There's not much I can add to the views aired on the Monday Club. Disregarding the steadily increasing price of the models, the big problem, for me, and probably many others, is the very long gap between a manufacturer announcing model X, and it actually appearing on the shelf. It can be two or three YEARS between placing a pre-order, and actually receiving it - and as we advance in years, or carry ailments, we begin to wonder if we will still be on this planet when the model finally arrives - and if we have already popped off, what will our surviving family do with it, as it may be meaningless to them.
Hi Jenny, I do agree that the sales are not sustainable or ultimately good for the hobby however it must be said that the 'worth' of something is only what people are prepared to pay for it. They must see the value in what they are being asked to pay. I do feel that currently, Bachmann and a few others are well out of step with the market and what prices it will support - their new products are overpriced for what they are and they must revise their costs/manufacturing process to be able to complete profitably. Other manufacturers have been able to do this and have set the benchmark now. The price of the 'ERHEL' I mentioned on the last Monday Club is a prime example - if the mechanicals do not contribute much to the overall cost, you are basically purchasing a glorified coach - would you pay that price for a coach ? The above is very simplistic I know however any manufacturer has to be able to bring goods to the market at a price that customer can and will afford otherwise their continued existence is bleak. Finally, it's worth noting that Ferrari, Bentley and Rolls Royce have all gone bust on multiple occasions.
Hi Jenny I agree with your statement about people feeling ripped off Just look at the o gauge class 58 I paid full price for mine and now it’s 50% off and I do wish I’d waited and picked it up cheaper I think that the hobby looks to be over priced when they offer sales at such reduced prices
Sales will only dry up if UA-camrs make videos telling retailers we have noticed it's worth waiting until they start discounting their overpriced models! A case in point: I very much wanted the Rails/Dapol D1 locomotive, but refused to pay the price they were asking for it on release. I knew it wouldn't sell out as the quality of the previous D locomotive had been questionable, and the D1 was also was raising some questions (i.e. its haulage capacity). Sure enough a month or so ago it appeared in a Rails "Flash Sale". I STILL didn't buy it, as I'm waiting for an even greater discount!
Back in the 70s, the Hornby kept many of the same stalwarts in their catalogue for years. Now the landscape has changed and many models have very limited production runs and manufacturers have to maintain an exhausting quest for new models. I hope this trend doesn't lead to company failures and a sharp reduction in the huge range we enjoy today.
Thanks Jenny, this is an extremely well-argued and put together piece. I agree with much you say. I was brought up in the book trade, both new and secondhand. There are some retail parallels and some key differences. Model railway producers seem to be in a post-Accurascale, post-Simon Kohler phase: Hornby used to supply a solid and dependable range of classics/essentials - the Shakespeares, Dickens, Jane Austens, Bibles and Dictionaries. Now it’s a Henry Ford approach - any loco you like provided it’s LNER. Their range development is in TT120 which is where they’re following the Bachmann/Accurascale/Cavalex philosophy of offering many niche variants of a very few types for strictly limited periods of time. Adjusting to this new post-Accurascale world is why in part, I think, we’re seeing so many models dumped on the remaindered market so quickly after release. Overall I share your outlook; grab the discounts while you can. Or forever hunt down secondhand models to source the specific fleets you desire.
The sale price is the default price now - Anything gets released by a manufacturer and it's on sale or discounted DAY ONE by Rails, so everyone else follows suit - nobody is going to pay £50 more when they don't have to. Of course, this doesn't happen with Accuracale stuff I've noticed, they tend to remain at RRP for absolutely ages, but moving on. The RRP has now become an almost arbitrary number, and the sale price has become the new starting point RRP. You must ask the question, was it ever intended to be sold at full RRP? Manufacturers must know what retailers will do, they're not daft. I wonder, have these "discounts" been built into the price in order to somewhat 'protect' retailer margins somewhat? "Oh look it's already got 15% off!😮😮 No more sales yet guys!" But in actual fact, THAT is the true RRP - never intended to be sold at the listed RRP...
Research and development is one of the key sections of a successful manufacturing company. I would therefore like to think that it’s one of the most important aspects of the business.
