[Monday] Idalia Strengthening; Major Impacts Expected in Florida and Southeast US Beginning Tuesday
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- Опубліковано 4 лип 2024
- 00:00 Tropical Storm Idalia
12:55 Hurricane Franklin
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Please note that these posts do NOT necessarily reflect the official forecasts of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and should not be interpreted as such. While tropical storms exist in the Atlantic, official NHC information is available at www.hurricanes.gov. Please refer to the NHC when making decisions, and heed the advisories and evacuation statements of your local National Weather Service Office and emergency management officials.
Dr. Levi Cowan creates videos and blogs pertaining to tropical cyclones, primarily hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Posts occasionally concern other, non-tropical weather events around the world. Dr. Cowan has a Ph.D. in meteorology from Florida State University. - Наука та технологія
![[Thursday] Hurricane Beryl Approaching Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/NpC6Z_OCI-0/mqdefault.jpg)
![[Thursday] Hurricane Beryl Approaching Yucatan Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico](/img/tr.png)
Thank you for being informative without pandering.
Ryan Hall Y'all! 🤮
Exactly
@@TexasTimelapsehe’s more of a commentator
@@atlflgirl9634
Click bait
Never underestimate how dangerous and destructive, how long life disrupted by hurricanes. Even if nothing happens to home and family, can be forced to live like camping for who knows how long. Even if I don't practice camping, I've had to buy almost everything as if I do, and can't have the best kind of permanent automatic generators in condo complexes, because can't have anything permanent that runs on any kind of gas or gasoline, for safety reasons why. Everything electric powered, and up on concrete reinforced stilts even into the ground surrounding the wood poles. Literally hurricanes can blow away the building and the concrete reinforced stilts would remain. That's what hurricane shutters prevent from happening, because prevent impacts against the windows. Broken windows, means roof flies off. I wish we had protection of the water facing garage areas, because as it stands, everything down there could be washed away with storm surge. That's why I was checking out what using to protect hospitals in Tampa FL. It's as if lift to keep water out, but could be solar panels, because just white pebbles stones and sidewalk in front of the garage area wall that faces the water.
Getting ready to hang on in Florida, here we go again!! Be prepared, we got this!! Help your neighbors, especially the elderly, prayers up!
Thanks! My wife and I typically vacation to Hilton Head in September. Your excellent work has been very helpful to us for several years.
Thanks a lot for the support!
I nominate Dr. Cowan as the leading weatherman for this country. Gives it to us straight with no nonsense. Recently noticed that other weather channels use data from Tropical Tidbits. Thank you sir.
Seriously, he's consistently the best source of information, and because he's explaining the effects of the weather patterns on the storm, I feel more confident in what he says than main stream news. I wish he had a bigger national platform to share his observations and insight.
@@RandallLowetxno doubt if he had a bigger platform his delivery and style would also change to cater to that larger crowd.
Be careful what you wish for. I have no problem finding him on yt.
@@Ty91681 I know you're probably right, but my idealist mind hopes it wouldn't.
Thank you, Dr Cowan. Your calm, matter of fact, approach is very much appreciated.
Sending best wishes to Florida from the Mississippi gulf coast!
Glad to see folks from the Mississippi Gulf Coast watching! Grew up in Long Beach, knew too many people who got caught off guard in dangerous situations.
Best forecaster with no hurricane hype, he tells it like it is,
Good afternoon Levi
I live in Ormond Beach Fl Praying for everyone on the west side and all of Florida.
Thank you for all you do Levi❤
All of us in Bermuda thank you for your great work!!
Levi has grateful fans all around the ATL... 😊
Always appreciate your expertise, Dr. C, thank you for everything you do to keep people informed! :)
Thank you, Levi, for keeping everyone safe. Love the content.
Thank you for all you do Dr. Cowan! Been watching your page for several years now and it’s been even more important since my move to Florida almost 3 years ago
Hopefully folks in Cedar Key are taking this seriously and have evacuated or are doing so now --- We're about 50 miles due east of there and I'm having a difficult time convincing my neighbors to button down their things outside --- Spent yesterday and today securing my outside --- Please safe everyone!!!
Been watching your storm updates for years Doc, if/when the time comes for you to hang this part of the job up I am going to cry an atmospheric river over the loss. Thanks for taking the time and for being you, here's to many many more seasons of the best tropical weather content on the internet.
Thanks Dr. Levi. You've been our go-to for hurricane forecasts for the past few years. We live just south of Sarasota, so we're watching this closely. I'm comforted by the model concurrence, but I'm still nervous given the propensity for storms coming up the west coast to turn early, a la Charley and Ian style. We're prepping nonetheless.
