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"If people ... *feel* they need a non-debaseable currency." You mean if people finally reckon they've been scammed for decades??? Yeah, I think people would explicitly prefer the non-scam currency option from that menu.
Said a lot of reasonable things, but it was clear that he has been feeling the sting of ETFs taking away money from overpriced managed funds (overpriced when total return after costs is considered)
As a 25 year old fund manager i am thankful for real vision as this resource has given me a unique opportunity to think differently and gain a massive perspective advantage over guys that have been in the industry for decades longer than i have 🙏
8:48 If you invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000, assuming you reinvested all dividends, return on investment would be 235.04%, or *6.23% per year.* Price increase by itself accounted for 3.23% per year. (not sure if dividend tax included)
Cryptos are a means of exchange. Gold is a store of value AND a means of exchange. Why would I hold cryptos to get half the benefit when I can hold gold or physical gold-backed cryptos to get both benefits?
But gold can't go up 9 million percent. Just because things have been the same don't mean better things not gone come in the future. Just do some research on RippleNet and XRP.
Gold is inflationary, you fight with one inflationary element another. Bitcoin is DEflationary... it means you have asymetric returns on a extremly negligable risk. Even if it goes to zero your are risk free on a 7% yield portfolio that has 3% BTC :-)
Bitcoin is a store of value (proven fact by current valuation in fiat terms), is a payment method and currency which uses its own payment method within its own secure network that's non-centralized. Gold, on the other hand, is a store of value but needs centralized and highly regulated points of exchange who cannot handle large or micro transactions due to limitations of the metal being a physical entity. You also have to trust the middlemen. And it can be confiscated, so there's that.
@48.2 Veganvape kind of useless if it's buried, isn't it? What if you lose access to land or need to move to another country? It's just so circa 200 AD.
48.2 Veganvape you’ll need to find someone physically near you to trade your gold with that you happen to agree on a price for. Chip off the exact amount of gold that you want to exchange and get external parties to verify that the exchange took place and the gold is intact gold. Or you could have a bitcoin transaction for as much btc as you want, send it anywhere in the world for 25c and never have to meet the other party or the people who verify the transaction. Also the transaction is indisputable.
@@ingolfura.4327 His illustrations on the whiteboard are a massive help to my understanding. Here we have two guys talking exchanging valuable information, but if I see what is being discussed, wow, my understanding goes through the roof.
1 The statement that the rise of passive investing is diluting the price-discovery mechanism sounds plausible. But what effect it will have, what should an investor do about it? Say I own VTI, should I get out and own something else? Like what? 2 The statement that the S&P underperformed Treasuries from 2000 to 2013 or whatever is not the least bit insightful; it is an obvious fact, but so what? Is this a pitch to diversify equity with Treasuries; is it a pitch to hold only Treasuries; or what? What is the point? 3 Yields are low, too low to live off of, lower than inflation. Yeah? No kidding! So what? TIPS? 4 Whatever The ETF Divide is, it seems to present active managers with an opportunity. So, ETFs aren’t so bad after all? Oh! Crypto! Only took an hour to get there.
The last minute of that interview was valuable. The ultimate hedge against currency debasement, to have exposure to a fixed issuance such as a cryptocurrency.
Money managers are freaking out and try to fight back. But really for years they defrauded simple investors with high fees and no return. ETF are the way to go for small investors. Big investors of course will profit more from a personalized, high fees services.
When only 20% active managers beat the index and those 20% active managers who beat the index keep rotating in and out, why would anyone give money to active managers?
so i'm a student an i had an intensive programme on ESG theme investing. I had heard asset managers bragging about the returns and potential of ESG investments. One of my assignments was to investigate a couple ETFs. I presumed that I would find a lot of clean energy companies, social enterprises, and you clean special companies leiding in this ESG themes. To my shocking I found that a lot of the ETFs had Big teg as 5-7 of their top10 holdings, driving the vast majority of the the returns. Putting companies together under a single theme and a set of financial rules is not diversification and does not particularly make sense.
Interest rates have nothing to do with whether US govt can "Afford" it or not. US Treasury and Congress spending decisions have nothing to do with interest rates. This guest's knowledge have huge gaps.