Once out of warranty products have a lower value to a retailler - hence they dump them cheaply. Simply put profits at retail ( and for manufacturers ) are large, hence they can afford to dump inventory to recoup cash. Ebay is your friend as most dealers want to ask almost retail prices for used stock. Different market but a local business had a franchise and the manufacturer wanted an order for £1,000,000 for 2005 - they got dumped as a supplier instantly.
You mentioned towards the end how EMUs particularly don't sell. Perhaps if manufacturers actually produced EMUs in a way that allowed modellers to accurately portray real life it might help. For instance Bachmann did the BR 2EPB, which always ran in company with BR 4EPBs, SR 2EPBs & SR 4EPBs, none of which are available. Likewise the 4TC was produced, without the 4REP they ran with for much of their career EMU enthusiasts seldom want just the one unit, but often it is years before a different runing number is offered for a given livery. One exception was the Hornby 466 which was offered with I believe 3 different numbers in one go, but again the 465 these units virtually always run with was missing completely Although occasional EMUs are offered, a thought out consistent range has never occurred. Very frustrating!
Hi Jenny. Another very well thought out and intelligent piece. The market price setters are now the likes of Accurascale & Dapol. Others will have to follow if they wish to remain competitive. If the price of their new 08s is anything to go by, it seems Bachmann is not yet ready to re-align its pricing strategy, which seems to follow the "product lifecycle" model: start by demanding top dollar to attract the "innovators" & "early adopters", then reduce the price to entice the remaining potential customers, down to the "laggards", who will only buy at "fire-sale" prices. Your Ben & Jerry's example also did for Debenhams: no-one bought anything at full price because we all knew it would be in a Blue Cross Sale within a month or so.
Totally agree Jenny I think the amount of new releases this year has been overwhelming and if you were to buy them all you would have to be a millionaire. I agree with one of the earlier comments that not everyone wants highly detailed models and there should be options to purchase both a basic and a high spec model of the same item.
Hi Jenny, I would expect it all depends on the manufacure's business models. If a manufacturer does a study or polls the public and decides to make a model and makes more than the market can absorb then I can see a surplus and sales. Using Rapido as an example, they don't make an over abundance of stock and only make a bit more than the preorders. If sales and preorders are swift they will do another run. The RDC is a great example. i think theybare on its third run. They also space out reruns and I am sure Rapido monitors the resale market. When an older run can fetch more than quadruple its original price there may be a market for another run. Keeping and making just enough to make the market happy keeps them wanting more in my opinion.
Manufacturers are in a danger of losing sales if the prices keep going as they are and we are in danger of losing both manufacturers and retailers. I think some prices are high due to the amount of detail going into them. Why do you need a fully detailed underside to wagons or locos? It’s never seen. Are museum quality models the best thing to have as a norm, or would it be better to have less detailed models as the norm and have the super detailed models in a separate range for those that want it. Plus it’s getting harder and harder to even find reasonably priced 2nd hand models, the online retailers and auction sites want nearly new price for their pre-owned stock. For those of us on limited incomes these prices are unsustainable.
Hi Jenny, if they are able to reduces the price so much. The question is how much are they making on the item at the start. People can not afford these silly prices. I for one have cut back a lot on what I buy because of the prices .
The sad thing is that so many people consider the prices of different items too high to start with. When the manufacturer makes an item at a price point, one knows that the price will drop if the market demands it.
As regards the 'i just bought one, and now its reduced' problem. I remember ordering a YEC Janus 060DE from Golden Valley , when first advertised online, waiting a very long time and finally collecting from the Ian Allen shop at Waterloo . Since then I have seen the same model advertised at a discount as much as 40% off. I have also benefitted from the same discounting , I didnt choose to buy my Kerr Stuart 'Victory ' 060T when I first read of it. When it appeared in stock the price was highet, but I bought after it had been discounted and the price had dropped to the original pre-order price. So its swings and roundabouts .
