As an elder millennial, one of the few advantages is having lived through the Great Recession. My advice. Reduce unnecessary expenses, increase your savings by investing in financial markets and do not sell. One thing I know for sure is that diversifying your income can help insulate you from much of the craziness going on in the world.
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
In my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a coach for almost 2 year now, I started out with less than $120K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
well the stock market is down 20% since last year. Keeping my money in bank could be no good but investing is riskier I wish to find better value deals as asset prices keep decreasing but lack the skillset mind if I look up your advisor? I admit this is the only way for amateurs like myself
It would be very innovative suggestion to look out for Financial Advisors like Natalie Lynn Fisk who can help shape up your portfolio. Trying times are ahead, and good personal financial management will be very important to weather the storm.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market.
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
Some thought provoking content. An enjoyable video. But there was a video about a year ago on this channel predicting an apocalyptic housing crash in 2022....that never happened. Even a broken clock is right twice a day?
They are all full of shit. It is all just uniformed click bait. One thing they never mention is the reason unemployment is at record lows. Baby Boomer are retiring in massive numbers many jobs will need to be filled unemployment will stay low combined with millions of people getting historic low mortgage rates there will be no recession
Hey EPB can we get some of your references in the description? You made mention to the early cyclical job losses and it would be super useful to be able to just click and get that data. :)
@@bobriquardo5317 inflation has increased greater than wages are increasing, results in less purchasing power, results in less buying, results in recession.
@@thejagermeizter Considering the historically high amount of consumer debt, low savings rate, and high inflation, I expect the coming recession to be worse than it was 15 years ago.
"This time feels different" I dont think any previous recession has had such a tight labor market. Even with UE this low the labor participation rate wasn't this low. So there is a smaller labor pool WRT the demand of goods and services.
They are all full of shit. It is all just uniformed click bait. One thing they never mention is the reason unemployment is at record lows. Baby Boomer are retiring in massive numbers many jobs will need to be filled unemployment will stay low combined with millions of people getting historic low mortgage rates there will be no recession.
Love the great content and research as always. With low inventory in the housing market, is it possible to have a recession without a housing crash? Have there been recessions in the past where housing prices haven’t dipped?
@@jameskguen maybe. I mean when was the last time in the history of the markets that at every problem central banks just fired up the money printer, and tried to plug the hole with endless money? I believe that is a first
But what about the huge investments the current administration is making in the infrastructure and other manufacturing industries. I know its not building houses but roads, bridges, power plants, fiber optic etc its still a construction industry.
Already commented this on last video but as a structural eng we are already seeing layoffs in Seattle (from junior to senior levels). I think this recession will be especially bad for construction due to WFH and owners viewing office space as a risky investment going forwards. Huge sector of work just gone overnight.
Good analysis. Agreed with conclusions. But would you be able to analyze sectors? It seems there are two opposite trends. Housing and related manufacturing are on decline. According to them a recession should be happening right now, but GDP is still growing. One of the possible candidates, which moves economics up, is weapons manufacturing. The weapons export is up 49% last year, there are multiple cases of investment in a new production. Lockheed Martin complains about a lack of supplies. Are there any other drivers of growth? Could they damper a majority of the upcoming recession? What impact on economics has military spending?
@@rockychang7595 sure, an increase in government spending has effect on GDP. But this fact on its own doesn't explain everything. 2020 and 2021 spendings were bigger than 2022. if it was the only driver of growth, the recession was supposed to happen last year, but GDP grew up despite the decrease in spending. It means the picture is more complicated. If you are talking only about the increase in spending since March 2022 , that it is responsible for the recession absence/delay. You are talking about similar things I mentioned, since a big chunk of the spending increase is military related. And it would be interesting to see if any other spendings have a potential of growth, like a weapon manufacturing. Second moment, if the government spending and an increase in weapon export can completely compensate for a slow down of other sectors, then the risk of recession this year is very low.
Your videos are top class but sometimes go over my head. You should probably try to focus more on explaining stuff and bring conclusions rather than just give data and leave it to us to figure out. I want to know what all this data means in our current situation
Redfin YOY, New Fl housing is especially worrisome....Watched 2 big hedge fund gurus talk about the coming pain in commercial RE. I do believe we are in it, it's just that water isn't warm to the touch just yet.
Could this be changing? If the laid off tech workers fail to find jobs then maybe there will be a shift where services layoffs are better predictors of recessions than they have been in the past. But those layoffs don't show up in unemployment numbers if those workers with multi-month severance packages don't file for unemployment.
Market may rally quite a bit higher along with interest rates. I would watch 2 things mostly. Unemployment at such a low rate can only go one way from here. It could go a little lower first. The most important is fed interest rates. The stock market has dropped every time the fed cuts rates. They are having to cut because of economic problems. Unless this time is the lone outlier. I'll put my bet on history. Good luck everyone.
