Cutting Edge Drone SHOT DOWN - Not All Positive, Confirms A Growing Problem For Ukraine | Map Update
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- Опубліковано 11 жов 2024
- G'day Legends, I hope you're doing well,
Today we talk about the Ukrainian Offensive into Kursk and Russia's Eastern offensive into Pokrovsk and look at the war map updates.
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I served in the Australian Infantry from 2014-2021, With specialist qualifications in Heavy Weapons/Anti-Armour, Combat First Aid, With a tour to Afghanistan as a crew commander of a Armoured Mobility Vehicle.
Upon my Return I was unexpectedly diagnosed with a Incurable and Inoperable Brain tumour that is slowly killing me. I was also awarded the Queens Order of Australia Medal (OAM) hence the post nominals after my name. Then Being medically separated from the Army I flew to Ukraine in 2022 for 6.5months and now make content full time. I really appreciate you being here Thankyou
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The real issue is we have a SU57 and a wingman S-70 drone flying around behind enemy lines. It means either Ukraine cannot detect it, or they have no air defence. The 300,000 troops mobilized by Russia were mainly artillery, air defence, logistics and additional trainers. Not raw infantry.
Also a lot to secure the Donbass, de-mine it and alike.
They've launched a foolhardy expedition into Kursk oblast, which they would know puts them outside of any advanced anti-aircraft umbrella, and are paying for it. Their very capable pre-war S-300 network is completely demolished and the few Patriot, NASAMS units will have to be used to protect critical point targets; Kiev, key airbases and the like, for example. It's looking grim. Patriot is not massive area-defence like THAAD, as many of the uninitiated seem to think it is.
@@davidlloyd2583 Chasiv Yar isn't behind Ukrainians lines.
It's the Front line
@@josephjroy6593 Either way, the question stands - why were they not engaged? If they were on the frontline, this means they were close enough for even MANPADs to engage, or at least attempt to. Yet we don't see it.
@@MaxCroatthese would be priority 1, 'Flash Gordon approaching; open fire, all weapons!' target, too, not the sort of thing that you worry about wasting ammunition on.
You're a true soldier, Willy, pressing on regardless. Respect.
Yes
@GeoffDemarest
Much. Respect!
With your last video you became a paragon of humanity and dignity. Thank you Willy.
@@fabiusconstablemusic
The dignity is strong with this one!
@@fabiusconstablemusic
Naw. He is still a Zogbot
As one soldier to another. I appreciate how you care about the lives of soldiers on both sides. Soldiers aren't evil. They are just men serving their countries.
Azov……….not ALL soldiers are good guys with a sense of duty bud.
@@Boobear83 don t forget about the rusich group.
Soldiers are evil, it's just happens that not all of them evil and it's pointless to focus on them being evil, when you inevitably would support one of evil sides
@@niklas8578 I obviously wouldn’t forget about any or all groups. I’m not going to write a novel listing every single group I know about and ones I don’t know about obviously, I just picked one that obviously is not good.
Obeying evil orders doesn t absolves you.
That s what the nuremberg trials were for.
The F-117 was shot down by a S--125 made in 1963.
And radar was turned on just for short bursts of the time, like turn it on for 40 seconds, and then turn off and move
& Using radar that still uses vacuum tubes
I was holding parts of the F-117 in my hands, later I found out paint is extremely toxic and cancerous.
Parts of the wings had a honeycomb structure from materials like paper.
BLACK LIVES MATTER
The Houtis shoot down every month Us drone reaper and others but willy don't show thad
Found you deeply NAFO at first, but now can't do without your channel.
Deeply factual and documented.
Love you willy.
He's got a nafo tattoo.
Those damn North Atlantic Fisheries Organization b*stards.
The SU-57 was said to have had air to air kills long ago. Ukraine also still has plenty of ground based radars and aircraft that should be able to detect aircraft from hundreds of km away. Looks like Ukrainian/NATO radars failed to detect those aircraft which were ridiculed as being “not stealthy” since they were revealed. 🤣
Ridculed by NAFO and then spread to other echo chambers; the opinion should never have gained traction if more people had thought for themselves.
