Amid market jitters & guesswork, reading 2014, 2019 poll numbers & gap Modi/BJP rivals must cover
Вставка
- Опубліковано 12 тра 2024
- #CutTheClutter #loksabhaelection2024
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured victory in 105 seats with a margin exceeding 3 lakh votes, marking a significant increase of 63 seats compared to 2014. This highlights the formidable challenge that opposition parties are expected to encounter in the 2024 general elections. With LS polls halfway, in Episode 1449 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta discusses the key numbers, victory margins, momentum of the contesting parties in 2014 & 2019 and what is the distance BJP challengers have to cover to reverse fortunes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
02:34-- BJP's vote share in 2014 and 2019
06:18-- BJP, Congress and others: Vote share, victory margins, hits and losses
11:26-- Percentage wise seat share by different parties in 2014 and 2019
19:04-- BJP’s challengers
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amogh Rohmetra article here: theprint.in/politics/bjp-won-...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
theprint.in/elections/bjp-won...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Exclusive content, special privileges & more - Subscribe to ThePrint for Special benefits: theprint.in/subscribe/
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Connect with ThePrint
» Subscribe to ThePrint: theprint.in/subscribe/
» Subscribe to our UA-cam Channel: bit.ly/3nCMpht
» Like us on Facebook: / theprintindia
» Tweet us on Twitter: / theprintindia
» Follow us on Instagram: / theprintindia
» Find us on LinkedIn : / theprint
» Subscribe to ThePrint on Telegram: t.me/ThePrintIndia
» Find us on Spotify: spoti.fi/2NMVlnB
» Find us on Apple Podcasts: apple.co/3pEOta8
Exclusive content, privileges & more - Subscribe to ThePrint for special benefits: theprint.in/subscribe/
Thank you Mr Gupta. You are the only one who takes Yogendra Yadav seriously. Your reputation is also going down the tank along with him.
Shekhar, about the graphs, as margins increase, are the higher margin numbers also included in lower margin numbers or all are exclusive??? e.g. are the 4 seats won by 6L+ margin, also inclusive in 5L+ bar graph and 4L+ bar graph and so on? or is it exclusive ?
People at "The Print" Please book a psychiatrist in advance coz you are gonna need one on the June 04th.....All your rants and hate propaganda headed by Uncle SG will be silenced....
Yogendra yadav is Politician one day, One day he is a farmer, one day is poll analyst..duggal saab
But Modi is just a liar
Jinka upr ka maala khali wo hi rahul ko support kr skte h@@HeartistMurali
@@HeartistMuraligive me one reason to vote for rahul?
@@HeartistMuralid.i....t..s like u r responsible for why our country was under congress for 70 years with no substantial development
He is urban Naxal
Yogendra Y’s USP is to make predictions and then apologize when they go wrong.
Actually Shri Yoya has NEVER apologized. Nor have any of the Media houses that regularly provide space to idiot have ever questioned his track record.
He makes more of wishful thinking than genuine predictions.
Last time he got angry on Gurgaon’s voters. I’m not wrong, the voters are.
@@mrzib.crimson LOL true, I remember 😂
He is a flop. A congenital liar but we all know why he is featured here.
Yogendra Yadav pr to shekhar sir ko bhi bhrosa nhi 😂😂😂😂😂
Uspe kaun bhaosa karega, usne bhi chalaki se bjp ki seats 220 se 23-240 kar diya 4th phase ke baad, ab dekhna 1 june tak woh bhi bolega bjp ko 270 aa rahe hain.
😂😂😂😂
Khudko use uspar bharosa nahi hai 😅😅😂😂
Maybe, everyone he interviewed, lied to him. 🤣🤣🤣
Market reactions are natural during election times. Nothing to do with the outcome of results.
I am no Mahashri Yogendra Yadav Baba, but i'll quote the time tested saying - "Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics". Two things are going in favor of the BJP 1) its unmatchable and even enviable Organization 2) It is once again a Presidential style Modi vs Rahul Gandhi election. Based on what I observed during my constituency's voting phase, I can safely say that the BJP organization is running round the clock. BJP workers arranged coolers, water, softdrinks for voters during the voter, while INC booth workers didn;t even arrange any shade. BJP organization ensured voter turn out. Of course, it is possible that the people that people could have voted against Modi which we shall know only on June 4. However, Congress simply does NOT have the logistics to counter the BJP and Rahul getting so easily overshadowed by Kejriwal itself tells you the status of Rahul Gandhi in an average Indian's mindscape. Congress needs to address its structural malice.
