Mutiny Interrupted: Prigozhin Stands Down | GoodFellows
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- Опубліковано 28 тра 2024
- A tumultuous 24 hours in Russia-ordinarily pro-Russia armed mercenaries marching on Moscow, Vladimir Putin’s whereabouts unknown-reveals the fragility of that wartime autocracy. Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of the Washington, DC-based think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator and host of the Geopolitics Decanted podcast, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and H.R. McMaster to discuss the reasons behind the Wagner Group mutiny, Vladimir Putin’s job security, and the impact the insurrection will have on the prosecution of the now 16-month war in Ukraine.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
0:00 Introduction
2:13 Vladimir Putin and the stability of the regime
7:20 Implications for military + Russian population
9:49 Tipping point + what prompted the march
19:21 Putin’s grip on power + Threats
25:08 Are his forces willing to fight? (Russian Military)
31:16 Ukrainian Aid
33:14 Xi Jinping’s perspective
36:04 Conspiracy theories + affect on Putin
45:46 What are the western nations doing? + Predictions
Thank goodness you guys are back. I was at a loose end over the last month 😀
Thanks for introducing me to another honest, reliable non-partisan analyst along with Kotkin, you guys and Julia Ioffe and... I'll let you know if I can think of somebody else but don't hold your breath!
Thank you guys for coming back and please don't keep us waiting so long for the next episode!
Great to see you on camera finally, Dmitri! I have been listening to your podcasts since the beginning of the war. Much respect. Also shoutout to McMaster, who is the man. :)
Niall is such a special thinker -- great to hear him speak off the cuff like this
Sometimes it feels like these guys are the last ones to find things out.
General's Kotkin impression was hilarious. I wish Prof. Kotkin was one of the goodfellows.
lol what timestamp was that?
Kotkin's my fav soviet historian.
Yes, can't have Good Fellowes without Joe Pesci aka Stephen Kotkin.
The only thing more hilarious than Professor Kotkin's impression is when you get the Goodfellows to talk about the "Woke Mind Virus" and they don't realize they are trying to lose Cold War 2.0 to their insecurity-riddled anti-human rights rhetorical diarrhea - standing next to Putler on LGBTQ+ rights is the dumbest military strategy that I have seen self-declared intellectuals attempt in several decades. Emboldening domestic terrorists instead of coping with their issues with discrimination in a classic case of Libertarian hypocrisy.
It is around 17.50.
Outstanding show, fellas! Love Dmitri! Miss John!
Welcome back! Best podcast of all. Cheers and please keep them coming 🎉💪👏👏
Another great discussion!
Thanks guys.
Interesting and insightful conversation as always. Thanks!
Prigizhin gets PTSD, and the crowd goes wild.😂
I love this program
Always thoughtful.
17:51 HR triggers the “How am I funny?” Scene with Kotkin.
Thank you for this update.
Great summary, thank you!
We need more guys!! Don't leave us hanging so long next time
Niall is the best of them...
Great Show. Another "Night of the Long Knives " with Prigozhin as Ernst Rohm, guaranteed..
No, Prigozhin was never necessary to Putin, nor was he ever a threat--Rohm was both until his timely end.
@@kreek22 A mutiny is no threat. Okay. Rohm was no threat either, Himmler was power hungry for his SS over the SA.
Very informative. Thank you...
Putin's orders where not to fire on Wagner. He explicitly stated to avoid such confrontation. Everyone consolidated around Putin and more rational steps were taken to stop the moving formation. Their fuel truck was destroyed. Roads blocks created and when Prigozhin was told that he'd face resistance and he had virtually no support he was hoping for, he then gave up and gave in to Lukashenko's demands.
Bravo Gentlemen, what a befuddling weekend
The Generals impression reminded me of Bill Hader impersonating John Malkovich.
Good show, good fellows, thank you! Keep up the good work! Just one more thing: I want to congratulate Dimitri to his hot sense of fashion... I haven't seen a man in suits like his since the '80s... 🤔😅
Lots of Good talk!
