Read our new 'AdamsNotes' summary of the key takeaways from this interview with Louis at wealthion.com/adamsnotes (and be sure to let us know what you think)
Excellent interview and guest! I like the idea of (1) buying bonds in countries like Indonesia and (2) buying companies with real assets in countries with depressed currencies. Oil companies in Canada are selling at rock bottom prices and with the Canadian dollar being depressed at the moment, these stocks could be very valuable as inflation rolls on. Thank you!
Thanks, a lot of usefully fresh perspectives here - particularly from the international context.👍 Also, it is reassuring for us newbie amatuers when an experienced pro-investor agrees with something we secretly think ourselves already : in this case, that the 60/40 portfolio is now a redundant verity of the 1980-90s Boomer-dreamland 👍
Adam's Notes is an outstanding idea! Hope Wealthion has the bandwidth to make that a permanent feature. Thanks for an ever-improving resource for us non-expert investors!
Adam's Notes outstanding idea --Provides time to digest what was said and put it into context if you are not from a financial background. Just scanned the notes - I know every industry has its abbreviations...please spell out then continue using them so again you are educating us as we join you on this financial journey. Thanks to you and team...outstanding work...keep them coming...South London UK subscriber...Long Life Learner.
Thank you for all the work you do Adam! I have learned more about the economy in the past 6 months than a 4 year university degree could ever teach. Cheers brother!
Great interview, Adam. Thank you! Regarding the AdamsNotes, I can see them being a great retrospective resource. i.e., two months from now, I can see myself wracking my brain trying to remember which of your guests discussed Asian bonds, etc and the underlying rationale.
16:30: 3 ways out of bear mkts. 22:45 everyone still wants to buy. 24:30 good to long commodities. 26:50 still way overvalued. 29:10 employment laggest indicator. 32:10 some biggest rallies happen in bear mkts. 32:50 MKT pricing in 5 rate cuts. 36:20: treas yield inversion steeper
Another great interview. Thanks so much Adam for your show, it’s fascinating viewing! Your guest lineup is great. Looking forward to your next interview. What are the chances you would be able to line up an interview with Michael Burry at some stage?
Mr. Vincent-Gave is the best commentator out there. I would look at commodities. In my opinion Energy includes electric power now so a balanced portfolio of oil, gas, copper and uranium. For the record in the last three months in China 30% of New car sales were electric cars.
A thought provoking interview. Gave is a handsome & charming guy who knows what he's talking about 25% of the time. His strategies hinge on his certainty around many major geopolitical and longterm macro contingencies. Let his points help you make your own decisions
Love the 'Adam Notes'! Thank you so much for providing this service. Just what I need to review the videos and learn what you share at a deeper level. Definitely helping to make sense of the markets. Truly value your financial education. Keep them coming!
Super interesting discussion…. It would be nice to touch on how the retail investor demographic has changed during the last 40 years…. And what impact this might have… Much different than during the last recession 40 hrs ago…
Re David Hay’s energy preferences, his July 5th public LPI recommend was the call of the year. The Haymaker will be forever under followed and under recognized.
Love the "AdamsNotes'" concept!! I watch all of your videos (thank you - thank you) and the summary notes will allow for a quick refresh, w/o the need to re-watch, to reaffirm the most important points and content of the presentations!!! Thanks Again
But the USD still accounts for 70% of all international trade. The Euro Dollar system is still deeply entrenched and most of the globe has USD denominated debts causing tremendous USD demand. I love Gold Silver Bitcoin and I'm English so I have no love for the USD (though I love the US Constitution but current US regime are traitors). I also after listening to Jeff Snider and Mike Maloney understand that sound money is different to currency which has the properties of money without being a store of value. I believe we need sound money for store of value and currency for elastic liquidity.
A week ago you interviewed Louis Gave. He said recently Chinese bond yields had dropped below US bond yields. How do you think this is currently affecting the USD and reserve status. Please estimate any timeframes you think things may play out. Do you think momentum has changed towards the renminbi?
If you stick in and don't touch the sides, are you having sex? Amazon Day sales up 8.5% from last year. We would see -15% earnings across the board and +2% unemployment. That is when we feel it. Adam: You've turned the Fed into a comical supervillain. Thankfully all of your guests this episode are 100% professional and clear-eyed. Thank you for hosting them.
Re: the slowness of the recession coming on vis-a-vis the "pig in the boa" stimulus metaphor. Much more to it than that. Turning a VLCC tanker takes room and time. Inertia. Mass. Momentum. Much of our inertia now is just retail trader and citizen consumer ingrained buying habits. And still a good dose still TINA since bonds and gold are still lackluster. And the hedge on the Fed pivot. Then sprinkle with a liberal dose of FOMO on the bottom. Inertia.
Short of Russia, Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Laos and Cambodia. Everyone knows how Great it’s gonna to be hitching on to China. The bond market is not god and the Chinese market is still largely 90% or more closed as far as currency, bonds and stocks. And as it hangs a sword on Taiwan or anywhere else pretty much uninvestable.
yes. as a matter of fact, it is not the chinese initiative this despite china currency is “close” or not as popular as usd but it the foreign countries that push china currency, especially russia and middle east. And this cause china to adapt/adjust its currency position.
You can have 'globalization' where America is a net exporter instead of a net importer, a competitor of China, instead of a sucker of China. 'Globalization' being over is not necessarily a bad thing.