At the end of the day models are a business. Retailers have sales to return the cash to plough back into new products. Manufacturers sell off to again generate cash flow and to clear warehouse space. Sales have taken place in model railways for decades. Indeed that's what made Hattons the success it was, until someone thought that they could move away from what Hattons did well!
I only buy "bread and butter" models, they are priced reasonably, I have only bought one new HO locomotive and that was a Piko BR218 in a special Marklin-piko Cottbus locomotive shed collaboration paint scheme that was $100.00 because I had wanted that locomotive when that scheme was announced. That and I like the loco that was painted in that scheme.
I think manufacturers are looking for the 'ooh shiny' and FOMO approach because after a time, the models they are producing are competing against the second hand market. I don't see Hornby bring back the rather excellent J94 any time soon because ebay is flooded with second hand models, many of which are like new and sell for a price Hornby just can't compete with, even though they have not produced it for about 20 years now.
Hornby is a case in point. It thought it was king of the hill and is now in trouble from the likes of Accurascale and other brands putting out better models for less monay and affordable payment methods. It's exactly like the East Coast computer industry that was destroyed by the Californian entepenuers - they changed the business model and the East Coast died. That's unfettered capitalism, for good or bad. Hornby needs to follow Accurascale and bring the 'pay a small deposit on announcement and pay in three installments' method. Allows ordinary ppl to get new models in an affordable way. The alternative is the hobby will degenaerate into a two tier system where the ppl with disposable income will have niche models and the rest will have to grub for discounted or secondhand last generation stuff. Having worked in the design industry and mobile app development I see the parallels. That's my tuppennyworth.
I'll be honest, 90% of my stock comes from sales. It's the only way I can afford the hobby! (especially in O gauge- if I shop in sales I can get O gauge for a very small out more than 00) Items are getting very expensive, and the cost of living is ever tighter.... without those sales I'd have less than half the stock I have! I do agree that there's an ever higher turn over of new models coming out.... and I am not sure that is sustainable.
A sale, in reality a sale is 365 day a year, Spring sale, Summer sale, Autumn sale, and Winter sales. But what is the real price of an item? How do manufacturers arrive at a retail price? In a lot of shops, they do not show the original price, Just 50% off in the spring sale. Let's take a look at our hobby. Yes, there is a retail price and a discount for the shops and businesses that buy the products. (The bigger the order the higher the discount.) Then there is the retail shop price. Normally about 15% off. the retail price. The model does not sell as well as expected so the retailer offers a higher discount 50 to 60% off. To move the product, You said that if they sell most of the items and there are only, say 10 left, so by selling them at a higher discount to a customer will not affect their bottom line. In this scenario, we are only talking about a single item. If this would, say happen across say 20% of the stock. Then that will hit the bottom line. As a lot of shops and businesses have found out and closed their doors. Retailing is a very difficult market to work in. Martin. (Thailand)
Hornby has plenty of bread and butter models that have been there forever that should be priced lower than they are. The Class 66, 37 etc. are all from Lima tooling
Already the doom mongers have been doing the "oh no, Hornby have raised their prices its the end of the hobby" talk. It will be interesting to see if other manufacturers follow suit on this and raise their prices. However the retailers will possibly do more discounting to make the prices more appealing.
I can't afford to buy brand new every time so I would say no sales are not bad thing or putting the hobby at risk, The only people putting the hobby at risk are some of the saler on ebay there are a few saler on their they think their Hornby, Bachmann, Accurascale ect etc and want stupid amounts for item or Items that have parts missing or don't work at all and then there is the other tip who know nothing about the hobby and have brought items to sale on ebay at stupid prices because it a way of earning money to them that all it is to them they about the money, they are more of a danger to the hobby than sale in model shop or on line .
There's not much I can add to the views aired on the Monday Club. Disregarding the steadily increasing price of the models, the big problem, for me, and probably many others, is the very long gap between a manufacturer announcing model X, and it actually appearing on the shelf. It can be two or three YEARS between placing a pre-order, and actually receiving it - and as we advance in years, or carry ailments, we begin to wonder if we will still be on this planet when the model finally arrives - and if we have already popped off, what will our surviving family do with it, as it may be meaningless to them.
