NVIDIA DCF Valuation Model Built From Scratch | FREE EXCEL INCLUDED (2023)
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- Опубліковано 31 тра 2024
- ⬇️ Download the NVIDIA DCF Excel for FREE ⬇️
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⏱Timestamps⏱
0:00 - Agenda
4:55 - Wall Street Prep
7:05 - Income Statement & Cash Flow Line Items
48:15 - Build DCF
1:31:30 - WACC
1:41:30 - Calculating Implied Share Price
2:03:15 - Price Discussion
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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#nvidia #nvda #stocks #dcf
⬇ Download the NVIDIA DCF Excel for FREE ⬇
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Hi Ben, first of thank you for answering my question on stream about learning and memorizing the steps to financial models! You said it would be good to understand the concepts, do you think you could make a video on this when you have some free time in the near future if you haven't do so already? Thank you!
Please sir
Hi, we want it!!
did he upload it yet?
so not available yet ?
I haven’t done a DCF in like two years now lol, watching this is nostalgic and traumatizing all at once 💀
Keep these educational videos coming! Really appreciate the time you took.
we need more of these streams ben! these are amazing great work buddy!!
Hey Ben, really amazing content - appreciate you putting these out for free, and they're incredibly helpful. Any chance you'd be willing to do a formatting / shortcuts video sometime when you get a chance, please? Trying to get better and faster at my DCFs and would love to get some more exposure to the quick keys & formatting tools you're using. Thanks!
A video I was eagerly waiting for. Thank you so much for this video. I was making projections on nvidia. And you cleared it.♥️
BRO YOU ARE WILD OMG
Love these streams. Keep up the good work
thank you for these streams
Ty my G keep cooking
when calculating WACC, what year should you get the debt and equity value to get the proportion? year 1 of forecasts? or last year of actual FS?
Amazing video !!!
Where did you get the Financial Stements Data From???
Teşekkürler. Güzel bir sunum
Like a slice of nostalgia from the olden days 😀
haha yeah!
What service do you use to obtain the financials for any company like you did in the stream?
how do you justify the high rate of growth of revenues and ebit?
thank you so much, very useful
5 months later..... this video aged like milk left in the blistering sun. Good example of how no one truly knows what a stock or the market will do next, and neither technical analysis nor fundamental analysis works all the time. The best thing to do is combine the two and stay within your circle of competence only investing in companies or businesses you truly understand. Or you can index and add on dips until you die. A DCF model isn't the end all be all to financial analysis and your decisions should NEVER be made solely upon it. It's a tool, made to be used in combination with other analysis metrics and tools as well as your gut feel and basic intellectual understanding of the environment and the business in question.
i literally say what you said in the beginning of the video lol. never use this as your only decision making tool but better for some to use a dcf than nothing at all because it provides you a range of what you need to believe to justify certain stock prices
amazing
Thanks for sharing!
Got a question here, in 1:54:09 if we were standing at Sep 2023, but you assumed the whole 2023 cash would come in in the coming 0.14 year? Shouldn't we just discount 2023Q4 cash?
I think you have to do the yearfrac of revenue and then do the discount?
Thank you
The calendar year of income statement screwed my mind lmao. Thanks for the video btw
how can you make color for each number? do you have any general formatting
What keyboard shortcut are you using to reduce decimal places? I noticed you aren't using Alt H 9
Hi Ben, thanks so much for your amazing video! Have a couple of questions about estimations:
1. What's approach to use for estimates if there is no data on a company on Factset or no access to this platform?
2. Does DCF model fit for a new business unit of a company completely without historicals? What source for data to use in this case?
Try to learn about monte carlo Simulation. It is used in forecasting in DCF model.
thanks bro
I think you calendarized in the wrong direction. Should have been 1/12 of the 1/31/14 column plus 11/12 of the 1/31/15 column.
Why? Its taking 11 months from year 1 and 1 month from year 2? Since the financial year is from 1/2/14 - 1/1/15?
So;
11/12 year 1 (2014)
1/12 year 2 (2105)
Or am i missing something?
@@lucashuijts6482 The period you are referring to would be from 1/1/14 to 12/31/2014 - so CY2014. The first part of this CY2014 calculation, where he took 11/12 of FY2015, is correct. However, to this he added 1/12 of FY2016, when he should have added 1/12 of FY2014.
First of all, thank you for the video, It is amazing. For the revenue 2014, 11/12 of the revenue should come from the amount as of 25-Jan-15 and 1/12 should come from the figre as of 26-Jan-14. Formula is =(11/12)*IS!C9+(1/12)*IS!B9. There is nothing belongs to 2014 in the report as of 31-Jan-16. Same for the EBIT. Am I right?
yea i think thats right, i got confused as well when he did 1/12 of 2016
Thanks - really good vide but it literally went up over 100 percent
Hi, in the 00:40:45 when you said converting "Change in NWC" be positive, why should we do this step? and why we only give the minus sign to the first part of the equation: '=-(11/12)*CFS!C32+(1/12)*CFS!D32' ? Thanks.