Supposedly AI could change this dynamic i.e. cognitive jobs (many services) can be replaced easier than physical ones (like manufacturing). We shall see.
Wow, I literally just subscribed to your channel with notifications on 10 minutes ago and this shows up. What a timing. Thanks for all of these videos from your research man, it's so helpful!
As an elder millennial, one of the few advantages is having lived through the Great Recession. My advice. Reduce unnecessary expenses, increase your savings by investing in financial markets and do not sell. One thing I know for sure is that diversifying your income can help insulate you from much of the craziness going on in the world.
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
In my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a coach for almost 2 year now, I started out with less than $120K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
well the stock market is down 20% since last year. Keeping my money in bank could be no good but investing is riskier I wish to find better value deals as asset prices keep decreasing but lack the skillset mind if I look up your advisor? I admit this is the only way for amateurs like myself
It would be very innovative suggestion to look out for Financial Advisors like Natalie Lynn Fisk who can help shape up your portfolio. Trying times are ahead, and good personal financial management will be very important to weather the storm.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market.
Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine. Bloomberg and other finance media have been recording cases of folks gaining over 250k just in a matter of weeks/couple months, so I think there are alot of wealth transfer in this downtime if you know where to look.
Nothing beats an EPB video at 10am in the morning.
as a leading indicator of a recession?
I can think of one thing lol.
6:35 PM Germany 🇩🇪
10am in the evening
Hands down one of the best no BS channels on YT and totally under subscribed
Thanks, mate. I am now subscribed due to your comment.
"No Bs." "Under subscribed" Count me in ;)
To the guy making this, great video!
Some thought provoking content. An enjoyable video. But there was a video about a year ago on this channel predicting an apocalyptic housing crash in 2022....that never happened. Even a broken clock is right twice a day?
They are all full of shit. It is all just uniformed click bait. One thing they never mention is the reason unemployment is at record lows. Baby Boomer are retiring in massive numbers many jobs will need to be filled unemployment will stay low combined with millions of people getting historic low mortgage rates there will be no recession
Hey EPB can we get some of your references in the description? You made mention to the early cyclical job losses and it would be super useful to be able to just click and get that data. :)
I still agree with you, but these figures are easily available from the census beareu and St Louis FRED sites.
Most Americans are losing purchasing power since last June. I call that a recession.
That's just inflation.
@@bobriquardo5317 inflation has increased greater than wages are increasing, results in less purchasing power, results in less buying, results in recession.
@@thejagermeizter that’s true when liquidity contracts. Otherwise, people just borrow the difference.
@@toinengwyn3935 if people can't pay back the difference then doesn't default on loans lead to even greater recession? I.e. 2008
@@thejagermeizter Considering the historically high amount of consumer debt, low savings rate, and high inflation, I expect the coming recession to be worse than it was 15 years ago.
isn't construction and builders claiming higher profits? what is going on with their accounting
"This time feels different" I dont think any previous recession has had such a tight labor market. Even with UE this low the labor participation rate wasn't this low. So there is a smaller labor pool WRT the demand of goods and services.
may i ask, where do i get this construction and manufacture job data? I can't find it in market calendar data site. Thanks
Learning so much from your content. Keep it up.
🧐🧐USA: To make 1 $ GDP they need 2$ Debt. This is just INSANE!
In my layman's opinion; thought there is no historical data, I believe aggressive AI driven deflation should be considered.
okay seriously, when does the recession come. its been over a year listening to all these warnings from every media outlet and youtubers.
Look at the construction job numbers as they're reported. He said it was currently 0.5% if I recall correctly? So we could be close
They are all full of shit. It is all just uniformed click bait. One thing they never mention is the reason unemployment is at record lows. Baby Boomer are retiring in massive numbers many jobs will need to be filled unemployment will stay low combined with millions of people getting historic low mortgage rates there will be no recession.
Love the great content and research as always. With low inventory in the housing market, is it possible to have a recession without a housing crash? Have there been recessions in the past where housing prices haven’t dipped?
Would love and answer to this ^^
we have already had a housing dip since Aug 22, prices have gone down from that peak.
People sell their homes when they lose their jobs
There will be more inventory in time
Unemployment leads to foreclosures.
But the current -0.05% change is a near zero change, that's a 1/20th loss.
Only indicator required is the actual economy....which is strong.....so everything else should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Money printer will solve the problem again. There won't be another classic "recession", just an accelerating inflationary spiral.
in other words "this time it's different"
@@jameskguen maybe. I mean when was the last time in the history of the markets that at every problem central banks just fired up the money printer, and tried to plug the hole with endless money? I believe that is a first
Great video, thank you for making these. Keep up the good work.
Best Finance UA-camr … we just want the data and charts
But what about the huge investments the current administration is making in the infrastructure and other manufacturing industries. I know its not building houses but roads, bridges, power plants, fiber optic etc its still a construction industry.
