Frank Drake - Where are All Those Aliens?
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- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- Most scientists assume that the universe must be populated with innumerable alien intelligences and civilizations-after all, there are billions of galaxies each with billions of stars and planets-we humans can't be so special.
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Just found out that Drake left us this year in September. I wish his family the best, and may his wisdom and curiosity of the cosmos stay with us. Rest in Peace Frank
I lost my mother Sept 26th. She killed by the Covid stuff in my opinion. I say stuff, not a shot.
She never missed any doctors appointments, and she always come back clean. 2012 fought Lung cancer. They removed half of her left lung. She was good to go. From, 2012- 2018.
Until Covid. Then Diagnosed with three and 3 months to live. . She took chemo lived 5.1/2 months.
Greatest woman I've ever known. She was 77 years old and full of life. RIP Momma.
Disappointing yet realistic answer
We dont have enough information about our Universe to call this realistic one way or the other.
Phillip Robinson we’ll forget”realistic” we are looking for the most probable answer
@@philliprobinson129 We certainly have enough information about our own capabilities/limitations to say without any dispute that we do not have the ANY of the capabilities necessary to make even interstellar space travel even worth thinking about, much less a plausible possibility.
@@chuckschillingvideos no we don't have that at all. We can say we don't have that capability now, but our knowledge of our capabilities is always evolving.
@@philliprobinson129 this is an argument you can make in response to any claim. You can ALWAYS say that, "well our knowledge always changes so this could be wrong in the future." True. Absolute certainty is never possible. We can't know with absolute certainty whether or not the sun will rise tomorrow, whether other humans other than yourself really exist, whether you're a brain in a vat, etc. Our future states of knowledge will always change.
Rather than state that obvious fact and say "knowledge will change so this may not be true", you should take what we know today and form opinions from it. If you say that we can't/shouldn't derive conclusions from what we currently understand in physics because it will change in the future, logically you have to do the same with medicine, chemistry, biology, etc. I doubt you would say that its not realistic to derive conclusions on how the heart works, or how hormones work using our current state of knowledge even though our state of knowledge if these will no doubt update in the future.
It seems to me that arguments of this kind indicate confirmation bias. One wants something to be true (aliens exist and have visited us for example) and rejects the implications of all modern physics in a way they wouldn't with any other branch of scientific inquiry.
Best explanation of space travel .
James Zelazny sr no its not,this guy is an idiot,who knows zero about space and time,and they have been visiting the Earth more recently when human beings started to play with nuclear weapons.
@@johnbravo7542 agree. I also think the nuclear weapons play a role. They saw these testings. They probably thought, how fucking stupid are those humans. Playing around with nuclear bombs, contaminating the whole planet. UFOs are real. They are advanced. Therefore they figured out how to manipulate space-time. Bob Lazar explained it and it makes all sense. A gravitational propulsion system.
@@johnbravo7542 😄
"an intelligent civilization would not attempt interstellar space flight, only the dumb ones would and they don't know how to do it."
LMAO there you have it.
funny. and added to that fact, is that earth is not 'in a cluster' and would not be a horizon targe for 'good huntings' :)
That's a good perspective. Touche! Considering the distances, your remark may very well be true. People talk about reversed engineering before we have proof for life out there whatsoever. And while these people talk about wonderful civilizations among the stars, our scientists search for life in the form of bacteria. There we are today and that is what we know. But tell that to the scifi community who are one step ahead of themselves. They are beyond reason.
Another statement to add to the List of "we will never need more than 16MB of memory on our computer" among others.
@@tonyh9401 Far easier to reduce distances than to travel impossibly huge ones
@Zardoz Right, to the bravest belong the stars, to the timid belongs the safety of the "cave". In a cave you can not look up to see the stars. As for our destroying ourselves first: "When it is the darkest,..... you can see the stars"!!
My favorite interviewer
Frank I'm very happy to have found you on UA-cam you do the best explanation about space travel, the average American can't comprehend what it's all about.
smart man. Thanks for these videos, i've been searching for answers to the fermi paradox that make sense to me and i luckily stumbled onto your youtube channel.