Say Saleem maulvi....he is not a hindu but a mussadi....
This is almost right 💯
That's accurate no party today can match the organisational capabilities of the BJP. I observed the same at booth level, and on my booth INDIA alliance representatives were sitting away using phones, while BJP representatives were giving water, helping elderly people, and managing queues. Also my father was on election duty on one booth and BJP representatives arranged lunch for ell officials (even though it's the department's responsibility).
I can't believe how INDIA alliance can think of winning with such a weak organisation.
Because of congress parties Bank account seized
@@JOHNSON-xt5gi Nope. A lien of 115 crores. Meaning they were free to withdraw money except 115 crores.
If pulwama was a factor in 2019, then ram mandir too is a factor in 2024. The voters who voted for bjp "ONLY" for pulwama ( if any), will this time vote for bjp again because of ram mandir. I do not think voters are that stupid that they will only vote because of these emotional events. BJP has transformed the lives and livelihoods of many Indians especially in rural areas and that is why the rural folk too vote for BJP.
So are electoral bonds, paper leaks, inflation, unemployment, prajwal revanna, farmers protest, and the fatigue
“Fatigue” - what a stupid argument. Congress ruled more than 50 years, why not Modi for another 10 years ?
@pinchofsalt4380 ignorant so scamgress TMC DMK TRS TDP did not receive the electoral bonds if they claim electoral bonds is a scam.then.why they accepted this in first place regarding revanna he is a JD party member it is an individual act can't rewind what NT Diwari ex scamgress minister did as a.governor go and check chamcha
"BJP has transformed the lives and livelihoods of many indians".
Based on which data u r saying this?
Did u see any data which suggested that?
The income of the bottom 5% of Indians is already getting less income. Income stagnant for the middle class.
The same way, GDP growth is less than previous UPA 10 years.
Unemployment is record high.
So I am amazed at which data point, u r saying that lives of Indians are changed. I assume u r talking about+ve change. If u r talking about -ve change then I agree. 🙂
By the way, Modi ji also doesn't believe in his Vikas. He only knows Hindu Muslim, Pakistan.
@@pinchofsalt4380I think 1st time you are seeing all the issues.
Dear Mr Gupta, by having Yogendra Yadav run his articles in Print, you are damaging already thin credibility of ThePrint. Least you could have done is review his track record for 2019 assembly polls and 2022 UP polls. He failed miserably in his predictions because his research is agenda based. Anyway…till June 5th Modi will get defeated every day ! And then there will be June 4th to start blaming EVMs, polarization etc 😀
Don't worry about print's credibility, indian television news media is not any better North Korea.
indian media has become a laughing stock in the past 10 years. It is destroying india's image worldwide.
Amit shah in every election says he is going to win but half of the time he loses.
It would not be surprising if he loses again
😂😂
Who told you that The Print has thin credibility? Been reading Godi media, are we?
We are graduates from dhruv rathee university. Only lodi and lutyens media for us.
@@Contractor48 He is Andbhakton ka Badru Rashid🤣🤣🤣
Has Yogendra Yadav ever been correct?
He makes wishful thinking rather than genuine predictions.
😂😂😂😂😂
He is Really Frustrated and Desperate now... Poor Guy... Really feel Sad for him...😊😊😊
@@vijaymaske1322 Are you paying 1250 Rs gas cylinder which is supposed to be 450 Rs? This is what the issue in this election.
2014 - RSS created Vinod Rai and Anna hazare to steal the election.
2019 - RSS created Pulwama and steal the election.
Both dramas were exposed big time. This election there is no gimmick and nothing helps RSS and Modi.
You cannot fool people always. It is their turn this time.
Yes 2019 he was right he predicted 300+
Yesterday Yogendra was on Sardesai's TV debate with economist Surjit Bhalla and psephologist Pradeep Gupta. He started off with great bluster that BJP would be crushed. Then he toned it down slightly to say they would get less than 272 seats and then subsequently said they might just scrape through. As proof he said he had talked to some handful of persons around the country and they had given the opinion that they would not be voting for BJP this time. Bhalla on the other hand had done a scientific analysis of the historical data and concluded BJP would get close to 330 seats. Pradeep Gupta was not willing to commit anything initially but when he heard Yogendra persisting with his vague predictions, he came out and said clearly that the BJP would do very well in unexpected places. Yogendra has turned so hostile to Modi that his psephology is now tailored to always show BJP losing badly.