I think Ian was originally going to Big Bend, but as it progressed, that kept moving down the coast. Until it finally settled on Charlotte Harbor. The official forecast track was more like a delayed actual track.
Great Video! This is way better than any other news coverage. You give such good information that is understandable, unlike the other news outlets. This is how weather forecasting should be done.
You’re the best for a reason Dr. Levi
All facts, no fluff; exactly what we need to keep us informed and therefore safer.
Thank you from southern Belize for your continued expert analysis on storms over the years...I only pay attention to you and YCC...
Yes... Going to check in there (YCC) this evening to see what's happening with preps in FL and Bermuda.
Thanks for your explanations. Even NHC's info is mostly just "this is what we think it will do". Your explanations give a lot of the why this is trending a certain way. Depending on how the rest of Monday goes, any chance of doing a second video today? An Update, late tonight. Is there anything that could make it take a few big zigs to the east, early, like cross Cuba and go into the Florida Straits?
Unfortunately I work full time, and past midnight eastern time, so next video will be around noon tomorrow eastern time
Thank you so much. I'm cleaning up the yard listening to your info. I'm a little north of Tampa
Thanks Levi! I'm here in Central Florida and the clouds have been screaming from the NE to the SW all morning. But, now, it's still! Nothing is moving and the clouds have just stopped! Not even a whisper of a breeze. It's interesting watching this.
Central Floridian here too, it seems like it would be a nice night for a picnic! Very calm and not so unbearably hot for the first time in a while 😅
Looks like we will be seeing quite a bit if you this season. Thank you Dr. Cowan! Excellent work.
Always give the bad news first. Lol. Once again thank you Levi for this report. You’re the only guy I really trust on this because you don’t hype it up.
Excellent analysis. Thank you Dr. This area of Florida is certainly less populated. Especially compared to the cities on the coast. Hoping for minimal damage.. less intensity on idalia.
Hey levi, I live in Apalachicola, this was very helpful thank you. I've seen your graphics in a many of EOC AUX dashboards. It is concise and always clear. Your GIS kml pipeline is by far the fastest for end-user products once published. Why no CIMSS Intensity Products? AI-RI, D-MINT maybe? Also their new ARCHER product is interesting.
You are always the go to channel for frank information.
Levi your so awesome to so many of us and I wonder if you know how many other meteorologists rely on you and follow you 🥰👍
These like to move to Port Charlotte sometimes, so we are prepared. Good luck everyone.
Thank you for your insight and updates!
Thanks for the update. Heading to Pensacola. Be safe everyone.
Dr. L.,
Your analysis of IDALIA is both informative and fascinating. Living here in Florida, I relied on your hurricane forecasts for years. You are my go to source for accuracy, minus the hype. BTW, GO NOLES…😂
Thank you, Dr Levi!
Thank you Dr.!! Always great reporting!
Thank you for the facts!
Fantastic insight, thank you Levi 👍
Thanks Levi. Appreciate it!
That time of year again, Thanks from SW FL for just the facts :)
Really appreciate your thoughts
Thank You Dr. Levi!
Thank you sir. Been following you since 2018.
Thank you sir.
Thank you Levi for the update 😊
Thank you.
Thanks for the update. Your forecasting has been spot on.
Thank you
appreciate the tidbits, cheers!
Amazing, thorough content as always. Thank you 🙏
Thank you so much for the information and explanations.
Thank you..
Thanks Levi 😊
Thanks
Thank you Levi!
Best insights out there are right here.
Incredible report.
Thanks Levi!!!💜🌀
Thanks, Levi
Thank you very much
Thanks for the straight forward information. No spin or drama here. Liked and subscribed.
Thank you so much for sharing this very well explained information, we're preparing here in Wilmington NC
Thank you for great info. Of course, we here in Florida always look for Jim Cantore.
Thanks so much. Keeping a very close eye on this being in Wilmington, NC. Idalia keeps defying all expectations and not in a good way.
Me too!
In Outer Banks watching too
I really enjoy your matter of fact, based on science approach to this hurricane prediction field. Scientists like you will save lives and save $$$. But only if the politicians and the people heed your warnings. I'm now a paid subscriber.
Merci Levi.
You are the man Levi! Keeping us informed and much appreciated. Do you sell any T-Shirts?
No swag yet! Maybe in the future 😉
With that sheer or low comin from Louisiana it shows it pushing and if this storm starts to go it looks like it would be pointed more into Tampa Bay. As you just showed basically too. The farther out numbers least a few hours ago showed it at a high 3 cat as it gets close to land up in Fla. Ugh. I'm so close to Tampa bay..
Thank you Levi! EOCs are standing by
Here we go again....another forecast Cat 3 that looks like it's going to rapidly intensify and blow past that....That small tight center of circulation 2 days ago had this written all over it.
