The US economy is inflated. In terms of PPP(Purchasing Power Parity) China is ahead. Everything costs 3 to 5 times more in the US. People pay more for everything in the US, more for vehicles, more for medical care, more for food, etc.
I think USgovt. is very smart if makes inflation up to 100% inflation. The USdebt will reduce from 34 trillions to 17 trillions. That's easy to pay off USdebt.
@@prakorngirodkunkid7877 That puts pressure on the US population. Home prices going up isn't good, it makes property taxes and homeowner's insurance go up.
@Ace1000ks19751982 I think:1.the rich lost 1/2 assets 2.the poor gain 1/2debt 3.working people get balance by increase salary. Few rich people still have money/ lot of poor easy to pay off debt/worker can balance cost of living.
US lower education wages has been stagnating since 1970s. US high education wages rocketed. thanks to globalization and technology. If you go to Walmart and see inexpensive Chinese stuff - think why...; understanding of how econ works is flawed.
think why all of the world, including highest paid europeans move to live to USA... USA population grows at around 1-3% yearly... yet chinese country and ruzzians are losing people.
Not only that. The US killed Toshiba’s semiconductor business by sanctioning its export to US companies while opening its markets to Taiwan and South Korea and early technology transfer to TSMC and Samsung.
Brian Humphery Services was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I made so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Brian.
Well his name is 'Brian Humphery Services'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
USA nominal gdp is higher than China because of the exchange rate. In terms of ppp China is far ahead of Usa. What constitutes the strength of a country is it's manufacturing prowess.
4:17 The chart is bringing back memories of my fourth grade experience when I read the story of the rabbit and the turtle, a story for children. It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop. Education is bitter, but its fruit is sweet -Confucius
Thank you. i really appreciate your videos. I have been a student of international political economy since the late 1960s and I really, really appreciate your videos. Lots of original research and original analysis !!
Kevin i can tell u that i left london and relocated to abuja Nigeria some 4 years ago. This place was a british colony only 65 years ago and there were many in Africa. İ traveled far and wide in Nigeria to remotest outpost and always i notice chinese young men seeking opportunities looking for solid minerals and setting up operations with locals. Never saw a single English man or french or germans in these remote areas and bushes.the Europeans stop working many years ago.u only see europeans in white brand new japanese suv in Cities top hotels all mainly working for NGO or similar unrisky and safe organizations. İts not at all surprising what you are saying. Europe is gone. Seems a tired old part of the world that fast losing relevance. But if you were to go to london or paris or berlin or Brussels they are totally oblivious of what is actually happening to Europe.
They will continue to enjoy their privileges so long as the USD remains the World's reserve currency. They will 'kill' and cause chaos to maintain their privileges.
That's why I am disappointed in Trump as "the Businessman". Cooperation with China is the surest way to maintain American dominance in world affairs and prosperity for as long as possible. With the prosperity America, if it had the political mettle, can fund the work on fixing the infrastructure and structural issues that are clearly dragging the country down. But Trump chose confrontation. Oh well.
Exactly that's how the uk survived and got back and the pound was high for many decades after the war. Only way to stay on top is to help pull people up. You will be needed forever
the fear of communism overwrites every reasonable argument of mutually beneficial cooperation. it would mean the end of US super rich, they worked dilligently since US inception on maintaining a semi aristocratic structure, they won't give it up now, even if it's absolutely detrimental for them. they see it as just another temporary downturn.
@serriajohn Please note that later these assets will be frozen by the US like Henry Kissinger say "it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.!
China doesn't have an ''over-capacity'' problem, the US/West has an overwhelming under-capacity problem, and it can't sanction its way out of this. The US/West is becoming like the late period of Qing Dynasty if not already is.
Scarcity is a foundation of capitalism. Scarcity must be enforced for capitalism to thrive. When there is overcapacity, it threatens and undermines capitalism.
But chinese GDP numbers are opaque and not open to scrutiny. There are good reasons to believe that provinces fudge their numbers significantly to provide a brighter picture that helps the promotion of officers of CCP. It is not possible in democracies. By some estimates China GDP is 60 percent lower than what is shown today.
That what I suspect too. China like to keep at number two just so as not to upset US too much. In reality US knows that China nominal GDP have exceeded that of US
Wow. Every one of your videos sheds more light on things. (And the Peiking Duck ending was cool. If I'm ever at the Grand Hyatt I'll be sure to check it out!)
G7 GDP figures are over inflated and from hyper-financialized economies. It does not account for Purchasing Power Parity either. Finally, G20 pales in importance compared to BRICS (in critical metrics like key resources, industrial output and trade volume). That's what should be evaluated.
Thanks for these great insights. obviously the EU financial system was damaged by Lehman desaster heavier than the US, evident in the EURO crisis in Greece and PIGS states in 2013. Worsening with US geopolitical interests against Russia, splitting Europe into two parts like during cold war. Especially Germany (where I come from) suffers dramatically by cutting off trades with Russia. Europeans would do much better without US hegemony
All euro talant was eager to contribute its dna to a virgin land since geo discovery, ...engage, marrage , nurseing , delivered ,devoced,,,now this lady is Menopaused, the first rhein is ending
Regardless of the trajectory of the country, the US's resources in education, capital, and business intelligence has greatly benefited itself and China. When I visited factories in Dongguan, I spoke to many family business owners who were educated in the US and still serve America as their main international customer. Maybe it's just cause I was a white guy there, but I truly felt a sense of appreciation when speaking to them about their relationship with the US. I doubt you would get the same sentiment when it's the other way around
LOL, most factories in South China are owned by low-educated people. Maybe their children enjoyed an education abroad. Mumbai-Dharavi is NOT a city in China.