The US stroke a deal with Saudi Arabia to sell the house of Saud military weapons and provide military security guarantees as long as the house of Saud sells oil only in US dollars and must recycle some of the surplus dollars investing in US stocks and US treasury. That saved the US dollar from falling since the US dollar isn't backed by GOLD anymore but by the US military and forced the world to buy US dollars in order to purchase oil. This is what allows the US to run trade deficits in the trillions of dollars and have a national debt that is unlimited because the US prints dollars for free, sells it to the world and the world buys dollars by sending manufactured good to the US in exchange. The US standard of living improves at the expense of the rest of the world. The rest of the world are financing US debts and US war machine. That's why the US has 800+ military bases around the world and spends 800 Billion+ in defense spending, to protect their US dollar global financial hegemony. Without this status, their rule of planet earth is over, both financially and militarily. That's why the BRICS trading bloc was formed, to take the US dollar completely out of the equation, thereby avoiding US sanctions as well as decoupling global trade among each members from US dollar. Supply and demand, if demand for US dollar falls because another currency is being used to purchase oil or global cross border trade, then the purchasing power of the US dollar falls as well, which means the US standard of living for the average lower class / middle class citizen will fall because imports will become more expensive but for other countries, it will be cheaper so there will be a shuffling of goods and service that would normally flow to the US be channeled to other countries instead. Also, that means the US can no longer print unlimited US dollar paper money for free and sell it to the world if the world no longer buys it (hence, no longer run trillions of dollars of trade deficits). Of course, OIL is the number one commodity on the planet. Saudi Arabia is thinking of joining BRICS in a year or so and also looking into selling some oil to China with Yuan, so that's something to look out for. Argentina and Iran (have formally applied to join) and a lot of other countries are also looking at possibly joining BRICS. It's a trading bloc with the main objective of removing the US dollar from global trade when member nations trade with one another, to free themselves from the US and Western global financial domination and control through the World Bank / IMF / SWIFT / US Dollar system. If Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries join, it's game over for the US dollar being the world's reserve currency. Another gentleman posted this on another youtube video and I think it pretty much sums things up and is something I was also getting at. I'll post it here below since I believe that 99% of the US population as well as the world's population don't understand. ---------------------------------------------- Hit that elephant in the room with this one. Might have this all wrong but worth exploring the ideas presented in more depth. All conjecture and others thoughts welcome. Still trying to figure this out and its possible implications for the near future. US$ being the world’s reserve currency is a global tribute system the US Empire has enforced on the planet for the last 70 years. If 2 countries want to trade with each other they first need US$ to do it. To get those dollars they need to give the USA $100 worth of something real in exchange for a $100 piece of paper. Initially this included the gold reserves of various countries - held at Fort Knox for safekeeping. Great system which the USA's elite have enjoyed to the max for decades - especially after Nixon removed the gold standard. The money printing at that time lead to massive inflation and interest rates (sound familiar). In order to maintain the US$ reserve status the dollar was re-pegged to oil and the petrodollar was established i.e. all energy trade HAD to be done in the US$. All countries needed energy/oil -as Europe is now learning the hard way. The great USA life style of the last half century had perhaps less to do with the entrepreneurial ability of US companies or the 'free market' system and more to do with exactly the opposite. A closed and very unfree global market. All supported by a heavily regulated global financial system (IMF etc.) and the ‘rule of law’. If the reserve status of the currency is lost - that paper is effectively useless. When the US was a major, trading and manufacturing centre, the dollar had some degree of relevance. This was certainly the case post WW2 with Europe and Asia in ruins. However, that has now all but gone. The USA is now largely and consumer/service based economy heavily dependent on global financial investments. So the trillions of dollars printed by the USA recently could amount to the biggest roll of toilet paper every made. The last great move to print worthless money to buy hard overseas assets before the coming collapse/decline. (Who were the beneficiaries of the print and did the money go?) Or that massive US CIA/military machine could be put to use. That machine has crushed all previous, even small attempts by countries that threatened the $’s status. Long list that includes Iraq/ Iran/ Venezuela’s moves to break the oil-$ trade wall and that special bond the USA has shared with the Saudi's (the real source of the 9/11 attack). The massive support of Israel and the divide and conquer efforts that have been so successful in destabilizing the entire middle east/Arab world. NONE of this has happened by accident. It is about oil, but equally as important the role of the US$ as the world’s reserve currency. There is a reason Rome had a massive army. BRICS is a grave threat and the US elite rightly regard it has the biggest threat the empire has seen. The war in the Ukraine is just the opening move - targeting Russia using ultra-right Ukraine nationalist in a proxy war. This not a capitalist v communist war but an economic war again based on oil and the role of the US$ dollar. The Ukraine proxy war has been in planning for decades, including the Ukraine 2014 coup that installed the Azov. Ditto the coming main event - China. Planning for that includes the recent rearming of Japan/Taiwan. Ditto for the 700-800 US bases targeting the BRICS members. The plan is unfolding but not without its problems. India is still sitting on the sidelines despite the build-up of the anti-China Quad alliance. Some fallouts may have not been fully anticipated. Weaponizing the US$ is potentially accelerating the move away from the US$ for trading especially by developing countries and the Saudi's. Inflation and energy crises global impacts, particularly in Europe. Sanctions resulting in the consolidation of BRICS ties rather than fragmentation of the group etc. -------------------------------------------------------- An excellent synopsis of someone's post on another youtube video that I would like to share here for people on this youtube forum.