Cloud Computing - the secret sauce is 'software defined networking', 'automated compute provisioning', and 'automated storage provisioning'. Microsoft and AWS are the only two providers who have invested in these technologies to fully automate provisioning. All other players must invest to reach economies of scale or die. So far, I don't see any other player willing to make the investment required to make Cloud Computing core to their business model.
Impressed until he mentions major cloud vendors including IBM, and Dell as a new player. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are the big three cloud companies. IBM owns SoftLayer, a top ten cloud player. Dell announces entering the cloud every five years.
I'm not an economist and I didn't understand this. I do have a question though. I don't think we should save the banks again using tax payers money. What are real world consequences of letting banks go bust?
It's diabolical to prevent something from going bust, if it is on the path to it due to the consequences of steps made. If you smoke lots, drive recklessly, going bust, what sense would you prevent your body from going bust when on the first place, you're busting it? No.
Deposits in the bank disappear. Your money disappears. Your way of getting paid disappears. Banks call in loans taking collateral from people who have debts. More homeless. Massive increase in unemployment. Massive civil unrest
That comment did not age well. At this writing, Bitcoin has lost 70% from its peak, and has tracked the Nasdaq closely. It has not proven itself to be a hedge.
@@JoeBtfzplk If u bought Bitcoin at the date of the comment at roughly $8,000, you would had been up 150% despite the large drawdown. Not sure if you would had done any better with any other asset in comparable timeline.
@@kimbuck-2 Every reputable coin dealer has a device to verify authenticity Do not by on those gold places on line especially Ebay Check with several coin dealers in your area or major coin dealers. Compare prices and not pay more than 5% above the spot price found at KITCO etc. Do not keep gold at home and do not tell people you have gold.
Are assets a bubble or is what is used to purchase them the problem? Some say 1/2 million dollar house is expensive. 40 years ago it was thousands. Gold was also a few dollars an ounce now it is 1600. I don't think the problem is the asset I think it's the currency
A somewhat more understandable (and perhaps honest) explanation of the passive vs active investment strategy can be found in the Frontline documentary “The Retirement Gamble.” One of the reasons people are leaving active management is that the expenses overwhelm the returns, especially over a long time horizon.
Bitcoin is not non-debasable...LOL It can vanish with a few keystrokes. You keep your bitcoin- for those who know history, its Gold that you Hold and Silver too, with the PGMs thrown in.
Root word is debase, meaning: Reduce in quality or value. Fiat currency is always being reduced in value by simply adding more currency to the existing supply. If there is $100 total in the global supply, and another $100 is printed and added, it instantly reduces the value of each dollar - basically. Gold and Silver are less-debasable as well, in that new mining could potentially expand the supply. Land and fresh water are considered non-debasable, as there is a finite supply. Crypto Currency such as BitCoin are "effectively" non-debasable in that the number of BTC is limited by its inherent mathematic algorithm at 21 million. Many consider the BTC non-debasable argument moot as the value of BTC fluctuates, much like Fiat currency.
@@shotelco Expansion of money supply is not by itself inflationary- it is expansion of money supply that expands faster than the supply of goods and services within the economy. And for bitcoin, you don't really control it. Their is a computer infrastructure required to sustain it. You cannot physically isolate and keep it within your own possession . It can be seized by government or hackers at any time. True, government can seize gold, but there is no infrastructure required to maintain it's value. There is no such thing as a "Bitcoin" that has any inherent value- it's just vapors. Unlike precious metals, it has no utility or actual use. I can just see it now...John sweeps Sally off her feet with a virtual ring made from a Bitcoin...."Aw, John! It's beautiful!" . I don't think so.
The guy is an active manager with some gears to grind, hilarious. He makes some valid points with legitimate concerns over the effects of indexations and how appropriately weighted the indexes are, but is genuinely meaningless in the long run. He clearly can't accept the fact that active fund managers rarely ever beat the benchmarks, even Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger acknowledge this fact. This isn't just true post 1999, but since 1926 there is evidence over and over again that the market as whole will beat almost any fund.