Already commented this on last video but as a structural eng we are already seeing layoffs in Seattle (from junior to senior levels). I think this recession will be especially bad for construction due to WFH and owners viewing office space as a risky investment going forwards. Huge sector of work just gone overnight.
Good analysis. Agreed with conclusions. But would you be able to analyze sectors? It seems there are two opposite trends. Housing and related manufacturing are on decline. According to them a recession should be happening right now, but GDP is still growing.
One of the possible candidates, which moves economics up, is weapons manufacturing. The weapons export is up 49% last year, there are multiple cases of investment in a new production. Lockheed Martin complains about a lack of supplies.
Are there any other drivers of growth? Could they damper a majority of the upcoming recession? What impact on economics has military spending?
Correct government spending is keeping gdp up when that slows down we’ll see the effects occur
@@rockychang7595 sure, an increase in government spending has effect on GDP. But this fact on its own doesn't explain everything.
2020 and 2021 spendings were bigger than 2022. if it was the only driver of growth, the recession was supposed to happen last year, but GDP grew up despite the decrease in spending. It means the picture is more complicated.
If you are talking only about the increase in spending since March 2022 , that it is responsible for the recession absence/delay. You are talking about similar things I mentioned, since a big chunk of the spending increase is military related. And it would be interesting to see if any other spendings have a potential of growth, like a weapon manufacturing.
Second moment, if the government spending and an increase in weapon export can completely compensate for a slow down of other sectors, then the risk of recession this year is very low.
Construction is a joke of a career
I have been in construction the last 10 years
amplify a bit on your answer :) !
Your videos are top class but sometimes go over my head. You should probably try to focus more on explaining stuff and bring conclusions rather than just give data and leave it to us to figure out. I want to know what all this data means in our current situation
that there will be a recession
Where do you get this chart?
And here I was hoping things would bounce back soon.
I think it's cute you are calling it a recession.
amazing breakdown! thank you very much for this.
how many times did you say 'conshtruction' in this video?
awesome insights. Thank you!
Trust me, I'm from the county that feels recession first, WE ARE IN A RECESSION!!!! Save your money and hopefully your homes!!
Wish i was educated enough to understand this
just watched the whole vid and understood maybe 13% xD
the mind is a sponge all the education u need is a few clicks away easier said than done tho
Redfin YOY, New Fl housing is especially worrisome....Watched 2 big hedge fund gurus talk about the coming pain in commercial RE. I do believe we are in it, it's just that water isn't warm to the touch just yet.
If you think that's bad, The NYSE is about to be 10, 000 degrees
Fahrenheit
Very interesting, well presented 👌
Could this be changing? If the laid off tech workers fail to find jobs then maybe there will be a shift where services layoffs are better predictors of recessions than they have been in the past. But those layoffs don't show up in unemployment numbers if those workers with multi-month severance packages don't file for unemployment.
Market may rally quite a bit higher along with interest rates. I would watch 2 things mostly. Unemployment at such a low rate can only go one way from here. It could go a little lower first. The most important is fed interest rates. The stock market has dropped every time the fed cuts rates. They are having to cut because of economic problems. Unless this time is the lone outlier. I'll put my bet on history. Good luck everyone.
Eric do you generally approve of the HOPE cyclical framework or is it too simplified?
We’re going to the moon
let the system crash
28k views. I see the hard work is paying off. Congrats
So was this a precursor to something, I don't think I saw any data from our current situation?
Supposedly AI could change this dynamic i.e. cognitive jobs (many services) can be replaced easier than physical ones (like manufacturing). We shall see.
The infrastructure for that is not fully setup yet if we’re talking automation like japan. It’ll take some time.
Very informative, eric ❤
I like this short form videos, I would like analysts I talk to at my job to be this straight forward as well.
Aren’t you the same guy who said inflation was transitory?
does he say construction in next video?
Brilliant insights. Amazing clarity of delivery!
Have a feeling recession already priced into stock market
Does he ever share the data behind the graphs
Wow, I literally just subscribed to your channel with notifications on 10 minutes ago and this shows up. What a timing.
Thanks for all of these videos from your research man, it's so helpful!
Welcome!
This channel always has fantastic info.
Liking and commenting for the UA-cam algo to spread your videos more. Great, concise info.
Awesome, thank you.
Good follow-on to your previous video!
EPB, where do you source your data from with the service/cyclical job loss comparisons? Thanks.
We make all the charts that we present in the videos. This jobs data comes from the BLS.
@@EPBResearch doesn't the BLS still show job gains the last few months?
Excellent.
This is awesome content
I wonder when we're going to see the impact of those 50 million job losses coming from people being replaced by AI.
Easy everyone will own one Ai and they will for us while we vacation technically we don’t need jobs , jobs are meant to make people slaves
This guy is the dude!
Sacramento California construction is slowing down very fast it feels. There's projects going, but not as much as there was by a long shot.
I get all giddy like a school girl when these videos drops!
Thank you!