yeah you got it that’s the good point because people later going to start looking for it and then you gonna put your own price but then I’m looking for something renew it’s coming new something is gonna work for five for 10 years for sta devellised one part of the money half in something black with the other one and this time I made it like this because I wasn’t too much pressure because they gonna end of the water so I revolutionary everything by date they look I don’t come in to meet us. There was already there but now it’s time to put everything in the right place. That’s what I expected it is and looking for the best option and the new materials a new things in life is going to be usable for the next 10 years.
you guys totally right I think is good connection with misunderstanding before but definitely you guys have a good boys. Good night because of us every single day doing Lee Street do you know I have another business to do around and I just barely know maybe seven hours watching this every single time and checking one time with one place I have like 60 visa run and then I watch the entire world but it’s too much for me myself and I with Gracie with you guys are gonna give me a
yeah I see but you know I want I will really watch you videos couple of beers in your spo and you really watch every single one. I just told everyone you know in the moment, so I was rel little bit in the current collection and the dye in Spanish have dollars dollars in the head. This is what I meant couple of thousands millions you know I found very good arrows by varieties and I was gonna stop, so definitely this is hell me a lot for Lancaster better every single point and just leave the best freshman and when I get to the team, we have to be the best team for every single one
Yeah I don’t wanna do that is just something you have to have different is scenarios in then take a look what is the most convenient for you but in the moment you wanna take the choice and the other size down and then and then you know, decided what you want you want and this is the Ricky in the win or lose
People buying in Ursus Magnus because they been trained to BUY LOW SELL HIGH; US$4 Trillion sitting on the sideline. Until some/most of that money deployed, there will be no blood on the street. 2020 dropped 30%; 08 dropped 60%. 80% crash is not unreasonable this time.
you just wish the people wanna hear what I’m thinking what I’m doing so I didn’t I give you advice. I want to keep it but you know we have to share we are community you have to working together it’s not like fighting with who who get more who win more the problem here is because everybody get it separated. We had to make community. We got to make America bigger like every be so focus and what we want everyone by community know by each one individual.
I stopped following Zero Hedge awhile ago as they increased calling for more fiscal “stimmies” and Fed easing to keep the casinos afloat. Ethical investing in ethical markets for real productivity and prosperity are called for. We need creators and champions of new markets that meet these criteria.
I don't understand why German bond yields were lower than US bond yields in the 70's/80's, or why China's bond yields are lower than US yields today? What is the reason for this? Is Gave saying that the low yields reflect stability and therefore low risk? If so, then is this his interpretation for low US bond yields during the Obama years?
Because over 11 years ECB capped a NEGATIVE interest rate!! You should understand it means ECB recapitalized its Equity using other currency which is Dollar.
@@ssuwandi3240 Thanks Suwandi. Much appreciated. My question is about the 70’s & 80’s for Germany and China today. Why were German bond yields lower then? Why are China’s bond yields lower than US’ today. When you say Europe recapitalized it’s equities in dollars by having NIRP for 11 years, I don’t understand this. Could you explain more?
Did he just say “URSUS”? Most big funds invested HUGE in the same 8 stocks. I used to be depressed Cos my portfolio didn’t look like that. No wonder I am not rich …. until now when Ursus walked in. Comment, like, subscribe and ding ding will help to get you more material like this.
yeah, I was thinking about it and I was actually am as important information from you i I I yeah he’s gonna something Yeah I got that we definitely have to do.
yeah that’s why everybody say oh it’s like I can’t we have to go with this psychology and psycho. You do play like you guys you don’t think everything you know and definitely everybody had the issues when you play this because psychology you get damage for do you think like 10 hours and this thing in thousand something you have so this is my only crazy mom and a half after here I go even I don’t wanna play no more because Wes super stressful to me because I almost lost every single dollar every single penny. Nails gonna be discussed it for me.
yeah that’s what I’m starting and I have many university in my my. I had to look in something for many kids too secures something is volley view is gonna long a little bit but something you have any something like don’t move in from there maybe cash flow something properties something good but definitely buying is one of the boys already have on mine to use maybe this couple of times but we are the same way we think and so similar and I think this is maybe watch TV doing something together I’m definitely here I see Mary this is perfect for different ones. Tell me one thing tell me another one but I can’t I can’t sit with you so close I might potential
yeah, maybe before then you have to wait for next year because everybody now is gonna be ready to buy it to buy it and bother the place is gonna be full so I feel it go up let somebody was going to throw up because we gonna be it it ain’t nothing so they throw away and then do you take it and I don’t know if you are I was was I remember the name from this guy he may the retired he may in six month and in six months he may 38 years and he retire with one task that’s impressive I wasn’t going to
no I don’t wanna keep it by and that one just like bar in the moment they gonna say all they have it they wanna start looking for it. I get a chip and they’re gonna pay big and then I get recover is this is strategic just one time no all year or two years I don’t wanna keep it done more than one month no more in the money go my pocket double sometimes not every time
so what I do in the moment was in the illusion, for then they be excited or if it will lose, is your for if you lost, and the lips say, go down right now, fear I have the other side and then make level and then you have to bigger‘s trashes Do you know feel jealous I play BIG I don’t play I don’t play smoke I’d like big.
