I own a bracelet made out of lapis lazuli that I use to “direct my anxiety” into. The “belief” that It’s absorbing my anxious feelings actually tricks my brain into calming down. Brains are weird, man.
Yep, the placebo effect in practice, where the brain believes it's being healed or helped so it releases those good ole happy chemicals and makes you feel better. Fascinating subject
I used to think karma was real. Going through my divorce I was taking some solace in that karma would eventually catch up with her and my ex friend. Well once I started being more rational after the emotional hurt, I realized there is no cosmic force of justice, just that people who exhibit a certain behavior time and again and never facing the consequences because someone was always there to support them wont be there and it will eventually be their undoing. Now I just smile and reply with the dismissive K when I get messages from her. Thanks human nature!
Divorce sucks ass. But you’re right, at least people who treat others like garbage are more likely to face negative consequences. It’s when they don’t face consequences that makes things really annoying. 2 of the worst people I’ve ever met in my life are probably still scamming people for money to buy shoes and clothes. The funny thing is that they’re doing all of this while being members of a religious cult I use to be in…
This is why religious people wonder how non religious people could possibly have morality because we don’t believe we’re being watched. Which is essentially admitting that they are only moral because they think they’re being watched. Though I do believe they would be moral without their religion, since many Xtians when pressed will admit that they believe their god has done and condoned things that they themselves find immoral.
The walls are watching. I have imanginary friends. They are simply more me. There is not enough space inside of myself, so therefore the walls are watching.
Science and math is one of the foundations that helps me psychologically. When I used to believe in karma or some kind of divine punishment, I would really internalize it as some kind of consequence I deserved. When I started to push back against that tendency and neutralize things (that a lot of things weren’t personal or some higher being wasn’t punishing me), I started to feel okay again and be able to actually cope with the uncertainty of life.
I don't understand how you can stop to believe in karma? It doesn't teach punishment. Karma speaks about the process of probabilities in actions. It's about bettering yourself as a human being so that you can be reborn into the next realm (Good Karma will have you be reborn as a god, bad Karma will have you be reborn as an animal). There is no punishment involved because Karma is a dynamic & cyclical concept. If you were to live the worst possible life imaginable (murder, rape, et cetera) you would find yourself reborn in one of the many Hells were your body would be cleansed by Enma so that you can be reborn from a clean slate and start the cycling of collecting Karma once again. This is what is meant by Samsara. Essentially, Karma & the rebirth is an allegory of life. Create good actions and the chances of good things happening will increase, and vice versa. I would all together just stop treating religious ideas as something one can belief in, and instead just treat them as stories meant to be interpreted. That's what they were meant to be originally, concepts to be analyzed and thought about and not just blindly followed. The thousand arm buddha (Kan'non) represents the complexity of "truth" through having an eye in each of her endless palms, seeing endless perceptions of reality.
@@dydx_ stop. please stop. I know what the concept of karma is. The problem is the overlap of "getting what you deserve" that underlies this focus on punishment is from christian religion. There's a healthy interpretation of karma being that there's a sort of virtuous spiral because acts of compassion beget acts of compassion. And that's the same with unkind acts. That being said, having the neutrality of the concept that it's about how behavior has impacts makes things a lot more honest because you're not behaving in a way that you believe will come back in a good way for your own benefit, you're understanding that compassion and kindness is something you want to do regardless of if it comes back around to benefit you because you know that's not necessarily going to happen. And you also understand that if something bad does happen, that it's not because you're some bad person, absolutely just a random cause of events and that's okay.
@@Sarah-re7cg We know stuff that happens in life is random. Its not rocket science. The thing is, why don't we see it in the perspective of karma? That way we would be morally bound to do good in the hopes that bad things won't happen to us.
When we are born we are basically hard-wired to assume all our surroundings and events that occur in it are arranged for us, because it facilitates us being taught about the world by our parents. When you're a baby the things moving around about you are typically your parents and other adults, and they're usually doing something with a purpose that aids your survival. You come with a built-in instinct to try to find out what they're doing. This instinct never turns off, it stays with you for the rest of your life. That's why you "feel" like there's some sort of intent behind everything: having this instinct helped facilitate person-to-person learning in your infancy and childhood.
This is some very hardly contrived rationalization LMFAO. You stepped down to some freudian level of fucking your mom bullshit. Correlation is not equal to causation. When you wish to dabble with psychology, you can not allow yourself to generalize to such an extent. Factually speaking: The "intent" thing most likely comes from Christianity. It is definitely not "hard-wired" into us. You can see this when you look at nations like India and people before the emergence of Christianity. This "intent" thing is Christian/Muslim (Historically the, Catholic Church united war-torn Europe at the time through spreading the idea that one EXISTS BECAUSE GOD does you HAVE TO LIVE TO SERVE GOD. This is how they gained power because the Church is the place people have to go to to learn and live according to the words of their gods. If you teach people that they were created on purpose through a omnipotent sentient deity, it leads them to ask why this all-powerful deity has chosen to create them with all the suffering in life. You should research this, I think it would be of benefit for you to understand how faith shapes your perception of reality even if you choose to not believe in it). Anecdotal: I rarely have encountered someone here in Japan believing that there is a reason for why we are nor one who really cares or wants to know; we just kinda are and that's it. The meaning of life, and why we exist is a topic that comes up in plenty of literature. Usually the reason for why we are is a reason that we need to discover for ourselves. If you ever wondered why so many (In relation to the rest of the world) take their craft more serious then the functionality of the creation or the health of our bodies sacrificed in pursuit of our craft, this is one of the factors together with collectivism & shinto. There is no concept for "needing to know why we have to exist", people who speak about this are treated like outcasts, you do not need to know what serves no purpose. As such moral relativism is at the heart of this culture. You can see the lack of needing to know why we exist when looking at ancient Greek mythology too (In case you need some more "western" example). There is no real myth about why humans exist. The only myth there is is the creation, At first there is Chaos alone. Chronos cuts off the Penis from Uranus when he tried having sex with Gaia. This only tells the origin of life, but does not given an intent. There were some outliers, primarily in the mystery religions such as Orphism which believed in salvation from suffering through discarding the Titan blood thus purifying one's divine soul of Dionysus (The approach comes from believing humanity is born out of the ashes from titans and Dionysus after the battle of the gods.) If you look outside your western borders you might realize that most cultures live without this weird obsession, and the cultures that speak of intent are usually the ones with mainly Abrahamic origins or majority of faith. Others (like indians) intent is simply a poetic description on how to get along with others according to their household deity. The only real constant I can think off is the constant of suffering, which to me speaks more about people who never were taught about how to process pain/suffering properly. Strong negative emotions tend to be what most people who turn religious at an older age seem to have in common, though I lack data to corroborate.
IMO, that is a much better hypothesis for the human bias towards assigning agency than the "lion in the bush" story. Humans are very reliant on learning, especially social learning.
@@hamishanderson6738 Maybe doesn't mean quite what you think it means... Physicists love using common words in peculiar ways ;) An 'observer' is just any measuring device, not just someone/something conscious. Better wording is probably: It is impossible to measure a property of something without affecting some other property of it.
The Skinner Box experiments show even other animals (like pigeons and rats) will develop superstitious behaviours if given a reward food after random lengths of times in an enclosed box. The animal tends to repeat its sequence of behaviours that occur most closely in time to when the reward was given. After numerous repeats of this random reward giving, the animal's behaviors can become quite elaborate/complex as it tries to trigger the reward by going further and further back in it previous acts list. Quite intriguing really.
Thanks Dave, very good summary. I do take exception to the 'hot hand' analogy because of the added complexity of the psychology of athletic performance. Being in "the zone" is a real thing.
not only that but if you're taking repeated shots at the same target you can figure out the right force and direction to push the ball in after repeated trials (so the instances of the event are not independent)
Even if the events are independent, the correlation may still be causally derived, since they may have increased performance temporarily due to external factors that are causally linked (ie they had a good routine that day, slept well, are happy, are fit and energised), so even if you don't *necessarily* conclude anything from the samples, at least some part of the sample is a determinant in the future outcomes (in short, the "50% average" of the player is only correct between days, not within a single day)
Every day, Professor Dave, you release another video that I can simply share instead of explaining the specifics of my beliefs and nonbeliefs. it is kinda scary how well and accurately you explain everything I want to say. I love your videos and have been watching you for years. I recently started university and you have been of great help as well. thank you so much, for everything.
I struggle with anger a lot and keep a Hematite Ring on a chain around my neck, when I start feeling myself get angry I take the ring off the chain and wear it. I genuinely feel myself get calmer when I have the ring with me, and especially when I'm wearing it. I know deep down it is a placebo, and the ring itself isn't doing anything to improve my mood, but it's better than just being angry all the time which makes me miserable.
@@spacix4118 We were wired this way so that we could not be stupid, because many people would stay stupid with "logic" which is really just illogical nonsense originating from depreaved parts of the brain that are hungry for obtaining illogical stuff inexchange for being callibrated back to normal.
The whole 50% chance of red or black thing always confuses a lot of people. That's the thing, like you said, about some superstitious beliefs. The "certainty" that some "lucky" object or ritual will boost your abilities can so easily trick you into actually doing better just from doing the act or wearing the item that it's JUST like the placebo effect. And _that_ is a real thing which does help heal people, so why shouldn't the extra mental/emotional boost from the lucky thing help in the same way? Thanks for what you do, Professor Dave! ❤️❤️
@@Winasaurus It's why I carry 59 knifes with me on a plane, the same number of passengers on the plane. The odds of there being 60 knifes are 1 in 60...
