Asteroid Impact In 2032 - What Are The Chances? What Can We Do?
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- Опубліковано 6 лют 2025
- My take on Asteroid 2024 YR4, which currently has a 2.3% chance of colliding with the Earth in 2032, an event that's likely comparable to a multi megaton nuclear weapon. The odds are still good that it'll miss, but the chances may look worse before they get better, and there's a real chance we can't honestly know the answer by April when it gets too faint to observe until 2028.
But this won't be the end of the world, and might be an opportunity to put the capabilities of DART into real world use.
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![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Now we need to figure out if it would be easier to teach astronauts how to drill or teach oil drillers how to astronaut.
Nah, you only need the Pilots to know how to Astronaut; Roughnecks will just hold their Breath and survive/thrive due to sheer Stubbornness.
@@ligmasack9038I didn’t hear no bell!
I also can’t hear, air has left my lungs and ears.
I don’t know how I’m speaking.
Nah. Teach miners how to Astronaut. They're better at getting to the useful solid stuff, where the Drillers are only getting to where there's a fluid under pressure.
Man this reference is fading into time, thanks for keeping it going
Maybe the problem is we make things seem harder than they are
Asteroids are natures way of asking "how's your space program coming?"
The Kerbals had a better one than we do right now
The dinosaurs really git bonked by an asteroid and were like "F*** it we're putting all our evolution points on intelligence so we can get of this rock and not get wiped like last time".
@@asandax6 Not enough points on Intelligence, unfortunately
@@dx-ek4vr Yeah... we're on our way to wiping out ourselves first before anything external gets us.
@@dx-ek4vr Well there weren't many dinosaurs that survived so it figures there weren't that much points but at least it was enough to get us to the point of escaping this rocks gravity even if it's for a brief time.
I did not, in fact, consume any information about this in the news. I saw lots of headlines, but I said to myself "there's no way these knobs explain it as well as Scott does."
knobs 😁
@@cube2fox Scott 😁
GeologyHub did a decent job at explaining the probabilities although light on the implications on how orbital mechanics can be influenced as well as the observational limitations. In all scott did a better job but GH was a nice second in my rankings.
Same lol
Most do good job but people never pay attention to the details on the chances and just remember the headline, then same people complain the headlines are "misleading" and media is feeding/wanting hysteria.
As an Australian I do appreciate the fact that this asteroid is not going to be __yet__ another bloody thing trying to kill us
Fr
Everything else is😂
give it enough time.. also, if no one else will raise their hands where to dump it, I'm sure there are some on our continent that are happy to offer the outback as a dump ground, if that idea with the nuclear waste falls through.
You mean, like Skylab? Can't wait to see where the ISS finally comes to earth. 😂
@@cycoholic The Australian government did not volunteer to receive Skylab. In fact, they fined NASA for illegal dumping. NASA has refused to pay. 😂
An asteroid impact sounds like something that might reduce house prices in my area.
Washington DC needs more drinking water. How about getting it from Lake Baltimore?
rather the exact opposite. less houses = more demand = $$$. look at the L.A. fires aftermath.
It will defiantly impact land prices.
Well, it might also reduce houses in your area...
@bensc
And fewer houses would mean that prices go up...
2032 is an election year in the US. Maybe the asteroid will win this time
Wait your turn USA, this one is running for Venezuela, Africa, and India. XD
Candidate Space Rock would be a better use of my vote for sure.
2024 YR4 "KFC AMERICAN FREEDOM ROCK"
Maybe the billionaires will all be living on Mars by then
don't be silly; US already had its last election 😉
The crater in Arizona was about 10 megatons in tnt equivalent, so if it does land, we will have quite the tourist attraction.
Tom Hanks in 2032: “The new Grand Canyon - coming this weekend!”
We can pre-build a visitor's center right at the edge.
@@riparianlife97701 No, the asteroid will pick the visitor center for us. We just have to hope it's a good one.
If it lands somewhere that rains regularly, it'll soon become Crater Lake.
@@riparianlife97701 this worked in Arizona :)
14:28: Or didn't fly safe... Ramming speed!!
RAMMING SPEED 🫡
“What do we do?”
“We die.”
11:13 I would definitely be someone that would want to be in the area to watch.
You would be the one person I'd expect to chase an asteroid Cody lol
Hi Cody!
