Why the World's Microchip Crisis Will Last Longer Than You Think
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- Опубліковано 25 січ 2022
- Short Summary: Microchips are in most of today's technology, from an electric toothbrush to an SUV. But the supply of microchips has yet to catch up with its growing demand. Unfortunately, it's not so easy to just increase production.
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It’s pretty hard to imagine a world without microchips. They’re not just in tech like your phone and computer, but in pretty much every electronic you’ll encounter today: refrigerators, washing machines, strings of LED lights, electric toothbrushes, cars, and so much more. They used to be so easy to get they cost only about a dollar each, but right now they’re going for as much as 150 bucks a pop because there’s a huge shortage, which isn’t entirely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Why are these microchips so useful, and so in-demand? Well, they’re Moore’s Law made real-tens of billions of transistors packed into a space about as big as your pinky fingernail. A transistor is essentially a tiny electrical switch that lets electrons flow when open or stops them when closed. These transistors are layered over and around one another on a wafer made of silicon to create a network that functions together as a circuit. The pattern of electrons flowing through these gates, plus sensors and other stuff, allow you to communicate with the device. But these chips are getting smaller and smaller, packed with more and more processing power.
When we’re talking about ten of billions of transistors in the space of a few nanometers, the manufacturing becomes HUGELY complicated and time-consuming. We’re talking cleanrooms with air 10,000 times more filtered than normal room air etching the transistors with super precise lasers A facility capable of producing chips like this costs tens of billions of dollars to make, so…they’re just a little tough to get up and running. And during the COVID-19 pandemic, many of those invaluable chip factories had to close, along with the rest of the world.
#seeker #science #elements #microchips #tech
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Before you put silicon into chipmaking machines, you need a clean room. A very clean room. Individual transistors are many times smaller than a virus. Just one speck of dust can cause havoc and millions of dollars of wasted effort. To mitigate this risk, chipmakers house their machines in rooms that essentially have no dust.
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Chipmakers, spurred on by the Biden administration and a bipartisan push on Capitol Hill, have announced nearly $80 billion in investments in U.S. manufacturing since the start of 2021, according to the White House.
The humble mineral that transformed the world
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Semiconductor devices called transistors are the tiny electronic switches that run computations inside our computers. Scientists in the US built the first silicon transistor in 1947. Before that, the mechanics of computing had been performed by vacuum tubes, which were slow and bulky. Silicon changed everything.
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I read an interview with a top guy from ASML, the company that is building the machines that build chips. They have pending orders worth 1,5 years of revenue at the moment and can't speed up production because first of it takes a lot of time to build the machine building machines and they require a lot of chips, where the shortage is coming in again. Their prediction was 2025 for them to be on level with demand, 2027 to have worked away the backlog. So 2023 end of chip shortage? Not according to that guy who was at the start of the entire production chain.
ASML's machines are super complex though, so even without the shortage, they'd still have some backlog. The tolerances for the optics and moving parts are within the picometer range. How does one even perform measurements with this precision in a production environment?
end for rtx 3090 gamers
And that's assuming there are no more major disruptions in the supply chain...
To be fair, Seeker claims that it's too optimistic
@@Psychx_ I worked at ASML. It's fascinating stuff at the bleeding edge of technology.
Most spacial measurements are done optically, i.e. software analyses images made through a microscope and then adjusts mechanical processes accordingly.
"Potentially larger price tags" ?! Its not potential, it is already happening! Any PC enthusiast knows this. Edit: This wasn't in an angry tone, just a bit shocked.
I like your videos, but as a semiconductor engineer, that 1 dollar/100 dollar stuff is just bullshit or bad investigation. Chips vary widely, there are chips that cost 2 3 cents, processors that cost 300 400. You can't just say a chip costed 1 and now costs 100...which chip?
The potato chip!
@@vitaminb4869 chippies mate
Totally agree. Unfortunately, they often make strange comparisons, clickbait titles and politics promotion. It’s not a neutral scientific channel for sure.