Altum Novo Altum Novo many fund managers have made predictions about the public markets with lots of different evidence, often using data that justifies their theories, that ultimately end up being wrong or mistimed. These fund managers include some of the greatest Investors in the world like Ray Dalio. Do some critical thinking, what did they even state as a fundamental factors that would cause the ETF “bubble” to pop? Cash inflow and the inflation that these ETFs seem to generate. They stipulate that the action of moving money to passive indexes have inflated the underlying assets to the point of a potential correction in their pricing, and that it will most likely come when cash inflow ends (on the assumption the world economy stops growing and stops putting money into stock markets). However, you could almost never know what kind of cosmic event would cause the market to correct its pricing for the indexed assets. You would be lucky if you could find the key factors that would determine the correction, like default rates in Mortgage backed securities and CDOs. He also references a study that show only 4% of stocks have produced the vast majority of all the wealth created, which shows that the stock market inherently follows the Pareto principle ( in an even more extreme form), like all capitalism does. People price an asset on the basis of the psychology of the prevailing market, and currently the market favours index’s as the primary form of wealth created. As long as the economy grows and the system does not have too much leverage, the federal bank will keep printing dollars and stock market will grow, and fortunately for passive investors for now, it will particularly inflate indexes. Until we change our political-economic system we will likely continue to live in this “bubble”, and all the suckers who didn’t take their profits from the market can be happy with their bitcoin.
John Valerian I’ve wondered about those too. It seems like if they ever go the other direction someone will go bankrupt. In theory you have a limited downside and an unlimited upside with an inverse etf which just doesn’t seem viable to me.
He has the Spice. The spice is undeniably in the blueness of his eyes. He has the ability to fold time. It is pure Harkonnen folly to ignore the prophecies of Mark Green.
There are sites that point to true inflation numbers. The government has changed how they calculate inflation to make it look low among other reasons to not have to pay more in benefits and raises based on it. Some of their arguments are sound, but how many TVs do we buy a month, and I do not believe it takes into account the increased taxes we pay also on many items such as gas being taxed multiple times.
@@westcoaststacker569 and if you borrow money, you can make the economy look great forever, until they stop loaning, or for my friends sake, stop buying US bonds.
Wasn't expecting crypto to come up in the last minute. That's probably one of the few areas where the younger generations will take a more active investment approach.
This guy doesn’t know what he is talking about...his concepts are pre Japan. M2 going up doesn’t mean anything inflation wise....but I like the indexing issues part which explains the ridiculous momentum moves
Like many experts, your guest repeatedly (either consciously or unconsciously) confuses the actions of the private Federal Reserve with the actions of the U.S. Government
He says returns from 1999 are 4.5 percent even if which is true, that is year just before crash so if you calculate from 1995 it is almost 7.2 percent. I thought this guy has some points but he is just bullshitting to sell hedge funds. And even though he says more than 50 percent of the investment is passive, in reality 15 percent is in only index funds while other is in mutual funds which are actively managed funds by fund managers.
I am taking bets on the price of everyday items in today's dollars at the peak of the slump.... Let's says an egg or a loaf of bread.... Open up you monopoly board game box and use the cash from there next time you go to buy groceries....
@@KnaveChild Your inflation isn't my inflation. House prices, assets not included. Taxes, the price of the state, not included. But I presume you mean inflation numbers have been manipulated down. That is just more evidence for no bubble.
Nobody is entitled to yield or living off the interest without work. It's a nice bonus for savers, but there's no law that says they should be rewarded for doing nothing The idea that managers are stuck into moving into higher risk assets is based on the flawed idea the market owes investors high rates of return
Isn’t loaning capital doing work? Kiva is a charity based on zero interest loans to poorer nations. Its clearly adding value and changing people’s lives
@@gracechan3039 people can lend money for a return, but having money doesn't guarantee you the opportunity to make a fixed return. Money managers who say "We need to take more risks because X needed to make Y on their savings" is pushing us over a cliff. X shouldn't depend on Y in the first place. That was a bad assumption.
Here's how they do it Global banker Playbook: Step 1. Demand more money printing by controlling the inflation with algorithms price manipulation. Step 2. Make sure the global credit level is so high everyone is dependent on your system. Step 3. Promote tech companies like Apple and Tesla keeping the population occupied. Step 4. Corrupt and influence the media and politicians making people believe the things you want them to believe. Step 5. Lean back and enjoy the circus while you hang out and have fun with family and friends !
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This is my favorite guest, second time I’ve heard him. And great interviewer. Loved it
"If people ... *feel* they need a non-debaseable currency."