As an armchair expert, I can confirm 98% probability that it was due to a loss of comms.
Possibly hacked?
@@Doomer1984Possibile, Iranians hacked U.S advanced drone decade ago. I heard that Iranians managed drone to think he is in above his landing territory in Pakistan or Afghanistan, so it landed in open field in Iran. What strange is that U.S didn't bombed it. And Obama haven't done much about it, other than publicly asking Iranians to return it. 😂
@@Doomer1984 most probably jammed
@@sk.saifullahhafiz2395 Hardly, it's at 25K' due to the contrails seen, as they don't appear at low altitudes, they only appear above 25K, they're above most SAM envelopes as well, and the fact they were able to fly over Ukraine without being detected, or intercepted ...hmmm where's the F16's with their game changing AMRAAMs when you needed them?
Agreed. Basically, losing the communication, S70 was purposefully destroyed.
Keeping you in my prayers,Willy 🙏 From Louisville Ky
Sounds like a nice place.
Good to see you today, Matt. Keep fighting the good fight mate. Thank you for the effort you put into your updates. ❤
losing a drone is no where near losing one sixth of yr F16s with a fully trained pilot on his first mission, equipment is easily replaceable manpower isn't and that's why Ukraine is losing this war!
Very much true 😢😢😢
But who really thinks Russia is out of manpower, really who ,and who are these military experts anyway if they are from Russia then that's just propagand,, Russia has the second biggest army in the world now.like seriously Ukraine can not win this war ,, about Kursk everyone who is in Kursk are American and polish mercenary mostly,they fight good though but is a just a matter of time till they are out of Kursk ,but 2years and still people haven't learned that Russia doesn't work with ,they do whatever is in there hearts and damn patient too ,so people here think they work with no they don't they work on the battlefield more than any other military power that's why they are dominating in Ukraine,when Ukraine is out of manpower completely,the one who will surrender will never raise a finger again to the Russians never ever ,so just wait and see what happens,you change with time menh ,,it's not how long you take ,its decisively win over your opponent but on the other side Ukrainians are working like NATO with but they never understand that's why they are falling terribly,just sit and watch
Russia has the second biggest army in the world? Really? And they barely do any progress in Ukraine. Even if they did have the second biggest army, they really do suck since they haven't done much over the past years.
I can agree they did take some land, but wouldn't you expect them to have completely taken the whole country if not 99% within a year? You need to really think about your statement
@@JC-yy5nf Bro, enough with the horseshit talk about nothing you know. Willy even explain in the video why it's happening this way. You clearly are a bot who 'can't' watch the video.
Hope your well and Im sorry about the health news , will be keeping you in my prayers
Just wanted to say you are a real trooper brother. Soldier on with your battles and thanks for the updates you bring daily. All the best my friend 🙏✌️✌️
Bonus payments rather than conscription is about the most fair warfighting tactic I have ever heard of.
certainly better than kidnapping, as is the case in Ukraine. despicable.
Simp. Ukraine is fighting for its existence. If you still don’t know the difference. Men….
@@wesleymeer3173 And the Russians are fighting for their existence, too!
@@wesleymeer3173 NAZI.
@wesleymeer3173 existence? Is Russia going to annihilate the population? You fight wars for political objectives, which in Russia's case are the annexed oblasts. Nobody with any sense expects them to seriously occupy a nation twice the size of France with any fewer than 2-2.5 million soldiers, which they don't have... which nobody has, these days.
Hope to see your videos for a long time (hopefully soon about peace talks)
Thanks, Willy OAM. I was driving when I heard your discussion yesterday. It was a very inspirational message.I thought Hitchen's was special too. He was very courageous and outspoken, but honest.
Praying for you Willie! For peace, healing and your family!
Good morning Willy Watchers
Good god man. I never signed up to be called a Willy watcher
Lol lots of men watching 1 willy
Truth is that Ukraine lost this war in 2014.