Hajir Moghaddam the Fermi paradox is a bunch of BS. Their here and have been for quite some time. It’s time for the world to awaken!
Just watch some of the NASA space videos or you could just click on me to see them. I’ve seen over twenty five of these things and captured a handful on video. Watch the four minute video entitled “orbs around us all the time”
Wonderful interview!!
They are here, always have.
This is the second scientist I’ve totally loved. Total, total love. 2nd scientist - second figure - after Jared Diamond I’ve totally loved.
Same thing here, minus Jared Diamond.
I wouldn't expect anything less from Frank Drake himself - to the point and realistic. No matter how advanced telescopes or how fast ships we build, the universe has limitations that can't be reached, no matter what technology we obtain.
We are in no position at our current level of understanding to know that for certain.
@@philliprobinson129 We definitely know many things. If they are “for certain” or not doesn’t really matter. For example, we know to a high degree that interstellar space travel will require huge amount of energy, that knowledge will not change. So not everything will be revised moving forward. A table will always be made of atoms, that will never change moving forward. Maybe we will learn more about them but it will still be made of atoms.
Well said. This man is brilliant.
Nerf Oreos LMAFO
Yeah. No. Sorry. Bad equation. Bad thinking.
Ha! you ask the inventor of the Drake equation if he would consider that we are alone in the universe. Ironic.
We need not be alone, in all probability their are other societies in our galaxy studying us as we attempt to study them. Intelligence eventually leads to the futility of inter stellar space travel and the more advanced a society becomes it realizes the impossibility of such an endeavor. We are having tremendous trouble mounting an expedition to a close Planet in our own Solar System. The problems faced on even this relatively short distance, less than fifty million miles, seem insurmountable, if we are to preserve and ensure the lives of he Astronauts. Imagine a trip to Alpha Proxima which is estimated to be some twenty five trillion miles away
it's not a dumb question, as even the very people who are tasked with trying to answer the equation, will admit that they themselves are not sure if what the answer actually is.
factors with the universe, including our current primitive understanding of how the universe actually works, make things like 'searching' for intelligent life, is probably insanely difficult.
s cho I never said it was a dumb question, if that is what your implying. My comment was of irony, asking a guy who clearly believes other life exists else where in the cosmos, if he believes life exists elsewhere lol.
@@sunny-sq6ci I do not consider any question as being "dumb" Questions about science must be answered in the logic and reasoning of what is known to be true. For instance their are "UFO's" too many people, reputable people, have seen them, but a UFO is just that, An Unidentified Flying Object. You may not want to accept it but ninety nine point nine percent of them can be explained by science.. In so far as space travel is concerned, ask your self if you were going to make an automobile trip of a thousand miles and you didn't want to make any stops along the way, you must carry everything you will need with you, enough gas, some sandwiches, water or drinks, a means of relief if necessary, maps and everything else that you might possibly need.. Now lets extend that trip to ten thousand miles, every thing you carried before must be multiplied ten times. Logic should tell you that you don't have the room to carry everything you will need on a trip that long. Extending that premise to space travel imagine the logistics of a twenty thousand year trip for a bre minimum of twenty people. Do you realize that any energy source will run out in under seventy years.. Nuclear energy will be depleted in under sixty years and you would be too far from any star to tap its solar generating potential.. If this were not so NASA would have equipped Voyager's one and two with solar generating sails to compensate for the Nuclear energy source they both rely on at present Their are physical reasons why no solid mass can travel more than two hundred fifty thousand miles per hour in relative velocity and remain intact. What we call time is the primary factor that any intelligent society would consider before making such a trip and that is the why of such a trip. What could we learn from another being in twenty thousand years that we won't learn on our own in that same time. The universe works the same no matter where you are or may be in it at any and all times. What applies on Earth applies on the most distant body in the universe. . .