I like Shermer's explanation for why humans assign agency to seemingly random patterns: There is little natural selection against making type 2 errors (belief that the rustling in the grass is a predator when it's really just the wind) but a large selection against making type 1 errors (belief that the rustling is just the wind when it's really a predator). Over generations, this selects for assigning agency to the randomness around us.
I use this psychology to my advantage. Sometimes my day doesn't begin well - some misfortune, things don't go as I want. Then I limit myself to routine stuff for the rest of the day (or half a day). No hard decisions that require thinking, no difficult chores, no new initiatives - until good luck returns. At worst next day things are normal again. The explanation is simple of course. Adversity causes frustration, which results in inferior assessments. Good luck cheers me up, makes me optimistic again. That demonstrably improves whatever I want to do.
Fantastic video Dave! I'd also like to add that religion and superstitions can act as placebos. When we're under duress we reach out to our intangible lifelines for assistance. It's fascinating to me that you can find much more strength than you thought you had when you believe you're not the one at the wheel.
This. People shit on religion so much that they forget that it's not meant to be taken for word. It's simply an intangible construct which we seek to help us out during distress.
Great video. I could not find fault with it. I would only add that trauma, abuse and neglect feed all aspects these affects. They increase the mental and emotional identification with superstition and religion. The recovery from trauma, abuse and neglect causes you to understand the affects you describe so well.
I haven't looked on your channel for a little while and I have to point out how much the visualisation in your videos has improved over this short time period. Do you draw or animate all this stuff all by yourself? If so, huge props to you and if not, huge props to the person or the people doing so. This looks phenomenal
In VERY special cases, small numbers can be expected to act like large numbers. But, for the purposes of this video, your statement on the Law of Small Numbers is absolutely correct.
"It is not the aim of science to open a door to infinite wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error." -Bertold Brecht I imagine some who watch this video might take offense to your ACCURATE conflation of silly superstitions with their religious worldview, cognitively speaking. The more we as a society learn about how the world, civilizations, and our own minds work, the better off everyone will be…including the planet itself. This isn’t hard to argue. What’s hard is convincing the faithful to keep their superstitious beliefs out of our political discourse, since our laws concern us ALL. Great summation of how these beliefs operate in the human mind!
another thing that is weird is how our brains are responsible for pain. We can injure ourselves and not even realize it or deliberately defer the pain by controlling our mind
I think a quick rundown of the Skinner Box experiment would have been useful, where pigeons got seed at regular timed intervals independently of whatever the birds were doing at the time. Whatever action they happened to be doing when the seed dropped (cooing, strutting, bobbing their head, etc.) they kept doing whenever they were hungry because they came to associate that action as the cause for the food to appear. It's been done with humans as well in the form of dollar bills dispensing from a machine every 30 seconds in a room full of dummy levers, buttons, and switches. The money dispensed every 30 seconds no matter what the participant did but almost none of them realized this. The vast majority kept doing whatever action or sequence of actions they happened to be doing when first bill got dispensed. Education levels didn't seem to matter. The desire to link correlation with causation (even without any justifiable reason) is something brains seem very much designed to do.
I think that study can just as easily mean that people can be tricked and misdirected if you make a situation look like a different situation, and that the flow of time is subjective. Without counting, how easily will you know something comes in exactly 30-second intervals? n Now imagine you're in a new situation and there's a bunch of random levers. Just an alternative reading, psychological studies are very up to interpretation.
@@Shoobster the point though was that most participants were extremely confident that their actions dictated when the money was dispensed even though there was no logical reason to believe this. It speaks loudly to how hard our brains try to link correlation to causation even when there is no reason to do so, and thus superstition is created.
@@Shoobster yes, i doubt I would have had the precise timing of 30 seconds down, but I do think most people would have figured it out much sooner if there weren't buttons, levers, and switches (the illusion of agency). it's those inert devices (which stand in place of rituals, religions, superstitions, etc.) that cause a false sense of agency of pre-determined outcomes
I think the "Hot hand" superstition might be the only one with a slight sense of truth, as basketball is way more complicated than shots made the exact same way, when a player goes on a "hot streak" it could be because the player is more relaxed than usual, the defense of the other team is failing or even because the player is in "the zone". Hot streaks also tend to put a lot of pressure on the other team, so a professional athlete given more space due to the pressure the other team feels can perform better, creating a self-sufficient cycle.
True, but with all sporting events, any player or team can go on a statistically plausible winning or losing streak. These can then be exacerbated by an increase or decrease of confidence. It's important that the statistical probabilities are understood.
When I was about 7-8 my parents ended up getting me a dream catcher, I forget exactly why they did but what I do remember is after hearing the explanation of how it supposedly worked and hanging it in my room, I stopped having nightmares as often as I did before. Nowadays I know that it's just an object with no magical/metaphysical properties but I still keep it around because I formed that subconscious link of "if I have this object close by when I sleep then I won't have bad dreams".
The last part of this video is so interesting and provides an additional perspective on religion in society. I think it’s functionality is a product of a form of maintaining power and preserving a political and social structure. I was trying to think of why it’s still so prominent in society today and found that it provides community and a sense of safety for a lot of people which are part of the human condition. The watchful eye idea and it facilitating cooperation is chefs kiss 💋
Actually, religion has often absolutely destroyed the political structure. I am a Zoroastrian, and that is how my religion started. I consider my religion to complement my Marxism.
@Chris Paul I think you have the very wrong idea about atheists and agnostics. I was raised Catholic and broke off from it coming of age. This comment "God will show you the absolute truth if you desire it and leave your arrogance at the door." is the definition of arrogance. We are humans. We don't know what we do not know and I find it to be a new order of arrogance when humans try to tell me what God is and is not and especially what is means to have a relationship with said higher being. You don't own this concept. Man, human whatever does not own this concept. Belief in the concept of a higher being is one thing, belief in a christian god is another. This video isn't some kind of "debunking" of the concept of a higher being itself, it's about the secular roles tainted by human who utilize religion as a weapon and psychological fallback for comfort and control and order. All I have to say is don't tell me who God is and what a relationship with this being looks like because if that's what you think it is, good for you but you don't own it as a concept.
@Chris Paul you just gave an account of a psychological benefit of religion in your life lol what? Also, giving one counter example of religion having a negative effect on psychological health doesn’t knock down the argument of psychological benefit lol okay, that’s nice you’re sharing that with me, it’s actually a supporting example of what I said in the first place. What I said isn’t a straw man, but ironically after you made that claim you yourself made a straw man. 🤦🏻♀️ no, I’m not insinuating that at all.
@Chris Paul ??? I’m not an atheist lol I’m agnostic. No, I think you’re the only one…why would that in any way be ironic? Also, again, your entire story you shared, you’re talking about how faith helped you through a really emotional and challenging time. Okay, it’s not going out on a limb to say that religion has been a great psychological benefit to you. I don’t understand why you commented in the first place because your comment supported my original comment anyways. You just seem like someone is threatening your faith now or something. This video doesn’t take anything away from the concept of god and the existence of a higher being. It’s talking about the sociological and psychological implications of organized religion.
A nurse I know insists that things are crazy at work during a full moon. Thanks to confirmation bias, she forgets strange things that happen during other phases and the mundane nights during a full moon.
I worked at a youth correctional facility. Crazy things happened all the time. There would always be an increase around a full moon. Was never something I thought to be true until experienced first hand.
@@SgtD85 My man, there are people who eat tide pods. You underestimate the stupidity of humanity if you think people wouldn't act out just cause "haha funny full moon"
Sports gets weird though because mood, attitude, and competition etc all play a part in “hot hand”. There is an emotional and physical aspect that makes it fundamentally different from the roulette example
Another aspect of agency is personification vs. the genetic advantage of being able to "read" other people in social situations. For example, it benefits us to know that someone in our social group is angry, and that ability carried over into the natural world as per your "agency" comment. If an ancient human saw that there was a big storm on the water, and taking a boat out would be a bad idea... they might say "the sea is angry today". Applying a human characteristic to the event helps explain it and make sense of it. Once you go down that path, you end up with the god Poseidon, the goddess Ganga, or other gods/spirits.
Hot Hands could be a real thing sometimes. Humans are so complex that skill at a task may be sensitive to your level of confidence, nutrition, hydration, calmness, how well you slept last night, and more. So many factors, but summarise by saying you have 'luck'. When you have Hot Hands, you may indeed have increased skill, or it could just be dumb chance, but you might as well go with it at the time.
Interesting stuff here! I'd like to add a story about how the belief in agency combined with mental perception affected me. I noticed a blur in front of my motorcycle once, and after I was able to discern it was a deer, I then went to apply my brakes only to find that I'd already done so. Even though I know that my subconscious acted on incomplete information to apply the brakes, nothing magical, it still feels like an outside entity had acted. This helped me understand how people may have accepted belief in guardian angels, kami or deities, or magic objects.
Your video raised an interesting point about the human tendency to find patterns in randomness, leading to beliefs in superstitions and the supernatural. We often overattribute agency and create elaborate causal theories to explain random events. The examples of the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy illustrate how we get tricked by the law of small numbers. This video does not delve into the validity of superstitious beliefs or the existence of ghosts. Instead, it explores the science behind why we, as humans, are drawn to these beliefs.
Problem with superstition is that it's all regional. And the more you learn about different superstitions, you have to follow all of them. Now if I consider all the different superstitions I've heard from different places, I want to stop something I said from happening, I'll have to touch wood, knock on wood, touch grass, touch green, spit, or throw some food items. It's so tiring.