@@KlimovArtem1 There's the door.
@@KyleHatch21 nah, I’m staying and watching. Someone just must say ugly truth, you know.
Just noticed a small error. She said that electricity flows when the gates are open and stops when the gates are closed.
Actually, with circuits, the electricity flows when the gates are closed
They should be called Bridges instead of Gates. When the bridge is up traffic stops and when the bridge comes down the cars can move again.
Sorry to nitpick but it is important fot people to understand how electricity works.
It's disingenuous to suggest prices are 100x what they were. Discretes and commodity parts have always sold for pennies, and complex digital parts like CPUs have always been expensive.
As someone in the automotive manufacturing industry, the prices were in fact 100x higher, mainly from chip scalpers.
@@TheOneVictor as someone who works in the semiconductor industry that just isn't true. Automotive spec'd parts have always been more expensive because they are tested and packaged to far higher standards than the same part in a commercial package.
This technology should be expensive, we don't want everybody walking around with the latest and greatest just to not even use a quarter of it's power. People who really want it will work hard for it just as the people who worked hard to create it.
Can’t wait to see “tens of billions of transistors in just a few nanometers!” For the record, the state of the art TSMC N5 is about 13 billion transistors in 100 mm² (based on the Apple M1).
That will never happen because it's physically impossible. It's like trying to fit tens of billions of people in a car.
@@vitaminb4869 Which is why I pointed out how the M1 has ~13 billion in 100mm2. An aluminum atom is about 125pm in diameter, so in one square nm, you could pack about 64 atoms at most. Obviously, transistors require far more than a single atom, and in fact when we talk about “5nm lithography” there’s no feature on current transistors that directly corresponds to 5nm in size.
Yup. Maybe she is doing her own scripts.
Can someone explain to me WHY chips need to get smaller. I know some actually do need to shrink, but for example, why does the chip in your fridge or in your car need to be so small? Say they made a better chip that had XYZ performance and the size of a dime, or they made a chip with same performance but the size of a wedding ring box, I don't see it affecting performance or taking up too much room in your fridge or car. What piece am I missing?
@@noahway13 The bigger it is, the more distance electrons have to travel, so it slows it down. The main chip that does all the calculations needs to have as many calculations going on per second as possible, so it needs to be small to be able to have higher clock speeds and for each operation to take as little time as possible
There is an error in this video. Electrons flow when a circuit is closed, and stops the flow when open. This is a basic rule in electronics.
Yes you are correct about the circuit, but in the context of this video she compares a transistor to a switch - so she's not really talking about a circuit being open or closed in the first place.
it's more of a bridge than a gate then
@@Nuke_Skywalker Yes, and no. In a wired circuit with a switch you are correct. The two most common types of transistors, bipolar and FET, however, operate quite differently.
On the FET, one of the pins is actually labeled 'gate'. And it operates with nomenclature for one of the parameters being called pinch off, which is a gate type function, and occurs when the gate is closed. Definitely more an analog to a gate.
A bipolar transistor could be thought of more like a bridge, though. With injected current controlling the larger current between the other two pins. You can kind of think of a transistor as an amplifier. In most logic devices it is primarily operated as a switch, just on or off, one or zero, true/false, however you want to call it, but what it really is is just two different voltages.
"The needs of life are fundamental everywhere. Advanced technology does not relieve you of these needs entirely and in fact can escalate them tremendously. Do you think that great technological societies in the universe are not desperate for resources, resources that now they cannot create themselves but must trade for and negotiate for, from far, far away? They have lost their self-determination. They are controlled now by the very networks of trade upon which they depend."
A quote from *The Greater Community* book, by Marshall Vian Summers.
Very relevant quote, thank you.
Thank you Ivan
This makes such sense. Why would life "out there" be any different than life here? Great quote. Thank you.
