Been living in Perth for 40years.Yes mining is huge, and that's why we are such a rich state, but we are no longer just a mining town.HUGE govt. infrastructure projects going on and impossible to find a tradie for any residential building. Any supply that does come on will be swallowed up before it hits the market.We are still cheap compared to most markets in the rest of Australia. We may flatten in terms of growth but I think you are kidding yourself we are going to burst our bubble. The suburbs you mentioned ( and mostly pronounced incorrectly 🤦♂️ ) are not the suburbs people generally want to buy in,but rather all they can afford. I hold several rental properties here and sleep well at night. Suggest that maybe you spend some time here before producing any more videos. But thank you for your opinion anyway.
Mining in 60% of wa economy... Thats a government stat. When people leave Perth because unemployment plus more houses comes online (also a data stat) people will have choice and the government will also have less money and less need for infrastructure
Nope incorrect, you are using historical data and trends .Only 10% of the population is employed in mining and the infrastructure in Perth is not related to mining . The economy is very diversified now , very different to 2015 and 2016 . And building completion is close to 2 years even today for a standard house .So Perth will keep rising for at least 3 more years , it will flatten out or drop slightly after that. Rents will flatline as they have peaked but house prices will keep going up in desirable suburbs .I am not talking about Mandurah or investor smashed areas !
@@PradyVKnot to mention ppl from the east coast selling their house and moving to Perth, buying a better house in a better area and putting the rest of the money in the bank.
@@PradyVKyou might want to double check the stats because 10% is incorrect. In 2015-2016 around 5% of Perth popl. was in mining. There was a downturn then. In 2021 around 7% of Perth popl. was in mining. This lends itself to a better argument that Perth is still very much mining dependent and also to the fact that it's less about the number employed in a specific industry and more about their borrowing power (which those in mining jobs have the highest of as compared to say retail or construction on government projects).
Yup certain its only 10% of the WA population , rest fly in and fly out from other states . This is top end of the range 10% ... We are not even in a mining boom ,so could be 8 % as a lot of people have been laid off .Mining doesn't control the Perth housing market in 2024 , supply of housing and influx of local and international migration
What I genuinely don’t get is how you go from building approval to there being this instant supply. A building approval is just that, an approval. The actual structure has to then b be built which can take up to 18 months for a single dwelling let alone anything else. To build this number of homes that are approved requires a tonne of skilled labour which is currently low in WA. Away from all of the above, Perth is still the most affordable capital city aside from Hobart and Darwin, so buying pressures increase even greater is people move for that reason. The more people, the more jobs are required to service those people and more homes required. There’s like multiple steps missing in your analysis.
A few facts 1. When Perth property market busted in 2007 Perth median house price was close to Sydney. Perth is still cheaper than Adelaide now. 2. The correlation Iron ore price and Perth median house unclear. I wish I could upload the graph. 3. Perth median is still 56% of Sydney. Long term average is 63%. Still undervalued. Thanks for your opinion.
Another 10% next year followed by 5% then cruise mode for a bit. Perth is a machine and speaking to people who live there, love it and people are making the move west. Cost of buildings are going up, new estates opening up make the developed areas look more appealing which lift their values. New houses once built (12 months away) will be snapped up by the influx. Sure, not every suburb will continue on this growth but overall, great place to live and still relatively affordable with high wages.
the last mining down turn was the end of construction boom and huge job losses suddenly came they also had 3x more people then they needed on maintenance jobs, i know i was there. This time its all production and the mining companies have worked out exactly how many people they need. Most of the mines will remain open as we are one of the lowest cost in the world. Also some mines are coming to there end of life and will need to be replaced which requires a huge amount of people for construction. Saying that i can see Perth going up like 15 to 20% more then peaking.
Im selling at the end of next year. I've made my money, and that's all I've needed to pay out my property in brisbane. Thanks for your view, Adam appreciate it.
Unfortunately your iron ore vs house price analyses are faulty. 1. IO price boomed 2016-19, your IO blue line rose from $60bil to $150bil. Yet Perth house prices were on a decline in this period, thus no relationship. 2. The IO blue line represents $dollar (affected by $price/ton) but not the tonnages. The tonnages could well stay the same levels requiring the same amount of workforce.