@@sunny-sq6ci Who are those people TASKED with uncovering Alien beings. Who assigned them to this TASK. SETI is a proven exercise in futility and as far as I know is a private organization bent on getting a signal from some alien society. Do you or they realize the wattage necessary to send a signal from any stellar body orbiting a star just to overcome the radiation of the star itself. Think of the wattage necessary just to communicate with Voyager one or two. Plus communications from them reaches Earth at wattage levels so small that it takes four or five large radio antenaes to decipher the signal. To send a signal from Alpha Proxima to Earth it would require in excess of a billion watts of power at twenty four trillion miles distance. Wattage decreases at the same rate as gravity does over distance.. What is the reciprocal of a billiion watt transmitter at twenty four trillion miles distance. This is why SETI is an exercise in futility. A billion watts of power would burn up any substance we know of if it were applied to it. Then we have that overriding question of, wouldn't a society so advanced to do this know these facts and not even make such an attempt. Get real, S Cho Intelligence doesn't engage in useless projects or they shouldn't when they know it has no reward of any kind. .
Very cool interview.
We actually can track the flying saucers and flying Tic tack now some of them, only if they want us to see them
''Only the dumb ones would do it, and they don't know how'' , well said Frank!
Thanks
Good answer!
Priceless
Wow! what wise arguments from Frank Drake!
How so? All he is doing, is trying to back up his flawed equation.
“Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space.”
Is that hitchhikers? It sounds like it.
This doesnt factor in A.I or exponential technological growth in general. The pebble idea is something I hadn't thought of. They also dont factor in interdimensional travel, I.e. intelligence projected in energy. Lots of myopia with this guy but he makes good points. It has that bill Gates "no one will need more than a fee kilobytes" feel
His myopia is in part trying to justify the original equation, which represented the dawn of radio astronomy. TBQH, the equation makes a lot of assumptions about things we haven't really verified. The most cryptic parts are based on assumptions, which are very important parts of the equation.
It doesn't matter how exponential the technology gets, we're still bound to the laws of physics. As for interdimensional travel, that's just science fiction.
It factors in the speed of light, the one thing meat headed dreamers don't factor in.
I know exactly what u r saying, he's opaque to the idea of singularity. " Intelligent civilization wouldn't attempt space travel" that's just a dumb argument. We can't comprehend what will happen after singularity. We'll discover new things every milli second
@@fishoutofmind4943 laws of nature which we don't even know, it has everything to do with exponential growth of technology and general AI. After singularity, if we do reach it, it will be pretty clear how easy it would become for us(or them I should say). We might witness in the near future 50 years maybe
A human answer to a non human question. Doesn’t matter how clever a human you are your brain is looking at it from a perspective that is incomprehensible to us
Frank Drake: Father of us all. Yours are the words of wisdom. We listen in awe.
Cool vid. Wish I'd taken a class from Frank when I was a UCSC student sooooo long ago.
You would be where you are now ...only sooner. ...lol.
Interesting
Would have loved to hear Sagan’s answer...
He wasn't asked, and didn't say, why we haven't received radio or tv signals...has he been asked this in any other interview here on UA-cam?
Mr Kuhn you MISSED the BIG question: "If there are intelligent species in the universe, they'd be sending TRILLIONS of various radio/ laser/ light signals --- WHY haven't we seen a single one?"
How would you know that? Maybe they use different types of technology to transmit information.
I have a family friend who claims to have been abducted by aliens along with his brother, he was even interviewed about it for a show on the Discovery Channel back in the 90s. This answer is the one I favor, that the distances involved make it so that we might as well be alone.
As I've just commented elsewhere: Distance isn't an issue with inter-dimensional beings.
@@mollykeane2571 there are always ppl who I don't know why are too opaque to future discoveries. I mean after singularity, it's probably peanuts for AI
Our Sun by being boring and nothing special by itself, could actually BE special!
Our perception may not be the other person's perception; perception is NOT reality :)
What is that piece of equipment behind Mr. Drake?
Compelling Points.
First lesson learned out in the field as a civil engineer is it might look good on paper but will it work in the real world.
Exactly, the distances are far too great.
I don't know why they keep asking the same stupid question over and over when the answer is so stupidly evident; even with some billions of intelligent lifes like ours or above in our own galaxy (which is already a terrible large place to consider and it does not make any sense think larger than that), the closest neighbourhood would not be detectable and reachable by any means....
AI systems could travel far enough and probably have, not living beings.
@@erixoz8535 even for that kind of "life" (I would guess not super common) those iperlong trips are incredibly challeging, much more chances that something goes wrong during every trip they could make.