I pretty much agree with TJump, that everything is set in motion and there's no way to displace what will occur. But that doesn't give me much solace as my life is falling apart. Maybe a brief respite here and there, but the inescapable anxiety always comes back. I grew up Jehovahs Witness and we didnt buy into the mainstream "accept Jesus' throbbing, pulsating love deep inside you to feel better" mantra, and after I quit that cult 26 years ago I never bought into it, but I find it fascinating how people can represent themselves as happy and well-adjusted because a magical dude in the sky tells them they can be so.
“Hot hand” in basketball doesn’t work the way you describe it, in my opinion. One shot is not independent from the ones taken shortly before and after. Confidence plays a huge role in the streak, gaining confidence after making shots, losing it after missing them. Some players are more or less influenced by this psyche. Truly great shooters have shooter’s amnesia, which means they are highly confident (arguably delusion) of their chances of making a shot regardless of the outcome of previous shots.
I can heavily recommend the book titled "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman as an introducition to decision making, including most of the biases mentioned in the video.
It only makes sense to me that our ancient ancestors believed in the supernatural. Since the scientific method hadn't yet been discovered, it meant believing that wind had its own intentions, or that the exploding volcano was angry about something. If a river tore through your village and flooded it, it was because someone had done something to piss it off, or hadn't made the proper sacrifices, etc. Eventually these things became seen as gods and goddesses, whom people needed to please through rituals, sacrifice, etc.
For anyone interested, I recommend looking into Skinner's Pigeon experiment, in which he observed possible superstitious behaviors of pigeons in between feedings
Oh look, the exact same video I wanted to make for several years but I don't know how to phrase any of this without offending 99% of humanity. Well done, as always.
This is such a fascinating area of research for me. I highly recommend The Hidden Brain podcast and book Useful Delusions: the power and paradox of the self deceiving mind
I very recently gave myself a great lesson on mindset and confirmation bias. I was driving with my wife on a motorway (in the UK) and noticed a car with the letters ZZ in the number plate. Now I always thought that the letter Z in UK registrations was reserved for special vehicles (specialist imports, kit cars etc) so was quite surprised to see this and then of course as we continued our journey it seemed like every other vehicle had the letter Z in the registration plate including 2 vehicles belonging to near neighbours which I'd never noticed before!
@@OGreenWorId ??? Do you know what the placebo effect is? If Im in pain, and I take somethin that I THINK relieves the pain, my brain will reward that action with dopamine which IS a painkiller. But I havent actually treated anything. When that dopamine wears off, the problem will still be there
I was raised supernatural in a Pentecostal atmospher It never took as soon as I was 16 I left and was allowed to think my own thoughts I read every religious ‘holy’ book many times and became terrified at the stupidity and horror and obvious BS Natural was super and now it’s almost dead I’m a Horticulturist and things ain’t growing right for years but getting worse fast Beware inverted day/night temps…warmer nights halts crop producing they stop only after 2 warmer nights Happened in NW GA locally…mine did not start back and farmers market had slim pickings 2021
Transcranial magnetic stimulation is my favorite demonstration. I bring it up whenever someone mentions "near death" experiences. Oh sure, messing with brain chemistry is extra special when your heart stops but not when you strap a magnet to your head. Death has poetic weight. Electrical signals malfunctions don't.
@@valinorean4816 I haven't read that, so I'm unable to give my thoughts. However, there is no need to debunk resurrection stories; they debunk themselves by proposing that the laws of physics have been suspended.
@@spectreskeptic3493 The problem is that this is not a convincing reply for a believer, who thinks that with God everything is possible and all that - whereas that work actually makes them silent, in my experience! But don't take my word for it - do you know someone religious who you debated a lot, were frustrated with, etc? Send it to them and watch their reaction! (you can find it in Wikipedia, for example)
@@valinorean4816 I read the wiki and looks interesting. I've heard apologists dismiss these kinds of "alternative" explanations and insist the Bible is inerrant and therefore the miraculous accounts must be true. However, I'm intrigued, so I've added it to my book list. Thanks.
I have a friend who suddenly needed space after I told her I had a rough night of sleep at her place (I had a "hag" dream and probably a bit of apnea). She recently (within the last year) got deep into spirituality, and put a spell on her apartment to protect her from people who had negative intentions for her. Ergo she assumed immediately that I had negative intentions for her and she was now uncomfortable with me being in her house. I'm concerned she's over relying on spirituality and it's closing her from the truth that I was just asleep one l in an emotional state and dealing with some apnea.
I don't know if it's the way you explain things or what but since starting to watch you over the past few months I am actually starting to notice I'm understanding allot more of the terminology you use. And understand what I thought to be complex things alot easier.might I add I failed bad in school but kept trying to self teach after I left
Eh, idk about the basketball example, I know we're applying a 50% shooting average to the player, but in a real world scenario there are both physical and psychological reasons that a person who made 7 shots in row would be more like to make another one rather than it being a 50/50 chance. For one they would have more direct and recent experience than usual with the force and angle of an accurate shot and they would probably be more confident due to previous success which could make it easier for them to process that information.
Superstition in birds has also been documented. In randomized training and reward programs, where the actions and rewards were uncoupled, pigeons would come to wrongly associate certain behaviors with outcomes. Guilt by association, not causation. Basically, what ever random activity they were doing when a reward appeared, they would engage in that even when there was no statistical correlation. They would even pass that behavior to others, even when it did not reliably generate the desired outcome. Sound familiar?
@@spacix4118 I work in community pharmacy. I have observed the customers do arrive in waves, so I theorise that it probably has more to do with the bus times.
While you can say "there's no clear meaning to life," I personally think different. I think it's quite clear what the meaning of life is. It's just that nobody really wants to acknowledge it. The meaning of life, the universe and everything isn't 42. It's simply the spread of information. Whether that information is physical or metaphysical in nature.
Another reason why religion has been perpetuated by certain agents is because of the authority that it bestows onto those who know how to wield it. For instance, if you are the exclusive medium of communication for the most powerfull entity in the universe, then that makes you the second most powerfull entity in the universe (provided people believe it). So of the population of people making prophecies, some sample will get it right, and in absence of any better explanation (like science), people will believe they are prophets, which gives them alot of power and influence.
yeahms the comfort of saying that you know is so good that it's dangerous. if you wanna be sure of something just say that you ''don't know'', can be better for you
I'll have to disagree with the basketball hot hand analogy. Anyone who plays sports knows that when you're in the zone, you can almost do no wrong, and when you're out of the zone everything feels hard. If a basketball player is having one of those days where everything comes together perfectly, they are no longer shooting based upon a lifetime average, they are having a moment. Which means there next shot is more likely to be successful than not. This is not only because they're in an incredible groove and completely in the zone, it's also because of the rhythm and the learning curve in that particular moment. Every successful shot you make increases your chances of having another one. Particularly when they come close together. In surfing we all notice this. One of your friends will just be having the perfect day. They are always in the right spot. They're surfing well above historical averages. And then another person is just in the wrong place every time, paddles for the wrong way, and their surfing is stiff. Well below their historical averages. This is because there are so many factors that go into having a great session. Your mental state. How quickly you get your first good ride. Who else is in the water at the time. How you feel physically and how often your next wave comes after your previous wave. When everything is in alignment, everyone notices.
If people often require fear of oversight or retribution to behave, it hints how religion actually has wisdom in it, regardless whether the idea of "godz" is incorrect...
This is great, i had actually wondered in the past if you could slightly cheat rng by predicting based on probability. I.E. Always choosing the lower total when flipping a coin, or a default if its even. So for example you are at 7 heads and 3 tails, you choose tails because in order to regress towards the mean, you are expecting more tails than heads at that moment. I wrote a small program where i could choose heads or tails and a small coin flip animation would play and then increment counts of heads, tails, and my correct guesses. I ran 3 copies for 100 ish rolls each, heads only and tails only both were close to 50%, while the strategy was closer to 60%. This felt very cool. I just now wrote a different function that does that same strategy automatically, and ran it on 1,000,000 samples, and the pass result was essentially 50%. I felt like i had made a mistake, so i kept playing around with it. Making it only guess heads, or use the strategy, and no matter what at a high sample size, it matched 50%. I was confused a bit, and started only running individual groups of 10. I found that only guessing heads was very inconsistent as expected on such a small sample size, anywhere from 1/10 to 9/10 guesses. Which isn't surprising. However, when i ran only 10 at a time using the strategy, it definitely felt closer to 60% and in a good chunk of rolls it didn't ever go under 40% accuracy, while getting as high as 90% occasionally. This is a very interesting find to me, and I'm not sure how to interpret the data. I had thought I found a way to perform ever so slightly better by meta analysis on independent random chances, but once you escape a small scale, without fail, there is no difference. And now I only have to wonder, in the dozens of groups of 10 or my groups of 100, which seemed to have a pattern, am i still just seeing things? Wanting there to be strategy to randomness? Is there really a meta strategy that only works with a low sample count? Or is it still just that even here the amount of tests are too small to make judgements. I knew going in it was almost certainly not going to work, and yet still felt i had cheated the system when i started seeing non 50% results. The brain really really wants to see patterns, and it can not only lead to superstition, but manipulate how we interpret raw data. Numbers do not lie, objective data is always objective. But how our minds use that objective data isnt quite as rigid, and its very easy to be tricked even if you have a strong grasp on the concepts. There's a reason that even very smart people can succumb to superstitious or wishful thinking, its just something that creeps in on us. You don't need to be stupid to believe silly things, you just need the right set of circumstances to sufficiently convince your bias.
