Which shipping mechanics ACTUALLY affect currency returns

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  • Опубліковано 17 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 107

  • @sirgog
    @sirgog 4 місяці тому +12

    One thing stands out in the test at 9:00 - the number of transmutes (one of the most common currencies) goes down as dust goes up, but only within expected variation. I'd suggest looking further into that. You'll see the same effect if you compare Stacked Decks (rigged in favour of rarer cards) to Gambler card (not rigged) turnins - Decks get meaningfully less Rain of Chaos.

    • @gabe-i4w
      @gabe-i4w 4 місяці тому

      Yet other really common currencies increased in number, chaos went down and so on. The amount of dust sent was a HUGE difference, I don't think that can be seen remotely as dust affecting it. Even if he got unlucky with the last shipment and lucky with the first one, unless they expect us to be sending 10 million + dust every time. And we know that's not really a factor when there's people getting mirrors from quite small shipments.

  • @xRustySpoon
    @xRustySpoon 4 місяці тому +64

    Thank you for actually taking the time to test things methodically and keeping records of it all. Everyone else seems to be okay with posting their intuitions and calling it a "guide to shipping."

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому +3

      Seriously, it's really starting to annoy me. No actual testing methodology, just gut feeling and ego.

    • @eduardoburgosacosta243
      @eduardoburgosacosta243 4 місяці тому +1

      ​@@DustinHarmstrue true

    • @JanPapiezGaming
      @JanPapiezGaming 4 місяці тому +1

      That's why I feel sorry for new players lmao

  • @bhwung
    @bhwung 4 місяці тому +47

    I'm pleased to announce your successful defence of your PhD thesis in PoE! Welcome Dr Waggle!

  • @ZiggyDGaming
    @ZiggyDGaming 4 місяці тому +70

    Great testing Waggle! It does seem dust is not affecting currency much or at all and seems to be mostly for boosting total value for getting runes and tattoos. It'd be interesting to find out if it's scaling other gear quality/rarity (sockets, tiers, unique chance etc).

    • @JonathanBarratt.PhaerusIconix
      @JonathanBarratt.PhaerusIconix 4 місяці тому +9

      more evidence that the (simple) theory of port favour is incorrect: since the first video saying favour was a thing two days ago i stopped upgrading my port and just focussed on successfully filling orders; have sent 57 shipments while keeping my port at level 4 and see no change in order or reward size. did you group control for port level in your testing or where they upgrading their ports as they could and so it could be a confounding variable? i.e. was increased shipping activity happening at the same time as port upgrades? it would have been natural to do so but it means that number of shipments is not distinct from port level. i will stop all shipping and then just sent one ship every time i level my port to see if the shipping orders go up from just 1 order each time i level my port from now on, unless you can tell me a better way to test from here? (e.g. good to send 1 per upgrade, or just wait to last upgrade and then see the change from just 1 shipment but 6 port levels all at once?) i'll just stockpile upgrade mats for a while first before i get started in case you can... anyway, thanks very much for sharing all your knowledge exile! edit: missed words. edit 2: further testing confirms there's no favour system for ports (at least before top tier port anyway) it's prolly just that the testers were leveling up their ports while they were building up their shipment counts. this explains why they had to make it into a global system instead of the per-port system they naturally assumed at first... someone plz tell reddit.

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому +1

      In my testing, it's not. I send out 3 ships at a time, one no dust, one 8,000 dust, and one 80,000 dust (otherwise same resources) - they are all consistently similar. In fact, the only 6-links I've gotten (on the topic of gear) have all come from NO dust shipments.
      Dust is either bait or solely used for getting a bit more runes, but I'm not 100% on the latter just yet.

    • @down-the-rabbit-hole
      @down-the-rabbit-hole 4 місяці тому

      @@DustinHarms thanks for the info. I'm going to stop completely disenchanting items altogether, as it seems like a complete waste of time. GGG needs to fix this. Having dust in the game and having it not affect shipments when they seemed to imply in the league reveal that it does, is either a bug they need to fix or they just baited us.

    • @Bobington11
      @Bobington11 4 місяці тому

      @@down-the-rabbit-hole Dust can be used to top up a shipment's value to increase the runes/tattoos. That seems to be its only useful effect.

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому

      @@down-the-rabbit-hole There is a chance that dust affects output of Runes/Tattoos, but still more testing needs to be done.
      Also it's a huge part of Recombination, which I think is the intended main use of the dust.

  • @HorizonVertigo
    @HorizonVertigo 4 місяці тому +6

    Good stuff here. One of the easy ways to see what value the game thinks of your item returns is to put them in the disenchanting window. It can be hard to know what the formula thinks of items compared to what we value sometimes.

