Visualizing The United States Debt Crisis
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- Опубліковано 27 лип 2024
- Debt can collect in different areas of an economy. This video will analyze what economic sectors have the highest debt levels and how they compare to other debt crises in the past.
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You have a gift when it comes to explaining things in an easy to understand manner... and you never assume someone knows the basics about a given topic, you explain the fundamentals masterfully.
Thanks, Kyle! Glad you are finding the videos helpful!
100%
One thing to remember: Covid was the largest wealth transfer in history from the lower classes to the upper. Consider the implications on consumer debt to GDP discussed in the video; consumers have less, therefore they are a lower share of debt to GDP by necessity. This does not mean that people are better off right now than in 2008, it means that they have less in general.
And just look at the increase in value of property like stocks and real estate, both of which the upper class owns at greater rates than lower class.
@@alexjones7845 very easily explained. Quantitative easing left the banks flush with cash that they need to lend. They offered this money at very low rates. They pretty much beefed their wealthy liners to borrow money at low rates, and there are two primary places to invest it. Stock market, and real estate.
Now that rates are climbing, watch stocks and real estate get sold to get rid of those loans. But so many people were buying, that asset prices were inflated.
If you payed attention prior to the crisis and had a skill and whatnot you did ok. If you didn’t (artisan bacon masher) you probably suffered and fell behind.
Life isn’t fair and it’s competitive. Nothing about that will ever change and especially not during a crisis.
What are you talking about? Almost all the money given out during Covid was printed money. 7 trillion dollars that was given out during the 4 years of Trump and 1 year of the Biden administration was printed. Poor people don't have 7 trillion dollars. Lol
If the money was taken from the poor and not printed then we wouldn't have the massive inflation problem that we are having now. The covid money was printed/borrowed not taken via taxes. You should take some economics classes and shut you mouth. Lol
One of your best videos. Visuals were on point. Very easy to follow. Learned a lot in 10 mins. Thanks!
Thanks! Getting better with reps.
These short vids are great: succinct, clearly spoken, and so well illustrated! I'd like to see more detail on business debt and student loan debt.
I second this !
Really good content! Production quality almost as good as what you'd expect from larger media outlets like FT, WSJ, etc. Also very timely & relevant information, your videos seem to be a few weeks AHEAD of the news cycle - that's super important for investors and an impressive feat. (For example, big announcement today on student loan forgiveness in US, which was a big focus of the research you show here, uploaded about 2 weeks ago) I'm a new fan and new subscriber - big thanks to EPB Macro and all the 13k subs who found you first. With content like this you'll be hitting 100k in no time!
One of the best channels around.
"There is no free lunch". This is THE most important sentence in economics 101 that every high schooler should know. Remember that when those folks in Europe saying "college is free" or "healthcare is free". It is not. It's just paid for differently. That said, I am absolutely astonished to see spending habits of people even in this dire economic times
Agreed. There is nothing free in this world. You either pay for it, or someone else will need to pay for it.
Honestly I could not have hoped to get this quality of information for free on youtube. There is some real insight into your analysis and is not just reiteration of major economic media. Particularly fascinating have been the videos on RE just because of my interests at present but all others have been very entertaining and valuable. I hope it is feasible for you to continue to produce this type of content. Maybe with time you can get a patreon started, I am sure many such as myself value this type of content and would support if further. All the best!
Agreed!
Great video Eric! High signal content 😎
What a compliment from the best of the best!
Love this format, great analysis, succinct, and to the point!
I have a degree in Finance with a focus on Equity Valuations. I really enjoyed watching these and wish we had these when I was in college.
Agreed. You do a nice job.
Love the data first approach and simple explanations. No goofy reaction thumbnails or click bait titles... your videos are like anti-YT formula and I thank you!
A deep dive into the business sector debt and potential impacts would be awesome. This content being put out has been great by the way
Single handedly the best explanation video across UA-cam. It's been a mission to find information like this. Thank you. Great job. Subscribing.
