Why the Fed's Rate Cut Forecast Could be Wrong | Joseph Wang & Danielle DiMartino Booth - Public App
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- Опубліковано 16 чер 2024
- Joseph Wang, Founder of FedGuy.com, and Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research, break down the Fed's recent June meeting and why Powell and its leadership held a more hawkish stance.
Both experts also discuss how recent inflation numbers, consumer spending trends, and the recent migration influx to America could lead to more rate cuts in 2024.
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Most Americans find it hard to retire comfortably amid economy downtrend. Some have close to nothing going into retirement, my question is, will you pay off mortgage as a near-retiree, or spread money for cashflow, to afford lifestyle after retirement?
as most investing-related questions, the answer is, it depends.. my best suggestion is to consider advisory management
Agreed the role of advisors can only be overlooked, but not denied. I remember in early 2020, during covid-outbreak, my portfolio worth around $300k took a slight fall, apparently due to the pandemic crash, at once I consulted an advisor in order to avoid panic-selling. As of today, my account has yielded big fat yields, and leverages on 7-figure, only cos I delegate my excesses right.
this is huge! mind if I look up the advisr that guides you please? only invest in my 401k through my employer for now, but enthused about diversifying my investments for a prosperous financial future
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks a lot for this suggestion. I needed this myself, I looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The Fed should be raising rates not cutting them.
Yep. By at least a full point.
But it’s all fake anyway, so it doesn’t really matter.
Why low rates push up asset prices?
The debt based economy would instantly explode.
@@curtissharris8914 It just reduces the value of the currency and asset prices melt up but are actually less valuable.
They REALLY don't want to. It is a Presidential election year, and corporations are screaming for cuts. Those are powerful voices.
Historical data would show the DDB is likely correct in her prediction. Bad news is good news until those rate cuts kick in and the market comes to terms with the reality that unemployment is skyrocketing and bad news is just bad news.
Peter Schiff made a good point too. Volker cracked the credit cycle in 1981 with punitive borrowing rates. Personal debt-spending fell. Now it has not fallen off, because 5.3% is still low; credit card debt expanded. People are still borrowing. So inflation is not in check yet.
Correct because during Volker we had a surplus account from overseas. Not 7% current deficit
I don't know where the gov gets their inflation numbers, but I can tell you that inflation is running a good 20% to 30% at the grocery store where it counts. And some items, are up 80-100% in two years. Take a look at coffee & related creamers as an example or a hundred other things.
Exactly
Add auto and home insurance...
They're talking about the rate of inflation... not HOW inflated things are. It's a good talking point of the undiscerning lib's who just quote the inflation rate as "inflation."
CPI is an aggregate of a ton of items. Personal inflation rate is obviously personal. If all you eat is eggs, coffee and cream then maybe your food inflation rate is 100%.
@@rathelmmc3194 No, look at the CPI elements again. Its salient feature is not what it includes, "a ton of items" as you say, but what it OMITS! Nothing for auto insurance, credit card interest rates, cost of a house, actual rents, health care costs, tuition. All that is ignored. The CPI is trash, a phony index divorced form real household expenses to hide inflation to make governments look good and have lower COLA's for government pensions, Soc Security, etc.
Powell is playing games. He keeps hinting at cuts to string the market along, knowing that cuts will reignite inflation.
Agree. The Market is Being Willingly Led,,Everybody Knows Whats Up
Inflation dropped from 5.6% to 0.1% in 5 months back in 2008.
Market is dumb 😂
Market is fake.
no, he thought housing was going to crash, but it didn't
Middle and lower earning families are getting crushed!!
How discouraging! Work 40 hrs per week and barely can afford to keep their lights on or feed their kids…
Recession coming- guess what, only going to hurt the same families who are already struggling!
And that’s 80%+ of the population. 90%+ in most other countries. Our way out of a recession will be to print more, increasing these percentages further.
Capitalism is not working for the masses and I fear civil wars as a result.
Yeah, we need tort reform also -- all the frivolous insurance claims and baloney lawsuits have hurt auto insurance companies, plus the cost of repairs, so rates have gone up a lot. Same with property insurance. This hurt all drivers and homeowners.
When they start to cut remember inflation as it will rise too. Sadly you take the good with the bad. Good video guys.
The politicians spending is what ruins all of the FEDs plans.
Inflation is by design and punishment on the masses. Everything is punishment in the name of correction.
Deflation is a punishment to the debtor, and since the masses are debtors this is a classic no win scenario.
@@rathelmmc3194 Yes, Keynes stressed the hidden forces that compel inflation: how financially reckless governments are and how the debtor class outnumbers the rich at the ballot box, and those with loans for anything need cheaper dollars ahead to ease the pain of repayment of debt, whether on a farm or truck, etc.
So we're almost 8 months into a fucken recession, and I just got cut from my truckin' job - after an unending 18 month 'freight recession' - in the 7th. 💩🤷♂️
Yeah, that sucks. Never has it been more true than now about needing money to make money; the investor class has benefited from asset price inflation to stocks, gold, real estate, rents, T-bills, etc. Passive income from investing. But the working man has no other source of income than his job. And wages have lost their old purchasing power.
I know this is completely out of the content but I'm super attracted to Danielle DiMartino Booth. ❤
She's going to read this and just totally fall for you. Leave her husband and all that.