You see I get fat fat, one and one but I get it fit in the other one, so it’s main level. I wouldn’t go down down down because you know I I had to move that shit.
is veritas believe me I almost feel like everything is gone. I feel the water almost in my eyes believe me I was what are you doing? Do you know about this is the reason he say if I lost I lost big is fine but if you want, I want big to SAUL this is joseph. This is joseph the only play big like this the rest of the year he said we focus when I want taken out. I gotta get someone around maybe one or two guys working together and definitely Josie Wavin don’t be nothing wrong because if you do some one step run if this gone everything going so fast.
The labor market is a factor in the QT pain threshold and its lagging indicator. But what I think is forgotten is 1 million COVID-19 deaths and its fair to say half are potentially working age plus reduced immigration from countries in absolute terms which has made the labor market even tighter. Unemployment rates were going down this cliff prior to the lockdowns. Then also you have the housing boom that has fueled some of the growth and inflation built on tighter lending requirements. Foreclosures are going up to provide opportunities for investors but not at the level needed to destabilize the housing market. When we look back on it high inflation in 2022 is going to probably be a macroeconomic note on the historic calendar rather than a great recession type event where people will talk about it for decades to come. Even with another 50% move down in the equity markets.
Retire next retain the next quarter for me is there a tire already ready for the retire? I don’t need it I don’t need you guys with the phone already spoke with you willi I think you guys give me advice check the check it and you let me know so I gave my retire and then I let it lie. let it play with some money enough and can you still playing for me and then get some money too this is my advice. I’m ready for the retire.
This is the woman from China because it’s gonna be so excited. They gonna start dummy focus when I have because there is excited I don’t think in this moment is the mom in the garage and then in the moment by and have the control for the other side and then if you had a controversy study ladies United States, so this was a concept I have for establishing everything, so that’s what I keep it quiet because I spent many things I have in mind.
The next time I’ll be there with you and then that maybe I miss play with us. I’m ready for the retire. I spent too much time in this and then I I’m tired and I spend the night Sundays watching videos and then I make profit and other things and I got a risky life so I’m already 45 and I want to take my break now.
! Yeah, just gonna take to text. When did the other one I don’t have a lot of different stuff in there for you so I’m starting my only one to two in and going back going back because I got my real estate have like something right vegan in the receipt but it’s dead it’s just that then don’t give me money so I need someone is give me Lukas you know this is what I want to get out
Are you stopping here but I have the other TV watching the other side so that’s what I do without you here and then I have another one down in the other side so there’s any style I don’t need anything. I know that that’s gonna piss him. miss anything I just
I usually watch every show but today I only watch the subject. If this is your guest’s view, I really want say that he overestimated the China/CCP. Why US/West governments made consecutive wrong economic policies towards China/CCP in past 30 years? One of the reasons is because we almost no experts in US/West who really understand China/CCP. There is an exception during president Trump ministration, Mike Penpeo and his Sr. adviser Miles Yu, who is Chinese American, double culture-experience background, professor in West Point and the expert on China/CCP. Adam, I know more top real Chinese-American/Taiwanese professors and I can make referral. With same topics, you will find real truth and their analysis will shock you.
so I I have the idea because this is gonna be soon is gonna be a disaster because the pardon the whole day was 40 millions in the 43 million in the stack they don’t put an hour they put it in and everything‘s gonna be happened so fast and nobody have to be ready so I have a blunt couple of things and if it works what I’m expecting he’s gonna be OK you know because he’s going to change in one minute and want me to change everything so we got this notice about engine statistic only old all the time I is going to be a statistics but the reality is in the moment in the moment you have to change it is the best choice
Is this guy for real? - China is not a threat - Chine is not looking for world dominance but self sufficiency? - India will trade with Chine in renminbi - China was suffering from colonial powers! - China market is investable Next time can we not have a China lobbyist?
Read our new 'AdamsNotes' summary of the key takeaways from this interview with Louis at wealthion.com/adamsnotes (and be sure to let us know what you think)
Louis was generous guest with the information he furnished. Thank you Adam for the probing questions!!
Excellent interview and guest! I like the idea of (1) buying bonds in countries like Indonesia and (2) buying companies with real assets in countries with depressed currencies. Oil companies in Canada are selling at rock bottom prices and with the Canadian dollar being depressed at the moment, these stocks could be very valuable as inflation rolls on. Thank you!
I learn a lot from these interviews. Great insights which brings me thousands of dollars every year. Continue on the same footing I would say.
Thanks, a lot of usefully fresh perspectives here - particularly from the international context.👍 Also, it is reassuring for us newbie amatuers when an experienced pro-investor agrees with something we secretly think ourselves already : in this case, that the 60/40 portfolio is now a redundant verity of the 1980-90s Boomer-dreamland 👍
Adam's Notes is an outstanding idea! Hope Wealthion has the bandwidth to make that a permanent feature. Thanks for an ever-improving resource for us non-expert investors!
What a humble and thoughtful guest!
We want more! We want more! We want more Louis-Vincent Gave!
greetings from Italy Adam, and thanks for the AdamNotes summary. In times of disruption it's nice to have your calm, accurate work.
Adam's Notes outstanding idea --Provides time to digest what was said and put it into context if you are not from a financial background. Just scanned the notes - I know every industry has its abbreviations...please spell out then continue using them so again you are educating us as we join you on this financial journey.
Thanks to you and team...outstanding work...keep them coming...South London UK subscriber...Long Life Learner.
Hi Adam! Yes, … "AdamsNotes” is the most brilliant idea! Thanks, …
C.