Shekar's reputation was at stake. Good video to put Yogendra to his place
How is his reputation at stake?
Shekhar Sir has to forcibly make detailed videos in response to shri shri shri shri yogendra yadav's rubbish and stupid predictions.
Nah not prediction. More of wishful thinking.
His true name is Saleem, he changed name to get acceptance.....
@@rajendrajasathy4356 So you are trying to imply that he thinks Muslims don't get acceptance in India? That makes him a bloody hypocrite.
That's not prediction. That's his tactics to appease his followers.
@@rajendrajasathy4356 Dhruv Rathi's real name is Badru Rashid😂😂😂
Yogendra Salim Yadav is a tail which is making the Shekhar Gupta wag 😂
😂
nah, he is wagging his tail for gappu
The number of people who have stopped watching your content should be an indicator for you how much you are connected to the common masses. When you loose that connect you no longer find yourself in a position to predict what the mood of people is. P.S you need to introspect into statistics of your channel first.
You may be hundred percent right in your opinion but can't be so blunt against SG
Most of media people never understand BHARAT. They are from India.😅😅
Because people like SG have a cosmopolitan and forward mindset.However there are deyhatis exception like Anrab and Navika who are regressive.
@@chiruboy23bjp has done better job than congress ever did in 30 years
They must and they will come to power !
@@chiruboy23no s.a.n...would ever choose rahul over modi
@@drg598Better job? The unemployment rate is soaring, inequality is higher than it was under British times, society is extremely polarized, Manipur is still burning, China continues to patrol former Indian checkposts at Galwan, food standards have dropped, the Air Force is stuck at a measly number of 32 combat squadrons (IAF doctrine prescribes a minimum of 42 btw), our infantrymen wear plate carriers from the 80s, I could go on and on.
I'm not going to deny that UPA rule had it's own drawbacks in terms of Islamist terrorism and higher inflation but I absolutely CANNOT agree that the BJP is any better than the INC.
Don't cite growth to me. We are at a phase where the GDP will grow no matter who comes in power (unless it's outright communists).
@@somerandomguy9125 bjp currently is any day better than rahul leading congress
Ppl hv hopes from them
Giving them governance 3rd time is only good option
Those relying on dhruv rathee and yogibdra yadav for their election 😂what can u expect from them, as i always said no election in history of India is decided few weeks of campaigning, after first phase voting returned to normal, in states where their is fierce fight like west bengal, odisha, telangana, Andhra pardesh we are seing high turnout, no election result are changed few tweets or slogans in election campaign, opposition simply don't have what it takes to change govt at national level, especially after December election humbling and crbling of indi alliance post mamata, nitish departure it was fait accompli for this a
Go to hell with your farrzzi thought process.
Mudi relying on Lies, Jumlas & Godi Media.
Given the current options, anyone believes in nation building/India first theory, will vote for BJP, period.
It’s an unfortunate state that INC is playing state election themes at national level with no long term vision.
Playing Hindu caste census against Muslim reservations, freebies etc won’t lost long, rather Congress’s downfall will be synonymous that of Mani Shankar Aiyar😂😂
ha ha ha modi ne khudh muslims ko OBC ka quota diya ha gujrat main
SG should stop letting people like Yogendra yadav turnish credibility of the print.
Honestly, even during 2019 elections there were hopes that the BJP will not be able to repeat its 2014 performance. Back then, Balakot was dismissed as a factor that would influence 2019 elections. It is only now that i hear people like Rajdeep Sardesai talk of 2019 as a wave election, driven by balakot. Similarly, people like VY analysing these elections, at this point, fail to account for Ram Mandir.
Additionally, it is unlikely that traditional BJP voters will en mass vote against the BJP. I say this because ideological poles are all the more rigid now.
Being a statistician myself, i know that the respondents tend to give answers that they believe the enumerator is looking for. No wonder so many exit polls fail.
Additionally, what many pollsters seem to conveniently ignore is the fact that disillusionment with party A does not naturally translate into a vote for party B. Disillusioned voters have the option to not vote and also to pick nota. Unlike 2014, i do not see an environment where people want to vote out the government in power therefore a transfer of vote from BJP to INC is highly unlikely. Yes, the number of seats may come down but will only happen because the BJP is peaking.
Mark my words my bjp this time won't get 272 ,that bjp know even before elections 😊,2019 people think bjp won because of pulwama ,no bjp at that timeanyway get majority ..
