OB barely held off Game Winner at 1mile and a sixteenth, another two strides and he would have been by him. Also with KD 20 horse field OB will have to be used earlier to avoid midpack congestion at first turn so I wouldn't be so sure of his victory, just my 2 cents worth. Thanks for your upload.
We have similar handy capping. Top 3-horses, Omaha Beach (1st), Game Winner (2nd) and Maximum Security (3rd), for 4th and 5th spots, Tacitus, Roadster and Improbable are my picks. Most likely odds at the post time are; Omaha Beach 7/2, Game Winner 8/1, Maximum Security 10/1, Tacitus 6/1, Roadster 5/1, Improbable 8/1 No longshots in top 4 spots in this years derby.
The "problem" for me is so many look good! T is tough OB looks great, Max looks like Holy Bull a 48 in Fla Derby. Holy Bull finished way back in the KY Derby. Game Winner, Code of Honor it's just tough to toss ones out.
Enjoyed you're point of view but there is one horse you did not mention from New York. A Closure that is going to surprise a lot of folks. He won the Gotham HUGE then got caught in a ton of traffic in the Wood Memorial. Honestly, if Haikal gets room to run in the turn, He has the ability to pass all forwardly placed horses. Gronkowski was coming on fast last year but could not catch Justify. I think Haikal can catch Omaha and beat him by a neck so going to run a ticket on him as a long shot. Thank you for the video brother.
Hi Bill, initially I picked Haikal also but in this years derby there are lot of good stalkers in the race and closer like Haikal might have problem passing these foes in last 1/8 of mile. I would like to see 30/1 longshot Haikal win but in last 6-years of Ky Derby, favorites has won so I have to go with Omaha Beach for win and if Omaha wins a derby, good chance might win all 3-legs of Tripple Crown Races.
Everyone needs to get off Haikal because that late kick you see won't happen in the Derby. He can't make the distance and he also needs to many things to go right for him.
Is Game Winner this year's version of Bolt d'Oro or a horse with some bad racing luck this year that still is running very well? After all, Bolt ran well in his preps...but was not the same horse as he was as a 2 year old. One advantage GW has is Baffert.
Max Security toyed with this group at Gulfstream....He just has never been asked. The rider did what was necessary: set a less than aggressive half and then take off.
Game Winner has regressed so much this year and other horses have just gotten better... War of Will is in the same spot but with all this talk about Omaha Beach and Maximum Security being the favorites I still like Game Winners chances... He has won at Churchill already and they claim his workouts and breezing are going well.... Omaha Beach had an issue with his foot last week and I feel it will set him back... I have Game Winner and War of Will a close second with Omaha Beach 3rd
Depending on the weather and pace, I do believe that the more likely winners are either one of the Baffert's or Maximum Security. Altough I never had Omaha Beach as a winner of this edition, I'm sad for the connections. The horse will be just fine and should be a major player later in the year. Likely Winners: 1. Game Winner: The champion is dangerous because of his consistency and connections. 2. Roadster: After overcoming a throat infection and the layoff, I think he will be able to handle a change of jockey. Ironically, that change in Jockey is what keep me of rating him as no.1 even when I believe he is the most talented (Omaha Beach or not) and that he is my favorite. 3. Maximum Security: The one with more natural speed and a front running style. He can make a merry go round of this race or just sit in close to a contested pace and romp no matter the track condition. His odds doesn't hurt a bit. Live longshots: 4. Improbable: My early favorite has lost some of his luster after two runner-up efforts. Sloppy or not, he can very well rebound to a winning effort. He may not be the longest shot in the board, but will be the higher odds from the Baffert trio. 5. War of Will: This horse was at the top of my list for months. I've excused his debacle in the LA derby. He has great tactical speed and is versatile. A major threat if he brings his A game. Already a winner over the course, he should be at a huge price with post position 1. 6. By My Standards: This is one that very well could be getting good at the right time. Working like a winner. 7. Tacitus: Bred to run all day. He will get a real chance if the race shapes up for a closer. He haven't won by much, but the added distance may separate him from the rest. For Exotics: 8. Long Range Toddy: Pros: He belongs. Cons: His effort depends on pace and track condition. 9. Vekoma: He's so cute. I dont mind his paddling. Question is how talented he really is. 10. Win Win Win: A good one if the pace melts. Very playable underneath if he doesn't encounter traffic. 11. Plus que Parfait: The only one who have won close to the Derby distance. Playable underneath if he repeats UAE Derby victory. Also, he likes Churchill. 12. Code of Honor: For every one brilliant of his efforts there is clunker. Considering last race was not ideal, I will not be surprised if he runs well enough here to grab a minor award.
