"Rate Cut: Later Rather Than Sooner" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- Опубліковано 27 вер 2023
- Mark Bouris and economist Stephen Koukoulas return for their monthly discussion before the RBA meets on Tuesday, the 3rd of October, where the RBA Board will decide whether or not to keep the official cash rate on hold again at 4.10%.
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You both hit the nail on the head - necessities such as fuel, electricity, insurance and weather infected food prices, and such, as examples, SHOULD be excluded from the RBA in their determination from the raising or lowering interest rates. Companies like Woolworths and Coles SHOULD be forced to pay a super profits tax - there is no need for the ridiculous prices in their shops right now, THEY are causing so much pain for people - people NEED food. THEY are creating the problem right now.
So the government decided we need 7 star in new buildings which put the price up by another 20k and the reserve bank sees that and puts up interest rates.
Can we just sack them all?
Rates won’t go down until it reaches the real inflation rate which is around 10% at the moment.
They will drain super first so it's locked. Then they will deal with investors who are creating instability and draining disposable income. Goal strip investors of yields.
Super is now 11 percent, extra liquitaty in the system.
how does Koukoulas not understand this simple concept?
As a real estate entrepreneur navigating both residential and commercial sectors, I’ve often felt the intricate web of economic forces around me but never fully grasped them. Your discussions, Mark and Stephen, are like a compass in that maze. You break down complex economic theories into language that not only enlightens but empowers. Your podcasts have become a must-listen for me, enhancing how I approach my business decisions. Can’t wait for the next episode; you’re making economic literacy accessible for professionals like me. Thank you!
Bs! 😂
If you own your house outright and have substantial savings that are earning interest at 5 % you are laughing.
Inflation is much higher than the numbers suggest. I'm being bombarded from all directions by prices rising with whatever I buy. The local pizza shop has just raised prices by $4 per pizza. That's a 20% increase! Rates may or may not go up but they are certainly not going to drop as all that has happened is that they have normalised to their 30 year long term average which is where they need to be.
The interest rates are back to where they were in 2012. Interest rates were at 7% during the 2008 GFC.
💯 agree it much higher than quoted
Thanks again gentlemen, appreciate you sharing your time and knowledge. 🍻
I work for a large National domestic construction company and I can tell there is no way we are going to come close to those domestic housing targets of 1.2 million homes.
Our best year was 2017 and we are currently not even doing half that workload, we are actually looking at going back to a 4 day week for the rest of the year.
Agree with Mark. Exclude the inputs that interest rates don’t impact when calculating rates.
Brilliant podcast. Intelligent commentary, information you cant get in the mainstream
Mark making real sense at 14:00
Great discussion guys
I’ll take the bait, we should exclude food from CPI calcs if we are gonna exclude petrol lol coz we are all gonna buy food no matter the price.
Maybe we should exclude building construction costs when there’s a squeeze? retail sales on Christmas eve? The problem with exclusions is you can create a political argument to exclude things from time to time to suit the day. Then you cannot compare a CPI of yesterday with a CPI of today because it measures different things… To the contrary I think there should be zero exclusions.
It's oil prices and a crashing AUD, Diesel powers this economy and it's in everything you buy at Woolies. Oil is everything. Plug $100 USD per barrel with AUD at 50ish cents or certainly low 60's into your model and see what you get
Unavoidable costs such as petrol, council rates and insurance should be regarded as doing the same job as increasing interest rates, because they reduce people’s disposable income!!!
These costs will continue to rise if interest rates aren't lifted because the AUD/USD is floundering. And it's floundering because the RBA hasn't risen rates fast enough to combat inflation. Basically we're importing inflation.
Yes Canada new Zealand etc r on hold, they're already an entire 100bp ahead of Australia. We r way behind
End central banksters
People with owned assets sweet
But the business environment is absolutely terrible.
People probably spend $60-$120 a week on fuel and $700-$1,500 a week on rent/mortgages. Interest rates are for controlling debt based assets (stocks/houses/related good and services), not fuel. Why would we allow the RBA more excuses to not raise rates because fuel is up? Paul Keating was all about, raise rates, crush asset prices. The assets are still there its just the owners change!
Let’s the ACCC have a look at Coles, Woolies and other big companies price gouging having an effect on inflation.
You can’t pay your coles bill at the checkout with a 10% increase in house price 🤔 not sure how the psychology of feeling weAlthy converts to an increase in spending because it’s not a real increase in liquidity ? Anyone help explain this .
It's psychological, if you feel wealthier, you'll buy more 🤷♀️
@@joanneburford6364 with imaginary cash ? 😳
So true! What punters do is go and remortgage their house (withdraw equity), to literally pull cash out of their piggy bank house and go spend it when house prices go up. This has happened for the last 40 years, but it doesn’t work well going forward when interest rates are due to structurally increase for 30 years.
These 2 need to brush up on their maths - 0.1% of a 100k is $100 per year interest not $1,000 - that’s taxable income too : )
HOW ARE THE OWLS MARK?
Y
1655
Inflation at this time is not consumer driven, putting up interest rates only makes people suffer
Mark people like you get a seat at the tabe that the middle and lower class will never get. People like you need to lobby the goverment to scrap negative gearing and pull imagination back to sustainable levels. Give the little guys a chance.
Rates will probably keep going up, until 2026. We are in the land boom, just like what happened between 1983-1989 and 2003-2007. Sound familiar? There is an 18.6 year land cycle that has been repeating as far back as 1800.
Got any charts to share? Whats the basis for the land cycle period. Seems very precise a number.
@@ichrisone There is a huge amount of data that backs this up but you won't hear mainstream talking about it.
Read = The Secret life of Real Estate and Banking by Phillip J Anderson.
Is that you there Phillip Anderson?
🤙
Inflation has increased so interest rates will increase next month (October 2023) by 0.25%. Why has inflation increased? Fuel prices and house prices increased.
You cant talk about inflation without talking about money supply. There has been about a 340%!! increase in the M0 base money supply in Australia since 2020, just 3 years ago.
To put that in context in the space of 3 years we pumped as much money in growth terms as you would expect in 20 years!
Think about what things cost in 2000 compared to 2020 and that the difference we will experience very soon
develop substantive choice republic
Just shut the front door people
So we’re all getting poorer as everything is going up, but these 2 guys want to use an artificially low cpi to mask inflation? High petrol prices affect way more than just filling up at the bowser lol. This is why you shouldn’t take UA-cam too seriously, treat it as entertainment : )
Gverment paying for vaccine
Stephen K is wrong. Nobody “benefits from high interest rates” saving in a term deposit. The fact rates might be 5% when inflation is higher means these people are going BACKWARDS. It is a ludicrous statement anyone benefits from hi inflation. Stephen K is a typical Keynesian economist who just does not understand where inflation comes from. You never hear him criticizing the poor fiscal management of socialist governments - which is the primary cause of the problem.
Boomers win again. What a surprise
Buffoons