I believe its a mistake, I too was confused when he did that. I believe you should parenthesize the whole equation and not just the first part.
can u include an excel template (same like you started in the video) so we can also practice alongside you ?
@13:00 Shouldnt It be 11/12 of 2014 cause we are calculating for 2014?
Thank you very much for the video.
Do you know if as an individual retail investor can I get access to Factset?
FactSet do not currently license for retail investors, unfortunately.
Hi Ben,
What do you suggest if you don't have access to factset for historical financial data? Are there alternatives that work (cost wise) for individual investors just looking to model companies for personal investing?
You can always visit the annual reports on their websites
This is the prof that a DCF or mathematics are not enough to predict a stock price. Currently trading at 877$
I think the issue with this is your predictions for the future. You need more information to make a proper prediction for the future for that to be calculated in the DCF
is there any update on when the DCF model download is ready? Cheers from denmark
ready now!
@@rareliquid thank you so much!🙌🏼
Hi do you use levered or unlevered beta for cost of equity calculation?
You mainly use the levered beta. However, if you want to calculate an industry beta, you need to first unlever the beta and then relever it for the firm in interest.
Draft Kings dcf tomorrow?
Hi. I’m a physician and I’m very much interested in finance. I was initially thinking of joining an MBA to understand finance but I just wanted to know the basics. Do you know any place where I can learn the basics of finance so that I can understand your video better?
If you want to fully understand the video you need to study the entire balance sheet, how to analyze it, corporate finance to understand what's the Wacc, the DCF (the model of the video) and other models, some financial mathematics
@@riccardopossenti5099 is there a textbook where I can learn the basics for this
LMAO loved the confusion about NVIDIA's growth projections. It comes from their datacenters business which all the AI companies are gonna need to build their complex models. If you check the breakdown of their revenue and see where they get their growth from, i suspect data centers will have the most growth. Thanks though this was really helpful
U know thats not true
Can you make some videos on excel please
when will the excel sheet be ready to download?
ready now!
if we have purchase Nvidia share at the time of these video then we would have made lot of money
currently watching this Before market open price of $NVDA is 953.86, up 231% hahah
where do you download the data ? I have to do a project for my university and I need the balance sheet the income statement the cash flows and calculate the ratios could anyone help me plese ?
from macrotrends you can get 14 years of financial data
Change in NWC was calculated incorrectly I think...
한국 사람이신가요?? 이민을 가신거예요?
Brother, can u help me - I'm using your DCF template for an interview assignment I need to submit tomorrow.
I need to make a DCF for Ramco Systems (Indian listed) and I'm stuck on Taxes. The company is negative earning and it's hard to determine the tax rate, could u guide me what to do here? I'm building from 2018 till 2028E
To this - Can i pay you $10 to check my model lol - I just need some fixes on the Tax bit more than anything
you use the NOLs carryfoward, use the operating loss as a deductions for future taxable income
My professors try to tell me that the terminal growth rate should be 80-85% of the WACC. I tell them no way. Do you agree? I always used 2-3% for TGR
NOBODY agrees with your professors
There is no connection between WACC and TGR. Nobody will agree with that your professors say. I wonder where he got this concept.
I always take the risk free rate as the TGR.
@@sumanthasaha61 That is also not correct. In India, risk free rate is higher than that of US. It is around 7%. You cannot take a TGR of 7% even for India which is a developing market.
@@anubhavonytIndia doesn’t have a risk free rate… government bond doesn’t equal risk free rate, the global standard is to use the us 10y bond. So your point isn’t quite relevant, hope that clears it
Isn’t all of this basically astrology of the financial markets?
The tax rate is so low it's crazy
Back at a point where $NVDA is $925 per share haha
crazy he was way of
nvidia is not the most cheap maker, it is TSMC
just 1-2 bad quarters and it will bite dust
I think Nvidia is actually going to experience negative revenue growth in 2024.
hmm i wouldn't bet on that for 2024. maybe in future years it's possible if there's a dip in activity though or supply chain isues
@@rareliquid That's a bet. I'm coming back this comment next year. You owe me a beer if I'm right.
Welp this was a bad take in hindsight
This didn't age well haha
what do you mean
@@bingsu1637 the implied share prices were huge underestimates. Thats why I dont like following these models - models are only good for modeling, not necessarily forecasting (yet hedge funds still do this and lose money too).
@@bingsu1637well, he called it overpriced and the share price since then has almost doubled...
?
@@hansa9159 the stock is way higher. DCF is not usually a good model to follow
Fundamental analysis on growth stocks… face palm. You can’t factor in momentum bro.
DCF is nonsense. it's impossible to predict the fair value. all you can do is relative analysis + intuition
these are too basic bro! not even a 3 statement model
you were wrong
no he wasn't
he literally was@@underratedblastoise3908
Hi Ben! Love your work, I can't download the DCF Excel... It is still available? I would love to see!!
Greetings from Portugal :)