The Florida derby winner 2028 maximum security is the one to watch after he won that race . Country house finished 4 th is also a journey to watch . Coffee break millionaire system pick country house .
Game winner would join an extremely long list of 2 year old champs who soiled the sheets as a three year old and improbable did have some mud in his face and will run a gamer race,albeit Omaha beach an run from mid pic to taking lead after the first quarter mile.There are three long shots I'll share later and I did [ick the longest shot of the last 30 years
I picked Justify to win the triple crown and I also picked American Pharough to do it four years ago. Always Dreaming was also my pick to win the Derby and I’ve picked ten winners in the last several years. Omaha Beach is my early pick to win the Derby. I don’t see him winning the triple.
He based a lot off of the races and the fact that they are either grade 1’s when you should also look at workouts and a lot more than what grade the race was.
Six horses in a winning row for that race. Maximum Security won Florida derby. Similarly Omaha beach won Arkansas derby. Another horse Roadster was clean winner of Saint Anitha race. Omaha Beach came first after crossing some horses.
@@matthewsanchez1863 he has 1 win n they all look great training there Kentucky derby horses for a reason. Way more talent in this field. Omaha beach or maximum wins it. Long range toddy my live longshot pick.
10 year anniversary if Mine That Bird's all-time great run...and ran in all 3 TC races 1-2-3 with jockey change. Studiously forgotten by the big shots that he was 2 year old Canadian champ and came from NM. And after seeing Winx...sissy horses here on drugs who don't run even to 4...meh!
Maximum Security has never beat a top horse that ran a quality race he’s been involved in. That is a fact! He set dawdling fractions at Gulfstream, and then kicked away from a 70-1 shot who is still a maiden (Bodexpress) who ran 2nd all the way around the track that day. Nice horse for sure, but if you think outkicking a 70-1 maiden is in the same league as outfinishing horses like Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Roadster, Tacitus, etc.... you need a drug test! Which the horse MS probably needs anyway given who his doping trainer is Servis! :-) And Smith and OB are never in a million years going to permit MS to set snail like fractions on the lead early in the race.
Bob Gardner Yes, it will be a tall order for MS to get another Charmin trip and pace scenario plus he will be over bet by distancing each field he's faced. Add in the buzz he'll get with the rags to riches story line and he will be wildly over bet. OUT he goes. All three Baffert's will be dangerous as they will be coming up to their best race of the year. Game Winner has not had things go his way in training (two races in three weeks is hardly ideal) or races (chasing OB on a soft pace and being sent while 5 wide at the 5/16th's pole in the SA Derby) this year so the clear 2YO King has a right to step forward and reclaim his spot. Roadster is improving and tractable and Improbable has the best action of the three. He didn't beat much but Tacitus endured colossal adversity within the first quarter and still preserved to pull through. He's got a great style and will be low double figures.
You need to learn pace of a race. If you expect a wire to wire winner. Not going to happen. Your choices all had theirs is downhill from here. Your looking at only horses that have done well at Churchill. Before even consider who might win. You should wait for draw of post position. When post have been draw I be back to give you the winner. It won't be any of ones you mention here Told you be back. Everyone overlooking pletchers Cutting Humor. Don't. Other long shot Hikal.
if you go way back in history, horses which are close to the lead at the 1/4 pole will win 80% of the Kentucky derby's. It's rare for horse's the win from coming way off the pace. Strike the Gold, Grindstone and Giacomo come to mind. So maybe 5 of the last 25 Derby's. This year looks like Omaha Beach, Improbable and Maximum Security will be near that lead at the 1/4 pole. Good Luck picking your winner.
at the 1/4 pole means, with a 1/4 mile to the finish of the race or after one mile of the race. What does gallop out is meaningless refer too ? @@jamessills5802
Yeah Monarchos, Orb also came from off the pace but in general horses need to be in top gear and within 5-6 lengths by the time they hit the stretch to take it.
it's like being at the track....you're not getting against the track, they make theirs...you are betting against the public. make a video like this, tell me something I don't know. like pointing out a long shot who is being overlooked by the betting public. I'd rather risk 20-100 on a live 20-1 than play chalk. betting against the public at the right times wins you the big money....not pounding chalk.
