Surviving The Lost Decade
Вставка
- Опубліковано 2 чер 2024
- It looks like we are set up for a lost US decade and this has consequences for both US and non-US investors. So in this video, I show you the reasons behind this and end with some practical ways to avoid its negative effects.
If you want to learn more about investing then why not become a pensioncraft.com member? To find what we offer and how you can join our friendly community click here www.pensioncraft.com/investor...
What Else PensionCraft Offers:
💡 Book a coaching session with Ramin so he can answer your questions in a one-to-one video call via Zoom: pensioncraft.com/power-hour/
📰 Sign up for our free weekly market roundup to get news and views about what's going on in the stock market and wider economy pensioncraft.com/market-roundup/
📖 Understand investment in more depth with my online courses pensioncraft.com/courses-we-o...
❓ Join PensionCraft on UA-cam and you’ll be supporting me to make more content and I will answer your questions and respond to your comments on UA-cam as a priority ua-cam.com/users/pensioncraft...
Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:30 Why A Lost Decade
02:27 US Stocks Are Still Expensive
05:21 US Dollar Is Expensive
08:29 For UK Investors
12:03 For US Investors
Where Else You Can Find Me
🎧You can check out my weekly podcast all about investing here many-happy-returns.captivate....
🌐 Website - pensioncraft.com/
📱 Twitter - / pensioncraft
👨 Facebook - / pensioncraft
🔗 Linkedin - / pensioncraft
Tools I Use To Create My Videos
✔️ My primary data source is SharePad and an affiliate link for this is here sharescope.co.uk/pensioncraftsp (This link provides new users with a special offer and gives me a small commission)
The rest of the tools I use are free open source software:
✔️ ggplot2 package in R for my plots
✔️ RStudio to edit and run R code
✔️ OBS to record my videos and live streams
✔️ Kdenlive to edit my videos
Take A Look At Some Of My Other Videos & Playlists
📹 Investment Strategies playlist • Investment Strategies
📹 Income Investing playlist • Income Investing
📹 Investing With Vanguard playlist • Investing with Vanguard
📹 Portfolio Building Blocks playlist • Portfolio Building Blocks
DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
I fired my financial advisor and told him i no longer need him now that I have Pensioncraft
Oh dear Ramin, you've just told people who absolutely love US stocks that they don't have as good of a positive outlook vs ex US. I've told people this on financial subreddit's the same thing and always get down voted by retail investors who have it ingrained that the US is "better". Glad you're making content that goes against the grain.
Betting against the worlds financial engine for a decade is a brave move.
Great video. Thank you!
Few channels really give the insights and quality that you do... thanks so much mate.
I appreciate that @Moogy Jones
A swap fee shall be added to TER for the total fund cost. So G500 will be 0.05%+0.30% = 0.35%. Always pay attention when buying swap-based replication ETFs
Thanks for your content, always valuable and a thanks to the back room crew (Laura) for all your efforts
Great content, as always.
Very useful and relevant (sadly I've just spent weeks analysing and adjusting my portfolio for the same reasons). Frustrated as were you by the lack of ex-US in the UK which makes the exercise more complex. It's perhaps worth commenting that "diversification" needs to be investigated and not just taken for granted in a global tracker. A FTSE All-World index based fund will currently have ~14.6% of it's total assets in just 10 companies which are all in the US (out of over 3,000 equities). In this case it means you're diversified as much as what all other investors have chosen to buy. Which may be exactly what you want - or not.
Given the different types of headwinds the UK is facing right now, I wouldn't count it as certain, that the pound will outperform the dollar.
Best advisor I’ve found on UA-cam. Thanks!!
Wow, thanks! So glad it was helpful @Dan I
Thanks Ramin for another amazing content. I am a fan of your content here.
great content thanks
Question is: Do Vanguard have any credibility in their forecasts? What did they predict might happen for 2010--2020, & how accurate were they?
Thanks Ramin. High quality content as always!
A couple of quick observations:
a) A detailed analysis of US market suggests that overall other markets may have greater returns, however, that growth is unlikely to be spread equally across all these markets. Other analysis I have seen, suggests that most of this growth is likely to occur in Emerging Markets. In order to make balanced decisions, it would also be necessary to do a similar analysis of each of the other markets that you are now likely to be overweight in.
b) You need to be careful that you are not simply putting more money into higher risk markets. Your 10 year returns may improve but this may come at the expense of volatility.
