Home Prices Set to PLUMMET by 30%? (Looming 2023 Housing Crash)
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- Опубліковано 16 лют 2023
- This is just the beginning - the first stage of the housing crash in America.
The home price-to-income ratio is at an all-time high, and the only way to fix it is to see home prices drop by a whopping 30%.
With Americans struggling to afford homes, sales and demand have hit a decade low.
How much do you think home prices will crash by in 2023?
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Or wages have to increase by 30%
LMAO!! That's a good joke
Which gonna cause the housing price to skyrocket.
@@thegods2622 How?
I’ve done so much research and I believe your analysis , the only thing the ‘other side’ has to support their argument that housing won’t go down is unemployment (which the FED has pointed out, in 2022 the numbers the White House gave for new jobs was VERY wrong and grossly overestimated) and “muh inventory shortage” which fails to take into account all of the housing in the process of being built currently. I hate wishing bad on others but I’m praying for a crash because if not, my generation has no chance of achieving the American Dream. With the way things are you have to be high income just to afford a home. And in many places even making a high income basically puts you in poverty . Things have to change. Housing should never have been treated as an investment product.
Or the fact housing was more expensive in the 80s when you factor in higher interest rates
Mark, yes that is why there was a housing crash in the early 80s. Same problem. From the peak of 4 million existing-home sales in 1978, there was a 50% drop in home sales over the next four years, so that by 1982 only 2 million homes were sold. It took almost two decades, or until 1996, before home sales exceeded the 1978 level of 4 million units.
Employment numbers are weird because they count everything from hired today to quit tomorrow. Not to mention I wouldn't be surprised alot of that number is people getting side gigs to make ends meet.
Don't feel bad for how you feel. You are justified in your feelings. A lot of greedy people, who didn't care how many people they put out in the street will loose what they never should have had to begin with. I can't wait for the crash so you and everyone working hard in America can get their very own home at an affordable price.
That’s just the way it is.
Exactly right. It will be a long slow decline. Fast at first, then slowly back down to or below long run average. Always happens that way.
Fed is raising rates again. Rates will soon be at 7.5-8.00
Ive never ever thought in my entire life that America would have rate THAT CLOSE to Russians lol
@@FeDDoSoffwe had rates double digits the entire decade of the 80s 7-8 is historically normal
@@FeDDoSoff historically 7-8 is low
I hope they hit 10%. I have 3 homes where my rates are 1.85% on a 15 yr and two are at 3.02% and 3.1%. If it hits 10%, I’ll find qualified buyers and I’ll only charge 7-8% giving a few % discount. Cha-Ching.
This is what happens in a greedy hyper capitalist economy. Investors and investment companies that bought many residential properties may start THE BIG DUMP of those properties. This is what happens when there is no regulations. An unregulated capitalist market creates social ills, like the increase in the homeless. Powerful investors don't want market regulation because they make big money in a shorter economic cycles. They money on the upside and downside. Without the hyper amount of greed, the slow upward slope of economic growth would extend over a longer period of years. But, slower profit growth for investors.
Nope. This is what happens when hyper socialist seize control of the economy and double the money in circulation.
This would have to be the DUMBEST time in American History to buy a house with a new originating mortgage.
There are still lots of foreign cash buyers here around Seattle, but the people using firms to “pay cash” through financing have dried up, as well as many investors who finally got sticker shock. $600k/year is middle class in the nicer areas, not upper middle class anymore. The rest of the middle class has been hollowed out and many earning well into the six figures are living paycheck to paycheck. It is really strange to walk around multimillionaires driving a Toyota RAV4 with a 1950s-era rambler they bought and remodeled. Earning $600k/year and affording what someone who earned $50k/year not too long ago is nuts to me.
Even with rates higher than ever, home prices in Los Angeles are still going up… I’m not seeing a change in prices at all. I feel I’m permanently priced out
Great analysis. I live in the NW and my house doubled in price in just 6 years, 2016 -2022. The price is drifting down now. But I took it with a grain of salt, paper wealth. I have focused on getting the lowest payments at the best rates. From my point of view, there's no incentive to move anytime soon
Good move, your house isn't gaining value though. The paper is just worthless compared to the past.
Living in the northwest is the incentive
Amazon corporate back to work 3x a week starting May 1
Pajama party is ending
I am biding my time.... Going to strike when the time is right to buy again. For now.... Just watch and eat popcorn.... With a smile on my face.
Living minimalist and waiting to strike at the right time .
Corporate investors shouldn't be allowed to buy residential property 😑
They want prices to go much higher so no one but the elites can buy. Those making under 500k will be stuck renting forever.
Well It's hard to wait. That's why it pays so much. If you thinking waiting to buy is hard, try waiting fom the seller's side.
Been there. Done that.
I like this kid Nick. He's done his homework. I saw 2008 coming. I only found 2 investor types who saw it coming, even though now, I see a bevy of gurus laying claim to prescience on it.