I'll sign up for that too - a once-in-a-lifetime experience, maybe also a last-in-a-lifetime experience. Exciting!
Watch? ...... I wanna catch it! Seems like a fairly grandiose and painless exit from the madness of this world right now.
I bet styropyro would join you :D
Petition to rename 2024YR4 to Presidential Election: It swings by every four years with a small chance of creating an international incident.
Asteroid "Swing Vote"
@@Merecir If Egg prices get too high, the Asteroid will crash into us
I WISH there was only a 2.9 % of there being a disastrous international incident. I put it at 90%. That guy is just getting started.
For which country?
@@donjones4719 Trump is doing a great job; ended one war even before he took office & Russia/Ukraine is next this summer
This could make a great film, rival countries space programs sabotaging each other to prevent the asteroid hitting their territory and then plot twist... the asteroid is analysed on the 2029 fly past and is found to contain billions of dollars in gold and everyone switches to desperately trying to direct it to their own territory to claim it.
I believe it's already a movie. edit. Don't Look Up is the title, if anyone's interested.
For All Mankind but crazier
@@ruskiwaffle1991 I've only seen the scene where the sea dragon rocket emerges from the water. Most epic shit. Is the whole show worth watching?
@potatosalad68 haven't watched since S4 came out but the technology jump from season 2 to 3 is crazy
deep impact was about staffing congress which is in the air at 2025.. but 🎉
I didn't expect the real-life crossover between Idiocracy and Don't Look Up. Just wait to discover that the asteroid is full of rare earth minerals!
After the bird flu pandemic... Earth could benefit from a good detox.
Copied comment
Science denial is already a real factor. Space denial also, so asteroid denial is a certainty.
What if it's full of NFTs or crypto?
They're all very rich in rare earth minerals and previous metals. Earth has a strong gravity field so almost all of the heavy shiny stuff sank into the core. But asteroids kept the original more uniform composition and so they are much richer in gold, platinum etc... and all sorts of good stuff like cobalt. Asteroid impact sites can actually be intersting places to mine.
Finally something to look forward to
No shit 🥂
2.3% chance? Those are rookie numbers, we gotta pump those number up.
Be careful what you wish for
I love this community
@@alanblyde8502 I'm a millennial. I can't help it.
Scott, your videos do more to help people understand science than pretty much any other science or “space” educator prior. Others before you worked on projects or wrote books or papers but you do it for fun and for free and have a full time job on top of it all. You are seriously doing more for man (no pun intended) than you could ever know. We all thank you greatly!
The asteroid knows where it is because it knows where it isn't.
If a rock has consciousness in some way, does that make an asteroid a pile of consciousnesses, like an ancient proto echo of a Borg Hivemind Collective? Oh wait, sorry, residual Astrum thoughts going on here. LOL
By subtracting where it is from where it isn't, or where it isn't from where it is (whichever is greater).
@@ikschrijflangenamen It obtains a difference, or deviation.
It obtains a difference, or deviation to generate corrective commands to drive the asteroid from a position where it is, to a position where it isn't, and arriving at a position that it wasn't, it now is.
the asteroid don't know shish. It's as dumb as a pile of rocks, tho it is not a pile of rocks.
Just put that on my calendar so I won't forget.
Got to love a Scott Manley video when I’m bored at 3am
Ur first comment by 3 seconds
8am gift here
Even better when you wake up at 3am for no known reason.
Or sick and can't sleep
Same
imagine a bunch of countries just secretly deciding to send their own mission to "nudge" it a bit and don't tell any one. or one country launching a mission, another not being happy about it and launching another mission. We'll end up pummelling that things until nobody has any idea where it's going to hit.
After 4 or 5 hits, it might break up anyhow and hit everyone involved.
You can't just launch a rocket into space without every nuclear superpower seeing it, because that's precisely how early alert systems work.
it's not possible to "secretly" launch a deep space mission in 2025. You wouldn't be able to even hide it from amateur astronomers, let alone from other governments..
@@okletmesignup Even if a launch is easily seen and tracked, the thing launched is more hard to control.
There is dozens of satellites with strange behaviors from China, Russia, the US (hello X37B), and no one can do anything about it.