In terms of the golf study mentioned near the end, I don't think confidence is necessarily the best explanation. A good performance outwardly on a task tends to imply that the inner-process has gone smoothly. It may be the certain things like wearing a lucky charm or scratching a part of the arm or whatever result in better performance because of 'memory' and state-of-mind. It seems fairly plausible that the seemingly random superstitious behavior acts as a pneumonic to remind the brain how to enter a state of peak performance.
One common practice within supernatural belief systems is meditation, which is often associated with tapping into a "higher source" by 'silencing' the physical body. Since no longer believing in anything supernatural, I've contemplated the benefits of meditation and personally see them more as result of "focusing on nothing/nothingness" as opposed to visualizing some order through a mystical force. Reminding myself "Everything is simply here, existing, and I'm okay with that", can be very relieving when life gets crazy. This can also ease the fear of death in a way, helping you to keep in mind that, while it is scary for the brain to process the occurrence, it's a natural part of biology, and you'll just return to the state you were in prior to being alive.
@@Pancakegr8 personally I don't like the idea of my entire consciousness ceasing to exist... I'm not entirely sure if I'd rather an eternity of torture so long as I get to exist forever, but my bias is heavily in favour of staying existent. (so if I'm being consistent, the pain that usually precedes death is not so much the concern as it is death itself)
@@Pancakegr8 clarifying further, I would say that why I do not fear sleep compared to death is 1. I am still in some sense conscious while asleep, just delerious 2. I am sure to regain my normal state of consciousness eventually (so all I have lost is time, not myself)
The only problem I have with the hot hands fallacy is that it assumes that basketball shots are independent and uncorrelated events, like dice rolls. But certainly if a basketball player is playing with an injury they are likely to sink fewer shots than their lifetime average. Likewise, I think it is possible that a player feeling good could sink more shots than average, though I haven't seen any studies about this. If the opposing defense is weak, ditto. But this has to do with physiology, not probability.
Now I better understand why is superstition so common in wonderful people. I think that in religion someone wants me to follow a rule, and out of religion sometimes I would like an object (inanimated or not), follow my rules. Thank you!
I've been told that I should not pluck any white hairs, or they will come in faster. I counter that my white hairs will multiple as I age regardless of whether I pluck them.
I never had a name for it, but the gambler's fallacy is real. I try to explain to people how statistically, when "gambling" (its a video game) that they are just as likely to obtain that rare item on back-to-back tries versus on try 31 and 78, for example. Though even with my background in statistics as a student, it is still fun to try for the "back-to-back" since the joy of getting so lucky is worth the extra few minutes of our time.
I just wanted something that would explain the out-of-body experiences I had some years ago. No I don't use drugs or anything like that. Once I was just laying down, then sat up and saw myself on the bed I was laying and returned to my body desperately. I wasn't dreaming because it was early and I was literally in the middle of a conversation...
It's a shame that Ritual is often tied into supernatural beliefs. Knocking on Wood won't alter your luck, meditation isn't aligning your chakra, and the dead won't hear your eulogy. But they can be calming, offering focus, or a way to punctuate important events and that's more than enough.
6:50 I've had so many arguments with people about "the full moon causing crazy days". It's infuriating. I'll point out "hey nothing bad happened" and they'll just say "not yet" or if something even a little bad happens, say with grumpy customers, they will instantly say "must be the full moon". The moon is always there stupid. It doesn't actually change shape and size that's just the shadow of the earth ughh
@@MagicGonads am I think of eclipses? I might be lmao. I misread that first response my bad. Regardless, the moon doesn't change size or shape it's just a shadow.
Thanks for this video, I've been struggling with this God thing, now I can begin to understand why I want to believe when I know logically it's not true. I'll research more into confirmation bias and the other principles you've mentioned here. My logical brain is happy again.
Professor Dave, your Friday the 13th artwork shows Friday the 2nd, not the 13th (at 0:13 in the video, coincidentally!), and shows a month of 32 days (impossible), and uses an extremely unusual calendar with a 1st column of Monday instead of Sunday. Your artist Ignacio Triana may want to attend one of your refresher courses before his next paycheck.
It's interesting to look at religion through the "what is in here because it's good for us" lens. You can see plenty that is, in hindsight, quite clearly how you would give medical advice to people who don't understand medicine. I recently looked into Jewish Kosher rules and a lot of the rulings regarding which animals you can eat line up quite well with what food would be dangerous. Eg, no "unclean" animals like pigs, meat and dairy must be consumed separately (likely helped prevent people catching higher levels of infection from both infected meat and milk from the same animal), fish is always all clear (one of the safest meats in terms of disease), blood must be removed fully (helps prevent bloodborne disease spread), no eating "swarming winged things", aka, insects, which are often carrying diseases due to landing on fecal matter. It's a really clever way of getting people to live long and healthy without them needing to be smart and understand it. God says don't eat that, god says wash your hands, god says cough into your sleeve.
Thanks Dave! I was going to send this to my sister, but then it was a bit TOO honest to the point I'd feel bad sending it, lol. I think it's sometimes better for the person to leave them to their spiritual beliefs.
I used to have a friend who was very superstitious. We had to do all their rituals like spitting on your broom or throwing salt over your shoulder and everything. I cannot tell you how many times we turned around because a black cat crossed our path.
At the core of self-deception is the self and its desire to frame itself in a certain way. Supernatural beliefs provide that metaphysical framing for how people want to view themselves. This is why the "Buddha" said that while the truth is serene and pure, most will regard it as death. Because seeing truth for what it is upsets the superstitious framing within which an individual places themselves. Its not just about erroneously ascribing agency or clinging to habitual or cultural beliefs, it strikes right at the core of our metacognition. Buddhism and its followers provides a prime example; as Gautama himself did not want to be idolized and he claimed not to be Buddha but instead a Bodhisattva. His teachings have been reframed to portray a version of reality that strictly avoids the existential issues that Gautama related and allows its followers to feel like they will persist beyond death.
3:40 The hot hand fallacy isn't a fallacy in the same way the gamblers fallacy is, a person's shooting average is always changing and virtually unpredictable without any other knowledge, a person's performance actually can be and often *is* effected by past performance and being in a flow state or the opposite and thus "out of the game" can drastically effect ones performance on a game to game level, ironically the gamblers fallacy does still apply here, but if they have a 'hot hand' they may actually do better simply because they are precieced to be doing better and thus gaining confidence and thus doing better, or if they have a different disposition they may get too self critical and 'in their head' and mess up because their over-thinking may lead to breaking them out of a flow state. On a long enough timeline yes you can get an average, especially for a professional player, but unlike a roulette wheel that has no conscious awareness of itself or any influence on the game, a player does, thus their mind state and performance can be effected by past events
I own a bracelet made out of lapis lazuli that I use to “direct my anxiety” into. The “belief” that It’s absorbing my anxious feelings actually tricks my brain into calming down.
Brains are weird, man.
Yep, the placebo effect in practice, where the brain believes it's being healed or helped so it releases those good ole happy chemicals and makes you feel better. Fascinating subject
placebo is soo interesting, you guys should check out vsauce's experiment about it, prettyy cool
Placebo can be a remarkably powerful.
yeahhh fr brain releases them chemicals makes you feel good, reduces pain incase of an injury but the underlying pathology is still growing
God works in mysterious, just kidding.
I used to think karma was real. Going through my divorce I was taking some solace in that karma would eventually catch up with her and my ex friend. Well once I started being more rational after the emotional hurt, I realized there is no cosmic force of justice, just that people who exhibit a certain behavior time and again and never facing the consequences because someone was always there to support them wont be there and it will eventually be their undoing. Now I just smile and reply with the dismissive K when I get messages from her. Thanks human nature!
that sucks
I used to think god was real... I had severe doubts 15 years ago and then dumped the belief entirely 10 years ago. Also because of "her".
What you sow is what you get, is this even something to believe?
@@rickkwitkoski1976You somehow knew this guy's wife?😲
😉
Divorce sucks ass. But you’re right, at least people who treat others like garbage are more likely to face negative consequences. It’s when they don’t face consequences that makes things really annoying. 2 of the worst people I’ve ever met in my life are probably still scamming people for money to buy shoes and clothes. The funny thing is that they’re doing all of this while being members of a religious cult I use to be in…
It's very disconserting that even as adults, some people only behave ethically if they believe someone is watching them
This is why religious people wonder how non religious people could possibly have morality because we don’t believe we’re being watched. Which is essentially admitting that they are only moral because they think they’re being watched. Though I do believe they would be moral without their religion, since many Xtians when pressed will admit that they believe their god has done and condoned things that they themselves find immoral.
The walls are watching. I have imanginary friends. They are simply more me. There is not enough space inside of myself, so therefore the walls are watching.
Science and math is one of the foundations that helps me psychologically. When I used to believe in karma or some kind of divine punishment, I would really internalize it as some kind of consequence I deserved. When I started to push back against that tendency and neutralize things (that a lot of things weren’t personal or some higher being wasn’t punishing me), I started to feel okay again and be able to actually cope with the uncertainty of life.
This needs to be higher!!! Totally with you on this!
Agree
I don't understand how you can stop to believe in karma? It doesn't teach punishment. Karma speaks about the process of probabilities in actions. It's about bettering yourself as a human being so that you can be reborn into the next realm (Good Karma will have you be reborn as a god, bad Karma will have you be reborn as an animal). There is no punishment involved because Karma is a dynamic & cyclical concept. If you were to live the worst possible life imaginable (murder, rape, et cetera) you would find yourself reborn in one of the many Hells were your body would be cleansed by Enma so that you can be reborn from a clean slate and start the cycling of collecting Karma once again. This is what is meant by Samsara. Essentially, Karma & the rebirth is an allegory of life. Create good actions and the chances of good things happening will increase, and vice versa.