I believe people are paying a premium for US companies based on higher quality of earnings both in terms of high margins and higher level of accounting quality as well as slightly higher aggregate growth. Makes sense to me.
thanks ramin!
Really informative. Thanks for clarity on presenting.
Glad it was helpful @Andrew Woods
Hi Ramin! Great video. If currency hedging doesn't matter in the long term, and you are a long term investor, why not just buy the US Vanguard ETFs in USD and then the currency risk will even out in the end? Then you can buy your Global ex-US ETF with a smaller MER. Thanks in advance (new and trying to get a basic handle on these ideas).
Thanks for you super educational video. Always enjoy your insightful videos.
So nice of you @Alastair Munro
Beautiful presentation as allways. I guess that for EU investor holding some form od Msci World index will suffice, I guess that if US market weakens, index will also shift weights accordingly as for EM, I cant be bothered to add that too since Im too lazy. Maybe adding World Value ETF would be a decent move since its lighter in US and lighter on valuation.
At 10.11 that is wrong, in the UK we cannot get 0.05% on the G500
Thanks Ramin as always for your knowledgeable suggestions. I swapped both my S&P 500 & NASDAQ index trackers to GBP hedged index trackers (G500 & EQGB).
Interesting as always, but these suggested portfolios are based on where the underlying shares are domiciled, not what sector they operate in. For UK based investors, with larger portfolios just pick 15-20 shares across the sectors in the FTSE 100 and 250, and rebalance each year, could be even cheaper than a tracker. For those with smaller portfolios, sector exposure needs consideration in choosing ETFs or index trackers. The Schiller analysis here does not show the valuations by sector which I would think is much more important in the world today as it is .
How accurate have Vanguard predictions been in the past? That is the premise of the whole video so if Vanguard have a bad track record then it’s all moot
Even if previous predictions were accurate that doesn't necessarily mean future predictions will be. For what it's worth BlackRock also have return forecasts for the next 5 and 10 years on their website and are also forecasting higher returns for large cap non US equities.
Yep. They can't predict inflation or rates for next month , so how can we believe a 10 year view ?
So we are supposed to believe so-called "analysts" of which 95% fail to beat the market and take their word at face value??
@@johnristheanswer Exactly, we can't! Take them with a pinch of salt. 👍
The US having headwinds is clear, you don’t need to believe the forecasts to still want to not have 60% of your eggs in 1 basket.
Great video 💥🔥
I'm also a value investor 💰
I remember way back in 2007s when some financial "expert" was saying how the markets were overvalued then and that would lead to a "lost decade". And he did seem right when the market crashed spectacularly the next year due to the mortgage crisis. But lost decade??? Couldn't be more wrong! The market recovered strongly and continued to hit all time highs as interest rates plummeted and stayed near zero for a decade! Whenever anyone says "the market will do this or that or whatever", it really pays to take it with a grain of salt because nobody really knows how the markets will do and there are multiple factors involved. It is already difficult to predict how one factor might affect the markets let alone the combined effect of several of them
Who funded the wonderful years after the 2008 and who reaped the benefits? Clueless!
@@MrSupernova111 Who cares?? It wasn't a lost decade after all. In fact it was one the best decades in a long time! Perhaps unprecedented. Name a decade when interest rates remained at zero throughout. And imagine what a fool you must have felt when you listened to so-called "experts" with their fancy graphs and financial jargon only to miss out on all that
It's interesting that Vanguard are forecasting this considering they are predominant US company
@One-Eyed Beanie . true
I dont see the prospects of a low interest enviornment for a couple of years. The difference today from then is high inflation. Unless we get inflation down to the 2% target and keep it there they are not gonna lower rates.
For that to happen they need to kill the aggregate demand by increasing the unemployment rate significantly. A lot of bad needs to happen before it becomes good.
You know, for someone who says they're not sure about technical analysis, you sure do seem to use a lot of technical anlysis :)
Maybe that's one of the reasons I enjoy your content so much!
A lost decade means a decade of buying the s&p 500 cheaper.