Everything should be built to code, but rising moving waters, and whatever happens to power utilities, is where life threatening danger lies.
I am in Gainesville, we have had a few storms come in but nothing like this.
you the man
Everyone on the gulf side: pls take your animals with you now. Especially if on a barrier island. Just evacuate and take your animals. I’m hoping it’s not going to be too bad..
The angle of approach reminds me of tropical storm ETA which had a surprising level of coastal flooding. This will be much worse.
Came from Yale Climate Connections site
Would anyone on here keep their trip booked to Bermuda this week (Tuesday to Saturday) or cancel due to Franklin ? We are bringing our 7 month old daughter and don’t really want to risk it but I’m curious what others think
Ca'nt believe they haven't issued evacuations. Crazy!
Well where would they issue evacuations, other than some flood prone areas? It's coming ashore in a less populated area and will be gone by late Wednesday, early Thursday. It's not a cat5 like Ian.
@@sandrabentley8111defo a 4
I know we are a week out but can you provide some update to possible impacts of Idalia to Bermuda after it pushes off the coast of the US? Thanks, appreciate your updates!
I live in SWFL. This thing has got me jumpy. They said Ian would go north to Tampa too. It instead took a right turn and slammed us
I heard last night Tampa has protection from Indian burial grounds that protect it. Not scientific but it could be.
@@reginaangell5327 I highly doubt that
all you can do is get prepared because there's no telling what mother nature is gonna do.
Don't worry I know it isnt easy but if you watched the progression of Ian last year the euro never budged from where it was. The gfs unreliable ones said panhandle but euro always stood pat where Ian landed a few days ahead. Now the euro is standing pat in the big bend area
Thank you Dr. Cowan! Always highly informed videos, and its much appreciated.
On the topic of Idalia, what are the odds of that storm pulling an Ivan, and swinging back down to the tip of the peninsula before going back into the gulf? I guess the real question: was Ivan incredibly unique in hitting the US 3 times?
Hey is destin florida area safe
I've got a question i've noticed a pattern where initial cones put hurricanes in this big bend region and then as they get closer the suddenly shift and almost seem magnetized to charlotte harbor what do you think are the chances of that ocurring here?
God protect the people in the path 🙏
I think it's going to hit north of Tampa and south of the bend
Impacts are really coming...my way.😩🥺😢🙏🏻
Why is this on my screen only NOW, six days late??? (I open this tablet every day with my mornng coffee.)
Levi, will the full moon play a role in the level of storm surge?
Is the POSTING time about Noon (11 AM - 1 PM) or about 1530Z on Monday? (Would be helpful to also post the time, date, as well as day.) I wish UA-cam showed ALL video posting times, i.e., an "ABOUT" of each video.
Dr. Cowan, what about the theory of Idalia turning right because of a down south push and the northern front?
Storm Idalia LIVE: Florida preps for Cat 4 hurricane as DeSantis tells 1.5m 'get out now'
I’m very curious Levi, as to why the NAM 3km model is always bullish when forecasting hurricanes?
It has a shortcoming that leads it to cause an unrealistically large heat flux off the ocean, fueling hurricanes too much in that model. It is not useful for hurricane forecasting
@@Tropical-Tidbits how can a shortcoming like that potentially be fixed?
Levi only states factual information while keeping calm. That said, even slight intensity in his voice and verbage should be heeded. I feel pretty confident this one will be a doozy.
what are the chances of this doing a loop later on per GFS?
It’s still days away
models are trending even stronger
Doesn't have time to strengthen too much beyond cat3. It'll be zooming.
@@sandrabentley8111 cat 3 at 111 or a high end cat 3 that is a huge difference i still think this could be a low end cat 4 there have been examples of storms going from a tropical depression to a cat 4 in less than 24 hours
@@sandrabentley8111 it will be getting stronger right until it makes landfall as water temps are extremely hot in the gulf
👍
Could it pull more eastward if it intensifies quickly?
I wondered that but it appears the models are taking that into account.
@@TheNickhammondBecause up till now the models kept it weak. Even the track now says only 3. But if it reaches 3 or more shortly after passing Cuba then maybe more eastward. That's what happened with Ian.
Nam myoho rengekyo 🙏 pray 🌍 peace be safe***+
GOVERNOR GAVIN NEWSOME, DID YOU FIND JUANITO DIEGO???
goat
thanks for update. We're in north port. are we ok/safe? what type of wind could we receive? power outages? was thinking 70-75mph winds/heavy rains, is that correct?
I'm not a good source for details on local impacts. You can find the information you seek from NWS Tampa: www.weather.gov/tbw/
the dreaded i storm will be retired again
I’m betting Miami gets a surprise attack
Miami is on the east coast