@@alwalw9237 A better question is why WOULDN'T it be different? And the answer is it almost certainly will. The physics is constant though, at least in our visible universe.
So far we know of no way to make something out of nothing, but there may ultimately be ways to tap into fundamental energies we haven't even discovered yet and do exactly that, who knows? Almost certainly, if we can survive as a species long enough, we will have access to virtually unlimited energy (I'm talking the FAR FAR future). It could be an appreciable total of the sun's total output. With that kind of power on tap, obtaining whatever materials we wish that exist in the solar system (all of them that we know of, and some that we don't) will be child's play, virtually of no consequence.
I would really love to know how this guy thinks he can pin down what "great technological societies in the universe" could or couldn't do, since so far we can't even find where life assuredly exists, and know very very little of what there is to know, near zero percent, I expect. I predict we will discover extra terrestrial, extra solar system, and maybe even extra galactic life at some point, and that life exists most everywhere where conditions will allow, on billions of worlds. Sentient life, not so much, but there will possibly be such life, and maybe a lot of it. There are a whole crap load of worlds out there. Uncountable stars, and more planets.
I should say that we might accomplish that level of tech with the caveat that we don't utterly destroy the one place we have that is livable, which we are well on our way to doing, before we can achieve that goal.
She is the best host on Seeker!
IKR
Idk a bit too dramatic but it's okay
@@MoSamArafat she always seems normal to me.
Meh
I disagree. She is kinda annoying
I work in the EMS industry and it's absolutely brutal.
0:44 You got that backwards. Switches conduct electricity when they're CLOSED, and do not conduct electricity when OPEN.
I never imagined that the reason Moore's Law would finally be broken is because of the inability to produce the electronics. Up until now, a doubling of transistors every two years has been possible BECAUSE these devices could be produced. It looks like the "quantum ceiling" has been put on hold for the time being.
everything is fake these no mineral shortage, these a monopolisation of fab capacity by massive Crypto farm lobbyiest.
i dont think that they want to go back to selling chips for 1$ a pop. i think they are perfectly happy selling one for 130$+ lol
The reason Moore's Law broke, is because the transistors can only be made so small before they lose the ability to hold a charge. Work has been done to make designs more efficient, but there are material limits to consider, and silicon transistors can only do so much. Some work has been done to investigate graphine, but it's not usable last I heard. So, manufacturing is not the issue. Moore's law is about making transistors smaller, rather than making them en masse.
@@sirdeadlock *silicon
@@vibaj16 Thank you. Will edit.
I really want a deep dive by seeker on the fabrication of cutting-edge semiconductor fabrication, how everything works, where it all comes from, and how it's formed the tech industry we know today. It'd not only be informative, but also knowing how mind-mendingly advanced the fabrication process is, it's really fun too!
Nice to see you back
1:12 When we're talking about tens of billions of transistors in the space of a few nanometers !!
I'm sorry what !!!
Yes I also reacted to that. Maybe she meant tens of billions of transistors each the size of a few nanometers.
Thanks, you beat us to calling out the "trendy tech word" mash-up
"Slowly chipping away..." 🤣 I see what you did there, Maren! Very nice.
My favorite host, thank you for getting such insightful information.
You're my favorite
Who is she
@@diego4ever425 Maren Hunsberger
@@diego4ever425 she's got an x-videos account
@@curiodyssey3867 how would you know
@0:54 Transistors are placed side by side.. Not overlapping (LMAO).. the only thing overlapping is metal layers (and possibly a high up via.. but that depends on the tech).
I believe that's the next step once we can't get transistors smaller: stack them in layers, so a chip with the same footprint can have 100 times more transistors, or at that point tens of thousands times more
Love the new look Maren, thanks for the update.
And this is one reason why I support more train infrastructure over electric car growth. Each train needs a fraction of the chips to move the same number of people.
Rail is the way forwards for mass transit.
