Is it 20% to get a Wonder Pick card? Statistical analysis

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  • Опубліковано 7 лют 2025
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КОМЕНТАРІ • 272

  • @Bropenings
    @Bropenings  Місяць тому +36

    Happy Holidays everyone!

  • @superultraboy
    @superultraboy Місяць тому +363

    Always pick the same position, works 20% of the time all the the time 👍

    • @escapoplano7089
      @escapoplano7089 Місяць тому +10

      Especially, if it's a Trainer Card. They don't usually swap their position.

    • @Luxxotic
      @Luxxotic Місяць тому +15

      I always pick the same position. It’s a 50/50 chance, either you pulled it or not 😅

    • @sovietgreen9328
      @sovietgreen9328 Місяць тому +9

      I legit do this and feel like it works 50%

    • @doopness785
      @doopness785 Місяць тому +14

      I pick bottom right every single time.

    • @menyo2874
      @menyo2874 Місяць тому +3

      ​@doopness785 would be the closest to my thumb as a right handed player. No thinking, no guessing, just hit it in the easiest way possible. It's the lazy pick, and I'm here for it.

  • @EmeralBookwise
    @EmeralBookwise Місяць тому +96

    Considering some territories have actual laws requiring games like this to disclose their odds, if that 1/5 disclaimer was inaccurate the game makers could actually get in some trouble.

    • @esmo9728
      @esmo9728 25 днів тому

      i dont think this applies to non payed gachas, if im not mistaken

    • @mycharectercarries
      @mycharectercarries 18 днів тому

      well not really theres a 20 percent chance to get a card out of wonderpicks but it could be predetermined right like the odds would still apply but it doesnt matter what you choose

    • @EmeralBookwise
      @EmeralBookwise 18 днів тому

      @@mycharectercarries: Sure, but it really doesn't make much difference if it's an actual shuffle that we pick from, or if the shuffle is just an illusion and the game has already picked for us. Either way it's an entirely blind 20% what we end up with.

  • @alexkoto754
    @alexkoto754 Місяць тому +101

    since packs are determined as soon as you click "open pack," I assumed wonderpicks were exactly the same: the position doesn't matter because the game has already decided which card you're gonna get. In my head it sounds like it's simpler for the devs to implement too but i'm not a programmer so idk

    • @wall6587
      @wall6587 Місяць тому +35

      As a dev I can confirm that it is indeed easier

    • @malignentsin
      @malignentsin Місяць тому +10

      I would agree because
      I have self confirmed through using multiple accounts, that i can wonder pick a pack on one account. And if by chance i get that exact same wonder pick on a second account, the picks will be in the exact same position.
      Essentially ensuring that the second account knows exactly what card they want to pick. As long as the first account that wonder picked screenshots where the cards were located after they wonder picked.

    • @GiuseppeGaetanoSabatelli
      @GiuseppeGaetanoSabatelli Місяць тому +7

      Can't wait for someone to use a network data/packet sniffer to determine what the final position is before you click.
      Unless, of course, they're running the simulation of the pick on their servers and only transmit the results after you select.

    • @GiuseppeGaetanoSabatelli
      @GiuseppeGaetanoSabatelli Місяць тому +2

      ​@@malignentsinWait, you're sayimg the "shuffle" of each pick is the same for multiple friends who see my pack? (not just the unshuffled state?)

    • @malignentsin
      @malignentsin Місяць тому +2

      @@GiuseppeGaetanoSabatelli I'm saying the shuffle is predetermined. The cards will be in the same location for all friends who pick that exact pack. So the first person who picks it won't know the location they will have to sacrifice and pick one to find the results. but after the First person picks, they can tell everyone else where the location of each card is if they screenshot the result.

  • @wendyxu9088
    @wendyxu9088 Місяць тому +39

    I'm pretty sure it's very illegal if the developers lie about their odds.

    • @wargex
      @wargex Місяць тому +1

      Multiple government agencies in multiple different countries all around the world would love to find out they're lying so they can run the pockets of pocket. You are correct. They don't show the odds for fun, they show the odds to remain legally compliant with laws all around the world.

    • @chrisb.2028
      @chrisb.2028 Місяць тому +3

      It is if the they released the game in countries where laws mandate that transparency, there's a reason why some games aren't available or remove entire sections of the games on certain countries like Belgium because corporations simply aren't willing to comply with a law because of monetization reason

  • @cfalcon01
    @cfalcon01 Місяць тому +62

    It's funny that so many comments think they've cracked the code, and they all have different methods 😁

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +24

      ^The comment that cracked the code on the cracking of codes

    • @texastate6296
      @texastate6296 Місяць тому +7

      People forget with randomness that u get great pulls and sometimes get shafted.

    • @RvnFromJubilife
      @RvnFromJubilife Місяць тому

      gambler's fallacy is real

  • @davidw789
    @davidw789 Місяць тому +16

    My personal method is to just pick the position the card I want was already in before. When I get it I feel great, when I don't I at least don't feel like I might have missed it by picking a different position lol

  • @deadpark121
    @deadpark121 Місяць тому +15

    Right from the beginning i accepted that i was probably not going to get the cards i wanted from wonder pick. So i just always pick the top middle card. That way, when i don't get the card i want, I can at least say "Darn, i was just one card away"

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +2

      You were so close! Every single time

  • @apeckx5090
    @apeckx5090 Місяць тому +12

    When the game first started I decided I'd always pick top middle. Around 20 picks later and I gave that up because I missed every single card I wanted. I began just picking the spot where the card started and have nailed it like 60% of the time since then. I always keep an eye out to see if the card goes top middle anyways and I think I've seen it go there maybe 3 times in the hundred or so wonder picks I've done so far

    • @torioto
      @torioto Місяць тому +1

      I've been doing the top middle since day 1. I'd say 20% is right.