Not lost. Strategically delayed.
With russia being so powetful 2.5 they still havent overpowered ukraine. Definetely the 2nd mulitary power in ukraine
@@joseescobar9314 they destroyed NATO and Us European union...
so IDK wtf U talking about😂
@@joseescobar9314 You have no idea what you are talking about.🙄
F-16, where art thou?
Blasted to atoms by their own side, along with the pilot, the last I heard
@@jamesgornall5731 Guess we'll run with your trusted intelligence, James Gornall.
@@sveng35 well, dude is right, ukies shot down their own f-16 the fist day it took off and you punching the air
@@sveng35 one was shot down by their own side, this was admitted and the name of the pilot released by Ukraine. Come on, mate, keep up!
@@sveng35 considering this was above the Ukrainian skies, why were the F16's unable to intercept either the Drone, or the Su57 ? Were they not even flying CAP for the normal Ukrainian strike packages? It's more than likely that Ukraine simply doesn't have that capability anymore
As long as there aren't official statements from russian sources about the drone, we only can speculate. But I think it's highly likely the drone suffered a technical malfunction, as it's still a prototype, such as loss of comms, which renders the drone uncontrollable and risks crashing in ukrainian territory. Highly unlikely it was accidental friendly fire.
Hi Matt,
Thank you for the high quality objective reporting. Your videos have been an integral part of my morning routine.
All the best!
-Bailey
"only 2 examples have been built"
serial number C-70-4. means there are at least 4 built.
this was also a less advanced version, it appears to have been one of the prototype S-70's
in 2021 the Russians unveiled a more advanced version, with a better shaped air intake, as well as exhaust to further reduce the radar signature.
the S-70 that was shot down, does not appear to have these more advanced design features.
Cope more. 😂
@@jasonpednault465the true cope is that Ukraine and the west have been claiming neither of these systems were active in Ukraine. The embarrassment here is that they both fly over Ukraine with absolute impunity. You’ll notice it wasn’t the Ukrainians that shot it down. Lmfao.
@@jasonpednault465 cant be cope if hes just pointing out facts🤷♂️
@@jasonpednault465, i think that you are coping.
@@jasonpednault465 we all see who is here cooping😂
По русским канал с утра пишут сьо месту падения беспилотника ударили "Искандер-М", возможны потери среди инженеров с запада.
I would be surprised if they passed on the opportunity. Would be very foolish of western intelligence to get anywhere near that crash site.
At any rate, Matt I was sorry to hear last year was a hard one for you. Your remarks were very good and inspirational.
Keep up the great work Willie 😊
Your honesty and bravery ... reflects on your pride when sharing your views and knowledge 😊
Thank you👍
Whatever the cost and onwards 😆
Keep going ... as what you are doing you love ❤ and what you are giving... we love ❤
Win Win 😅
Almost every week theres a deep dive into russian losses and mobilisation. But for ukraine theres nothing. come on willy.
I so hope your ok and I’m praying for your health and happiness
life is a walk on thin ice for all of us. I wish you the best of luck.
Im pretty sure it just lost its communication during an experimental flight, and it drifted towards Ukranian direction. Decision where made to get it down before this tech reach the enemy. Btw its an older testmodel, you can see it on the nozzles, they are not flat.
34:00 - Im surprised that the economist being quoted hasn't mentioned that workers in key roles in key industries are normally exempted from mobilisation in any country. It isnt rational to have a purely random lottery where you take an aerospace engineer with a PhD from Moscow State University to have him work as a logistics clerk or, even worse, in a totally unsuitable role such as an infantryman.