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому +2

      That's a super clever way to gauge value!

  • @steinerdrei
    @steinerdrei 4 місяці тому +6

    The more currency when more types of crop send might be that there are diminishing returns per type of crop send, not by total crop send

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому +1

      This is definitely something I'll be testing

  • @sh3940
    @sh3940 4 місяці тому +8

    Port level doesnt exist, instead its based on your ship dock level. I know rhis because i saved up resources and went from lvl 5 to 10. I had barely done any shipping and the requested goods went from 300-1k, up to 50k-100k+ goods

    • @Dsfarblarwaggle
      @Dsfarblarwaggle  4 місяці тому +5

      Yep I agree, think a lot of people just got confused as to what was actually causing the favored goods requests to go up.

  • @DustinHarms
    @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому +12

    THANK YOU! Finally a decent video based on data with a real testing methodology. This also happens to exactly replicate my own testing and findings!
    I'd like to add/clear up that the Quota size is directly related to your Tavern level. Also, the gear you receive seems to be based on the level of your character.
    Essentially I look at it like this - it's very straightforward: You're sending crops which are basically emulating drops you'd get in the world. So every shipment is a dice roll, and just like you can get a lucky Divine Orb in the campaign, same goes for this. The weighting seems so similar to actual drops. No magic juju or conspiracy theory, it's literally just rolling the dice like you would in a map. Simple. People are making it out to be way more complicated.
    Honestly the amount of misinformation and "strategies" people are claiming is really bothering me. I'm usually a huge fan of PoE content creators and community, but with this topic I swear folks are so off-base. Everyone is so used to abusing the league mechanics and finding some crazy method to scale the rewards to oblivion, they can't seem to imagine that this league mechanic is actually a very straightforward, linearly-scaling, RNG-based system that gives you a bit of control over the type of things you get, but not really allowing you to go wild with it. It does exactly what's on the tin, and it seems that it's hard for people to accept that. So instead we've got ego's telling thousands of people that the other strategy is wrong, based on basically no evidence or methodological testing, just their own dumb luck. And then other people believing them and spreading the misinformation further. It's been super frustrating.
    GGG actually did a great job keeping the reigns on with this mechanic, and I love it. It's a great extra way to get *stuff* via a different way of playing, while pushing players into playing the core game as well. The only unfortunately confusing thing is the naming of shipment "value" which is probably throwing people off a ton. Value is only relevant to Risk, not really the rewards (other than the amounts you're sending of course). It's just so, so straightforward but people can't accept that. An argument could be made that value affects runes/tattoo payouts, but I'm not 100% on that yet.
    Anyway, thank you so much for putting the video together and doing the leg work testing this out properly. I've got a ton of data myself and it feels good to see a completely separate person coming to the same conclusions, instead of me trying to prove my findings in streamer's chats and then getting called wrong based on no evidence.
    Sorry for the essay. =)

  • @buggydust
    @buggydust 4 місяці тому

    thank you so much for doing thorough testing! it's great to see examples with actual numbers.

  • @alimy1119
    @alimy1119 4 місяці тому +1

    Thank you for your research and proper documentation, great vid

  • @yao76
    @yao76 4 місяці тому +4

    My peer review of your research paper: I'm gonna need some statistical analysis to determine if the difference in currencies was statistically significant. 😂

  • @TatoesNz
    @TatoesNz 4 місяці тому +1

    Awesome testing bro, great video

  • @TheEluminator
    @TheEluminator 4 місяці тому +2

    finally some data. thank you waggle

  • @maximusowo
    @maximusowo 4 місяці тому +1

    idk, filling quotas with 3.5mil each, returned several divines and one gave me a mirror shard. im getting divines and other rare stuff every day sending huge shipments, when i sent just smaller versions all the time, i never really got more then chaos orbs, maybe a exalted.

  • @max.lindgren
    @max.lindgren 4 місяці тому

    Very nicely put together, thanks!

  • @justinhowe3878
    @justinhowe3878 4 місяці тому

    Insane work. Well done.

  • @skiprydoo
    @skiprydoo 4 місяці тому +5

    Tell me your secrets Florida Man!