    • @apeckx5090
      @apeckx5090 Місяць тому

      @torioto yeah I'm sure I was just super unlucky in the start and am just getting super lucky now to balance out

    • @torioto
      @torioto Місяць тому

      @@apeckx5090 could be lol

  • @shannonobrien3697
    @shannonobrien3697 Місяць тому +7

    Here’s why I think wonderpick is predetermined before you select a card - I did a wonderpick a few days ago and missed out on the card I wanted and got a whirlipede. 2 hours later I think there was a lag in my game and I did the same wonderpick again (it was exactly the same cards in the same spots). I selected the card in the spot where the one-star card that I actually wanted was - and got the whirlipede again (then my game crashed) 😂 so I don’t stress about selecting the right card anymore - I don’t think it matters

    • @jakubskonieczny5750
      @jakubskonieczny5750 Місяць тому +2

      If you got a card in pull 1, and you open same pull 2 (same cards), it's still 20% chance for you to open the same card. It's not really low chance by any means.

  • @MaoSeraphine
    @MaoSeraphine Місяць тому +21

    There are no card turned around from where you pick one, it's fake, just like the carrousel, you just tap a card and the game selects one of the cards at random to give you, your choice doesn't matter. What many people will fail to realise is that this fact makes testing if it's rigged MORE important, not less important. If it really was 5 cards turned around and your choice mattered, then with a big enough sample size the chance to get a card would always be 20% but since the game generates a card at random we need to tests if rare cards really have the same 20% chance to be generated once we tap our choice.

    • @robinesch29
      @robinesch29 Місяць тому +7

      This can’t be proven just like the assumption that all 5 positions are different cards. As long as we don’t know if the server sends info for 1 card or 5 cards when you press the wonderpick, you can not say for sure that this is how it works

    • @Gavolak
      @Gavolak Місяць тому

      @@robinesch29we can’t test for how the game handles wonderpicks, but we can test for the actual result of wonder picks. We can see the percent rarity of getting a certain rarity based on what’s available, so with a large enough sample size we can see if the expected value is actually 1/5 or not.

  • @zachattach1030
    @zachattach1030 Місяць тому +2

    People don’t seem to understand it would be unbelievably stupid for the developers to go against the posted rates. Since this is technically gambling, if they went against their posted rates, there would be a huge lawsuit and the game would pretty much cease to exist.

  • @user-hf6vy8xc4i
    @user-hf6vy8xc4i Місяць тому +3

    I’m pretty sure it’s like the pack openings so as soon as you chose the wonderpick you want to choose a card from your card has been decided. Whichever placement you chose that card will be. I only ever chose bottom right, in the ‘free’ wonderpicks during events I must get the card 70-80% of the time.

  • @guilhermecaiado5384
    @guilhermecaiado5384 Місяць тому +1

    In the first 2 days I had the impression that I could follow the shuffle and was getting exactly what I wanted 100% of the times, than I realized that the shuffle is an fixed animation that could be skipped. Started to pick the same spot everytime (bottom left or "4") and never got anything I wanted anymore for a month.
    I'm changing strategies an will pick the exact same spot it first appear.

  • @skkele93
    @skkele93 Місяць тому +6

    It should be investigated whether or not there is a hidden "pity" system. As in, every x number of wonder picks you go without pulling a high rarity card increases your likelihood or guarantees you getting the high rarity pick.

    • @namicarrot198
      @namicarrot198 Місяць тому +2

      don't think so, I have failed WP 7-8 times in a row chasing Moltres Ex and still fail to this day. No succeed in between even on picking other rare cards.

    • @flowerknight4879
      @flowerknight4879 Місяць тому +1

      From what I can tell there are no pity systems in this game

    • @kronk0040
      @kronk0040 Місяць тому +1

      I'm currently on a 0-14 wonder pick loss trying to get mew ex. 😂 It still remains elusive.

    • @Jesse-lv2yo
      @Jesse-lv2yo Місяць тому +1

      Would certainly be nice!

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +2

      Pity systems aren't uncommon and are done in DENA's previous game Pokemon Masters. However there's not been any indication from previous or current game that there's a pity system where it isn't already stated.
      Pocket's "pity" system is the pack points.