The UK during the World Wars had entire categories of 'reserved occupations' workers in which were completely exempted from conscription, when it began, this was all the way from those employed directly in the defence and machine tool industries, through to accountants and various departments of the Civil Service. In fact, in the North-West, where I am from, there were so many young lads who wanted to get out of the coal mines and volunteered early on that 10% of those later called up were sent straight down into the pits, instead of into uniform. One side of my family went into the Army (Granddad, as a skilled tradesman sent to the Far East as a Royal Engineer Sapper, my Great-Uncles into the Military Police, one would later become a Chief-Superintendent in the Lancashire Police Force), whereas my other side (8 boys out of 16 children) 1 was already a professional soldier as had been my Great Granddad, 3 volunteered, 2 ended up as PoW, but the rest were miners and not only exempted from conscription, but even FORBIDDEN from volunteering, as being in a reserved occupation. These men probably had harder lives than my uncles, who were taken prisoner.
Likewise, Russia or any other nation could not afford to gather up huge numbers of men from the oil and gas industries, but could do so from men working as retail assistants, clerks, security guards, thousands of jobs which are of secondary importance during wartime. You can backfill many jobs fairly easily. You can even employ female soldiers in REMF-type occupations such as logistics, Signals-IT-Comms, Intelligence, and Counterintelligence, the list goes on, freeing up men for front-line duty.
When talking about men fleeing the country to avoid being drafted, these will be those with the resources to do so, and was quite common in the USA during the Vietnam war, lest anyone forget, with men from wealthy families suddenly opting to study abroad, or simply study anywhere, even though they were as dumb as tent-posts. Less wealthy men simply tried their luck skipping the border into Canada, and a number went to prison for refusal to be drafted, such as, famously, Muhammed Ali, who said that no Vietnamese man had ever done him any wrong.
Anyone who thinks that the draft lotteries are purely random, without exception, should re-read Plato's 'Republic'.
Standards NAFOS can't read...
The S70 wreckage was hit later with an Islander when engineers were examining it at the site .
Moths to flame strategy.
Malfunctioned so the SU-57 shot it down bud.
He don't care. He's vomiting bs as always
what a crap
lol. You guys need more copium.
At least the Russians were able to track and take out their malfunctioning equipment, unlike that F35 that flew around the east coast unmanned for hours...
@@jasonpednault465 yeah, Russia is totally getting their ass kicked... that's why Ukraine is giving up its most fortified position. The NAFO beech party in cinema will be happening in 2025 right?
You're making a positive impact on the world, a true inspiration. Thank You!
hey man, greetings from Brazil here! Have strength soldier!
I look forward to your channel every morning it's the first thing I do when I wake up
Thank you for the updates willy, hope you have a great day!
Much love brotha yesterdays vid killed me mate 😢✊🏼💚
Keep on keeping on, bud. pullin for you.
G'day legend I'm wishing you all the best ole mate
You will not sink mate. Godspeed recovery 🙏✋
15:00 the only problem is that Western defence corporations are in the private sector and as such their ultimate responsibility is to their owners, be these truly private or publicly-listed corporations, and NOT to the defence of the nation. Certainly, this allows them to swallow up government R&D money and price gouge as much as they wish, but also incentivises Just-In-Time procurement, and consequent deliberately limited stockpiles and smaller priduction runs, in order to maximise cost. This is fine during peacetime or while fighting fairly limited-scale counterinsurgency operations in the Middle East, but poses enormous drawbacks in the sudden outbreak of conventional hostilities, or while supplying a proxy, as there is little incentive to ramp production when your own forces are not directly involved when any new facilities would be mothballed or detonated whenever the proxy conflict comes to an end, with the newly-trained workforce summarily laid-off (as is permitted in most US states, not so much in the EU). If you're a private company, are you going to go to all that expense, or simply put the cost up per unit for items you're already selling to the government?
The Soviet Union, by contrast, maintained production because it had a fully-nationalised machine tool and defence industry, which was building conventional arms whether the military required them or not, in order to maintain full employment. The reason for the abandoned tank parks was the vampirism of the state post-Soviet collapse and the 'decade of anarchy' which followed. Russia more or less integrated its defence industry and re-nationalised it some time ago, and as their own men and women are fighting a war, the mothballed factories have been reopened and people are working in the defence industry, 24/7, once again. This is the crucial difference, when your own sons and daughters are being sent to fight, society tends to cohere rather than fragment through nationalism, shared familial concerns or indeed, faith; all of these, by the way, were factors cleverly leveraged by Stalin during the Great Patriotic War, where Communist rhetoric was deliberately downplayed in place of the factors outlined above, plus the fact that it quickly became clear that the German intent was to completely annihilare the population of the Soviet Union and raze European Russia to the ground.