Hi Jenny,
I do agree that the sales are not sustainable or ultimately good for the hobby however it must be said that the 'worth' of something is only what people are prepared to pay for it. They must see the value in what they are being asked to pay. I do feel that currently, Bachmann and a few others are well out of step with the market and what prices it will support - their new products are overpriced for what they are and they must revise their costs/manufacturing process to be able to complete profitably.
Other manufacturers have been able to do this and have set the benchmark now.
The price of the 'ERHEL' I mentioned on the last Monday Club is a prime example - if the mechanicals do not contribute much to the overall cost, you are basically purchasing a glorified coach - would you pay that price for a coach ?
The above is very simplistic I know however any manufacturer has to be able to bring goods to the market at a price that customer can and will afford otherwise their continued existence is bleak.
Finally, it's worth noting that Ferrari, Bentley and Rolls Royce have all gone bust on multiple occasions.
Hi Jenny
I agree with your statement about people feeling ripped off
Just look at the o gauge class 58 I paid full price for mine and now it’s 50% off and I do wish I’d waited and picked it up cheaper
I think that the hobby looks to be over priced when they offer sales at such reduced prices
Sales will only dry up if UA-camrs make videos telling retailers we have noticed it's worth waiting until they start discounting their overpriced models! A case in point: I very much wanted the Rails/Dapol D1 locomotive, but refused to pay the price they were asking for it on release. I knew it wouldn't sell out as the quality of the previous D locomotive had been questionable, and the D1 was also was raising some questions (i.e. its haulage capacity). Sure enough a month or so ago it appeared in a Rails "Flash Sale". I STILL didn't buy it, as I'm waiting for an even greater discount!
We already have a budget version of most of the Hornby trains, and that takes the name of the Railroad range.
Back in the 70s, the Hornby kept many of the same stalwarts in their catalogue for years. Now the landscape has changed and many models have very limited production runs and manufacturers have to maintain an exhausting quest for new models. I hope this trend doesn't lead to company failures and a sharp reduction in the huge range we enjoy today.
Thanks Jenny, this is an extremely well-argued and put together piece. I agree with much you say.
I was brought up in the book trade, both new and secondhand. There are some retail parallels and some key differences. Model railway producers seem to be in a post-Accurascale, post-Simon Kohler phase: Hornby used to supply a solid and dependable range of classics/essentials - the Shakespeares, Dickens, Jane Austens, Bibles and Dictionaries. Now it’s a Henry Ford approach - any loco you like provided it’s LNER. Their range development is in TT120 which is where they’re following the Bachmann/Accurascale/Cavalex philosophy of offering many niche variants of a very few types for strictly limited periods of time.
Adjusting to this new post-Accurascale world is why in part, I think, we’re seeing so many models dumped on the remaindered market so quickly after release.
Overall I share your outlook; grab the discounts while you can. Or forever hunt down secondhand models to source the specific fleets you desire.
Love the old tv ads. I had the Race n’ Chase slot car system. Awesome
The sale price is the default price now - Anything gets released by a manufacturer and it's on sale or discounted DAY ONE by Rails, so everyone else follows suit - nobody is going to pay £50 more when they don't have to.
Of course, this doesn't happen with Accuracale stuff I've noticed, they tend to remain at RRP for absolutely ages, but moving on.
The RRP has now become an almost arbitrary number, and the sale price has become the new starting point RRP.
You must ask the question, was it ever intended to be sold at full RRP?
Manufacturers must know what retailers will do, they're not daft.
I wonder, have these "discounts" been built into the price in order to somewhat 'protect' retailer margins somewhat?
"Oh look it's already got 15% off!😮😮 No more sales yet guys!"
But in actual fact, THAT is the true RRP - never intended to be sold at the listed RRP...
yes, the Carpet Right business model
I think we ALL like to visit the sales!! Sometimes we go out of our way to get a bargain!! I most certainly do!!
What is really bad here in North America is people wanting MSRP for used Locomotives and rolling stock. Why I usually only buy new.
Research and development is one of the key sections of a successful manufacturing company. I would therefore like to think that it’s one of the most important aspects of the business.