  • @Xearrik
    @Xearrik Місяць тому +26

    This games RNG seems super sticky. This is a problem many RNG systems in games used to have a few decades ago.
    I know as you get towards the end of a collection, you should get more dups. But for me and people I watch pulling, it seems to happen very early on. As in instantly. I consistently get a dup of the first star card I pull well before I get 2 or 3 other star cards. It's happened with every single pack types I've broken open in the game. This isn't exclusive to the star cards. It happens to me with the diamond cards too.
    BTW, I didn't pull any of these from wonder picks. Like I had all my Arcanine before the wonder pick event. So I skipped it. From Pikachu I have 4 full art Gyarados 4 EX Arcanines 3 EX Wigglytuffs 3 EX Pikachu. 0 Blastoise if you don't count the one non-EX I got from wonder pick recently. Then there's other weird things. Like I have 3 Misty, 5 Lt.Surge and 0 Brock. He's a two diamond card... I've taken to try to wonder pick for him and missed the 1 in 5 like 10 times If you don't count the 1 times I missed it where he was on the board twice...
    Early on, cards are sticky, and later in the drawings cards seem to be slippery. It's so weird that this consistently happens. Like it happened with Gardevoir as well. To this day I never pulled a Gardevoir from a pack. I got both of mine from wonder picks. I have nearly 10 of a few other 3 diamond Mewtwo packs cards, but I couldn't pull a single natural Gardevoir. I've played a lot of RNG games in my day. This games RNG feels off. It's like it was back in the old gaming days. Odd patterns that make me feel like a crazy person. It's like the RNG was made around a trading system and certain people have better and worse odds of certain cards.
    With all that being said and even though I've been super unlucky on Brock wonder picks, I think the wonder picks RNG is normal. I've also gotten lucky with other wonder picks a lot. But the pack opening RNG feels so insanely off.

    • @Yoshy144
      @Yoshy144 Місяць тому +4

      "Odd patterns that make me feel like a crazy person" - this is exactly how i feel too!

    • @Xearrik
      @Xearrik Місяць тому +1

      @juliengarcia7417 Congrats!

    • @robinesch29
      @robinesch29 Місяць тому +1

      I agree, i pulled 4 wiggly 2* full arts in a row from pika packs. Not actually one after another but every 2* i pulled during that time was the FA wiggly…

    • @butwhatif2489
      @butwhatif2489 Місяць тому +1

      i got like 9 bruxish in my first week of playing lol

    • @15briangriffin
      @15briangriffin Місяць тому +1

      100% this. I somehow pulled a duplicate Slurpuff in my very first Mythical Island pack 😂
      I now need 22 of the regular cards for this expansion still so am taking my time with it but I already have opened numerous packs with nothing new inside which is always the biggest bummer.
      The developers definitely have the RNG negativity skewed IMO

  • @griffinkadar163
    @griffinkadar163 Місяць тому +1

    This is a great video. You do an excellent job of explaining the statistics and also clarifying the relevance of not having enough data!

  • @SkinnyB0nez000
    @SkinnyB0nez000 Місяць тому +2

    kinda late getting here but I've had an interesting experience with wonderpicks. I find that if I'm picking for a 1-star that is in the 5th slot it seems to follow a pattern as to where it ends up and I've been able to use this to get 7 out of the last 8 1-star cards I've picked for. for me if it was in the 5th position to end last time I picked it ends up in the 1st. if it was in the 1st it is in the 3rd. I haven't seen beyond that because I always get it by the time it's in the 3rd and then it resets back to the 5th. picks that don't have a 1-star but still have something rare seem to follow this as well but I never pick for 4-diamonds so...

  • @asadickens9353
    @asadickens9353 Місяць тому +5

    It seems like the initial starting position is the order in which the card comes in a pack. Since packs have different rarities for the cards depending on which order it is, that makes sense for wonder picks showing the 2 star in slot 5.
    One question I have is if 2 people get the same wonder pick, will the random assortment be the same?

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +5

      Item cards take the 5th slot even if 2 star is present ;)

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +4

      we have people pulling same pack all the time on our discord, it's never been noted the assortment isn't random.

    • @asadickens9353
      @asadickens9353 Місяць тому

      @@Bropenings Well I am satisfied with these answers! ty for the response ~
      If you discover that random number generator uses the username as a seed and therefore can predict the order, lmk! Cause I would love to cheat the system after attempting to get 8 Mews in wonder picks and finally got 1, when the pack I picked had 2 options!

  • @eka6714
    @eka6714 3 дні тому +1

    i saw full art volkner in the 5th slot in my wonder pick selection n i want it so bad but it cost 4 stamina, i dont wanna lose that many stamina so i searched wonder pick guide n saw ur video, i buy the missing stamina n picked it in the same position n I GOT HIM, thanks

  • @jellocat9244
    @jellocat9244 Місяць тому +2

    For me it’s usually the one that it starts as. Like it’s so common that it’s the same that it started. Just pulled a egexcute full art from a regular one choose the same one that it started with and I got it.

  • @rafayet23
    @rafayet23 Місяць тому +2

    My wonderpicks seem to lean towards the right a lot more than the left. Anyone else have the same experience ?

  • @BreezeFrostFang
    @BreezeFrostFang Місяць тому +1

    I do believe it has a certain pattern, but what matters is to remember that you can’t be 100% getting your chase cards. You will eventually miss some.

  • @yujj8
    @yujj8 22 дні тому

    The 2-star card position is not "rigged". It's just that the wonder pick mirrors the actual package that was opened. The rare card is more likely to be the 5th one

  • @jaym8988
    @jaym8988 Місяць тому +1

    For the 3 weeks before last week, if the card i want starts at the bottom right, I could pick it 70% of the time
    It was either the top left or bottom left. The other 30% of the time, it was in the opposite slot of the one I picked, or stayed where it started. They either switch it up every now and then, or pay attention to trends because it seems wonder picking has changed at least twice.

    • @halcyonacoustic7366
      @halcyonacoustic7366 Місяць тому +1

      This can easily be explained as random variance. Your own wonder picks on one account is a miniscule sample size.