@@babublue69what about mp,Chattisgarh and rajasthan assembly results last year .....bjp won and increased it's seats compared to last time inspite of years of anti incumbency and there was no pulwama. 😂 congress voters are excited but there balloons will burst on 4th june...I see no anger aganist bjp trust me
It seems your analysis is extremely biased. You said disillusioned voters will not cross vote. But he will not go to votes and the opponents voters go to vote ultimately the opponents will win as they will get more votes.
@@karismaticquotes-bd4so we have no evidence to say that
1. That the BJP voters are disillusioned
2. That the people not going to vote are all BJP voters.
3. That disillusion is the only reason for a reduced voter turnout
Further, we need to understand that disillusionment works both ways. Inc can also be disillusioned because of factors like alliance with TMC and CPI, muslim quota, rewaris, etc. It works both ways.
@@babublue69sarr me bhery egucated Me bhatch deily dhruv and rabbish sarr
Modi will be aar paar more ruthless after 4 june
can't wait for that and I agree. I had been saying this for a very long time. Khoon ke aansu rulayega ab ye Hindu haters ko.
After 2 phase modi abd team ko pata pad gy th Muslim vote nhi kar raha h ab poori bjp yogi shah openly congress pa Muslim appeasement k aarop laga rahi h ab dekho mujhe lgra 2024- 2029 ma bhaut kuch badlna vaala h
@@VikasSingh-ko9hq they are not voting because they do not want to vote against BJP/Modi.
In Kerala, BJP is assured of 4 seats which can go up to 8 , if the ground calculations went right..
Itna v exited nhi hona kerla me 1 seat bhi jp ko aa Jaye uo badi bat hai
Kerala BJP May get 2 seats at best .
Everybody is predicting what seats BJP will get but nobody is predicting about Congress seats. Why?😂😂😂
Jay shree Ram 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
If Yogendra Yadav is the one you are dependent on for 2024 Polls forecast, will request you to read his forecast for 2019 elections in his articles in Print. Can't forget his remarks at your post 2019 poll conference wherein Yogendra Yadav sat next to you and expressed his anger against those who voted for BJP and wanted to slap these voters. Can such person's opinion.be accepted? God Bless Print for promoting with people.
My minimum seat projection
UP+BR+MP+GJ =150
RJ+Delhi+PJ+HM+J&K+UK+HR=40
CG+OR+JHK=30
NE=20
WB+MH+KR=50
TG+AP+TN+KER=10
Total 🟰 300, it can go up to 325.
BJP is going to clean sweep MP, GJ, UP (this time there is no SP, BSP alliance). Even in remaining states if they perform average they will get 300.
350-360
If BJP fails to get 272… and relies upon NDA… it’s difficult to rely upon those who can turn seats… coz BJP abused every other one…
252
In your Dream in Northeast not more than 10 seats bro.. 😁
जोकर योगेंद्र बोल था मध्य प्रदेश मे bjp के 50 seats आयगी ओर 150 आ गयी ये योगेंद्र यादव पनोती है😡😡
Panoti hai par opposition ke liye😂
Hey can you do the same analysis from the opposite point of view? Like how did they win and where etc?
No matter what everyone says,desh ki janta knows who will win 400 seats
Shekhar sir - It’s Indi alliance not India alliance
By the way, Mr. Jogendra once fought elections and lost by a distance. He might have won had his assessments took ground. That's history. Mind you, I have high regard for his wisdom & respect.
Respect for going wrong? Yogendra is shameless person when he had gone wrong last most of the time still shamelessly making predictions as expert. .Actually he is speaking for some master or for some kick backs.
Come on selhar I m paying print not to get yogendra Yadav rubbish to be discussed
If we go by analysis of Yogendra Yadav BJP is definitely crossing 320.
YoYa had predicted BJP's loss in 2019, 2022 UP election and last election of MP, CG and Rajasthan prooved wrong.
This is going to happen again
Such a forced video... I lost interest when he mentioned yogendra yadav
It's just 3 weeks left now.. why are we all getting so anxious.. one side is going to win and another will lose.. politics will stay as pathetic as it is now, environment won't get better, food will still contain poisionous substances... nothing will change in the life of a middle class person.. so take a deep breath and relax y'all.
Politics has its limitations
Common man should get educated morally abd ethically
We are teaching our kids to succeed at any cost
Parents are responsible for this mess
When people are bad country will be bad
What is life if lived cynically?