Chinese are nice people by nature. Not as jaded as the west. The west did so many evil bad things. They think everyone is coming to get them. So they double down on evil.
Educated in the US is the key. Many US educated Asians are white worshippers who believe that the West is the best and the white men can do no wrong. Of course you feel appreciated, they are literally worshipping you.
EU deindustrialization is mainly because of US. EU is not smart and still today they are not smart for going along with US. They just loss their cheapest source of energy from Russia. US would like to stiffer China too. But on the other hand, China would like everyone to prosper so that China can sell products to them.
besides it's natural cycle of economics. West has prospered... whilst poor countries are making goods (ie slaving). at the cost of western lower education workers, whose income has stagnated ever since fiat introduction in 1970s. If ur in a higher education job - you are doing good. Life in is adaptation, ppl need to stop complaining.
globalisation and technology has been key drivers or cause. USA does better than EU because of big tech companies and maybe because of more capitalist laws
I must say it is the EU who is stupid. When the Russia started war with Ukraine, who is neither a member of EU nor NATO, the US asked EU to sanction Russia by abandoning cheap Russian oil and gas. The EU really bought it. When the EU found out those from the US cost 4 times more the EU knew it was too late. Japan is different as it is owned by the US. When US hikes the interest rate and the yen loses 1/3 its value and we didn't even hear a word from Japan.
In fact we learned recently that Japan doesn't have the right to sell US debt to save its own currency anymore, they need to ask permission to Mrs Yellen first! It is a complete colony and its people will continue to feel the effects .
Most of western Europe and all of Japan are occupied countries. In essence US colonies. Colonies not depleted at the levels of African and South/Central American countries. At least not yet
European leaders knew exactly what they were doing, they just couldn't do otherwise. Germany had been trying to build a second Nord Stream pipeline for a long time, but the US wouldn't allow it. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was exactly what Biden needed to get Europe firmly back under America's thumb, which is one reason Biden completely refused to negotiate any agreement with Russia on not stationing missiles in Ukraine.
@@IgorMuravyov-o5r Arguably Russia started (at least a new phase of) military action. However, it is indeed the western side that explicitly "declared" war (in the mass media) and proceeded to escalate accordingly.
Kevin, you know perfectly well, that the American GDP is 28 trillion is far ahead of the no 2, no economists will tell you why, they know the composition of American GDP, mainly Military and Comsumption, a sort of "Virtual Economy"
My analysis: In 1980's-1990's China look poor, and the US want to use that "CHEAP" labor from any poor country at that time, China provide better labor than India because the law and order in China is pretty stable, thus a good place to invest This is *NOT* about the US think that they can work with China, For the US is about exploiting/using the cheap labor For Chinese is about getting money and knowledge to have bigger business/opportunity.
That seems like a pretty accurate analysis. The US moved offshore to exploit huge opportunities for profit, as it did with Taiwan,Japan and Korea in previous decades. Unfortunately for America, the US wasn’t’t able to wrestle political power away from China and instead created a Goliath competitor.
@@trekpac2 This is true. Japan is down with the Plaza Accord. Taiwan & S. Korea also not dare to cross the US. The current trade war, started from the Alaska meting is the turning point that China say "no"
He's documented that extensively. For example by purchasing power parity, Russia is now the 4th largest economy according to the World Bank, ahead of Japan. Costs are low, making Russia more competitive internationally. But keep calling it a gas station and losing your weapons to said gas station, that'll show them 😂
GDP is not wealth. It is the wealth of the rich in case of USA. If you combine the number of millionaires and the ones in billions you can see clear picture. It is really grim...Also loved how the video ended. Be good. Wow
of course it is wealth, GDP is wealth of a country not individual, that's why India gets to have a space and nuclear weapons programs while citizens don't have clean water because 1.5 billion people earning $1 is more in the budget than 1000 people earning $100k, what is your comment trying to say I've no idea
European economies have been stagnating for so long while emerging and burgeoning economies like that of China or India have gobbled up shares of the global GDP really rapidly.
in or around the mid 1800's it was the first transfer of wealth/lootings from Asia, Africa, and Latin America to the West. the west's economies are stagnating because the exploitation and looting had slow down or stopped.
2008 the EU was passing the US in productivity and just before added 7 more countries, that shook the EU up, but after only two years of tempered growth productivity started shooting up again, the 2008 crash made that there was a real possibility the US within only a few years would only be half the size of the EU economy. That is the point the US took over our politics and intelligence services. Effectively declared war on the European population. And started stealing hundreds of billions of tax income from EU countries through a Dutch exit.
US counts government spending in GDP. Government spending is very debt dependent. This can not be considered as wealth, because it is not an appreciating asset or income producing assets. It's just burning future wealth. US debt will lead to a collapse, not wealth.
The graph showing Gross Domestic Product. How exactly does the United States qualify and quantify its GDP ? It’s mainly a service economy, it’s full of lawyers and regulators and IRS employees and governmental employees and all of the paper pushing participants and businesses that produce actually what tangible product ?
The Europeans countries are seeing the picture also and naturally they don’t like it a bit. They realized that they’ve screwed. They are too afraid to challenge the US, the easier option is therefore to challenge China, following the lead of the US. Naturally, the colonial instinct and racism have something to do with that as well. Well, this plays right into the hand of the US. Unfortunately for Europe, it’s a bad hand for them because challenging China is a much tougher job than it appears. China is simply too powerful and influential economically. Europe and Japan will continue to lose out until they come to the conclusion that challenging China is the wrong answer.
