Bad Predictions From Twenty Years Ago
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- Опубліковано 8 чер 2024
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Back when I was a young lad, this magazine called Popular Mechanics posted a timeline for the next 20 years.
With such wacky predictions as “Halo 8” on smartphones and “anti matter” to travel to space it naturally left an impact on my soft skull, to a point where I still remember it today.
I imagine predicting the future is a difficult task, especially when it comes to technology, but at some point you gotta recognize that some predictions were simply bad.
And these were pretty bad.
So rather than wait a year to give them the benefit of the doubt, I’m gonna just make fun of them right now.
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Pass
Nope.
No thank you
❤❤
Can we talk about why Oh Canada was playing in the background?
There's a Black Ops 2 Map Based in Yemen in 2025 so i would'nt even be suprised if some of these show up this year
I've not seen you comment in ages
I wouldn’t be surprised if the plot of black ops 2 actually happens next year.
Wouldn't it be wild of all of the futuristic call of duties were just preparing us for stuff the government knew was going to go down within the next decade, and the games were actually commissioned and funded by them as well just to get people psychologically prepared for the devastation that's to come?
I'll go take my pill now @_@
Well there's been a civil war there for ever and every us president has sent troops there sense Bush jr, so not much of a prediction
We even had a Menendez type guy on the news
I know that prefab bridge bit at the end was probably just a throwaway joke, but last year, CT replaced 2 bridges on i95 by sorta doing that. They built the new bridge next to the old one and basically slid it into place. Idk how common that is but it does exists, sorta
Oh yeah, I saw something like that like 6 years ago
On the Ohio River they built a bridge next to where it was going to be installed and then moved it in one piece. Pretty cool to watch!
It's a very common way to build bridges, just not quite in the way that Popular Mechanics envisioned it would work.
The NatGeo show World's Toughest Fixes had an episode about replacing an interstate overpass years and years ago with this side-construction method. Sadly it's hard to find the show, anymore, but this has been around for a while.
Jumping on this comment to confirm that bridges (the spans at least) can be built to almost complete and put in place by sliding on track with low friction pads and then taking out the pads and track, or lifted and lowered into place with large trailers carrying additional equipment to reach the height of the bridge. How much work is needed to actually complete the job, idk, it probably varies.
I remember Focus magazine (a science and tech magazine) sharing predictions about the internet back in the late 90s/early 2000s. One I always remember was that they predicted you'd be able to make a digital copy of yourself that'd explore the iternet while you were away from your computer, and bring you stuff back when you returned.
That can be a way to describe algorithm that put posts/videos/ads in front of you?
ChatGPT can kinda do this, but not autonomously, yet
I love the logic that "digital clones will become a thing" was somehow the choice they made and not just "computers get small enough to take with you" when the trend for decades by that point was computers getting smaller and more portable
Webcrawlers, I guess
search algorithms are kinda that in a spooky, mass surveillance, monetized, involuntary way.
I remember in elementary school back in 2010 I read a lil booklet that said we’d had rotating space habitats by 2010. It was written in 1977
By 2023 we made enough antimater to... test that it actually does fall down and not up.
We're not going to use it to get to Alpha Centuri.
Something a lot of people already assumed anyway. Gravity is still gravity.
@@kylegonewild Yes. It was not a surprise. But you still need to check. Acollierastro has a great video on it.
@@kylegonewild Just because lots of people assumed that was the case doesn't make it true. One of the most important things about science is to test things even if you think you know the result.
@@kylegonewild Acollierastro has a really good video explaining how and why they tested it. Nobody was surprised by the result, but there is still tremendous value in checking.
Anti-matter is real?!
Designer drugs are absolutely a thing and have resulted in massive strides in disease treatment, the real problem is the authors significantly underestimating how many diseases there are and how complex each one is even with those extra tools
Surely the drugs just need to balance their humors. That can't be too hard, can it?
When I was a kid designer drugs meant something else
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They will finnd...