I think humans just have real trouble comprehending what a million years really is. It's just way too much time to expect nothing to go wrong while traveling through space, let alone even just expect an organism to survive.
exactly...humans cannot fathom the enormity of space...
We would have to freeze ourselves somehow and hibernate.
@@afterthefox
Cringe
@@goyonman9655 ???
wow inpressive knowledge
Frank is a wise man
Legend
When watching these, one needs to remember that, speaking in strictly scientific terms, "intelligent life" means "carnivorous hunters."
Refreshing to hear some honest logic for a change
There are alien intelligences here on Earth ...the octopus is one example ...we eat them. ^^
The fact that the Sun is 'boring' and nothing really happens to it over long periods of time means our solar system is relatively stable, and that's one reason why Earth has thrived and evolved life so successfully.
The probability is low, even with 100B Galaxies x 300B stars, the suitable environment probability for any life to start/created on any planet itself is on the knife edge
This clears it up . It is logistically impossible to achieve meaningful or even ANY communication with aliens because of the distance problem.
this guy is so optimistic
Nice. Just nice
Wow, you got to have a conversation with Frank Drake! So awesome.
We have observed NO life outside of our planet. No time travelers, no beings from other dimensions, no nothing. The probability of life arising on earth is a statistical impossibility. Until proven otherwise by observable evidence, we are alone.
Great points. I would like to see something that suggests life out there one day. I’ve always wondered about our history here on earth with the “Gods” that ancient humans encountered were of possible extraterrestrial origin. A lot of lost history. An artifact or radio signal would be encouraging.
What I love about Frank is he never proposes anything preposterous. He's only saying that the probability that we are alone doesn't add up. The universes is most likely filled with life. Whether that life is intelligent or capable was never part of his reasoning. The problem with homo sapiens is that we view the universe as human centric. We always think that just because we are a certain way that the rest of the universe must be like us. It's just a ridiculous assumption. Other life forms may or may not be anything remotely close to human evolution.
Why don't we see light or radio communication?
They are visiting us. Just because limited nascent human technology can't detect them is irrelevant.
His equation just sets the mathematical estimations of life producing possibilities out there in the universe . It says nothing about there actually being any life out there .....
Drake's da man.
Yes we are
Beautiful, brilliant science mind!
Who?
He starts with the most outlandish and unrealistic hypothesis (to point out their outlandishness), but glad that he finished with the most realistic... the Universe 'isn't that way', and distance and time is enormous. Life and especially civilization just doesn't last long enough to meet others. Everyone is alone during their times in existence, more or less.
Life will be out there but there’s too many variables for us meet them. Time, distance etc
I certainly take the zoo hypothesis seriously, we do no less with primitive uncontacted tribes here on earth. If we discovered a race of people on Mars living in the Bronze Age then it’s almost certain we would not try to contact them. We would simply observe them. From an aliens perspective to visit the earth with blatantly superior technology will obviously cause problems for the human race. For one we will want access to that technology and secondly huge swathes of the population will react with fear and terror. ET will be clever enough to know this.
true... but then again... ET will realize that humans are a destructive animal that is destroying itself and the planet... so like a zoo... they would probably hose the planet down with a human equivalent of weed killer.
You’re assuming other organisms will evolve exactly like us.
I find the zoo hypothesis pretty unsettling from an ethical perspective. There is a lot of horrible stuff going on (from child cancer to wars, sicknesses, abuse, factory farming etc.) and just observing that without trying to improve the situation might sound "reasonable" (aka Star Trek first directive) but really it's fucked up. Because all those victims who suffer didn't choose it, it's not like to people stepping willingly in the octagong to MMA each other.
@@johnxantoro5511 the issue with your view is thinking that an advanced alien race has anything like morals or ethics...
@@renaissanceman5847 But that is my point. It would be unsettling because it would basically prove that they don't live ethically.
I always revisit this thought that, what if we are the first ones to emerge. We need to make sure Earth stays safe so we can find out.
You neglect to consider dilithium crystals and warp drive.
What about the possibility that they are too small to see, at least from this distance?
