Let’s convince UNESCO. Jordan has another monument. It will be as important as Petra or even more. There are interesting ruins and reliefs on the Black Desert, dated 8,500 years old. They can only be seen from planes, drones, satellites and helicopters. Archaeologists don't exactly know nowadays what they represent. These ruins really represent embryos of several species in different stages of development and will be able to shed light on the origin of the human being and our planet. When it will be officially confirmed by biologists, this discovery will be a delight for the eyes, shed light to the origin of humanity. Activate the subtitles in English: ua-cam.com/video/rikVfTbX2Mo/v-deo.html It contains the documentation with the Jordanian authorities about this scientific and archaeological discovery.
SAMO: 1) Agree with everything. Flawless. 2) IMO: Likely first settlement is underwater in the Persian Gulf. Optimum geography and environment for early development, and would explain Eurasian dispersal patterns. Unfortunately, optimum hunting-gathering grounds (freshwater marshes) of the pre-glacial and glacial periods are underwater. 3) Might tweak emphasis on civilizational differences in organizing principles - in particular the degree of monopoly power (authority) vs distributed power (markets(rule of law)), because humans maximize rents (extractions) and minimize work (production) in all organizations, and the only method of constraining them we know of is competition. This explains civ differences not only in survivability (producing turnover) but in civ differences in rates of evolution. Again... flawless analysis.
You have to think what people went west to America before the Spanish, like the Vikings, you say by the 12th century the forests had reclaimed the civilization, has their interactions with the civilizations in the Americas decimated them before Europeans discovered it on mass. I often think have say people like the Egyptians or the Greeks sailed west to never return and give the Native Americans some diseases and destroyed civilizations. If we look at Europe and the incoming steppe herders they brought with them the plague which decimated the British Isles 4000 years ago so now the genetics of Britain is 93% steppe herder, this is very similar to Native American and European interaction in terms of replacement.
One aspect I don’t think has been talked about is when a society locks in the social structure to the point of eliminating hope of escaping a dreary life then pressures build to destroy that society.
Love this discussion on pre-history as studied by historians versus archeologists. I think as we learn more about the geography of the late pleistocene and early holocene and explore those late ice-age but now submerged regions which would have likely been the most provident and biologically favorable places during that time we will discover the hard evidence of early settlement in the context of structured hunting/gathering and cultivated natural resources such as agriculture as we now describe it. The deep anaerobic waters of the Black Sea, as technically difficult as they have been, I think are going to be ultimately be a treasure trove of this kind of evidence. Cheers.
Suppose there is a civilization cycle and Rome failing the way it did with saving writing somehow made the next cycle, ours go so much smoother have faster growth and reach new heights. Is it possible if not likely that was the first time writing was remembered enough that someone could ever read the past works? Wouldnt a collapse into even a tiny fraction of the work having access to computers seed a truly fantastic civilisation possibility very quickly, with very hard lessons taught to those with didn't "doomsday" prep
No civilization before has been as large, as global, nor as egalitarian as the one we currently live in. That has to be factored in when attempting to predict the next "fall." In the past, a civilization would collapse when the local environment would no longer support the population. The result would be migration on a mass scale. That is not a scenario that can happen in today's world. If the United States collapses, the people aren't all going to migrate to Mexico or Africa. Rather, what happens is, the shear number of people living on the continent is more likely to reorganize itself and work to solve whatever problems are placing stress on their survival. Small countries in Europe can still migrate during times of suffering, with great difficulty, but not the population of an entire continent. The world today now requires that we stay where we are and figure out a way to survive rather than just picking up and moving to a better field.