You mean if people finally reckon they've been scammed for decades???
Yeah, I think people would explicitly prefer the non-scam currency option from that menu.
*non-debaseable currency
@@blurbslam aka Bitcoin... people wake up
@@KJ-bc3de BTC is the future
Said a lot of reasonable things, but it was clear that he has been feeling the sting of ETFs taking away money from overpriced managed funds (overpriced when total return after costs is considered)
"ETFs are a better mousetrap than Mutual Funds" great quote, really learned from this interview. thank you
As a 25 year old fund manager i am thankful for real vision as this resource has given me a unique opportunity to think differently and gain a massive perspective advantage over guys that have been in the industry for decades longer than i have 🙏
Wow well that was the most insightful talk I've listened to this year so far
Same here... 2021 now!
This man is very bright. He took his glasses off for this next interview to show you he means what he says. 🤣 He is calmly sounding the alarm. 🚨
Jim Chanos was asked "where does the money go?" and in response he said, "to money heaven!"
8:48 If you invested in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2000, assuming you reinvested all dividends, return on investment would be 235.04%, or *6.23% per year.* Price increase by itself accounted for 3.23% per year.
(not sure if dividend tax included)
It’s not a baton that’s handed over to the active manager - it’s a hot potato.
Most people have no idea how bad this crash will be. Holders of Gold, Silver and Bitcoin will pretty much own everything
I hope so...
The biggest bubble in history will mean only one thing; the greatest depression ever to be experience will occur and will affect everyone!
there will also be big opportunities, so there's the silver lining. :)
@@petarz9029 one's bread the other's death. There will be huge opportunities for some in the tragedies of others.
Absolutely, by design, no accident
Cryptos are a means of exchange. Gold is a store of value AND a means of exchange. Why would I hold cryptos to get half the benefit when I can hold gold or physical gold-backed cryptos to get both benefits?
But gold can't go up 9 million percent. Just because things have been the same don't mean better things not gone come in the future. Just do some research on RippleNet and XRP.
Gold is inflationary, you fight with one inflationary element another. Bitcoin is DEflationary... it means you have asymetric returns on a extremly negligable risk. Even if it goes to zero your are risk free on a 7% yield portfolio that has 3% BTC :-)
Bitcoin is a store of value (proven fact by current valuation in fiat terms), is a payment method and currency which uses its own payment method within its own secure network that's non-centralized. Gold, on the other hand, is a store of value but needs centralized and highly regulated points of exchange who cannot handle large or micro transactions due to limitations of the metal being a physical entity. You also have to trust the middlemen. And it can be confiscated, so there's that.
@48.2 Veganvape kind of useless if it's buried, isn't it? What if you lose access to land or need to move to another country? It's just so circa 200 AD.
48.2 Veganvape you’ll need to find someone physically near you to trade your gold with that you happen to agree on a price for. Chip off the exact amount of gold that you want to exchange and get external parties to verify that the exchange took place and the gold is intact gold.
Or you could have a bitcoin transaction for as much btc as you want, send it anywhere in the world for 25c and never have to meet the other party or the people who verify the transaction. Also the transaction is indisputable.
Definitely play this on 1.5x speed or higher.
TheRedScourge lol. so true
and I read your comment 54 minutes later I coulda saved 20 minutes of my life.
35 minutes in and , stepping back from the content , just realized I'm watching a serious slouching contest.... and getting sleepy
😂
Ron Campbell you probably got used to action films and channels
Can wait for George Gammon to put his sauce on this one.
In just 3 simple steps!
What do you guys think about him
@@ingolfura.4327 Entertaining, and I find his examples more accurate than most.
@@ingolfura.4327 His illustrations on the whiteboard are a massive help to my understanding. Here we have two guys talking exchanging valuable information, but if I see what is being discussed, wow, my understanding goes through the roof.
@@ingolfura.4327 Better to listen to him than Insolvent Sam (who could be your uncle).
Steve Bregman is brilliant. The issues he has identified have only become more extreme since this interview.
Indeed the biggest bubble ever. It is Bigly Yuuuuge. Let it pop already.
1 The statement that the rise of passive investing is diluting the price-discovery mechanism sounds plausible.
But what effect it will have, what should an investor do about it? Say I own VTI, should I get out and own something else? Like what?
