The Rise (And Fall) of the PSA 10/10 Auto 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr Rookie Card
Вставка
- Опубліковано 9 чер 2024
- Chapters
00:00 - 01:14: Introduction
01:15 - 02:08: Ken Griffey Jr. Signing History
02:09 - 05:46: Sales History
05:47 - 13:23: Submissions
13:24 - 16:05: Analysis
Research
Google Sheets Spreadsheet of 44 of the first 46 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. PSA 10/DNA 10 cards: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
Mill Creek Sports Website, all Ken Griffey Jr. Auto Cards: www.millcreeksports.com/cards...
4 Sharp Corners Website, all Ken Griffey Jr. Cards:
4sharpcorners.com/search/sear...
PSA Pop Report for 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. DNA Auto cards (must click PSA/DNA Certified Tab):
www.psacard.com/pop/baseball-...
PSA Certification Verification Page: www.psacard.com/cert
Dec. 2017 article saying Griffey signed with Tri-Star:
blowoutbuzz.wordpress.com/201...
March 2018 Sports Collector’s Digest article saying Griffey no longer signs:
sportscollectorsdigest.com/au...
2018 promo from Powers Sports Memorabilia saying this was the first time Griffey did mail order signings:
powerssportsmemorabilia.com/b...
2018 private mail in signing: / 1714475231991137
Tristar Private Signings for Ken Griffey Jr.: www.tristarproductions.com/Gr...
PWCC Sales Archive of 1989 Upper Deck Ken Griffey Jr. PSA 10 auto card:
sales-history.pwccmarketplace...
January 2021 Collectors Universe Discussion Forum on first big sale, $55,000 with PWCC: forums.collectors.com/discuss...
Detailed Explanation of the 9:10 Ratio for PSA Graded Sports Cards:
• PSA's Pop Control of t... - Спорт
This comment isn't meant to be offensive because I'm sure you spent a lot of time doing research, but a video like this makes me long for the days when you could just go to the corner store and buy a pack of cards for less than a dollar and have fun opening the packs.
Yeah, tell me about it. This side of the Hobby is only part of my interest. I still get a lot of enjoyment working on my vintage binder sets.
Upper deck we’re about 3.50 if I remember correctly . Just enough for my mom not to buy them for me …. That being said …… I feel very sorry for todays kids wanting to buy overpriced shit AGAIN
As a collector who started in the late 80's into the early 90's. I'm with you, the hobby has gotten REALLY overly complicated. It's a blessing and a curse, the hobby growth is good but it also brings in a lot of the dark parts of any market where money can be made.
There's still nothing like going into the card shop and hanging out breaking some boxes with friends. I try to to not get all wrapped up in the constant cycle of industry/hobby drama and also always stay on alert for scammers/theifs.
I'm with you, fellow old fart!!
You remember when the world stood on its head, the day that the 1986 Jose Canseco hit the $100 mark lol.
Now, there's a Red Parallel, a Red with polka dot Parallel, a Red Polka Dot Refractor Parallel, Red Polka Dot Refractor /250, Red Polka Dot Refractor/150, and on, and on, and on.
@@JunkYardCardGuy yeah, 100% agree. The parallels are ridiculous especially because Panini doesn't label them (with the exception of Revolution off the top of my head) which just makes parallels relatively pointless IMO unless they're numbered. People advertise all sorts of things as parallels when they're not on Ebay. I'm not sure if they're being purposefully deceitful or they simply can't tell the difference. If you look at Illusions basketball for instance, some of their parallels (emerald) can be VERY difficult to identify and they don't even put "Prizm" on the back to tell you if it's a parallel at all. This ultimately results in it being your word against someone else's whether or not something is a "parallel" version.
Congrats on 25K views ! Big viewing milestone for your channel.
GREAT JOB tracking down submission 'groups' that 1) can show the how the 9:10 ratio changes radically over a short period of time; 2) that0 this change is tied directly to big dealer lot submissions.
This hobby (that I am and have been a part of since I was a kid, when "The Kid" was a rookie) has always been suspect (dirty in some cases.
A prima facie explanation is that PSA does a lot of business with certain dealers and you don't want to tick-off your big money clients. The dealers might now be using the De Beers' model for diamond selling. Diamonds (natural not man made) are a lot more common than people think. De Beers long ago realized that artificial scarcity could be created just by holding back on the supply. Mill Creek and 4SC are smart to hold the cards off the market to raise the perception of scarcity and value. Certain cards tend to disappear into private collections and resurface only rarely. So even if pop. #'s go up they can release the card selectively and retain the appearance of scarcity.