Find that they'll soon be at war against the Covenant in a few years
@@Lucius_Aurelianyou don’t get it
The twinkling of starlight, so far away, maybe it's just yesterday...
Zager & Evans :)
While the timeline of completing the prefab bridge projects are the most wishful of thinking, we do prefab bridges. They're constructed offsite, floated to the closest seaport for rail and/or road transportation to the end destination (if the destination isn't a seaport itself), and dropped into place before being secured, welded and tied to the foundational structure of the bridge. I've worked in construction fabrication and have had a hand in a few projects.
They’re also being heavily used in HS2, albeit it’s often on-site-ish pre-fab rather than far-away pre-fab. Still has advantages for tolerances, precision checks post-manufacture before being loaded on the crane, etc.
I've actually been inside the Shanghai Tower... lemme tell ya something... it's big. Like really... really... REALLY BIG. Not just tall, walking around the outside of it to buy a ticket to the viewing platform took ages. When you go inside, there's like a whole ass mall in the ground floor... and there are 5 basement floors. It's taller than most buildings in my city UNDER the ground >.
sometimes i get really high and realize how remarkable skyscrapers really are
@johner3364 what do you mean by high?😂
Time to make one for 2040 and be very wrong about it
5:50 much like in tng, not having to “cure” baldness is the actual advancement
The human genome project and general advances in genetics have actually given us quite a radical advance in the study of human ancestry and population movement over time. And it’s ridiculously cheap to sequence the entirety of someone’s genome nowadays.
Also like, the covid vaccines among others were primarily made thanks to advances in genetic engineering which was made possible by the human genome project. I'd consider that a fairly significant application.
Regarding the antimatter prediction, we now know just how difficult it would be to achieve Warp travel. It’s likely not impossible as we’re coming to understand quantum physics more and more, but it’s definitely still several decades off.
Even a couple decades is _very_ optimistic. We basically just found out where the starting line is
Decades is incredibly generous considering we're still decades off at best from even comparatively simple shit like fusion or getting to the closest planet to us.
@DigiMaster236 we have reached the closest planets to us multiple times. If we wanted to send astronauts on a one way trip, we could have them on Mars by next Christmas if we started working right now. If we genuinely wanted to visit Mars right away, we could do so in under 5 years. We just aren't willing to spend the hundred billion or so dollars that would cost.
@@Cr3zant Having lived through several years of predictions that didn't come true, I have given up expecting anything that was predicted more than 5 years in advance and most things less than that.
Expectation : 2 decades
Reality : 7 centuries
Where's my goddamn holographic meatloaf
Only in a perfect world.
The antimatter one towards the nearest star really got me. That shit will take another 100+ years at least at our current rate of development
Seriously, interstellar human civilization is at least couple hundred years out, probably more like 500-600 even, and not until after humanity crawls back from a major collapse, presuming the Earth isn't rendered uninhabitable and we're not extinct that is.
It'll be like the opening to futurama where society advances and the aliens destroy everything, only for society to advance and the aliens to destroy everything again, only for it to finally advance to the point of the show. Except replace aliens with us killing ourselves.
Son, the "current" rate of development has us depending on not less 15 re-fueling trips to fuel ONE (1) trip back to the moon
On a space ship made by Space Karen, that has not managed to left the atmosphere in one piece yet
This is true btw, the artemis mission are complete chaos behind curtains
At the current rate we're developing backwards
TBH we have the technology today, it would just take up like… all the capital in the world.
The reason we’re still using chemical rockets with non-adaptive exhaust nozzles is because they’re the cheapest. Not the best. We had prototype nuclear rocket engine designs in the 70s (look up NERVA), but it’s only in the last few years governments have decided to spend some money on planning to build and test them. And it could still be cancelled.
There _was_ actually one prediction by the Peak Oil crowd that was correct: light sweet crude has become extremely hard to find, and as a result almost _all_ the oil we extract in the US has a considerably lower EROI (due to processes like fracking and harder to refine oil as a result) than we had in 2005.