  • @fadsey
    @fadsey Місяць тому +1

    I found the rare card usually lands in my least picked position, I’ve had decent success in manipulating the position of the rare card into a desired position.

  • @Jesse-lv2yo
    @Jesse-lv2yo Місяць тому +1

    I can't decide if I was disappointed in this conclusion or not. I'm glad the devs were being honest, but was also kinda hoping there would be a wonder pick "hot spot" if you will to help get better cards. Either way, thanks for putting in the work! Looking forward to the results after a larger sample size!

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      It would be quite illegal for them to state 1/5 and not actually give a 1/5 rate due to gacha game laws in Japan. So I think even from the start this was the most likely conclusion. If we had determined rates deviated from 1/5 statistically significantly (maybe p

  • @kibou5832
    @kibou5832 Місяць тому +3

    In the dataset it should be also important wich card is selected. Maybe its predeterment and shows us the card on another position when we pick any card.

  • @wowdajuju
    @wowdajuju Місяць тому +1

    Wonder pick analysis is all I wanted for Christmas ty 💜

  • @Zammorack420
    @Zammorack420 Місяць тому +1

    I just wish they positions ALWAYS changed - it feels so crappy when you pick, thinking it will at least be somewhere else, then ALL THE CARDS STAY... like dang feelsbadman

  • @AmericanKilljoy
    @AmericanKilljoy Місяць тому +6

    Anyone with a worry about this being rigged, look into the law of large numbers. You may think your sample size is representative of the population, but it's just a small possibility in the great many that all players may experience playing this game.

    • @arvy7765
      @arvy7765 Місяць тому

      No player is getting 5 1 stars in a row in 5 wonderpicks with only one 1 star in each. Nobody. Shit is so rigged. So fucking rigged.

  • @jellocat9244
    @jellocat9244 Місяць тому +1

    2:44 slash burner with the wolf’s rain pfp hah nice we are friends now XD

  • @jakubskonieczny5750
    @jakubskonieczny5750 Місяць тому

    btw i must confess i just nailed wonderpicking 4 times in a row (3EX and 1 two diamond i wanted). Chance for happening - (1/5)^4 = 1 in 625. It's still more likely than getting a God pack, which tells a lot about how uncommon it is.

  • @loafist2276
    @loafist2276 Місяць тому +1

    I feels like there is a pattern where card likely to go after being shuffled. Like down left would likely to go to upper middle or upper right. Based on my observation, can't 100% confirm it 😅

  • @MarkConway73
    @MarkConway73 Місяць тому +13

    in a GP, it's 80% chance to get a Gyarados, Salandit or Cubone.

  • @Muzzzah
    @Muzzzah Місяць тому +3

    I always pick top right, that way I'm not mad if it lands somewhere I usually go. Although I have noticed previously that a lot of rare cards that I don't have yet are top left more often than not

    • @ieatice
      @ieatice Місяць тому +1

      I usually pick top left, its my personal lucky spot and it works sometimes 😅

    • @arvy7765
      @arvy7765 Місяць тому +2

      I always go top middle. For the same reason as u basically, I don't wanna get mad for choosing a different location, knowing I must tap that 1 spot every single time, it's no longer on me.

    • @jakubskonieczny5750
      @jakubskonieczny5750 Місяць тому +2

      It's actually good system, because you actually got mad when you change the position or your system. For example I choose the diagonal position, meaning if position 1 - a pick 5, if 3 - 4 and vice versa. The middle card I stay on it. Sometimes I just go with a feeling though, choose to deviate from the system and then I'm mad I did it IN THE WORST momment. I "lost" 3 EXs this way when I shouldn't have. So now I stick to my "system" no matter what.

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +4

      I prefer bottom right, it's closest to my thumb.

  • @ghotyolocanisyn2880
    @ghotyolocanisyn2880 Місяць тому +18

    I always pick bottom right. Coz I’m pretty sure it’s predetermined. Also don’t wanna pick a different slot then the card I wanted is in the bottom right, too much emotional damage. 16 wonder picks I’ve done, 3 of them were losses, 13 were wins.
    1/5 1 win 0 lose
    2/5 0 win 1 lose
    3/5 3 win 2 lose
    4/5 7 win 0 lose
    I’ve picked from a 5/5 twice.

    • @ghotyolocanisyn2880
      @ghotyolocanisyn2880 Місяць тому +1

      Forgot I did 3 other 1/5, won 1 and lost 2. So 16 2stars and 5 duds.

    • @kchan1322
      @kchan1322 Місяць тому +1

      Same thought process here

    • @timstr5682
      @timstr5682 Місяць тому +1

      I also pick the bottom right, I just got once the card I wanted since the game launched. It did not turn out well for me though…not even sure how many picks I did already

    • @JoseGasset
      @JoseGasset Місяць тому +1

      ive been doing top right

    • @Hawkeye_Myhawk
      @Hawkeye_Myhawk Місяць тому +2

      I switched to top middle gang and haven't been regretting it. No emotional damage if I choose wrong

  • @jacobmusgrave1406
    @jacobmusgrave1406 Місяць тому +1

    I thought it was kind of weird that I've only found magnetite in the bonus picks so far

  • @brandontedesco7222
    @brandontedesco7222 Місяць тому +2

    Dude made a 10 minute video to explain 30 seconds worth of information...