One final, anecdotal observation: When I first sent in cards, I did so on my own. Both to PSA and BGS. My GM to MT or NM ratio was about 1:5 (I do carefully vet my cards). SInce 2013 ALL my submissions have been through a dealer who routinely submits large lots to PSA (and formerly BGS). They are also a Topps certified auto representative (the inside info on how that works is another story altogether). Since I started submitting with them I have received ONLY BGS 9.5's, PSA 10's, and even a very nice BGS 10 (gold label). Admittedly someone I know there does look over my cards before I submit them (so the submission is even more self-selective...). However, I once had a provisionally graded BGS 9 (mint) /10 auto Mike Trout. For the life of me I could see nothing off with the centering, corners that were spear tips/perfect 90's , and edges that could cut you. I took it out of the provisional sleeve, submitted it as 'raw' through this particular dealer (gave the surface a good once over) and received a BGS true Gem Mint with a 10 sub (and 10 auto). Taking a (then) $150 card and bumping it up to a $300-$400 card (all obviously pre-bubble).
Except for a reslab I will never again submit cards as the average joe. I will only send them in as part of the larger lots that this dealer sends in.
ONE FINAL NOTE: I am a huge Braves fan with a lot of Hank Aaron auto stuff. Aaron signed A LOT, but his stuff has now gone off the charts (relatively speaking) since his death. Rule of thumb: IF a guy is still alive he can and probably will sign. The pop. will rise. The money is too damn good for it not to be tempting to most players/ex-players. So a low population today might be a large one a few years down the road. The 'rumors' that someone's auto is hard to get are generally just that...rumors (even players under exclusive contract are only under that contract for X number of years).
Thanks for that comment Jason...great insights and experience you shared.
I believe there is a lot to the relationship PSA has with these Tier 1 dealers, who helped keep PSA in business in the lean years and have been submitting thousands of cards a year for decades. From what I have learned from a source, there were/are special grading programs available to them that the general public can't use.
I'm curious how you would vet a group submitter to tell their success with grades from PSA. Sounds like you had a more personal connection.
Thanks for your thoughtful comment!
@@vintagecardcurator Sorry for the way too long reply.
You bring up a very good question. How do you determine whether a large lot submitter is going to perhaps get a more favorable 'spot' from PSA (or BGS)? I think I got lucky. I really stumbled into this dealer because they were convenient and someone I knew well already had an established relationship with them (mainly by dropping a lot of $ in their store..something I can't do). Maybe there are two things that you can observe that might be helpful (and some dumb luck) in indicating whether a dealer has disproportionate success with grading:
Observable:
1) Key in on the frequency of submissions. My guy went from submitting lots about once a month ten years ago (sometimes a card would be in his store a couple weeks before it went out) to ( prior to and now since the reopening) submissions every week or two. He is pulling in business from the surrounding area. The lots need to be a certain size (not sure how big) before they get submitted. They have been in business now a while...and although they deal in other things...a hobby shop that has been in business a while, and makes frequent submissions is I think an indicator of increased grading success.
2) I think the dealer has to give somewhat of a damn about the cards they send in. If they just take a card from you blindly, then I'm really not sure (unless it is a MEGA submitter) how well the cards would do. They don't need to get out a jeweler's loupe to look at your card, but at least they should be willing to give the card a turn or two into the light to check out the surface for things like micro-scratches ....maybe spot a 'bubble' corner...and advise you that a card probably won't get a GM or is borderline. Also, if they submit a lot they know right away that certain sets tend to grade well. In short, someone who LOOKS at your cards (even if only briefly), seems to know their grader, and knows their sets is a better bet. Also, if they POLITELY reject/suggest you not bother getting 'cheap' cards graded (something that even as a GM won't be worth much), then you know most of the stuff they are sending in is going to rake in some insurance $'s (since submitting is cheap I think this is a way for them to make money...not sure), and they know they probably shouldn't pester PSA with a bunch of '89 UD Gregg Jefferies cards (sorry Gregg). So, in short, a somewhat selective dealer in a few senses.
Here is the DUMB LUCK, but perhaps the most intriguing part, of vetting a dealer:
1) Become friends with the manager/owner. Unfortunately, unless you went to high school with them or saved their life once that PROBABLY means spending big $ with them....and hanging out at the store. It is a good thing is to know someone who is friends with the manager/owner. If you know a guy who can sit behind the counter (who doesn't work there) and chat with the manager/owner, that is your guy. Stop by the store with them during off-hours and you will get to hear some interesting things just by hanging around (no one talks about the dirty side of things on trade nights or when people are busting open high priced boxes...that's when everything gets hyped-up...yeah, sure....that Rod Carew 1/1 will make you a millionaire...note: I like Rod Carew). But if there aren't many people around, that's when you get to hear the interesting stuff.