Yeah, fracking is literally scraping the bottom of the proverbial barrel. And before that it was tar sands, another hard to refine option.
I wouldn’t exactly call that on the up and up, even though there’s a lot of it available. There’s also a hell of a lot more coal that doesn’t burn hot enough to run a steam engine, or barely gets it by with poor power, than good quality stuff. Sheer availability isn’t everything.
Going to say that in 05' when I was still a teenager, I bought Dragon Quest 8 for the PS2.
It was amazing, now it can be played on a $20 smart phone. That's just me talking about how far cellphones have come, and no one was expecting this back then.
Playing games on a smart phone is fun, but man when they took off, no one I knew was ready. They moved so fast, smart phones, and their size, and how they became better than tablets.
They are more than games, DQ8 is a PS2 game, but they do so much more, I used to have to print out MapQuest papers to get to where I was going doing work across the city. My phone does that for me if I ask, and I don't even have to plan to get directions now.
Did anybody predict the Smartphone?
The downside is smartphones decimated our culture and the internet. As convenient as they are I prefer the world before them.
When I was in high school, I remember thinking how cool it would be to have AOL Instant Messenger and web browsing on a cell phone. I graduated in 2007, and I could see that mobile tech was advancing rapidly, but I never expected cellular speeds to be as fast as they are today.
What's weird is us still calling them smartphones when they're really just pocket computers the cell service is just kinda an extra at this point
@@ChutneyGames Fully agree with that.
@@ChutneyGames It's actually superfluous for some people. Wi-Fi calling exists so you can use one as a home line without ever turning on the cellular service.
6:46 The fact they used Halo in their prediction is probably just because Halo was still in its golden age at the time (kinda). The writers used a franchise they could be sure people knew about (or it was the only one the writers knew about), and they just kinda got lucky
Pre-fab bridges that can be put in place in the matter of days exist
We recently did that after a hurricane in Florida!
yeah one of them collapsed at a florida architecture school and killed people.
I mean, the military has had them for decades!
-wake up
-make video once you get a sponsorship deal
-sleep
-repeat
-wake up
-grab a brush and put on a little makeup
-hide the scars to fade away the shakeup
-why'd you leave the keys upon the table
"I should look into that [$10,000 hair thing]."
Me too, buddy. Me too.
It's fun to see this because around 20 years ago, I a bored kid going to my local library and was just getting into popular mechanics and Scientific American mostly. So I was reading stuff like this. Yeah, a lot of it did not play out how they expected. I do remember thinking at the time that some of them sounded a bit off. I was reminded of back when people used to predict flying cars and all that. Sure, they were predicting less crazy stuff, but it didn't exactly feels realistic still.
The worst prediction was that my parents thought I was gonna do alright in life
There's still time
Lmao this is basically you saying “I’m not the only one who makes bad predictions. Here’re a bunch of other short-sighted fools.” I’m here for the pettiness lol
With "digital passports", countries like Finland and Singapore are actually trialling completely paperless passports right now.
Also perhaps plasma TVs under $1000 might actually be true if accounted for inflation.
Prefab bridges are being used in some places like in China and parts of Australia.
I feel a big sense of ennui on how dull things actually are considering the wonder of people thought the future would be
I mean, we got VR. And electric cars. And Roombas, and CRISPR, and drones. And SpaceX. It's not all bad, stuff is happening.
@@Hamdadyet the average person's life is
wake up.
Commute for 2h. work for 8 h. Commute back for 3h.
Do some chores.
Eat fast food cause too tired to cook.
Scroll on phone for 3h.
Sleep.