@@okletmesignup Not telling anybody you're launching a rocket is exactly how you end up with an angry message and possible a very spicy rock that goes boom.
even if we don't get a good measure on its orbit, it'll probably still be a good idea to prepare a potential DART style mission to be ready in 2028.
Or hell just start filling the silos with them now that we know we have the technology. You never know when you might need one.
Asteroids are taking revenge for the DART mission.
Missed opportunity to call it "The power of the Dart side". Great video as always!
People on coastlines and low lying islands may argue with you that hitting the ocean is "fine".
Exactly. It is going to create a gigantic tsunami, and if it hits a relatively shallow area, it may punch a hole in the crust, making enormous volumes of magma hit the ocean.. I don't like the sound of that..
Yeah, no way that if it hits in the Atlantic and its on the bigger side of the estimates that South America, Africa, and even the USA are gonna feel that one.
@Mountain-Man-3000, not sure why anyone would "think" that if it hits the ocean it'd be fine. Also the angle of impact is important. We've seen the death/destruction earthquakes can create not only from falling debris but tsunamis and something impacting the ocean at thousands of meters/miles per hour.... It definitely wouldn't be like, "...skipping a rock across the pond...." Interestingly enough, the footage at the beginning, it literally looked like a "bullet"....
@@zenithperigee7442
Depends on where in the water it bit. Deep water may mean it ultimately doesn't do to much. Earthquakes can cause massive tsunami because of the large area of crust uplift. This asteroid would be a comparatively small localized event. Sure it would make some kind of tsunami but it wouldn't be anything like an earthquakes power (such as the recent Japanese one in 2011). The Japanese earthquake was about 500 megatons in energy whereas this localized hit could be up to 40 megatons of power. Big difference to the energy transfered to water from a direct impact.
Don't worry... Bruce Willis will save us!
oh, forget about that ...
Now we just need to get one of the shuttles, and improve their SRBs hahahahahha
nahhh just dont look up
I don't know who Bruce Will is🤔
🤪@@soldaat001
There’s literally a polymarket prediction market in this. You can bet on it.
Worth a Tenner? Thing would probably land on my Bookie`s head so he couldn`t pay out.
@@milamber82😂
Is there an option for it misses and hits us on the next orbit? That's probably the most likely scenario if it hits.
@ they have you betting on the cumulative prediction
@@milamber82 i mean if you have any information probably go for it (you just need crypto and a vpn)
Love your videos, great quality, and love that you know a lot about what your talking about. Thank you for your great content, and love your vids at 2 am.
great video! a lot of informations in a clear and concise format. I didn’t know your channel. immediate subscription !
I want to re-emphasize: talking about volume means it's the CUBE of the radius, not the square.
i believe he was talking about how we obtained the radius through reflectivity which is a function of surface area, thus squared.
@@krumuvecis 8:20 no. He explains why the radius is so uncertain, then says the mass is squared when in fact it is cubic (volume of a perfect sphere is (4÷3)π×radius³).
@@krumuvecis"40 to 90 meters across" ... "A factor of two".
@@krumuvecisI understand "a cross" as the diameter (-ish). It wasn't given in square-meters.
@ could be. He was talking about the reflectivity sometime at that point, so i figured it must be about reflectivity. Didn't rewind the video to check though
You can guarantee it’ll hit my car just as i’ve finished polishing it
Thanks for an excellent no-nonsense primer on the orbital dynamics of Earth crossing asteroids. As you said, the probability of an Earth impact in 2032 will most likely go to zero with further observations, but if it doesn't it would provide the first true test of our capability of asteroid diversion, as well as a whole host of geopolitical and risk mitigation issues. If the mass turns out to be near the upper end of estimates, it could be a true big city killer if we were unlucky enough to have it come down in the wrong place... one could only imagine the geopolitical implications of attempting to divert the asteroid but getting it wrong and inadvertently destroying a city in the process.
The probability of hitting a big city maybe will raise in the same way as for a hit in general, and then with better observations likely drop to zero. Same argument, cities are small compared to the real estate in the projected target area.
The slight orbit change idea is an awesome premise for a film. Not having enough time or tech to deflect it completely but the international chaos of choosing where to move that impact zone.
I live in India, and realising that the path roughly flew over where I live, almost gave me existential dreads! 😅
Someone get this guy a barber, stat.
