Hugh Hendry: Let's Cut Through the Macro Chaos
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- Опубліковано 5 гру 2022
- Burdened by a monetary system grown too complex and wrongfooted by a seismic regime shift, many market participants now question Federal Reserve policymakers’ understanding of and ability to manage the macro landscape.
Their choices are limited, notes renowned macro investor Hugh Hendry, and it’s questionable whether central bankers even grasp the far-reaching implications of those choices. Hendry, in conversation with Hari Krishnan, the head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital Management, explores structural inflation, global dollar funding, a Fed pivot, and more. Recorded on October 27, 2022.
TIMESTAMPS
1 The Fed and the Shortcomings of the Monetary System 01:05
2 Do You Believe Inflation Is Structural? 0:15:21
3 The Fed Is Jeopardizing Financial Repression 0:31:36
4 How Would You Trade a Fed Pivot? 0:43:10
5 Where Do Investors Go from Here? 0:57:02
6 The Takeaways 01:08:16
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#macro #macroeconomics #federalreserve
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TIMESTAMPS
1 The Fed and the Shortcomings of the Monetary System 01:05
2 Do You Believe Inflation Is Structural? 0:15:21
3 The Fed Is Jeopardizing Financial Repression 0:31:36
4 How Would You Trade a Fed Pivot? 0:43:10
5 Where Do Investors Go from Here? 0:57:02
6 The Takeaways 01:08:16
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Best RV interview for a while. Good to see HH speaking clearly and coherently, dropping the mystical allusions…
Thanks Ron!!!
what is the fine word that Hugh used at around 2:35? Omni- something. I couldn't hear. @realvisionfinance can you help with my questions?
@@cloudy2249 omnipotence - meaning all powerful
i note he's wearing a "i love london" pin as opposed to "i love cayman"...maybe he wants to open up shop in London again with the new big bang edinburgh reforms?
Hendry is a genius...surprised he can stay sane in this financial environment. I like Hari as a host,,,good logical follow up questions.
Thank you!!
Been watching Hugh's commentary since he showed up on Bloomberg Surveillance several weeks ago. Quite an education. I see the point that we are in a depression papered over by monetary stimulus. Hugh made the point that previous depressions have been resolved by adjustment to the nature of money, not the term he used. For example in the 1970's Nixon floated the dollar against gold. And by the way I also see the period of 1966-1996 as another depression. Look at the stock market adjusted for inflation. It didn't get back to teh 1966 high for nearly 30 years, just like after 1929. Instead of food lines we had gas lines. There wasn't starvation because of food stamps. Now we have homelessness. But there has been no apparent shortage of gas because of government intervention, including that the dollar is not on the gold standard has actually been on an oil standard.
The money supply has been being adjusted relative to the availability of oil in order to keep gasoline prices, ergo inflat in line. In the last decade as more oil was pumped and gas prices dropped, more money could be created. But now the pumping has stopped, the dollar has to be devalued relative to oil. Instead of a floor at around $40, the Biden administration has declared a floor around $70. Everything is being repriced, and to Hugh's point once that happens, inflation will no longer be a problem. However interest rates will have also been repriced because the "oil printing" of the last decade is over. The money supply must now be contained. However if that causes deflation in shadow banking as Hugh fears and it is deflation in the cost of housing, that will be a feature of the current Fed policy not a bug. It will be the solution to the current depression.
Thanks for sharing your insights, Nick!
His remarks regarding abandoning the political system in 2010 and retreating to an island are unfortunate, as I believe this trend will continue to grow. Individuals with resources and talent are increasingly likely to depart. The situation seems to be evolving into something akin to Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged," where talented people, those who contribute value, choose to leave.
Why Jeff Snider is not on Real Vision ? About time, following Hugh Hendry's appraise for him here ...
Of course he is! He's a regular in our platform. 🔥 𝗚𝗘𝗧 𝟳 𝗗𝗔𝗬𝗦 of Real Vision Premium access & insights for only $𝟭 (seriously!) rvtv.io/RVfor1dollar
As a Eurodollar University member, it is incredibly insightful.
Hugh Hendry and Jeff Snider. Hero s. 💪❤
Thanks for watching!
Recorded a month ago, should change the channel name to Rear Vision Finance.
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Subscribe to the channel duh.
Gotem
Is it ironic to complain about a month old macro view?
If it doesn’t survive a month, it wasn’t a macro opinion.
Hahahah fantastic name! Rear Vision Finance! Well said...
that was a great interview. love the interviewer.
Thanks for watching!
Absolutely incredible interview !!! Bravo, RealVision for this ..
Thanks Sachin!!
I really enjoyed this I just got an essential membership
Amazing!! Welcome aboard Austin!!
Hugh is a legend , hands down
100%
3000%
From one month ago? Sad.
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The man talks so convoluted and fancy, can somebody give a short understandable interpretation?
His brain works at a 1000mph when it comes to money and the economy thats why
Agreed, the topic itself is convoluted / complex. The conversants could have made it easier to listeners by allowing a thought trend to completion without interruption. Also, hahas, yeahs, are wasted sound bites with zero information. After the unnecessary detour into MMT, the epilogue was good: “I find my myself in unhappy domains as I stretch myself 18 months into the future”. The summary was excellent.
Yeah he isn't telling us anything really. At least not that anybody can understand. For every important sentence this guy utters, he spews out 50 with absolutely no coherence whatsoever. Raul is clear and concise. He doesn't fluff his words. We want more of that.
Waaay too many commercial breaks/interruptions during this discussion to enjoy it.
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I used to think Raoul was pretentious till I watched this 😂 Interesting chat though
Train speed vs gdp per capita.
Perhaps the boston-NYites are grossly overvalued, wheras chinamen are undervalued?
The value unlock in the highspeed train, in a population high density area cannot be underestimated. Only the perception of value and worth. The chinese gov sees their people as worthless, hence low earning compared to the value add created.
Granted there are patented tech and key services in the US, but at that magnitude?
Thanks for sharing your insights!!
Trust wil be the End
No trust no value
👀
Weird looking Dude, but smart
Thanks for watching!
if I join real vision, would there be a Q&A with an expert who can explain concepts highlighted by Hugh Hendry? each topic he raises deserves a whole class on it. i would join real vision in a heartbeat if someone can expand on what @HughHendryOfficial said.
Yes! Please check out My Life in 4 Trades episode with Hugh Hendry, hosted by Maggie Lake www.realvision.com/podcast/mylifein4trades/episode/5fda727a-6a93-11ed-bc1f-3b2cbfb0134d
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