You mentioned special programs for dealers. Straight from the horse's mouth when I was present: One of the reasons they went away from BGS to PSA (BGS is the company they primarily submitted to through '15 or '16, I think) was because BGS was no longer giving them "dealer pricing". The manager was pretty pissed at BGS (whatever was going on with BGS clearly annoyed him). I DIDN'T ask anything, but that was the first time I submitted cards to PSA with them (because he wouldn't submit to BGS).
If you get some kind of word that the dealer has some kind of special price with a company, I think that is also an indicator that they do enough business with the company to get that favorable 'spot'. But I'm not sure that dealers make that general knowledge. I don't think they do, so maybe chat up that guy who doesn't work there but is always hanging around....you might get lucky.
Because I think you are right...I think there are special programs that dealers can get involved in.
Excellent info!
Great stuff. Awesome video as usual.
Awesome information 🤤
The sad thing is that the 89 UD #1 Ken Griffey Jr card is the most common of any of the cards printed. There have been reports of the Upper Deck employees printing entire sheets and cutting them, taking them to a card shop for 20 bucks a pop, and going out drinking with the money. And they did this often.
Link to this story? It seems like the card shop would have gotten wind of this.
@@TheKopsfanclub Check out the book Card Sharks by Pete Williams.
Also gave each board member like 10,000 griffey's as a bonus
From same book
Printing press ran late into the night
Great video thank you 🙏
This is actually a good example of how inflation works.
Eye opening. Thanks!
Fantastic video as always Keith! It has been shown time and again that PSA controls pop reports and plays favorites with its top submitters. Maybe, thanks to videos like yours, collectors will become more aware of these practices. I’m hopeful that at some point PSA can be pressured into grading based on the merits of the individual card only and not the individual that submitted it or the current pop report.
Well done as always!
Thank you so much Jim! I don't know, every video I make and PSA seems to get bigger and bigger. lol
Keep on feeding the pig !
@@vintagecardcurator man I watch a lot of your video because you have a huge following but you have always Skued the narrative to be sinister and negative instead of truly understanding what’s going on. I’d love to know how much you grade and of you know the differences between psa, bgs and sgc and how they grade.
There is always going to be some shady shit in everything in life but some of these just miss the mark
I have so many junk era rookies.. So many Randy Johnson, Barry Bonds, Bo Jackson, Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire ect ect ect. I am making a killing with them. I will post a video on my channel showing what I have. I have 72 KG JR 1989 UD, over 100 fleer 89 and donruss 89 and only a few topps 1990. Of the 72 I have pulled 15 that would grade a 10. The rest would either be an OC 9 or 9. I have all the 10s (what I think are 10s) out to be graded. If that price spike happens again I will sell.
I am selling all of my cards. If anyone is interested they are about $2,000,000 to $3,000,000 worth of cards from 1985 to 1991 mostly baseball and football and some basketball. Approx 20 of those 800 card boxes filled with the cards I think would rate a 10 and organized. I also have Pokemon. about 500 cards that I would rate a 10 including 20 or so XY Evo Charizard Holos that go for 2k each. It's going to take me YEARS to get them all graded and sold. It's turned into a job and I don't like it much. But if someone is interested in taking 2-3million worth in cards and give me 500k for them all I would do it. I have about 200 with PSA now, and send about 30-50 a month to PSA so I have a monthly streaming salary coming back to me.
Let me know. 500k is a steal for the cards that I have. I have even already pre-graded and organized them all. Before I send them to PSA again I grade them a second time to make sure I didn't miss anything. I usually pull about 10% as ones I don't think will get a 10 because of finding something later, but I do have 20 boxes of 800 cards each about to send to grade.. That's 16,000 cards people. If you are interested I can make a video showing all the cards/
@@gertpacu3926 I’ll take 3 of everything you have
This video has a very similar feel to the movie the big short. Great analysis
Thank you so much!
I have lived near Mill Creek Sports most of my life and did not know it existed
I like watching you and Raymazing Rips when it comes to cards. 👍 good job!
I’ve personally never submitted cards to be graded. And after watching some of your videos, don’t believe I ever will. I agree that the grades favor the big boy dealers.
This was eye-opening! Keep up the great work, brother! 👍👍
Thank you my friend!
Not surprised this type of favoritism happens with ancient coins, European & American coins with 3rd party grading. Private collectors often get lackluster grades with more qualifiers lowering the overall desirability and value of a piece. This opens up the opportunity for more recognized/established buyers purchasing under graded examples to be then resubmitted under their accounts receiving higher grades and no qualifiers.