These are the differences in policy options when you're fighting with your own forces, as opposed to when you're using a pawn to do it for you. I dont believe in any way that the US mikitary industrial complex anticipates the war in Ukraine to persist long enough for them to reap a return on investments, and extra money will simply be pocketed by shareholders (further enriching the US upper-classes who have far more invested in such companies than the avrrage citizen with their 401k, who will certainly see a bump, but not in the same league as the major shareholders) and further encourage tge price-gouging which already goes on, while creating fat pork-barrels for individual states where influential governors and senators might face re-election.
President Eisenhower warned the US about this creation of a, 'Military-Industrial-Congessional-Complex' which would enrich individuals and companies and incentivise profit over the commitment to national defence. For reference, look at how the cost of a basic 155mm shell has quadrupled since 2022; this most basic of necessities for a conventional war in Europe since time immemorial ought to have been available in the millions, immediately, but 30 years after the Cold War ended these hadn't been a priority compared to the latest bleeding-edge, ultra-expensive weapons programmes with inevitable, probably deliberate, massive cost overruns and which you'd never consider donating to a proxy for fear of it ending up being picked apart by enemy engineers should it be captured intact.
It is axiomatic that militaries almost inevitably prepare for the last war they fought, in the case of the US, the UK, etc, those are either counterinsurgencies, in the French case for protecting their Uranium supplies in Africa...in Germany's case, well, that's a whole story in itself and between losing their cheap Russian gas supplies and their foolish 'green' policies which somehow involved switching off their nuclear power stations (???), they're not building much of anything at the moment... Fundamentally different approaches, with fundamentally different results.
Willy always with smile when talking about Russian loses, when Ukranians not doing well , serious concerning face.
He is biased...
Still worth a listen, people just need to keep that in mind while watching
We love you Willy. You're a good egg.
Happy to see you are strong and optimistic. Keep going
"Ukraine has limited air defence."
Nope, their UnPatriots are too busy shooting down their F16s. LMAO.
F16, F15, F14, F13, F12, F11, F10, F9, F8, F7, F6, F5, F4, F3, F2, F1...now the F0
Glad to see ol boy in a better mood
Thank you for everything you do willy. Sending love.❤
We love ya mate we're worried about you
Russia's currently having an economic miracle due to greatly increasing the wages of the working poor. It's even acknowledged by our propagandists but they call it "overheating," which just means inflation caused by poor people having more money. (The inflation is greatly offset by the increase in wages, anyway.) I wish we had some of that "overheating."
Its funny how the sanctions prove that globalisation is actually very bad for countries economically.
Hey Willy. Good to see you lil bro. Sending you good vibes.
As for the study, there is a nuance here. I read that the Russians sent an Iskander to the crash site.
You are very special ❤️ you my Brother from California
Great video as always, mate. Take care. ❤
Thanks willy, keep up the good work
If you believe some reports after the s-70 crashed a talk was had about using a iskandar on it and they supposedly hit the crash site with the missile and people looking at it
Thanks for the update
Keep up the good work willy.
Id love to see you on the SRS podcast
You are consistently the best commentator out there. Good job sir.
Украинцы жалуются, что они теряют все города по одному сценарию. Они выставляют в центре опытные бригады обороны, а на флангах неопытные. Русские уничтожают фланги и обходят город с двух сторон. Так Украина потеряла уже 11 городов, включая Угледар, и они ничего не меняют в этом, из-за нехватки рабочей силы
Follow the light, Willy🌅
Is there anything that Ukraine can realistically do to stop the Ruzzian advances? I can't think of any.