That Global GDP chart would probably look very different if it was expressed as PPP. And when you take the FIRE component out as well, the US has fallen off a cliff. For instance , industrial production in China matches or surpasses BOTH US and European industrial production. We're one major economic collapse away from that all shaking out and consigning that graph to the dustbin.
Peking duck is so good! There's a story about Japan that didn't get told, how their economy was skyrocketing in the mid-1980s (at the direct expense of the EU). Japan jumped from 10% to 15% in 1985 - they year that the US forced Japan to sign the Plaza Accord, leading to the Lost Decades. Japan continued to take share before peaking at 17+% in the mid-1990s before falling down tbelow 4% today. Compare with Trump's tariffs and sanctions starting when China hit 15% of the global GDP. Unlike Japan, China didn't capitulate and they're still holding at 17+% today. With 150+ countries in the Global South as China's BRI partners, and the world's largest domestic market, there's a strong change that China continues to maintain share. Indeed, it's not unreasonable to imagine China ultimately reaching 20-25% of global GDP over the coming decades.
Outside accounting firms want to see the data. And they make visits to verify inventory on the books is actually there. Hand waving and talk don’t cut it. This video reminds me of best accounting standards.
In fact, before populism in US cracked down on Musk and Tesla, I always believed that the electric vehicle industry was a jointly effort for China and the United States to take back their own auto markets from Japan and Germany. Without Chinese engineers, Tesla's upgrade speed has become too slow.
You work for 40yrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life
I’d like to see some of these tables reworked to reflect PPP. In that case, China’s share of global GDP (PPP) would be much higher than the US now. The US’s stellar GDP performance also is related to it maintaining a strong US$, which has driven out a lot of manufacturing. But it allowed the US to borrow lots of money cheaply, accumulating a huge amount of debt. That now has turned into a big liability as paying debt takes more and more a share of GDP. The US won’t be able to make its way out of this one. It will have to undergo a big restructuring which could take much of the 21st century. But its global corporations will just sail on successfully with feet in every part of the world. I wouldn’t want to be an American worker over the next 50 years.
Gdp is an absolute number based on the ŰȘ dollar. It's meaningless. Ppp is relative, based on cost of goods aka "purchasing power" of the local currency being used locally
As always really good analysis, consider touching upon China’s Dam building inside and outside China and how this is also being used to great effect building relationships and bring down the cost of Hydrogen production another industry China is most likely going to dominate.
How much of the US's "GDP" is that of the rentier set? With the very regular "revising" of data by their economists, that figure is becoming pretty meaningless. A LOT of US "GDP" is based on the "service" economies, including the very bloated "Healthcare" sector.
I would say that all this growth in US GDP is based on dollar inflation, not on real growth. The dollar system exports inflation to the rest of the world, i.e., local currencies lose value while the dollar grows - exactly what is happening now in Japan. This creates the illusion that the GDP of the USA is going up, when in terms of real production it has stagnated or even decreased. The only way for other countries to stop this is to get away from the dollar system, so the USD can finally go down in price without taking the whole world economy with it.
The conclusion is that China is rising and the US is at pause. As China grows in technology, the US GDP percent in the world will fall. The US will look like Japan as China takes over the leadership in several key technologies like ship building, transportation, nuclear energy, and aerospace.
No us can be like the uk after ww2. They still have alot of tech. But if they continue with this cold war mentality they will lose. Because last time they had the g7 and eu countries to help now the power and people are in asean and africa.
If we take into account the population of every country, how is the chart? In its long history, China has been ranked top in the world, it is after 1880s that China quickly lagged behind, but that doesn’t mean China will lag behind forever. China returns to the position it once had is very certain.
All the other empires or civilizations died or went away. Only the chinese civilization kept rising after a decline, a book from a scholar I've read said China rose and fell and this is its fifth rise since the start of their civilization.
The US would be substantially lower in global GDP share if it didn't have the reserve currency. At this point in time, it's an unearned privilege that needs to go away.
China is missing one major piece of software dominance … a dominating computer operating system. This year Huawei will likely introduce an OS that will ultimately be installed in a billion computers
FIRE (Finance and real estate), service sector, plus government spending (most of it MIC). Nothing really tangible to the betterment of the mass population
❤❤❤Kevin, thanks for a very insightful piece, Mind you, the number of Chinese going to foreign countries may be slightly undercounted as I notice you have not included some non anglophone countries such as Russia, Byrussia, Ukraine (pre war), Scandinavian countries, etc. I think traditionally and currently many Chinese students study engineering, science and technology in Russia. The US-China were progressing well as were the mutual benefits.. then we lost our national confidence, became paranoiac and instituted a whole series of self harming policies in our panic. These xenophobic tendencies were played up by our “free” media.. voila, we now lapse back to a McCarthy-like era of yore that may harm not only our relationship with China.. but are being left behind in almost every sphere of international relation. We are being ruled by visionless geniasses .. let’s hope we have someone to change our course in the next four years.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸😁💰💰
La velocidad a la que se producen los cambios es el cambio más trascendente de todos porque cuando se hace exponencial el pensamiento lineal se queda siempre rezagado frente a los acontecimientos y no alcanza a entenderlos ni a anticiparlos.