@@raghurao9332 Life of Pie
@@raghurao9332 Ignorance is bliss my brother. Delulu is the only solulu.
Unfortunately, more clutter than cut! If an increase of 6.5% increase in vote share in '19 resulted in a seat increase of only 21, clearly the numbers increased in places where the BJP was already strong (as you do mention once, but fail to emphasize).
There are a few crucial points in this election: 1. The BJP has maxed in most states of the North. 2. Statistics considering vote share of more than 50% in a bipolar election is misleading - much better is to look at the vote difference. How many seats did the BJP win with less than 5% vote difference in '19? Please remember that a turnaround of up to 4-5% may be possible in elections where local issues dominate, or where local anti-incumbency against a candidate exists. 3. Much more important than such statistics is the realpolitik in states such as Karanataka, Maharashtra, Bihar, and WB. In all these states, the situation is very different from '19, and there is no way the BJP can better their performance from then. 4. If the BJP does lose seats here, where do they recover those, since other than UP - North and Central India are already maxed.
The question thus boils down to - can UP provide the seats lost in the four swing states? Remember even Rajasthan and Haryana may not deliver full marks this time!
West Bengal orissa TN Assam UP, Andhra, telagana , in case of any loss in the north indian state where bjp won 100% seats, above-mentioned states bjp.will revover
WB will likely give more to BJP, people are fed up of the corruption and goondagardi of TMC. If BJP gets 224 solid where SG mentions they got more than 50% last time, then no amount of PINDI alliance short of a single candidate will make any difference in those seats. BJP may end up making inroads in TN, AP, TG (since regional anti-incumbency or opposition being INC). Especially AP and TG regionals are in a backfoot now, with anti-incumbency and corruption being large issues. BJP will likely also gain in OD, the remaining 2 in CG, a couple in AS and a few here and there.
Where is INC going to gain seats from? In Karnataka? Assembly difference was only 2-3%, and INC won in 2018 and lost in 2019 there, same situation this time. With JDS in a mess, and Revanna cases, BJP will eat the JDS votes and likely easily make up while throwing a few peanuts to local MPs of JDS to eventually switch - JDS is a sinking ship - so direct INC-BJP fight where BJP usually wins out.
If there is no 400 par
How will the market react to this news ?
400 or 300 doesn't matter. If BJP wins, the share market will see a rise
Then 303 will not happen and RSS will disown Modi
@@EggRoll0301 nope the market loves majority win because then there is a hope for stable governance but if there is a neck to neck win then maybe not this time but the next time the result will be unexpected so thats why a safe number should be there or majority win
@@sanchitsankhyan3904 I mean I got profits back in 2019 when BJP got just 303.
I reached this page to not listen to the video rant. But to read the comments. Reading the comments confirmed that I made a wise decision!!!!
My take I sense that the body language of the PM has dramatically improved after the third round.
He looks physically tired ..
Not when he speaks
Yes, he spoke less and thus less nonsense.
Absolutely my take too. He was bit shaky after first phase....now he is totally relaxed.
Shekar ji said BJP is coming to power without directly calling it out 😄
Kindly check Mr. Yogendra Yadav's predictions on recent state elections where he gave sweeping majority to INDI alliance in all three states, while the actual results where just opposite 😂
Shekhar Gupta is back with ...his class. That's what data analytics proves and how well u summed it up. Election may be dull but there is nothing substantial to make this tectonic shift of votes against BJP. Am buying shares and MF.....
You say that BJP won a narrow majority in 2014. It must be remembered that it was the first election since 1984 that a party won a majority! Also the BJP won only 119 seats in 2009 and doubled it in 2014. It is not necessary that a two thirds majority is required to consider it a landslide win
Valid point indeed! But then it is necessary to downplay any positive achievement of BJP.
NDA has gone past 270 in 4th phase.
BJP vote share in the south will increase dramatically.
wait a while, will ya laddy?
Dramatically, I don’t think so but significantly? Yes
South: Hold my Rassam😂
@@sleepingduty2987ye americans ki slang ko jabardasti copy karke cool banne ki koshish mat Kiya karo bhaut cringe lagta hai ek number ke chutiya lagte ho.
Oodiko kandam varzhi
This time big gains from Andhra and Telangana, at least 30 seats from these two states. Karnataka might dent to 18-20 seats, Tamil Nadu and Kerala at least 5 seats covers Karnataka loss. If AIDMK WINS 10 seats then advantage for BJP as buffer and same in Odisha with BJD also. Challenge is in Maharashtra, Bihar and Wes bengal.