Fidelity offers several global equity funds that exclude the United States. Some examples include:
1. Fidelity Global ex U.S. Index Fund (FSGDX)
2. Fidelity International Index Fund (FSPSX)
3. Fidelity Total International Index Fund (FTIHX)
4. Fidelity Emerging Markets Fund (FEMKX)
These funds invest in stocks of companies located outside the United States and are designed to provide exposure to international markets.
I presume those are available for US investors?
Yet again another great and brilliant video, so does this mean you will be moving from a vanguard core Dev world X uk fund to the “ x Us ones “ to offset the lack of possible US growth ?
As a US investor, I think I will bump my ex-US equity holdings up from 33% to 40% as a result of this info. Thank you. I am a long term strategic investor rather than a tactical investor, and it makes sense for equity holdings to be 40% international for the long term. But I'm reluctant to do tactical tilting because for it to work I would have to remove the international tilt at the right time in the future. So I would have to be right twice, years apart. I am more comfortable with rebalancing winners into losers within a more or less static, well balanced long-term allocation strategy. I even kept buying long-term treasuries during 2022, since that's what the strategy required. Eventually I'll be glad I did.
@timelston4260
I put my sipp pension into a 60% equity, 40% bond portfolio, with just 2 etfs back in 2021. Ftse dev world & UK gilt, government bond index. I am really regretting it now, I have about 9 or 10 yrs hopefully left until retirement, I thought it was time to have some bonds I the portfolio. I did rebalance last year selling some equity and buying some more bonds. It didn't feel good, but this is the passive strategy. I'm just hoping at some point the interest rates will come back down and my bonds go up in value again. I really wish I'd had a crystal ball, but that's never going to happen. I feel like I've made mistakes with my investing, but I've been following passive investing ideas and John Bogles advice, so started to de - risk back in 2017 as per my age roughly. So far its turned out to be a mistake I so wish I'd stayed with 100% equities, at least up until this year when bonds are at least cheaper.
@@fredatlas4396 I understand the feeling, because that's how it felt for me last year, too. But with each new purchase of long term treasuries last year, I kept telling myself I was buying them for years down the road, not for today. What happened last year was a 40-year event, not likely to happen frequently. In that respect, it was good to get it out of the way while we are still working. By continuing to make an income and buying into the drawdown, we dodged the bullet of a significant sequence of return risk and strengthened our portfolio's adjusted risk by being able to buy more government bonds while yield is high. During our retirements, it is likely treasury and gilt yields will fall again during an equities crisis, perhaps even multiple crises. That's when we'll be glad we have them. That scenario has happened more frequently than this rare scenario when government bonds fall even worse than equities. I see it this way: if government bonds went up every time equities went down, the correlation would be -1. But no asset class has a -1 correlation with any other. So it's to be expected both will go down at the same time every so often. I still feel confident in diversification across asset classes with low correlations. I'm sticking to my strategy, come hell or high water, because it's a sound strategy even as it anticipates that there can be years as bad as 2022. I also have gold and large tilts toward domestic and international small cap value, so those assets did help blunt the pain from the simultaneous large drops in growth and long term treasury allocations.
@@timelston4260 we don't really have any access to small cap value funds in the UK. The Vanguard ftse all world high dividend yield eft appears to have a lot of value stocks in it, it has gone up since 2021 so could have been a good buy, but I didn't have that fund. How much percentage are you in bonds. My UK gilt etf is longer duration than the intermediate US treasuries so it has taken quite a big hit. My main problem is I need more money for retirement, I should have stayed more in equities I think, but after the covid etc it really does appear that anything can happen & will happen sometimes. I also have another sipp pension with Vanguard, some money in lifestrategy 60/40 equity, bond fund and currently paying monthly into a ftse dev world ex UK index. The lifestrategy has a lot of exposure to the UK equities. It looks like you are correct on sticking with a long term strategy, well diversified portfolio and rebalance say once a year looks good. The overwhelming evidence seems to support it, passive strategies do better long term buy and hold. I think the hard part is the psychological aspect, behavioural part of sticking with a strategy thru thick and thin whatever., & not being tempted to make changes
@@fredatlas4396 That's too bad the UK doesn't offer SCV ETFs. I have 20% long-term treasuries (17-year duration), 5% short term treasuries (2-year duration), 15% gold, and 60% equities (domestic and international both split between total stock market and small cap value). So it's like a 60/40, but with 15% of the bond portion in gold. My portfolio was down 16% for 2022, which was only slightly better than the 18% loss for a total world market portfolio. The LTTs hurt. If I had 20% ITTs instead, I would have fallen only by 12%.