So Nick here, was calling it over a year ago, maybe 18 months. Nick Alone? Dunno. But 10-12 years from now, when the hootenanny of seers and guides all claim foresight, try to remember this guy was a definite first order harbinger.
Agreed, Nick has his facts straight. Fed needs to follow through. Quit tip toeing
Exactly, Nick is THE prophet on the housing crash - his foresight on inventory shooting up is matchless when all others are awing/cheering/sighing at the low inventory a year ago.
Hell Yea, Nick is an OG
he's been calling for the crash for over 2 years, he has deleted his first videos cause it makes him look bad
Can’t knock him for being consistent.
Thank you so much for giving a darn about Americans! It's so disgusting seeing all the talk by the financial moguls that the crash is over. It's not yet started. Fool us how many times?
Home values in Florida have been declining for months. -8% since January, alone. This trend will continue for the better part of a decade.
So scare people so much that they take their money out of banks at high interest rates, tell them they shouldn't buy a home for a couple years while corporations continue to stock up on inventory. Anyone else feeling cornered?
Thoughts on foreclosures would be a nice video . My area shot up so much so fast I don’t know how they would not be an inevitability only have seen 3 and they went fast. Would like your 2cents on the matter especially in the NW
We were quite surprised- we knew someone who bought a foreclosed home. The home was NOT cheaper, and there was a lot of legalities and difficulties (problems) with this situation. Not cheaper and more things to deal with. Not our cup of tea.
Me too San Diego CA
I believe last quarter there was about 69,000 new foreclosures that were started.
@AndyBriggsRE thank you. I'm needing to move May I moved to help my elderly parents. Mom passed away and I'm fearful that I'll end up in the desert
@@janelewis7747 My heart goes out to you and your loved ones Jane 😔 I hope you have some special memories you can remember her by.
I love SoCal but it's so crazy now. My girlfriends family is all from LA and they are slowly moving out here and loving it.
Totally ignoring the fact that there are so few homes for sale.
Not in Florida.
Yep, prices are holding steady.
I been hearing the same thing since last year and I do not see the prices down enless for those homes everyone know that in a different market won't sell. If you look at the market in NY and Nj those prices and demand are pretty high and competitive
My uneducated guess, from living through this before, it’s gonna be more like a 50% housing price correction.
ok so a while ago the fed stated home prices needed to be more inline with incomes..yes I can read and retain... this is a plan
I am priced out in Collin County.
All that Listening to you did for me was make me miss out on 2% interest rate 🤣
Makes sense but for some reason not happening in our local market - Dan Diego CA. Prices are consistently going up and the ones that return to the market with a "price reduction" were just posted much higher than they should have been in the first place, just to test the market. I've been trying to buy my next duplex and anything that even remotely comes close to reason gets snatched in cash immediately. Maybe it's time for us to look at other states...
San Diego is definitely a special case due to influx of rich people and money.
I sold my house at the top of the market in June, now is the waiting game. San Diego is always the last to decline and first to recover. Prices are softening but real estate is always slow and patience is gold.
gonna end up like Venezuela. where everyone would be billionaires but still poor.
Possibly could take a long time to play out this time with so many people locking in 2-3% loans, golden handcuffs, I don’t think I’ll ever move, glad I like this house
Unemployment is on the rise along with foreclosures. Foreclosures can bring down home values. Student loans will have to be repaid again very soon as well as people who received modifications during COVID need additional modifications to their loans. It is a lot of moving parts here.
Why houses don't loose value overtime like cars 🤔
Trying to convince my agent of this has proved to be pointless.
Consider...Compensation Bias? Haha
They're a special breed.
Homes in Cali still selling fast
Yeah, the one thing you weren’t considering is that household are now more likely to be dual income. Not all household, but significantly more over the last 10 years.
The other thing to consider is something like 95% of homeowners have incredibly low mortgage payment so they have no reason to sell in the near future. So only those that are extremely qualified to buy or buying a this is putting a massive choke on the inventory/supply in the market , which is why demand is still there.
I'm a firm believer in free markets but large investment companies buying up houses and not just in the city but a lot of rural areas and charging rent like it's Manhattan in 2005 is something that needs to be stopped by towns. Also there is no incentive to build new houses for the majority of Americans, it used to be the government (those people we all pay shit loads of taxes to because those taxes are supposed to be used for the people) would give to builders to build homes for the average American. I live in a town of 5k in the middle of now where Mass and it cost as much for a house here that it does not far outside of Boston. Median income for a family in town 50k median price for a home 380k...I'm not good at math but hmm
Are you speaking from your holes? Higher rates, people can’t afford the mortgage payment. People with 2-3% interest rate are reluctant to get a higher rates. Location location and location pal b/c there is limited listings in Southern California.
Thanks 🙏 again for your great work
In my market the inventory is skeleton low below 500k (median price around 400k) but DOM for January were 42- but the DOM in the median range are flying like hotcakes. It was slowing down but now that rates have dropped it's picked back up but there isn't much to buy that's AFFORDABLE. I think this is a little bounce before we see the real impact of this inflation. May not see many foreclosures for a while since many people will still be able to sell for a profit even as prices decline.