When your employee utters such complete nonsense that you have to come out and basically issue a statement to the contrary so that you don't lose credibility.
😂
😂😂😂 finally he is retrieving, making ground to avoid embarrassment like last time
thx very much to SG , for at last flagging modi's victory in 2024 ..... great insightful analysis
These 2, 3, and 5 lakh numbers can be largely the result of bias rather than rationality. Bias can work either ways. Numbers alone will not the story. Reasons behind the numbers are also equally important.
I will be true to myself after first two phases i was a little bit pessimistic about BJP's performance
because of turnout data but the third phase because of gujarat hinted a relief but
this fourth phase has given BJP the edge because of Telugu States
BJP will gain that it may have lost in Karnataka or Say Rajasthan
now the scale is open, Odisha and West Bengal will see BJP
becoming single largest party in their lok sabha
Maybe Telangana as well only state that BJP is going to focus in the last phase is Punjab and
Prime Minister went patna sahib to official start the punjab lag
forget punjab.
ktaka bjp 15
True, Telangana & Andhra combined will give 25 to 30 seats
I didn’t vote for PM Modi because his name wasn’t on my EVM. I voted for the local representative in the Parliament in my constituency. The last two terms I voted for the BJP. In 2019 I even voted for the BJP candidate who is a class 12 pass. No change happened, promises were hollow. My MP failed to deliver. So this time I voted for the opposition. I voted and my job is done for the next 5 years.
While we all need a strong opposition in the country, any alliances will take away the growth speed of India. Because each alliance party will either try to develop their own state or make money during their term. Hence, this country badly requires a majority government that creates opportunities for the poor to come out of this circle (not provide freebies or free money). Secondly, we need a Govt who focuses on long-term goals for the benefits of kids to see a developed nation and enjoy their life instead of short term benifits for votes. Few UA-camrs who are criticising the Govt and getting millions of views is the new weapon for our enemy countries who want to stop India from becoming a superpower. Unfortunately, those who follow them are unaware of this trap.
Shekhar gupta be like, once bitten, twice shy
🤣🤣🤣🤣
All these charts are fine, but Modi has the critical mass supporting him. He has done something for every segment of the society. He has gone to the public on the back of deliveries. Since Congress has been out of power, it has only promises whereas BJP has performance to show.
modi kon c delivery ki baat kar raha hai???? hindu muslim hi kar raha hai abhi tak
@@0bajwa0 aap kis duniya mein rehte hain?
@@0bajwa0indi alliance sirf muslim muslim karta hai, toh modi unhe expose karne ko hindu muslim hi toh karega? Usne kaunsa kisi muslim ke saath bhedbhav kiya hai..
@@1abc546 aisa ka mil geya muslims ko...thoda bata do...picchle 26 saal main 15 saal BJP thi...ajj tak hindu dara hua hi hai....rich poor divide ..british time tak pahunch geya... yogi ..akhilesh ke jaaney ke baad govt office ka ...sudhikaran kar raha hai..yeh hai ek hindu doosrey hindu ko kaisey dekhta hai...precentage ke hisab se dekh lo..muslims kitni govt job kar rahey hai...aur brahmin kitney...aur OBC kitne
@@0bajwa0 muslim appeasement politics partition ke time se shuru hai. Likhte likhte mere haath thak jaayenge. Khud research karlo.
Shekhar Ji - I think a good comparative to add would be 1984 vs 1989 election. How did the vote swing that much in 1989?
Every single data point and chart shared by SG in this episode has been shared earlier. No new perspective. Was the purpose of this episode more of a disclaimer that YoYa's opinion is not Print's opinion? SG in damage control mode?
Like they mention pulwama / balakot When they discuss 2029 they will say 2024 was the Ram mandir effect
Why the data of exit polls not gets leaked on internet or telegram. Given the sheer size of india where even exam paper get leaked.
Media is under Control of BJP
It is leaked, you just have to read between the lines. As the phases have progressed, you see how RaGa is reducing his estimate of BJP from less than 300 to less than 272 to less than 230 to less than 150. He has seen the exit poll data and he knows that NDA is coming back with a bigger mandate and hence he is trying reverse psychology to minimise the losses to Congress.
Congress won’t get a seat more than 30 this time. They had 52 last time.
Exit poll is not allowed to conduct.
@@rajx7120 Exit polls are allowed to be conducted but the results can’t be made public till all phases of the election are completed.