I would all together just stop treating religious ideas as something one can belief in, and instead just treat them as stories meant to be interpreted. That's what they were meant to be originally, concepts to be analyzed and thought about and not just blindly followed. The thousand arm buddha (Kan'non) represents the complexity of "truth" through having an eye in each of her endless palms, seeing endless perceptions of reality.
@@dydx_ stop. please stop. I know what the concept of karma is. The problem is the overlap of "getting what you deserve" that underlies this focus on punishment is from christian religion. There's a healthy interpretation of karma being that there's a sort of virtuous spiral because acts of compassion beget acts of compassion. And that's the same with unkind acts. That being said, having the neutrality of the concept that it's about how behavior has impacts makes things a lot more honest because you're not behaving in a way that you believe will come back in a good way for your own benefit, you're understanding that compassion and kindness is something you want to do regardless of if it comes back around to benefit you because you know that's not necessarily going to happen. And you also understand that if something bad does happen, that it's not because you're some bad person, absolutely just a random cause of events and that's okay.
@@Sarah-re7cg We know stuff that happens in life is random. Its not rocket science. The thing is, why don't we see it in the perspective of karma? That way we would be morally bound to do good in the hopes that bad things won't happen to us.
When we are born we are basically hard-wired to assume all our surroundings and events that occur in it are arranged for us, because it facilitates us being taught about the world by our parents. When you're a baby the things moving around about you are typically your parents and other adults, and they're usually doing something with a purpose that aids your survival. You come with a built-in instinct to try to find out what they're doing. This instinct never turns off, it stays with you for the rest of your life. That's why you "feel" like there's some sort of intent behind everything: having this instinct helped facilitate person-to-person learning in your infancy and childhood.
The intentional stance seems hard-wired.
This is some very hardly contrived rationalization LMFAO.
You stepped down to some freudian level of fucking your mom bullshit. Correlation is not equal to causation. When you wish to dabble with psychology, you can not allow yourself to generalize to such an extent.
Factually speaking: The "intent" thing most likely comes from Christianity. It is definitely not "hard-wired" into us. You can see this when you look at nations like India and people before the emergence of Christianity. This "intent" thing is Christian/Muslim (Historically the, Catholic Church united war-torn Europe at the time through spreading the idea that one EXISTS BECAUSE GOD does you HAVE TO LIVE TO SERVE GOD. This is how they gained power because the Church is the place people have to go to to learn and live according to the words of their gods. If you teach people that they were created on purpose through a omnipotent sentient deity, it leads them to ask why this all-powerful deity has chosen to create them with all the suffering in life. You should research this, I think it would be of benefit for you to understand how faith shapes your perception of reality even if you choose to not believe in it).
Anecdotal: I rarely have encountered someone here in Japan believing that there is a reason for why we are nor one who really cares or wants to know; we just kinda are and that's it.
The meaning of life, and why we exist is a topic that comes up in plenty of literature. Usually the reason for why we are is a reason that we need to discover for ourselves. If you ever wondered why so many (In relation to the rest of the world) take their craft more serious then the functionality of the creation or the health of our bodies sacrificed in pursuit of our craft, this is one of the factors together with collectivism & shinto. There is no concept for "needing to know why we have to exist", people who speak about this are treated like outcasts, you do not need to know what serves no purpose. As such moral relativism is at the heart of this culture.
You can see the lack of needing to know why we exist when looking at ancient Greek mythology too (In case you need some more "western" example). There is no real myth about why humans exist. The only myth there is is the creation, At first there is Chaos alone. Chronos cuts off the Penis from Uranus when he tried having sex with Gaia. This only tells the origin of life, but does not given an intent. There were some outliers, primarily in the mystery religions such as Orphism which believed in salvation from suffering through discarding the Titan blood thus purifying one's divine soul of Dionysus (The approach comes from believing humanity is born out of the ashes from titans and Dionysus after the battle of the gods.)
If you look outside your western borders you might realize that most cultures live without this weird obsession, and the cultures that speak of intent are usually the ones with mainly Abrahamic origins or majority of faith. Others (like indians) intent is simply a poetic description on how to get along with others according to their household deity. The only real constant I can think off is the constant of suffering, which to me speaks more about people who never were taught about how to process pain/suffering properly. Strong negative emotions tend to be what most people who turn religious at an older age seem to have in common, though I lack data to corroborate.
IMO, that is a much better hypothesis for the human bias towards assigning agency than the "lion in the bush" story. Humans are very reliant on learning, especially social learning.
Isn't quantum physics a science?
The observer can affect the outcome.
@@hamishanderson6738 Maybe doesn't mean quite what you think it means... Physicists love using common words in peculiar ways ;)
An 'observer' is just any measuring device, not just someone/something conscious.
Better wording is probably: It is impossible to measure a property of something without affecting some other property of it.
The Skinner Box experiments show even other animals (like pigeons and rats) will develop superstitious behaviours if given a reward food after random lengths of times in an enclosed box. The animal tends to repeat its sequence of behaviours that occur most closely in time to when the reward was given. After numerous repeats of this random reward giving, the animal's behaviors can become quite elaborate/complex as it tries to trigger the reward by going further and further back in it previous acts list. Quite intriguing really.
You should see it play out in a baseball dugout. Rally caps, inside out socks, unwashed uniforms, crazy pregame meals…
The OP in specific reminded me of cargo cults.
Thanks Dave, very good summary. I do take exception to the 'hot hand' analogy because of the added complexity of the psychology of athletic performance. Being in "the zone" is a real thing.
Being in the zone may increase your chances but it doesn't guarantee success. (mr obvious here)
Yeah the analogies weren't perfect (like the socks, they could help you focus in some obscure way) but they're still pretty good.
if you actually watch the whole video he mentions what you people are saying.
not only that but if you're taking repeated shots at the same target you can figure out the right force and direction to push the ball in after repeated trials (so the instances of the event are not independent)
Even if the events are independent, the correlation may still be causally derived, since they may have increased performance temporarily due to external factors that are causally linked (ie they had a good routine that day, slept well, are happy, are fit and energised), so even if you don't *necessarily* conclude anything from the samples, at least some part of the sample is a determinant in the future outcomes (in short, the "50% average" of the player is only correct between days, not within a single day)
Every day, Professor Dave, you release another video that I can simply share instead of explaining the specifics of my beliefs and nonbeliefs. it is kinda scary how well and accurately you explain everything I want to say. I love your videos and have been watching you for years. I recently started university and you have been of great help as well. thank you so much, for everything.
I struggle with anger a lot and keep a Hematite Ring on a chain around my neck, when I start feeling myself get angry I take the ring off the chain and wear it. I genuinely feel myself get calmer when I have the ring with me, and especially when I'm wearing it.
I know deep down it is a placebo, and the ring itself isn't doing anything to improve my mood, but it's better than just being angry all the time which makes me miserable.
It’s hard to escape the way your brain was wired to be, so it’s not surprising that it still works.
@@spacix4118 We were wired this way so that we could not be stupid, because many people would stay stupid with "logic" which is really just illogical nonsense originating from depreaved parts of the brain that are hungry for obtaining illogical stuff inexchange for being callibrated back to normal.
The whole 50% chance of red or black thing always confuses a lot of people.
That's the thing, like you said, about some superstitious beliefs. The "certainty" that some "lucky" object or ritual will boost your abilities can so easily trick you into actually doing better just from doing the act or wearing the item that it's JUST like the placebo effect. And _that_ is a real thing which does help heal people, so why shouldn't the extra mental/emotional boost from the lucky thing help in the same way?
Thanks for what you do, Professor Dave!
❤️❤️
That's why i usually take a bomb with me on a plane trip since the probability of there being two bombs on the same plane is very small.
It's why I always take 2 bombs with me on a plane. The odds of there being 3 are even more miniscule...
@@Winasaurus It's why I carry 59 knifes with me on a plane, the same number of passengers on the plane. The odds of there being 60 knifes are 1 in 60...
I like Shermer's explanation for why humans assign agency to seemingly random patterns: There is little natural selection against making type 2 errors (belief that the rustling in the grass is a predator when it's really just the wind) but a large selection against making type 1 errors (belief that the rustling is just the wind when it's really a predator). Over generations, this selects for assigning agency to the randomness around us.
I use this psychology to my advantage. Sometimes my day doesn't begin well - some misfortune, things don't go as I want. Then I limit myself to routine stuff for the rest of the day (or half a day). No hard decisions that require thinking, no difficult chores, no new initiatives - until good luck returns. At worst next day things are normal again.
The explanation is simple of course. Adversity causes frustration, which results in inferior assessments. Good luck cheers me up, makes me optimistic again. That demonstrably improves whatever I want to do.
Fantastic video Dave! I'd also like to add that religion and superstitions can act as placebos. When we're under duress we reach out to our intangible lifelines for assistance. It's fascinating to me that you can find much more strength than you thought you had when you believe you're not the one at the wheel.
Professor Dave mentioned this as a final concession in the video.
This. People shit on religion so much that they forget that it's not meant to be taken for word. It's simply an intangible construct which we seek to help us out during distress.
Great video. I could not find fault with it. I would only add that trauma, abuse and neglect feed all aspects these affects. They increase the mental and emotional identification with superstition and religion. The recovery from trauma, abuse and neglect causes you to understand the affects you describe so well.