@@lawrenceredfilm8650 Easy talk, real handicappers find singles in pk 4 sequences and play around that. There are lenty of times a horse looks like the nuts and you are getting 8/5. I play price leverage. I look at a race and make my own odds and take the best value.
everybody caps and plays differently. I look for value. False favorites. for example, Drosselmeyer in Belmont and the Classic the next year. I am really patient. that being said, if the last six years are any indication, one of the forwardly placed favs will win it again.
my horse code of honor two years,back allways finished in $28 dollars sometimes a 2,dollars bets this yr got the main wire finisheds w 20 dollars the jockey bet id won 2 bills its not betting on the horse physical activity or mental health s contury horse was fourth tied even e code of honor two years ago when omah beach nows semi restrictions under U.S. copyright infringement and pepole who bets consider odds iff win yes the money keep fun but if we go everday horse bets allways wanted check it in place chose ok save or blow it spend it! then they not on fire the thrill of horse racings id example had to win 10 dollars on Omaha beach when very special racing at okc paid off hh
You can only call things they way they look to you. Plenty of people go broke trying to pick against the grain just to be the only guy on a horse. See how that works out for you, WOW.
@@vambo13257 You are right it is the Kentucky Derby not the Grand National horses dont fall like they do in jump racing. I have had to learn this the hard way
Tim Yatcak And even the numbers don’t help much because all the horses are so good and that’s the reason the favorites hardly ever win. Right now I’m picking the favorite Omaha Beach.
Untrue. When they changed the way horses qualify for the Derby they significantly changed how the race should be handicapped as well. The race has been run in general in an entirely different manner versus how it often ran prior to the qualifying rules changes.
Bob Gardner I have an unorthodox way of picking the triple crown anyway. I picked Justify and American Pharoah to win the triple crown, Always Dreaming to win. I didn’t pick Orb or Nyquist. But I did California Chrome.
OB barely held off Game Winner at 1mile and a sixteenth, another two strides and he would have been by him. Also with KD 20 horse field OB will have to be used earlier to avoid midpack congestion at first turn so I wouldn't be so sure of his victory, just my 2 cents worth. Thanks for your upload.
Improbables a damn good horse No Doubt
We have similar handy capping. Top 3-horses, Omaha Beach (1st), Game Winner (2nd) and Maximum Security (3rd), for 4th and 5th spots, Tacitus, Roadster and Improbable are my picks. Most likely odds at the post time are;
Omaha Beach 7/2,
Game Winner 8/1,
Maximum Security 10/1,
Tacitus 6/1,
Roadster 5/1,
Improbable 8/1
No longshots in top 4 spots in this years derby.
Jimmie Rasmussen Will be in the top 4
Ohama beach country house
Tacticus and roadster
Please don't underestimate Tacitus.
My money is on Mott's horse Tacitus
The "problem" for me is so many look good! T is tough OB looks great, Max looks like Holy Bull a 48 in Fla Derby. Holy Bull finished way back in the KY Derby. Game Winner, Code of Honor it's just tough to toss ones out.
Abid Sultan tax was 2nd and bred just as well I might add
So glad you r narrating the races. Love to hear what you have to say.
Gonna be a very nice derby don't you all think. Good luck
I sure wouldn't be writing off Hikal so fast! JS
it would blow my mind if he won
Thank you. Well reasoned. I learned a lot.
Enjoyed you're point of view but there is one horse you did not mention from New York. A Closure that is going to surprise a lot of folks. He won the Gotham HUGE then got caught in a ton of traffic in the Wood Memorial. Honestly, if Haikal gets room to run in the turn, He has the ability to pass all forwardly placed horses. Gronkowski was coming on fast last year but could not catch Justify. I think Haikal can catch Omaha and beat him by a neck so going to run a ticket on him as a long shot. Thank you for the video brother.