What you said is true based on numbers alone, however you need to add in the fact that USA's GDP is artificially propped up by the weapon sales from the wars it's created
Thank You Sir very very accurate and complete information about how the world economy is unfolding I wonder why very very limited subscription This shows how the so called educated middle class is so ignorant about the most important changes which is happening infront of everyones eyes There is no meaning for the degrees thay are awarded with
The chart shows China's rise between 1995 - 2010 was primarily at Japan's expnse. And after that at Europe's expense. The US I think has been able to maintain its GDP at Europe's expense as well. But as Europe gets tapped out the US may see a similar trend.
1:00 look at what they are trying to do with that graph with all those flags at the bottom😂 That sigh and sucking in air at the beginning of the video though… I can feel the stress through my earphones. 😮
it means university student from china will learn faster if each student attempt 1 different subject and peer review it. Yes , it might mean many original paper will likely be wrong , since most subject have never been peer reviewed
Wrong! American students are milked like dairy stock by loan sharks and leave college $100k to $250k in debt. Young working class people don't see the advantage any more to get a degree, when you have to start your independent life with an second debt that is about half of the average mortgage.
Not possible. US ego would only accept an unequal partnership 70:30 like they believe they have now with the whole world even if the figures tell a different story. The G7 puppies have being so well trained they bark in unison when kicked.😢
Yours Is the best UA-cam channel currently
Winnie the Gay 🌈 Pooh Bear 😅
@adolft_official What You Mean
@@joelturley4847 FY
The US economy is inflated. In terms of PPP(Purchasing Power Parity) China is ahead. Everything costs 3 to 5 times more in the US. People pay more for everything in the US, more for vehicles, more for medical care, more for food, etc.
I think USgovt. is very smart if makes inflation up to 100% inflation. The USdebt will reduce from 34 trillions to 17 trillions. That's easy to pay off USdebt.
@@prakorngirodkunkid7877 That puts pressure on the US population. Home prices going up isn't good, it makes property taxes and homeowner's insurance go up.
@Ace1000ks19751982 I think:1.the rich lost 1/2 assets 2.the poor gain 1/2debt 3.working people get balance by increase salary. Few rich people still have money/ lot of poor easy to pay off debt/worker can balance cost of living.
@@prakorngirodkunkid7877 You can assume whatever you want, or believe what you want.
Exactly..then US gdp number comes out high......which is not a true reflection
You deserve 100x's the subs btw. Keep it up. It's helping. More & more of us 🇺🇸 are figuring out that our gov't is NOT our friend.
US lower education wages has been stagnating since 1970s. US high education wages rocketed. thanks to globalization and technology. If you go to Walmart and see inexpensive Chinese stuff - think why...; understanding of how econ works is flawed.
think why all of the world, including highest paid europeans move to live to USA... USA population grows at around 1-3% yearly... yet chinese country and ruzzians are losing people.
japan lost their share of the global gdp because of the plaza accord, france was robbed of alstom by ge.
Not only that. The US killed Toshiba’s semiconductor business by sanctioning its export to US companies while opening its markets to Taiwan and South Korea and early technology transfer to TSMC and Samsung.
this is propoganda lol
Facts!
@@TotoNut don’t forget how The US suffocated Toshiba’s semiconductor business by fostering the growth of its rivals in Taiwan TSMC and SKorea Samsung.
They literally arrested a alstom executive. Typical french surrender monkeys surrendered their crown jewel.
Tried to do the same with Huawei
I learn so much from this podcast. thanks
I'm interested in investing, but I'm not sure where to start. Do you have any advice or contacts who can help me out?
Investing can be complex, so it's smart to get professional guidance when building your financial portfolio.
Brian Humphery Services was my hope during the 'bear summer' last year. I made so many mistakes but also learned so much from it, and of course from Brian.
I keep hearing great things about Brian Humphery Services! He must really stand out for people to speak so highly of him.
How can I reach him?
Well his name is 'Brian Humphery Services'. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Most of us have been wondering how long before Japan and the G6 grow some spine and stop being US lapdogs.
You may wonder that they may secretly sabotage the relationship between the US and China.
Funny enough, it seems every time they tried to be unleashed, a war broke out. Lapdogs resumed their identity as lapdogs.
@@iWantPeace838abe tried but was assassinated.
Not with American Military bases on them they won't. Basically colonies.
@@nulnoh219 That's why they had US bases foisted upon them: US colonies.
USA nominal gdp is higher than China because of the exchange rate. In terms of ppp China is far ahead of Usa.
What constitutes the strength of a country is it's manufacturing prowess.
Around 70% of US economy is in the Service sector.
@@loveblindhate9318 Burger flippers and paper pushers.
@@ladygracienyc2029 You live in NYC?
Your right! SELLING 70Per of USA on drugs?
@@ladygracienyc2029 burger flippers dont live in millionaire houses. ur yapping
4:17 The chart is bringing back memories of my fourth grade experience when I read the story of the rabbit and the turtle, a story for children.
It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop.
Education is bitter, but its fruit is sweet -Confucius
Thank you. i really appreciate your videos. I have been a student of international political economy since the late 1960s and I really, really appreciate your videos. Lots of original research and original analysis !!
Kevin i can tell u that i left london and relocated to abuja Nigeria some 4 years ago. This place was a british colony only 65 years ago and there were many in Africa. İ traveled far and wide in Nigeria to remotest outpost and always i notice chinese young men seeking opportunities looking for solid minerals and setting up operations with locals. Never saw a single English man or french or germans in these remote areas and bushes.the Europeans stop working many years ago.u only see europeans in white brand new japanese suv in Cities top hotels all mainly working for NGO or similar unrisky and safe organizations. İts not at all surprising what you are saying. Europe is gone. Seems a tired old part of the world that fast losing relevance. But if you were to go to london or paris or berlin or Brussels they are totally oblivious of what is actually happening to Europe.