@@colincampbell4261 what do you think happened in the past 2.5 years?
Peace talks leading to peace deal.
Militarily no
Surrender seems to be their best option for Ukraine. I doubt Russia wants all of Ukraine. Ukraine will be a slave to USA forever now with the US economic control model in full force.
They need to mobilize everyone under 25 and at the same time need a trillion or two worth of equipment from the west sent over at the same time. Only then could they actually possibly "win"
We love you, Mate. ❤️
I've read a lot about the Eastern Front, and there is a real misconception about manuever warfare, especially the idea that WW2 was about maneuver while WW1 was about attrition. Consider for example the best period of the Eastern Front for Germany: the initial year of the Barbarossa invasion. Well, they were losing on average about 30,000 men a month (KIA+WIA etc). So the fact is, even against unprepared Soviet defenses without proper AT weapons, the Germans were taking what is now considered by the West to be unacceptable losses, and they were doing this at the height of the success of maneuver warfare. And later in the war--as exemplified by Kursk--there were plenty of enormous defensive lines. The Soviets only found out that a German salient near Moscow was a trench system after the Germans had evacuated under fire: they didn't seem to have an understanding that the Germans had dug in, and artillery fire was not as effective as they imagined when they were conducting attacks on the salient. That is, even the Soviets and the Nazis thought that a new era of warfare had begun. But it wasn't true. It's just combined arms--tanks, just like planes, do not win wars on their own. And, of course, neither do bodies: the Soviets and Nazis alike pushed through thick defensive lines by massing artillery fires, air support, armour, and troops: yes they took heavy casualties, but they advanced. All this talk about "meat waves" is ridiculous--usually just squad-level recon that are obliterated. Real massed attacks are designed to succeed, mainly because of the weight of artillery fire in such a small area. But the reality of defensive works is that you are going to take casualties, even when you are taking ground and succeeding.
god bless you willy
Take care just saying to you man
But you are looking great man
.
Interesting I was just watching the military summary channel and he said the drone was electronically taken over by jamming,so they decided to shoot it down.
Best choice under the circumstances ⚔️
@@geoffroberts1608 Jamming does not mean highjacking of a drone.
Military summary has no special inside information source. He was just assuming. "I think" Thats what he said. And honestly he is mostly wrong when he tries to speculate either on the future or little known incidents.
that's what i believe as well
3:09 that is really cool footage
Wishing you the best Willy, thanks for your insights as always
Evening Willy.
Alot of modern western equipment was not reaching the frontline troops in the east.
Keep up the good work mate
On Lend Lease, the US also revieved items on the credit side of lend lease during the war
Not to the same value, but also not an insignificant value either
What probably happened was Ukraine/NATO forces took control of the drone and the Russians shot it down so they didnt capture it intact. Crazy stuff.
One oopsie in Ukraine - a Territorial brigade commander Col.Grib had allegedly killed himself after his brigade fled uncontrollably from positions in Vuhledar. But rumor has it he was killed by his own 'comrades' while stopping them to flee. Same happened to the S-70 "Okhotnik" jet drone on mission over Ukraine after Russian fighter jet Su-57 had lost control over it and S-70 was shot down to prevent it to fall into the enemy's hands. Shit happens and the best equipment sometimes fails.
Good on you mate!
Best wishes Willy ❤
And side comment is the Air Force has said a long time ago pilots will not be required moving forward.
We love you willy!
Wondering if the drone was electronically hacked or if generally lost control of it. Also, they could have been flying so high that with *some* stealthyness only most advanced AD systems (that are limited) could have handled the job.
About the twin engine aircraft that handle greater loads, it is a great point. I think Israel placed an exclamation point on that when they attacked that special target in Beirut, Lebanon recently.
Since Iran has managed to land a US drone some years back, you'd think the CIA would be all over doing the same to the S70 as soon as it appeared on the battlefield
the S-70 othotnik still on prototype phases. and its using SU-35 engine.
also for some reason it gone rogue. thats why being shotdown.
so it was good data for russian.