Hi Bill, initially I picked Haikal also but in this years derby there are lot of good stalkers in the race and closer like Haikal might have problem passing these foes in last 1/8 of mile. I would like to see 30/1 longshot Haikal win but in last 6-years of Ky Derby, favorites has won so I have to go with Omaha Beach for win and if Omaha wins a derby, good chance might win all 3-legs of Tripple Crown Races.
Everyone needs to get off Haikal because that late kick you see won't happen in the Derby. He can't make the distance and he also needs to many things to go right for him.
@@kaylarichards1853 to each their own. I'll be using him on a wager. Why tell folks what to do?
Is Game Winner this year's version of Bolt d'Oro or a horse with some bad racing luck this year that still is running very well? After all, Bolt ran well in his preps...but was not the same horse as he was as a 2 year old. One advantage GW has is Baffert.
I feel Bafferts horses are gonna show up as long as the jockeys do right
Baffert ya not this year. He doesn't have a horse to handle 10f
Kinda crazy not taking PP or workouts into consideration .. this is just a wish list
Roadster or maximum security my pick live long shot for me hikal
Who are your top win contenders?
He said wat the hell are talking about
I am cheering for Improbable 😁
pro tip: you can watch series at flixzone. Me and my gf have been using them for watching loads of movies lately.
@Enrique Harper definitely, been using flixzone for years myself =)
I think Roadster will be a handful
@Patty Nielsen The Roadster/Baffert/Mike Smith combo would be hard to beat, but Omaha Beach might have more gas in the tank.
Max Security toyed with this group at Gulfstream....He just has never been asked. The rider did what was necessary: set a less than aggressive half and then take off.
He is never Been test!! With 20 good horses we see if he it's the real deal, I don't think he its good enough
Game Winner has regressed so much this year and other horses have just gotten better... War of Will is in the same spot but with all this talk about Omaha Beach and Maximum Security being the favorites I still like Game Winners chances... He has won at Churchill already and they claim his workouts and breezing are going well.... Omaha Beach had an issue with his foot last week and I feel it will set him back... I have Game Winner and War of Will a close second with Omaha Beach 3rd
Depending on the weather and pace, I do believe that the more likely winners are either one of the Baffert's or Maximum Security. Altough I never had Omaha Beach as a winner of this edition, I'm sad for the connections. The horse will be just fine and should be a major player later in the year.
Likely Winners:
1. Game Winner: The champion is dangerous because of his consistency and connections.
2. Roadster: After overcoming a throat infection and the layoff, I think he will be able to handle a change of jockey. Ironically, that change in Jockey is what keep me of rating him as no.1 even when I believe he is the most talented (Omaha Beach or not) and that he is my favorite.
3. Maximum Security: The one with more natural speed and a front running style. He can make a merry go round of this race or just sit in close to a contested pace and romp no matter the track condition. His odds doesn't hurt a bit.
Live longshots:
4. Improbable: My early favorite has lost some of his luster after two runner-up efforts. Sloppy or not, he can very well rebound to a winning effort. He may not be the longest shot in the board, but will be the higher odds from the Baffert trio.
5. War of Will: This horse was at the top of my list for months. I've excused his debacle in the LA derby. He has great tactical speed and is versatile. A major threat if he brings his A game. Already a winner over the course, he should be at a huge price with post position 1.
6. By My Standards: This is one that very well could be getting good at the right time. Working like a winner.
7. Tacitus: Bred to run all day. He will get a real chance if the race shapes up for a closer. He haven't won by much, but the added distance may separate him from the rest.
For Exotics:
8. Long Range Toddy: Pros: He belongs. Cons: His effort depends on pace and track condition.
9. Vekoma: He's so cute. I dont mind his paddling. Question is how talented he really is.
10. Win Win Win: A good one if the pace melts. Very playable underneath if he doesn't encounter traffic.
11. Plus que Parfait: The only one who have won close to the Derby distance. Playable underneath if he repeats UAE Derby victory. Also, he likes Churchill.
12. Code of Honor: For every one brilliant of his efforts there is clunker. Considering last race was not ideal, I will not be surprised if he runs well enough here to grab a minor award.
@mehmet ozerkan nope. I actually missed 8.