They will continue to enjoy their privileges so long as the USD remains the World's reserve currency. They will 'kill' and cause chaos to maintain their privileges.
这些中国的年轻人很大部分家庭背景普通，可能来自农村，又是非名校毕业的大学生，他们在国内很难找到高薪的工作，所以才不得不选择到非洲去冒险去寻找机会。但凡他们的家境好一点，我想他们的父母也不想他们的儿子去非洲冒险，非洲还是各方面环境都比较差，部分国家还长期动乱。最近几年，我都比较关注中国的这个很特别的人群，很希望他们能在确保健康和安全的前提下找到发财的机会，促进中非友谊健康成长。
That's why I am disappointed in Trump as "the Businessman". Cooperation with China is the surest way to maintain American dominance in world affairs and prosperity for as long as possible. With the prosperity America, if it had the political mettle, can fund the work on fixing the infrastructure and structural issues that are clearly dragging the country down. But Trump chose confrontation. Oh well.
US is a war nation
Exactly that's how the uk survived and got back and the pound was high for many decades after the war. Only way to stay on top is to help pull people up. You will be needed forever
the fear of communism overwrites every reasonable argument of mutually beneficial cooperation. it would mean the end of US super rich, they worked dilligently since US inception on maintaining a semi aristocratic structure, they won't give it up now, even if it's absolutely detrimental for them. they see it as just another temporary downturn.
@serriajohn Please note that later these assets will be frozen by the US like Henry Kissinger say "it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal.!
NO, it's just Trump who started the trade war on China.
Basically, so-called G7 is under and controlled by G1.
G7 has control of 30-40% of global share... "basically" only noobs here
G7 controls 30-40% of global econ. now read again your comment and think how smart it was.
Most of US' GDP is just air. It's greatly finance "cassino", debts, services, consumption... not hardware.
It's like 70% consumption
China doesn't have an ''over-capacity'' problem, the US/West has an overwhelming under-capacity problem, and it can't sanction its way out of this. The US/West is becoming like the late period of Qing Dynasty if not already is.
中国就是产能过剩，18 年去产能去杠杆，现在依然
Scarcity is a foundation of capitalism. Scarcity must be enforced for capitalism to thrive. When there is overcapacity, it threatens and undermines capitalism.
Well, If that's the case, it would be a good idea to call the sick man of Westerner
This channel should rocket pass 100K subs in no time
Your videos are probably the most storytelling as far as I see
What an awesome analysis! And the Peking Duck at the end is a bonus.
CHINA REAL GDP 1.5x US GDP. As you keep telling us average US prices 2x China at least. Ozempic 10x health 2x at least defence trillions of waste...
Yes, I'd agree. Almost 70% of our GDP is gov't jobs, gov't programs & wasteful gov't defense spending. That's not real "GDP".
Don't forget that about 20% of the US GDP is made up from finance "products".
But chinese GDP numbers are opaque and not open to scrutiny. There are good reasons to believe that provinces fudge their numbers significantly to provide a brighter picture that helps the promotion of officers of CCP. It is not possible in democracies. By some estimates China GDP is 60 percent lower than what is shown today.
That what I suspect too. China like to keep at number two just so as not to upset US too much. In reality US knows that China nominal GDP have exceeded that of US
@@rafa374 Yes, I'd agree. Almost 70% of our GDP is gov't jobs, gov't programs & wasteful gov't defense spending. That's not real "GDP".
Wow. Every one of your videos sheds more light on things. (And the Peiking Duck ending was cool. If I'm ever at the Grand Hyatt I'll be sure to check it out!)
G7 GDP figures are over inflated and from hyper-financialized economies. It does not account for Purchasing Power Parity either.
Finally, G20 pales in importance compared to BRICS (in critical metrics like key resources, industrial output and trade volume). That's what should be evaluated.
yes, the quality of the various gdp numbers must be evaluated.
Thanks for these great insights.
obviously the EU financial system was damaged by Lehman desaster heavier than the US, evident in the EURO crisis in Greece and PIGS states in 2013. Worsening with US geopolitical interests against Russia, splitting Europe into two parts like during cold war. Especially Germany (where I come from) suffers dramatically by cutting off trades with Russia.
Europeans would do much better without US hegemony
All euro talant was eager to contribute its dna to a virgin land since geo discovery, ...engage, marrage , nurseing , delivered ,devoced,,,now this lady is Menopaused, the first rhein is ending
Regardless of the trajectory of the country, the US's resources in education, capital, and business intelligence has greatly benefited itself and China. When I visited factories in Dongguan, I spoke to many family business owners who were educated in the US and still serve America as their main international customer. Maybe it's just cause I was a white guy there, but I truly felt a sense of appreciation when speaking to them about their relationship with the US. I doubt you would get the same sentiment when it's the other way around
LOL, most factories in South China are owned by low-educated people.
Maybe their children enjoyed an education abroad.
Mumbai-Dharavi is NOT a city in China.
You doubt? You know the other way is disgustingly racist.
Chinese are nice people by nature. Not as jaded as the west. The west did so many evil bad things. They think everyone is coming to get them. So they double down on evil.