This video is incredible. Debt can be pretty complicated with all its different facets, but you explained it beautifully. The video was also short and to the point. I learned a lot, thank you so much!
Congrats on this video and thanks for carrying out all the research required to put this together!
I can't get enough of your videos! They are awesome, very well explained!
This is some great information, my dude. I'm glad I found you through your deep dive on Nick. Keep it up.
This is probably the most value-packed macro economics channel on the tube. Well done, again. I'd like to see more in-depth analysis on corporate debt pls.
These visualisations are great. Kudos for doing such a good job and keeping it jargon free. Been watching a lot of finance videos lately and this is one of the best. I'm sure you'll touch on this in other videos as you explore this subject (you even hinted it somewhere) but government debt tends to be inflationary where as private debt is deflationary as it implodes. Clearly, there are many other signals also alluding to inflation (certainly in places like EU) such as lack of commodity infrastructure capex/investment. Sadly, people are looking to governments for solutions, blind to the fact they are the case of the problem to start with.
Your videos are amazing. Just discovered this channel and already see a binge watch ahead.
very clear explanation with great use of visuals. thanks much! looking forward to more videos just like this. I'd love to see a deeper dive into how we rack up federal debt and its impact on everyday people
Holy crap the quality! Great breakdown of where the debt is, extremely professional. Will definitely share, hope you break through the algorithm soon!
Thanks, B!! We'll break through soon enough. I appreciate the share!
Excellent videos! I really love your no fluff, easy to digest yet thorough presentations focusing on the big picture. Learned a lot and you piqued my interested in learning more!👍👍
Man, brilliant video. Not only the content is top class (great analysis), you are a natural at explaining complex topics, plus, you have a fantastic voice as a narrator. 5 stars all around.
Thank you so much! Comments like this are super impactful to me.
Thanks for the video! One suggestion - please don't start the y-axis at a number other than zero - it gives the false impression with bar charts and line charts that changes are bigger/smaller than they are. It was particularly egregious when zooming in on the time periods for debt with banks.
I strongly second this comment. Incredible video.
Very good video!
Please share academic research showing link between debt and growth.
Thank you for these simple to understand but deep analysis.
Fantastic. Thanks Eric!
Thanks, Brandon!
Thanks for the video. Very informative and easily explained. Nice to see a video that’s not completely biased on UA-cam related to current financial situations.
Your videos are well done and informative. I imagine that it takes a long time to produce these but would appreciate deeper dive videos on each of the problem areas. Thank you!
one of the most underrated content and channel.. Subbed!
Excellent breakdown.
Glad you liked it!
as usual, Excellent!
Great vidoe explaination. I enjoy your videos. Your graphs and explanations are great. Thanks
Excellent. Answered so many questions.
Amazing job with the videos 👏🏼😃.
My vote goes for a video focused on the auto sector 🙋🏻♂️🚘.
Thank you 🙏🏼
Love your analysis and breakdown!
That was the most valuable 10 minutes of my day. Thank you!
Absolutely phenomenal presentations. Well Done!
Great video! Nicely explained how the growing debt load is driving the economic structure in exactly the direction the top 3% is aiming for.
Great video. Thank you!
I appreciate your videos. You make concise easy to understand content that is accessible to everyone. I shared this video on my Facebook page. I'm a huge proponent of getting people away from making decisions based on political alignments which are typically based on mostly emotion, pushing them to look more at specific decisions the government has made, a person has made etc. Making our decisions based on facts, economical impact etc. I'm confident most won't take an interest but if I get one person to think for themselves I will call the post mission success lol.
Thank you for providing content that I'm comfortable sharing on my page. 😁
Emotion clouds judgement!
Thanks for the share.
It’s hard not to get emotional about oil companies destroying the climate for farmland. I like to eat, I get emotional when I’m starving lol.
Excellent explination. Thank you.