Mass migration is already happening, mainly into Europe and North America. Last year alone, 1.7 million migrants entered the USA illegally, on top of a high level of legal immigration. And the fact that civilization is now global only means that the next collapse of a major country is likely to be part of a global collapse (although a small, poor country that is less integrated into the global economy can certainly collapse in isolation - just look at Somalia). There are several triggers that can collapse our civilization. It is only a question of which one gets pulled first. My guess it will be the oil decline trigger. In recent years, 98% of increased oil production was from US fracking of tight oil shale deposits, but those deposits decline very quickly. Meanwhile, the conventional oil production that has been on a plateau since 2005 cannot maintain that plateau much longer. A large part f the world's oil comes from aging "elephant" fields that are either already in decline (including the world's largest field, Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) or will soon be in decline, and those fields decline rapidly. Ghawar is reportedly declining 8% per annum. But if it were not oil, there are multiple other bottlenecks that would send us into a downward spiral at some point. The interaction of multiple stresses will be especially critical.
@@michaels4255 collapse would require a drop in population so severe that there is no longer any local economy. No retail, no farmers, buildings vacant, no tax revenue, government shuts down. When that happens to the major economic powers, then there is a "societal collapse". Not likely. It can happen to a small town and even a small country, although it hasn't in a long time. Not likely to happen to the US, China, Europe, etc. Not without a massive die-off.
A people grow complacent and decadent. By this I mean they stop doing all the things that built their civilization. They take all that's offered by their ancestors, and don't put anything forward to support and maintain it, preferring instead to become absorbed in self-interested trivialities. History reveals this to be the case over and over and over again. It's as predictable as the turning of the seasons. Call it the Seasons of Man. It is what it is, and it will never, ever, change, principally because we are mortal beings. John~ American Net'Zen
So "disciplining workers" in order to produce "beautiful" AI "beautiful" microprocessors, interconnectors is the idea of increasing life quality and civilisation?
@Samo How much has Graham Hancock's writings about a forgotten civilization and Michael A. Cremo and Richard L. Thompson's research into "forbidden archaeology play in this longer view of human civilization?
@@SamoBurja These books came out 20 years ago or so. Hancock has two books that are interesting: Fingerprints of the gods and underworld. I haven't read any of his other books, because after a while it feels like one is over milking the money teat.
Would you agree that American ethical committees for medical experiments are an example of this "social institute gone astray" trend? I want to check whether I understand you right and try to come up with my own example to check
You are overseeing the possibility that the very social technology, on our case human-hyper-explotative industrial hyperproduction lowers the quality of life, creates an unsustainable demographic mass of human matter, creates massive geopolitical tensions but most of all materially extinguishes the possibility of stable life.
Lets say there is a person P who has a set of behaviors S, for their entire life. Historically, P was a founder and founded an institution that withstood the test of time and had extraordinary impact. Now say there is a second person P' who also exhibits behavior set S for their entire life. They found an institution, but the institution doesn't have any impact and it does not withstand the test of time. If Great Founder Theory says that people need to not only hold positions of power, but also found long-lived and impactful institutions, then is it even possible for Great Founder Theory to be predictive? In other words, can you look at P and P' while they are alive and tell the difference between them, because one is a Great Founder and the other is not, without waiting hundreds of years to see if the institution meets the requirements?
@@sithys if a great founder has shite successors, then the institution will not last. So the issue is choosing worthy and capable successors and having reliable systems of power transference.
The attempted analysis of these questions tends often to the naive. The questioner too often takes for granted the existence of a civilization and therefore miscasts the inquiry as an endeavor to discover what could possibly have destroyed something the questioner regards as an inherently robust. practically monolithic structure, when in fact actual civilization is more of a somewhat tottering affair teetering or even reeling down time's road in a manner more befitting a Rube Goldberg machine or even a house of cards, susceptible to collapse at any moment when any of its key underpinnings might for some reason fail. The truth is that the life of any given civilization, just as the life of any given individual itself, is at least somewhat fragile and is kept together only by rather scrupulously observing the requirements that emerge for sustaining it. The real question, then, is not so much what caused any given civilization to fail, but rather what caused it to form and then to hold together in the first place. Until you comprehend what a civilization is made up of in the first place you are in no position to meaningfully analyze what caused it to fall apart. And lastly, one of the key elements so easily overlooked is the highly intangible psychological one of mass or group emotions; there must be a DESIRE by enough of a civilization's participants to supply the requirements needed for a civilization's continued survival: ua-cam.com/video/KNQRqJitqNI/v-deo.html
@Loss of Social Tech: Sort of like Ad Executives that are hired because they have the right degree, but they instead are people taught to be activists that end up alienating their biggest customer base.