The Florida derby winner 2028 maximum security is the one to watch after he won that race . Country house finished 4 th is also a journey to watch . Coffee break millionaire system pick country house .
Game winner would join an extremely long list of 2 year old champs who soiled the sheets as a three year old and improbable did have some mud in his face and will run a gamer race,albeit Omaha beach an run from mid pic to taking lead after the first quarter mile.There are three long shots I'll share later and I did [ick the longest shot of the last 30 years
You need a horse that can stalk the pace and burn rubber down the stretch.
Maximum Security.
I picked Justify to win the triple crown and I also picked American Pharough to do it four years ago. Always Dreaming was also my pick to win the Derby and I’ve picked ten winners in the last several years. Omaha Beach is my early pick to win the Derby. I don’t see him winning the triple.
Pharoah.
watchgoose Thank you so much lol now I can go on living.
Watch 3rd place horse code of honor looks like he may be mid pack to lane
I like him to be in the money but not first.
GW = fit
He based a lot off of the races and the fact that they are either grade 1’s when you should also look at workouts and a lot more than what grade the race was.
Six horses in a winning row for that race. Maximum Security won Florida derby. Similarly Omaha beach won Arkansas derby. Another horse Roadster was clean winner of Saint Anitha race. Omaha Beach came first after crossing some horses.
Win win
weather could change everything.
as well as what post one gets
Don't quit your day job
maximum security u will win the preakness and the belmont!!!! u are my triple crown!!!!!!
Jackie Rawlings you “had” that right
Morgan choir
Mormantabernacle choir
La distance,
Semble un peu longue pour
improbable.
A moins que ce soit,
La piste pénible..
Omaha beach wins derby, maximum 2nd, cutting humor 3rd, game winner 4th
Kyle Eberhart country house will hit the board
@@matthewsanchez1863 country house no way he gets top 10.
Kyle Eberhart I’m only saying cuz they say he’s training great
@@matthewsanchez1863 he has 1 win n they all look great training there Kentucky derby horses for a reason. Way more talent in this field. Omaha beach or maximum wins it. Long range toddy my live longshot pick.
Kyle Eberhart I really do like maximum security and roadster.. live long shot hikal
Pretty good trainer?
lol exactly...GREAT trainer.
10 year anniversary if Mine That Bird's all-time great run...and ran in all 3 TC races 1-2-3 with jockey change.
Studiously forgotten by the big shots that he was 2 year old Canadian champ and came from NM.
And after seeing Winx...sissy horses here on drugs who don't run even to 4...meh!
My horse is out Omaha Beach so now i have to go with the two brothers thats in the race $10 dollars ext box
Pretty bummed out myself. Had him picked since march.
Maximum Security has never beat a top horse that ran a quality race he’s been involved in. That is a fact! He set dawdling fractions at Gulfstream, and then kicked away from a 70-1 shot who is still a maiden (Bodexpress) who ran 2nd all the way around the track that day. Nice horse for sure, but if you think outkicking a 70-1 maiden is in the same league as outfinishing horses like Omaha Beach, Game Winner, Roadster, Tacitus, etc.... you need a drug test! Which the horse MS probably needs anyway given who his doping trainer is Servis! :-) And Smith and OB are never in a million years going to permit MS to set snail like fractions on the lead early in the race.
Bob Gardner Yes, it will be a tall order for MS to get another Charmin trip and pace scenario plus he will be over bet by distancing each field he's faced. Add in the buzz he'll get with the rags to riches story line and he will be wildly over bet. OUT he goes.
All three Baffert's will be dangerous as they will be coming up to their best race of the year. Game Winner has not had things go his way in training (two races in three weeks is hardly ideal) or races (chasing OB on a soft pace and being sent while 5 wide at the 5/16th's pole in the SA Derby) this year so the clear 2YO King has a right to step forward and reclaim his spot. Roadster is improving and tractable and Improbable has the best action of the three.
He didn't beat much but Tacitus endured colossal adversity within the first quarter and still preserved to pull through. He's got a great style and will be low double figures.
