How High Will Bond Yields Go | Weekly Treasury Auction Update April 2024
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- Опубліковано 12 тра 2024
- The 2-Year Treasury Note hits 5%, last week’s $400+ billion of new issue Treasury auctions & the upcoming week’s big news that could move the bond market - that's what we're talking about in today's video!
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*Sources can be found in first pinned comment.
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Our Bond Courses vs UA-cam Membership | Which Is Right For You: ua-cam.com/video/H5h4Eyh0hjo/v-deo.html
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Here is the overview for Bond Beginners:
1. Bond Basics
What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works
Why Invest In Bonds
New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
Interest Rates & Bond Prices
Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
Always Remember This!
Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
Different Types Of Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
Seven Key Bond Risks
Credit Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
Inflation Risk
Liquidity Risk
Currency Risk & Country Risk
Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
Wrap-Up
3. US Treasuries Overview
What Are US Treasuries
Why Invest In Treasuries
Where Can You Buy Treasuries
How Are Treasuries Taxed
Wrap-Up
4. Treasury Bills
What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen
Where Should You Buy At Auction
Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction
Where To Find Recent Auction Results
High Rate vs Investment Rate
Reopening Auctions
Cash Management Bills (CMBs)
Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
Wrap-Up
5. Treasury Notes & Bonds
What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds
When Do Auctions Happen
Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds
Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate
Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
Treasury Zeros (STRIPS)
Wrap-Up
6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected)
What Are TIPS
When Do TIPS Auctions Happen
Nominal vs Real Yields
Negative Yields
How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation
Taxes On Phantom Income
Secondary Market Liquidity
Wrap-Up
7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
What Are I-Bonds
How Does I-Bond Interest Work
I-Bonds vs TIPS
The Annual I-Bond Limit
Wrap-Up
8. Agency Bonds
The Universe Of Bonds
What Are Agency Bonds
How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
Treasuries vs Agencies
Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
Wrap-Up
9. Municipal Bonds
Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
What Are Municipal Bonds
How Safe Are Munis
How Are Munis Taxed
The De Minimis Rule
Social Security & Medicare Premiums
Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
Who Might Want To Consider Munis
Wrap-Up
10. Corporate Bonds
Our Bond Universe Is Complete
What Are Corporate Bonds
How Safe Are Corporates
Corporate Bond Hierarchies
Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
How Are Corporates Taxed
Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
Wrap-Up
>>>>>>>>>>
Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
1. Stocks vs Bonds
Historical Performance
Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
Why Invest In Bonds
Accumulation vs Decumulation
Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
Nominal vs Real Yields
Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
Wrap-Up
3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
What Is A Bond Ladder
5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
Laddering When Rates Are Rising
Laddering When Rates Are Falling
Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
What Is A Bullet
What Is A Barbell
Wrap-Up
4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
Why Hold to Maturity
When To Sell Early Before Maturity
Tax Implications Of Selling Early
Wrap-Up
5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
Why Buy Individual Bonds
Why Buy Bond Funds
Bond Fund Considerations
Key Bond Fund Concepts
CDs vs Treasuries
Other High-Yield Investments
Wrap-Up
6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
Model Portfolios In The Industry
B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
How Much Do You Need To Retire?
How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
Wrap-Up
7. The Decumulation Phase
What Is The Decumulation Phase?
Bear Markets & Recessions
What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
Decumulation Tax Considerations
The 4% Rule
The Bucket Strategy
The Flooring Approach
Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
Wrap-Up
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SOURCES FOR TODAY'S VIDEO:
www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us
www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-domestic-product-first-quarter-2024-advance-estimate
www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index
www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/upcoming/
www.treasurydirect.gov/auctions/announcements-data-results/
www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
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If the Fed excludes everything people need to survive from their calculations, then we are doing just fine 😅
I redeemed my 0% fixed rate I Bond (purchased April 2022) about a week ago and bought a new one to lock in the current 1.3% fixed rate. Probably should have waited to see if the fixed rate goes up May 1, but my crystal ball refused to give me a straight answer!
Never 1st before
Your a good teacher
Have learned a lot and put to use
Bought the 5 and 7 to hold.
Nice duration match as an early retiree.
Excellent video, as always... thanks!
Thank you for the great content
Yes, pricing is still rising in the northeast. I suspect and hope rates remain steady, so to benefit from T-bills rates Finally, thank you for your excellent work in keep us informed.
Thanks for the timely, informative video! I think at most one cut this year, likely not before Fall.
subscribed and liked, thank you for your videos.
Thanks ,, gonna need unexpected numbers before seeing if they'll raise rates!! Waiting game! , Too many banks already in trouble, all trying to raise capital.
Excellent video. Thank you.
Something needs to move the bond market.
I live in Hawaii, prices for everything relevant to life keep going up (food, energy, housing). Maybe starting to see some sales on things like durable goods but nothing to be too excited about yet.
Agreed. From Hilo.
Jen, a video on PCE and CPI-U as favored Fed/Treasury gauges would be helpful. Thanks for these updates. The Treasury qtrly refunding update you gave last qtr offered perspective for 2024; looking forward to your thoughts on this week's new release.
Noted!
Thinking rates will stay the same for now.
Yep, I wouldn't expect a rate cut, but a better prospect is they go up this year.
@@russejones Good point. I remember the days of stagflation and getting 14% interest on 90 day CDs.
