The True Story About Long & Variable Lags
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- Опубліковано 10 лип 2024
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The point between Fed tightening and easing is a good time to reconsider the widely accepted long-and-variable-lags theory of monetary policy. Is the economy still vulnerable to recession from the lagged effects of the 2022-2023 tightening round? We don’t think so. The markets have already started to ease, which should offset some lagged tightening effects. Furthermore, lagged tightening effects don’t invariably cause recessions. Our work shows that recessions result when tightening rounds cause credit crunches, not when they merely tamp down demand, and that credit-crunch precipitated recessions descend quickly, not with lags. … Also: Recent unemployment stats support rising consumer spending, in our view.
I really enjoy Dr. Yardeni's videos and written work. He's probably the most analytical market watcher who isn't also a permabear. I am buying stocks right now based on his outlook. Yes, I would prefer to buy them at a lower price, but if his outlook is correct these valuations are not terrible.
I always trust your pulse on the stock market,sir. you’re the most honest analyst and a great human being with your pleasant demeanor on CNBC.
Happy New Year Mr. Yardeni!
Thank You
Good question from Ian, thanks 👍
Surely an increase of interest rates leads to capital formation reduction due to the marginal return on capital not being worth further investment at 5+%?
Or worse still, causes a reduction in capital requirements (and thus layoffs).
5.8 million annual sales rate for autos means sales are off about 2/3's then. how is that healthy?
Core inflation. Fed focus. Went down to 3.9 from 4.0.
PCE is their real focus. Also, the core didn't meet expectations.
Perhaps, but it was the first time under 4.0 since 3/8/2021. Inflation is still one of two primary concerns for currency stability. Reflected in Fed minutes.@@tastypymp1287
I'll write this, even though you'll probably dismiss it. 1. I describe the pre WW1 era as the Lifespan Economy. The focus on the economy was on improving lifespan. Mainly simple products like soap, clothing, washing, footware, food quantity, internal heating, sewerage, basic medicines. 2. The post WW1 + WW2 + Cold War era was the Consumer Economy. I'd rather call it the Reward Economy. Rewards for winning wars. The focus was on reducing the cost of luxuries such as travel, entertainment, art, sport, hobbies, fashion, lifestyle choices. This ended with Covid. 3. We are now transitioning into what I would call the Regulatory Economy. The focus now is on reducing the cost of meeting regulations. We are familiar with some regulation but their number is going to grow exponentially with the adoption of new tech. This does however mean that the price of luxury and lifespan goods and services are going to rise and become less accessible than what we've been used to.
It's a real shame that rising market prices is now a function of currency devaluation rather than economic prowess.
Santa Claus rally was October 27 lol 😂😂😂
This podcast is subject to long and variable lags.
The self denial here is worrying.