Absolutely spot-on
Interesting that the two highest sales were by PWCC, and shortly after PWCC was removed from eBay.
Yeah, probably not coincidence either!
Amazing content as always, I appreciate the work that went into this vid.
Thanks Colin! This one took a while (like a lot of my vids), ha ha
The Holy grail for Ken Griffey Jr upper deck RC #A1 PSA 10 POP1 and PSA 9 POP 2 . I collect baseball cards for the last 50th years if you have one graded know the next Micky mantle is Griffey Jr #A1 Card
Thanks, haven’t heard of the #A1
That was a lot of info wow...I think I'll lay down now
They (same dealer/vendors) are doing the same with the '90 Topps Frank Thomas, though for much less profit.
Check out 4SC for the players that have hundreds of dual autos like this for more than baseball. Every Griffey RC, Canseco, Bo, Maddux, Randy Johnson and many more. The MO was probably the same as it was for this 89 UD 10/10 Griffey.
Do they price fix? absolutely. 4SC, Probstein and PWCC have the influence and money to make certain cards skyrocket in price on Ebay. I think if you look into how many PSA 10s 4SC gets it would make for a very interesting video.
Home run video. Thank you for all the work you put into this. 🤙🏻🤙🏻
Another classic! You unearth or bring up a number of relevant topics that collectors should consider. One I’d like to reinforce is the idea of “those ahead of the curve will receive more favorable grading.” Nolan at EliteCo discusses the importance of this, one way I apply this to my collecting, is to grade *potential* HOF candidates before they get there, obviously easier said then done! The other sad truth is that businesses such a 4Sharp will always be focused on making more money, so taking advantage of these situations is a GOAL for them. Love your work!
Thanks for that insightful comment. Yes, Nolan understands how grading works better than most anyone. I would like to see this idea tested with data, but it seems like the earliest submitters get the best grades...that population control comes in after high value is established.
Great Job!! Love your videos. Please keep up the Great Work!!
Incredible work man! Instead of just telling people about everything PSA has done, I'm just going to send them to your channel.
Thank you my friend!
Likely buying 9s & 10s, cracking them, getting them signed and then resub.
Congrats on 5000 views in less than 3 days. Everyone please like this video and recommend it to your friends. This kind of research and transparency of what goes on behind the scenes of this hobby needs to be explored and talked about. Great job as always Keith!
Really enjoy your content. Thanks for the great work.
Thanks for the comment Winston!
The Upper Deck Co. held back on releasing thousands of 89 Ken Griffey rookie cards .They were given to executive employees (family members etc.)and told to wait a specific amount of time(5 yrs.) to release them into the market.
I read about that in the book, "House of Cards" about Upper Deck.
Dmn, so now all those Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi autos that have appeared in the last 4 months ACROSS ALL auction houses are suspect now - they have just exploded in presence
Yes, I would be extremely cautious of any auto cards from living players. Check the pop report first. These cards are no longer “rare.”
Yes, I would be extremely cautious of any auto cards from living players. Check the pop report first. These cards are no longer “rare.”
Amazing video and cited research. Thank you for this amazing content. So often in this hobby/business I see comment after comment that states opinion as fact. Thank you for bucking the trend!
Great video, and information. But overall If you look at that first graph that you show it just looks like all the other cards in the boom from Jordan's rookie etc etc etc.
It's all about entry point if you bought this card early you're fine, and maybe now's a good time to buy. Pressed by your research and production value nice video
Ken signed a ball for me in 1987 and it's sitting right next to me right now. He was a great kid in Bellingham and a legend in the PNW.
That's awesome! That has a lot more value to me than 1 of 1000 autos he did at a company office.
Which proves a theory I have about psa. They went from grading correctly to controlling the market giving their buddies the upper hand.
iam never grading my cards but this is really interesting
You are a total legend! Beyond informative!
Thanks Tom!
Great analysis as usual! Thoughts… 1) pop control is real 2) PSA has a unique position in this industry and 100% uses it to their advantage and that of their partners 3) the industry is dirty as hell. If you’re in this to make a buck good luck, but you’ll likely be broke soon or on to the next snake oil presentation 4) if you do this as a hobbyist be damn careful and don’t lose perspective. Be CAREFUL. Remember we’re middle aged men buying pieces of cardboard. Enjoy, but don’t lose sight of things that really matter.
Thanks for that. It was not lost on me that it's not just collectors but the small and medium sized dealers who are disadvantaged in this situation. How can they compete against 4SC or MC?