What if we just went back to when cars were analog, no chips needed just wire and 6v systems
@@mynameisntimportant9341 I still think trains are a better use of resources, and car-based urban development causes so many problems that it may lead to the downfall of our society. It's not that there's no place in society for cars, but we have to stop catering to them.
@@mynameisntimportant9341 In general because they were less efficient and polluted more in the non chip era.
Some things are ridiculous though, cars with CAN bus systems will have chips in every single thing, like even the indicator stalk where a standard set of contact switches and a small bunch of wires would suffice.
This is why you only see oldschool cars in the mad max films, nothing full of chips could be serviced in the outback!
I’d say it might be better for items, rather than ppl.because ppl need solutions for the last mile, while cargo is usually bulked till the last mile.
Short. Informative. Plus a cutie... big win.
nice retro synthwave music 👌
Great video
1:05, the way she said "You" legit sounded like the "You sent a message" sound XD
All I know is the chip crisis has made me unable to buy a g card because I refuse to pay inflated prices
Time to do something productive with your life, instead of playing video games.
There are actually a lot more smaller fabs, producing smaller and/or more specialised components. There are at least two in the town I live in, which isn't a big city. I visited one last month, and they say they don't see the chip shortage as a problem - because their product is in demand of course.
remember when ibm, motorala, Texas instruments where some of the biggest chip manufacture. some things should not be just full on capitalized.
Supply & Demand: Business 101
Nice video.
Hmmm you may want to do a quick fact check. Either transistors the size of nanometers or billions in a chip. The lasers do generally not etch, etc.
I did t hear China and rare earth metals mentioned once, do neither of the two play a factor?
No, semiconductor electronics aren't really constrained by raw materials. Neither by cheap labor btw, the manufacturing is very much automated.
The chips are often just a very very small area of the case. The cases are that large for normal board mounting I/O. If you've seen any chip on board that will really impress you.
Ahh the "chipping away" pun at the very end. Whyyy!!
My 3080 Ti Shall carry my PC through these murky waters!
It's time to bond more with nature than with things made by ourselves.
F nature I'm playing some elden ring
🌳♻️🥗😍🙏
You need to understand the difference between open and closed in an electronic circuit. It’s not a water tap!
0:20 define 1- 150$? That's a wierd statement. That's like saying a house costed 1000$ but now 200 000$
I love the FEd reserve fractional Banking system. Its fare and balance lol
That'll learn us for outsourcing absolutely everything to cheaper countries to cut costs.
The shortage is definitely caused by the pandemic. Supply chain may have been fragile prior, but it was performing and goods were able to be supplied at a cheap price. Sure it could have had issues further along, but the pandemic is certainly the cause of it breaking much sooner and at greater scale.
end for rtx 3090 gamers
Is she's talking, I'm watching, and listening😍.
Intel's Chandler, AZ is Fab 32, not 42. I see their work orders daily.
And this is why anyone wanting to purchase a new car have to wait 8 to 10 months. In Australia that is.
Lol went from maybe 2023 to maybe 2030, this is gonna suck in a world dominated by tech
We will be dealing with that while all the other growing global problems destroy us
I'm in love with the host
I wonder what would happen if we recycled components
How? XD
As some one that works in semiconductors she doesn’t really doesn’t know what shes talking about. BEVs had little impact on demand… also yes we are back ordered until 2027.
>she
Bro they read off a script. It depends on who wrote that
When did Maren Hunsberger start presenting again? I’ve missed her episodes.
Ten of billions Transistor in the space of a few Nanometer. We wish we could build such small Transistor
Can’t even mention bit mining. The real problem with the shortage. 🤦♂️🤦♂️
Outsourcing everything is a great idea...
The music is a bit too loud over the commentary. I find it distracting
Maren!🤩
Pain
We really need to mine a Meteor, Moon or Planet, atleast that's my suggestion to help but Artificial Intelligence also should be used.