Wouldn't most software/electronics be destroyed by the fire/crash? Perhaps all that can be ascertained from the wreckage is the different composites being used.
It all depends on the damage to system storage. All countries use similar electronics that perform similar tasks. Most difference comes from what the software does with it. And that's in the storage memory. Highpy encrypted though, but I am certain any military can gain access to a cluster of super computers to break the encryption in a couple of years if deemed worth it.
@tomislavpuklin1676 But would the impact and subsequent fire destroy the information? I guess like you said it depends but I'm sure getting shot down, falling tens of thousands of feet, and being on fire would help save any data
@@tomislavpuklin1676There are fail-safes for such cases. All of the storage gets fried.
@@Nero-Caesar heat destroys all programmable data storage mediums
@@N4CR that's what I thought
Another great video!
I always make sure I zero my scales when I’m dealing
I just asked Chat GPT what the population of Great Britain was in 1914, what the cohort of males 18-26 would have been, and how many British soldiers died in the war. The answers were about 42 million, 2 million and over 740 thousand, respectively. The last number does not count soldiers from the overseas British empire. Just a thought, but WWI is often mentioned on this site as an example in the context of “attritional war.” I note the numbers now because of today’s economics discussion revolving around mobilization. A clever economist can put a market value on anything, including sunshine. I wonder a bit about how the same economists would appraise national resolve, factional resolve, regime intentions mothers’ grief, and political guile. Ukraine, at the outset of the current war anyhow, had about the same population as Britain did in 1914. The cohort of men ages 18-26 would be similar as well. The British nation expended more than 10 % of that cohort (roughly figuring for 17-year-olds coming of mobilization age during each of five years). Ugly thought, I know, and I am not saying it was a good thing or worth it. It is just that Ukraine seems to have exempted that cohort. Meanwhile, it seems that the Z regime would be willing to expend that same cohort, so long as it belonged to other countries. So, I’m not buying the economics calculations if they do not calculate-in national willingness to sacrifice. I’m no expert on that part of the world, but my suspicion is that the Russian nation, with five times the human and material resources, has greater national resolve to not be dominated by the Ukrainians or their sponsors in this instance.
You need to check the demographics of Ukraine pre war. The cohort of young men is literally half of what what you assume. I'm not entirely sure the exact reasons for this but I suspect the collapse of the soviet union had a massive impact on birth rates which never really recovered
@@Welsh_Veteran_420_Z Accepted. Even at half, the point stands, no?
@GeoffDemarest @GeoffDemarest Yes, the point stands, I don't disagree with you. Sorry for the lack of clarification. I'm just saying the situation for Ukraine is even worse in comparison to Britain because the cohort of 18-26 year old men in pre war Ukraine was already half of what would be assumed that comparison
Then, when you consider the millions of men who have left the country and the astronomical casualty rates, I suspect that Ukraine has perhaps more reason than we realise from the outside to protect the most important cohort for the future of its country
Do you think it's possible if Ukraine loses the war before mass conscription of the young, it could be a better long term outcome than "winning" at the cost of those men?
@@Welsh_Veteran_420_Z What I think is mushy at best, but your question is of the right kind. To me, the conditions for Ukrainians to sue for peace get worse by the day. I think 'victory' for Ukrainians could mean to be conceded a secure Ukraine that includes Odessa. The next best result would be to be left with a Ukraine at all. I don't see it in any way unwise or unethical to spare the cohort about which we are talking. Simple cold math tells us that whatever the status of Ukraine as a national entity, it does not have the capacity to defeat the Russian nation militarily (including with outside help). Are some observers romantically inclined toward there being or having been a Kurd, Boer, Hmong, Cherokee, Palestinian, etc. nation-states, all with seats in some just global government? Sure. These are often the same people who claim how destructive nationalism is. Science often disappoints; Political Science always.