Rinse. Repeat
People used to belive that living life would be better
Sure we have more convenient things
And the world second richest person gets to spend small nation's GDP once every 3 months building rockets that blow up before reaching space
But we're more isolated, most third spaces have gone out of businesses it's harder than ever to find new friends and keep the ones you have
There are multiple industries designed on profiting off our loneliness through social media
Speaking of which, social media has become so ubiquitous one's online life is completely intertwined with actual life
The misery online has bled over real life
We have democracies dangling on the line because of social media, including that of the US of A
A lot of things are objectively worse off now
None of the optimism of the new millennium has been realized, except for maybe Wikipedia, that's still pretty cool
“Wigs under 20 dollars“ 🤣
It's funny, I had to read this for an in class school assignment when I was a kid, and every once in a while I think to myself "in 2004, they thought they'd have hydrogen powered cars by 2010." And even now it's virtually impossible to store hydrogen in any meaningful quantity.
Fun fact prefabricated houses were a thing in 1900
I remember reading about peak oil. But, like you said, that prediction has been made a lot. This was before the fracking boom. In fact, 2023 reached a record as far as global oil production, averaging out at 101.7 million barrels a day. So, that prediction got drowned in oil. Another tidbit is that the US was the number 1 oil producer. I think that's the first time a non-OPEC country took the title.
I would like to give a shout out to Star Trek. It gave us hope that the future will be a Utopia after a lot and a lot and a lot of fucked up shit. They had Two different eugenics wars and three Apocalypse before things got better. we are just reaching the first one
Either Gene Roddenberry had more hope in us than we warranted or deserved, or he was trying to make us see a version of reality that was within our grasp if we were brave enough to step out and reach for it.
I love the hydrogen cell phones, "let's take the objects already perpetually irradiating our junk and make it explosive! I foresee no problems from this."
Have you seen battery fires?
@@matheussanthiago9685 I have, in fact I have been keeping my batteries out of dumps for years because I am very keenly aware of how dangerous batteries are for the environment. Now I have a question for you, have you seen the Hindenburg?
@@1perspective286 That zeppelin that burned up because it was been lifted up by hydrogen which is flammable? Yes.
I know you weren't talking to me but I just wanted to drop a comment here lol.
@@AerospaceCoot35 Thank you for proving my point. Hydrogen is one of the most explosive elements. Batteries are flammable, hydrogen is more than flammable.
the future prediction video from the 60s had better imagination and were more accurate lmfao
The worst 2000s prediction is that its all gonna be fine in the end.
They probably thought the Jay Leno retiring prediction was a slam dunk. After all, he said it was going to happen on the show!
I predict that twenty years from now, thanks the rise of graphene microprocessors, even those less fortunate will afford to have access to a computer that can play *Crysis 3.*
_What a wonderful world._
Thanks to graphene microprocessers we will finally be able to breath microprocessors along with microplastics
Yeah Hydrongen cars (or other devices) never made much sense as a concept in place of Electric Cars. I mean hell a Hydrogen car is fundamentally identical to an Electric Car, except that the storage medium for its energy is Hydrogen tanks whereas an EV has a battery. The problem with this is that every time you have to convert a form of energy between mediums, you end up losing a part of that energy cause no conversion is ever 100% efficient. Which means that for a H2 car you would use stuff like Solar Panels to gather electricity, and then use that electricity to create Hydrogen from water, then in the car you would convert that hydrogen back into electricity to run the motor. So that's two points during the process where you have to waste significant amounts of your energy converting it to hydrogen and back.
Meanwhile in an EV you just take the electricity from the source and use it as is. Thus making it a lot cheaper to power the vehicle and generally reduce energy demands overall. The only upside Hydrogen cars had for a while is that you could fit more hydrogen tanks into a car than batteries to make it run for longer for a while, but it was only a matter of time until battery tech improved enough to close that gap. And once it did, H2 cars had basically no advantages left. Some say that it avoids needing big expensive complex batteries, which is true, but you're only trading out needing big complex batteries for big complex fuel cells in order to convert the hydrogen into usable power.
And also just in terms of safety, while there are definitely concerns over things like batteries catching fire and the toxic fluids contained therein, Hydrogen tanks only need a slight rupture to explode with a massive cloud of extremely flammable gas, so yeah it's not exactly a great idea in that respect either.