Sir, ive got a question, you’re coming up with an analysis that BJP got more than 50% votes and let’s say congress got 30%, if BJP loses it’s vote it’ll go to it’s primary opposition in a seat most often than not, so if that’s the case there only needs to be a change of 11%-15% based on each seats and if that happens even in 20 seats it’s game on
Heard the name Yogendra Yadav at 3:30 and exited. Thanks but no thanks. I hope this does not count as a view.
Thank you for indirect market prediction, now we can take our own decision..!!
Yogendra Yadav has said to India Today that he has not used any tools and does not have any measuring tool to predict hinting on anecdotal information
Shekhar could you tell us what the betters and punters are saying....kitne ka rate chal raha hai election ka betting market mein. Paise lagane hain.
These old analysts think they are still in 70s era
Liked before watching.I am a hardcore BJP supporter but know Sekhar Gupta issues somewhat balanced and logic statement.
How many people think bjp will not lose substantial seats in Maharashtra?
I think there is some error in the chart.
Acc to the bar graph the BJP in 2019 won 164 seats by 2 lakh margin, 105 by 3 lakh, 44 by 4 lakh and 15 by > 5 lakh.
Add them up and the total is greater than 303. Rather 328 to be precise.This is not even counting the less than 2 lakh seats.
@shekhar sir did you get 2024 results early?
The graph is credited to Ashoka University and ECI.
Hmm, don't let Rahul Gandhi get hold of it, he will say this is the proof of election tampering.
😂😂😂😂😂
> 5 lakhs would include > 4 lakh, so on.
After trusting yoya in 2019 like NDA getting 230-240 seats Chandrababu
Naidu travelled through out the India for forming government,now CBN is with Modi after trusting yoya's past predictions😂. So calm down BJP is getting 320-325 seats. NDA 370-380. See you on june 4.
This massive Vote share wasn't a natural vote share, it was acquired based on nationalistic wave last time based on events. Media was still trusted by large population, social media apparatus of BJP was far superior compared to rivals and with only 5 years under the belt fatigue had not set in. So this 50% vote share argument that is presented isnt a accurate way to compare vote share with present situation.
All these factors are very different now.
I definitely agree with you. In 2019, the narrative was a very different one, if you supported opposition or even questioned the BJP, you were branded as anti-national, anti-hindu. Congress was considered anti-national, RG was called pappu. I also think a lot has changed. Congress looks way more organized and ahead on the narrative. Some voters are tired with the destruction of secular fabric, quite a few voters haven't forgotten Covid mismanagement, CAA, Farm Laws, Migrants crisis. Not to mention the abuse of power by BJP Leaders especially on the Local level.
@@avsbiyanisituation is similar 😂😂nothing has changed. Congress was having same confidence in M.P, Chhattisgarh 5 months back but what happened?? Liberals might live in hypothetical lala lands but elections are a science and BJP does it correctly. Situation is not the same you may be right but anti-incumbency exists in bengal, orrisa, T.N, a.p and Kerala also. Gains and loss of many parties will maintain equilibrium at macro levels. But dreaming of BJP loss might not work.
Let's not forget the fatigue initiated by the pandemic. Now post pandemic with inflation, causing lack of savings, & job losses for non IT hubs due to lack of new opportunity with global slow down can put any party under pressure. Let's not forget AI is the next wave. we are in trouble no matter wins but whoever wins should work hard to prepare for future shocks for 140 crore Indians as we are not an oil rich country or mass export of any natural resources.
@@rez142 true. Elections should also be interpreted with economic pov
Well ppl i know of pretty disgusted with congress agenda of wealth redistribution and other social economic policies.
Shekhar bhai ne election ke 2 months pehle hi Modi ko jeeta diya hai. Bhai monkey balancing band karo
After reading lots of data Shekhar Gupta always think Modi is the best PM of the universe 😂😂😂
Yogendra Yadav is Jonny Sins of Indian Politics 😂
Just by doing 1 or 2 nyav or bharat jodo yatra rahul baba feels he has understood common peoples nerve but he doesnt know Modi n shah has lived all their life with this same common people .
BJP is winning election easily. Congress is doing premature celebration.
SG, if you have to get someone to go out in the field to talk to people why does it have to be an obviously biased person like Yogendra Yadav who is ex-AAP? And after that you have the temerity to say that you have nothing to do with his opinions.
Since when did Yogendra Yadav joined the congress ? 😂
Ab ki baar Yogendra Yadav tadipaar !