Bro 😂
we're cooked 😟
Honestly speaking, this only matters even a bit, if the Earth happens to be in the asteroid's path. Otherwise, it would just be that classic suspense story, when the asteroid passes millions of km above the Earth..
oh man.. guys, this is just an insignificant piece of tumbling rock ^^ lol
The ad break at 7:50 right after “but maybe it isn’t” was diabolical lol
You still see ads on UA-cam? lol
We are gonna get climate armageddon AND an asteroid impact? Damn, i really was born at the right time in history!
If God truly wanted us gone that bad, he would have let Kamala win. Our future looks brighter than it has in years
I CAN SEE IT ALL
@PBRRoughStockRanch Your cope is strong padawan. If you truly weren't worried you'd just let it be.
The climate Armageddon you get when the asteroid hits the earth. Not before. 😂
Yeahhh baby! Independence Day roof top end of the world party!!
Great breakdown Scott, thank you so much 🏍️🇨🇦
In 2028 will be a great opportunity to approach it with a spacecraft, since it will be very close, even with something that could alter its trajectory.
Hence, it would be super useful now to have the most precise measurement, so we could know well enough if we should do that in 2028. Then it might be ready till that time.
Yeah and there's also a chance that it only flies past our planet and still we would have a super exciting scientific opportunity to study an asteroid even if it's not threatening us.
If SpaceX nudge it off course and save earth, Elon will have truly owned the libs.
Note that the impact zone only covers poor nations. NASA under Trump wouldn't do shit. The only wealthy nation in that area is France, but French New Guinea is not densely populated. I am pretty sure France will conclude that evacuating and rebuilding will be cheaper.
It all depends on India, but three years is too short, and I don't think the other nations will be willing to help India build such tech. It might be pocket money for USA, but unless it is confirmed to strike the nation, the expense is not really worth it for India.
@@adorp will you eat your phone if Trump does allocate the funds for it though?
@@CraftYourDreamLB59 if it's a fly by, then it's our job to land as much research equipment on it as possible. You're having Voyager 2.0 opportunity fly right by you
I missed your last video til yesterday. 2 in a row!!
🍻 from 🇨🇦 👊🏻
Very useful. I've just got to that time of life when working out retirement finances requires estimating how long I expect to live. So, seven years then. Cheers.
My term life insurance expires right before then, so that's a real drag
And if you're sick of living by then (or don't want to live during a nuclear winter) you can host a livestream collision channel.
Thanks Scott, lets hope that it quickly goes to 0 chances of hitting. But as you said, there will be another time in the near or further future that this one or another one will be on a collision course with Earth, hopefully this will speed up research with DART and other methods.
10:27 that’s a lot of land… land with very densely populated areas, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and scarier of all, India. This could be absolutely devastating if it hits!
The lucky ones will be in the impact zone. The aftermath and chaos it causes would be much worse
@@auntykriesti agree. There are 2nd , 3rd and even 4rth level concequences. The debris thrown up by the impact would go up into the higher atmosphere/stratosphere causing dimming of the sky over a large area. This could cause changing weather paterns / percipitation and lower light level. Which in turn would lower averidge temperature ( similar to a nuclear winter) and that could cause failed farming crops. Which in turn could cause famine.
It could also make flying impossible for as long as the dust remains in the higher levels of the sky. Jet engines don't do well in dusty air.
Such an impact would be catastrophic for the entire world.
It would pass but how long might that take? I have no idea @@jfv65
Or not.
@@jfv65 1-40 Mt estimated energy isn’t anywhere close to enough to cause regional damage let alone a nuclear winter
Waiting for someone to suggest we intentionally make it hit earth (in the ocean) so we can mine it for minerals and sell souvenirs
On the other hand, the tsunami from the impact could potentially be more devastating than a land impact, but also maybe not…I’m not about to do the math lol
I guess there is no chance of that, regardless of the impact point. Crates are circles because the impactor literally evaporates, causing this massive explosion.
Barringer crater is named this because a guy purchased the ground to dig up the iron core of the meteorite. Not successful.
Wasn't this part of the plot of Don't Look Up?
"Oh, it would make a GREAT GREAT Atlantic Riviera opportunity if it landed there! And think of all those minerals! We must get ownership of it. It will be worth billions and billions of dollars. And we will make the other countries pay, if they move it to cause tsunami damage on American beaches! They are the greatest beaches."