Also cold places
Besides what you said, hydrogen leaks rapidly, and fuel cells wear down faster than batteries while also costing more. Nobody tells you that when promoting them.
Fuel cells aren't nearly as complicated as ev batteries and need way less rare earth minerals like cobalt. Also that explosion thing is just not true dawg 😂
@@bruhbruhhh6592 I don't know man, the Nazis learned that one the hard way.
@@logsupermulti3921 the 1940s were 80 years ago, also lmao what project was this?
I noticed they got most of the predictions "right" but they got the ubiquity wrong and were off by 5-10 years give or take
In the year 252525
The backwards time machine still wont have arrived.
In all the world, there's only one technology.
A rusty sword, for practicing proctology.
8:30 I literally watched Osmosis Jones a few hours ago, what a coincidence
Honestly, knowledgehusk, i love your videos so much that im gonna go out of my way to upvote every single one lol
#knowledgehusk snowman for prez
In germany we sometimes use prefab bridges.
But they are relatively smalle and mostly being used to replace very old small bridges below train rails. There is even documentations online how the whole process or replacement is done in
I have that magazine (the spanish version because Mexican)! found it again last year when I moved.... crazy I read it also 20 years ago for the first time ._.
these predictions are actually sad, they had such optimism and nearing the time they predicted it's so much worse than they could've imagined
7:16 McDonald's just introduced the "double big mac" and the quarter pounder burger patties got bigger in like 2015 so I'd say it's spot on
Canada had the Double Big Mac even before 2015.
Just? They’ve had double and triple options, as have Burger King, since I can remember. But the prediction wasn’t that bigger options would be available, because those “gourmet” burger restaurant dishes are ginormous. The prediction was the standard minimum size would go up. Somehow. 2 years after Super Size Me.
(Like how the gene therapy prediction wasn’t “some useful breakthroughs for some conditions” but “all diseases cured forever yaaay”)
7:19 eink is actually in it's infacy since we just got color for eink lol and its a limited number of colors. But it's good for your eyes I totally recomend getting one.
"Magazines will still exist"
4:00 The old world will run out of fresh water before it even halfway depletes its oil reserves
the lakes are already dead
Netherlands do prefab bridges.
Popular Mechanics must be held responsible for this falseness
The prefab roads prediction is the old 3D printed roads prediction
The article from Popular Mechanics took as much effort as this video
I like how the background music for the Enlisted ad was the Canadian national anthem 😅 🇨🇦
What's unfortunate is that a lot of the US is still captivated with hydrogen. There's always some proposal for hydrogen trains or still believing in the hydrogen car. And it's just as much of a dead end but it's the perpetual shiny thing I suppose.
You should read what the futurists were predicting in the 1900's. A lot of what they predicted was actually impressively accurate
Seems like burgers are actually smaller than they were 20 years ago.
"Magazines will still exist" 😿
my uncle got a super expensive hair transplant and was on all these meds to make it stick and he lost the entire transplant lmaooo so now he's just bald²
Bad predictions from more modern times, I love it just as much.
I predict that in the future video technology will become holographic. Eventually, people who watch movies on screens will be considered traditional and old school.
Damn that sounds sad as shit
Aren't hologram technology typical for future predictions?
@@ExtremeMadnessX Yes, but so were cellphones and touchscreens at one time. Now, those things actually exist.
what a bold and wacky prediction!
very cool mr knowledge
While we haven't reached it yet you should cover 2057 which was a series that aired in 2007.
I watched it religiously as a kid
Is the thing about flatscreen TVs costing under $1,000 ~technically true~ if you account for inflation?
I find it funny that you used the Canadian national anthem for the ad read.
2:34 but they were right about digital finger prints
should've made 1 hour content outta this topic!
There's still time to make these predictions come true! Let's make it happen!
