"Panic in the marketplace" Mark Bouris & Stephen Koukoulas Monthly Update
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- Опубліковано 29 сер 2024
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Property Insights with Mark Bouris returns with our expert guest, leading economist Stephen Koukoulas, to discuss all the latest market updates for this month, ahead of the RBA's next announcement in August.
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The RBA's biggest ever mistake in its history was to drop rates to 0.1%. That caused a massive increase in housing prices and a big spike in inflation. We should never have gone below 2%, because a jump from 2% to 4% is a lot smaller than a jump we've just had recently ....
I agree that it was incredibly drastic but I didn't think they had any choice back then because of COVID.
Agreed . And also the money printing madness of 780,000,000,000 dineros in 14 months.
@@manflynil9751 shhhh it was not the money printing..it was putin
@@manflynil9751 Yes, there was a metric ton of Aussie Pesos printed in that time
Yes rate cycling whiplash effect.
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Prosperity for all Australians is part of the RBA charter , how are monstrous house prices a benefit to all Australians ? How are ridiculously high rents a benefit to Australians ?
@vincentcacciola7161 Replace "all" with "old" and everything becomes clearer 😉
How can the RBA fix those high rents with interest rates?
The RBA is overly concerned with avoiding a recession that damages market confidence on their own watch that they haven't much considered the lag effect of their rate policies. Like many great comebacks, it should rely on the strength of the Australian people for ingenuity and productivity instead of beating us down with a stick of rising cost of living.
Has the board ever pointed to a rate hike?
Prosperity...seriously??? What % of Australians feel they have a better 'standard of living' over the past 5 years despite the Property& ASX markets experiencing the ' biggest bubble' in history???? Be alarmed!!!
You need to be earning a combined income of 300 k to be living a good life now in Australia
if the good life means..living in a shoe box and doing 12 hr days
only those with assets get ahead these days in straya..working hard has become irrelevant in determining prosperity..how much mum and dad's house or grandma's house is worth will determine your financial well being
300k... you'll be lucky if you're left with pocket change
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Not a bloody mention on immigration.
Indeed, the biggest cause of the living standards falling.
For decades, higher interest rates from savings were considered good as it helped those who wanted to save. Now, this channel included, rate CUTS are advertised as a mechanism to help everyday Joe while in fact it will only help the rich to get more debt that the poor will be forced to pay for.
If you don't like capitalism you are more than welcome to go to China. Sounds like its more your pace, you can all be "equal" over there
Well said sir. This channel is not impartial. They are cheer leaders here for asset prices rising through inflation.
@@yeahnah773 Exactly. This guy has a bloody mortgage broking business ffs
Exactly. Well said.
This show's primary goal is to get people to take out more loans. Go back and have a look at past shows these two are BEGGING for rate reductions while other shows are saying increase or stay at current rate. Snake oil men !
It is people like these podcasters that Australia is in so much economic trouble. Interest rates need to continue to go up in order to save the economy.
You’re clueless if you believe that.
Snake oil men show
Wow! You are a genius! Put the interest rates up and all the small business goes to shit!😂 A lot of people are getting fired already and the data is legging 6 months…
Young home owners with new mortgages are really struggling…
Way to go Einstein!
@@paraustralia low interest rates ll result in large corporations borrowing more and they will crush small business. Do you know these large corporations can borrow at a much lower rate than you or I?
@@paraustralia the issue with small business closing down is not due to high interest rates but due to 0.1% interest rates for a long period of time.
The "Easing" and "Tightening columns should be changed to 'Increasing" and 'Decreasing". Easing and Tightening definitions are context specific and not universal against the economic factors listed in the table
I watched there video few months ago saying rate hikes won’t go up again 😂 got no idea
Speaking of insurance, my home and contents has risen to a point where I just cannot justify or make sense of, other than pure greed. $239 per month two years ago to $459 per month….HOW. This is GIO, they have no real justification for it. You must shop around as I did. NRMA quoted me at $260 per month.