@@vintagecardcurator you’re 100% correct. The small and mid sized dealers trying to do it right can’t compete. The decks are stacked against them.
What happened to the days where you would collect cards just to collect them, yeah I get it about the value of the card but I would just look at my Beckett just to say my card is worth this much and still keep my cards .
I bought a case of wax boxes 5 years ago for a dirt bike as a trade. Me and my brother opened all the packs and got roughly 12 Jr rookies 18 r Johnson rookies and 8 smoltz rookies. I feel about 1/3 of the cards would grade a 10. Sending in about 50 cards to grade would have cost me about 2000$ I sold it to a dealer ungraded for 8k and a R Henderson PSA 9. He sent me a email saying he had 8 PSA 10s and gave me 1000$ cash as we agreed if so. But he ended making quite a bit of all those cards.
I think you made the right decision. Chances are that dealer had been odds of getting those back as 10's. Did you ever see the video of the guy that sent PSA about 50 seemingly mint Griffey rookies? I think he got 1-2 back as 10's. It felt like the average collector doesn't have a good chance of getting 10's versus a dealer.
Thank you for this… I knew something was going on as I’ve been wanting this card for my personal collection. Now I think I’ll keep waiting ha ha ha
I grabbed a PSA8 for $80. Always wanted the card and with grading being $25-30. $80 was pretty good. Seems the 10/10’s are the issue.
I own a Beckett graded 10 UD Griffey i bought off late night TV in the 90s. GLAD i kept it.
Been out of the loop of baseball cards for nearly 35 years now. Getting back into it now... I want to say that somebody told me that this card is still printed to this date? Is this true??? Also, somebody told me that because of the popularity of the card as well as the issues associated with printing it b/c of it's placement in the printing process on the 10 x 10 card sheet that in 1990 they mass produced the card again but that the card stock they used in 1990 was a thinner card stock. Upper Deck sold the cards out and as a result never got caught or saw any legal action because of it. The only way you could tell the difference was to weigh a printed 1990 to a printed 1989. How you would tell the difference aside of the weight is unclear. Does any of this sound/ring true? I'm simply repeating what I have heard/read since coming back to collecting the card. I also want to say that the printing issue for this specific card was so bad that at the time Upper Deck had a policy that you could send the card in, if the card you got was damaged/bent or if it was printed at an angle etc and they would replace it for you with a correct card?
Fabulous video as always!
Thank you!
Great video. Very informative. I don't collect anymore but have a small 150-200 autographed BB cards from spring training in the early 1970s. The cards are not mint but hold a special value to me as I got them signed myself. This was a time before the market really took off. My favorite ones are Bobby Murcer, Frank Howard, Nolan Ryan to name a few. I will probably go to my grave with them.
Love the video and info. I did my own extensive bit of research regarding gem rates on mostly modern “chromium” cards last year as the 9 to 10 ratio relates to a company named PC SportsCards. They are a large auction and consignment shop on the East Coast. Great people too. However, my conclusions always indicated that their PSA submissions on behalf of customers always had an insanely high gem rate compared to individual submitters.
I am not suggesting anything nefarious. I am simply stating the fact that all of my data indicates they get a lower ratio of 9s to 10s from PSA.
I do not know enough about how cards are handled by PSA upon receipt by the large submitters to make any further assumptions. As far as I can tell, someone at PSA just likes to reward this particular vendor somehow. Who knows.
I think you are right on Dan. I ultimately attribute this to relationships. Like in my business, if you know someone for a long time and they have supported you, you take care of them. Many of these companies have long-term relationships with PSA that go back decades, and they supported the company in those early lean years. They are high volume submitters and I'm sure PSA understands their value to their business. It's naïve to think otherwise.
Amazing stuff
Thanks!
Great video. A great reminder to never chase….if the situation with Tatis wasn’t recent enough!!!! Thanks!
Thanks! There's many reminders of this every year...never chase!
Thank you for the great info
Thanks for the comment...very much appreciated.
Use to if a card is altered, written on (even auto’s) without the authentication stamp or wording on that card it weren’t worth as much. Lot’s of pump and dump and shill bidding. I personally wouldn’t buy a autograph card without authentication of that card, there are so much forgery.
Another reason why "Low pop" is just a trap. As if nobody is going to ever submit more. It's crazy.
Thats why I only invest in serialized cards 50 or less pop count psa 10s.Especially now that panini about to loose its license and the presses are on fire lol.
PSA's integrity issues makes me think their grades/value won't hold water. All it's gonna take is a Netflix series about their shady tactics to have it all come crumbling down
Great video as usual, I always love your knowledge and insight. This data that is provided publicly can really show you what’s going on when you break it down. Most people don’t care to even look at POP reports, but it also shows how crooked this industry is. I still love baseball cards though, oh well. Thanks again for a great video
Thank you Paul!