Bits of a D-20sn glide bomb was found in the drone's wreckage. If this wasn't it's first time in the sky then it would indicate that some of the normal than usual glide bomb hits are a result of stealth aircraft releasing them over Ukrainian territory.
William, human empathy works quite weĺl. we believe in the Lord justice. Trust it.😊
When you mentioned the drone fell into Ukrainian territory, and in the video we could see it was going down relatively straight, meaning both the drone and the Su57 were already over Ukrainian territory or very close to it, the first thing that popped into my head was the same as you - how are they not being shot at? Glad you talked about it as it is a very interesting thing to see either way. Also, I wish you all the best and good luck with your treatments.
Willy, how exactly "the guys with the suitcases" are going to examine the software from a burned to crisp board? :))) It will be luck if they manage to identify 10% of the chips used...
It probably didn't burn very much
@@skyguy11 Have you seen the footage from the ground???
Lockheed will laugh at this 1990s tech drone
@@everettburon9525
F35 is 1990s tech
@@everettburon9525 will they? This aircraft got through Ukraine's AD which is basically Western AD without being detected, something that should cause great concern.
4:33 Good analysis, I concur.
Top Man Willie
Like button - you were here when he originally talked about the S-70
The most instructive moment in the drone destruction is that it is happening over Ukrainian territory, but there is no Ukrainian air defense in sight. And no, this has no relations with the F-117 bomber that was shot down by old soviet S-125 Neva missile while bombing Serbia, S-70 Ohotnik drone is shot down by its own side despite Willy's trying, somehow, to associate both events.The only similarity is that both aircraft are stealth and that they were shot down by missiles produced on the territory of Russia.
For the Russian military mobilization personally, I think it could certainly be both positive and negative for pro-Ukraine-NATO, who would be happy about this as a sign that Russia is short of fighting men and some would even openly say they would kill them all. But for Ukraine, which also lacks manpower, it would be difficult to cope if Russia brings in more troops. No matter how many weapons Ukraine has, they are useless if there is no one to use them. And Ukraine has to work harder and if the new Russian soldiers are well trained and with a good rotation of troops while Ukraine cannot do so freely in this time. For Russia, it may be aimed at occupying eastern Ukraine before the end of this year, which I think will be early next year if the situation continues like this. No matter what the outcome in this year, the war will continue because no one will give up, and more people will die and theif families will grieve and theif friends will grieve and the world will never be the same because make no mistake war is hell.
The mobilization could mean that Russia is gearing up to annex more territory than it currently claims (e.g. parts of Sumy), or it believes that it can safely increase the number total troops without causing major escalation to try and move the war along faster.
11:30 “stealth was a 90’s thing…”. Was that the SaaB engineer? No surprise he’ll dis it since they don’t have stealth
Every radar transmit/receiver can detect stealth, but the signal is below the clutter rejection threshold of the backend signal processor. Essentially, the signal processor doesn't have the computational power to say that a bird traveling at 400 mph is not a damn bird; so the radar ignores the signal return. As computer processing power improves, the clutter rejection threshold will lower, and the detection range against stealth aircraft will increase. Plus, as it relates to ground based systems, the detection range is also based on the size and power of the radar aperture.
Australia has a similar Drone Wingman in operation !
It seems to me that the USA is the main winner in this war. China is learning alot too.
In what way is the US winning? They may be learning a lot, but they are showing that US support and weapons are meaningless
America just burned money and stockpiles... while having limited capacity to rebuild stockpiles.
China is the big winner. Ukraine the biggest loser and Germany also a big loser. USA loosing lots of credibility with Americans giving billions to Ukraine but pennies to help victims of the hurricane.
@shueyk2320 Except for 155mm shells, this is all surplus equipment. Don't even begin to think that the US military is the least bit impacted by this.
🇷🇺☦️👌
Willy, when are we going into Ukraine analysis? Like loses etc? It's always Russian, are Ukraine losing men or?
Lend lease debt? The Yanks did the same to Britain, Britain paid the final payment of $83.3 million (£42.5 million) of it's lend lease debt on December 29, 2006....