2 The statement that the S&P underperformed Treasuries from 2000 to 2013 or whatever is not the least bit insightful; it is an obvious fact, but so what?
Is this a pitch to diversify equity with Treasuries; is it a pitch to hold only Treasuries; or what? What is the point?
3 Yields are low, too low to live off of, lower than inflation. Yeah? No kidding! So what? TIPS?
4 Whatever The ETF Divide is, it seems to present active managers with an opportunity. So, ETFs aren’t so bad after all?
Oh! Crypto! Only took an hour to get there.
BITCOIN! BBY ALL IN
The last minute of that interview was valuable. The ultimate hedge against currency debasement, to have exposure to a fixed issuance such as a cryptocurrency.
Without Worries or gold backed currency.
@@HeadStronger-HS Indeed. In the absence of such things, what do we use before debasement is allowed to occur other than a cryptocurrency?
@@HeadStronger-HS or leverage to Gold plus dividend, like Sprott (SPOFX).
BITCONNEEEEEEEEEEECT!!!!
@@HeadStronger-HS Counterparty risk when anything is "backed".
Money managers are freaking out and try to fight back. But really for years they defrauded simple investors with high fees and no return. ETF are the way to go for small investors. Big investors of course will profit more from a personalized, high fees services.
When only 20% active managers beat the index and those 20% active managers who beat the index keep rotating in and out, why would anyone give money to active managers?
so i'm a student an i had an intensive programme on ESG theme investing. I had heard asset managers bragging about the returns and potential of ESG investments. One of my assignments was to investigate a couple ETFs.
I presumed that I would find a lot of clean energy companies, social enterprises, and you clean special companies leiding in this ESG themes. To my shocking I found that a lot of the ETFs had Big teg as 5-7 of their top10 holdings, driving the vast majority of the the returns.
Putting companies together under a single theme and a set of financial rules is not diversification and does not particularly make sense.
Interest rates have nothing to do with whether US govt can "Afford" it or not. US Treasury and Congress spending decisions have nothing to do with interest rates. This guest's knowledge have huge gaps.
Explain please
@@TrueWestx when has interest payments on Treasuries ever stopped US congress from funding the military or anything it deemed important??? NEVER.
It’s not fair to pick 1999- the biggest stock bubble in history- as your reference point
lchpdmq yeah that’s bothering me as well
Cloud Computing - the secret sauce is 'software defined networking', 'automated compute provisioning', and 'automated storage provisioning'. Microsoft and AWS are the only two providers who have invested in these technologies to fully automate provisioning. All other players must invest to reach economies of scale or die. So far, I don't see any other player willing to make the investment required to make Cloud Computing core to their business model.
Wonderful! When was the follow up interview ?
Impressed until he mentions major cloud vendors including IBM, and Dell as a new player. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are the big three cloud companies. IBM owns SoftLayer, a top ten cloud player. Dell announces entering the cloud every five years.
RedHat?!
I'm not an economist and I didn't understand this. I do have a question though. I don't think we should save the banks again using tax payers money. What are real world consequences of letting banks go bust?
Chaos....hardship for all.
A decentralized system would be better for the real economy. But then how would the ruling class and government steal from you?
It's diabolical to prevent something from going bust, if it is on the path to it due to the consequences of steps made. If you smoke lots, drive recklessly, going bust, what sense would you prevent your body from going bust when on the first place, you're busting it? No.
Deposits in the bank disappear. Your money disappears. Your way of getting paid disappears. Banks call in loans taking collateral from people who have debts. More homeless. Massive increase in unemployment. Massive civil unrest
A few years of global hardship, then things reset to normal and the return of prosperity.
How about ETFs that are composed by stocks of a dozen or so companies (eg. gold miners)?
8e3kfx DUST
Q.T. And raising short rates at the same time should lead the public to assume the federal reserve needs a better ventilation system?
Can we get Steve back for a follow up please?
plot twist: talks an hour in danger of ETF crumbling, then mentioned Bitcoin as the ultimate hedge in the last minute
Yea was expecting him to say gold, but was pleasantly surprised. People are waking up
That comment did not age well. At this writing, Bitcoin has lost 70% from its peak, and has tracked the Nasdaq closely. It has not proven itself to be a hedge.
