances. Coco had an incredible run in Berlin and lost against Pegula solely because of stress (not diminishing Pegula, they were both in equally good form). Katie did really well in Nottingham, she's currently kicking it in Eastbourne. If she doesn't get too tired, she can go very far, because she has the needed variety for grass. It's either that, or it's complete upset and a random player wins. I agree with the rest of what you mentioned, not really betting on Iga, not really betting on Ryba and Saba. Ons, Garcia and Sakkari are shaky or borderline invisible unfortunately.
Can i just vote for Kalinskaya or Naomi? .
I think you'd have to give Coco a very good chance to win Wimbledon. Iga's worst surface is grass, so Coco seems to have a good chance.
But Cocos worst surface is also grass and last year she lost at Round 1, so where is her advantage over Iga here...?
Iga has made it further into Wimbledon than Coco. Everyone is acting like Iga is like Ruud on Grass.
Hurts to see some of my favorite players in the lower tiers🥲...but glad to see Rybakina as a favoritevery reasonable analysis tho...Great vid
Thank you! I would love to see all the players in the lower tiers play great, it would make for a very exciting event