This had me arguing with myself for a while so to try and sum it up simply As long as there are more wrong doors than right doors, you have a higher chance to pick the wrong one. Imagine it with 1,000,000 wrong doors. You're much more likely to pick any of the 99,999 wrong ones, so when your options are reduced to just 2 doors you should swap. There is a _small_ chance you were correct, but there's a _larger_ chance you weren't,
the crux is that your choice isnt retroactively made into a better choice by knowing one of the answers is wrong. if you had a one in a million chance of getting it right, then you havent been retroactively been made into a genius that picked a door with a 50/50 chance of being correct, its still the same door. youre effectively changing the question, its not "do you want to switch" youre betting on the fact that your first guess was probably wrong
That’s correct but Another way of looking at it (probably the less straightforward way but eh) is as follows. Let’s say you got it right the first time, which happens 1/3 of the time. The host opens a door, then tells you you can open the other door. given that you’ve already picked the right door, the other two doors are the same. In this 1/3 of the time, switching will make you lose. Now alternatively, you got it wrong the first time, which happens 2/3 of the time. Then the host rules out the other wrong door, and lets you switch to the correct door. In this scenario which occurs 2/3 of the time, if you switch, you get it right. 1/3 of the time, you’re in a scenario where switching is wrong, and 2/3 of the time you’re in a scenario where switching is right. It has nothing to do with the current choice between 2 doors, as is commonly and intuitively assumed, but instead to do with the probability you already got it right. As the comment before me said you’re banking on your first guess being wrong
@@Lylybeebee wouldn't it be 50/50? No matter your first choice, one of the wrong ones will always be revealed. Your new choice is like choosing between a completely unrelated 50/50. Of the three doors, let's say 2 is correct. If you pick door 1, door 3 will be opened. Door 3 is completely redundant as you didn't pick it originally and it was revealed before you could switch to it. Same problem for 3, just swap 3 n 1. If you pick 2, either 1 or 3 will be opened. Doesn't matter, you can't (or at least, shouldn't) pick the opened one. The door opened is never your original pick or the right one, so that door will always be redundant (I think, I'd love to be proven wrong, this is making my 'tisms fire)
@@billgatestrappedinthe7year909 but that’s the thing, your original choice does matter. If your original choice was wrong, then it becomes right to switch, if your original choice was right then it becomes wrong to switch. Your original choice being wrong happens 2/3 of the time, and your original choice being right happens 1/3 of the time. This means that in the switch, 2/3 of the time switching gets it right, while 1/3 of the time switching gets it wrong. That is to say, the odds of getting it right by switching is 2/3
Ok, so if anyone is still confused about how it works, the simplest way I can explain it is that since you have a 2/3 chance to pick a wrong door originally, and the host will always eliminate one of the wrong doors, the last door now has a higher chance of being right. If the car is in door number 2 and you pick number 1, host opens 3 and you swap, you win. Stick with 1, you lose. You pick number 2, host opens 3, swap, lose. Stick, win. You pick 3, host opens 1, swap, win. Stick, lose. It works with any number of doors greater than 2. You have a 2/3 chance of choosing the wrong door the first time.
Okay, thank you! I’ve heard of this before (honestly it might’ve been on game theory lol) but I don’t think they actually explained how it’s a 2/3 chance if you swap, just that it is.
So... who said that the chance resets after elimination of one of the doors? And shouldn't it be a variant case of Schroedinger's box anyway if you talk about probability determination?
I mean, a lot of people think they get it and don't, too. Like, Kevin is also wrong here. Probability doesn't "lock in", it's a feature of asymmetrical information.
If it helps narinder is actually correct, well, somewhat, it actually doesn’t even matter what door you pick bc the host will always open a door without the prize, so it’s actually already a 1/2 chance
This is probably one of the best cotl videos I've seen in a while. The art style matches really well and every one of your animatics has a killer base to it. Keep up the great work lavender.
The key to understanding it is that the host will always pick a door that is not the prize, and the original probability is maintained at 1/3, so you just took 1/3 of the options and are left with the 2/3
People always explain the Monty Hall problem poorly. It's really simple. There's a 2/3 chance that your initial choice was _not_ the prize. Since one of the remaining doors _is_ the prize, that means that 2/3 of the time, you'll win if you switch.