@@JoeBtfzplk If u bought Bitcoin at the date of the comment at roughly $8,000, you would had been up 150% despite the large drawdown. Not sure if you would had done any better with any other asset in comparable timeline.
11:17 Dan Peña also said that we have the lowest interest rates in 5000 years.
You want to preserve wealth then buy and hold gold.
@@kimbuck-2 Every reputable coin dealer has a device to verify authenticity
Do not by on those gold places on line especially Ebay Check with several coin dealers in your area or major coin dealers. Compare prices and not pay more than 5% above the spot price found at KITCO etc. Do not keep gold at home and do not tell people you have gold.
Are assets a bubble or is what is used to purchase them the problem? Some say 1/2 million dollar house is expensive. 40 years ago it was thousands. Gold was also a few dollars an ounce now it is 1600. I don't think the problem is the asset I think it's the currency
Many are trying to talk down the index etfs because index etfs will eventually eliminate many financial advisers.
What a content, respect!
A somewhat more understandable (and perhaps honest) explanation of the passive vs active investment strategy can be found in the Frontline documentary “The Retirement Gamble.” One of the reasons people are leaving active management is that the expenses overwhelm the returns, especially over a long time horizon.
This was a wonderful interview. Both the interviewer and interviewee were amazing. Great jobs guys
That was total shock what he said at the basically invest in bit coin. Haha i have been doing it for years baby
Irish Dreamer No he did not say invest in bitcoin, he said have a tiny amount of your assets in cryptocurrency in case of a disaster scenario.
In two words: excellent & riveting
Isn't that three words?🤔
I watched the full hour of this video and convinced everything Mike said to only disagree with his crypto currency suggestion..
Paolo Raimondi maybe research more about crypto currency to understand why he said what he said.
Grace Chan
He will FOMO into Bitcoin when it passes 50,000.
Im a Network Engineer... learn about DPI’s from Sanvine, Procera and Allot
Why has the $TED spread collapsed when the federal reserve is buying treasury bills?
What does he mean by saying non-debasable currency? Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the key!
It means gold and silver
Bitcoin is not non-debasable...LOL It can vanish with a few keystrokes. You keep your bitcoin- for those who know history, its Gold that you Hold and Silver too, with the PGMs thrown in.
Root word is debase, meaning: Reduce in quality or value. Fiat currency is always being reduced in value by simply adding more currency to the existing supply. If there is $100 total in the global supply, and another $100 is printed and added, it instantly reduces the value of each dollar - basically. Gold and Silver are less-debasable as well, in that new mining could potentially expand the supply. Land and fresh water are considered non-debasable, as there is a finite supply.
Crypto Currency such as BitCoin are "effectively" non-debasable in that the number of BTC is limited by its inherent mathematic algorithm at 21 million. Many consider the BTC non-debasable argument moot as the value of BTC fluctuates, much like Fiat currency.
@@shotelco Expansion of money supply is not by itself inflationary- it is expansion of money supply that expands faster than the supply of goods and services within the economy.
And for bitcoin, you don't really control it. Their is a computer infrastructure required to sustain it. You cannot physically isolate and keep it within your own possession . It can be seized by government or hackers at any time. True, government can seize gold, but there is no infrastructure required to maintain it's value. There is no such thing as a "Bitcoin" that has any inherent value- it's just vapors. Unlike precious metals, it has no utility or actual use. I can just see it now...John sweeps Sally off her feet with a virtual ring made from a Bitcoin...."Aw, John! It's beautiful!" . I don't think so.
The guy is an active manager with some gears to grind, hilarious. He makes some valid points with legitimate concerns over the effects of indexations and how appropriately weighted the indexes are, but is genuinely meaningless in the long run. He clearly can't accept the fact that active fund managers rarely ever beat the benchmarks, even Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger acknowledge this fact. This isn't just true post 1999, but since 1926 there is evidence over and over again that the market as whole will beat almost any fund.
Until it blows up in everyone's face.