Zachariah stitching already took aspas where You. Even Zachariah stitching say there was people when the fallen Angels came that's what we want to get into
talking about spacex vs NASA and Putin failing to industrialize Russia and never mentioning the elephant in the room which is the free market as a social tech that enables all of this vs state-run command-structure economies that fail without exception
Really go back you got to start at least with it fallen angels with 450 thousand years 450 thousand years unless you can go back past four hundred fifty thousand years you ain't saying nothing
"Why Do Civilizations Collapse? And Is Ours Next?" Let's hope so.
The Great Leveler: violence and the history of inequality, by Walter Scheidel contains many insights that connect to this excellent subject.
Commenting for the algorithm and because I appear to be first.
Good job.
Let’s convince UNESCO. Jordan has another monument. It will be as important as Petra or even more. There are interesting ruins and reliefs on the Black Desert, dated 8,500 years old. They can only be seen from planes, drones, satellites and helicopters. Archaeologists don't exactly know nowadays what they represent. These ruins really represent embryos of several species in different stages of development and will be able to shed light on the origin of the human being and our planet. When it will be officially confirmed by biologists, this discovery will be a delight for the eyes, shed light to the origin of humanity. Activate the subtitles in English: ua-cam.com/video/rikVfTbX2Mo/v-deo.html It contains the documentation with the Jordanian authorities about this scientific and archaeological discovery.
SAMO:
1) Agree with everything. Flawless.
2) IMO: Likely first settlement is underwater in the Persian Gulf. Optimum geography and environment for early development, and would explain Eurasian dispersal patterns. Unfortunately, optimum hunting-gathering grounds (freshwater marshes) of the pre-glacial and glacial periods are underwater.
3) Might tweak emphasis on civilizational differences in organizing principles - in particular the degree of monopoly power (authority) vs distributed power (markets(rule of law)), because humans maximize rents (extractions) and minimize work (production) in all organizations, and the only method of constraining them we know of is competition. This explains civ differences not only in survivability (producing turnover) but in civ differences in rates of evolution.
Again... flawless analysis.
#3 is well put. I despise Marxists because they deny such principled, crowning theses like that
You have to think what people went west to America before the Spanish, like the Vikings, you say by the 12th century the forests had reclaimed the civilization, has their interactions with the civilizations in the Americas decimated them before Europeans discovered it on mass. I often think have say people like the Egyptians or the Greeks sailed west to never return and give the Native Americans some diseases and destroyed civilizations. If we look at Europe and the incoming steppe herders they brought with them the plague which decimated the British Isles 4000 years ago so now the genetics of Britain is 93% steppe herder, this is very similar to Native American and European interaction in terms of replacement.
I remember American Choppers....
An empire was built and then crumbled immediately.
One aspect I don’t think has been talked about is when a society locks in the social structure to the point of eliminating hope of escaping a dreary life then pressures build to destroy that society.
Egyptian pyramids, sphinx and underground megalithic structures might be over 20.000 years old...
Love this discussion on pre-history as studied by historians versus archeologists. I think as we learn more about the geography of the late pleistocene and early holocene and explore those late ice-age but now submerged regions which would have likely been the most provident and biologically favorable places during that time we will discover the hard evidence of early settlement in the context of structured hunting/gathering and cultivated natural resources such as agriculture as we now describe it. The deep anaerobic waters of the Black Sea, as technically difficult as they have been, I think are going to be ultimately be a treasure trove of this kind of evidence. Cheers.