Great video and I do agree with how big mining is in WA. I guess the question I have been asking myself is what is the 'cost' of being wrong or right on WA. If you are right, would property go back to covid levels? Maybe, maybe not. If however it turns out iron ore doesnt collapse, what happens then? Because every month iron ore doesnt collapse is 12k equity, based on 20 per cent growth and median price. The other thing on my mind is WA public service is 160k jobs so thats the largest employer. And with higher population needs more public service jobs. Perth is an interesting one!
I said I think there is 3-9 months left in the bubble depending on area so still more growth in many areas for the short term. There are plenty of better areas in Aus to invest that are only at the beginning of growth and not at the end like Perth
The public service has around 16 to 18K employees not including police teachers and nurses or local Government. The state government is very very dependent on iron ore royalties.
Kings Park offers diverse tree canopy to pitch a tent or two with breath taking views of the CBD and Swan River. Vacancy rates for residential property are less than 0.5%. Best of luck.
Sounds a lot more like hopium and guessing than any real forecasting / legitimate research. What happens if I/O prices don't drop off a cliff as you expect? How long is the normal up cycle of Perth property?
I think you are looking at one factor in isolation. What percentage of residential properties are owned by people with mortgages, and are thus depending on mining? The dependence of the Perth 'economy' on mining does not necessary highly correlate to property valuations. People spend their money on many things. I have not seen data on the correlation. If there is a major collapse in employment then this will likely have an impact on property values, but I am not sure how great that would be. I would argue the wealthy who own a significant portion of residential properties will not be greatly affected. Any such unemployment effect will surely be offset by the forthcoming reduction of interest rates, which is expected to trigger a second wave of property increases. Further, the Perth market is undervalued and an increasingly good investment for people out of state. Just my view.
Hi I guess you calculated wrong because even if Iron ore price goes down its place will take by gold, lithium and others. As gold and lithium price is going crazy high.
We always get slammed with negativity, people know the east is not that great, yes we may have some shoddy builders and low supply, but lifestyle and weather is getting better, we have advanced a lot and we hold a lot of events now and the UFC and other big names have recognised us. East is wet and miserable Birssy is ok, but the way their houses are made out of wood which I would not be confident in buying over double-bricked houses here says everything. Melbourne is cold, Sydney is overrated. People just use the oh WA is far away as their excuse but in reality know e have it all. flat smooth wide road great nature, close to asia and Europe. And have diversity like never before. We have a Quay. We have a beautiful skyline. SO many things that the east doesn't have. I wouldn't move anywhere else. Perth will surpass other states in time, Perth is one of the cleanest and safest cities as well.
In the next 12-18 months would you say Wanneroo would go bust? When to sell if you bought something in Wanneroo most recently ? Could also provide some source and evidence to the data you have shared on Wanneroo? Also the spelling of Wanneroo you've used is incorrect. There is hardly any houses for rent in Wanneroo! how old is this data?
As Adam has said we are riding a wave from the mining boom....that is now slowing down...China tariff s from the Trump era will dampen it even more...interest rates from the Reserve Bank before Covid were on average 5%.....so the spruikers that are saying interest rates are coming down maybe wrong...
All the speculation and spruiking by someone who doesn’t know what they’re talking about. This is exactly why we need to remove all tax incentives for existing properties. As well as restrict LMI to only first home buyers, remove red tape around new developments and medium density in existing suburbs, stop non citizens from being allowed to buy property, increase immigration of skilled construction trades and meanwhile need to increase regulation of the building code (to chase cowboy builders). We need to stop speculation and massively increase the supply while not building defect riddled houses or only building sky scrapers with shoebox apartments.
Stated all the facts representing a downturn but ignored all the counter-factors i.e: -Highest population growth in Oz per capita -Population growth not only immigration rather interstate migration is a large part of the mix -Largely undervalued property market -Perth has the best bang for buck property so the median house price is a little misleading relative to the other cities. You're getting a lot more house/--land/location for your money in WA. I have to say you sound like a lot of my connects over east who missed the boat in WA and are now overly pessimistic about it as a result. At least you revealed that you don't own property in WA at the end of the video which provides a little context. Video would've been more credible if you hadn't chosen to ignore all of the positives. I'm also not surprised that you're encouraging people to buy in Melbourne and I'm taking a wild guess that you own property there.