Great interview with Louie
Hand to listen to these interviews a couple of times. So much info to get into
Paying people more is good inflation. But People working two jobs isn’t a strong employment market. US productivity heading down quickly
Thank you for all the work you do Adam!
I have learned more about the economy in the past 6 months than a 4 year university degree could ever teach.
Cheers brother!
Great interview, Adam. Thank you! Regarding the AdamsNotes, I can see them being a great retrospective resource. i.e., two months from now, I can see myself wracking my brain trying to remember which of your guests discussed Asian bonds, etc and the underlying rationale.
Big fat thumbs up on Adam's Notes.
Another Brilliant interview!!
Thank you guys!
16:30: 3 ways out of bear mkts. 22:45 everyone still wants to buy. 24:30 good to long commodities. 26:50 still way overvalued. 29:10 employment laggest indicator. 32:10 some biggest rallies happen in bear mkts. 32:50 MKT pricing in 5 rate cuts. 36:20: treas yield inversion steeper
Love the Adam's notes. Keep it up and thank you!
Another great interview. Thanks so much Adam for your show, it’s fascinating viewing! Your guest lineup is great. Looking forward to your next interview. What are the chances you would be able to line up an interview with Michael Burry at some stage?
I’ve reached out to him numerous times. No answer yet, but I’ll keep at it!
@@Wealthion Fingers and toes crossed!
Mr. Vincent-Gave is the best commentator out there. I would look at commodities. In my opinion Energy includes electric power now so a balanced portfolio of oil, gas, copper and uranium. For the record in the last three months in China 30% of New car sales were electric cars.
A thought provoking interview. Gave is a handsome & charming guy who knows what he's talking about 25% of the time. His strategies hinge on his certainty around many major geopolitical and longterm macro contingencies. Let his points help you make your own decisions
Thanks Adam very refreshing view, learned a lot. Thanks again
Love the 'Adam Notes'! Thank you so much for providing this service. Just what I need to review the videos and learn what you share at a deeper level. Definitely helping to make sense of the markets. Truly value your financial education. Keep them coming!
Entertaining interview. Sadly I'm all about the Brady's
Super interesting discussion…. It would be nice to touch on how the retail investor demographic has changed during the last 40 years…. And what impact this might have… Much different than during the last recession 40 hrs ago…
Great interview
Re David Hay’s energy preferences, his July 5th public LPI recommend was the call of the year. The Haymaker will be forever under followed and under recognized.
Great video. Congrats
Still watching Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 ❤️
The Pimco Emerging Markets Bond Fund (PEBIX) is down 17% YTD. If Mr. Gave knows of one that is making money, I wish he would provide it.
Love the "AdamsNotes'" concept!! I watch all of your videos (thank you - thank you) and the summary notes will allow for a quick refresh, w/o the need to re-watch, to reaffirm the most important points and content of the presentations!!! Thanks Again
Danke Jungs 😎👋👋
So many good points... wow
the economy has negative growth for 2 straight quarters,the fed raises the rate by .75 and the market goes up . . .makes sense
But the USD still accounts for 70% of all international trade. The Euro Dollar system is still deeply entrenched and most of the globe has USD denominated debts causing tremendous USD demand. I love Gold Silver Bitcoin and I'm English so I have no love for the USD (though I love the US Constitution but current US regime are traitors). I also after listening to Jeff Snider and Mike Maloney understand that sound money is different to currency which has the properties of money without being a store of value. I believe we need sound money for store of value and currency for elastic liquidity.
Glad to hear the gentle plug for Zerohedge as a place to get information.
Novice here. How do you buy undervalue emerging markets currencies for a retail investor?
A week ago you interviewed Louis Gave. He said recently Chinese bond yields had dropped below US bond yields. How do you think this is currently affecting the USD and reserve status. Please estimate any timeframes you think things may play out. Do you think momentum has changed towards the renminbi?
I really wish you would interview Peter Zeihan. His Macro is top level.
Thanks Adam another great interview 👍
If you stick in and don't touch the sides, are you having sex?
Amazon Day sales up 8.5% from last year. We would see -15% earnings across the board and +2% unemployment. That is when we feel it.
Adam: You've turned the Fed into a comical supervillain. Thankfully all of your guests this episode are 100% professional and clear-eyed. Thank you for hosting them.
Thanks buddy
thanks
When will de-dollarization cause the dxy usd to plummet? Is that coming?
I just bought some 'VEMT' on the strength of this conversation. Otherwise I am heavy in cash. No gold and no equities.
Re: the slowness of the recession coming on vis-a-vis the "pig in the boa" stimulus metaphor. Much more to it than that. Turning a VLCC tanker takes room and time. Inertia. Mass. Momentum. Much of our inertia now is just retail trader and citizen consumer ingrained buying habits. And still a good dose still TINA since bonds and gold are still lackluster. And the hedge on the Fed pivot. Then sprinkle with a liberal dose of FOMO on the bottom. Inertia.
Me thinketh incredible to be able to get., Adam's.......notes!@!?😉🙂
USD still the most strongest and powerful than ever.
Short of Russia, Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Laos and Cambodia. Everyone knows how Great it’s gonna to be hitching on to China. The bond market is not god and the Chinese market is still largely 90% or more closed as far as currency, bonds and stocks. And as it hangs a sword on Taiwan or anywhere else pretty much uninvestable.
yes. as a matter of fact, it is not the chinese initiative this despite china currency is “close” or not as popular as usd but it the foreign countries that push china currency, especially russia and middle east. And this cause china to adapt/adjust its currency position.