You explained it simply. But also wrong. If the host is guaranteed to remove an incorrect door, then one of those 3 doors was never an option for you to begin with. It doesn't matter if it's 3 or 300, if the host knowingly eliminates a wrong door every time you choose to keep or switch then it will always boil down to the last 2 doors. Thus, before you even pick a door, the game is 50/50.
@@vigorouslethargy It's not a math problem. It's psychology. There are two "groups" of doors. Winning and losing. Reducing the number of doors to two results in a choice of "Keep your initial group, or take the other group." So if the odds were against your previous choice being the winning option, you should switch groups. The actual doors don't matter, only which "Group" you are most likely to currently be in.
@@KefkeWren But the winning group and the losing group have equal odds as soon as one of the losing doors is removed from play. It's only psychology for people who don't understand very simple probability. If there were 10 doors, you have a 10% chance of guessing it right the first shot. With every losing door removed, the probability of each remaing door being a winner, including the one you chose, increases. After it dwindles to 5 doors, they all have a 20% chance of being correct. Try it yourself. Have someone put a quarter under one of 10 random cups, go through the motions, and at the very end when there's only 2 cups left switch your choice. According to your description, you should have a 90% chance to win by swapping. Repeat enough times and you'll see your actual win rate will be around 50%.
@@vigorouslethargy You didn't choose when they had equal odds. You chose when they had different odds, and now you're being offered the chance to take what you didn't pick then.
@@vigorouslethargy There's not three outcomes, so don't think of it as choosing between three options. Think of it as flipping a coin that's been weighted on one side, then being asked before you've seen the result if you want to turn it over or reveal it as it lies. Even if the weight gets taken off, the coin is already flipped. It doesn't get flipped again.
I’ve watched this a few times now (over the course of a few days) and the subtiles always make me laugh so thanks for adding them (also makes it easier to hear)
(Turn on captions) 3:21 TO MAKE IT BETTER. And to help those who probably got the video suggested because they watched b99 and not because they played cult of the lamb learn the characters names
I know it's not the point of the animation but just as a little math tip; if you're stumped on something to do with probability, just test it 10--20 times and write down the results. It'll take a good 10-15 minutes but it's arguably better than spending a day confusing yourself over nothing, and it doesn't actually tell you WHY the answer is correct, just that it is. You still have to figure out the "why" yourself.
This explanation finally made this problem click for me somehow. The car has a 1/3 chance of being behind your door. The car has a 2/3 chance of not being behind your door. The host opening an empty door doesn't change those probabilities, it just eliminates a wrong choice.
It's safer to assume the door you picked is empty due to the higher number of empty doors. When the host reveals an empty door and with your first pick most likely being empty, it narrows the car to being in the last door.
My favourite part is Aym and Baal casually on the couch with Narinder, as well as the whole ‘captain dad’ thing, very fitting
BONE🗣️🗣️🗣️🗣️🗣️
Also subtitles looking good man!
@@ghoulish_GuyGHOUL SPOTTED
Hell yea!! Ty fam glad the sub works
JAIL. NOW.
in the words of Raman halt "BBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE"
@@ghoulish_Guy i trust everyone with a Ralsei pfp, there always so wholsom-
Narinder opening his face has the same feeling as a parent yelling their kid’s full name. Also I love the subtitling of “whatdidyousay” so much
Lamb has no collar... freak.
@@MxIbatomik red crown is that you
oh… oh, Oh OH *OH* God! NO. Why!?!
@@justareguralcitizen9492*YYYEEESSSS! YYYYYYEEEEESSSSSS!*
He’s also wearing Narinder’s cloak at end too 😅
She doesn't?
3:00 the Crown has seen things😂
It got PTSD form that night!
Alone at the edge of a universe humming a tune
For merely dreaming we were snow
Backstory of the Sins of the Flesh update
This is literally one of the most perfect fandoms to use with this audio
Aym's non-chalant-ness is one of my favorite things ever
"you called it funky cats and their feisty stats." Fits so much better X'D
HIM SCREAMING BONE HAS MADE ME REWIND SO MANY TIMES
this is CRIMINALLY underrated and needs more attention, way too funny
I love how Nari started to explain the problem, to be interrupted by the Lamb and then for the Lamb to say the exact thing Nari just said
His annoyed Face that follows Complements it well too.
Like, it's right WHEN YOU say it, but when I DO it's not??
I Love All And Everything Of This Animation. Holt And Kevin As Naridner And Lamb Fits So Well.