Truly great information based videos. Keep it up 🙌
Thank you for very understandable videos :). Would like to hear/learn more about debt in Europe
This video is 🔥 great content. Well delivered!
Love to learn more about the corporate debt bubble. Great video
🔥🔥🔥 great video. Very well put together!
Your content and insights are awesome
Thanks, Shilpa!
Great video! This video has created curiosity about business debt and more specifically the private sector within me. With the growth of PE (Private Equity) over the past 15 years, and their increased appetite for higher levels of debt ratios (compared to non-PE private owned businesses) in a season of cheap debt, a couple of questions have run into my head. First, if we head into a recession with higher interest rates, which PE firms are going to fail? Secondly, which banks have a high percentage of PE loans on their balance sheet? Again, great job on your videos, I look forward to what's next. Thx, Andrew
This was great. Thank you so much!
Excellent video, thanks a lot
Your videos should be mandatory for people to watch. Ty for the effort
Great stuff Eric! Keep up the work and you'll soon see booming success on youtube
Thanks for the support!
Love your MECE approach to this
Hi Eric, really great breakdown of the different pools of debt floating around in the system.
It really gave me a lot of food for thought, especially on identifying the area where there is to much kindling floating around waiting to combust.
Could this be in the area of Auto debt ?
I can imagine that defaults in that domain could have cascading effects on corporate debt..
You have my upvote for a deep dive into the auto debt situation .
Thanks again for the really great work you're publishing.
I enjoy your presentations. They are very well researched. I had to keep an eye on the y-axis starting points for your plots though though because it could be a bit misleading when not starting from 0.
Great channel, good data. Thanks!
Wow, so beautifully explained
Hi Eric,,
Fantastic presentation. Very digestable for the layman. Present company included.
Questions of how business sector debt will unfold and affect the broader economy and equities markets are likely front and centre for your audience.
Also, the presentation also touches on the differences in the debt picture evolving in Europe. A summary, with the end question of how contagion may affect the U.S. system, would also be of great interest.
Thanks for your time and work.
Dr. Chris Pazaratz
GREAT VIDEO! Really appreciate the breakdown of the different sectors and the associated debt. CAN YOU PLEASE DO A DEEP DIVE ON THE STUDENT LOAN DEBT CRISIS and its impacts crushing millennials and the long term implications that signals for long term economic growth???? As a 35 yr old millennial this BY FAR is the most devastating and impacting factor for me, coupled with the fact that graduating from undergrad in 2008 in the midst of the financial crisis really set my whole generation back. It has caused me to delay getting married (i'm just now getting married this year in October). It has caused me delaying to buy a house and that's with me now making an almost $150k annual salary. And i know alot of people have it way way worse than i do. It truly is a generational crisis.
Thanks for the great video!
Great info, I was engaged through the whole thing, but this felt to short and I was left confused, not from misunderstanding the information, but my brain didn't know what to do with the information when the video ended, nothing brought the information together so I would know how to apply this info into long term memory problem solving. It's still a top ace video and in conclusion, my critic is that... I wanted more! Lol
Amazing work!
Thank you for real valuable material. Its your choice, the most danger debt.
Without an ability to repay, debt is toxic.
Would like to see a breakdown of business debt. Have been very bearish on junk bonds
Great Great episode. Thanks!
Very education vid and I like your data visualization very much. I am interested in corporate debt wiping out equity topic. look forward to next vid.
Love this channel!
Excellent job and thank you.
Amazing vid.
Bravo to the video editor.
And yes please do a deep dive.
Thanks, D G!
Great breakdown!
I think the explanation of the government debt compared to private debt is really important. If you rack up government debt, it will keep your economy stable, but it will limit your room for growth. This can of course be mitigated if government debt is accrued in order to expand productive capacity, as that will create room for growth and offset the negative growth caused by the government debt.
On the other hand, if you increase private debt it can lead to amazing growth in your economy, but you risk a massive decline when things get rocky.