But I don't consider a mistake to be defined by one year's performance in a long term strategy. In the long term, LTTs provide a greater magnitude of negative correlation to equities than ITTs do, and the yield is always greater at duration. A mistake could be made to transition to a conservative portfolio at too early an age, but if the allocation risk of a balanced portfolio is appropriate for one's age, then one year's horrific performance doesn't necessarily indicate a mistake. I went from nearly all equities to my current allocations after I realized I had crossed the line into having enough, at age 59 (during 2021). LTT didn't help preserve my capital at age 60 (2022), but other parts of my diversification at least helped a little, and in the long run I expect LTT to play their part when everything else is down.
Yes, the psychology part is a real challenge. When I went through the 2008 crash and was full of feelings of fear of total collapse and loss of my nest egg, I thankfully taught myself to do reverse psychology on myself and "enjoy" the fall so I would not sell out of fear but instead keep buying out of greed. That worked for me then when I was in a Vanguard Target Date Retirement fund at the time, and I think it still holds for someone near retirement, assuming the risk profile of the portfolio is appropriate for one's goals and age, even if the sky is falling.
Hi Ramin. Looking at regional distribution for Vanguard Developed World ex US (VUA) UK investors should also be able to construct their own ( ex N.America )version comprising:- VDRG, VJPB,VAUEA and VUKE and re weighting without inclusion of Canada
Even the lost decade had its own business cycle with expansive liquidity and a bull market period, but yes overall returns were flat (if one didn't also invest in bonds that is).
if you’re investing in world indexes, do we just assume each country is invested in their own currency, unless its specifically written GBP Hedged? Thanks for the insights as always!
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this very informative content cheers Frank
What about US vs ex-US bonds? Considering a balanced portfolio should we apply the currency valuation forecast to rebalance the bond allocation as well (for non us investors)?
Hi, great video, thanks, I’m trying to buy gold in uk, what’s best? etf’s physical gold, stocks in miners? and where to buy it?
Great video. What’s the main fund you personally invest in? VWRL?
Worth nothing that these forecasts are for nominal returns, not real. In other words, that's 5.7% before inflation takes a bite. After inflation, you'd lucky to break even. Vanguard's base-case projection for US growth stocks is a whopping (!) 1.6% nominal.
Based on this I think I'll swap my MSCI USA based index fund for a Nordic or Norwegian one (I'm Norwegian), but I'll keep my MSCI World based index fund, even though it's pretty heavy on US equities, just in case this forecast turns out to be wrong. This should in theory create a somewhat better portfolio balance. Thanks!
Isn't region-picking (as opposed to buying a cap-weighted global index fund) along the same lines as individual stock-picking? I get it's usually nowhere near as risky, but it still seems based on the notion that an investor can outsmart the (global) market. Also, how accurate have Vanguard's forecasts been in the past?
But an excellent video as always. Lots of food for thought!
True, although being tactical in certain situations should pay off. e.g GBP hedging when the Pound has shat itself is probably* a good idea!
You can say that underweighting US is "sinning"/tilting away from market weighting. You can also say underweighting US is just getting closer to value weighting/fundamental weighting. One sounds like speculating and the other sounds as rational as market weighting does.
@@zdenek3010 Vanguard lifestrategy funds for UK investors are overweight UK, which appears to be undervalued, and also under weights the US which some people are saying is over priced currently. Also the Vanguard etf, VHYL has a lot of value stocks in it and has a very small overweight to the UK and underweights the US. Also it provides a decent dividend currently, although not nearly high enough to keep up with the UK inflation rate currently. The Vanguard ftse all world high dividend yield etf, in the distribution version VHYL or the Acc version can add some extra diversification to your overall portfolio as well
if you don't want to region-picking, shouldn't you like what he's saying? He's trying to lower the heavy US bias in these funds. Which cap-weighted global index fund did you buy and what's the distribution?
I want to get a good exposure to the US dollar relative to the euro. Do you have any advice on how I can best do this?