Once out of warranty products have a lower value to a retailler - hence they dump them cheaply. Simply put profits at retail ( and for manufacturers ) are large, hence they can afford to dump inventory to recoup cash.
Ebay is your friend as most dealers want to ask almost retail prices for used stock.
Different market but a local business had a franchise and the manufacturer wanted an order for £1,000,000 for 2005 - they got dumped as a supplier instantly.
You mentioned towards the end how EMUs particularly don't sell. Perhaps if manufacturers actually produced EMUs in a way that allowed modellers to accurately portray real life it might help. For instance Bachmann did the BR 2EPB, which always ran in company with BR 4EPBs, SR 2EPBs & SR 4EPBs, none of which are available.
Likewise the 4TC was produced, without the 4REP they ran with for much of their career
EMU enthusiasts seldom want just the one unit, but often it is years before a different runing number is offered for a given livery. One exception was the Hornby 466 which was offered with I believe 3 different numbers in one go, but again the 465 these units virtually always run with was missing completely
Although occasional EMUs are offered, a thought out consistent range has never occurred. Very frustrating!
Yes good point about the 4REP. I bought the 4TC and run it with a class 33/1 or 73 as a push-pull.
Hi Jenny. Another very well thought out and intelligent piece.
The market price setters are now the likes of Accurascale & Dapol. Others will have to follow if they wish to remain competitive. If the price of their new 08s is anything to go by, it seems Bachmann is not yet ready to re-align its pricing strategy, which seems to follow the "product lifecycle" model: start by demanding top dollar to attract the "innovators" & "early adopters", then reduce the price to entice the remaining potential customers, down to the "laggards", who will only buy at "fire-sale" prices.
Your Ben & Jerry's example also did for Debenhams: no-one bought anything at full price because we all knew it would be in a Blue Cross Sale within a month or so.
Totally agree Jenny I think the amount of new releases this year has been overwhelming and if you were to buy them all you would have to be a millionaire. I agree with one of the earlier comments that not everyone wants highly detailed models and there should be options to purchase both a basic and a high spec model of the same item.
Hi Jenny, I would expect it all depends on the manufacure's business models. If a manufacturer does a study or polls the public and decides to make a model and makes more than the market can absorb then I can see a surplus and sales.
Using Rapido as an example, they don't make an over abundance of stock and only make a bit more than the preorders. If sales and preorders are swift they will do another run. The RDC is a great example. i think theybare on its third run. They also space out reruns and I am sure Rapido monitors the resale market. When an older run can fetch more than quadruple its original price there may be a market for another run. Keeping and making just enough to make the market happy keeps them wanting more in my opinion.
Manufacturers are in a danger of losing sales if the prices keep going as they are and we are in danger of losing both manufacturers and retailers. I think some prices are high due to the amount of detail going into them. Why do you need a fully detailed underside to wagons or locos? It’s never seen. Are museum quality models the best thing to have as a norm, or would it be better to have less detailed models as the norm and have the super detailed models in a separate range for those that want it. Plus it’s getting harder and harder to even find reasonably priced 2nd hand models, the online retailers and auction sites want nearly new price for their pre-owned stock. For those of us on limited incomes these prices are unsustainable.
Hi Jenny, if they are able to reduces the price so much. The question is how much are they making on the item at the start. People can not afford these silly prices. I for one have cut back a lot on what I buy because of the prices .
The sad thing is that so many people consider the prices of different items too high to start with. When the manufacturer makes an item at a price point, one knows that the price will drop if the market demands it.
As regards the 'i just bought one, and now its reduced' problem. I remember ordering a YEC Janus 060DE from Golden Valley , when first advertised online, waiting a very long time and finally collecting from the Ian Allen shop at Waterloo . Since then I have seen the same model advertised at a discount as much as 40% off. I have also benefitted from the same discounting , I didnt choose to buy my Kerr Stuart 'Victory ' 060T when I first read of it. When it appeared in stock the price was highet, but I bought after it had been discounted and the price had dropped to the original pre-order price.
So its swings and roundabouts .
