Will Prices EVER COME DOWN?
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- Опубліковано 27 кві 2024
- The Housing Market is back on the precipice of 8 percent mortgage rates yet home prices still seem unrelenting for many. Inflation now has the potential to come roaring back as the cost of living continues to skyrocket for most Americans. Is Stagflation on the horizon or is it already here?
#mortgagerates #inflation #realestatenews
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Today I am joined by a special guest, former mortgage broker/real estate investor Anthony Lisa, to discuss the potential economic impacts of this rising rate environment.
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Ben Grieco
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Coldwell Banker Sunstar Realty
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One of the advantages of being older is the experience of viewing business cycles in the long arc of history. What history tells me now is that the run up in prices will force the pendulum to swing the other way in order to bring the value of real estate back in line with economic norms. That could play out in a couple of ways. A drop in prices, or, an extended era of little or even no appreciation. In retrospect, the Fed created an economic trap when it lowered interest rates to near zero and it will take an extended period to work through it, not unlike the waves of inflation caused by the spike in oil prices starting in the 70’s, followed by inflation, followed by high interest rates. The first of my close friends to buy a house did so in 1982 with a 16% mortgage. As rates began to ease, real estate boomed all through the rest of the 80’s. History really is a great teacher. I think interest rates will stay up for a while.
you are absolutely correct, regardless of what all this pseudo experts state. I have been a real estate investor for 40 years myself.
The market is currently collapsing in the normal volatile markets first (like Florida) just like it historically does. The crash will effect those markets first and then flow through the entire country just like it's always done..
Wages are nowhere near keeping up with prices. "Not economists" indeed
inflation is like jet lag...............the minute you think "just a little nap" ensures you 3 more days of not getting adjusted
I really appreciate this analysis - thanks Ben!
With inflation at such a high rate, and housing costs the highest I can remember seeing in my lifetime, how can you say it is not a housing bubble on the down turn?!
We have been watching the Florida market for 3 years on a daily basis, prior to that I worked for several large property management companies. I have also bought and sold Re as an agent during the 2008 crash and was raised in a real estate builder/investor family, how are you going to sit there and tell people that prices aren’t going down? What data are you looking at? Florida- one of the largest populous in the country, our prices have dropped a whopping 20-30% in the past 3 years since the peak in 2021. We look daily! Because we’re one of those millions of qualified buyers that won’t buy into this stack of card market that’s about to blow. It is absolutely not in the realm of reality that the high prices of today can sustain.
Bubbles and crashes are historic patterns- in recent times, and in history over the past century! Can I predict a crash? I don’t need to. All of the evidence and data show that we are already far down on the 2021 housing price spike! Bubbles have never historically not crashed. So the evidence it will crash is stronger than a need for evidence that it won’t crash, so if you don’t see it you’re probably hoping to not see it.
It’s time for realtors to come back down to reality and admit that the market is not designed to stay in the favor of banks and realtors. Eventually buyers either can’t or won’t keep up with the over priced garbage. As the new construction houses are built at increasing quantities, the quality of the homes deteriorates faster. The market is saturated here with overpriced junk!
This is not about “the election year pull back.” Sorry, a 20% drop, I have seen as high as 30-40% drops in prices for some home values/areas over the past 1-2 years. If realtors would get realistic about what’s happening instead of thinking they can stop this crash, they would price homes at the “actual current market values,” according to “buyers market” as opposed to the denial and wishful thinking of the realtors prior to every crash. Instead of trying to convince the sellers that their homes are worth more than they are. The overpricing has always historically had a huge impact before and during crashes. It is all about greed and denial. The homes prices most of them, are not worth nearly what they’re priced at! It just won’t sustain historically or realistically. You can only ride that greed wave for so long. Average days on the market here in florida has increased to an average of 4-6 months and longer. The sellers are getting frustrated with realtors and doing for sale by owner instead because they are angry their homes aren’t selling! They’re not selling because they’re over priced by about 30-60%. The home is not worth $300-400-700k when they’re not selling in 5-6 months and the homes that did sell and appraise at that were sold 7,9,12 months ago!! The ones selling are the ones substantially slashed in price. Inevitably, when ever you have a market where the prices are dropping lower, they will most likely continue to be forced down as the appraisal will not appraise higher anymore, but it’s appraising on a downward trajectory due to current price slashing all around the neighborhood. It’s simple math.
You just cannot keep up the shenanigans. It’s time to wake up out of the greed dream if you want to slow this crash down. 😴
I've read that the US govt printing $1T every three months is rapidly leading to inflation because the BRICS nations are walking away from the dollar. Lots of the new dollars therefore stay inside the US and water down the value of our existing dollars.