Master class as always Keith.
Never Get Cheated!
Thanks so much! I appreciate your support of the channel for so long.
As always, interesting and compelling stuff! I'm not sure that I agree with a few of your conclusions though... In essence here, two big players in the hobby put two and two together(Griffey 10/10s are even rarer than 10s) and the recent hobby price spike(peak early Spring '21) explains most of the rest... As to why the big guys get more of the tens: they probably have dozens and dozens of these Griffey's, more experienced grading eyes and more $$ to get cards graded... Good to have you back!
I been buying 5+ non graded of these every year for the last 20 years. Except for the last few years.
20K views in less than 2 weeks! 25K here we come! Also let's get Keith over 5000 subs!
Massive amounts of info!! WOWW!!!
I will give you a sub for this. What great work. Seems to be manipulation of the market by a certain group of people.
Thanks; yes, I agree. There is a lot of manipulation and insider dealing. It's an unregulated market; I get it.
Why do we keep sending cards to PSA. Or any company that has ties to the business
Thanks for digging deep into this. I appreciate your hard work. This is nothing short of a great video. This format in extremely enjoyable. By the way, Psa has been scumbags for many years. What's done in the dark will always come to light. I'd like to see something on Sgc. They seem on the up and up. Beckett is the same as Psa in my humble opinion. There's just to much greed.
That's why after market autos are a sucker's game.
I had that card and I got it autographed by Ken Griffey Jr at a mall (He was doing a signing with his dad at the time). I worked for a card shop a few years later as a teenager and had it in a case at the shop. I went to college, came back in the Summer and the guy that owned the shop had been killed in a car accident. I have no idea where the card went but I am 100% going to assume it's that gem mnt 10.
Great video, perfect timing for me. Coincidentally sent four of these to Mill Creek a few months ago to have KGJ sign, and they are now currently at PSA.
Oh man, that's interesting Jared. How are you feeling now about the grading process?
@@vintagecardcurator Jumped back into the hobby a few months ago. I did research the chance of a 10 was only 5% so I sent them in to just grade the autos. 20 year hold for me to pass down to kids/grandkids so not worried about it really.
Phenomenal work!The amount of time you spent on this is intriguing to me.Without a doubt the most intelligent and insightful work on UA-cam!
Thanks Phillip! This was a four month project, though I put it down for a while.
This was a tour de force of research and explanation, and I greatly appreciate your work. Today's "investors" better get a grip on total supply, not just what PSA has graded so far. Pop report doesn't equal print run, and sudden spikes in graded supply can happen any time if a card is not serial-numbered and the hobby doesn't have a firm grasp on how many raw copies exist.
Thanks a lot Paul. I hope this is a wake up call for collectors/investors. I see Probstein has one of these cards up for auction, ending tonight, and it’s already over $7400. SMH
Love your videos
Thanks a lot Jayson; I appreciate your 3 year subscription!
Wow. I am blown away. Autographs are risky as long as the player is living, I suppose. This is a fine example of insider trading in the hobby.
Illuminating as always. Interesting play here by the "Grader-Big Dealer Industrial Complex." Often these bedfellows ensure that big time cards with potentially explosive value have artificially suppressed 10 pops as you have shown in your other fine videos. Here the 9 to 10 ratio of the signed and un-signed Griffeys looks to be roughly 7:1 in both cases so consistent at least. There is no way PSA and the dealers were not conscious of the fact that going from 1 to 2 of these cards to dozens in that span would constitute flooding the market. Maybe the play was to just outrun the boulder and get as many 5-figure sales as possible before the door closed.
This is why I have almost completely stopped submitting. When I do submit its to CSG because I feel they have been very fair in MOST of their grades. I do have some wild examples of WTF and it's almost always on my expensive cards. It makes me wonder if the graders purposely grade certain cards low and then hit ebay every night to buy the post cards, Crack and resub them somewhere else.
Thanks for the comment Phillip. I feel it's a crooked/rigged game in favor of the top customers. The Griffey card is an excellent case study for how the Hobby operates when it's in the shadows.