Well, speaking of foreclosures: the foreclosures for December 2022 went up by 76% compared to December of 2021. We know where that is headed
@@ArmaDino22 if you check out realtytrac and pre-foreclosures, certain areas are definitely in worse shape than others. My area barely has any, but Maryland looks like the entire state could be foreclosed on. I'm always wary of percentages with increases. 76% sounds like a ton but there was a 2 yr moratorium on foreclosures so we are coming from zero. Also not every pre-foreclosure ends up in full foreclosure. For instance, a homeowner can get behind and be in pre-foreclosure but have plenty of equity and sell without the consequence of foreclosure. I sold tons of short sales after the 08 crash and we are now much more versed in those than when that crash happened. When I start seeing more of those pop up we will know what's right around the corner- but again, sellers would need to be upside down on equity.
@@peachyfirm8755 I'm hearing lots of Realtors call it an early spring market...I honestly think it's just a bounce. 🤷♀️
@@peachyfirm8755teeter totter. 7%rates on one end and home prices on the other end. That dip to 5.99 was a sucker Dip
Ppl can’t afford. Nobody on minimum wage $12 in Arizona at 40 hours that’s bearly 2k rent 1500 for 1 bedroom
Isn't this concept assuming Homes can only be purchased by US citizens? When foreign investments and home purchases could be contributing to the "bubble"
You been saying this for last one year !!
Market-specific. Not what we are seeing or expecting in Indianapolis.
Other countries have had much more expensive real estate compared to wages for decades with no crash.
Do they have a 30 yr mortgage or more? They may have option for 40 yr amortization which would cut the monthly pmt by a lot. Canada has this option. Also which countries are you referring to? European countries are having downturns in their markets as is Canada.
Very good video 📸
Because of the rates .
But I am seeing a lot of foreign miney coming in from China and Russia in our area. The demographic is changing. So when you say Americans can't afford to buy a home, look overseas. Especially on coastal territories.
Yet the home prices to income in US, is one of the lowest in the World!!!
Good point - I just checked a foreign market which I'm familiar with and home prices there are higher than Las Vegas. The local disposable income there is way less than $100 per month
Yes and no - you got to go to the quirky details of each high housing country and see what is going on there. Your simple statement does not mean much. For example, you can only compare large countries with the US due to the market size. Saying Hongkong housing much expensive than US does not implicate US housing can catch up. China is a special case and its housing is now at the beginning of a multi-year slide.
It is in the numbers, at this time the house prices in China are more then 30 years anual gross income, while in the US 4 times. A huge difference, and while that Indicate how easily you can afford a house it applies to any market independent of it's size. I agree, China is in a massive bubble, that once will deflate will hurt the entire economy.
keep on ringing the bell
When should I buy??
Hi Nick, awesome video as always. Big fan here. Can you make a chart on mortgage vs income chart to see if the high housing cost is actually squeezing people that hard?
Disagree, I’ll bet money that homes in South Florida don’t drop more than 10% from their current numbers if they even do that. Most are still getting within 2% of asking price and inventory in SE FL is very very low.
don't have Congress to bale them out either, let's not get stupid about this
People are always buying no matter how high the interest rate is.
Ehhh idk. I like Barry Habib's explanation of his views better and David Stephen's which is the opposite of this scenario
Double bubble coming!
Could go higher though…
People in California they buy house left and right!
Absolute insanity 🎉
Dude been trying to sell the “crash” for 2 plus years
U look good with hair
Clown doesn’t know that most homeowners have low fixed rate mortgages, hasn’t a clue why housing crashed 14 years ago
Need to drop 50%
Get 3rd world roomate(s) from The America's, Haiti, Cuba, The Philippines.
Oh just stop with the fear mongering.
Other experts telling people to buy now 🤡
Who are those "experts"?
@@VegasSchmitty We were looking at a few houses and our realtor was telling us to buy now because prices went down. Thankfully I do my own research.
@@PBurst you know that’s their business right?
There will not be a crash. This is called inflation and it’s because people have given up working for less to produce more to keep the power of dollar like they used to decades ago. The only way to solve this problem is to work hard and get paid less so that groceries and shops or Amazon are full of American goods and products instead of Chinese products otherwise the value of dollar will reduce and as a direct results the price of goods , cars, services and house and everything will increase. Be ready for more inflation every year or make America great again with hard working…..
@@rezaasadipour4278 huh 🤔
It will rollback to 1970s prices by end of summer 2023. Watch.
I'm still watching hahaha.
When the hell are prices gonna come down?
When will things regulate?
When we stop electing Democrats and Republicans!
I live in Southwest Florida Cape coral. The pricing of houses has went down some but not nearly what you say is going to. I don't think the housing market has caught up with hurricane Ian. And I don't think they have realized how many people have moved out of this area to compensate for the pricing. That's just my thoughts.
Patience, 2024-25 will look better
Dude been trying to sell the “crash” for 2 plus years
Oh just stop with the fear mongering.