Great video - I am shifting my portfolio out of the US. Only exception is Tesla stock, though I may sell my US holdings and invest this via Frankfurt in Euros - but I understood the Euro Tesla shares aren’t full company exposure shares - are they exactly the same shares just a different exchange (on the off chance anyone could advise)?
While this seems like a reasonable prognosis, I would not be surprised if some time in this decade another round if irrational exuberance and FOMO sends equities soaring again, whether it is warranted or not.
How do they get the forward earnings of a particular stock market, surely nobody really knows the future, isn't it just like guesswork, guesstimations. Surely the time to buy foreign stocks for US investors was and is when the Dollar is strong, then if you've built up a large holding in foreign stocks when the Dollar weakens your foreign holdings will go up in value in Dollar terms
Missing the 30bps swap fee from the currency hedged product?
please include EU insights also, we enjoy your channel
Ramin at 1:12 - are Vanguard saying these are their predictions in $$? So, if the (overpriced) $ is also set to revert to mean, will that mean that the cagr of the Global ex-US stocks are actually also a bit 'weak' when seen in other currencies ie not $?
What about AI, eg ChatGPT, Microsoft etc? Any non US names in AI implementation?
Would it also make sense to change ETF's that a nominated in $ to ones that are in €?
Also how could an Investor from the EU use the weakening $ to increase profits?
Not sure we're at Lost Decade yet. If you look at the inflation adjusted total return on the S&P500 (log scale, obvs) it looks like the bull run we've been having still has legs compared to historical runs. The consistency of the historical patterns is remarkable! Of course, that's just me looking at lines on an graph! But, I've lost money betting against the US stock market before. I'm just not quite ready to do it again... [Edit: we talk about decades - but they're typically 15-year periods. We've had 5 in the 75 years since 1948 - 3 bulls and 2 losts, averaging 15 years. The bulls averaging slightly longer than the losts]
01:00 before inflation or after inflation??
What about looking at demographics with India and Southeast Asia looking very favourable.
It's likely that the next decade will have higher inflation and interest rates than the previous decade which could mean passive investing will disappoint so might be a good idea to have some exposure to active funds.
Spice road countries.
12:00 Wouldn't it be better to have FTSE North America UCITS ETF (VNRT) instead of VUSA? VNRT has both USA & Canada.
Have US stock market performance and earnings been adjusted for inflation over the same period?
sir you are forgetting liquidity effects to valuations. US is far more liquid market. Also forecasts are always wrong :)
Would a GBP hedged global tracker such as IGWD do the same thing as Option 1: Currency Hedge US Equity Exposure but without the complication of multiple ETFs?
This has an OCF of 0.55%, that’s very high.
Great video. I am just moving my portfolio from vangaurd over to interactive investor so am going to rejig my trackers at the same time. Unsure whether i should reduce exposure to the USA or hedge by going for a GBP currency.
do you have any thoughts on what may perform better(appreicate its a finger in the air question) :)
One could reduce US exposure and currency hedge.
Surely it’s best to just buy world equity and not make forecasts and hedge?
The life strategy uk bias to the rescue!
The international investors may benefit from investing in the US *after* the USD drops. This may mean international investors will get a boost to their returns as the USD rises again.
I would take what Vanguard says with a pinch of salt when they are substantially invested in the USA and their products will fail to sell if the forecast is more realistic. USA earnings have been pushed up by 14 years of cheap money, that assistance has come to an end. The USA P/E is still very high and Government and private debt is at an all time high. Global energy costs are high and likely to remain high which will provide further headwinds for trade and manufacturing. Finally USA's meddling in the Ukraine via NATO may have given them much of Europe for Natural gas sales, but overall maintains a geopolitical risk that will take the dynamics back to what we had in the 1990's but with Asia as a much more developed competitor.
Great video, is it worth pulling out of VUSA and just going all in on VWRL as a UK investor? Has kind of a good split 🤔
VWRL is not gbp hedged... it's in USD
@@marwatiandfamily3647 so you will still have currency drag down from the dollar as a UK investor? Thanks
@Colin Robinson Yes, the etf is native USD. You can buy it or receive dividends in either USD or GBP.
VANGUARD FUNDS PLC FTSE ALL-WORLD UCITS ETF (USD) DISTRIBUTING - GBP (VWRL)
Hi Ramin! Thank for you yet another great video! I really enjoy getting financial related content that is a bit more down to earth and factually based.