  • @69zirc
    @69zirc 4 місяці тому +5

    possible to test if amount of Bars affect mod tiers? I sent 10k of one type of bar and every single item had t1-4 mods. maybe it works like mod tier rating from last league

    • @Dsfarblarwaggle
      @Dsfarblarwaggle  4 місяці тому +10

      I think there is a good chance that this is true, probably won't really be getting around to testing bars stuff for a bit though, gear is a lot tougher to quantify than currency for recording data

    • @pr4zaVIDZ
      @pr4zaVIDZ 4 місяці тому +3

      Yeah I noticed as well when sending a bunch of bars the bases are better and mod tiers

    • @teitonii
      @teitonii 4 місяці тому +1

      ive been fishing pirates with really low value shipments, i do 22~ of each bar and get about 5 pieces of gear back that usually have 2 tier 1-2 and 3 tier 3-5s, the shipment gear return is lucky rolled no matter what

  • @MyEconomics101
    @MyEconomics101 4 місяці тому

    Thanks! My first shipment of a 'varied diet' of crops just went out.

  • @osh111
    @osh111 2 місяці тому

    Sooo, whate is the formula for workers would produce an even amount of crops at the same time? any idea?

  • @overshare7
    @overshare7 4 місяці тому +4

    The formula for the dust calculation that is in wiki "3x multi 8k dust" something tells me thats the only formula that shipping uses. For everything that's why u don't see any liniar proportion in anything. I propose to check the formula and use the multipliers of 1.5 and 2 dust in all type of goods. For dust use the 8.1k dust is plentiful and weight also the bonus of the ports so u don't have to send so much.

    • @c-tothefourth4879
      @c-tothefourth4879 4 місяці тому +2

      Nah you can tell it's not the same formula very easily. you get 2x shipping value at 55 dust and 3x value at 8000 dust, approximately. That's 145x more dust for 1.5x reward. Can clearly see that you do not need to send 145x more crops to get 1.5x rewards. You send 5x crops and get around 3x rewards.

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому +2

      Dust has no bearing on quota fulfillment at all. It is only a multiplier for the (probably badly-named) "Value" number that influences Risk. The only thing it may seem to help is getting more Runes/tattoos, but that's not 100% quite yet.

  • @niedroProg
    @niedroProg 4 місяці тому

    Somebody enlighten me, because I don't get it anymore - so the best option is to send all different crops with 5x times as many favoured as non-favoured (according to the spreadsheet)? I'm looking at realitvely consistent rare currency rewards (annuls, exalts, etc.), not expecting divines every shipment.

  • @mikepic
    @mikepic 4 місяці тому +1

    GGG really loves when we take risks, has anyone tested if thr danger bar has any effect on outcome?

    • @beefchampion2792
      @beefchampion2792 4 місяці тому

      They also havea history of not balancing risk with reward very well, so I wouldn't put up too much hope on this.

  • @MrHellweasel
    @MrHellweasel 4 місяці тому +1

    So what I gather from this is that we should fill priority shipments to make use of the bonus, and add a certain amout of each crop to get somewhat decent results from each run?

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому

      This would be a good simple strategy, yeah. Keeps things efficient as you're not wasting too many resources that aren't affected by quota bonus, but still getting the potential bonus from variety.

    • @Dsfarblarwaggle
      @Dsfarblarwaggle  4 місяці тому +2

      After doing a bit of messing around yesterday trying to find the sweet spot for rewards, this is kind of where I ended up yeah. While spamming small variety shipments might end up being best for divines per crop, doing less shipments of bigger size seems to be considerably better for runes, so things like 20k (or even more) of a favored crop + anywhere from 500-2k of the unfavored is where im currently at

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому

      @@Dsfarblarwaggle Great info, I'll try the same and see if I get the same results. =)

  • @ILikeGuns1992
    @ILikeGuns1992 4 місяці тому

    There is a lot of emphasis on quantity of currency but what matters more is quality - whether you get more Divines, Exalts, etc. etc. or not. Also sample size is very small for each test? I also did some testing and 10 ships of varied crops (2k each) weren't good.

    • @Dsfarblarwaggle
      @Dsfarblarwaggle  4 місяці тому

      Quantity vs Quality is what makes it really hard, and a lot more work, to figure out the optimal strategies for things like best divine orb efficiency. Which is why I mainly focused here on just the actual mechanics of the ships, which is easier to distinguish from only a few shipments

  • @FreeFallerrz
    @FreeFallerrz 4 місяці тому

    Just for what you're saying, I've actually been in the process of identifying the low cut off for certain currency, for example i am on shipment 20 of just 100 value JUST wheat. Early in my testing I also discovered variety over single crop.
    I am trying to assing currency to a value, so for example, i think most baseline currencies are like 50 in value.

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому

      My theory (just theory, hard to prove without literally thousands of shipments of data) is that it's similar to the weights of currency drops in the rest of the game. It definitely feels similar.

