Is A 5% Cash Rate For Australia On The Cards?
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- Опубліковано 20 чер 2024
- As I discussed on my live show, on Tuesday night with Leith van Onselen, the RBA decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, but there were signs of a more hawkish tone from the meeting notes, and the subsequent press conference (which I might add is becoming less useful each time thanks to weak questions supporting weak answers, come on MSM do your job….)
Bullock was clear, we need more data, there are risks to the upside from sticky inflation, but employment is also an important factor, given their dual mandate.
Just remember folks, the RBA at 4.35% is significantly below several other Central Banks, including the Bank of England, which held rates on Thursday at 5.25%, despite inflation falling to 2% last month, Bank of Canada which cut rates by 0.25% to 4.75% and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank holding rates at 5.5%, despite driving the economy there into recession.
Which begs the question, has the RBA done enough on rates to squeeze inflation out of the economy in Australia, despite being lower the peers, mainly because in Australia a greater proportion of mortgages are linked to variable rates than other countries. Economists are divided, with Leith still holding the next cut will be down, as unemployment rises.
But writing on Monday, before the RBA decided to hold rates on Tuesday, Economist Warren Hogan, at the more bullish end of commentators on RBA rates, wrote in the AFR that the flow of data since the last meeting in early May made it a very close call to hold off on further tightening.
The narrow path is still attainable, but it increasingly looks like we will need to get rates up closer to 5 per cent to stay on it.
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Australia needs a massive recession. Prices are out of whack😊
Exactly everyone gets poor and the rich get richer.
We are already in a massive per-capita recession, being hidden by immigration numbers.
they wont do it. we are going out in a blaze of glory. im stuffed now because i thought the housing market was going fall after listening to to martin and john over the yrs.
@@MegaMr28 You cannot think for yourself?
@@user-sp4gy7ko5l its hard to think for yourself when nothing makes sense. Australian property investors took a big gamble and they won purely because polititians are also property investors.
Australian economic collapse and depression is inevitable given the rapidly increasing amount of barely serviceable debt and money funneled into property away from economy.
RBA will try not to raise rates anymore but they are unable to drop rates because of braindead and morally corrupt polititians fuelling demand into property via endless mass immigration
I just received the insurance renewal for my car, 30% increase! Thats the real inflation❗
My house insurance went up 59%. CPI from the ABS is a lie.
My car insurance went up 80%, no claims for 40 years, same boring family car
@@darrens5731 have you ever used it ?
@@darrens5731 The government should have an inquiry into the insurance sector. They are among the worst offenders.
Word has it the WEF leadership are very happy with the situation in Australia crushing the middle class as planned.
Asking MSM to do journalism.. be fair and reasonable, Martin!
Good point, but I can only hope...!
The msm is dictating what RBA does.
Because now they can politicise and weaponize it.
I'm amazed that the cash rate isn't already above 6%
True inflation is in double figures.
While the RBA and banks keep printing money you won’t kill inflation will you.. ❤
I predicted they would continue to sit on their hands 5 months ago same same USA Canada UK 🇬🇧 New Zealand all got the job done but Australia siting on stagflation now 🤔😉🫣😩😧
5 months ?
Rates started going up in 22
Everything before that is fiction.
Yep, we're getting proper stagflation.
they care about inflation , they want control . if they worked for the people they would never have taken rates so low and left them there and then take them up fast
It's needed. Bring it on, I say. They have been too timid.
Inflation decreasing, but prices ain’t dropping … the high prices is the standard price, it ain’t returning to what you paid for the same item last year…
it never has, has it?
They need to rip the bandaid off because "inflation expectations" and "wage price spiral" will be uglier than a few hundred thousand mortagee in possession sales. It seems they are either waiting on war/supply chain shortages or AI to cut through staffing levels. Either way the uncertainty is like a cancer going through the community.
they are waiting for some thing . i think the up coming sports event would be a good black flag
They are waiting for the new plandemic. Could be that bird flew MSM keeps talking about in recent days.
I agree
Two more rate rises to come. I've been saying so since rates were frozen. 5% cash rate would be a reasonable rate in this overheated economy.
Any rate rises will be compensated with more govt spending. Prices won’t fall, just more ppl will fall out of middle class.
U.s.a will increase the % rate. Aus will need to do the same otherwise the aud will fall
I remember when interest rates were on the way down to the basement and every time they dropped reporters were out asking the public what the reduction meant to them,most people said oh its great now our mortgage repayments have fallen we can spend more on dining out new cars holidays and anything else that takes our fancy . Realistically people have become accustomed to cheap money and thought it would never end,reserve interest rate needs to sit at around 8% if we want to get this country back to somewhere near normal
Even 8% is a bit on the low side.
If war kicks off expect interest rates to spike to 20%
@@antpoo Beauty
@@robertcampbell6521 the downside is, We all go on rations and work in a war economy that pays us less than we produce.
That idea of charging people to use cash is even considered enfuriates me. When your taxed to hold things you were taxed to buy using money that was taxed to earn, the idea that there should be a tax to spend.... Someone has a lead deficiency
AND the Banks charge you to spend your own Cash !