This had me arguing with myself for a while so to try and sum it up simply
As long as there are more wrong doors than right doors, you have a higher chance to pick the wrong one.
Imagine it with 1,000,000 wrong doors. You're much more likely to pick any of the 99,999 wrong ones, so when your options are reduced to just 2 doors you should swap.
There is a _small_ chance you were correct, but there's a _larger_ chance you weren't,
OHhhhhhhhh thank you cause honestly I wanted to know the math
the crux is that your choice isnt retroactively made into a better choice by knowing one of the answers is wrong.
if you had a one in a million chance of getting it right, then you havent been retroactively been made into a genius that picked a door with a 50/50 chance of being correct, its still the same door.
youre effectively changing the question, its not "do you want to switch" youre betting on the fact that your first guess was probably wrong
That’s correct but Another way of looking at it (probably the less straightforward way but eh) is as follows.
Let’s say you got it right the first time, which happens 1/3 of the time. The host opens a door, then tells you you can open the other door. given that you’ve already picked the right door, the other two doors are the same. In this 1/3 of the time, switching will make you lose.
Now alternatively, you got it wrong the first time, which happens 2/3 of the time. Then the host rules out the other wrong door, and lets you switch to the correct door. In this scenario which occurs 2/3 of the time, if you switch, you get it right.
1/3 of the time, you’re in a scenario where switching is wrong, and 2/3 of the time you’re in a scenario where switching is right. It has nothing to do with the current choice between 2 doors, as is commonly and intuitively assumed, but instead to do with the probability you already got it right. As the comment before me said you’re banking on your first guess being wrong
@@Lylybeebee wouldn't it be 50/50? No matter your first choice, one of the wrong ones will always be revealed. Your new choice is like choosing between a completely unrelated 50/50. Of the three doors, let's say 2 is correct. If you pick door 1, door 3 will be opened. Door 3 is completely redundant as you didn't pick it originally and it was revealed before you could switch to it. Same problem for 3, just swap 3 n 1. If you pick 2, either 1 or 3 will be opened. Doesn't matter, you can't (or at least, shouldn't) pick the opened one. The door opened is never your original pick or the right one, so that door will always be redundant (I think, I'd love to be proven wrong, this is making my 'tisms fire)
@@billgatestrappedinthe7year909 but that’s the thing, your original choice does matter. If your original choice was wrong, then it becomes right to switch, if your original choice was right then it becomes wrong to switch. Your original choice being wrong happens 2/3 of the time, and your original choice being right happens 1/3 of the time. This means that in the switch, 2/3 of the time switching gets it right, while 1/3 of the time switching gets it wrong. That is to say, the odds of getting it right by switching is 2/3
The audio is just perfect for Lamb and Nari
Ok, so if anyone is still confused about how it works, the simplest way I can explain it is that since you have a 2/3 chance to pick a wrong door originally, and the host will always eliminate one of the wrong doors, the last door now has a higher chance of being right. If the car is in door number 2 and you pick number 1, host opens 3 and you swap, you win. Stick with 1, you lose. You pick number 2, host opens 3, swap, lose. Stick, win. You pick 3, host opens 1, swap, win. Stick, lose. It works with any number of doors greater than 2. You have a 2/3 chance of choosing the wrong door the first time.
Okay, thank you! I’ve heard of this before (honestly it might’ve been on game theory lol) but I don’t think they actually explained how it’s a 2/3 chance if you swap, just that it is.
Statistics says that, but I've seen deal or no deal and it hardly works our for the person :p
So... who said that the chance resets after elimination of one of the doors?
And shouldn't it be a variant case of Schroedinger's box anyway if you talk about probability determination?
@@TheArklyte you have a 2/3 chance to win if you choose both the two other doors, and if one of the doors is eliminated, the other one is still 2/3
@@ThatOne6uy that doesn't work as the probability value of ALL doors resets and chance value is determined only when YOUR door opens.
This is one of those problems that seems obvious after you figure it out but is really difficult to figure out for some reason.
Literally me: "That's not true! That's impossible!! Oh no, that's right actually..." 😂
I mean, a lot of people think they get it and don't, too.
Like, Kevin is also wrong here. Probability doesn't "lock in", it's a feature of asymmetrical information.
OH MY GOD CULT OF THE LAMB + BROOKLYN NINE NINE THIS IS SO GOOD
You’re the first person I found who’s said the name. Thanks
I love the Lamb’s ponytail, it adds so much personnality
So the trick to understanding the Monty Hall Problem is to forgo logic and look at the numbers, got it.