This is now referred to as a Loyalty Tax.... Power Companies, Telco's, ISP's... Everyone is in on it..... If you don't shop your utilities or Insurance every 6 -12 months, you have to be stupid...
Had the same thing. We ended up shifting but it still went up $1500 annually and no broker could find a cheaper alternative.
We went from RACQ to AAMI.
They’re telling you that your house is located in a higher risk area. I pay $350 PER YEAR for 450k building insurance
Inflation is 6-8%.
Dont know how u can't see that.
More like 15-20% if you include house prices
People are struggling because of the compounding effect of inflation over the last few years. Not because of interest rates., though for some maybe.
You're talking about 4% inflation on top of about 20% over the last 4 years. People with mortgages have seen that rise in their asset values which they can then cash in for equity to continue to spend, despite mortgage rates.
Yet you complain that .25% on top of 4% in interest rates will be the straw that breaks the camels back.
You only ever look at what you're interested in.
Mark B has long believed that monetary policy should be dedicated at maximizing incomes of housing lenders.
@@dweller6065 best comment yet
I can tell you why interest rates need to go up. House prices are still going up. Simple.
Need to build more to get prices down
My Opinion: House prices over the longterm in australia (to date historically) has been up and to the right. so saying house prices are still going up should not be a surprise? The housing crisis is a supply and demand issue, we had 13 consecutive interest rate rises and house prices have sky-rocketed. You think that 1-2 more .25 basis point rises will decrease home prices!? Only thing that will slow price growth is supply catching up with demand, and that cannot occur if interest rates stay high.
Not in Melbourne.
Crazy times. Can't build more homes if interest rates keep going up.
Inflation happens when there is a greater supply of paper money than goods and servicers in the system. This increases the demand on the limited resources. Increasing the interest rate (the cost to borrow money) is a nasty tool that politicians use to make everything you buy more expensive and forces people to become "thrifty" so there is less demand therefore "balancing" the supply and demand. We have more paper money because we borrow US dollars more than we actually produce inside the country.
The cash rate is not a tool to control house prices. That is more driven by supply and demand being out of balance, to bring house prices down there needs to be more supply, less immigration and overseas investors need to be stopped buying Australian residential real estate otherwise as we've seen prices will go up regardless of what interest rates are doing.
High interest rates make it harder for builders to actually afford to run a business and build houses, so putting interest rates up will likely restrict supply more causing house prices to go up, this problem needs to be addressed at the source (more supply, less demand)
The current inflation rate is about 50% above the RBA target rate of 2.5% .
@@jvvoid You're grasping at straws .
@@stewatparkpark2933you do realise rate rises now won’t affect the economy for 6-12 months, rendering them functionally useless in this scenario where inflation needs to drop 0.6%.
@@jinshin8991 Inflation needs to drop about 35 % .
Inflation is such a bs number because my inflationary items are different to yours one size does not fit all on inflation value of dollar has halfed in last four years in my inflationary things that matter to me.
I think the govt have told the RBA not to mention GDP per capita...lol
Well based on the traffic in Brisbane over the last several days, South East QLD is booming.
Up at Noosa on the weekend, things were busy! It's not school holidays and it's winter!
And Brisbane house prices are still going up 16% annualized.
I suspect we need a rate rise.
There is panic because they realise the rates aren't going back to 0.1 😅
Regardless of all this, Australia's major cities from now on will always stupidly be some of the most expensive places to live in.
Food prices under control???
2 grapefruit 2 oranges and 4 apples cost me $14!.... 😢
I'm not sure this guy has assessed the risk of stagflation, if our inflation is now cause by economic decline instead of economic prosperity then we're in for higher rates to prevent declining currency and capital outflows. Could be a very bumpy ride.
STAGFLATION the clear & present reality coming to a country ( Australia)$$$$$🎉🎉🎉🎉 that's you😢
THEY obviously dont know that chicken was $9.99 a kilo last year and its now nearly $20.00 %%%%%%%%%
Love Stephen Koukoulas, I wish he was on more often!