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      The data collection took weeks. We're lucky it's 10 minutes single video and not a multi-part video series.

  • @DINKL8ERG
    @DINKL8ERG Місяць тому +1

    1,3,4 are my lucky spots I swap between them have had good success

  • @StanleyBMcShan
    @StanleyBMcShan 13 днів тому

    When you start Pokémon TCG pocket and do your first Wonder pick, you always seem to get the EX card. It makes me wonder-how is everyone 100% right about picking the EX card at the start? I think the cards’ positions don’t matter. Instead, the game randomly decides what card to give you after you click. That’s probably why there’s a slight delay before the card flips-it’s calculating which card to give you.
    I don’t think the shuffle has anything to do with it because the game already knows it’s giving you the EX card at the start. It feels like the game just wants to hand it to you, which is fine, but I haven’t seen anyone explain this yet. If you know more about how this works, please make a video! I’d love to understand if the shuffle really matters or if the card choice is completely random.”

  • @leosc24
    @leosc24 Місяць тому +1

    Absolutely, I was dumb (or ignorant) and thought that initially in terms of thinking it was rigged. Then I stumbled upon your video about God packs in WP and immediately became educated when studding the screenshots from WP results when testing packs or showing off individuals pack picks. It's absolutely random and any video like the 5 WP same "results" video is what's actually rigged or made with a huge amount of instances in order to get the results coincidentally. I'd guess the former as if it were the latter then that person must have been a child on break for the holiday's as they clearly wouldn't have had time to do literally anything else but creating alts and picking GPs using enough alt accounts to fill a super bowl game's stadium to the brim

  • @xren42o
    @xren42o Місяць тому +1

    hey man someone actually emulated the game on 5 devices with the same account and did the same wonder pick on all of them also choosing a different card on all of them and they got the same card on every account
    so either theyre extremely lucky or wonder picks are determined once you open them with a 20% chance of getting a card

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      I've seen that video. I'm not certain if the first instance already triggered a server response so that all others would show the same anyway. The test isn't done in 5 isolated universes as server interactions exist.
      However I do believe there is no "choice" from a coding mechanic point of view. I just don't know if that video is proof

  • @SandrinoEscobar
    @SandrinoEscobar Місяць тому

    So, if the card you'll get is predetermined (not the final position of each card, but the actual card), you'd expect for the initial position (in this case the 5th) to have a higher chance of being where the card will land, simply because people will most often pick a different position than that one.
    In this I'm assuming that the game predetermines the card you'll get, and just randomizes the final position on each one, based on your choice (first placing the card you're supposed to get in the spot you picked).

  • @jordandinatale1094
    @jordandinatale1094 Місяць тому +1

    Huge respects to Slash Bunner!

  • @rafayet23
    @rafayet23 Місяць тому +2

    Does picking the same position every time actually yield better results than not doing so ?

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      Not known to be the case

  • @dloljoas
    @dloljoas Місяць тому +16

    When you open a pack, the most likely position to have a rare or above rarity card is the last one, the fifth, thats why two star cards most likely will show in the position 5, its not rigged, it is the position in which the card popped up in the pack of your friend.

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +4

      Rarely they show in other positions, example:
      cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1321392084980334602/1321392085496107069/IMG_8224.png?ex=676d11c7&is=676bc047&hm=ddcbfac40dc415acb076f14683eb6a63531d742f4b1609a2e4196dc08d7489b0&

    • @JoJoboiWav
      @JoJoboiWav Місяць тому +1

      The order in which you get them in the pack is random. The two last rare cards can be shuffled when you open the pack

    • @DrDrao
      @DrDrao Місяць тому +4

      ​@@BropeningsThat's because while the '5th card' is always the 5th card, the '4th card' can be any of the other 4 cards in the pack. However, you're much more likely to pull a 2 star on the 5th card, which is why, it's showing up as the 5th card so much more often.

  • @paulo_lacost
    @paulo_lacost Місяць тому +1

    I don't think it's rigged for the starting position, it is just that, most of the time, the rare card is the last card in the booster, hence it's position in spot n°5.

  • @ScottCampbell-gx1mj
    @ScottCampbell-gx1mj Місяць тому +1

    Top card also bottom right on wonder pick. if you look close you can track it same with the others I have many times just pay attention

  • @ssebasgoo
    @ssebasgoo Місяць тому +1

    I think you're seeing the problem from a wrong angle. What if it was just ridge and the card you would get wouldn't depend on the position you pick? It seems possible considering the illusion of choice for the pack, it could be just another illusion. I think you should test this hypothesis with a statistical test : H0 would be "the position you pick doesn't influence the card you get" and H1 would be "the position you pick does influence the card you get". Since you have those rare cards poping in and there, you could keep taking them as an objective and keep traking the position you pick. But you need to adjust the test you're using and the structure of the database, you need to have 2 columns : the position you pick and the position of the rare card. Then you could do an anova to verify the hypothetis and if th p-value is higher than 0.05, it would mean the position you pick doesn't matter.