As global trade drop, U.S can grow and manufacture are self what will are currency value look like at home ?
If both Asia and Europe are de-dollarizing, then where is the extra dollar gonna go? Will it worsen the inflation?
I think we now need to know how to get into indonesian, Indian and Malaysian government bonds.
You can have 'globalization' where America is a net exporter instead of a net importer, a competitor of China, instead of a sucker of China. 'Globalization' being over is not necessarily a bad thing.
The US stroke a deal with Saudi Arabia to sell the house of Saud military weapons and provide military security guarantees as long as the house of Saud sells oil only in US dollars and must recycle some of the surplus dollars investing in US stocks and US treasury. That saved the US dollar from falling since the US dollar isn't backed by GOLD anymore but by the US military and forced the world to buy US dollars in order to purchase oil. This is what allows the US to run trade deficits in the trillions of dollars and have a national debt that is unlimited because the US prints dollars for free, sells it to the world and the world buys dollars by sending manufactured good to the US in exchange. The US standard of living improves at the expense of the rest of the world. The rest of the world are financing US debts and US war machine. That's why the US has 800+ military bases around the world and spends 800 Billion+ in defense spending, to protect their US dollar global financial hegemony. Without this status, their rule of planet earth is over, both financially and militarily.
That's why the BRICS trading bloc was formed, to take the US dollar completely out of the equation, thereby avoiding US sanctions as well as decoupling global trade among each members from US dollar. Supply and demand, if demand for US dollar falls because another currency is being used to purchase oil or global cross border trade, then the purchasing power of the US dollar falls as well, which means the US standard of living for the average lower class / middle class citizen will fall because imports will become more expensive but for other countries, it will be cheaper so there will be a shuffling of goods and service that would normally flow to the US be channeled to other countries instead. Also, that means the US can no longer print unlimited US dollar paper money for free and sell it to the world if the world no longer buys it (hence, no longer run trillions of dollars of trade deficits). Of course, OIL is the number one commodity on the planet. Saudi Arabia is thinking of joining BRICS in a year or so and also looking into selling some oil to China with Yuan, so that's something to look out for. Argentina and Iran (have formally applied to join) and a lot of other countries are also looking at possibly joining BRICS. It's a trading bloc with the main objective of removing the US dollar from global trade when member nations trade with one another, to free themselves from the US and Western global financial domination and control through the World Bank / IMF / SWIFT / US Dollar system. If Saudi Arabia and OPEC countries join, it's game over for the US dollar being the world's reserve currency.
Another gentleman posted this on another youtube video and I think it pretty much sums things up and is something I was also getting at. I'll post it here below since I believe that 99% of the US population as well as the world's population don't understand.
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Hit that elephant in the room with this one. Might have this all wrong but worth exploring the ideas presented in more depth. All conjecture and others thoughts welcome. Still trying to figure this out and its possible implications for the near future.
US$ being the world’s reserve currency is a global tribute system the US Empire has enforced on the planet for the last 70 years. If 2 countries want to trade with each other they first need US$ to do it. To get those dollars they need to give the USA $100 worth of something real in exchange for a $100 piece of paper. Initially this included the gold reserves of various countries - held at Fort Knox for safekeeping. Great system which the USA's elite have enjoyed to the max for decades - especially after Nixon removed the gold standard. The money printing at that time lead to massive inflation and interest rates (sound familiar). In order to maintain the US$ reserve status the dollar was re-pegged to oil and the petrodollar was established i.e. all energy trade HAD to be done in the US$. All countries needed energy/oil -as Europe is now learning the hard way. The great USA life style of the last half century had perhaps less to do with the entrepreneurial ability of US companies or the 'free market' system and more to do with exactly the opposite. A closed and very unfree global market. All supported by a heavily regulated global financial system (IMF etc.) and the ‘rule of law’.
If the reserve status of the currency is lost - that paper is effectively useless. When the US was a major, trading and manufacturing centre, the dollar had some degree of relevance. This was certainly the case post WW2 with Europe and Asia in ruins. However, that has now all but gone. The USA is now largely and consumer/service based economy heavily dependent on global financial investments. So the trillions of dollars printed by the USA recently could amount to the biggest roll of toilet paper every made. The last great move to print worthless money to buy hard overseas assets before the coming collapse/decline. (Who were the beneficiaries of the print and did the money go?)
Or that massive US CIA/military machine could be put to use. That machine has crushed all previous, even small attempts by countries that threatened the $’s status. Long list that includes Iraq/ Iran/ Venezuela’s moves to break the oil-$ trade wall and that special bond the USA has shared with the Saudi's (the real source of the 9/11 attack). The massive support of Israel and the divide and conquer efforts that have been so successful in destabilizing the entire middle east/Arab world. NONE of this has happened by accident. It is about oil, but equally as important the role of the US$ as the world’s reserve currency.
There is a reason Rome had a massive army. BRICS is a grave threat and the US elite rightly regard it has the biggest threat the empire has seen. The war in the Ukraine is just the opening move - targeting Russia using ultra-right Ukraine nationalist in a proxy war. This not a capitalist v communist war but an economic war again based on oil and the role of the US$ dollar. The Ukraine proxy war has been in planning for decades, including the Ukraine 2014 coup that installed the Azov.