Fed rate cuts are transitory.
I think it is likely that the Fed may not cut rates at all this year, and that they may even consider raising rates one more time, depending on upcoming economic data.
I think they will cut 2 times before elections.
That's what some in the market think as well at this point in time
Great summary Jenn!
Inflation is still a persistent problem in most segments of the economy; the saving grace being that the widening middle east conflict has not caused oil prices to escalate in any meaningful way. Even though the core PCE excludes food and energy, energy costs are folded into everything made and bought around the world. In light of all of the current news, I don't think the fed will see the need raise rates, but I don't think there will be any rate cuts before Jan 2025 either, and could be even much later than that. Risking a to-soon rate cut, only to have to back track would truly be a disaster.
Here in Oregon and Washington gas prices are going up double digit. Because of cap and trade we are at $4.50 a gallon.
Why did my charles scwab money market snvxx go down from 5.03 to 5.02? Should’ve it have gone up?
Prices have stabilized where I live, but they're always outrageous. I don't see the Fed raising rates but maybe cuts won't come until December or so.
Good stuff
If the 30 year ever go up to 8% I'm throwing everything i have in to it.
We really need to vote them out…
Is there a video that DNE has done that covers how to sell treasury notes before they mature in a Vanguard IRA?
Saturday night video tells me next week will be active.
I'll take a stab at your ? CPI-U is the broad picture of prices rising or falling, and CPI-W is a smaller version of it for working people. They are reported by the (BLS) The PCE keeps track of how much $$$ were spending and is part of the (BEA'S) Personal Income and Outlays Report.. Looks like an important report to keep an eye on.. What do they call the Income side of that report, is that an easy number to track.
Thanks for the weekly update.
You're welcome & thanks for taking a shot at this. I will do a deeper dive into the differences in the coming weeks.
@@DiamondNestEgg Thanks for the questions, I enjoy your Socratic style. Articulating information in written or verbal form is way harder than just getting the gist.
The civics and macroeconomics one can learn by studying about fixed income investing is a nice little non-taxable dividend. Lol
I don't think there will be any rate cuts this year. The market is just to uncertain. I think the Feds will try to avoid any rate hikes until after the November election
Thanks for sharing James & I hope you are enjoying the bond course!
Diamond-Nestegg-Yellow... reminds me of a healthy nutrient-rich egg yolk
does anybody know when vanguard credits your account when a t-bill matures is at end of day still waiting for them to credit my account so i can buy another and its 8;00pm on the maturity date fidelity does do this to me
No rate cuts this year, especially if inflation keeps trending up.
Has anybody had experience with agency bonds?
The rates are over 6% but they have such a long maturity rate...
Are they liquid enough to sell them on the secondary market on fidelity.
I called fidelity but couldn't give me a good clear answer.
Check Fidelity's Fixed Income page under the News & Research tab. Agencies are on the 3d line down on the Yields tab (which comes up as default on the Fixed Income page). There is an active secondary market. Works well. Note, though, that Agencies are not call protected. Certainly not as liquid as Ts.
I bought 3 10 year agency bonds last year. One has already been called. My philosophy is to enjoy the good rate while it lasts, and be prepared to live with uncertainty.
I have not found any 6% Agencies that are not callable. If/when rates fall, they will most likely be called. The farthest out call dates right now are about a year. I have a couple that are around 6%, and they are callable within one year. I did find a 15 year non-callable one at 5.12%. Agency Bonds are not very liquid, probably depending on when you were trying to sell them. It's best to plan on holding them to maturity.
@@petrao8669
Thx
I have purchased 12M/18M/24M agency bonds on Fidelity. Pretty rare though you need to check availability frequently. Shorter durations cut down on the call risk.
People are still spending but via credit cards, so question is when do we hit the point where cards are maxed out and spending falls off a cliff
Biden will forgive credit card debts to maintain their interests
The FED is in a no win situation. Look at what’s going on in Japan. The BOJ has lost control. Ok, they’re not the world reserve currency like USD, but how much longer can the Treasury keep on selling all these treasuries. Rates should be much higher.
As long as people are willing to buy them for the prices they are willing to buy them for, rates should not be higher.
My opinion is Fed will hold rates. Smart money has been flowing out of the stock market for last couple of months. This money needs a home so bond market has more money flowing in.
I guess I'm dumb money then LOL. I've been buying stocks, but I'm in for the long haul.
If they cut rates then we’re all screwed with higher prices.
The Fed will not cut this year. Still to much cash sitting on the side lines and inflation is here to stay. Cutting rates would just add to more inflation.
Does the 2 year treasury yields reflect the government's future borrowing costs? On 4/30/2022 the 2 years had a yield of 2.7%. In September of 2022 it reached 4%. Now it is at 4.96%. It looks like the treasury will have to pay significantly more each month as the older treasuries expire. In looking at the 2 year treasuries histories it could be a long time before it drops below 3% or even 4%.
I got 4.898% for y uncommitted bid last week!😊
@@TheMohamed1952 sorry . It should read “I got a 4.898% 2- year note with an uncommitted bid last week.” Please accept my apology!
I’m the first person to comment 🎉 lol
Salt Lake City / Utah has a significant cost of living crisis.
8, 9, 10 % HOORAY
we now have the worst possible leadership at the worst possible time
Seriously?