Vintage is 1980 and older. The 89UD Griffey is "junk era" because of mass production. I think the Fleer Glossy and Bowman Tiffany are his best RC's. But I digress. LOL
But man...you have to pity all those people who bought into the FOMO hype from late 2020 to spring 2021. I mean imagine seeing a low pop card you paid 55K for, end up as a $7K card with a pop 12x higher. 🤣🙈
**BTW - I've been telling people the same damn thing about the 84 Star Jordan. PSA just started grading them and people are paying a premium for "pop 1". When the reality is the pop count will explode in the next year. 💯
Kinda seems like thoughts I have had for many years about the cozy, symbiotic relationship between dealers, auction companies and PSA. Of course, the auction companies and dealers promote PSA as the "best" or should carry the highest premium - and in turn PSA makes sure to "take care" of their biggest $ supporters. Seems like much of the crypto ICO market - where whales controlled the market completely a few years back - or aka "insider trading" by the families of certain lifetime politicians. Great content and analysis btw - I, as a "data" and stats person professionally definitely appreciate the breakdowns, as well as the "raw" data! Kudos - and new sub here!
Bro. My expectations coming into this video were so low, with everything going on around the hobby and just how the hobby in general seems to be(especially lately) The hobby has so much laziness and mediocrity. Bro you smashed this topic! This video, everything in it and all the work and research you put into this; it's just really great, virtuosic research, lol.
Thanks James, I appreciate that. It's a very provocative topic and I understand some people think the conclusions are wrong or that the system operates fairly. I wanted to start a serious conversation about this, so this kind of feedback is appreciated.
I can't even get a PSA 9 upper deck and I use a 40 power Jeweler's loupe
Dude! Thank you for your dedication, time, and effort for this video/investigation. It needed to be done. I don't know what will come of it, but it's a major start. I had been keeping an eye on the sports card activity over the last two years more than I have in a long time. I did notice the signed Griffey population explosion, and its made me very disgruntled about a lot of things. Your video for some reason makes me feel better. Like it's the start of kicking down the corrupt doors in this industry. Thank you again. Well done! Someone get this man a Griffey 10/10 (iI wouldn't mind one too while we're at it.) Lol..
Who is Pro BS Tein?
Thanks for the comment. I have been working on these concepts for a couple of years now. Previous videos have started a conversation, but ultimately the Hobby moves on. I think people are aware of some of the issues raised in the video, but the solutions are not easy. This is largely an unregulated market. The FBI has been investigating PSA for over 2 years, but nothing came of it. There have been class action lawsuits that were dismissed. PSA's business only grows and the other established players in the Hobby (media, auction houses, other dealers, Registry members) say nothing.
I love your channel and all the DATA and FACTS that support these videos. You know what I want though? I want an X employee/grader or an insider to step forward and let us in on exactly how PSA fucks us all. Everyone I know since PSA has opened has a horror story about PSA. However on the inverse side I must hand it to SGC. Their current leadership and management is proving to be hands down on the level. Can you work on getting someone that worked for PSA to give us one of the hidden face fake voice interviews? I would absolutely love that! Thanks for all the handwork you do buddy. Never stop telling the truth.
Thanks for that. I'm sure PSA has employees sign some pretty strong non-disclosure agreements. From what I've seen, a number of the ex-graders take that specialized knowledge and go into business for themselves, trimming cards to the specs that PSA tolerates.
I started doing some research on SGC, but never published it. If you look up their founder/owner, Dave Forman, you'll see a lot of negative press and allegations that he trims cards and uses SGC to sell them. I won't deal with them.
I got back into the hobby a few years ago, was out since about 2008. Millcreek had been my primary LCS, so I went back to pick up a few Beckett price guides. They did not sell Becketts (maybe they do now) but said ebay sales were their guide. Seems suspicious, like they wanted to keep info about the hobby away from the public.
Nah, Beckett is just a terrible way to comp cards. eBay sold are live and up to date
They could have cracked open already graded Gem 10 cards for the sub
I don't believe they cracked them out. 1) the 10's were selling for $3,000 at the time those submissions went in. Too much risk in cracking them out, getting the auto and resubmitting. 2) it's doubtful any dealer had dozens of PSA 10 Griffey's sitting in inventory to crack out and 3) the card is one of the most mass produced ever...the dealers would have no problem finding other mint examples to send PSA.
I agree!
I'd love to see the back of those 10/10s and see how many of them have the holofoil diamond perfectly centered. I've been told that's what keeps a lot of 9s from being 10s.
You can go to the linked spreadsheet above and find every cert number. If you plug that number into the PSA cert verification page you will see pictures front and back of each card.
2020 was the height of the price boom lol
Interesting
These days it is very risky to have cards graded, especially by PSA. With several of the graded cards now being "altered" it is umlikely that the once "proud" PSA grade is reliable. They have not replied to requests to change their tags on the card which can be altered by ubscrupulous sellers.