Great information.Nice to hear truth. Thank you.
Interest rates are just getting back to normal. The super low rates of 2020 were an anomaly.
The slower economy might be the Fed's excuse to lower rates. The European Central Bank will lower their rates first. If they lower their rates the Fed might follow suit. Discussing the 2 Americas is very relevant. There are those who cannot make rent, and those who are buying million-dollar homes with cash. If there is a recession, the government will only spend more money. You provide a good talk show.
The FED already announced that they're not lowering rates in 2024 and possibly not in 2025. That's the final nail in this real estate bubble
Home prices are being propped up by the high-end luxury market. $1M + homes are still selling.
Exactly what’s happening
Good houses in good locations at decent prices are selling very quickly. Busy street, across from a school, poor shape lot, too steep, trashy neighbors? - houses move more slowly.
Ty
Great topic guys, Thank you
Our pleasure!
Inflation will keep going up since the US spends more than it makes! It appears the gov knew this was coming and has planed to open the residential market to investors! Prepare tp rent or lease since it is cheaper!
Don’t want to buy a house in case I need to retire to Costa Rica or Portugal! 😮😂
What will all the over leveraged flippers and investors do when their hard money balloon loans need to be refied?
Who cares what happens to them.
@@1969bones69anyone who wants this Ponzi scheme market driven by speculators to crash.
@@1969bones69anyone who wants to own a home and not pay bubble prices.
Probably go to the government looking for a bailout
Anthony brings a lot of insight on the economy. Please have him back. Great show Ben!
Thank you!
The Federal Reserve system is designed to be insulated from politics. The system works pretty good. Can you imagine a system where politicians adjusted interest rates to help them in the next election?
Stagflation will kick in when the next president kicks in
Stagflation is already here.
Stag flation is persistent.. occurs after 4 quarters
@@ralphjessee2688
Sorry but you don’t know what stagflation is.
It comprises 3 conditions: high or increasing inflation, high unemployment, and slow economic growth.
Factually speaking, normal inflation is 2-3%. The rolling annualized monthly inflation rate since June of 2023 has been only 3-3.5%. Hence we are not in an era of high inflation.
Also, unemployment is 3.8%, which is historically low. Hence we don’t have high unemployment.
Finally, the Q1 2024 gdp growth rate is only for a single quarter, and seasonal differences happen all the time. For example, the gdp growth rates in Q1 and Q2 in 2023 were each 2.1%. So, one quarter’s growth of 1.6% for Q1 2024 is hardly indicative of slowing economic growth.
There is therefore zero factual support for stagflation, despite what people think or what news pundits may spout. Facts matter.
That shit went over the first 3 replies, but I understand exactly what you’re saying, by the type Biden or Trump takes office in January, stagflation will be here
@@dr.michaellittle5611 Perhaps you calculate these sums using the revised data instead of the headlines.
We need to be careful how we consider actual effects. Prices are not going up!
It is more accurate and better represents the reality in an inflationary environment, the purchasing power of our currency is declining. The phenomenon is further exacerbated by the outsized (Inflation and Fiscal spending) driven market gains. (Look to the '70's)
Absolutely! The “prices are going up” is the lie and deception “they” want us to believe because it hides the real problem.
ONLY BAKED IN IF WE KEEP PAYING. Say NO
STILL OVERPAYING ON SMALL LOANS! FOOLS!
when they reverse split shares you end up with half the shares and half the divi. when tsly came out at $20 it waz paying a $1 in divi. as share price went down so did the monthly divi. now tsly share holders are getting 59c for every two shAres they original ly had. thats 30centz a share. same happening with defiances. divi keep shrinking and shrinkin
I am tired of lessening to the same rhetoric. Real estate will go down as it has no other way to go at all. Unless you want to sell to ghosts. Tax returns will not help the next quarter at all. Unless you think people want to be more in debt.
Love the phrase “no where else to go.” Spot on! Gave me a good laugh this morning.
Ben likes to think he’s called everything correctly 🤦🏻♂️
aaaaaaayyyyyyooo!
Japanese Yen just collapsed today so how that trades tomorrow as one of the largest economies in the World will be no small matter as both Europe and China must compete directly with Japan which will not be easy for either to do. If China which has a crazy interest rate policy even worse than Japan suddenly decides to go to War with Japan using its currency the impact upon the US and Candian Real Estate markets will be negative in a crazier way than is even currently true as suddenly foreign investors will be forced to exit and start selling at whatever price if any price can be had😅😅😅😅😅😅😅😅