If it helps narinder is actually correct, well, somewhat, it actually doesn’t even matter what door you pick bc the host will always open a door without the prize, so it’s actually already a 1/2 chance
Commenting because the detail of scars in Narinder’s wrists from the chains is so good!!! It shows how much you considers the sillies I love it
I am in LOVE with the art style and attention to detail! Lamb having the neck scar at 3:01 and wearing Nari’s cloak! LOVE IT
The idea of having lamb cover a scar with their collar is genius
This amazing and something I didn't even realize I needed, thank you. God The fact that his face came apart when Aym suggested to bone killed me
That's why we can't make an egg with Narinder.
I see this as canon. But all jokes aside, this was really fitting, and it's a fantastic animatic, much respect!
I never thought of Narinder as Captain Holt but now I need more of it
This is probably one of the best cotl videos I've seen in a while. The art style matches really well and every one of your animatics has a killer base to it. Keep up the great work lavender.
You know narinder's mad when even kallamar heard him x'D
(Either that or I'm being stupid, sorry if I am T_T)
The key to understanding it is that the host will always pick a door that is not the prize, and the original probability is maintained at 1/3, so you just took 1/3 of the options and are left with the 2/3
WHY DOES THIS AUDIO WORK SO WELL
BEAUTIFUL ANIMATIC, I LAUGHED WAY TOO LOUD FOR HOW LATE IT WAS BUT THANK YOU
Two things.
1) OHMYGODTHATARTISSOADROABLEOMGOMGOMG
2) Fuckin' LOVE Brooklyn 9-9.
the second I saw the title I knew it was going to be the Brooklyn 99 audio and i love that
Dang- I love your art style! And Baal and Aym are so cute!
Loving this so much, I'm watching this a second time now
People always explain the Monty Hall problem poorly. It's really simple. There's a 2/3 chance that your initial choice was _not_ the prize. Since one of the remaining doors _is_ the prize, that means that 2/3 of the time, you'll win if you switch.
You explained it simply. But also wrong.
If the host is guaranteed to remove an incorrect door, then one of those 3 doors was never an option for you to begin with. It doesn't matter if it's 3 or 300, if the host knowingly eliminates a wrong door every time you choose to keep or switch then it will always boil down to the last 2 doors. Thus, before you even pick a door, the game is 50/50.
@@vigorouslethargy It's not a math problem. It's psychology. There are two "groups" of doors. Winning and losing. Reducing the number of doors to two results in a choice of "Keep your initial group, or take the other group." So if the odds were against your previous choice being the winning option, you should switch groups. The actual doors don't matter, only which "Group" you are most likely to currently be in.
@@KefkeWren
But the winning group and the losing group have equal odds as soon as one of the losing doors is removed from play. It's only psychology for people who don't understand very simple probability. If there were 10 doors, you have a 10% chance of guessing it right the first shot. With every losing door removed, the probability of each remaing door being a winner, including the one you chose, increases. After it dwindles to 5 doors, they all have a 20% chance of being correct.
Try it yourself. Have someone put a quarter under one of 10 random cups, go through the motions, and at the very end when there's only 2 cups left switch your choice. According to your description, you should have a 90% chance to win by swapping. Repeat enough times and you'll see your actual win rate will be around 50%.
@@vigorouslethargy You didn't choose when they had equal odds. You chose when they had different odds, and now you're being offered the chance to take what you didn't pick then.
@@vigorouslethargy There's not three outcomes, so don't think of it as choosing between three options. Think of it as flipping a coin that's been weighted on one side, then being asked before you've seen the result if you want to turn it over or reveal it as it lies. Even if the weight gets taken off, the coin is already flipped. It doesn't get flipped again.
iunno why you decided to subtitle it but I'm very glad you did because it's nice :3
I assume Leshy is also picking at random every time he opens a door
Oh my Lamb this was beautiful 🤣
Thanks for that 😊
3:00 oh, that was sneaky! So Nari really spent the night...he landed the Lamb his clothes XD
You may ask yourself why you subtitled this but I'm glad you did.
Omg the couch scene is so cuuute!!!🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😊😊😊😊🥹🥹🥹🥹😍😍😍🥰🥰🥰😚😚😚😋😋😛😛😝😝😜😜🤪🤪
I understand the Math Problem. Saw a short about it a few days ago
The audio fits perfectly!😂
I love this. Thank you for making this.