  • @drewgonzalez3617
    @drewgonzalez3617 Місяць тому +1

    IMHO, noticed card 1 likes to switch a lot to card 5. Same can be said with card 3 and card 4.
    (BTW- it really helps with hourglasses when there are 2 of 5 cards you are missing. )

  • @spiral7892
    @spiral7892 Місяць тому +2

    Had a God Pack Wonder Pick this morning. All 2 star full arts I didn’t have. Ended up with my 5th full art Vaporeon…feels bad haha. 4/5 to get a card I wanted. Rolled the 1/5. 🤷🏼‍♂️

    • @Hbrixx
      @Hbrixx Місяць тому +2

      I did the same last night lol

    • @spiral7892
      @spiral7892 Місяць тому +1

      Misery loves company I guess haha. I’ll have a couple Vaporeon to trade once that is available in January. I never flair my rarer cards so I have the extra copies to trade later.

    • @BaronElBardo
      @BaronElBardo Місяць тому +2

      ​@@spiral7892 Trade will be probably something with an assigned code so you can trade with real life friends.
      But we know there's gonna be a marken on reddit, discord and other places

    • @arvy7765
      @arvy7765 Місяць тому +1

      Yeah now imagine that pain 5 times in a row. Happened to me and I am telling you it's rigged. Don't believe otherwise.

  • @Leviathan_07
    @Leviathan_07 Місяць тому +1

    I must have the worst luck then because I have never gotten anything good out of a wonder pick, not even a 4 diamond

  • @17thshadow
    @17thshadow Місяць тому +1

    Never pick top Right and always pick bottom Right, works for me, and seems like your statistics back it up XD

  • @deyanime2871
    @deyanime2871 Місяць тому +1

    I hope it is. I neglected a spot my gut wanted me to choose. Missed out on a Holo Gyarados.

  • @eidkristo6107
    @eidkristo6107 Місяць тому +1

    The card u get is predetermined when u press the button

  • @ZenCrypto-ov8zj
    @ZenCrypto-ov8zj Місяць тому

    I use ESP to pick my wonder pick and have about a 70% win rate. I move my thumb around until I feel a ping in my hand. No lie it works.

  • @brunorodriguez7137
    @brunorodriguez7137 Місяць тому

    I don’t over think it, very simple when sniping those god packs.
    What ever card I already own I try to picking that same spot. More rarely do they stay in their same spot so at that point feels like 25% chance of getting the card. 1/4

  • @Kidynamo123
    @Kidynamo123 Місяць тому +1

    A bit salty for all the rare picks I did during the Lightning type Outbreak event and got exactly 0 Zapdos EX

  • @hugopokeOP
    @hugopokeOP Місяць тому +1

    I wonder if there's a connection between the order of cards the person pull them in (as in the order of the cards when they open a pack), and the wonder pick positions

  • @RvnFromJubilife
    @RvnFromJubilife Місяць тому +2

    even if you lose 10 times in a row its hard to say it is rigged cuz probability.. 1/5 doesnt mean you'd guaranted win 1 time of the five..
    i say this because, i just feels quite lucky with my pull.. tho not always win, but as f2p, i feel content with my limited pulls.. 😅
    and maybe someday, i will feel the contrary and said it is rigged out of anger because i never win..

    • @namicarrot198
      @namicarrot198 Місяць тому +1

      don't think so, I have failed WP 7-8 times in a row chasing Moltres Ex and still fail to this day.

    • @RvnFromJubilife
      @RvnFromJubilife Місяць тому +1

      @namicarrot198 yep i failed getting starmie ex 10 times(not failed 10 times in a row) and eventually buying them with 1000 pack points.. but i still thinking its just my luck..

  • @scoopy187
    @scoopy187 Місяць тому +1

    0%. The only time I get what I want is when the cards dont actually shuffle.

  • @nicolcuccovia4663
    @nicolcuccovia4663 Місяць тому +2

    What I would love to know is the probability of 2* showing in the wonder picks.
    If there is somethibg rigged is thst for sure. In two occasion I didn't have wonder hourglass or energy and they kept showing any hour, three and four times in a row. I was getting so mad.

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      We already did this weeks ago and verified it's 90% to never show. Highly recommend my god pack videos for a full explanation and all consequences of it: ua-cam.com/video/aE-qHe_VHdU/v-deo.html

  • @Element_Doom
    @Element_Doom Місяць тому

    I was able to get in my first gp yesterday and ofc got the only 1* 😭
    I really think it's not worth spending resources on wonderpick except godpacks, but gl getting into one xD

  • @DIGITAL27
    @DIGITAL27 Місяць тому +1

    I been picking the same cards for the past week nothing new

  • @GAMMAsaugher
    @GAMMAsaugher Місяць тому +1

    People will still think is rigged, no matter what, is easier to believe and comprehend

    • @arvy7765
      @arvy7765 Місяць тому

      5 wonder picks in a row all had only one 1 star card and I got the 1 star every single time. Tell me it's not rigged.

  • @Corey-pn1vv
    @Corey-pn1vv Місяць тому +1

    If the cards change position with a 1/5 probability for each slot. Then it doesn't matter which spot I am picking, doesn't it?

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +2

      The conclusion is it doesn't, but we're interested to collect even more data.

    • @Corey-pn1vv
      @Corey-pn1vv Місяць тому

      Thanks! Can't wait to see your next videos ✨

  • @Gabriel-bx3nu
    @Gabriel-bx3nu 8 днів тому

    It’s 20% for each card I already tried the 30% thing but sometimes it work and sometimes the card doesn’t even change the position.