Altum Novo Altum Novo many fund managers have made predictions about the public markets with lots of different evidence, often using data that justifies their theories, that ultimately end up being wrong or mistimed. These fund managers include some of the greatest Investors in the world like Ray Dalio. Do some critical thinking, what did they even state as a fundamental factors that would cause the ETF “bubble” to pop? Cash inflow and the inflation that these ETFs seem to generate. They stipulate that the action of moving money to passive indexes have inflated the underlying assets to the point of a potential correction in their pricing, and that it will most likely come when cash inflow ends (on the assumption the world economy stops growing and stops putting money into stock markets). However, you could almost never know what kind of cosmic event would cause the market to correct its pricing for the indexed assets. You would be lucky if you could find the key factors that would determine the correction, like default rates in Mortgage backed securities and CDOs. He also references a study that show only 4% of stocks have produced the vast majority of all the wealth created, which shows that the stock market inherently follows the Pareto principle ( in an even more extreme form), like all capitalism does. People price an asset on the basis of the psychology of the prevailing market, and currently the market favours index’s as the primary form of wealth created. As long as the economy grows and the system does not have too much leverage, the federal bank will keep printing dollars and stock market will grow, and fortunately for passive investors for now, it will particularly inflate indexes. Until we change our political-economic system we will likely continue to live in this “bubble”, and all the suckers who didn’t take their profits from the market can be happy with their bitcoin.
Long silver and gold miners.
CANTILLON EFFECT!!!
The people that thumbs down this only own ETF's! Haha. Epic talk!!
Perfect balance. Thank you.
Every bubble is always the "biggest in history". That goes by definition.
What? Thats nonsense
Does anyone have an opinion on inverse ETF’s?
John Valerian I’ve wondered about those too. It seems like if they ever go the other direction someone will go bankrupt. In theory you have a limited downside and an unlimited upside with an inverse etf which just doesn’t seem viable to me.
Also they should only be used for short term moves even more so when highly leveraged as the way they rebalance everyday gets expensive
If you ask about shorting, dont use it. Leave it to pros.
Speaking of Reverse ETFs ...only!
Bad idea, they don't always movie in the opposite direction. Perfect example look at UUP and UDN.
Great interview gentlemen 👍
He has the Spice. The spice is undeniably in the blueness of his eyes. He has the ability to fold time. It is pure Harkonnen folly to ignore the prophecies of Mark Green.
This discussion explains a lot that i did not know regarding Financial Poppycock. Thank you!
When does it end?
54:30
Jur Bal lol I appreciate you
In about 25 years
02/18/20
When the market is seeing more outflows than inflows (including share buybacks)... approx 2023 judging by boomer demographics.
He should have invested in sour grapes
well said. you can always tell who's missed out on this epic run..
It's funny how people think a bull market makes them smart.
I say the same thing and I am labeled as a "conspiracy theorist".
Great conversation. Excellent food for thought, and some actionable ideas. Thank you.
The market made history last week.
Huh?
What I do not understand is this. How can we have a decade of trillion dollar deficits and such low inflation? It makes no sense.
robichard how is inflation low?
There are sites that point to true inflation numbers. The government has changed how they calculate inflation to make it look low among other reasons to not have to pay more in benefits and raises based on it.
Some of their arguments are sound, but how many TVs do we buy a month, and I do not believe it takes into account the increased taxes we pay also on many items such as gas being taxed multiple times.
@@westcoaststacker569 and if you borrow money, you can make the economy look great forever, until they stop loaning, or for my friends sake, stop buying US bonds.
Grace Chan : I lived during the late 70s and early 80s. Inflation then was much, much higher.
Did Mike say he agreed with need to own a finite supply crypto at the end? Smart guy blinded by his ego and tardiness to BTC..
No doubt after the March crash he looked into BTC and has been disturbed by what he found.
SUPER INFORMATIVE !!! FROM BOTH OF YOU. THANK YOU
Basic concept you don't interview someone who has a cold no one wants to hear that. Couldn't you have waited two more weeks?
5:15 Aside from the awkwardness of Mike's shoe being in the other guy's crotch, nice interview.
Wasn't expecting crypto to come up in the last minute. That's probably one of the few areas where the younger generations will take a more active investment approach.
Yep, hard to understand the desire for it, feels like any other computer game currency to me. But, if people value it then it has value.
Real visitor has been bumped off my youtube feed for some reason
Why cut at 29:58 ?
This guy doesn’t know what he is talking about...his concepts are pre Japan. M2 going up doesn’t mean anything inflation wise....but I like the indexing issues part which explains the ridiculous momentum moves
(Head shake) Yep.......(head shake) Yep............Yep. Dude tuned out at the 25 min mark.