This is so underrated what the fuck.
This deserves all the views, likes and comments.
I love how most people have just decided that Lamb and Narinder just need to bone and get over their bickering.
Oh my gosh I love this so much, this is going to become one of those youtube videos I love so much that I watch it like every couple months 😭❤
I do want to thank you for the subtitles, tho, it makes it funnier n.n
This is an absolute delight
Ok so at first I didn’t know what the giveaway was until I just went back and compared the outfits
This perfect funny video made my day.Thank you🎉
Leshy as the host 😂😂😂😂😂
i no wonder sounds so familiar this conversation come from Brocklin NINE NINE , still very fun ^^
The third eye is a little freaky 3:06
I’ve watched this a few times now (over the course of a few days) and the subtiles always make me laugh so thanks for adding them (also makes it easier to hear)
(Turn on captions)
3:21 TO MAKE IT BETTER. And to help those who probably got the video suggested because they watched b99 and not because they played cult of the lamb learn the characters names
BSKDJFNSDKJFN this fits them so well LMAOO
THIS IS PERFECT LMAO incredible work
I've seen your art on Reddit, a good chunk of it is saved, I LOVE WHAT YOU MAKE
Good laugh in the morning, thanks.
My favorite game AND my favorite show? You have my respect lady
Damm this is great, just putting this here to try and get the algorithm to push it to others
Praise the lamb
THE CROWN loosing its sanity is everything
i love that show so much tho
Iv probably watched this like 7 times now
I love and hate that this fits perfectly
I love this, the perfect crossover of my two favorite things and a cute art style ❤
The solution.
Sad but this fits so well
Excellent subtitiles, I appreciate the extra effort
I love the designs of all the characters i can't wait to see the goat
I love animations like theses, there always so fun to watch 😭
Nice. I'm glad they don't have a bone to pick anymore.
I LOVE THE SUBTITLES 😂♥️🖤♥️🖤🖤♥️♥️🖤♥️🖤♥️🖤♥️🖤♥️🖤♥️🖤♥️🖤♥️🖤AND AYM AND BAL
Aym just became my favorite for this-
Thank you for subtitling this
YES i was hoping this would be B99
Why does Kevin and Holt's voice work so well for Lamb and Narinder? Idk but I love it so much.
no words for how gorgeous this is lmao
I fucking love the character design, BEAutiful work
I know it's not the point of the animation but just as a little math tip; if you're stumped on something to do with probability, just test it 10--20 times and write down the results. It'll take a good 10-15 minutes but it's arguably better than spending a day confusing yourself over nothing, and it doesn't actually tell you WHY the answer is correct, just that it is. You still have to figure out the "why" yourself.
The subtitles are excellent and much appreciated!!!
This explanation finally made this problem click for me somehow.
The car has a 1/3 chance of being behind your door.
The car has a 2/3 chance of not being behind your door.
The host opening an empty door doesn't change those probabilities, it just eliminates a wrong choice.
i am * laughing * i am * wheezing * this is ART-
I love that you gave credits 🥰
And the animatic fits perfectly with these characters xD
The subtitles are super good for those who can't actually hear the audio or have auditory issues, so thank you for putting those
I love the scar around Lamb's neck there
It becomes easier to understand if you explain like: "Would you rather choose from three possibilities, or two?"
My new favorite animation on UA-cam
I love Brooklyn 99
Why did no one tell me it started with the Monty Hall problem?! Thats 200% more funnier! I love your animation, you have a really nice art style :D
3:00 "we do not speak of this" sir you are already married its a bit late for that
Rip Andre Braugher, i fucking loved Raymond Holt.
Awesome animation, you’ve earned a like, and another sub
Omg this is so awesome.
This is GREAT
I
LOVE
THIS
TO LEVELS I DONT EVEN UNDERSTAND WHY I LOVE IT SO MUCH
I just realized that instead of having rings on their fingers they have matching earrings on their right ears.
Hope to see more of these, animatics like this have really sold me on the 'Lamb x Nariander' ship and I want *more*. XP
The part that got me to understand the math problem was that I didn't realize that the host would never open the door with the prize behind it
It's safer to assume the door you picked is empty due to the higher number of empty doors. When the host reveals an empty door and with your first pick most likely being empty, it narrows the car to being in the last door.