Hey guys, don’t be a simp like him 👆
Her mammaries are mesmerizing
As a 24 years consultant in the world of Preparedness and Survival Skills there are some very concerning scenarios we are seeing in the natural world that could disrupt all views of the future economy. With the last gasp of the current Grand Solar Maximum we are seeing very disturbing CME activity that we witnessed in May. It is going then move us into the 320-380 years cycle of the Grand Solar Minimum that actually created a Mini Ice Age over two thirds of the USA. This time we will probably avoid the Ice event but not the Arctic freezing temperatures for upwards of 35 years!
Interesting that Daniel included Joseph's prediction at the very end
Who's Joseph?
@@ssuwandi3240 look at the title of the video
As a viewer outside of the USA it seems obvious. It's all about salvaging the $ . PERIOD , FULL STOP , THAT'S ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW.
“You are either investing or letting inflation eat away at your purchasing power” saw this somewhere and it really resonates with me. I have about $300,000 sitting in a HYSA and I want to invest it. Where would you invest this as of now?
I mean at some point Congress has to stop deficit spending at a rate that is higher than GDP growth. The debt can grow, but it needs to come down in percentage terms against GDP.
I see DDB and Fed guy, I click!
When do bankruptcy widen credit spreads?
He’s going to eat those last words
Powell's promising as little as possible in order to be Mr. Responsible, before the recession explodes and the Fed is forced to cut like crazy.
Always enjoy DDB's point of view and Joseph is interesting BUT! The volume between the interviewer and the others is way off. Need to edit better.
I had to use subtitles...
The only way to reduce the risk of run away inflation after a cut is to raise rates one more time before cutting
When does the stock market start to align to reality? Amazing how long it takes.
Job losses are continuing to happen in tech and in Northern California I am seeing foreclosures. It hasn’t hit San Diego because everyone wants to move here
I don’t think Mr. Wang is familiar with the history of the market and how it is directly affected by interest rates. As soon as the first rate cut is announced, because they are forced to be honest about the recession, the market will start to tumble and continue to tumble until rate cuts stop.
These Millennials and Gen Zers with their speculative trading are adding chaos into the mix. True investors will shift their assets out while the speculators will carry it for a time with momentum and hype. It would only take a month or so for the rug to get pulled out from under them.
The fed doesnt need to cut rates. Just convince you that they will. Rate cuts are seeing diminishing returns as far as effectiveness anyway. Theyd have to cut far below neutral, wherever that is.
That is, until something breaks really bad, and we're back to 0% in a heartbeat.
Some of us believe it is already below neutral of natural.
Only way to get inflation down is to reduce energy prices. Simple but we need to build back better. There going to be no cuts this year. They made the mistake of not jacking up rates enough.
Inflation will not come down if the politicians keep increasing the Debt vs GDP
If there is a scarcity of flour and a subsequent rise in the price of baked goods, is that inflation?
The federal reserve needs to raise the fed funds to 20%, make houses affordable for americans again, remember, americans are the people who live in america bank in america, and use dollars.
Joe sees the Market higher for longer - I am betting against that theory. There are simply too many crazy stupid metrics in play. Market Cap / GDP, Market Cap Weighting of the top 6 equities, Charting: Top 6 vs Rest (S&P and Nasdaq)
Historically wants to cut the market collapses
Wang said the markets were gonna rip. He understands the Fed.
Rip and drop. Be ready
@@cski9148 While everyone's been waiting for the drop they've missed out on amazing returns
Higher forever-no freaking cuts.
Wait until the petrodollars start coming home from the saudis move. Yes, americans thought they were struggling with this inflation, wait until they get 200% inflation (e.g. some goods will be 4X).
U are so sweet and nice and very smart danielle😊
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Sonia campbell
I agree just reached my goal of $500k monthly trade earnings. Setting realistic goals is an essential part of trading
Please educate me, i'm willing to make consultations to improve my situatio
She's recognized as 'Mrs Sonia . One of the finest portfolio managers in the field. She's widely recognized; you should take a look at her work.
I even thought I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of forex trading.....
These are the only people tellimg you the truth
Along with Rosensburg
Peter Schiff and Gundlach too.
Joseph wang could be wrong about the fed.
I said this before and I'll say it again because I watch a lot of these channels. I have no idea what these people are talking about cuz all I see are people spending tons of cash. Brand new cars, vacations, going out to dinner all the time. I have neighbors putting additions on their houses and new decks on. So I just don't know what all these people on all these channels are talking about because I sure as hell don't see it. However I will submit I have no idea where people are getting all this money it makes no sense. I make 145 k a year and I have almost no debt except for a mortgage and I'm not even spending because things are so tight. But a lot of people just don't seem affected
when are you gonna tell the truth that there are simply too much currency circulating in the hands of the rich while average Joes have nothing?
Average Joes keep giving it to the rich.
Someone give Joe a cup of Joe. 😂
Repent the kingdom is near.
1 John 1:9
Thousands of homeless
Tons of spamming BScomments.
Blah blah blah
Curious if y'all think that Fiscal Dominance will be the COMPLETE TRAIN wreck that history tells us it will be?
"BUT THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!"
LOL. 😅