Bastards !
The system is broken. It must be dismantled and a new one built that benefits THE PEOPLE, not the parasites! BUT we need a UNITED PEOPLE....but most are off arguing with others about the latest forever war, or immigrants, or whatever other distraction is being used...even men against women for goodness sake 😢
Picked my missus up from the airport last night, I'm pretty tanned olive skin but FFS looks like anglo saxons are seriously marginalised (WTF is happening to this country) its an absolute disgrace!
Why do they still rely on lagging indicators to guide monetary policy?
price of a product i buy at chemists warehouse went up from $64 to $100 over the weekend. 9 or 10% might be more appropriate than 5%
Excellent thank you the honest analysis
The main stream media will not do that job you expect because it might contribute to panic.
recession that we have to have 2.0
We are so lucky to have such a smart & honest RBA governer
along with a fantastic government 😉
You would make a great comedian!
😂😂😂😂
🤣
How much of the labour shortage is driven by the backlog of infrastructure construction needed to cater for our ballooning population?
When an immigrant arrives we gain the long term benefit of their efforts over their working lives, but they create an immediate short term deficit in housing and everything else they need. I don't think this is going to be solved until our various construction and supply industries are granted a reprieve.
Thats the tricky part - they are all going bust due to the cost of building and the high cost of borrowing money. Easing interest rates would help home construction - but it would be inflationary!? So the RBA is stuck. I feel like its going to be a long grind unfortunately
No benefits exist for Australia
Within a year the housing market/rent will consume all the discretionary money for 85% of the population. The economy will collapse, because the top 15% save and invest, they don't spend that much.
We will all get universal basic income in digital currency just so we don't complain too much on youtube about it.
Lets face it though, most discretionary money is wasted on unnecessary things like coffee, dining out, Netflix, gambling, expensive hotels, SUVs, nail salons, latest fashions, new iPhones, magazine subscriptions and other daily fluff that people think is essential in their vacuous little lives.
@Andre_XX ans also 2hat gives many of us jobs. But enjoy the depression
@@morganoox3838 If you think making coffees and painting nails constitutes an economy, you had better prepare for a huge depression.
I hope so
Did she say houshold Real incomes will rise due to tax cuts and lower inflation? 🤣🤣🤣
6% if USA stumbles further....
they needed a one term government , to pass the pandemic treaty
It's going to be interesting to see effect of the the tax cuts.
Australia doesn't physically change on July 1, but mainly full time income earners have around 20 or more billion additional after tax income, chasing the same amount of goods and services.
A drop in the ocean, about $2 billion/month. 40,000 new full-time jobs in a month, even on minimum wage, is worth about $150 billion/month.
@@chrisdepasquale4307
My math suggests 40,000 full-time jobs, at $10,000 a month = 400 million.
At around 2 billion in tax savings is like having an extra 200,000 good income earners suddenly arriving.
I'm not saying it's going to change the world, but it's significant.
Hello Martin 🙂
HI
NZ and USA at 5.5. AUS is low still!
thought there would be more forced selling housing on the market. Especially in Sydney.
We’re paying the same amount of tax now as before the gst but WITH the gst
Insurance, car 27%, house 30% increase, have a guess what people will do, feed the family or insure stuff, this will come back and haunt us.
Interest rates between 4 and five percent is about right all round.
I doubt Australia will maintain normal interest rate. I believe they will drop back to nearly 0%. RBA, politicians and all selfish Aussies who own homes want growing property prices. This means AUD has to remain low to attract foreign buyers of existing homes.
Watch this space. Sooner than you think any Australian political party will sacrifice all renting middle class, they will destroy lives of all non-property-rich-parent young Australians forever and AUD will be somewhere near Argentina levels.
Property owners don't need to worry too much as the ones that don't, rich people in places like Argentina and Venezuela are still rich while poor become destitute and die of starvation. This will be Australia any day now.
Send the Asteroids
up the immigration that should help.
1st comment
Yay for me
On what planet did he think they in anyway suggested rate hikes? What an embarrassment, absolute best case would be holding. This poor commentary from an old man.
WTF !!!!!!! So you are saying that interest rates will not go up from here ????? That's a big call and most likely very wrong!!!
Reading off a script.
You could have AI read this and spend your time doing something valuable.
You think?
AI voices are very annoying to listen to. I'm sure many of Martins viewers would tune out having to listen to an AI voice.
Ai is poison toxic and dangerous. It is ARTIFICIAL in case you missed that part? I guess you'll be eating the lab grown "meat" as well since you like ARTIFICIAL so much?
It isn't a cash rate though.
Cash loans are 12-20% interest.
Cash means interest now, apparently.
Australia needs a massive recession. Prices are out of whack😊
Yes, the cleansing power of a recession (which we needed 15 years ago), has not been allowed to happen.
Actually prices are cheap.. for foreign buyers that Albanese is luring in by the millions now. AUD dropped by half in recent times.
Is this Paul Keating speaking?