The main difference between West Australia's economy and the remainder of the nation is......... West Australia's economy is primarily export focused. That is, earning export dollars to keep the nation out of "third world status". Where as the eastern states economy is simply catering to local demand, and not export focused. In summary, WA exports a shit loads more than it imports (living within its means) while the east exports very little and imports heaps (living beyond its means). In the ACT, its all paper shuffling, massive BS production and SFA nothing else - The home of the parasitic ATO.
i dont understand. you talk about Perth being a mining town still: but look at all immigrants coming in and an all the people moving from the East to the West. geeee .... even i as an electrician want to move over there; better lifestyle then over here on the east you also didnt look projects that perth has planned which create growth and jobs i cant see the rest of Australia doing well and Perth not keening up
If you’re going to offer an analysis, try not show your obvious joy at the possibility of a mining bust. Maybe also discuss the amount of money the rest of the country makes because of mining. You sound seriously uneducated mate!!
Neighbours in Perth Indian 4bedroom 2 people to each room -8 paying $700per week before Covid it was rented $350. Our rent also same but one income family of 6. Perth was attractive with lower rents might as well head back East & pay high rents there closer to family with better lifestyles. Perth not worth the high costs anymore also miners we know live elsewhere in Bali, house share or fly interstate.
Been living in Perth for 40years.Yes mining is huge, and that's why we are such a rich state, but we are no longer just a mining town.HUGE govt. infrastructure projects going on and impossible to find a tradie for any residential building.
Any supply that does come on will be swallowed up before it hits the market.We are still cheap compared to most markets in the rest of Australia.
We may flatten in terms of growth but I think you are kidding yourself we are going to burst our bubble.
The suburbs you mentioned ( and mostly pronounced incorrectly 🤦♂️ ) are not the suburbs people generally want to buy in,but rather all they can afford.
I hold several rental properties here and sleep well at night.
Suggest that maybe you spend some time here before producing any more videos.
But thank you for your opinion anyway.
Mining in 60% of wa economy... Thats a government stat. When people leave Perth because unemployment plus more houses comes online (also a data stat) people will have choice and the government will also have less money and less need for infrastructure
Nope incorrect, you are using historical data and trends .Only 10% of the population is employed in mining and the infrastructure in Perth is not related to mining . The economy is very diversified now , very different to 2015 and 2016 . And building completion is close to 2 years even today for a standard house .So Perth will keep rising for at least 3 more years , it will flatten out or drop slightly after that. Rents will flatline as they have peaked but house prices will keep going up in desirable suburbs .I am not talking about Mandurah or investor smashed areas !
@@PradyVKnot to mention ppl from the east coast selling their house and moving to Perth, buying a better house in a better area and putting the rest of the money in the bank.
@@PradyVKyou might want to double check the stats because 10% is incorrect. In 2015-2016 around 5% of Perth popl. was in mining. There was a downturn then. In 2021 around 7% of Perth popl. was in mining. This lends itself to a better argument that Perth is still very much mining dependent and also to the fact that it's less about the number employed in a specific industry and more about their borrowing power (which those in mining jobs have the highest of as compared to say retail or construction on government projects).
Yup certain its only 10% of the WA population , rest fly in and fly out from other states . This is top end of the range 10% ... We are not even in a mining boom ,so could be 8 % as a lot of people have been laid off .Mining doesn't control the Perth housing market in 2024 , supply of housing and influx of local and international migration
What I genuinely don’t get is how you go from building approval to there being this instant supply. A building approval is just that, an approval. The actual structure has to then b be built which can take up to 18 months for a single dwelling let alone anything else. To build this number of homes that are approved requires a tonne of skilled labour which is currently low in WA.
Away from all of the above, Perth is still the most affordable capital city aside from Hobart and Darwin, so buying pressures increase even greater is people move for that reason. The more people, the more jobs are required to service those people and more homes required.
There’s like multiple steps missing in your analysis.