  • @lugiareborn356
    @lugiareborn356 Місяць тому +1

    I think it is indeed rigged because the last 10 picks I've done before the card I pick is flipped to reveal my pick, it starts loading and I'm connected to my wifi network, plus I never got the card I needed from the pick until I got to a pick where there were 4 new cards so I got 4 in 5 chances of get a new card

  • @JobeSmith-dd4qe
    @JobeSmith-dd4qe Місяць тому +1

    Quality content!

  • @devonsmith621
    @devonsmith621 Місяць тому +1

    how do I add my wonder pull data for the spreadsheet?

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      Submit them in this discord forum post:
      discord.com/channels/653797609848307712/1306201797207265313

  • @lleyksummers1400
    @lleyksummers1400 Місяць тому +1

    hmm have u tested probabilities in godpacks? say u test outcome of 1* vs 2* Wonderpick? from my experience i think u getting a 1* is higher probability than getting 2*, but thats just me.

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      While this analysis was not for god packs, there's less and less reason to doubt the developers. We may do an analysis for god packs at a later point (we have the submission for it, but it's quite labour intensive).
      Again, it would simply be quite illegal/misleading/fraudulent to state 1/5 chance and not actually make it 1/5 so I don't believe they need to or would modify this for god packs.

    • @wargex
      @wargex Місяць тому +1

      I'm sure multiple government agencies in multiple different countries would love to find out they're lying about their odds. Especially with how much money the game has made. They'd be running pockets in pocket.

  • @whiteychampion
    @whiteychampion Місяць тому +1

    I speed it up then click before they move 😂 pretty sure it works 20% of the time.

  • @arvy7765
    @arvy7765 Місяць тому +1

    I am not kidding, 5 wonder picks all had only one 1 star card and I got the 1 star every single time. I am being 100% serious. Is something wrong with my account?

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      That's pretty unlucky (if you're joining god pack hosts).
      Lucky if you're just doing random picks.

  • @JoseGasset
    @JoseGasset Місяць тому

    Just this morning I tried to pick a 2 star Leaf, that was on the 5th position, and got it by picking the top right spot!

  • @porsche911c
    @porsche911c Місяць тому +3

    Aren't we fairly certain that the outcome of a wonder pick is determined once you select the pack to pick from? So whichever slot you pick is where the card that was chosen by RNG will appear?

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +2

      Wonder pick "pack" selection doesn't determine the outcome yet. You can close the app and the stamina hasn't even been used. It's somewhat different to the pack carousel.

  • @e3vL1
    @e3vL1 Місяць тому +2

    Did you try to freeze frame and follow the card?

    • @96andr
      @96andr 22 дні тому

      It has no sense

  • @micaelerykosoquila9575
    @micaelerykosoquila9575 Місяць тому

    @Bropenings kind of off topic, but recently we have a had a lot of members in the group harassing and just overall being not nice to hosts off god packs, i just hope we can do something about this.

  • @DevilFudou
    @DevilFudou Місяць тому +1

    what, i thought god pack is never in wonder pick??

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +2

      They can very rarely appear in wonder pick. In fact, even from friends' wonder pick.
      We have a lot of god pack hosts on our discord. Recommend watching this video first to understand how it works: ua-cam.com/video/aE-qHe_VHdU/v-deo.html

  • @MikeTsunyoshi
    @MikeTsunyoshi Місяць тому +1

    As an fyi starting position its not rigged, i had a 2 star full art gyarados on the 4th position so yeah

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +1

      It's rigged into 4th position in some cases, and I'll explain how in another video soon!

  • @kiamotoshan
    @kiamotoshan Місяць тому

    I have a feeling that the riggedness comes from the card you selected. I think less then 20% of the time you get a card you don't already own or a rare card

  • @aslamdarwish9405
    @aslamdarwish9405 Місяць тому +2

    my observation only became inconsistent once I look into godpacks,
    but I'm pretty certain that the card order is relative to the card dex number which is why celebi ex (4 diamond) can appear on slot 1 if the other cards are not before celebi ex in the dex.
    This applies to 1&2 star in non-godpacks, also explains why trainer cards can only start at either slot 4 or 5, and also where cards like gardevoir would start at relative to it's dex number.
    I tried looking for patterns in godpack but sometimes random 1 star cards get separated from the first row with a 2 star and then slot 4 brought a 1 star card back and so on😅

    • @RvnFromJubilife
      @RvnFromJubilife Місяць тому +1

      interesting, but sometimes i saw regular mewtwo ex on top middle..

    • @aslamdarwish9405
      @aslamdarwish9405 Місяць тому +1

      @ yea bcos a lot more cards are after mewtwo ex such as dark type, metal and colourless and of course koga/giovanni and 1 star cards too

  • @tolzaryama5672
    @tolzaryama5672 Місяць тому +1

    all the good cards #1 for me

  • @maserips
    @maserips 23 дні тому

    I just recently pulled full art Mewtwo on the first card.. not a god pack. Explain that

  • @MagnificentSlytherin
    @MagnificentSlytherin Місяць тому +1

    I've been trying to get Mew ex though wonder picks lately and so far still don't have it

    • @Dialga-n7l
      @Dialga-n7l Місяць тому

      Same it's the last diamond card I need to complete the diamond dex

  • @nicolas13684
    @nicolas13684 Місяць тому

    Good info, thanks for sharing!