  • @jasonchiang251
    @jasonchiang251 4 місяці тому +5

    thanks for the sheet
    Garf

  • @drackoex
    @drackoex 4 місяці тому

    Shipping value I've noticed does increase frequency of higher runes like time and power. Divines I've noticed are more frequent as well at higher values

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому

      I think an argument could be made for the Runes/Tattoo output, but over 60 shipments total I've tested and taken data from, there seems to be no correlation at all to Divines and dust. In fact, two of the Divines I've gotten through shipment were using no dust at all.

  • @agrocreepers
    @agrocreepers 4 місяці тому

    You should see if completing orders has any effect on your shipments cause personally I think it gives you more and better options the more you complete but idk that might just be in my head

  • @skyrunner8333
    @skyrunner8333 4 місяці тому +1

    Does the number(or level) of crew affect the currency return ?

    • @Dsfarblarwaggle
      @Dsfarblarwaggle  4 місяці тому +2

      I don't think so, but honestly that's just an assumption didn't do any specific testing of that

  • @thomasrad5202
    @thomasrad5202 4 місяці тому +1

    how many crops I need to put before it is possible to get a divine? that's pretty much all anyone cares about

    • @MyNameIsSalo
      @MyNameIsSalo 4 місяці тому

      its completely random, i got some early ones with like 10k shipments, then i send out 1m shipments and get none

  • @bloodthirstytft7416
    @bloodthirstytft7416 4 місяці тому

    Hi thank you for the video I also have a gsheet for shipping with some tests on it. As far as I test I realized that we have diminishing returns for crops sent but each individual crops have its own diminishing returns so if you sent 1k each vs 5k one individual 1k each returns more currency count according to 5k individual one. I want to share this sheet with you but I think yt will delete link comments so maybe you have a way for it.

  • @CliseruGabriel
    @CliseruGabriel 4 місяці тому

    for currency we can do a scroll of wisdom normalization

  • @Katze822228
    @Katze822228 4 місяці тому

    a better method of finding a good shipping strategy would be to only count the currency you care about. It doesn't really mean much if you get a high number of currency items but most of them are transmutes, augments and armour scraps...

  • @YilmasRegin
    @YilmasRegin 4 місяці тому

    A few observations: 1) Does crew level matter ? Seems like the first ship is generally higher than the other two. 2) If 5x1k gives more than 1x5k crops, would the same apply to metals/ores ? 3) If dust doesn't matter, why is dust included in most shipments. Perhaps retesting without the dust, and screenshotting those, at the very least for the "proof" part :)

    • @YilmasRegin
      @YilmasRegin 4 місяці тому

      Note, I'm totally new to PoE, so keep that in mind.

  • @brokenclone-sq4zu
    @brokenclone-sq4zu 4 місяці тому +1

    Thanks for the information

  • @loopuleasa
    @loopuleasa 4 місяці тому +1

    Currency quality theory can be disproven as people got divines at low ship value. Ship value has heavy DR like dust

  • @hkgaming2842
    @hkgaming2842 4 місяці тому

    Can you say Something about how often you got commandeerd? I wonder if there is a trick to get commandeerd more often so i can get more gold from the pirates

  • @bartekwnuk2716
    @bartekwnuk2716 4 місяці тому

    Any updates on further testing? subbed for the data collection, great work btw : D

  • @Denisovan09
    @Denisovan09 4 місяці тому

    Do we upgrade the port or not???

  • @sHake2BeNiCe
    @sHake2BeNiCe 4 місяці тому

    what is a crop in that case? I know the translation to my language of the word but does he mean like "variaty of all things" or "Variaty of literally crops aka farming items wheat etc."?

  • @R_a_X
    @R_a_X 4 місяці тому

    TLDR for now: Send equal amounts of each crop to the closest port, up to however much you can sustain. Hit crop bonuses. Mix in bars for more runes. ????? Profit?

  • @kkeithf
    @kkeithf 4 місяці тому +1

    Good stuff thanks

  • @Southpaw17
    @Southpaw17 4 місяці тому

    So based on your research, my conclusions are:
    Each individual resource is tracked separately, and contributes to a different type of reward. Each resource has its own diminishing returns, also tracked separately. As a result, for a given shipment value, you want to maximize the variety of resources you're shipping to the port.