At the end of the day models are a business. Retailers have sales to return the cash to plough back into new products. Manufacturers sell off to again generate cash flow and to clear warehouse space. Sales have taken place in model railways for decades. Indeed that's what made Hattons the success it was, until someone thought that they could move away from what Hattons did well!
Hornby seems to be trying “carrot” (recent 20% off everything) and “stick” (recently announced price increase). I wonder which will prove to work?
See you on Monday for the Monday Club.
I only buy "bread and butter" models, they are priced reasonably, I have only bought one new HO locomotive and that was a Piko BR218 in a special Marklin-piko Cottbus locomotive shed collaboration paint scheme that was $100.00 because I had wanted that locomotive when that scheme was announced. That and I like the loco that was painted in that scheme.
I think manufacturers are looking for the 'ooh shiny' and FOMO approach because after a time, the models they are producing are competing against the second hand market. I don't see Hornby bring back the rather excellent J94 any time soon because ebay is flooded with second hand models, many of which are like new and sell for a price Hornby just can't compete with, even though they have not produced it for about 20 years now.
Hornby is a case in point.
It thought it was king of the hill and is now in trouble from the likes of Accurascale and other brands putting out better models for less monay and affordable payment methods.
It's exactly like the East Coast computer industry that was destroyed by the Californian entepenuers - they changed the business model and the East Coast died.
That's unfettered capitalism, for good or bad.
Hornby needs to follow Accurascale and bring the 'pay a small deposit on announcement and pay in three installments' method.
Allows ordinary ppl to get new models in an affordable way.
The alternative is the hobby will degenaerate into a two tier system where the ppl with disposable income will have niche models and the rest will have to grub for discounted or secondhand last generation stuff.
Having worked in the design industry and mobile app development I see the parallels.
That's my tuppennyworth.
I'll be honest, 90% of my stock comes from sales. It's the only way I can afford the hobby! (especially in O gauge- if I shop in sales I can get O gauge for a very small out more than 00)
Items are getting very expensive, and the cost of living is ever tighter.... without those sales I'd have less than half the stock I have!
I do agree that there's an ever higher turn over of new models coming out.... and I am not sure that is sustainable.
A sale, in reality a sale is 365 day a year, Spring sale, Summer sale, Autumn sale, and Winter sales. But what is the real price of an item? How do manufacturers arrive at a retail price? In a lot of shops, they do not show the original price, Just 50% off in the spring sale. Let's take a look at our hobby. Yes, there is a retail price and a discount for the shops and businesses that buy the products. (The bigger the order the higher the discount.) Then there is the retail shop price. Normally about 15% off. the retail price. The model does not sell as well as expected so the retailer offers a higher discount 50 to 60% off. To move the product, You said that if they sell most of the items and there are only, say 10 left, so by selling them at a higher discount to a customer will not affect their bottom line. In this scenario, we are only talking about a single item. If this would, say happen across say 20% of the stock. Then that will hit the bottom line. As a lot of shops and businesses have found out and closed their doors. Retailing is a very difficult market to work in. Martin. (Thailand)
Hornby has plenty of bread and butter models that have been there forever that should be priced lower than they are. The Class 66, 37 etc. are all from Lima tooling
If your hobby is messing about in boats then sails are a positive boon 😂
Already the doom mongers have been doing the "oh no, Hornby have raised their prices its the end of the hobby" talk. It will be interesting to see if other manufacturers follow suit on this and raise their prices. However the retailers will possibly do more discounting to make the prices more appealing.
I can't afford to buy brand new every time so I would say no sales are not bad thing or putting the hobby at risk, The only people putting the hobby at risk are some of the saler on ebay there are a few saler on their they think their Hornby, Bachmann, Accurascale ect etc and want stupid amounts for item or Items that have parts missing or don't work at all and then there is the other tip who know nothing about the hobby and have brought items to sale on ebay at stupid prices because it a way of earning money to them that all it is to them they about the money, they are more of a danger to the hobby than sale in model shop or on line .
They would be better if they where on models three or four years old. Not on ones just released.
Simple fact is stuff is overpriced and people are cash cows like these companies think we are.