Suppose there is a civilization cycle and Rome failing the way it did with saving writing somehow made the next cycle, ours go so much smoother have faster growth and reach new heights. Is it possible if not likely that was the first time writing was remembered enough that someone could ever read the past works? Wouldnt a collapse into even a tiny fraction of the work having access to computers seed a truly fantastic civilisation possibility very quickly, with very hard lessons taught to those with didn't "doomsday" prep
Rome is still alive and kicking. Don't be fooled.
@@natashamaier5233 Rome transformed into Byzantium,the Holy Roman Empire and then the nation states of Europe.
Dank
No civilization before has been as large, as global, nor as egalitarian as the one we currently live in. That has to be factored in when attempting to predict the next "fall." In the past, a civilization would collapse when the local environment would no longer support the population. The result would be migration on a mass scale. That is not a scenario that can happen in today's world. If the United States collapses, the people aren't all going to migrate to Mexico or Africa. Rather, what happens is, the shear number of people living on the continent is more likely to reorganize itself and work to solve whatever problems are placing stress on their survival. Small countries in Europe can still migrate during times of suffering, with great difficulty, but not the population of an entire continent.
The world today now requires that we stay where we are and figure out a way to survive rather than just picking up and moving to a better field.
Mass migration is already happening, mainly into Europe and North America. Last year alone, 1.7 million migrants entered the USA illegally, on top of a high level of legal immigration. And the fact that civilization is now global only means that the next collapse of a major country is likely to be part of a global collapse (although a small, poor country that is less integrated into the global economy can certainly collapse in isolation - just look at Somalia). There are several triggers that can collapse our civilization. It is only a question of which one gets pulled first. My guess it will be the oil decline trigger. In recent years, 98% of increased oil production was from US fracking of tight oil shale deposits, but those deposits decline very quickly. Meanwhile, the conventional oil production that has been on a plateau since 2005 cannot maintain that plateau much longer. A large part f the world's oil comes from aging "elephant" fields that are either already in decline (including the world's largest field, Ghawar in Saudi Arabia) or will soon be in decline, and those fields decline rapidly. Ghawar is reportedly declining 8% per annum. But if it were not oil, there are multiple other bottlenecks that would send us into a downward spiral at some point. The interaction of multiple stresses will be especially critical.
@@michaels4255 collapse would require a drop in population so severe that there is no longer any local economy. No retail, no farmers, buildings vacant, no tax revenue, government shuts down. When that happens to the major economic powers, then there is a "societal collapse".
Not likely. It can happen to a small town and even a small country, although it hasn't in a long time. Not likely to happen to the US, China, Europe, etc. Not without a massive die-off.
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Wow!!!! Great interview!!!! 5 Stars!!!!!
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these guys are good. thanks.
A people grow complacent and decadent. By this I mean they stop doing all the things that built their civilization.
They take all that's offered by their ancestors, and don't put anything forward to support and maintain it, preferring instead to become absorbed in self-interested trivialities. History reveals this to be the case over and over and over again. It's as predictable as the turning of the seasons.
Call it the Seasons of Man. It is what it is, and it will never, ever, change, principally because we are mortal beings.
John~
American Net'Zen
So "disciplining workers" in order to produce "beautiful" AI "beautiful" microprocessors, interconnectors is the idea of increasing life quality and civilisation?
@Samo How much has Graham Hancock's writings about a forgotten civilization and Michael A. Cremo and Richard L. Thompson's research into "forbidden archaeology play in this longer view of human civilization?
Haven't yet read them! Will add to my list.
@@SamoBurja These books came out 20 years ago or so. Hancock has two books that are interesting: Fingerprints of the gods and underworld. I haven't read any of his other books, because after a while it feels like one is over milking the money teat.
YES
Would you agree that American ethical committees for medical experiments are an example of this "social institute gone astray" trend? I want to check whether I understand you right and try to come up with my own example to check
Everything in our society is NOT getting BETTER.