I haven't looked on your channel for a little while and I have to point out how much the visualisation in your videos has improved over this short time period. Do you draw or animate all this stuff all by yourself? If so, huge props to you and if not, huge props to the person or the people doing so. This looks phenomenal
I'm pretty sure they're stock graphics, the style is pretty inconsistent, but it still is definitely an improvement.
credits in the description
Oopsie, you might want to check out his calendar at 0:13 in this video. See whether you can find as many errors as I did.
In VERY special cases, small numbers can be expected to act like large numbers. But, for the purposes of this video, your statement on the Law of Small Numbers is absolutely correct.
"It is not the aim of science to open a door to infinite wisdom, but to set a limit to infinite error."
-Bertold Brecht
I imagine some who watch this video might take offense to your ACCURATE conflation of silly superstitions with their religious worldview, cognitively speaking. The more we as a society learn about how the world, civilizations, and our own minds work, the better off everyone will be…including the planet itself.
This isn’t hard to argue. What’s hard is convincing the faithful to keep their superstitious beliefs out of our political discourse, since our laws concern us ALL.
Great summation of how these beliefs operate in the human mind!
another thing that is weird is how our brains are responsible for pain. We can injure ourselves and not even realize it or deliberately defer the pain by controlling our mind
I think a quick rundown of the Skinner Box experiment would have been useful, where pigeons got seed at regular timed intervals independently of whatever the birds were doing at the time. Whatever action they happened to be doing when the seed dropped (cooing, strutting, bobbing their head, etc.) they kept doing whenever they were hungry because they came to associate that action as the cause for the food to appear.
It's been done with humans as well in the form of dollar bills dispensing from a machine every 30 seconds in a room full of dummy levers, buttons, and switches. The money dispensed every 30 seconds no matter what the participant did but almost none of them realized this. The vast majority kept doing whatever action or sequence of actions they happened to be doing when first bill got dispensed. Education levels didn't seem to matter.
The desire to link correlation with causation (even without any justifiable reason) is something brains seem very much designed to do.
I think that study can just as easily mean that people can be tricked and misdirected if you make a situation look like a different situation, and that the flow of time is subjective. Without counting, how easily will you know something comes in exactly 30-second intervals? n
Now imagine you're in a new situation and there's a bunch of random levers. Just an alternative reading, psychological studies are very up to interpretation.
@@Shoobster the point though was that most participants were extremely confident that their actions dictated when the money was dispensed even though there was no logical reason to believe this. It speaks loudly to how hard our brains try to link correlation to causation even when there is no reason to do so, and thus superstition is created.
@@Shoobster yes, i doubt I would have had the precise timing of 30 seconds down, but I do think most people would have figured it out much sooner if there weren't buttons, levers, and switches (the illusion of agency). it's those inert devices (which stand in place of rituals, religions, superstitions, etc.) that cause a false sense of agency of pre-determined outcomes
I think the "Hot hand" superstition might be the only one with a slight sense of truth, as basketball is way more complicated than shots made the exact same way, when a player goes on a "hot streak" it could be because the player is more relaxed than usual, the defense of the other team is failing or even because the player is in "the zone".
Hot streaks also tend to put a lot of pressure on the other team, so a professional athlete given more space due to the pressure the other team feels can perform better, creating a self-sufficient cycle.
True, but with all sporting events, any player or team can go on a statistically plausible winning or losing streak. These can then be exacerbated by an increase or decrease of confidence. It's important that the statistical probabilities are understood.
You provoke the rare feeling of being upset that a video ends. You bring further insight to my world. Thank you, Professor Dave.
Nicely done. I couldn't help but look back at your Quantum Mysticism debunk as it was playing and noting the overlap in the content.
I've noticed the quality of your videos has drastically improved from a year or two ago! I really like the animations!
When I was about 7-8 my parents ended up getting me a dream catcher, I forget exactly why they did but what I do remember is after hearing the explanation of how it supposedly worked and hanging it in my room, I stopped having nightmares as often as I did before. Nowadays I know that it's just an object with no magical/metaphysical properties but I still keep it around because I formed that subconscious link of "if I have this object close by when I sleep then I won't have bad dreams".
The last part of this video is so interesting and provides an additional perspective on religion in society. I think it’s functionality is a product of a form of maintaining power and preserving a political and social structure. I was trying to think of why it’s still so prominent in society today and found that it provides community and a sense of safety for a lot of people which are part of the human condition. The watchful eye idea and it facilitating cooperation is chefs kiss 💋
Actually, religion has often absolutely destroyed the political structure. I am a Zoroastrian, and that is how my religion started. I consider my religion to complement my Marxism.
@Chris Paul I think you have the very wrong idea about atheists and agnostics. I was raised Catholic and broke off from it coming of age. This comment "God will show you the absolute truth if you desire it and leave your arrogance at the door." is the definition of arrogance. We are humans. We don't know what we do not know and I find it to be a new order of arrogance when humans try to tell me what God is and is not and especially what is means to have a relationship with said higher being. You don't own this concept. Man, human whatever does not own this concept. Belief in the concept of a higher being is one thing, belief in a christian god is another. This video isn't some kind of "debunking" of the concept of a higher being itself, it's about the secular roles tainted by human who utilize religion as a weapon and psychological fallback for comfort and control and order. All I have to say is don't tell me who God is and what a relationship with this being looks like because if that's what you think it is, good for you but you don't own it as a concept.
@Chris Paul you just gave an account of a psychological benefit of religion in your life lol what? Also, giving one counter example of religion having a negative effect on psychological health doesn’t knock down the argument of psychological benefit lol okay, that’s nice you’re sharing that with me, it’s actually a supporting example of what I said in the first place. What I said isn’t a straw man, but ironically after you made that claim you yourself made a straw man. 🤦🏻♀️ no, I’m not insinuating that at all.
@Chris Paul ??? I’m not an atheist lol I’m agnostic. No, I think you’re the only one…why would that in any way be ironic? Also, again, your entire story you shared, you’re talking about how faith helped you through a really emotional and challenging time. Okay, it’s not going out on a limb to say that religion has been a great psychological benefit to you. I don’t understand why you commented in the first place because your comment supported my original comment anyways. You just seem like someone is threatening your faith now or something. This video doesn’t take anything away from the concept of god and the existence of a higher being. It’s talking about the sociological and psychological implications of organized religion.
A nurse I know insists that things are crazy at work during a full moon. Thanks to confirmation bias, she forgets strange things that happen during other phases and the mundane nights during a full moon.
To be fair to her, she's a nurse so probably every night is crazy to some degree
I worked at a youth correctional facility. Crazy things happened all the time. There would always be an increase around a full moon. Was never something I thought to be true until experienced first hand.
@@SgtD85 Likely specially due to the stories around it leads people to act out more then rather than causing it though.
@@thunderspark1536 you honestly think there are people who are like ooooooh full moon time to act the crazy?
@@SgtD85 My man, there are people who eat tide pods. You underestimate the stupidity of humanity if you think people wouldn't act out just cause "haha funny full moon"
The more I hear this guy, the more I love him ❣️
This video has to be translated to many languages, it will help many countries where people are still blinded to superstition to wake up.
Looking forward to seeing you on the line, keep up the great content👍
Sports gets weird though because mood, attitude, and competition etc all play a part in “hot hand”. There is an emotional and physical aspect that makes it fundamentally different from the roulette example
Another aspect of agency is personification vs. the genetic advantage of being able to "read" other people in social situations.
For example, it benefits us to know that someone in our social group is angry, and that ability carried over into the natural world as per your "agency" comment. If an ancient human saw that there was a big storm on the water, and taking a boat out would be a bad idea... they might say "the sea is angry today". Applying a human characteristic to the event helps explain it and make sense of it.
Once you go down that path, you end up with the god Poseidon, the goddess Ganga, or other gods/spirits.
Hot Hands could be a real thing sometimes. Humans are so complex that skill at a task may be sensitive to your level of confidence, nutrition, hydration, calmness, how well you slept last night, and more. So many factors, but summarise by saying you have 'luck'. When you have Hot Hands, you may indeed have increased skill, or it could just be dumb chance, but you might as well go with it at the time.
Damn, I'm loving the animations. Just don't get rid of PDE classics like Facepalm Girl, Angry Troll Boy, and Preacher Dude at the pulpit.
The debunk classics
Interesting stuff here! I'd like to add a story about how the belief in agency combined with mental perception affected me. I noticed a blur in front of my motorcycle once, and after I was able to discern it was a deer, I then went to apply my brakes only to find that I'd already done so. Even though I know that my subconscious acted on incomplete information to apply the brakes, nothing magical, it still feels like an outside entity had acted. This helped me understand how people may have accepted belief in guardian angels, kami or deities, or magic objects.
baffles me how you haven't grown ten folds you do such variety of unique content with eloquent speech, cool professor, stay happy hehe
I love dave's content on psychology.
Your video raised an interesting point about the human tendency to find patterns in randomness, leading to beliefs in superstitions and the supernatural. We often overattribute agency and create elaborate causal theories to explain random events. The examples of the Gambler's Fallacy and the Hot Hand Fallacy illustrate how we get tricked by the law of small numbers. This video does not delve into the validity of superstitious beliefs or the existence of ghosts. Instead, it explores the science behind why we, as humans, are drawn to these beliefs.
Correct. Dave told that in the beginning of the video.
because there obviously is no scientific basis for any superstitious beliefs or ghost
You just repeated was said in the video. Why?
Are you a bot?
Is this an Ai?
Problem with superstition is that it's all regional. And the more you learn about different superstitions, you have to follow all of them. Now if I consider all the different superstitions I've heard from different places, I want to stop something I said from happening, I'll have to touch wood, knock on wood, touch grass, touch green, spit, or throw some food items. It's so tiring.