A few facts
1. When Perth property market busted in 2007 Perth median house price was close to Sydney. Perth is still cheaper than Adelaide now.
2. The correlation Iron ore price and Perth median house unclear. I wish I could upload the graph.
3. Perth median is still 56% of Sydney. Long term average is 63%. Still undervalued.
Thanks for your opinion.
Another 10% next year followed by 5% then cruise mode for a bit. Perth is a machine and speaking to people who live there, love it and people are making the move west. Cost of buildings are going up, new estates opening up make the developed areas look more appealing which lift their values. New houses once built (12 months away) will be snapped up by the influx. Sure, not every suburb will continue on this growth but overall, great place to live and still relatively affordable with high wages.
Excellent analysis...to the point!!
Hey Adam, where did you get those individual suburb break downs of supply and demand, what source is that available on ?
the last mining down turn was the end of construction boom and huge job losses suddenly came they also had 3x more people then they needed on maintenance jobs, i know i was there. This time its all production and the mining companies have worked out exactly how many people they need. Most of the mines will remain open as we are one of the lowest cost in the world. Also some mines are coming to there end of life and will need to be replaced which requires a huge amount of people for construction. Saying that i can see Perth going up like 15 to 20% more then peaking.
Im selling at the end of next year. I've made my money, and that's all I've needed to pay out my property in brisbane. Thanks for your view, Adam appreciate it.
Unfortunately your iron ore vs house price analyses are faulty.
1. IO price boomed 2016-19, your IO blue line rose from $60bil to $150bil. Yet Perth house prices were on a decline in this period, thus no relationship.
2. The IO blue line represents $dollar (affected by $price/ton) but not the tonnages. The tonnages could well stay the same levels requiring the same amount of workforce.
Great video and I do agree with how big mining is in WA. I guess the question I have been asking myself is what is the 'cost' of being wrong or right on WA. If you are right, would property go back to covid levels? Maybe, maybe not. If however it turns out iron ore doesnt collapse, what happens then? Because every month iron ore doesnt collapse is 12k equity, based on 20 per cent growth and median price. The other thing on my mind is WA public service is 160k jobs so thats the largest employer. And with higher population needs more public service jobs. Perth is an interesting one!
I said I think there is 3-9 months left in the bubble depending on area so still more growth in many areas for the short term. There are plenty of better areas in Aus to invest that are only at the beginning of growth and not at the end like Perth
@@libertyblue-wealththroughe3874 yeah lets see where things go. Would be keen to know those other areas? Townsville/Melb?
Perth only just caught up to 2012 prices last year, which dropped 30-40% during a mining down turn.
The public service has around 16 to 18K employees not including police teachers and nurses or local Government. The state government is very very dependent on iron ore royalties.
I want to retire in Perth, so I'm definitely looking at a buying opportunity. Can you help me buy a property?
Kings Park offers diverse tree canopy to pitch a tent or two with breath taking views of the CBD and Swan River.
Vacancy rates for residential property are less than 0.5%. Best of luck.
Sounds a lot more like hopium and guessing than any real forecasting / legitimate research. What happens if I/O prices don't drop off a cliff as you expect? How long is the normal up cycle of Perth property?
who obviously have never visited perth
Great video
I think you are looking at one factor in isolation. What percentage of residential properties are owned by people with mortgages, and are thus depending on mining? The dependence of the Perth 'economy' on mining does not necessary highly correlate to property valuations. People spend their money on many things. I have not seen data on the correlation. If there is a major collapse in employment then this will likely have an impact on property values, but I am not sure how great that would be. I would argue the wealthy who own a significant portion of residential properties will not be greatly affected. Any such unemployment effect will surely be offset by the forthcoming reduction of interest rates, which is expected to trigger a second wave of property increases. Further, the Perth market is undervalued and an increasingly good investment for people out of state. Just my view.
Hi I guess you calculated wrong because even if Iron ore price goes down its place will take by gold, lithium and others. As gold and lithium price is going crazy high.
What about Cockburn Central?