I saw a video about that from Bluejacket66…a known altered card that was bought back by PWCC still has its PSA cert number up in the PSA database. Thanks for the comment. Collectors should be educated about this kind of thing so they can make up their own minds.
Thanks!
Thank you Al! You are so kind and generous with the support of the channel.
The grading companies for all types of collectibles succumb to greed. The collectors who pay premium prices for slight grade differences encourage them and deserve to be blamed when they are left holding the bag. It is a "house of cards" that eventually will fall. Grading is a service and should not be what makes the collectible valuable.
Buyer beware. I have a 10/10 UD Griffey that I paid 2k for years ago. I can't believe two idiots paid over 50k. I guess is similar to when people were over paying for the 86 Fleer Jordans. I remember watching eBay auctions 60-75k for a PSA 9!!! Now they're 20k..
I admire/respect how QUALITY this presentation is. Do you do similar data collation professionally?
Hey Brandon, thanks. No, this is just a hobby for me. I have spreadsheets at work just to keep track of data, not analyze it. I just like to ask questions and use the data from PSA to find the answers.
@@vintagecardcurator well done
Does anyone else chuckle a bit when you see a PSA 10 1986 Topps Traded Bo Jackson go for $35?
Those are $400-500 cards lately.
@@vintagecardcurator I could just cry, seeing what the "grading," thing has done. $60 to slab and grade a $40 Greg Maddux....
Lol sportscard invester bought one of these 10/10s for a huge amount! The value dropped hard after he did that
So many new "psa 10s" w/o auto were out there and magically got autographed lol.
I sold mine near the top and started slabbin and stackin garbage pail kids for generational wealth!
Wonder how many are from already graded 10s cracked open then resummited. Feels like if i wanted a 10/10 and i could get Griffey to sign I would want a card i know would be able to pass as a 10. I would be worried Id crack a 10 and get it back as a 9 though. 🤷
The video was put together well, knowing the facts however - Mill Creek went and purchased Graded 10’s on cracked them open. They are very careful going through the process and I will confirm that not all 10’s came back 10’s.
A number of people have offered this theory. Is there any evidence to support it?
@@vintagecardcurator I have personally worked at Mill Creek, been at a number of the Griffey signings over the years and have known the guys for 30 years+ - I've helped crack the slabs along the way. They purchased 37 - 10's that were cracked.
Thanks for being so candid with your answer. What is the role of 4SC? They don't do autograph signings. I figured MC got all the mint cards from 4SC. Did 4SC and MC work together to coordinate selling the cards?
@@vintagecardcurator 4SC and MCS do not have anything going with this. Anyone is open to sending items into get signed at a signing, whether a rookie card, jersey, bat, etc.
Wonder what would happen if the card was removed from the psa slab and sent to bgs......
What was the company or companies you said you could send Griffey cards to? Is he still signing with these companies? Nice work!
Mill Creek and Tri-Star run mail-in auto sessions with Griffey from time to time. Check their websites for the next one.
Good stuff
Great video. I know at one point during the 2020/21 C*vid time, Geoff Wilson with Sports Card Investor did a video on this card promoting how awesome it was and that he was buying one. He hyped it a lot and if anyone follows Geoff and SCI, they have often promoted cards heavily that Geoff is buying (and I wonder if these are ever used to prop up cards he intends to sell). Just adding some color here. His videos now do have an effect on part of the market regardless.
Thanks Kevin, others have made that comment to. I looked on the SCI channel to see if I could find the video and it didn’t come up in a search. If anyone could drop a link I would love to check it out. I want to plug the timing of the video into the timeline.
@@vintagecardcurator Is he a good guy overall? He appears to be a Saint but with money involved a good actor can fool many. Thanks.
Psa 10 homie hand outs
The Tier 1 PSA Dealer Bonus!
The PSA Gem Mint 10 Pop unsigned is over 3000 cards!!! Estimated over 2M of these cards printed....it's not a rare card nominally or in high grades to begin with, the idea that adding Griffey's auto to it is worth tens of thousands of dollars is ridiculous. I think fair value today for this card is $2-3k
Good insight and info... here is a missing piece: These were psa 10s and then cracked out to get signed. Did Mill creek have mill creek cancel the PSA registration of the cracked out cards?? Because if not, that means the unsigned PSA 10 pop report is inflated (as there are all these cracked out cards)
I don't believe they cracked them out. 1) the 10's were selling for $3,000 at the time those submissions went in. Too much risk in cracking them out, getting the auto and resubmitting. 2) it's doubtful any dealer had dozens of PSA 10 Griffey's sitting in inventory to crack out and 3) the card is one of the most mass produced ever...the dealers would have no problem finding other mint examples to send PSA.