You're awesome! keep up the great work, I keep sending these videos to my students in case a related topic pops up in class.
I pretty much agree with TJump, that everything is set in motion and there's no way to displace what will occur. But that doesn't give me much solace as my life is falling apart. Maybe a brief respite here and there, but the inescapable anxiety always comes back. I grew up Jehovahs Witness and we didnt buy into the mainstream "accept Jesus' throbbing, pulsating love deep inside you to feel better" mantra, and after I quit that cult 26 years ago I never bought into it, but I find it fascinating how people can represent themselves as happy and well-adjusted because a magical dude in the sky tells them they can be so.
Your videos deserve millions of views like kurgzegat (in a nutshell)
“Hot hand” in basketball doesn’t work the way you describe it, in my opinion. One shot is not independent from the ones taken shortly before and after. Confidence plays a huge role in the streak, gaining confidence after making shots, losing it after missing them. Some players are more or less influenced by this psyche. Truly great shooters have shooter’s amnesia, which means they are highly confident (arguably delusion) of their chances of making a shot regardless of the outcome of previous shots.
I can heavily recommend the book titled "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman as an introducition to decision making, including most of the biases mentioned in the video.
Fantastic amalgamation of the ideas through an effective sequential array and presentation Professor Dave💐
It only makes sense to me that our ancient ancestors believed in the supernatural. Since the scientific method hadn't yet been discovered, it meant believing that wind had its own intentions, or that the exploding volcano was angry about something. If a river tore through your village and flooded it, it was because someone had done something to piss it off, or hadn't made the proper sacrifices, etc. Eventually these things became seen as gods and goddesses, whom people needed to please through rituals, sacrifice, etc.
Keep up the good work, a pleasure to watch your content.
For anyone interested, I recommend looking into Skinner's Pigeon experiment, in which he observed possible superstitious behaviors of pigeons in between feedings
My confirmation bias really liked this video!
"It must've been the wind" -Most Aware Skyrim Guard
For the knock on wood, we also use it to further communicate that we really don't want something to happen.
Oh look, the exact same video I wanted to make for several years but I don't know how to phrase any of this without offending 99% of humanity. Well done, as always.
This is such a fascinating area of research for me. I highly recommend The Hidden Brain podcast and book Useful Delusions: the power and paradox of the self deceiving mind
I very recently gave myself a great lesson on mindset and confirmation bias. I was driving with my wife on a motorway (in the UK) and noticed a car with the letters ZZ in the number plate. Now I always thought that the letter Z in UK registrations was reserved for special vehicles (specialist imports, kit cars etc) so was quite surprised to see this and then of course as we continued our journey it seemed like every other vehicle had the letter Z in the registration plate including 2 vehicles belonging to near neighbours which I'd never noticed before!
I love all your videos. Just brilliant how you explain things. Really enjoy learning from you. Thank you for what you do! Awesome 🤩
The power of belief. Simply the act of believing in something causes real effects on one's life.
You literally just described the Placebo Effect, one of the main arguments AGAINST the supernatural
@@BernardoPGHave you ever considered why the Placebo Effect even works to begin with?
@@OGreenWorId ???
Do you know what the placebo effect is?
If Im in pain, and I take somethin that I THINK relieves the pain, my brain will reward that action with dopamine which IS a painkiller.
But I havent actually treated anything.
When that dopamine wears off, the problem will still be there
I was raised supernatural in a Pentecostal atmospher
It never took as soon as I was 16 I left and was allowed to think my own thoughts
I read every religious ‘holy’ book many times and became terrified at the stupidity and horror and obvious BS
Natural was super and now it’s almost dead
I’m a Horticulturist and things ain’t growing right for years but getting worse fast
Beware inverted day/night temps…warmer nights halts crop producing they stop only after 2 warmer nights
Happened in NW GA locally…mine did not start back and farmers market had slim pickings 2021
Transcranial magnetic stimulation is my favorite demonstration. I bring it up whenever someone mentions "near death" experiences. Oh sure, messing with brain chemistry is extra special when your heart stops but not when you strap a magnet to your head. Death has poetic weight. Electrical signals malfunctions don't.
Respectfully done. Hopefully it broadens the minds of people otherwise closed to natural explanations for these behaviors.
I wonder what you think of "The Gospel of Afranius", the debunking of the resurrection of Jesus?
@@valinorean4816 I haven't read that, so I'm unable to give my thoughts. However, there is no need to debunk resurrection stories; they debunk themselves by proposing that the laws of physics have been suspended.
@@spectreskeptic3493 The problem is that this is not a convincing reply for a believer, who thinks that with God everything is possible and all that - whereas that work actually makes them silent, in my experience! But don't take my word for it - do you know someone religious who you debated a lot, were frustrated with, etc? Send it to them and watch their reaction! (you can find it in Wikipedia, for example)
@@valinorean4816 Okay, I'll have a look and let you know my thoughts.
@@valinorean4816 I read the wiki and looks interesting. I've heard apologists dismiss these kinds of "alternative" explanations and insist the Bible is inerrant and therefore the miraculous accounts must be true. However, I'm intrigued, so I've added it to my book list. Thanks.
I have a friend who suddenly needed space after I told her I had a rough night of sleep at her place (I had a "hag" dream and probably a bit of apnea). She recently (within the last year) got deep into spirituality, and put a spell on her apartment to protect her from people who had negative intentions for her. Ergo she assumed immediately that I had negative intentions for her and she was now uncomfortable with me being in her house.
I'm concerned she's over relying on spirituality and it's closing her from the truth that I was just asleep one l in an emotional state and dealing with some apnea.
Thank you for another wonderful vid, Dave. Always grounded in rationality.
I don't know if it's the way you explain things or what but since starting to watch you over the past few months I am actually starting to notice I'm understanding allot more of the terminology you use. And understand what I thought to be complex things alot easier.might I add I failed bad in school but kept trying to self teach after I left
Well done. Keep it up. ☘️☘️☘️
Eh, idk about the basketball example, I know we're applying a 50% shooting average to the player, but in a real world scenario there are both physical and psychological reasons that a person who made 7 shots in row would be more like to make another one rather than it being a 50/50 chance. For one they would have more direct and recent experience than usual with the force and angle of an accurate shot and they would probably be more confident due to previous success which could make it easier for them to process that information.
Superstition in birds has also been documented. In randomized training and reward programs, where the actions and rewards were uncoupled, pigeons would come to wrongly associate certain behaviors with outcomes. Guilt by association, not causation. Basically, what ever random activity they were doing when a reward appeared, they would engage in that even when there was no statistical correlation. They would even pass that behavior to others, even when it did not reliably generate the desired outcome. Sound familiar?
That isn’t really superstition though, because it actually worked.
Here's a classic one: Never say the word "quiet" working in a shop. You will be flooded with more customers than you can handle.
It’s also a superstition in the hospital
I've worked a lot of labor jobs and dudes who work outside are the same way about saying "wind" outloud
@@spacix4118 I work in community pharmacy. I have observed the customers do arrive in waves, so I theorise that it probably has more to do with the bus times.
While you can say "there's no clear meaning to life," I personally think different. I think it's quite clear what the meaning of life is. It's just that nobody really wants to acknowledge it. The meaning of life, the universe and everything isn't 42. It's simply the spread of information. Whether that information is physical or metaphysical in nature.
Another reason why religion has been perpetuated by certain agents is because of the authority that it bestows onto those who know how to wield it. For instance, if you are the exclusive medium of communication for the most powerfull entity in the universe, then that makes you the second most powerfull entity in the universe (provided people believe it). So of the population of people making prophecies, some sample will get it right, and in absence of any better explanation (like science), people will believe they are prophets, which gives them alot of power and influence.
yeahms the comfort of saying that you know is so good that it's dangerous. if you wanna be sure of something just say that you ''don't know'', can be better for you
I'll have to disagree with the basketball hot hand analogy. Anyone who plays sports knows that when you're in the zone, you can almost do no wrong, and when you're out of the zone everything feels hard.
If a basketball player is having one of those days where everything comes together perfectly, they are no longer shooting based upon a lifetime average, they are having a moment. Which means there next shot is more likely to be successful than not. This is not only because they're in an incredible groove and completely in the zone, it's also because of the rhythm and the learning curve in that particular moment. Every successful shot you make increases your chances of having another one. Particularly when they come close together.
In surfing we all notice this. One of your friends will just be having the perfect day. They are always in the right spot. They're surfing well above historical averages. And then another person is just in the wrong place every time, paddles for the wrong way, and their surfing is stiff. Well below their historical averages.
This is because there are so many factors that go into having a great session. Your mental state. How quickly you get your first good ride. Who else is in the water at the time. How you feel physically and how often your next wave comes after your previous wave.
When everything is in alignment, everyone notices.
As a former Christian I can confirm the teaching on this video.
What do you think of "The Gospel of Afranius", the debunking of the resurrection of Jesus?
Good luck, Dave
If people often require fear of oversight or retribution to behave, it hints how religion actually has wisdom in it, regardless whether the idea of "godz" is incorrect...
Loved the video!
That conclusion was unexpected but really nice!
Thanks for all the effort you put into educating people.