He doesn't fully reckon with the fermi paradox. He says travel is too costly to expect to find evidence of travel, but that's not the only way to gather or provide evidence. As he indicated, light and radio waves can also furnish evidence to us, and yet, we are empty handed. The costliness of travel does not explain why.
If interstellar travel so difficult for us, the how close would an intelligent alien civilization have to be in galaxy for it to be possible and worthwhile to travel to earth, even to just send a probe? Such an intelligent alien civilization would probably have to be millions of years old and not too many light years away in galaxy? Can the Drake equation factor in intelligent alien civilizations that are at least a million years old and a feasible number of light years away?
..one more thing, if you can travel at or faster than the speed of light, more than likely you are not using radio waves because they are too slow...we know now that the Higgs is part of the mechanism responsible for attaining mass as you approach the speed of light, if you can alter this mechanism (which they can, haha) of the vacuum light velocity could possibly be overcome
o man plse wake up, they are already here probably for a long time to. Universe is teaming with life.
@@rubiks6 Plenty of people have.
@@rubiks6 It doesn't mean it's not there though.
Fun Video ... but everything Frank noted as the "boring" attributes of our star or the exact reason it is interesting, unique and different.
there is a conceptual error with speed of the von neumann probes fundamentally. the distance which can be reached within a time interval is bounded by the speed of light multiplied with the elapsed time, so with the most effective way the speed of the spread out is a cubic instead of exponential at most.
It is exponential. Remember the distance covered by each probe is roughly the same, but they will eventually cover a large area. It's not really about covering a large distance relative to the starting point. If every star in the galaxy was lined up then yes it wouldn't be possible to do it exponentially quickly. But they're spread out.
Dr Frank Drake you probably have seen #Unacknowledged this will answer every Question
1:26. You have to be joking! I witnessed an intelligent non-human machine at 11-pm CDT on 6-12-2014 for three minutes over Dallas Texas. Get Real!
good mushrooms, huh?
I have witnessed crafts too. There are only 2 ways. Either back engineered or real stuff. I do believe in the last. There has been so many encounters as well down to abduction cases. I think they in secret try to develop a new hybrid race. They have been here for ages and we might even have been seeded by them. If you think that rock up there called the moon is a natural object, wrong. It was brought into orbit billion of years ago and does have a function. A good read, the book, "Who built the moon". What I am trying to say, not only do they observe us, they even seeded this planet with the human race of today.
Dr. Drake is loaded with common sense. I do wonder, however, about the relative uniqueness not of our star, but our star system, which we have not as yet seen replicated in our small exoplanet search space. You can argue that our uniqueness may be impossible, but leaving how commonplace animal life in the galaxy/universe an open question.
we are alone. no evidence no probes nothing out there. just us.
Well that doesn’t mean anything... I mean there’s more stars in the universe than there is grains of sand on every beach in the world. I bet we haven’t looked at every star....
10:33 so telepathic communication is ruled out then?
The smartest most reasonable comments on this subject I've ever heard. No one wants to do this, or spend the money and time to do this.
The only problem is that we do not know how to build self-reproducing probes, and in fact we cannot probably sustain our own species with all our supposed brilliance.
physics does not tell us anything about traveling to the stars, what i`m saying is physics is still in its infancy theirs so much more to discover and learn
The reason we don't see evidence of extraterrestrial civilization is because our ability to observe them
Andre Williams inability
Thanks Professor Drake for your insightful and thoughtful comments. Your answer has , for me, illuminated my ignorance of the science and physics- "Only the dump ones (aliens) would attempt to fly a spacecraft to another star..."
maybe they just wanted to escape home cuz of catastrophic event that they've predicted through math!
the earth calculated by math will only exsist 12 thousand years from now on
its dumb saying not wise that the dumb once will try
Wonderfully intelligent discussion.
Smart and knowledgeable answers to opinionated shady questions
What a wonderful thing it is to listen to this guy among all the people that so obviously consider themselves bright, but just destroy the subject with their fantasies. There has to be reason. That's right! Reason! This man gives the necessary perspectives. It's a good thing to start with the obvious questions how and why? How are the aliens travel and why would they come here? It's easy to say reversed enginering, but try to sort it out in the real world. There are observations I believe might be alien crafts, but there is not one solid proof for it. Until we have that, I think it's healthy to keep one's imagination in check.