Keep doing these what if
I always love how these predictions require miracle technology that just is magically invented
What’s the end song?
soundcloud.com/user-503704039/blumpo-theme-song
Plainly difficult has Mr. Music...Whats your outro music alter ego called?
Jeez that title is a mouthful
I hope you’re feeling okay. 😞
So what was the issue with Hydrogen fuel cells?
I remember people being really excited about it, and the only exhaust was water, so it seems like a cool tech. So what was the hang up? Battery life? Cost?
Lithium batteries were just easier I guess. No need for special infrastructure just a bunch of extension cables
It’s not cool or convenient enough (lack of fuel locations) for the masses.
Lithium batteries were significantly cheaper than hydrogen cells. Like a hydrogen SUV was over a million dollars
Hydrogen fuel cells also require a small lithium battery to function. People are right that refuelling stations didn’t expand, but that’s due to the severe energy costs in compression, transportation, and storage of the hydrogen. If you’ve ever seen liquid nitrogen, it’s like that but 10x worse. You can’t just grab a jerry can full of it.
The round trip efficiency from electricity to mileage of hydrogen vehicles is about 30%, compared to 80-90% for battery electric cars. Most people prefer to drive twice the distance for the same amount of power than have a 5-minute refuel just like with gas. 30% seemed fine compared to traditional cars, which are also 20-30% heat-efficient. But batteries kept getting better and reducing the situations where hydrogen fuel cells made sense.
Right now only huge ships, planes, and trains could benefit from its weight and refill time. Which isn’t nothing, but it’s a far cry from everything being powered by fuel cells. And as batteries get better, it gets restricted to bigger and bigger vehicles.
We still have one more year, you don't know maybe some crazy shit will happen this year
Where can I download the outro song?
Okay, kinda at a loss because he wrote it nowhere in the description: what is the name of the song in the end credits?
Wtf the canadian anthem was playing in the ad lmao.
Is it just me, or is that Oh' Canada playing during the enlisted sponsorship
Am I the only one noticing the Canadian National Anthem during your Enlisted ad? 🍁🇨🇦🍁🇨🇦🍁
What's the music in the outro?
I mean I always enjoy the sick tracks, but the "end credits" of this upload was over a minute long?
7:20 I think they meant actual food burgers
Dont listen to him. Enlisted will make you want to chuck your TV through a brick wall
Does anyone else think the music in the enlisted add sounds like a band instrumental of the canadian anthem?? Lmao??
Gaijin dropped another depressive disorder! Wohoo!
Really hoping some of these AI predictions are wrong 😅 (some)
Canadian national anthem during sponsored bit?
I got to say even in 2010 I thought they were going to be like flying cars and all that stuff 10 years later I never thought. Oh hey, that’s really impractical and wouldn’t work at all. I thought they were going to be crazy things 10 years later, but I guess when predicting the future, we’re always too optimistic and think that things are going to change really fast
that isnt a brick of carbon fiber thats refractory fire brick or something along those lines, point is its not carbon fiber
Hasnt peak oil already happened? But demand change has reduced the creation rsther than running out
I remember a prediction in a magazine that said that vaccines would be inhaled instead of injected and as a kid i was like fuck yeah needles are so scarey 😭
We are really close to prefab bridges thanks to China.
O Canada as the background song to an ad? The disrespect 😂
Didn't a couple of nations invest pretty heavily into hydrogen powered busses for their public transit?
Or was that plans that fizzled?
Why did the ad for Enlisted have O'Canada playing in the background mean while its showing American stuff 😆
You're funny at making your videos haha. 😁👌
peak oil hasn't happened yet, good for us
I hate to sound like a robotic ad, but Enlisted unironically looks like a lot of what I enjoyed about the original Battlefield... for free(tm)! This is legitimately the first time I'm gonna try a game based on an ad. Yes, I have literally never in my life ever downloaded or tried RAID SHADOW LEGENDS or World of Tanks.
Upon further investigation to download it on PC I am backing the f*** out of this.