Give me the numbers
You need to learn pace of a race. If you expect a wire to wire winner. Not going to happen. Your choices all had theirs is downhill from here. Your looking at only horses that have done well at Churchill. Before even consider who might win. You should wait for draw of post position. When post have been draw I be back to give you the winner. It won't be any of ones you mention here Told you be back. Everyone overlooking pletchers Cutting Humor. Don't. Other long shot Hikal.
,
some have not raced on mud, others not at Churchill.
By My Standards will either win or place so hook him up accordingly.
Well Omaha beach scartched
Omaha Beach is scratched
Rember Haikal
Lkm
if you go way back in history, horses which are close to the lead at the 1/4 pole will win 80% of the Kentucky derby's. It's rare for horse's the win from coming way off the pace. Strike the Gold, Grindstone and Giacomo come to mind. So maybe 5 of the last 25 Derby's. This year looks like Omaha Beach, Improbable and Maximum Security will be near that lead at the 1/4 pole. Good Luck picking your winner.
In the points era. You don't have the speedballs you used to in the earnings era throwing a 22 and 44 at the start of the race.
Gallop out is meaningless.
at the 1/4 pole means, with a 1/4 mile to the finish of the race or after one mile of the race. What does gallop out is meaningless refer too ?
@@jamessills5802
@@jamessills5802 Gallop out is the excuse a trainer tells you after you lost a race.
Yeah Monarchos, Orb also came from off the pace but in general horses need to be in top gear and within 5-6 lengths by the time they hit the stretch to take it.
you basically pointed out the favorites....Stevie Wonder could see that
So he should pick horses that have little to no chance so you can rip him on that? Dumb comment!
it's like being at the track....you're not getting against the track, they make theirs...you are betting against the public. make a video like this, tell me something I don't know. like pointing out a long shot who is being overlooked by the betting public. I'd rather risk 20-100 on a live 20-1 than play chalk. betting against the public at the right times wins you the big money....not pounding chalk.
@@lawrenceredfilm8650 Easy talk, real handicappers find singles in pk 4 sequences and play around that. There are lenty of times a horse looks like the nuts and you are getting 8/5. I play price leverage. I look at a race and make my own odds and take the best value.
everybody caps and plays differently. I look for value. False favorites.
for example, Drosselmeyer in Belmont and the Classic the next year. I am really patient.
that being said, if the last six years are any indication, one of the forwardly placed favs will win it again.
real handicappers....😂😂😂😂 very rare
my horse code of honor two years,back allways finished in $28 dollars sometimes a 2,dollars bets this yr got the main wire finisheds w 20 dollars the jockey bet id won 2 bills its not betting on the horse physical activity or mental health s contury horse was fourth tied even e code of honor two years ago when omah beach nows semi restrictions under U.S. copyright infringement and pepole who bets consider odds iff win yes the money keep fun but if we go everday horse bets allways wanted check it in place chose ok save or blow it spend it! then they not on fire the thrill of horse racings id example had to win 10 dollars on Omaha beach when very special racing at okc paid off hh
Wasting my time.
No offense, but your commentary and selections make you out to be just another 'Captain Obvious' . Nevertheless, good luck.
You can only call things they way they look to you. Plenty of people go broke trying to pick against the grain just to be the only guy on a horse. See how that works out for you, WOW.
@@vambo13257 You are right it is the Kentucky Derby not the Grand National horses dont fall like they do in jump racing. I have had to learn this the hard way
Tacitus will be like 9/2
Sorry, I could not watch your entire video. You had absolutely nothing to say which had any input or value. You are wasting people's time.
I couldn't agree with you more I posted my comment before I read yours and I totally agree he's about as dull as dishwater
wow so simplistic, no insight beyond obvious
It’s hard to pick this race. But I’ve been lucky lately.
one needs to review the last 30 runnings to understand things NOT just the last several
Tim Yatcak And even the numbers don’t help much because all the horses are so good and that’s the reason the favorites hardly ever win. Right now I’m picking the favorite Omaha Beach.
Untrue. When they changed the way horses qualify for the Derby they significantly changed how the race should be handicapped as well. The race has been run in general in an entirely different manner versus how it often ran prior to the qualifying rules changes.
Bob Gardner I have an unorthodox way of picking the triple crown anyway. I picked Justify and American Pharoah to win the triple crown, Always Dreaming to win. I didn’t pick Orb or Nyquist. But I did California Chrome.