Educated in the US is the key. Many US educated Asians are white worshippers who believe that the West is the best and the white men can do no wrong. Of course you feel appreciated, they are literally worshipping you.
Of course not. Chinese won't get the same sentiment the other way round.
I am Chinese and have lived in U$ before and know well how we are treated.
EU deindustrialization is mainly because of US. EU is not smart and still today they are not smart for going along with US. They just loss their cheapest source of energy from Russia. US would like to stiffer China too. But on the other hand, China would like everyone to prosper so that China can sell products to them.
ur comment make no sense.; how can u deindustrialize, when USA deindustrializes too..; 70% of US econ. is in services.
besides it's natural cycle of economics. West has prospered... whilst poor countries are making goods (ie slaving). at the cost of western lower education workers, whose income has stagnated ever since fiat introduction in 1970s. If ur in a higher education job - you are doing good. Life in is adaptation, ppl need to stop complaining.
globalisation and technology has been key drivers or cause. USA does better than EU because of big tech companies and maybe because of more capitalist laws
I must say it is the EU who is stupid. When the Russia started war with Ukraine, who is neither a member of EU nor NATO, the US asked EU to sanction Russia by abandoning cheap Russian oil and gas. The EU really bought it. When the EU found out those from the US cost 4 times more the EU knew it was too late. Japan is different as it is owned by the US. When US hikes the interest rate and the yen loses 1/3 its value and we didn't even hear a word from Japan.
In fact we learned recently that Japan doesn't have the right to sell US debt to save its own currency anymore, they need to ask permission to Mrs Yellen first! It is a complete colony and its people will continue to feel the effects
.
Most of western Europe and all of Japan are occupied countries. In essence US colonies.
Colonies not depleted at the levels of African and South/Central American countries.
At least not yet
Russia did not start "a war", unless you perpetuate bs in compliance with the law of the land.
European leaders knew exactly what they were doing, they just couldn't do otherwise. Germany had been trying to build a second Nord Stream pipeline for a long time, but the US wouldn't allow it. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was exactly what Biden needed to get Europe firmly back under America's thumb, which is one reason Biden completely refused to negotiate any agreement with Russia on not stationing missiles in Ukraine.
@@IgorMuravyov-o5r Arguably Russia started (at least a new phase of) military action. However, it is indeed the western side that explicitly "declared" war (in the mass media) and proceeded to escalate accordingly.
Love your videos. Keep it up. I have shared your channel with my family/friends and they have all said the same thing (also subscribers now)
On it's own GDP is way too crude of a metric. One need to know it's structure. I dare to say that China's GDP is of better quality than American one.
china PPP is ahead of USA
You're talking about PPP
Clearly. US GDP is debt-based, both corporate and household. More sustainable = higher quality.
70% of ŰŠ gdp is based on CONSUMPTION.
Yep. Look around China infrastructure. It’s out of this world
Love it! Sweet taste of Peking Duck. USA+China=Sweet Deal. Great analysis, better humor. Thank you!
Kevin, you know perfectly well, that the American GDP is 28 trillion is far ahead of the no 2, no economists will tell you why, they know the composition of American GDP, mainly Military and Comsumption, a sort of "Virtual Economy"
2 US law firms bill each other 1 million each and you have created 2 million GDP. What do they produce?
He did it !!! He SMILED 🙂
My analysis:
In 1980's-1990's China look poor, and the US want to use that "CHEAP" labor from any poor country
at that time, China provide better labor than India because the law and order in China is pretty stable, thus a good place to invest
This is *NOT* about the US think that they can work with China,
For the US is about exploiting/using the cheap labor
For Chinese is about getting money and knowledge to have bigger business/opportunity.
That seems like a pretty accurate analysis. The US moved offshore to exploit huge opportunities for profit, as it did with Taiwan,Japan and Korea in previous decades.
Unfortunately for America, the US wasn’t’t able to wrestle political power away from China and instead created a Goliath competitor.
@@trekpac2
This is true.
Japan is down with the Plaza Accord.
Taiwan & S. Korea also not dare to cross the US.
The current trade war, started from the Alaska meting is the turning point that China say "no"
DECOUPLING IS UNDERWAY 🤩
@@joelturley4847us psyop operative spotted😅
@@tkh2944 Mao Zedong is the worst mass murderer in history 😭
Stalin is # 2 😭
Thx for the analysis
Talking about GDP per se is meaningless, because GDP can be cooked and the figure of many countries' GDP are being cooked !
Exactly, how can the U$ GDP be low if they can sell a bag of nuts for $9000 and a toilet seat for $12,000😂😂😂
He's documented that extensively. For example by purchasing power parity, Russia is now the 4th largest economy according to the World Bank, ahead of Japan. Costs are low, making Russia more competitive internationally. But keep calling it a gas station and losing your weapons to said gas station, that'll show them 😂
GDP is not wealth. It is the wealth of the rich in case of USA. If you combine the number of millionaires and the ones in billions you can see clear picture. It is really grim...Also loved how the video ended. Be good. Wow
of course it is wealth, GDP is wealth of a country not individual, that's why India gets to have a space and nuclear weapons programs while citizens don't have clean water because 1.5 billion people earning $1 is more in the budget than 1000 people earning $100k, what is your comment trying to say I've no idea
@bsdpowa it means gdp in a capitalist country is a skewed representation of a country's wealth. duh. most people are living in poverty
You got it exactly right
@serriajohn India still very much has the "Caste" system. If you are born poor, the system will ensure you remain poor. Contrast this with China.
yes it is wealth.