I am a long term investor focusing on global equities (and some local bond funds). Based in Norway, I do not have access to that many funds via our local brokers. It is much easier to find funds that aren't currency hedged. Also it kindof seems a bit wrong to me to go out of my way to "time the market" with currency hedging against the USD, selling my funds now to get into some more expensive currecy hedged fund.
Do you think that as a long term investor, I will be OK just sticking to my plan and buying global equity funds (based on MSCI Global + MSCI Emerging) that aren't currency hedged?
Feedback from anyone would be appreciated!
Can you buy U.S. ETF-s in Norway? Or are U.S. ETF-s unavailable in Norway as they are in most of Europe?
@@louisaparker yes you can buy us etfs but on a less tax favorable account type
Premium subscriber as from today. Not totally convinced about the Vanguard forecast. There are far too many variables, economic, political, climatic & viral to name a few. The US has far the biggest & best companies & technology. It also has the most highly rated universities & a very strong business culture apart from it natural resources that are in demand by Europe more than ever since the Ukraine invasion oil, gas, wheat.... That apart the GBP has lost value against the USD the whole of my life since WW2 at the average rate of 1% pa. Still happy with 50% global equities & 50% IBTM for the long term.
A weaker dollar can be a good thing for US companies.
Oh yeah, for trade US could appear cheaper
I have Vusa, any recommendations on world etfs thanks guys
VAFTA
VWRP
So if your retirement date is over a decade, you get ten years to buy US stocks around these prices before they start to kick on again?
Sounds good to me
also I'm pretty sure the last decade we kept being told that US was overpriced and UK was cheap. How did that work out?
G500 at 0.05% AMC sounds wrong, HL are showing the AMC at 0.3%
G500 ETF is listed on InvestEngine at 0.05% TER.
@@simonjonesptchester Yes, just checked the Key Investor Information on HL and that also says 0.05%. I've had a good read about G500 and it is a synthetic ETF based on swaps and derivatives to simulate the performance of the S&P500, not necessarily by buying the underlying stocks of the index. Sounds a bit complicated snd riskier than just buying underlying stocks.
That's right the 0.05% is the management fee from Invesco. The 0.3% is the cost of the swap. Thanks, Ramin.
I’ve looked at the key investor information document for G500 and it notes a 0.05% ongoing charge and a 3% “swap fee” per annum. Does this mean that the charge is actually 3.05% per annum and you’ve actually listed an incredibly expensive Option 1 of hedging US equity exposure?
I am also here to say that. It is 0.30% though, but my understanding it is passed to investors per annum. So yes it looks like it isn't cheap at all
Apologies Edin, you’re right. So are we right in saying that the Option 1 is very misleading and is actually very expensive, with the biggest holding costing 0.35% per annum rather than 0.05.%? If so I think this should be corrected in the video as I’ve actually spent time preparing a portfolio that I’m now questioning. I haven’t added any funds to the portfolio yet as I’m preparing it for the next financial year.
@@danspencer6840 To be honest I am not sure if we should call it expensive. A currency hedge isn't cheap, that's why I had doubts about 0.05%
Less inflation $$$
If the US under performs then everything else will
Hi Ramin. Thanks for the video. I have been liking and watching your videos for months and love your work. Can you do me a favour and let me know the ticker symbol for the good hsbc global fund you mentioned with a fee around 0.12%? Also what is the ticker symbol for the ftse developed non uk fund? I can only find the one with the UK. I would really appreciate this and keep up the good work
Honest Question. Do you think bitcoin will outperform a mixed portfolio of total us stock market, REIT, international and small cap?
Stock prices are based on entities that generate revenue. What are bit coin prices based on? Someone else will see more value in this made up entity? Wouldn’t want to be the one holding the can when the music stops.
Are these real returns or nominal? I don't get it. 5.7% per year is not a "lost decade".
When inflation is 12% then 5.7 is pretty naff
Surprisingly, they are nominal returns (I just checked because I was almost certain they must be real, but nope). 5.7% nominal is bad enough, but imagine earning only 1.6% nominal. That's Vanguard's base-case projection for US growth stocks over the next ten years.