We always get slammed with negativity, people know the east is not that great, yes we may have some shoddy builders and low supply, but lifestyle and weather is getting better, we have advanced a lot and we hold a lot of events now and the UFC and other big names have recognised us. East is wet and miserable Birssy is ok, but the way their houses are made out of wood which I would not be confident in buying over double-bricked houses here says everything. Melbourne is cold, Sydney is overrated. People just use the oh WA is far away as their excuse but in reality know e have it all. flat smooth wide road great nature, close to asia and Europe. And have diversity like never before. We have a Quay. We have a beautiful skyline. SO many things that the east doesn't have. I wouldn't move anywhere else. Perth will surpass other states in time, Perth is one of the cleanest and safest cities as well.
In the next 12-18 months would you say Wanneroo would go bust? When to sell if you bought something in Wanneroo most recently ? Could also provide some source and evidence to the data you have shared on Wanneroo? Also the spelling of Wanneroo you've used is incorrect. There is hardly any houses for rent in Wanneroo! how old is this data?
Maybe not go bust but definitely due for a correction when new properties come online and interstate investors pull back and high vacancies
All property values are very very over valued! Need severe correction and bubble must burst!
As Adam has said we are riding a wave from the mining boom....that is now slowing down...China tariff s from the Trump era will dampen it even more...interest rates from the Reserve Bank before Covid were on average 5%.....so the spruikers that are saying interest rates are coming down maybe wrong...
All the speculation and spruiking by someone who doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
This is exactly why we need to remove all tax incentives for existing properties. As well as restrict LMI to only first home buyers, remove red tape around new developments and medium density in existing suburbs, stop non citizens from being allowed to buy property, increase immigration of skilled construction trades and meanwhile need to increase regulation of the building code (to chase cowboy builders).
We need to stop speculation and massively increase the supply while not building defect riddled houses or only building sky scrapers with shoebox apartments.
Stated all the facts representing a downturn but ignored all the counter-factors i.e:
-Highest population growth in Oz per capita
-Population growth not only immigration rather interstate migration is a large part of the mix
-Largely undervalued property market
-Perth has the best bang for buck property so the median house price is a little misleading relative to the other cities. You're getting a lot more house/--land/location for your money in WA.
I have to say you sound like a lot of my connects over east who missed the boat in WA and are now overly pessimistic about it as a result. At least you revealed that you don't own property in WA at the end of the video which provides a little context. Video would've been more credible if you hadn't chosen to ignore all of the positives. I'm also not surprised that you're encouraging people to buy in Melbourne and I'm taking a wild guess that you own property there.
lol you didnt know coal is f all in the west?
Perth is severely under valued, WAKE UP
I think it's area dependent.
Lol no it's not bloody disconnected from the rest of Australia without natural resource and mining there is nothing going on.
The main difference between West Australia's economy and the remainder of the nation is......... West Australia's economy is primarily export focused. That is, earning export dollars to keep the nation out of "third world status". Where as the eastern states economy is simply catering to local demand, and not export focused.
In summary, WA exports a shit loads more than it imports (living within its means) while the east exports very little and imports heaps (living beyond its means).
In the ACT, its all paper shuffling, massive BS production and SFA nothing else - The home of the parasitic ATO.
i dont understand. you talk about Perth being a mining town still: but look at all immigrants coming in and an all the people moving from the East to the West. geeee .... even i as an electrician want to move over there; better lifestyle then over here on the east you also didnt look projects that perth has planned which create growth and jobs
i cant see the rest of Australia doing well and Perth not keening up
Without WA, Australia will fall.😊
Perth will go down lockstep with iron ore volumes and prices falling as china slows overbuilding for the next 20 years.
OMG. You just copied every other UA-camr who said this same thing, but weeks ago.
If you’re going to offer an analysis, try not show your obvious joy at the possibility of a mining bust. Maybe also discuss the amount of money the rest of the country makes because of mining. You sound seriously uneducated mate!!
Neighbours in Perth Indian 4bedroom 2 people to each room -8 paying $700per week before Covid it was rented $350. Our rent also same but one income family of 6. Perth was attractive with lower rents might as well head back East & pay high rents there closer to family with better lifestyles. Perth not worth the high costs anymore also miners we know live elsewhere in Bali, house share or fly interstate.
I'll come back in 12 months and see some of you Perth-naysayers eat your words
Please do come back