5 kick offs a game, maybe, but a rerolls value will vary dramatically depending on the drive. If you don't have a turn left in the half (i.e, you scored on T8 of your drive, now kick off for opponents T8), its pretty pointless. So 5 is maybe too high.
You are still denying it to your opponent for their one turn attempt (or even a random block re-roll). Like all random events the value will change during the game depending on when they happen.
A couple of things: 1) Its pretty safe to assume that most teams you'll face at tournaments have 1 assistant coach as a lot of builds tend to have 10-15k leftover, so if you want the +3 bonus you should plan on buying 4 CA's 2) Some of those 5 kickoffs are going to be turn 8 kicking off to your opponent (if we're assuming a 2-1 grind then you presumably scored on turn 7 or 8 in both halves), in which case if you only get the reroll for the drive there is some % of times when you dont get to use it (or have to use it on a block just to burn it) 3) Some of your math is off on the chance of winning a reroll each game. It looks like you did (1/6)*5 for chance that the kickoff event comes up 1 or more times . This doesn't work in probability bc if you had more than 6 kickoffs you would get over 100%, should be 1-(5/6)^5 (aka 1 minus the chance that it doesnt come up at all). So with tied assistant coaches your chance of getting 1 in a game with 5 kickoffs is more like 25% and at the high end at +3 its more like 50%. That being said they're still worth taking for tournaments bc what else are you gonna take and it just goes to show that they're even less worth it for league over dedicated fans.
That may not need an entire video but would be very interesting to know. There’s an old video on this channel talking about teams being buffed or nerfed but the teams of legend are not included. A follow up to that video for amazons, vamps, etc as well as slann and khorne.
Can you do a video on bombardier please. And does anyone know what happens to the bomb when it is interfered with but the intercept catch is failed(does it bounce from square or land at feet)
Did you assume that all touchdowns lead to an extra kickoff? When you were calculating the value, did you take into account that winning the roll is potentially worth 2 rerolls (you getting one vs your opponent getting one is a difference of 2 rerolls)?
I've actually been really thinking about assistant coaches recently for my league. It's hard to decide if it's worth the inducement cash going towards my opponents. As usual your math is solid, but I think using 5 TDs per game might be underselling or overselling the value of assistant coaches depending on your team. Their usefulness will likely increase or decrease depending on if you are elves or skaven compared to a team like black orc or dwarves. Also they will be an even greater help if your opponent is a fast scorer. Also they seem like great value for stunty teams with 70k rerolls, especially since those teams have TTM potential to generate even more kickoffs. It's a really interesting topic to discuss, so thanks for taking the time!
Hey Steve! Cheerleaders only affect Cheering Fans - and that's just for the Prayers to Nuffle table now! Gone are the days of cheerleaders inspiring rerolls!
Good stuff always appreciate when someone actually takes the time to run the math I'm too lazy to look up! XD Only thing with the math is that when you compare the cost vs benefit is that a RR nets you two rerolls per game and assistant coaches only nets you one when you win the roll. So the benefit is only half that of a normal reroll. Even worse is that in a 2-1 grind there is a large chance that you might already have had your turn 8/16 when you win the roll making it useless. That being said sad, denying your opponent RR's can be considered of equal value to make up only getting half the amounts of rerolls :)
It's worth noting if you're playing a league and you know your inherent income from dedicated fans, it can be worth spending post game spare treasury on an assistant coach to ensure the next match allows you to both buy that player post match, whilst increasing your RR odds for the remaining games in the season. Worth considering especially now coaches can use multiple RR a turn.
2 won rerolls over three matches is only 1/3 of a bought reroll because a bought reroll gets used twice. So at 60k for the reroll, your 30k on ACs only nets you 20k value. Still best to use leftover money on them, but you were out by a factor of 2.
+3 was what I calculated as the plan for my teams. Possibly +5 on the Halflings if you really want to go for the TRR denial route. It will be interesting to see once Leagues get started if this leads to an arms race with Assistant Coaches. Everyone is running three so other people starting running four and so on...
Great analysis, an area I hadn’t explored much but for £10k on each AC some of those expensive re-roll teams could really benefit especially once the league starts as they double in price
I'm not seeing the 5 kick offs in a game? Classic 2-1 grind sees Kick off first half Kick off after first score Second score on turn 8 so next kick off is start of second half Kick off after third score (on T16) End of game That's only 4 kick offs. Don't dispute the concept but I think the maths is out a fair bit over 3 games as that's 3 less kickoffs
Great stuff! Gonna get some AC right away. What about cheerleaders? How do they impact your team?
5 kick offs a game, maybe, but a rerolls value will vary dramatically depending on the drive. If you don't have a turn left in the half (i.e, you scored on T8 of your drive, now kick off for opponents T8), its pretty pointless. So 5 is maybe too high.