Love the content and pacing of the video professor Dave. Thanks for the truth :)
This is great, i had actually wondered in the past if you could slightly cheat rng by predicting based on probability. I.E. Always choosing the lower total when flipping a coin, or a default if its even. So for example you are at 7 heads and 3 tails, you choose tails because in order to regress towards the mean, you are expecting more tails than heads at that moment. I wrote a small program where i could choose heads or tails and a small coin flip animation would play and then increment counts of heads, tails, and my correct guesses. I ran 3 copies for 100 ish rolls each, heads only and tails only both were close to 50%, while the strategy was closer to 60%. This felt very cool. I just now wrote a different function that does that same strategy automatically, and ran it on 1,000,000 samples, and the pass result was essentially 50%. I felt like i had made a mistake, so i kept playing around with it. Making it only guess heads, or use the strategy, and no matter what at a high sample size, it matched 50%. I was confused a bit, and started only running individual groups of 10. I found that only guessing heads was very inconsistent as expected on such a small sample size, anywhere from 1/10 to 9/10 guesses. Which isn't surprising. However, when i ran only 10 at a time using the strategy, it definitely felt closer to 60% and in a good chunk of rolls it didn't ever go under 40% accuracy, while getting as high as 90% occasionally.
This is a very interesting find to me, and I'm not sure how to interpret the data. I had thought I found a way to perform ever so slightly better by meta analysis on independent random chances, but once you escape a small scale, without fail, there is no difference. And now I only have to wonder, in the dozens of groups of 10 or my groups of 100, which seemed to have a pattern, am i still just seeing things? Wanting there to be strategy to randomness? Is there really a meta strategy that only works with a low sample count? Or is it still just that even here the amount of tests are too small to make judgements.
I knew going in it was almost certainly not going to work, and yet still felt i had cheated the system when i started seeing non 50% results. The brain really really wants to see patterns, and it can not only lead to superstition, but manipulate how we interpret raw data. Numbers do not lie, objective data is always objective. But how our minds use that objective data isnt quite as rigid, and its very easy to be tricked even if you have a strong grasp on the concepts. There's a reason that even very smart people can succumb to superstitious or wishful thinking, its just something that creeps in on us. You don't need to be stupid to believe silly things, you just need the right set of circumstances to sufficiently convince your bias.
In terms of the golf study mentioned near the end, I don't think confidence is necessarily the best explanation.
A good performance outwardly on a task tends to imply that the inner-process has gone smoothly.
It may be the certain things like wearing a lucky charm or scratching a part of the arm or whatever result in better performance because of 'memory' and state-of-mind.
It seems fairly plausible that the seemingly random superstitious behavior acts as a pneumonic to remind the brain how to enter a state of peak performance.
One common practice within supernatural belief systems is meditation, which is often associated with tapping into a "higher source" by 'silencing' the physical body. Since no longer believing in anything supernatural, I've contemplated the benefits of meditation and personally see them more as result of "focusing on nothing/nothingness" as opposed to visualizing some order through a mystical force. Reminding myself "Everything is simply here, existing, and I'm okay with that", can be very relieving when life gets crazy. This can also ease the fear of death in a way, helping you to keep in mind that, while it is scary for the brain to process the occurrence, it's a natural part of biology, and you'll just return to the state you were in prior to being alive.
Death doesn’t scare me since it’s like being asleep, but pain that typically comes before it is another story lol
@@Pancakegr8 Yeah, makes perfect sense, haha
Nicely put
@@Pancakegr8 personally I don't like the idea of my entire consciousness ceasing to exist...
I'm not entirely sure if I'd rather an eternity of torture so long as I get to exist forever, but my bias is heavily in favour of staying existent.
(so if I'm being consistent, the pain that usually precedes death is not so much the concern as it is death itself)
@@Pancakegr8 clarifying further, I would say that why I do not fear sleep compared to death is
1. I am still in some sense conscious while asleep, just delerious
2. I am sure to regain my normal state of consciousness eventually (so all I have lost is time, not myself)
The only problem I have with the hot hands fallacy is that it assumes that basketball shots are independent and uncorrelated events, like dice rolls. But certainly if a basketball player is playing with an injury they are likely to sink fewer shots than their lifetime average. Likewise, I think it is possible that a player feeling good could sink more shots than average, though I haven't seen any studies about this. If the opposing defense is weak, ditto. But this has to do with physiology, not probability.
Now I better understand why is superstition so common in wonderful people. I think that in religion someone wants me to follow a rule, and out of religion sometimes I would like an object (inanimated or not), follow my rules. Thank you!
I've been told that I should not pluck any white hairs, or they will come in faster. I counter that my white hairs will multiple as I age regardless of whether I pluck them.
I never had a name for it, but the gambler's fallacy is real. I try to explain to people how statistically, when "gambling" (its a video game) that they are just as likely to obtain that rare item on back-to-back tries versus on try 31 and 78, for example. Though even with my background in statistics as a student, it is still fun to try for the "back-to-back" since the joy of getting so lucky is worth the extra few minutes of our time.
I just wanted something that would explain the out-of-body experiences I had some years ago. No I don't use drugs or anything like that. Once I was just laying down, then sat up and saw myself on the bed I was laying and returned to my body desperately. I wasn't dreaming because it was early and I was literally in the middle of a conversation...
It's a shame that Ritual is often tied into supernatural beliefs. Knocking on Wood won't alter your luck, meditation isn't aligning your chakra, and the dead won't hear your eulogy. But they can be calming, offering focus, or a way to punctuate important events and that's more than enough.
6:50 I've had so many arguments with people about "the full moon causing crazy days". It's infuriating. I'll point out "hey nothing bad happened" and they'll just say "not yet" or if something even a little bad happens, say with grumpy customers, they will instantly say "must be the full moon".
The moon is always there stupid. It doesn't actually change shape and size that's just the shadow of the earth ughh
it’s not actually the shadow of the earth it’s just the bit of the moon not in the suns light
@@westernbrumby what's blocking the sun's light 🤔
@@Froggsroxx the moon itself
@@MagicGonads am I think of eclipses? I might be lmao. I misread that first response my bad. Regardless, the moon doesn't change size or shape it's just a shadow.
Thanks for this video, I've been struggling with this God thing, now I can begin to understand why I want to believe when I know logically it's not true. I'll research more into confirmation bias and the other principles you've mentioned here. My logical brain is happy again.
Great presentation. Thanks as always.
This video looks very well made,animation is great
Professor Dave, your Friday the 13th artwork shows Friday the 2nd, not the 13th (at 0:13 in the video, coincidentally!), and shows a month of 32 days (impossible), and uses an extremely unusual calendar with a 1st column of Monday instead of Sunday. Your artist Ignacio Triana may want to attend one of your refresher courses before his next paycheck.
bruh
You're a good teacher.
It's interesting to look at religion through the "what is in here because it's good for us" lens. You can see plenty that is, in hindsight, quite clearly how you would give medical advice to people who don't understand medicine. I recently looked into Jewish Kosher rules and a lot of the rulings regarding which animals you can eat line up quite well with what food would be dangerous. Eg, no "unclean" animals like pigs, meat and dairy must be consumed separately (likely helped prevent people catching higher levels of infection from both infected meat and milk from the same animal), fish is always all clear (one of the safest meats in terms of disease), blood must be removed fully (helps prevent bloodborne disease spread), no eating "swarming winged things", aka, insects, which are often carrying diseases due to landing on fecal matter. It's a really clever way of getting people to live long and healthy without them needing to be smart and understand it. God says don't eat that, god says wash your hands, god says cough into your sleeve.
2:14 suddenly i'm thinking of Kaiji Gambling Apocalypse/Ultimate Survivor! : D
Thanks Dave! I was going to send this to my sister, but then it was a bit TOO honest to the point I'd feel bad sending it, lol. I think it's sometimes better for the person to leave them to their spiritual beliefs.
i think your right,especially if their beliefs arent actually harming anyone
@@marsar1775 Applying the same heuristics/epistemology to other things can be harmful.
I used to have a friend who was very superstitious. We had to do all their rituals like spitting on your broom or throwing salt over your shoulder and everything. I cannot tell you how many times we turned around because a black cat crossed our path.
"Spitting on your broom" sounds like a euphemism
@@Loctorak Don't want to develop calluses! Wait, that doesn't help the euphemism...
Lol you have to spit on a broom if someone sweeps your feet.
Beautiful done Dave. Diamond!
This is brilliant. You said it best Dave.
At the core of self-deception is the self and its desire to frame itself in a certain way. Supernatural beliefs provide that metaphysical framing for how people want to view themselves. This is why the "Buddha" said that while the truth is serene and pure, most will regard it as death. Because seeing truth for what it is upsets the superstitious framing within which an individual places themselves. Its not just about erroneously ascribing agency or clinging to habitual or cultural beliefs, it strikes right at the core of our metacognition. Buddhism and its followers provides a prime example; as Gautama himself did not want to be idolized and he claimed not to be Buddha but instead a Bodhisattva. His teachings have been reframed to portray a version of reality that strictly avoids the existential issues that Gautama related and allows its followers to feel like they will persist beyond death.
I'd really like you to make a video on the 17 Hz tone experiment. It can debunk many of the mysteries regarding haunted places
3:40 The hot hand fallacy isn't a fallacy in the same way the gamblers fallacy is, a person's shooting average is always changing and virtually unpredictable without any other knowledge, a person's performance actually can be and often *is* effected by past performance and being in a flow state or the opposite and thus "out of the game" can drastically effect ones performance on a game to game level, ironically the gamblers fallacy does still apply here, but if they have a 'hot hand' they may actually do better simply because they are precieced to be doing better and thus gaining confidence and thus doing better, or if they have a different disposition they may get too self critical and 'in their head' and mess up because their over-thinking may lead to breaking them out of a flow state.
On a long enough timeline yes you can get an average, especially for a professional player, but unlike a roulette wheel that has no conscious awareness of itself or any influence on the game, a player does, thus their mind state and performance can be effected by past events