Like many experts, your guest repeatedly (either consciously or unconsciously) confuses the actions of the private Federal Reserve with the actions of the U.S. Government
The Fed is effectively our government.
Steve Bregman is factually incorrect , S&P total return has smoked M2
Warren Buffet recently won a million dollar bet against a high faluting fund manager that he couldn't out perform the market....
You boomers aren’t tough when I’m holding y’all up and during home invasions.
He says returns from 1999 are 4.5 percent even if which is true, that is year just before crash so if you calculate from 1995 it is almost 7.2 percent. I thought this guy has some points but he is just bullshitting to sell hedge funds. And even though he says more than 50 percent of the investment is passive, in reality 15 percent is in only index funds while other is in mutual funds which are actively managed funds by fund managers.
And don't forget the cronies at Standard and Poors
Have you heard of bitcoin?
Watch George Gammon video on Corona virus from a couple days ago. Everyone needs to this video. Thanks
onto
To sum it up, CRYPTO
T wrecks both lol
I am taking bets on the price of everyday items in today's dollars at the peak of the slump.... Let's says an egg or a loaf of bread.... Open up you monopoly board game box and use the cash from there next time you go to buy groceries....
I hate when the interviewer sits there saying ummmm hummmm every 10 seconds.it’s not needed
Interesting to see people go 180 on crypto.
How can it be a bubble, when its just tracking inflation?
Inflation numbers are totally fake and manipulated. The Fed and US govt will do anything to hide the coming collapse of the US economy/empire.
@@KnaveChild Your inflation isn't my inflation.
House prices, assets not included.
Taxes, the price of the state, not included.
But I presume you mean inflation numbers have been manipulated down.
That is just more evidence for no bubble.
@@KnaveChild nickle is the proverbial ostrich with head in sand. he wont make it. hes done...or a troll
Nobody is entitled to yield or living off the interest without work. It's a nice bonus for savers, but there's no law that says they should be rewarded for doing nothing
The idea that managers are stuck into moving into higher risk assets is based on the flawed idea the market owes investors high rates of return
Isn’t loaning capital doing work? Kiva is a charity based on zero interest loans to poorer nations. Its clearly adding value and changing people’s lives
@@gracechan3039 people can lend money for a return, but having money doesn't guarantee you the opportunity to make a fixed return. Money managers who say "We need to take more risks because X needed to make Y on their savings" is pushing us over a cliff. X shouldn't depend on Y in the first place. That was a bad assumption.
Bitcoin.... stop saying "crypto". Its Bitcoin. Nothing remotely compares in decentralization. Nothing else has been even remotely tested. BITCOIN
I'm launching SHITCOIN this year, backed up by the poopchain.
Eth? Cardano has plans to be backed by academic proofs.
The best thing to do is to follow your gut. It rarely ever lies.
Bitcoin & gold baby!
Nonsense...
Modafinil man..
XRP the standard
Why is the economy doing so well? If the gdp is substantially growing, wont that make it easier to pay debt?
Except the GDP is fueled by debt acquisition. If you rack up more debt than money you take in, that means you can't pay the debt.
Here's how they do it
Global banker Playbook:
Step 1. Demand more money printing by controlling the inflation with algorithms price manipulation.
Step 2. Make sure the global credit level is so high everyone is dependent on your system.
Step 3. Promote tech companies like Apple and Tesla keeping the population occupied.
Step 4. Corrupt and influence the media and politicians making people believe the things you want them to believe.
Step 5. Lean back and enjoy the circus while you hang out and have fun with family and friends !
@@johnbauer5783 come on you keep spamming that comment.
@@johnbauer5783 I understand why you spam that comment. I agree with it.
thomas jackson are you with google?
XRP, Inter-ledger protocol
angel melko I don’t think there’s a fixed limit to xrp. Not much better than the dollar then.
XRP is that digital asset
Ben Anderson the bankers choice.
@@gracechan3039 It is
no discussion and recognition about the manipulation by the FED. totally useless drivel
If thats what money makes you look like I,ll stay poor thanks.
Snoooooze festival.
When your done talking to yourselfs, guessing how macro works, make a 5 min video telling us your conclusions...