Selling less for more
Manufacturer: yes
When did Brooke Sheilds start working on this channel? 😉😉👍🏾
Well done! It's articulated clearly and concisely. One area that can continue to grow exponentially in this environment is software. Modern software can be built on current hardware and is not constrained by Moores law. It can be later deployed on new hardware at scale...
Nice
Adapting to Quantum technology
I feel like people will soon farm crystalized GPUs whereas it can do fiber-optic calculations with no moving parts but through the changes of light intensities and colors from the LEDs inside, therefore... no need for any cooling... and allowing for over 20x the battery power. Plus... AI will figure out how to optimize this new technology.
It is planned, sell the same for way WAY more...
Planned what? They output the same amount of chips. Demand is just too high.
@@vitaminb4869 exactly
You are the best at explaining
I'm curious about the working conditions in chip factories if they're having to keep up so heavily with the world's demand
Luckily the vast majority of the work is automated with fewer humans needed, based on the factory deel dives videos that the companies release
Yep most of the processes are automated and you can't really rush making chips. A certain minor error in fabrication could easily damage them and then they would need to discard it.
... Wow.
Working conditions are some of the best in the world, high contamination suppression, 95% automated processes, employees rarely do overtime (split shifts with consistent schedules/salaries), benefits and insurance.
Current production is still the same, if not slightly reduced due to supply procurement delays.
Didn't they used to produce chips in the US
I made chips this morning
Are you sure about tens of billions of transistors in a space of few nanometers ? I guess nanometer is the current scale which means single transistors are that size.
They saving all the chips for AI robots. 😂
This is easily one of the most depressing news facts for geeks and gamers of the coming 8 years..
I mean... it's sand... how do you ran out of sand...
Cover the science behind apple's m1 chip!
Grape
Wow
Probably half the chips are unavailable.
Due dates in 2023!
Yet another reason why hiding in our homes is not a viable strategy for more than a few weeks… “to flatten the curve”
Remember that lie?
The reason it didn't work is people like you refusing to actually do it
Slowly chipping away
Sounds like someone has a chip on their shoulder?
Then produce chips in the UK or the USA or Europe! ...what´s the problem?
Is there a reason this didn't address crypto farming's acceleration of the shortage?
More like Moore's gross estimation.
😂😂Is it a real thing?
@@yogeshykvOfficial yeah it was a pretty accurate prediction on chip development. It states something in line of doubling the chip density of transistors every 2yrs. But I think I remember it was just an Intel business goal.
We'll have to double down on potato chips then
This will justify more inflation
I'm the type who constantly hopes for a massive Carrington Event, so this so called chip crisis, meh.
Artificial scarcity
check the dump lol
Im all set jokes on you!
5:15 "slowly chipping away"
This pun is a chip on my shoulder.
She Got My Like😂…
humans did not create chips. I challenge anyone to refute me...
Micro chips
By 2030 we'll probably see an up dated version of Xbox Series X.
I suggest car manufactures should start making simpler, cheaper and more reliable cars instead of the current overengineered pile of junk.
Microcrisps
Because humans waste material? Yeah Had a feeling.
What?? You don't want to blame what really caused the CHIP shortage??? Come on, American government!!!
"lets electrons flow when open, or stops them when closed" lol. I hate it when my fuse shorts out!
Well it was dumb and shortsighted for developed nations (USA, Canada, etc .) to move manufacturing abroad.
Yup, this is why you ain't got your ps5 yet
India 🇮🇳 can manufacturer better then China 🇨🇳 with " quality ", ethics and skill workers. We can expert less price products from 🇮🇳. several company's like Dell IBM EY tayota Bosh ...ect (around 150000 companys) are operational in India with out any problem and skilled labor. Even Government promoting new companies with incentives and some times free land allocation. In India for rapid transport 5 DFC are under construction 27 8 line national Hiways are adding in 2022.. Thanks to government😍
damnn she so dreamy..