So what you're saying is 'if we all co-operate globally we'll be fine'. Oh dear...😂
Yeah, exactly. Humanity is currently unraveling day by day since Jan 20.
@@Feintgames , actually it would've continued on it's downward spiral if the cackling Commie would've been "installed" like the "criminal reanimated corpse" was in 2020. "I ain't gunna pardon my boy, the Jury was fair!" Only to pardon him dating back TEN YEARS for "crimes he committed or crimes we don't even know he committed" 3 days before he was to be sentenced claiming "His trial was totally political!!" Said the man who weaponized the DOJ and criminally colluded with local state AG's to attempt to prosecute a political opponent for crimes he didn't commit. Then decides to pardon his entire criminal family during his last "20 minutes in Office" (The thing Democrats and their media propagandists worried Trump would do in his first term!) whilst Trump is giving his inaugural speech. And now they cry about the EXPOSURE of their criminal waste of American taxpayer resources across the world as being "A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS!!" and how they're gonna "FIGHT IN THE STREETS!!" Talk about "dictators" and "insurrectionists."🙄
What will actually happen is the US and maybe Europe will handle it and the rest of the world will benefit, as usual, and then go right back to bashing the US and EU, as usual.
We should be grabbing these resource piles and parking them in a La Grange point to be mined.
When I see Scott Manley has posted a video about a potential asteroid impact, my slight concern circuit is activated.
I have became smarter after watching this! 😮.. it happens rarely nowdays.. Thank you! Subed! 👍
At time point 8:30 you say the increase in diameter would square the volume. Wouldn't it CUBE the volume?
That's true, but also, we measure area, not diameter when using albedo
@@timonix2they measure albedo to figure out the diameter. "Across". 40 to 90 meters was given, but square meters (1600 to 89000 m²). So I think he misspoke or at least was easy to misunderstand.
@@timonix2 Even then it is wrong. The mass and volume is not the area squared, that exponent would be 1.5
@@timonix2 He used the fact to explain how the mass increases to a much greater extent than the diameter. Mass is proportional to the cube.
Whether it hits Earth or not it's gonna be close enough to study. I wouldn't be surprised if several missions pop up to take a look at it as it comes in. It might even be possible to nudge it into an orbit with earth itself and have a cute little second moon to do science on
Night shift crew! Defending the Earth from asteroids and such at 3am Eastern!
Awesome video. Answered two questions (at least) of mine about possibly changing it's orbit by itself or by DART.
Sounds like a golden opportunity to take some samples!
Imagine if that mission accidentally nudges the rock into the keyhole to hit Earth in another 4 years. :D
Threats from interplanetary rocks sure are both terrifying and fascinating at the same time, since obviously it could be just another rock that flies past us or it could come close enough that it has dramatic consequences on Earth, but in the middle of that margin of error we have no clue, it's frustrating! Yet there's a possibility that it both has a chance to hit us and we would have the capability to stop this from happening, which is even more amazing. Worst case scenario, everyone dismisses it and we get another Tunguska-like event, so let's not get overly confident it's not gonna happen though also not overly confident it's gonna happen. Again, that's puzzling.
This could be the real test for DART. For it to work, we must know the orbit very well. We also need to know the composition of the object. We would not want to move a metal asteroid away from Earth. Such near Earth objects are perfect candidates for our first mining efforts.
Velocity matching is the problem, and likely a difficult one to solve especially on very close approach. There's basically no way we can do it with fuel, everything we've ever made that goes very fast has always been gravity assisted in some way, so figuring out a matching maneuver for this could be very complicated to impossible to do in the required time frame. Intercepts will likely continue to be a matter of putting something in its path to run over resulting in various ranges of catastrophic impact or very complicated maneuvers involving flybys to one or more solar system objects to pick up speed. It's aphelion is the best place for a rendezvous, where its relative velocity is low, but that's way out in its orbit. It's actually a very tough problem to solve if you want to do anything other than put something in its path for it to run over.
It'll be something to tell the grandchildren... oh, hang on....
@Kieran_McNally, yea that's assuming too if "Apophis" doesn't alter course in some way and strike first! Prediction models are just that, predictions and sometimes they work out precisely or nearly as such but we know that there are no "absolute guarantees!" That's evidenced in something as ordinary as everyday weather forecast "predictions", pretty darn accurate but not guaranteed.