European economies have been stagnating for so long while emerging and burgeoning economies like that of China or India have gobbled up shares of the global GDP really rapidly.
in or around the mid 1800's it was the first transfer of wealth/lootings from Asia, Africa, and Latin America to the West. the west's economies are stagnating because the exploitation and looting had slow down or stopped.
India's growth is hollow
2008 the EU was passing the US in productivity and just before added 7 more countries, that shook the EU up, but after only two years of tempered growth productivity started shooting up again, the 2008 crash made that there was a real possibility the US within only a few years would only be half the size of the EU economy. That is the point the US took over our politics and intelligence services. Effectively declared war on the European population. And started stealing hundreds of billions of tax income from EU countries through a Dutch exit.
THANKYOU for your brilliant commentaries, Kevin.
You are doing an amazing job with every video! Congrats!!!
I wonder if your closing segments have a meaning relative to the daily topics.
Seeing the bigger picture thanks to your channel. Thank you!
The duck is Fr+JP+Gr+It+UK, the diners are US+CN
Hahahahha 😂😂😂😂
Read this while the duck was roasting 😂😂
US counts government spending in GDP. Government spending is very debt dependent. This can not be considered as wealth, because it is not an appreciating asset or income producing assets. It's just burning future wealth. US debt will lead to a collapse, not wealth.
ya, a real cheeky smirk right towards the end of the video! great articulation !
What an incredible video. Big thanks!
Well said. Thanks for sharing.
The graph showing Gross Domestic Product. How exactly does the United States qualify and quantify its GDP ? It’s mainly a service economy, it’s full of lawyers and regulators and IRS employees and governmental employees and all of the paper pushing participants and businesses that produce actually what tangible product ?
Nominal GDP is rather not useful, GDP PPP is better for inter-country comparisons.
That GDP share shows the impact of 08 financial crisis hit the G7 countries hard and they never recovered, except the US. 🤔
I love Duck Kevin you made me hungry so I'm off out for some 😃 also another great program.
The Europeans countries are seeing the picture also and naturally they don’t like it a bit. They realized that they’ve screwed. They are too afraid to challenge the US, the easier option is therefore to challenge China, following the lead of the US. Naturally, the colonial instinct and racism have something to do with that as well.
Well, this plays right into the hand of the US. Unfortunately for Europe, it’s a bad hand for them because challenging China is a much tougher job than it appears. China is simply too powerful and influential economically.
Europe and Japan will continue to lose out until they come to the conclusion that challenging China is the wrong answer.
Your reports are excellent.
Noticed a slight grin at the end, good way to sin off.
That Global GDP chart would probably look very different if it was expressed as PPP.
And when you take the FIRE component out as well, the US has fallen off a cliff.
For instance , industrial production in China matches or surpasses BOTH US and European industrial production.
We're one major economic collapse away from that all shaking out and consigning that graph to the dustbin.
Peking duck is so good!
There's a story about Japan that didn't get told, how their economy was skyrocketing in the mid-1980s (at the direct expense of the EU). Japan jumped from 10% to 15% in 1985 - they year that the US forced Japan to sign the Plaza Accord, leading to the Lost Decades. Japan continued to take share before peaking at 17+% in the mid-1990s before falling down tbelow 4% today.
Compare with Trump's tariffs and sanctions starting when China hit 15% of the global GDP. Unlike Japan, China didn't capitulate and they're still holding at 17+% today. With 150+ countries in the Global South as China's BRI partners, and the world's largest domestic market, there's a strong change that China continues to maintain share. Indeed, it's not unreasonable to imagine China ultimately reaching 20-25% of global GDP over the coming decades.
Outside accounting firms want to see the data. And they make visits to verify inventory on the books is actually there. Hand waving and talk don’t cut it. This video reminds me of best accounting standards.
In fact, before populism in US cracked down on Musk and Tesla, I always believed that the electric vehicle industry was a jointly effort for China and the United States to take back their own auto markets from Japan and Germany. Without Chinese engineers, Tesla's upgrade speed has become too slow.
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USA GDP overstated. Based on real PPP China is 25% higher than USA. G7 is 27% of Global GDP, while BRICS is already 29%.
I’d like to see some of these tables reworked to reflect PPP. In that case, China’s share of global GDP (PPP) would be much higher than the US now.
The US’s stellar GDP performance also is related to it maintaining a strong US$, which has driven out a lot of manufacturing. But it allowed the US to borrow lots of money cheaply, accumulating a huge amount of debt.
That now has turned into a big liability as paying debt takes more and more a share of GDP. The US won’t be able to make its way out of this one.
It will have to undergo a big restructuring which could take much of the 21st century. But its global corporations will just sail on successfully with feet in every part of the world. I wouldn’t want to be an American worker over the next 50 years.
Brilliant and sobering as always! 😮
GDP is also a horrible metric. PPP is better but still not great
Gdp is an absolute number based on the ŰȘ dollar. It's meaningless. Ppp is relative, based on cost of goods aka "purchasing power" of the local currency being used locally
China ascending, Europe and Japan descending. You can't draw any other conclusion.
As always really good analysis, consider touching upon China’s Dam building inside and outside China and how this is also being used to great effect building relationships and bring down the cost of Hydrogen production another industry China is most likely going to dominate.
How much of the US's "GDP" is that of the rentier set? With the very regular "revising" of data by their economists, that figure is becoming pretty meaningless. A LOT of US "GDP" is based on the "service" economies, including the very bloated "Healthcare" sector.