About time! Been waiting
John's been missing a while.. the discussion could use his practical insights and input.
Love Niall and Dimitri
Good stuff in this very fluid time!
I think the analogy of Prigozhin with Stenka Razin is also relevant in Russian psyche.
Bill, that it’s. Straighten your glasses or I’m not watching good fellows anymore!!🤓🤣
We now know that the Russian system reacts badly when under pressure, so going forward, put them under more pressure in more places.
Exactly. being mindful to keep things in a Cold War state rather than hot; but yes put more pressure, support Ukraine's defense.
You guys are insane. That half of the world is already starving and undeveloped and you guys want more destabilization? And we wonder why our empire is commanding less and less respect domestically and abroad.
Slava Ukraine❤❤
H.R. McMaster forgets that that the Ukrainians have lost many of their Junior officers and NCOs That they need or can't replace. (@ 29:13).
🙏🙏🙏Perspective…., while listening…, what I observed was the beautiful sunny day & breeze blowing your curtains.., I’m in freezing NZ🇳🇿😂
We see from our perspective..
John, come back… miss you!
Good point Niall, I was confused as well, Nicholas II of Putin, lol
The Russian nationalist who is willing to say "This war sucks" , that Niall was referring to is called Igor Girkin. Interesting things may come from that man.
Very good discussion. thanks for posting , sparked many thoughts and a great spread of intellectual styles. I would think an actual vet in some capacity would aid to these types of discussion. nice video.
as usual about the best thing I've listened to all week! thanks GoodFellows
Prigozhin should buy one way. Ticket to South America
It is all theater, they call it maskirovka.
Putin uses Wagner group as shock troops
A nuclear power is never defenseless! And consider that an attack on Wagner would be tantamount to cannibalism in that it is made up of many Russians. Attacking them would be worse than exiling their leader to Belarus. Just a thought: suing for peace is always the better option.
This guy is really good.
17:55 funny as hell :D
I will get my wine 🍷 and seat.
Interesting discussion about Russia leadership etc
But I’d like to hear a similar discussion about Ukraine situation
Russian alligator helicopter super weapon can shoot from 10 miles away
Dmitri!
It feels like it was such a long time ago when some Goodfellas were recommending appeasement. Even china is a paper tiger.
So, Turkey in NATO but Ukraine, maybe not. Much about NATO is explained.
Hey, HR, how am I funny? Am I a funny like a clown? Do I amuse you? - S Kotkin
The idea Wagner is a "formidable fighting machine" is laughable, Mr Ferguson.
I think he's comparing it to the Russian military so relatively speaking it is better even though it still sucks.
Best army in Russia?
i find it hard to believe it was a temper tantrum purely from the perspective that it puts his life at great risk. he must have kompromat or some other collateral to ensure he isnt just killed immediately. letting the cat out of the bag on the messaging was big too, but it has to be followed up on to stick. priggy may be pro war, but just not this particular war. ultimately for these mafia types, its what is profitable, when they all realize ukraine war isnt profitable, thats when it cracks up.
You can only apply logic to the human animal to a certain extent. We run on emotion and pretend to run on logic. The left brain is outstanding at making our decisions appear to be based on rationale.
So you’re saying that the MoD was telling him the check was in the mail, and they told him that one too many times? Or were they deducting his expenses from his Bakhmut Bonus? Something like that, I think. The MoD was essentially screwing him in a deal.
So he ginned up his “Wagner Lives Matter” march, and was too successful too quickly. Instead of the Kremlin offering him a deal, he had to ask them to make a deal before he got to Moscow. He blinked first, which is why he didn’t get as good a deal.
Is there going be jack boot torch March on Washington dc
Excellent discussion. I’m stocking up popcorn and hoping for a Russian civil war.
Can you make a interview with Phillips P. OBrien ?
I'm looking forward to listening to this and I caught the recent video you did with him, but how can you do a play on 'Goodfellas' without Russia-expert Joe Pesci, Stephen Kotkin???