You are overseeing the possibility that the very social technology, on our case human-hyper-explotative industrial hyperproduction lowers the quality of life, creates an unsustainable demographic mass of human matter, creates massive geopolitical tensions but most of all materially extinguishes the possibility of stable life.
Between the time when the oceans drank Atlantis and the rise of the sons of Arias, there was an age undreamed of...
"Psychohistory is not real".
I didn't expect him to be a Foundation fan!
EDUCATION is not more expensive, it is FREE in civilised countries.
Lets say there is a person P who has a set of behaviors S, for their entire life. Historically, P was a founder and founded an institution that withstood the test of time and had extraordinary impact. Now say there is a second person P' who also exhibits behavior set S for their entire life. They found an institution, but the institution doesn't have any impact and it does not withstand the test of time.
If Great Founder Theory says that people need to not only hold positions of power, but also found long-lived and impactful institutions, then is it even possible for Great Founder Theory to be predictive? In other words, can you look at P and P' while they are alive and tell the difference between them, because one is a Great Founder and the other is not, without waiting hundreds of years to see if the institution meets the requirements?
You seem to have fell into some circular reasoning here. You're aren't actually challenging Great Founder Theory.
What is the circular reasoning exactly?
@@sithys if a great founder has shite successors, then the institution will not last. So the issue is choosing worthy and capable successors and having reliable systems of power transference.
The attempted analysis of these questions tends often to the naive. The questioner too often takes for granted the existence of a civilization and therefore miscasts the inquiry as an endeavor to discover what could possibly have destroyed something the questioner regards as an inherently robust. practically monolithic structure, when in fact actual civilization is more of a somewhat tottering affair teetering or even reeling down time's road in a manner more befitting a Rube Goldberg machine or even a house of cards, susceptible to collapse at any moment when any of its key underpinnings might for some reason fail. The truth is that the life of any given civilization, just as the life of any given individual itself, is at least somewhat fragile and is kept together only by rather scrupulously observing the requirements that emerge for sustaining it. The real question, then, is not so much what caused any given civilization to fail, but rather what caused it to form and then to hold together in the first place. Until you comprehend what a civilization is made up of in the first place you are in no position to meaningfully analyze what caused it to fall apart. And lastly, one of the key elements so easily overlooked is the highly intangible psychological one of mass or group emotions; there must be a DESIRE by enough of a civilization's participants to supply the requirements needed for a civilization's continued survival: ua-cam.com/video/KNQRqJitqNI/v-deo.html
@Loss of Social Tech: Sort of like Ad Executives that are hired because they have the right degree, but they instead are people taught to be activists that end up alienating their biggest customer base.
I can't imagine it.
How do you spell the Chinese civilization mentioned around 38:30? Lai Jaoi?
I believe he his referring to the Late Zhao dynasty...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri%E1%BB%87u_dynasty
Zachariah stitching already took aspas where You. Even Zachariah stitching say there was people when the fallen Angels came that's what we want to get into
talking about spacex vs NASA and Putin failing to industrialize Russia and never mentioning the elephant in the room which is the free market as a social tech that enables all of this vs state-run command-structure economies that fail without exception
And Rome is too recent to be studying for history atlixco back beyond Atlantis
His is rewriting and senarios of making it
Not all women age the same. There are the exceptions. Hopefully, the same holds true for unique civilizations such as ours.
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BECAUSE EVIL MEN
STEAL POWER AND
CONTROLS
💪
Samo is an amazingly low-fallacy thinker.another example of such is vitalik buterin
Why aren't more people asking these questions pure ignorance 🙄 we are all fucked lol 😂 😆 🤣
Palestine, not Israel.
Really go back you got to start at least with it fallen angels with 450 thousand years 450 thousand years unless you can go back past four hundred fifty thousand years you ain't saying nothing