There is an episode of Cosmos in which Sagan adresses the space travel and its troubles. I noticed that, unlike Drake, he explained it taking the speed of light effect on time.
Sagan, for example, says we could reach the center of our galaxy in 21 years, ship time, at the speed of light. But the center of the galaxy is 30,000 light years from us, which means that this would be time passed for the organisms that didn't take part of the travel.
Drake seems to think that the time will pass the same way to the passangers. One of them must be wrong.
They're both right. Sagan was talking about (sci fi) traveling at >99% light speed. Drake was talking about (reality) 1% light speed.
Some day, with fusion or antimatter, we might go 10-30% light speed - not fast enough for time dilation to matter.
and what will be the reason that will stop us from reaching 99%+ of light speed?
Also have you heard of teleportation? Why doesn't drake acknowledge teleportation?
A thought experiment consisting of actual thought and genuinly honest conclusions. Thank You!!!
It makes sense to me that if I was an alien species and went traveling through space looking for another intelligent species our type of stable boring Sun would be the ideal place I would start looking. Since that's the environment that produced my intelligent species. Not a sun that is brighter or drastically different in some other aspects that I can't imagine.
Boring is a good attribute for a stat if you want intelligent organisms to evolve? That’s all we look for when searching for exoplanets that could sustain life I would assume other intelligent beings would do the same
Distances and the laws of physics, time to evolve
A sort of prime directive from Startrek could forbid contact until we are ready for it. But there is more going on than that since we even observe nothing remarkable that can't be anything other than alien. So I start then wondering if it's possible to filter all our observations. That seems to take a kind of impossible big cloak around the earth, it would take enormous energy. Who knows there are other ways however.
@Wild One Perhaps, but you certainly nail it that if aliens can hide what is (was) "really" going in the universe, then they could also hide many other things going on under our nose in the solar system. But that cloaking technique seems almost impossible. How could you do it ? A screen bigger than the earth?
Earth is still primal...and his answers are hypothetical...Has he spoken to aliens, wonder when they told him it was to far...
We could pick up a few or several neutron stars, strategically position them to bend space-time for us and travel with new propulsion systems that use solar or nuclear energy or some form of new fuel that will be sufficient to go and return.
Singularity happend and quantum computing and they webt in micro SPACE because size is irrellevant
Why not build space settlement mock-ups here on earth! AND start from scratch!! As would a mars lander landing in dirt!!
That still doesn't answer the question "why aren't we hearing from these aliens via radio waves"
Try telepathy?
Because they don't exist. There are simply too many variables against the formation of life. We are, in fact, special on Earth.
exactly what i would say
What they described regarding self replicating robots, come to think about it, it kind of sounds like human; so intead of sending self replicating metal robots/nanobots, they sent out biological one.
If we look at the evidence it appears to me that the variety of craft and the performance characteristics of these vehicles which we have tracked on radar are not consistent with the normal pattern that goes with coming from one place, apparently we have multiple phenomena if you want to call it that oh, it's not coming from one place oh, but their technology and capabilities are quite similar because they're able to do things that are out of the scope of even the comprehension is the most advanced science on Earth
It's actually not true that our solar system is not unique. Now that we have mapped many other solar systems, we can now see that planet sizes tend to be very homogeneous. The range of size variation between the planets in our solar system appears to be unusual.
He just laid it all without saying it directly. The greys that we are familiar with are not biological living creatures, they are essentially robots
We aren't in contact with aliens and we aren't the aliens. We are all little children inside
If the most avarage star can get life going then the possibility of life is bigger then we can imagine
We’re all trapped in our own Little Rock pools of existence which makes a bit of a nonsense of wanting to understand the universe as a whole... So much for curiosity and mind blowing science that’ll never really get us anywhere....
about time someone said this. We ain't gonna go to another star or galaxy. silliness. Is it just my area or is all of PBS not showing this wonderful show?
ron johnson I guess we'll never be able to fly people use to say how out dated they sound
The Drake equation doesn't take into consideration everything else that's out there