Ditto the coming main event - China. Planning for that includes the recent rearming of Japan/Taiwan. Ditto for the 700-800 US bases targeting the BRICS members. The plan is unfolding but not without its problems. India is still sitting on the sidelines despite the build-up of the anti-China Quad alliance. Some fallouts may have not been fully anticipated. Weaponizing the US$ is potentially accelerating the move away from the US$ for trading especially by developing countries and the Saudi's. Inflation and energy crises global impacts, particularly in Europe. Sanctions resulting in the consolidation of BRICS ties rather than fragmentation of the group etc.
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An excellent synopsis of someone's post on another youtube video that I would like to share here for people on this youtube forum.
How about the 2.1 trillion in the O/N RRP facility? This is all potential Fed ammo for QE
yeah you got it that’s the good point because people later going to start looking for it and then you gonna put your own price but then I’m looking for something renew it’s coming new something is gonna work for five for 10 years for sta devellised one part of the money half in something black with the other one and this time I made it like this because I wasn’t too much pressure because they gonna end of the water so I revolutionary everything by date they look I don’t come in to meet us. There was already there but now it’s time to put everything in the right place. That’s what I expected it is and looking for the best option and the new materials a new things in life is going to be usable for the next 10 years.
Hi Adam, This video seems to be frozen. It won't play for me. Think the problem is at your end.😊
END DERIVATIVES MARKET!!
you guys totally right I think is good connection with misunderstanding before but definitely you guys have a good boys. Good night because of us every single day doing Lee Street do you know I have another business to do around and I just barely know maybe seven hours watching this every single time and checking one time with one place I have like 60 visa run and then I watch the entire world but it’s too much for me myself and I with Gracie with you guys are gonna give me a
yeah I see but you know I want I will really watch you videos couple of beers in your spo and you really watch every single one. I just told everyone you know in the moment, so I was rel little bit in the current collection and the dye in Spanish have dollars dollars in the head. This is what I meant couple of thousands millions you know I found very good arrows by varieties and I was gonna stop, so definitely this is hell me a lot for Lancaster better every single point and just leave the best freshman and when I get to the team, we have to be the best team for every single one
Yeah I don’t wanna do that is just something you have to have different is scenarios in then take a look what is the most convenient for you but in the moment you wanna take the choice and the other size down and then and then you know, decided what you want you want and this is the Ricky in the win or lose
Jim rogers part 2
People buying in Ursus Magnus because they been trained to BUY LOW SELL HIGH; US$4 Trillion sitting on the sideline. Until some/most of that money deployed, there will be no blood on the street. 2020 dropped 30%; 08 dropped 60%. 80% crash is not unreasonable this time.
Where's Jeff Clark?
What country is a emerging economy,when every countries is going belly up????
Lost Decade ahead...Thanks Fed¡¡
Russia vs Germany: not a game of chicken but vulture vs roadkill.
you just wish the people wanna hear what I’m thinking what I’m doing so I didn’t I give you advice. I want to keep it but you know we have to share we are community you have to working together it’s not like fighting with who who get more who win more the problem here is because everybody get it separated. We had to make community. We got to make America bigger like every be so focus and what we want everyone by community know by each one individual.
I stopped following Zero Hedge awhile ago as they increased calling for more fiscal “stimmies” and Fed easing to keep the casinos afloat. Ethical investing in ethical markets for real productivity and prosperity are called for. We need creators and champions of new markets that meet these criteria.
I don't understand why German bond yields were lower than US bond yields in the 70's/80's, or why China's bond yields are lower than US yields today? What is the reason for this? Is Gave saying that the low yields reflect stability and therefore low risk? If so, then is this his interpretation for low US bond yields during the Obama years?
Because over 11 years ECB capped a NEGATIVE interest rate!! You should understand it means ECB recapitalized its Equity using other currency which is Dollar.
@@ssuwandi3240 Thanks Suwandi. Much appreciated. My question is about the 70’s & 80’s for Germany and China today. Why were German bond yields lower then? Why are China’s bond yields lower than US’ today.
When you say Europe recapitalized it’s equities in dollars by having NIRP for 11 years, I don’t understand this. Could you explain more?
What about gold.
being bought by the CCP as we speak
Did he just say “URSUS”? Most big funds invested HUGE in the same 8 stocks. I used to be depressed Cos my portfolio didn’t look like that. No wonder I am not rich …. until now when Ursus walked in.
Comment, like, subscribe and ding ding will help to get you more material like this.
You are surprised Biden made that recession comment. I'm over here like wow he finished a sentence!
yeah, I was thinking about it and I was actually am as important information from you i I I yeah he’s gonna something Yeah I got that we definitely have to do.
yeah that’s why everybody say oh it’s like I can’t we have to go with this psychology and psycho. You do play like you guys you don’t think everything you know and definitely everybody had the issues when you play this because psychology you get damage for do you think like 10 hours and this thing in thousand something you have so this is my only crazy mom and a half after here I go even I don’t wanna play no more because Wes super stressful to me because I almost lost every single dollar every single penny. Nails gonna be discussed it for me.
yeah that’s what I’m starting and I have many university in my my. I had to look in something for many kids too secures something is volley view is gonna long a little bit but something you have any something like don’t move in from there maybe cash flow something properties something good but definitely buying is one of the boys already have on mine to use maybe this couple of times but we are the same way we think and so similar and I think this is maybe watch TV doing something together I’m definitely here I see Mary this is perfect for different ones. Tell me one thing tell me another one but I can’t I can’t sit with you so close I might potential
problem with European Union and Euro, Europe competing with USA when the real cut throat economic competitor is PRC government !!!!