Yogendra is the equivalent of KRK (Kamaal R Khan) in psepholofy world ..
June 4th Bharat will become Ramrajya 🧡
Jai Shri Ram 🙏🙏🙏
Isn't it already one?
Jai shreeram
Let's not be lethargic
Yes brother Bharat will become Ramrajya as I.N.D.I.A will win
🤣
"Past performance is not indicative of future results", Irrespective of the prediction..mission "Kamal"can always come into play..
17:37 when the people have voted one way, the level of disillusion is pretty high!!
Well said
Going back in memory, Yogendra Yadav was a true poll predictor on national television. But now a days his his prediction is more of his wishful thinking then a geniune political analysis. Even Prashant Kishore has questioned the euphoria of the opposition on the turnaround in this election and has asked for the arithmetic , nobody seems to answer him. Rajdeep Sardesai is happy putting too many question marks ❓❓in the captions in all his videos on BJP winning the elections 😅😅
Assuming Mr. Jogendra Yadav's assessment is true, then the question that popped up is whether those who are not voting for BJP, will they vote en masse for a single party or not? Most likely, not. Most likely, they abstain from voting. Votes disaggregated, not concentrated in favour of a party or candidate.
So SG is adding to the heavy chatter! And discussing Yogendra Yadav! A clear pointer to the inclination of The Print.
There is no guess work were modiji and amitji is concern. They speak were there money is, have'nt you guy seen what they say they do. Demonitalison, 370,Triple Talaq, they don't bull shit to find excuses. like most of these u-tubers and news medias.
Fantastic analysis, Sir! Thank you.❤
Sitting on the fence Shekhar, remind you what Dhruv Rathi said about you.
46 days is too long a period to wait for results after having voted.
You live in a country of 96 crore voters.
With modern technology like evm ,it must not take that much time @@shubhangbahadur7112
@shubhangbahadur7112 2/3 rd seats contested un 4 phases, and u need 3 phases to cover just 1/3rd more?
@@1abc546 The population in electorates are not similar in North India when compared to other parts of India.
@@shubhangbahadur7112 hmm....good point 👍
Hah!!!! What a joke?? How can anyone even think of stopping BJP to less than the majority mark?? 330-350+ toh sure hai!! Andha bhi bolega itta toh
Can't understand Shekhar's emphasis on seats where the BJP is strong with over 50 percent votes. The logical opposition strategy would be to try and win the seats where the bjp winning margin was thin.
Sabya has an authentic self. 🧐📝💜🎧📹
Very revealing approach to reality! SHEKARĴI you hit the nail onnits head! BRAVO!
"samajhne wale samajh gaye hain .. na samjhe wo anari hai !!"😀😀🙏🙏
Yani ayega to…..
Fantastic Data analysis ✌️🙏
Thank you, Subhrangsu. I'm glad you liked this episode. Do keep watching and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar
My prediction for bjp in 2024...........total loksabha seat...337.......🎉🎉
“Data tells us”… look at the views of cut the clutter videos by searching for the hashtag. Videos with the PM or the lotus symbol on the thumbnail gets between 150k to 250k views. All other videos get 50k to 100k. The only one got almost 190k was Kejriwal’s recent episode.
This may not be scientific but looks like there is far higher viewer interest in Modiji and the BJP than any other news. Probably more ‘scientific’ that Yogendra Yadav’s poll 😅
From someone who discussed Modis future 3rd and 4th terms and after bjp victory taken for granted this episode seems to be is to reassure Modi and Print supporters not to panic - we are still winning.
Shekhar Gupta Ji , Do You Expect Modi & Amit Will Say BJP will Get Less Then 250 Seats
Yogendra credibility only print can appreciate.
Your whole argument rests on your premise that opposition has to cover lot of distance. Why not? When people are bored with a party , they do vote against it. To make your argument convincing you have to give solid examples from the past. But you don't have I think. Rajiv Gandhi won 414 seats but he lost to VP Singh in the next elections. Rajiv Gandhi too must have won many seats with more than 50% vote share back then. But opposition covered the distance in the next elections. Didn't they? You have to explain that.
For that to happen, a very big event must occur. Mr. Rajiv Gandhi won because of the sympathy votes of Ms. Indira Gandhi. It was a rare phenomenon which doesn't happen regularly.
Absolutely. His argument always rests on more than 50% vote share as if it never happened before.
Prob the wisest analysis in these current circumstances.
Excellent statistical analysis which does not happen often. Thanks for the informations.
Interesting analyis!