The point about Consumer confidence is not talk enough and thank you for bring it up. I have check the chart, 80 levels reading happened in early 1990s, 2008-2009, covid 2020, and November 2022 to now....
Id just like to go out for a coffee with Steve and chat about the general state of the economy and hear his sweet patient voice. That is if hes the same in person as he is on this channel? If its possible please reply back here.
You guys sound real and friends of the past together👍
This seems like the worst period.
Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!
Turkey has an inflation of 67%. We have 3.6% or thereabouts. What planet is the RBA on ?
The other RBA strategy is this... Keep rates higher for longer in comparison to other nations particularly USA to appreciate the AUD and then you import disinflation on consumer goods, agricultural inputs, fuels, etc. The AUD has jumped 3c in a week or two... We need to remember the forex market is many, many times larger than the world's share markets.
Jumped 3c in a week or 2 it’s been 66 for months hit 67 for a day back to 66
@@Tony-tk8tg First Fed cut will see it jump.
With all due respect and please I’m asking wlth sincerity … what happens if the rba slash the interest % 2 fuel drops to $1.40?? What would happen?
Would we fuel the economy by spending more which is better for all economies ?
I also saw a leading global economist explaining inflation causes inflation? Is this true could someone share some insight
@21:20 - 10 years ago this discussion would of slowed the crazy growth of property in Sydney by increasing interest rates sooner. However, the challenge is managing peaks and troughs as Melbourne has a slow market and Perth has a hot one. Not all markets are equal.
I was told by a well connected Sydney finance guy that retail rates were going to be hiked to around 7% within a year or two.
That was mid 2021. I thought he had rocks in his head, and said that will never happen because it would obliterate the economy.
And, here we are. I wish that I’d taken him more seriously and fixed rates for 5 years.
Defo high interest rates up, pull the horse up on immigration.
So why not age bracket the cash rate? The older you are with on average higher access to funds and disposable income the higher the cash rate the bank assesses you on.
Can someone tell me why petrol prices are cheaper in country areas than they are in the major cities? It has always been the opposite as country areas had cartage etc factored into the price. Was on holiday recently and saw it for myself. Whats the go here?
These guys just talk absolute nonsense. I feel dumber for even watching 5 minutes as it popped up as a suggested video. The only thing they know and may get right is what coffee they will order over the counter. Dumb n Dumber economics 👍🏼🤣🤦🏻♂️
Did he just say food prices are good?
Very insightful...Thank you lads. Some advice fix focus on your board and turn off autofocus....😵💫
Great board position. Thanks Mark & Stephen
Yes the lag factor has to be considered, when unemployment numbers are rising. Many people would be close to have exhausted their buffer savings, so could be approaching a tipping point in terms of their capacity to absorb further rate rises. They would want to aviod a market collapse. The concept of state based interest rates is an interesting topic. Perhaps cigarettes should not be included. In fact I would suggest only fresh vegetables and meat, dairy, gas, electriicity, fuel and medical costs should be included.
Oh man - had to drop what I charge to what it was years ago when everything was still 50% cheaper 😢😢😢.
People are struggling, and many businesses are shutting down - they can't wait any more 😢😢😢
Include land in the CPI calculation. It is the item causing the issues we are feeling right now...
You’ve managed to explain the current economic state In a way that equals what is realistically happening out here with the punters without gaslighting us into thinking ‘it’s not that bad’ and in a way I understand.
I actually watched the whole thing, put down my phone i was playing games on and my eyes didn’t glaze over.
What about getting a fair share from all those LNG Exports and other resources we give away for literally pittance compared to other countries who export resources??? Why not have a tax system like Norway where the revenue you receive goes into a sovereign fund?? Why not keep some of that GAS for local use and bring down energy costs?? It is ridiculous that energy companies are hiking gas prices in august when we have literally gas coming out of our ears??? Don't give us the BS that taxing would discourage investment!! Norway taxes natural resources like oil and gas 78% and they are still begging to invest there!