@@EvolutionRich but inflation isn't going to stay at 12% for a decade. Might take a year to come down to target and then interest rates will come down but only to around 4% which is the long term norm. Obviously excluding the anomaly of 2008/9-2021
Don’t bet against US companies.
They are world-wide companies now.
11:50
If you believe Vanguard's predictions Ramin then why would you still keep 45% of your portfolio in the US?
I could understand doing that as a hedge against Vanguard being wrong but your video seems to assume they will be right.
Hi @Edward Kenworthy I'm sticking with a single global equity fund in my core portfolio because (a) I'm lazy and (b) I value simplicity. When I do complicated things, even if it's got a compelling narrative that goes with it, things usually go wrong. But I think many people do believe this narrative (overvalued dollar, overvalued US stocks) so I thought this would be a useful video showing what you can do about it. As usual my job isn't to tell people what to think or to produce forecasts, it's to educate. Thanks, Ramin
Why not just use a tactical momentum model that dynamically shifts to non -US etfs. Models that Meb Faber published “A Quantitative Approach to TAA”
I like your channel but must of the stuff goes over my head.. would joining your community be of any good for me who don’t understand a thing about the charts and graph …
Hi Tom, you could give it a go and see if it's helpful. If you go for the monthly membership you can just cancel after a month if it's not making any sense. Thanks, Ramin.
Hedging dollar exposure is a REALLY stupid idea. Every major currency is structurally worse than the USD over the long term.
How so? 😂
@@MultiformeIngegno Every time the US debases through debt monetization they get to debase a 2-3x larger pool of USD per citizen because they are the reserve currency.
@@michael2275 reserve currency status will not last. Do not bank on it.
@@Ivosein1 It is what it is. It will take a long time to change imo. Too many USD contracts and debts.
i am surprised that India its expensive, could you elaborate on that in a future video? I thought India its cheap and offers plenty of potential
Anybody bullish about EM?
Maybe over 10 years but China seems intent on attacking its neighbours eventually.
As an investing enthusiast, I often wonder how top-level investors are able to become millionaires off investing in crypto and stocks. I do have a significant amount of capital that is required to start up but, I have no idea what strategies and direction I need to approach to help me make decent returns
I'm shorting BTC with leverage of 10x
cool story bro
@@chrisf1600 well every time I add a comment it always does the opposite 🤞😅
@@ifell3 ha :)
I can't say I have much faith in Vanguard's capacity to predict the future. The US elections aren't too far away. Why wouldn't a Republican US president implement an adult energy policy and get the economy growing again?
Wait did you use the word adult and republican in the same sentence? You do know Trump was the last republican president and Bush Jr the one before that? You have to go back 2 decades to get to the ones you are talking about and by all reckoning those type don’t stand a chance in the modern Republican Party. Mind you Democrats are a total mess as well, so yeah….
I associate a lost decade with Japan when returns were negative or zero. If the US underperforms the world but with acceptable positive returns then that is not a lost decade.
Obviously US stocks are more expensive becouse it is the most stable region in the world. You can't say that doesn't have any merit for the future. I don't have much hope for Europe becouse EU wokeness and byrocracy is destroying everything. And the east Europe is and will continue to be unstable for a while. The country I am most fond of investing in right now is Brazil.
Ramin, I can't believe you've lumped us in with the US! I'm sorry, but I don't really like that, grumble grumble...
Je suis désolé Guillaume. I did apologize! And I do love Canada (I've visited both the East & West coasts and loved both). Thanks, Ramin.
Please do not be deluded. Ramin runs this channel to earn money. I am willing to concede that he has some altruistic aims but it is a money producing venture at the end of the day.
Wow. Please dont listen to this
Why u Making Funny Looking Faces In Your Thumbnails
Next You Will Be Speaking For 5 Minutes and Say Out Of The Blue
"Hi My Name is and Today We Are Going To Talk About Blah Blah Blah"
Stop It Just Be Nornal
Sorry NZShareman that's the way I look! Nature has not been kind 8-). Thanks, Ramin
Surviving the lost decade 101: Get into crypto and stocks right now for the incoming market meltup (see Henrik and David Hunter's theories). Get out near the parabolic runup to ATH, and before the big crash and incoming lost decade. Last chance to make money for a decade plus is likely only in the next several months. After that it's game over for years. Depression and crash like we've never seen.