This is only the second source I have seen on this and arguably the better one I have seen. I have been saying for 20 years this is something that humanity has to master. We should take this opportunity to create the infrastructure and the organization that will be used for much larger planet killers. Think of this as preparation and rehearsal. It's an opportunity, not a disaster.
If you want to see the lack of proactive countermeasures to inevitable disasters, don’t do a deep dive on CME’s.
@@Accurize2 The sad part is that proactive countermeasures to CMEs are not that expensive. In this world, only the cheapest crap is used.
We have NASA DART so far. It was tested some years ago, 2022(googled it).
Man, i wish this was real. A job fit for UN to do. But in our real world it will be like "Don't look up" but less comedic.
Don't be a tourist to somewhere under an imminent incoming asteroid.
Santa's coming in hot that year!
GDAY ITS SCOTT MANNNNNNNNNLEEEEEEE HEREEEEEE
I'm Scottish, not Australian
Someone call Aerosmith!
Love your explanations!
Quite a relevant point about the potential for causing an international incident if it is predicted to hit and plans are enacted to adjust the orbit. There are enough space capable countries along that latitude path (or with an interest in it) who may or may not want any adjustment to occur.
The evacuation of millions of people is another big issue, especially if the precise impact area is not known early enough. Where will they go and where will they stay after? Who will have enough resources to house them?
I must preface my next comment with the fact that i do not want people to be hurt by this event, but seeing such a tremendously catastrophic and powerful event would be absolutely awesome in the biblical sense. Just being able to witness something so astronomically intense would be a sight to behold.
The main lesson is we need to keep investing more and more into detection technology.
I keenly await your next episode on this subject. Thank you.
7:55 I was wondering how any of these compare to the Chicxulub asteroid. Turns out it was about 10 kilometers or 100 times bigger than the upper estimate of 2024YR4.
If you were watching this from a computer screen, the asteroid would have been about 20 meters in diameter in that graph
@julle4017 Yeah this is a regional asteroid, not a world climate affecting asteroid.
Thanks - that's useful...
Just measured and that would not fit on my screen.
And about 1 million times the volume of this one
It's good to see that even the cosmos follows our rule that requires everything that happens every four years must happen on the same year.
We learned from the DART mission that using an impacter can change an object’s orbit appreciably- BUT it also creates an enormous, long-lived debris field around the object, and if the earth was to pass through that debris field it’s going to create problems of its own; aside from an epic meteor shower, there’s a good chance it could wipe out a lot of satellites.
Meteor showers and loss of satellites seems..... reasonable..... you know, if we avoid extinction.
@@KCM25NJLThe asteroid is about on par with the 2013 Russia meteor, maybe a little bigger. It can cause local damage but it's not an extinction level threat.
@@KCM25NJLAlthough this specific asteroid is more of a “moderate to large nuke” blast rather than a “causes a new ice age” blast, meaning this doesn’t really apply that much.
That said, the tradeoff may apply to a future, much larger threat…
Thanks Scott for your excellent report here on the information we have now.
The benchmark of good science assessment.
What kind of tsunami can an object like this cause?
Good point! Maybe a water impact would be far worse than a direct hit on a populated area.
the wet kind
Well, we're talking about energy levels equivalent to a decent size nuke... so probably not much. I mean, we've tested actual nuclear weapons that way - Castle Bravo was a 15MT blast at sea-level - but they've had little effect beyond the immediate area.
considering that the heat of the asteroid will immediately evaporate a lot of the water it hits, the mass of displaced water is as mentioned by Simon probably comparable to a nuke. No Tsunami.
@ Ah OK that's reassuring then. But what about momentum? Energy release aside, surely an asteroid impact will create a wave because of conservation of momentum. A nuke doesn't have that.
Hi Scott!
Fly safe! (Even if it might not matter.)
I like how it essentially ends with “we all might die in 7 years. ”
Hardly, the maximal impact is less powerful than Tsar Bomba - it's something we want to keep a very close eye on but this isn't a planet killer level threat
Worry for the people of Mumbai and Lagos. Almost nobody else has to worry.
@@bosstowndynamics5488 K… “we all in the affected area might die in 7 years
We all die eventually.
Life consists of two dates with a line in between. What matters is what YOU do with the line.