You could also stop paying rich people 5% interest because of high interest rates so rich people will stop spending!
You mean the people who saved money instead of borrowing at 2%?? Yeah okay.😂
I just want to say a huge thanks for this podcast. Such valuable information!
The interest rate cost for Australia borrowing money on the overseas market will determine the national interest rate.
The government need to pause overseas migration and foreign property investment by 1, 2 or possibly even 3 years until our domestic economy can catch up . Yes it will destroy our GDP number and technically this will cause an economic recession on paper however this would be for the greater good for us all long term. There simply aren't enough houses being built to meet the population demand and the flow on effect is brutal. The government have failed us in this department and they are not acting quick enough to fix the problem.
We should look at inflation per state, inflation is probably sticky due to the fact that the increased interest rates put considerably more pressure on Sydney mortgages. You can’t hose down consumer spending in the nation by hitting NSW hard and going light on the rest of the country. The cost of living is disproportionate in Sydney compared to the rest of the country. The RBA scratching their heads what a bunch of dills.
The GDP deflator is the other measure of inflation, not just CPI.
How you could talk about inflation for an hour without mentioning energy prices and relagating food prices as a secondary consideration is beyong me. Only 30% of Australians have a mortgage and 20% of those own more than one property. Also why only refer to iron ore when discussing export revenue? Coal and Gas exports provide more than double the tax revenue of iron and that is increasing while iron ore revenue is rapidly decreasing from a peak in 2022.
many people in Australia are secretly proud of housing prices, and will do anything to keep them increasing! Pity the poor mugs reliant on home loans, but that is the country!
the interest on savings well and truly makes up for inflation. Hoping they keep raising interest rates.
The stimulus checks were the wrong thing to do, to cover up the wrong decision to lockdown.
The poor old RBA can't put a foot right! Prices are out of control. and some groceries are not available any longer! I keep looking for olive oil at a reasonable price. Just not available. Australia is between a rock and a hard place, but venues such as gambling and sport continue to rake in the profits!
you guys are talking about jobs as an important point and something people are ignoring (which it is) but jobs have a whole lot of parameters that feed into it. We are not the Australia of yester-years where the industries needed bodies to do work. Our manufacturing is gone, alot of tech industries are outsourced, there is starting to be a shift into AI to reduce existing roles and hire less, the business I run uses it a lot and it has such an effect in our industry that we can reduce our hiring by a huge number, so looking at jobs also - (like inflation) isn't as simple as it used to be.
Reducing the rates and expecting businesses to pump ( as they used to before ) might not be the case this time. It could marginly for some industries but for many others the rate of employment in those will stay as they are and even start to fall. The only thing that lowering rates will help pump, is the building industry, which seems to be all Australia has. Everthing else will keep reducing and going offshore, so the problem is a lot deeper then just the inflation number and the employment number. The levers dont work how they used to and Australia has not re-adapted those levers - unemployment will be a rising number in the years to come simply cause industry has changed and Australia has not.
Im not going to say what the band aid is but sometimes its just easier to let things rip and take that band aid off fast. Over the long term, productivity numbers, job numbers aren't going to look any better and GDP, that will just reflect people spending due to their assets increasing but not through actual real value generated from exports.
The fact house prices are not there, because inflation is way higher than we are assuming because of house prices. thats why im saying higher interest rates for longer.. stagflation for sure
You economists don't count home prices into the CPI, otherwise inflation is more like 15-20%!!! Not 3-4%!!! Interest rates must hit 10%!
Sure, here's a revised version:
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I'm confused. A few months ago, you had Robert Kiyosaki discussing the world economy and seemed to agree with his views. Now, you're hoping for rate cuts? There's already too much money in the system! No more rate cuts-recessions are necessary to clear out inefficiencies. While I'm cautious about what I wish for, I believe we can't achieve a better future without a recession
No one talks about how mandates have impacting job rates.
Lockdowns and jobkeeper are the reason we’re in this mess.
Is the RBA driving Australia into Stagflation?