  • @Hanaseria
    @Hanaseria Місяць тому +1

    Just today i got these show up on my wonders, seperately:
    Aerodactyl ex alter
    Mew ex alter
    Leaf 2*
    And i lost all of them
    I'll biased & salty, but i'll say its rigged

    • @arvy7765
      @arvy7765 Місяць тому

      5 wonder picks in a row all had only one 1 star card and I got the 1 star every single time. Tell me it's not rigged.

  • @nightsofsilver1573
    @nightsofsilver1573 Місяць тому +1

    so I'll just keep doing top right like always

  • @KarseFarrence
    @KarseFarrence Місяць тому +2

    We may never know the exact % of each card and their rarity but what we can be sure is that all 5 cards are not equal and will never have 20% exact.

    • @wargex
      @wargex Місяць тому +4

      It's exactly 20%. They don't show those odds for fun. They show the odds to be legally compliant with laws in multiple different countries all around the world. If they're lying, I pretty sure multiple government agencies in multiple different countries would love to run the pockets of pocket.

  • @SamSoulCWalk
    @SamSoulCWalk Місяць тому

    Sample size, statistical analyses, p value.. as a researcher I'm wondering if I look at scientific conference or mobile game pokémon

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому

      Scientific research of pokemon game!

  • @Auxxy
    @Auxxy Місяць тому +1

    tbh i choose bottom right and 8/10 i get wat i want so idk

  • @overscoreSX
    @overscoreSX Місяць тому +2

    TLDR?

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому +2

      Data supports it's not rigged against you

  • @M.W.2
    @M.W.2 Місяць тому

    Wonder picks are rigged so the game already give you a pre chosen card no matter the position

  • @dadman8474
    @dadman8474 20 днів тому

    Top left card game tap in 🙏🏽

  • @Nuphs8
    @Nuphs8 Місяць тому

    Slight flaw in the math. When you wonderpick say..... top middle. You can look at your already picked wonderpicks at the bottom and it says the top middle card is now in a different spot.

    • @Jesse-lv2yo
      @Jesse-lv2yo Місяць тому

      Depends on when they screenshotted

    • @Nuphs8
      @Nuphs8 Місяць тому

      @@Jesse-lv2yo yeah the screenshot you take when you pull it is sometimes different then when you look at your already picked wonderpicks. Hence why I'm pointing out the flaw in the method they recorded stats. Also the 5th position stat is flawed because out of the 30 people, it is most likely the 30 people also pick bottom right most of the time. So naturally that is going to have a higher percentage chance. Math is math.

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому

      There's no flaw, the "already picked" position follows the initial position.

  • @ampisbadatthis
    @ampisbadatthis Місяць тому +2

    people are overthinking this, what we should be considering is that DeNA and the Pokemon Company would be openly and actively committing a serious crime if they lied about the odds of a gamble that people can spend real money on. Considering that, its almost definitely just a 1/5.

  • @veeetox
    @veeetox Місяць тому +2

    Wasn't this already tested? And it always gave you the same card, it doesn't matter what position you select

    • @Jesse-lv2yo
      @Jesse-lv2yo Місяць тому +1

      Definitely not the case. They determined that the pack you pick in the carousel doesn't matter based on the coding. The coding for wonder picks determined it was randomized.

    • @veeetox
      @veeetox Місяць тому

      @Jesse-lv2yo that was like 2 months ago. I'm talking about a recent testing about 5 persons finding the same wonder pick, and it didn't matter what position they selected, it always gave them the same card 5 times

    • @Bropenings
      @Bropenings  Місяць тому

      You're asking if the pick is predetermined, this video data collection is asking whether it's a 1/5 rate to get the one card you want.
      Predetermined doesn't mean it is or isn't 1/5.

  • @hamzaelboudafi6220
    @hamzaelboudafi6220 Місяць тому +3

    I usually look at the line where the card i want is and i choose the opposite. So if it was at the top line i choose one of the bottom slots cause i feel there is a higher chance to it to change it place then stay in the same and it's working pretty well. I got almost the full celebi deck from that

  • @davidem759
    @davidem759 Місяць тому +1

    My tip based on experience is: if there are TWO cards that you want, pick from the 3-card row; since it has more cards it's likely that one of the two will end up in there.

    • @47.5melons
      @47.5melons Місяць тому +3

      You cannot improve your odds by excluding some cards because they all have the same probability to be the one(s) you want.
      In your case it’s still 2/5 chance to get the card you want no matter how you slice your pack, even if you only pick from the top row.

    • @47.5melons
      @47.5melons Місяць тому +2

      It’s not like a Monty hall problem, in that case by revealing what’s behind some doors, the probability is redistributed to the unrevealed doors as more information was gained.
      Here by excluding the bottom row cards you are simply “throwing away” cards without redistribution of probability.

    • @davidem759
      @davidem759 Місяць тому +2

      @@47.5melons yes, my "theory" it's not really scientific haha but everytime i do a wonder pick with two cards i need almost never they both end up in the bottom row. Maybe it's just a bias that comes from the fact that i have 40% chance to pick a card that i need

  • @Smok3_eyes_kira
    @Smok3_eyes_kira Місяць тому +1

    I have LITERALLY watched the card and picked it 10+ times in a row every single time it never fails. Or maybe it’s just intuition

    • @Jesse-lv2yo
      @Jesse-lv2yo Місяць тому +1

      This worked for me like 6 times in a row and now it does nothing. Better to just skip the animation.