  • @thischannelisnotmine
    @thischannelisnotmine 4 місяці тому

    The league mechanic has quickly become a bit disappointing for something to focus solely on, i feel like i am just falling behind on gold constantly trying to maintain the workers pay while hiding new workes now that i finally got everything i wanted to max

  • @sf5028
    @sf5028 4 місяці тому +1

    Very helpful, ty

  • @Overninja1203
    @Overninja1203 4 місяці тому

    probably nothing but it's funny how you only get a divine in your screenshots when sending a non rounded number of crops :P

  • @andrii.pushkarov
    @andrii.pushkarov 4 місяці тому

    good job

  • @faburil
    @faburil 4 місяці тому

    Port chosed.

  • @nicholasfigueiredo3171
    @nicholasfigueiredo3171 4 місяці тому

    I mean I watched you video and doesn't appear to me at all that dust isn't affecting currency. The effect seem to be small but clearly better currency is coming in the more dust you send, just check the ammount of transmutations each one gets. They clearly get more rare but the ammount seems to be just like for shipment value very little dust does a lot(0 to 100 made a bigger difference than 100 to 100k) witch is similar to shipment value. I will further test the rarities later using in your own data(I hate collecting data myself).

  • @TimEnjoysGnocchis
    @TimEnjoysGnocchis 4 місяці тому

    This video seriously needs timestamps and a tl:dr at the end

    • @sh3940
      @sh3940 4 місяці тому

      Or he could just put subway surfers on the side to keep your ticktock fried ass brain satiated

    • @TimEnjoysGnocchis
      @TimEnjoysGnocchis 4 місяці тому

      @@sh3940 it aint that. I simply value my time.

  • @dustinwagner5902
    @dustinwagner5902 4 місяці тому +1

    I feel like one of the few who was like, yeah if I send ore and bars I get gear, if I send crops I get money.
    Like, it seemed so common sense to me haha
    Thanks for the video, nice seeing research behind it!

    • @wildcat31772
      @wildcat31772 4 місяці тому

      I haven't seen the entire video yet. But different ports also give different favored gear bases. Te' Onu = dex, Ngakanu = str, pondium = int, etc

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому

      Yeah it's mind-boggling some of the wild "strategies" that people have come up with touting that they are right, when the actual system is very simple.

    • @DustinHarms
      @DustinHarms 4 місяці тому

      @@wildcat31772 Yup, if you haven't seen it, there's a google sheet someone put together with data on exactly what each port will give based on what resources you send, and it's 100% accurate.

  • @blaiseaka7157
    @blaiseaka7157 4 місяці тому +3

    garf

  • @Scorptice
    @Scorptice 4 місяці тому

    Let's see if we ever see a cargo like the one they showed off on stream!

  • @algorithman2129
    @algorithman2129 4 місяці тому

    Thx

  • @vicooo4271
    @vicooo4271 4 місяці тому

    salute

  • @ofsoundmind28
    @ofsoundmind28 4 місяці тому

    W video

  • @Louis...............
    @Louis............... 4 місяці тому +5

    Dark mode sheet next time please wagglebabe

  • @randyyyball
    @randyyyball 4 місяці тому

    Pog

  • @roguethemachine3928
    @roguethemachine3928 4 місяці тому

    spreadsheet , it doesnt affect video well dust is a multiplier and a sum of 25k or a mix with dust of 25k is equivalent so dust does matter

  • @loopuleasa
    @loopuleasa 4 місяці тому

    Port favor levelling is actually global ports levelling, it changes your ENTIRE reputation with all ports, and you don't even need to complete quests, just ship a lot

  • @PROdotes
    @PROdotes 4 місяці тому

    Mathematically speaking... if port distance doesn't affect returns, then it's irrelevant where you send a shipment...
    If one port takes 40 minutes, and another 200 minutes, you would think sending to the 40 minute one is better... but the amount you send is limited by the time you farmed, so the amount of crops and ores you farm in 200 minutes will be 5 times as high as the amount you farm in 40 minutes, so the end result of the shipments would be the same in that case...
    but that also means, when you go to bed, you should also send to the close ports, cause the far away ones will just cost you more gold over night... and because of that, I feel they should have at least a little bit of a multiplier in them...
    even if the math on that wouldn't add up...
    Now the only question is... why would I send out 3 ships instead of 1... cause it will just cost me more to send out 3 shipments of 1000 crop each.... instead of 1 shipment of 3000 crops each... unless the risk is over 0...

    • @teitonii
      @teitonii 4 місяці тому

      you need some sleep or to sober up bro. 3 ships with 1k all will give way way more loot than one ship of 3k, thats like half the video

    • @PROdotes
      @PROdotes 4 місяці тому

      @@teitonii It's hard to say with a sample size of 1, but if you look at the images at 9m, i would argue that the currency in the 300k is better then the one in the 100k one... we would need 100s of shipments to draw a proper conclusion...