@@OtherTheDave Sure but we'll have advance warning by then and can move in the 2% probability that it does happen. It's a big deal but it's not planet killer scale, this is a very manageable problem and not worthy of the same level of existential dread that the various other, much less controllable, disasters get
I don't know where it will hit but I know that the memes will be on FIRE!
Oh it comes by in 2028? Well that sounds like a perfect time to attach a little engine to it! Give it a tiny boost over time for a year or two or just when it's out at its apogee, and the problem ceases to exist at all...
Velocity matching may be a problem though might be better to stick something in it's way for it to run over.
Ah let it hit us.
Didn't you notice? It is rotating fast enough to eject any object on the surface by centrifugal force. "Attaching" does not work, not even a mission to touch in Bennu style.
That is one reason why the idea of a gravity tractor came up, this would be appropriate here.
@@intotron6708 an impactor is still the easiest option and one that has been tested.
Or launch a mission to study it.
With a prototype Project Orion nuclear pulse unit in the trunk. Just in case.
Ow - Fine Ending Tune - Streams Well. Kudos
If Chump and Musky doesn’t kill us, this might!
You break this down so good! Thank you for helping me to understand. Your 100% right one day it won't be zero and we will need a global plan to address this. Not an American plan or Chinese plan... but a global response. Let's hope we aren't all doomed.
Yeah, if Uganda doesn't help, the US is screwed...
A youtube channel for asteroid chasing a 1-40 megaton impact? Better be a live stream...
An impact would certainly take our minds off of social media for a few minutes.
people already are lining up to broadcast that live.. so actually the opposite
@@joansparky4439 It's all fun until somebody puts out an eye. After the impact, we'll see just how much life is worth. Can you even imagine we'd want to live stream the end of our lives as we know them? I guess if we could build the restaurant at the end of the universe really fast...
@@FullFrontalNerdity-e3z It's not a world ending asteroid, chill. This is more like a really big volcano eruption, or big earthquake, except it can happen anywhere
Casually see the path of the potential asteroid impact at 10:29 go quite literally to where I live, huh seems like I will be moving somewhere else on Dec 2032 lol.
You might not want to wait till the last minute; property values could drop sharply.
Why the worries? A strategic nukexlosion in your backyard is no problem, right? right???
Selling your house in 2031: "So why are you moving?" "No reason...."
A nice trip to Iceland would put you quite far from the impact :D
Let it impact. Let it bring a bigger one along too
How exactly do they compute the probabilities? Do they assume that there is some kind of distribution over orbits compatible with observations? What kind of distribution? Is it uniform in velocity? spatial positions?
I assume it has something to do with Estimation Theory. There's a certain amount of measurement and model error, and within that error there's a 2% likelihood that the true trajectory collides with the Earth.
The impression I got from Scott's description is they create a probability space based on their measurements and the error margin and project Earth's orbit through that space, and right now Earth's orbit occupies about 2% of future potential locations for that asteroid. Observations that constrain the orbit in a way that remove possible future orbits that Earth won't pass through increase the apparent probability of an impact, but if that space can be narrowed enough and we constrain it to a path where it doesn't strike Earth then the probability will suddenly be 0 as Scott said.
@@bosstowndynamics5488 Thanks, I get the general idea but it can't be just 2% of possible locations because different orbits impact at different times. So you have to have some kind of distribution over orbits and that's what I'm wondering how they do it. I mean it's not obvious to me what the natural way to do that is. Do you say that 2% of the values for the radius and eccentricity of the elipse result in an impact? 2% of the possible masses and speeds result in an impact? What? Because how you do that is going to have a significant impact on probabilities.
@@petergerdes1094 Probably uses an Extended/Unscented Kalman Filter or Particle Filter, or maybe even some continuous equivalent, to propagate measurement errors forwards in time. These filters can handle non-Gaussian errors and nonlinear state updates handily.
@petergerdes1094 I imagine it gets into some complex modelling, probably involving more than 3 dimensions (to incorporate time and probability since the probability isn't uniform) but that's well beyond my skill level to speak with any certainty on
If it has a metal composition It'd be awesome if we could send a bunch of mining and scientific equipment to it and start using it to start up a space resource-extraction industry. Very important step towards having self-sufficient space infrastructure in my opinion.