Australia cannot be immune from the high inflation in USA where the rates are far higher than what is being announced officially.
I think the Australian dollar should be part of that chart
Maybe the RBA increases rates by 0.15 to 4.5% 🧐
We could never fix it for 30 years 😢😢😢
Stephen emphasizes recent changes in certain activity indicators and fails to take account of position in the cycle. Because hours worked, very strong. Output gap, probably slightly positive, export income weakening off elevated levels. And he fails to take account of the forecast horizon. The RBA wants inflation inside the target band by at least the end of 2025, early 2026 and this is looking more and more difficult to achieve. Much depends on strength of CPI data come July 31.
not once was Treasury brought up in this entire conversation 😂 clear lack of depth/knowledge in this dialogue
if the interest rate is increased our dollar gets better and this would effect the price of petrol!
Food prices are weak?! Do you guys shop? Do you go to butchers and supermarkets? Inflation is minimum 10% on everyday goods. Employment growth is based on government NDIS expenditure. Private industry is in recession. Professional services are in recession. We have been in a recession for a year.
The Kouk ‘I can’t find anything strong but inflation’ 😂😂 lol….THE RBA MANDATE IS INFLATION!! What a dick.
A banker and economist talking about humanitarianism, in case anyone didn’t realise these videos are pure satire…
They don't belong to the tribe bud, usual stereotypes don't apply
Incredibly unfair comment
Anybody who thinks these two don’t capitalise on market conditions for their own personal gain are naive. This channel is purely to try and generate PR and promote themselves.
It is people like these podcasters that Australia is in so much economic trouble. Interest rates need to continue to go up in order to save the economy.
I have no problem with them making gains in the market place. They're atleast making us aware of the conditions we're in.
Modern society is so awful. I will never understand how people can bring children into this disgusting situation.
Yeah Americans with long term fixed rates arent affected, but someone loses as its made the banks balance sheets go underwater. Bank crisis is looming in America.
The government covers the loses. One of the reasons they’re in so much debt lol
Rate movements are done to strengthen or weaken a currency.. nothing more
@@Jrdn549 minus the fact that you pay more or less for money of course
House price go up
the strayan debt economy..blah blah blah..bring house prices down and we would not have been worried about 4% interest rates
It's all Greek to me....
I like where Mark Bouris is coming from..... The current formula is broken..... Raising Interest Rates is like hitting a nail in with a Stiletto.... Hit and miss... With more miss.. Make the GST Dynamic.... Everyone has forgotten that is was designed to be a broad based Tax.... RBA interest rate movements targets ~34% of the economy.... The GST targets 100%....
Where does 34% come from? The other 66% owned by?
34% was years ago data - todays near 70% of Australian’s have loans they forget to mention the bank of mum and dad’s equity loans are not being counted, they are a massive amount of borrowed money. Massive
@@vincewant6325 ABS data.... In that year around a third of Australian households either rented (31.4 per cent), owned their home outright (29.5 per cent) or were homeowners with mortgages (36.8 per cent).21 July 2023 Real data talks..... BS takes a walk....
@@Mosesk1988 Who watches these video's.... Australian households either rented (31.4 per cent), owned their home outright (29.5 per cent) or were homeowners with mortgages (36.8 per cent).21 July 2023
@@juxtarepublic6106 ?? Very weird, look at the data of The Bank of Mum and Dad !!! Check as the
Amount of equity they have used is in the amount top ten banks. Bs ?. Bs is data and saying inflation has been 4% or 8 etc - take a walk if you cannot get real information as its not 30% now - you do know if Many thousands of Mum’s,dad’s ,grandparents get equity loans they now have morgages data estimate’s at approx 140k average.
Corruption. What are they talking about about.😂
it's😂 called fudging , like you both know , but wont say or admit
These pelicans never get anything right! It's all guess work...
Greedy investors
I CANT STAND BOURIS
So why do you watch him? You’re wasting your own time and comment space
@@nitekon I dont watch him.
@@nitekon I didnt watch him.
Go up 3% get back to the real world 🥱