It’s not that one is better than the other, it’s that each has its own pros and cons. But if you’re increasing both at the same time, you’re going to have some problems to deal with.
Great work. I think a breakdown in corporate sector debt would be very illuminating. On another note I watched your interview with AIM Research and thought that was great. Question: as we progress through the cycle what sectors do you think are on the chopping block next in the sequence? Where would you look to short as this bear bounce comes to an end? Keep up the great work! You're adding a great perspective in the market and not only am I learning a lot from your content but I'm also cheering you on as you build EPB Research.
Thanks for a great analysis. Please share the other videos about the effect of each sector. Thanks
Thank you for the video! I would love to hear more about how auto debt will impact the economy.
Eric.. Your work is very impressive. You have a lot of talent a real gift as a teacher.........and kudos to you for sharing it. You will be rewarded.
Thanks, Pat! Comments like this are so impactful to me and really encourage me to produce more content like this, knowing it's having an impact. Thank you.
One of the best videos I’ve seen
excellent video. Very well presented and explained 👏. Everyone shd watch. Learn
Fantastic video. I subscribed.
this is actually amazing
Subscribed, interesting presentations you have
Fantastic video! Its important that people understand this without having to enroll in an economics course. Can you do a video on the credit super-cycle? The commodity super-cycle?
Laser beam of information, thanks so much
You got it! More coming.
Great explanation!
Love it! Would be interested in a look at Auto loans, also a look at Australia’s economy for your viewers down under!
One of the best videos on the topic of understanding debt as one of the two primary legs of the long term secular cycle, the other being the demographics.
Would love a similar video on demographics if possible!
Great video, thanks. Can you break down business sector debt, and in particular focusing on how that applies to risk management for retail investors?
Seconded!
Nice video. Very informative and well put together. Would love to see something similar for the UK, France and Germany.
Such good info.
Excellent podcast and crystal clear in its logical sequences!! I may point out that the Rogoff study on global economies pointed out that when Federal debt to GDP gets above 90%, the economy begins to experience lower levels of productivity, diminishing returns on government and private investments and lower increases in economic growth !! Hence stagnant standards of living and lower increases in wages to keep up with higher inflation are the end result. America's reserve currency status could one day be challenged by alternative systems of payments if this over leveraged system keeps printing more and more currency to finance its fiscal deficits.!!
Great content!
Great video. The level of debt to GDP is not as good of a proxy as the debt service coverage ratio imo. Reason being that debt at 15% is much harder to service(make the minimum payment) then the same amount of debt at 2%. Since the federal funds rate hit 0% most of the current debt is held at a historically low level, so it's its easier to manage then the historical average debt.
Another awesome video, great work! I'd love to know if each of those ratios could instead be normalized for debt servicing levels (ie. prevailing interest rates), rather than total debt vs. GDP? Is one of the overloaded sectors more sensitive to rate rises or inflation than another?
Great video Thanks
Would love a deeper dive into the 300% and 85% markers. What are the variables in calculating those numbers? It seems arbitrary for someone that hasn't read the literature. Awesome videos as always
For sure! I can only pack so much into one video, and I didn't want to go off on a tangent. A video for those thresholds is necessary.
@@EPBResearch Will there be a similar video to the situation in Europe from you one day, as you already mentioned European financial debt in your video. If there is no video on debt in Europe one day, can you please maybe tell me if the thresholds are the same for Europe? Then I could do my own research and compare it.
@@TheArmin7471 Here’s an idea, why don’t you get someone in Europe to research this for you? Ever since colonial days, Europeans want everything done for them l..from World War II to countering the Soviets. Do something for yourselves for a change.
@@TheArmin7471 PS by colonial days I’m talking about when England Spain Portugal France Holland etc were raping the rest of the world.
I would love a similar video on the Canadian economy/debt. Thanks
Beautiful presentation
An epic masterpiece!
Wow, this is great presentation