Watch the president and SpaceX secretly arrange for a redirect mission to push the orbit to target the Panama Canal because he thinks it'll open up a sea lane.
If only we had some billionaire that is spending huge resources on reliable, reusable rockets.
I don't think either reusability or private unelected individuals deciding who shall live is the point here.
If Scott Manley is worried then it's a very serious serious problem.
serious^2, oh no.
The most important video on UA-cam today.
I can see it now, competing space missions that all try to nudge the asteroid into different directions
If clear thinking and not budget cutting ✂️ know it alls are allowed to act. If not, there going seriously exciting news day for some people.
12:51 High chance, yeah. Shi-
Thanks Scott! 🙂😎❤
Let it hit. The planet needs a reset.
It is a bit comforting knowing we're detecting so many asteroids of such a relatively small size this far in advance. With SpaceX's development of Starship, and the potential ability to refuel it in orbit, I think we would be in a really good position to intercept it and redirect it (or break it into pieces) in time for 2032.
At 8:29, isn't it cubic when going from a diameter to a volume?
Omg, an outro that doesn’t deafen me every time!!!
Any chance we can move the impact date up a few years? Say, to 2025? I'm ready.
No matter what change in velocity you make at a point, the orbit still goes through that point. So if we want to put this thing in an orbit that doesn't intersect Earth's orbit, we need to do so when it's far away from Earth. The most efficient way of doing that, presumably, would be to change its orbit while it's near Earth, but in a way that makes it come near one of the other planets when it's far from Earth, so that the gravitational interaction makes the change we actually want. Or if we could do it precisely enough, we could make it collide with another asteroid when it's far from Earth.
We should try to capture it in 4 years when it comes by or knock it in a different direction. Or, try to capture it in 2032. Plenty of time to come up with something. My vote is to capture it to study and mine the goodies out of it. The operation should be named in a pirate theme.
Is that a don't look up reference
@ What do you mean?
Yeah, I don't think we have the technology yet to slow it down to that level, not to mention to position it in a langrange point or something.
@ In a way, we do have the technology. Depending on how big the asteroid is, land some small boosters that are able to anchor themselves onto the surface in several positions around it and fire their engines that are able to gimbal. This could slow it down and move it around.
I hope we see it fly bye. So beautiful.
May it inspire us to love
In this trolley problem, we all know they would push it west into Central Africa. Let's not even pretend otherwise.
China and India are both nuclear armed, they wouldn't direct this asteroid towards each other.
But neither of them would have a significant issue or protest about pushing it west into the Indian Ocean or Central Africa.
Or the USA
@@deltalima6703Wrong, the USA will push it away from all of Earth 🌎.
@deltalima6703 no one is gonna aim an asteroid at the US unless they want the totality of our nuclear arsenal headed for their grandma's house.
with how much china's been investing in trade routes along the bottom of asia and north africa, I don't think they'd be too happy with it hitting africa either.
What about looking back in time along the asteroids orbit? It would be wild to know how close it was able to come on previous orbits before we detected it.
Are we sure it’s not Elon’s Roadster again🙂
yes we are, that one is currently behind the Sun.
Another great example of why we should reject legacy media and go straight to the source,
People who live and breathe the subject matter,
Yeah but because who needs journalism when anyone can upload a UA-cam vid. Not saying Manley isn't doing a great job. But journalism is a different thing.
@ pretty corrupted thing, you get a spin or an omission on everything, sure most people aren’t going to seek out the best and brightest for every topic but relying on the media is Incomprehensible to anyone who cares about Facts not narratives
Can you do a follow-up video on all of these satellites we’ve been launching for the past few decades to aid in “early” detection and observation of these? Has any satellite actually played a role in this object yet, or is it entirely conventional earth-based observation?
Crikey, blast it to smithereens, into tiny fragments that can burn up as the bits n pieces come back around and into our atmosphere .
Surely a no brainer.
Great vid much appreciated 👍😎
"Blast it" with what exactly?
@@sendintheclowns7305 well one option would be to replace the stonehenge with the stonehenge STN but NASA still hasnt gotten back to me on that one
A cloud of smaller objects would have its own problems - we could lose a LOT of satellites, and even small objects still dump heat into the atmosphere as they burn up. Best option in my opinion would be to attack a motor to it and push it away gently over time.
@@sendintheclowns7305 The answer to that is always lasers! 😂