I would say that all this growth in US GDP is based on dollar inflation, not on real growth. The dollar system exports inflation to the rest of the world, i.e., local currencies lose value while the dollar grows - exactly what is happening now in Japan. This creates the illusion that the GDP of the USA is going up, when in terms of real production it has stagnated or even decreased. The only way for other countries to stop this is to get away from the dollar system, so the USD can finally go down in price without taking the whole world economy with it.
The conclusion is that China is rising and the US is at pause. As China grows in technology, the US GDP percent in the world will fall. The US will look like Japan as China takes over the leadership in several key technologies like ship building, transportation, nuclear energy, and aerospace.
No us can be like the uk after ww2. They still have alot of tech. But if they continue with this cold war mentality they will lose. Because last time they had the g7 and eu countries to help now the power and people are in asean and africa.
My last Beijing duck meal was in Beijing 20+ yrs ago. Yum yum.
US GDP = a drunken sailor with maxed out credit cards.
EU GDP = providing services for the sailor so they don't leave.
good one
If we take into account the population of every country, how is the chart?
In its long history, China has been ranked top in the world, it is after 1880s that China quickly lagged behind, but that doesn’t mean China will lag behind forever. China returns to the position it once had is very certain.
All the other empires or civilizations died or went away. Only the chinese civilization kept rising after a decline, a book from a scholar I've read said China rose and fell and this is its fifth rise since the start of their civilization.
The US would be substantially lower in global GDP share if it didn't have the reserve currency. At this point in time, it's an unearned privilege that needs to go away.
China is missing one major piece of software dominance … a dominating computer operating system. This year Huawei will likely introduce an OS that will ultimately be installed in a billion computers
If the US doesn't really manufacture anything, what is their GDP based on?
FIRE (Finance and real estate), service sector, plus government spending (most of it MIC). Nothing really tangible to the betterment of the mass population
❤❤❤Kevin, thanks for a very insightful piece, Mind you, the number of Chinese going to foreign countries may be slightly undercounted as I notice you have not included some non anglophone countries such as Russia, Byrussia, Ukraine (pre war), Scandinavian countries, etc. I think traditionally and currently many Chinese students study engineering, science and technology in Russia. The US-China were progressing well as were the mutual benefits.. then we lost our national confidence, became paranoiac and instituted a whole series of self harming policies in our panic. These xenophobic tendencies were played up by our “free” media.. voila, we now lapse back to a McCarthy-like era of yore that may harm not only our relationship with China.. but are being left behind in almost every sphere of international relation. We are being ruled by visionless geniasses .. let’s hope we have someone to change our course in the next four years.🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸😁💰💰
La velocidad a la que se producen los cambios es el cambio más trascendente de todos porque cuando se hace exponencial el pensamiento lineal se queda siempre rezagado frente a los acontecimientos y no alcanza a entenderlos ni a anticiparlos.
China play chess, us play checkers ...
A PPP GDP probably is a better comparison for this article.
Resubscribed for the 7th time a minute ago.
By now the Chinese should have a much higher PPP than the US, what's with all the inflation in the US, and devaluation in China.
Thanks 👍
That Global GDP chart - if you use GDP (ppp) instead of GDP (nominal), you will see the red line surpassing the white line some time in August 2014.
What you said is true based on numbers alone, however you need to add in the fact that USA's GDP is artificially propped up by the weapon sales from the wars it's created
Thank You Sir
very very accurate and complete information about how the world economy is unfolding
I wonder why very very limited subscription
This shows how the so called educated middle class is so ignorant about the most important changes which is happening infront of everyones eyes
There is no meaning for the degrees thay are awarded with
Well worth listening to
Amazing info
Kevin your Treasure trove of valid information .
The chart shows China's rise between 1995 - 2010 was primarily at Japan's expnse. And after that at Europe's expense.
The US I think has been able to maintain its GDP at Europe's expense as well. But as Europe gets tapped out the US may see a similar trend.
How do you figure in what's developing in the global south and Asia now? How will the BRICS impact these figures in the next few years?
You did well, my friend. You connected to dots
1:00 look at what they are trying to do with that graph with all those flags at the bottom😂
That sigh and sucking in air at the beginning of the video though… I can feel the stress through my earphones. 😮
it means university student from china will learn faster if each student attempt 1 different subject and peer review it. Yes , it might mean many original paper will likely be wrong , since most subject have never been peer reviewed
American universities went woke and shot themselves in the foot.
Woke genocide said the sheep
Wrong!
American students are milked like dairy stock by loan sharks and leave college $100k to $250k in debt.
Young working class people don't see the advantage any more to get a degree, when you have to start your independent life with an second debt that is about half of the average mortgage.
Can we take a moment to appreciate how nice those public courts are?
Even United States's share of global GDP is going down. Look at the graph: the succeeding peaks are lower than the previous.
Sourcing ZeroHedge as where you got this data must be a joke right?
US has a woman in EU.
How come you report so differently compairing to others?
If all numbers are in reference to the dollar is it a true measure?
and also sad to see how the growth of the US GDP is linked to EU decline
Wait until they do the graph of GDP (PPP)
So, what's all the goading & talk of "kinetics" about?
Unfortunately, both US and China missed the opportunity to form G2, which I firmly believed 15 years ago was going to happen.
Not possible. US ego would only accept an unequal partnership 70:30 like they believe they have now with the whole world even if the figures tell a different story. The G7 puppies have being so well trained they bark in unison when kicked.😢
The DON ! talks the talk but will he walk the walk and tear it all down ??