yeah, maybe before then you have to wait for next year because everybody now is gonna be ready to buy it to buy it and bother the place is gonna be full so I feel it go up let somebody was going to throw up because we gonna be it it ain’t nothing so they throw away and then do you take it and I don’t know if you are I was was I remember the name from this guy he may the retired he may in six month and in six months he may 38 years and he retire with one task that’s impressive I wasn’t going to
no I don’t wanna keep it by and that one just like bar in the moment they gonna say all they have it they wanna start looking for it. I get a chip and they’re gonna pay big and then I get recover is this is strategic just one time no all year or two years I don’t wanna keep it done more than one month no more in the money go my pocket double sometimes not every time
so what I do in the moment was in the illusion, for then they be excited or if it will lose, is your for if you lost, and the lips say, go down right now, fear I have the other side and then make level and then you have to bigger‘s trashes Do you know feel jealous I play BIG I don’t play I don’t play smoke I’d like big.
You see I get fat fat, one and one but I get it fit in the other one, so it’s main level. I wouldn’t go down down down because you know I I had to move that shit.
How abt CNY depreciate against USD? This is weird financial view. Americans won’t get their money out if ur geopolitical assessment is correct
is veritas believe me I almost feel like everything is gone. I feel the water almost in my eyes believe me I was what are you doing? Do you know about this is the reason he say if I lost I lost big is fine but if you want, I want big to SAUL this is joseph. This is joseph the only play big like this the rest of the year he said we focus when I want taken out. I gotta get someone around maybe one or two guys working together and definitely Josie Wavin don’t be nothing wrong because if you do some one step run if this gone everything going so fast.
The labor market is a factor in the QT pain threshold and its lagging indicator. But what I think is forgotten is 1 million COVID-19 deaths and its fair to say half are potentially working age plus reduced immigration from countries in absolute terms which has made the labor market even tighter. Unemployment rates were going down this cliff prior to the lockdowns. Then also you have the housing boom that has fueled some of the growth and inflation built on tighter lending requirements. Foreclosures are going up to provide opportunities for investors but not at the level needed to destabilize the housing market. When we look back on it high inflation in 2022 is going to probably be a macroeconomic note on the historic calendar rather than a great recession type event where people will talk about it for decades to come. Even with another 50% move down in the equity markets.
Retire next retain the next quarter for me is there a tire already ready for the retire? I don’t need it I don’t need you guys with the phone already spoke with you willi I think you guys give me advice check the check it and you let me know so I gave my retire and then I let it lie. let it play with some money enough and can you still playing for me and then get some money too this is my advice. I’m ready for the retire.
This is the woman from China because it’s gonna be so excited. They gonna start dummy focus when I have because there is excited I don’t think in this moment is the mom in the garage and then in the moment by and have the control for the other side and then if you had a controversy study ladies United States, so this was a concept I have for establishing everything, so that’s what I keep it quiet because I spent many things I have in mind.
Grow food
The next time I’ll be there with you and then that maybe I miss play with us. I’m ready for the retire. I spent too much time in this and then I I’m tired and I spend the night Sundays watching videos and then I make profit and other things and I got a risky life so I’m already 45 and I want to take my break now.
Digne de son père
! Yeah, just gonna take to text. When did the other one I don’t have a lot of different stuff in there for you so I’m starting my only one to two in and going back going back because I got my real estate have like something right vegan in the receipt but it’s dead it’s just that then don’t give me money so I need someone is give me Lukas you know this is what I want to get out
Are you stopping here but I have the other TV watching the other side so that’s what I do without you here and then I have another one down in the other side so there’s any style I don’t need anything. I know that that’s gonna piss him. miss anything I just
I usually watch every show but today I only watch the subject. If this is your guest’s view, I really want say that he overestimated the China/CCP. Why US/West governments made consecutive wrong economic policies towards China/CCP in past 30 years? One of the reasons is because we almost no experts in US/West who really understand China/CCP. There is an exception during president Trump ministration, Mike Penpeo and his Sr. adviser Miles Yu, who is Chinese American, double culture-experience background, professor in West Point and the expert on China/CCP. Adam, I know more top real Chinese-American/Taiwanese professors and I can make referral. With same topics, you will find real truth and their analysis will shock you.
the CCP is eating America's Lunch.
so I I have the idea because this is gonna be soon is gonna be a disaster because the pardon the whole day was 40 millions in the 43 million in the stack they don’t put an hour they put it in and everything‘s gonna be happened so fast and nobody have to be ready so I have a blunt couple of things and if it works what I’m expecting he’s gonna be OK you know because he’s going to change in one minute and want me to change everything so we got this notice about engine statistic only old all the time I is going to be a statistics but the reality is in the moment in the moment you have to change it is the best choice
38th, 29 July 2022
Mama number, Putin, more no more it’s only one time only one of you
Guy needs a mic or something, his headset is hissing with his 's's so bad it's quite unlistenable at length
Is this guy for real?
- China is not a threat
- Chine is not looking for world dominance but self sufficiency?
- India will trade with Chine in renminbi
- China was suffering from colonial powers!
- China market is investable
Next time can we not have a China lobbyist?
as real as your mother
This guy is one of the worst guest you have brought to your show.
lols
Big thumbs up on Adam's Notes!