You are still denying it to your opponent for their one turn attempt (or even a random block re-roll). Like all random events the value will change during the game depending on when they happen.
@@lyracian also good points.
A couple of things:
1) Its pretty safe to assume that most teams you'll face at tournaments have 1 assistant coach as a lot of builds tend to have 10-15k leftover, so if you want the +3 bonus you should plan on buying 4 CA's
2) Some of those 5 kickoffs are going to be turn 8 kicking off to your opponent (if we're assuming a 2-1 grind then you presumably scored on turn 7 or 8 in both halves), in which case if you only get the reroll for the drive there is some % of times when you dont get to use it (or have to use it on a block just to burn it)
3) Some of your math is off on the chance of winning a reroll each game. It looks like you did (1/6)*5 for chance that the kickoff event comes up 1 or more times . This doesn't work in probability bc if you had more than 6 kickoffs you would get over 100%, should be 1-(5/6)^5 (aka 1 minus the chance that it doesnt come up at all). So with tied assistant coaches your chance of getting 1 in a game with 5 kickoffs is more like 25% and at the high end at +3 its more like 50%.
That being said they're still worth taking for tournaments bc what else are you gonna take and it just goes to show that they're even less worth it for league over dedicated fans.
Interesting to see that small details you may think don't make that much difference can actually add up, thanks for the vid!
Recommendation for a Theory Thursday.
Are old vampires more desctructive to Thralls, or are the new ones more destructive?
That may not need an entire video but would be very interesting to know. There’s an old video on this channel talking about teams being buffed or nerfed but the teams of legend are not included. A follow up to that video for amazons, vamps, etc as well as slann and khorne.
Can you do a video on bombardier please. And does anyone know what happens to the bomb when it is interfered with but the intercept catch is failed(does it bounce from square or land at feet)
Did you assume that all touchdowns lead to an extra kickoff?
When you were calculating the value, did you take into account that winning the roll is potentially worth 2 rerolls (you getting one vs your opponent getting one is a difference of 2 rerolls)?
I've actually been really thinking about assistant coaches recently for my league. It's hard to decide if it's worth the inducement cash going towards my opponents.
As usual your math is solid, but I think using 5 TDs per game might be underselling or overselling the value of assistant coaches depending on your team. Their usefulness will likely increase or decrease depending on if you are elves or skaven compared to a team like black orc or dwarves. Also they will be an even greater help if your opponent is a fast scorer.
Also they seem like great value for stunty teams with 70k rerolls, especially since those teams have TTM potential to generate even more kickoffs.
It's a really interesting topic to discuss, so thanks for taking the time!
What about the effect of adding cheerleaders?
Hey Steve! Cheerleaders only affect Cheering Fans - and that's just for the Prayers to Nuffle table now! Gone are the days of cheerleaders inspiring rerolls!
Good stuff always appreciate when someone actually takes the time to run the math I'm too lazy to look up! XD
Only thing with the math is that when you compare the cost vs benefit is that a RR nets you two rerolls per game and assistant coaches only nets you one when you win the roll. So the benefit is only half that of a normal reroll.
Even worse is that in a 2-1 grind there is a large chance that you might already have had your turn 8/16 when you win the roll making it useless.
That being said sad, denying your opponent RR's can be considered of equal value to make up only getting half the amounts of rerolls :)
It's worth noting if you're playing a league and you know your inherent income from dedicated fans, it can be worth spending post game spare treasury on an assistant coach to ensure the next match allows you to both buy that player post match, whilst increasing your RR odds for the remaining games in the season.
Worth considering especially now coaches can use multiple RR a turn.
Thank you for this spotlight on the subject Professor Ben 😉
2 won rerolls over three matches is only 1/3 of a bought reroll because a bought reroll gets used twice. So at 60k for the reroll, your 30k on ACs only nets you 20k value. Still best to use leftover money on them, but you were out by a factor of 2.
+3 was what I calculated as the plan for my teams. Possibly +5 on the Halflings if you really want to go for the TRR denial route. It will be interesting to see once Leagues get started if this leads to an arms race with Assistant Coaches. Everyone is running three so other people starting running four and so on...
I have been arguing the importance of ac’s and cl’s for ages.
Great analysis, an area I hadn’t explored much but for £10k on each AC some of those expensive re-roll teams could really benefit especially once the league starts as they double in price
Highly useful
I'm not seeing the 5 kick offs in a game?
Classic 2-1 grind sees
Kick off first half
Kick off after first score
Second score on turn 8 so next kick off is start of second half
Kick off after third score (on T16)
End of game
That's only 4 kick offs.
Don't dispute the concept but I think the maths is out a fair bit over 3 games as that's 3 less kickoffs
Now i fill better about putting 2 ac on my thudball roster