Great tchotchkes, Dmitri.
One thing that is interesting here is that, after this was recorded, the Chinese ambassador to the EU said that Russia should withdraw to the 1991 borders.
Kasparov is completely right about the Chinese territorial claims. There are so many aspects to this. Several treaties were signed during the Qing dynasty that were unfavorable to China. Then there were all the border skirmishes during Soviet times, and again unequal treaties. After Jiang Zemin died, it came to light that he had signed away swaths of territory. The reason given was that, when Jiang was studying in Moscow he was caught by the KGB in compromising sexual situations, and they later used that against him. Then, you have to look at the South China Sea. The "nine lines" territorial claims are based on imperial maps. This is important because historical claims to territory are important to Xi. Niall is correct in saying that the relationship between the CCP and the Soviets have not generally been good. In fact, that was one of the factors in Nixon's opening to China. He was using China as a counterweight to the USSR in the Cold War. It was sort of an opening a second front type of strategy. I think that Xi is being coy about all this, and that he will swoop in to take territory. It might have been done already if Russia didn't have so many nukes.
When Templar Knights posed threat to French Kings it took them years to destroy this militarised structure. When today's best armed fighters decided to challenge Putin, he crashed this rebellion within a day. Putin comes out victorious together with Lukashenko. Terrorists get nothing. None of their demands fulfilled. Very little fighting. All wrapped in a day. This will be a historic event of most efficient and successful diffusion of a military coup. The French had a similar event in their modern history, and it took them ages to diffuse it. The French military rebellion from Algeria.
It wasn't a coup, it was a mutiny. The French situation was very different.
⭐
Hot Dog Revolution!!!
Rfk all the way!
On our UK news they said the leader of the coupe was an Afghan. Why would Putin trust an Afghan to lead 5k troops on his behalf?
These totalitarian regimes often become, in effect, aristocracies. In Russia this is increasingly true of the nomenclature. In China you have the "princes", or descendants of the revolutionary leaders. Mr. Alperovitch points out specific examples, but this is endemic within the system.
Dekuji
I think I thought it was a ruse because I didn't understand how corrupt the regime was in Russia. Maybe a better way to put it is "I didn't really think it was possible for something like this to happen under a strong man"
It wasn't a "conspiracy theory", it just came off as too absurd to be real.
Then I took a couple nights to re-read Russian history since maybe the year 1900.
The place appears to have been functioning like this for a very long time.
Brazil with missiles.
Oh I needed that. Big dopamine hit from the Goodfellows. The only way it could get better is if the guest was Arnold Schwarzenegger!
This episode showed Good Fellows for the first time as propagandists and not as intellectuals. Wey below their intellectual, moral and career level. Not to be able to admit that Russia is stronger than we think and that Putin steering Russian ship better that anyone wants to admit. No civil war, no killing of it's own soldiers...problem solved in a day. I am affraid that this war is far from over.
Kotkin!!! Bring him back...
My understanding is before 1968, the KGB had operational control of soviet Nuclear weapons but changed after a possible rogue KGB plot to start a war between the US and China by attacking Hawaii with one of the oldest shared technology SLBMs and Subs Russia gave to Mao and launch from a coordinate that would coincide with where the Chinese would if they were to attack.
What about comparison to 1905?
Wagnerian Opera....love it!
Thx for this. Everything relevant is here except one thing. Crimea was not supposed to be used as a staging area from which to invade southern Ukraine. The 2014 referendum that was voted on by people with relatives in places like Kherson, Mariupol, Melitopol etc. did not mention a hint of what happened. Whether people assumed it would happen or not is not really important. It was the Russian Federation’s representation at the time and afterward. This is a key point of consideration all around, including in NATO.
Wagner guys must have heard Manchester City was showing interest....
Putin does think like you in the West do. He understood how to avoid this blood bath and he did just that
HR speaks at about minute 28. The lead up by the others is just noise.
Did Putin not fire on Wagner so as not to start a civil war within Russia?
FINALLY they are back
Come back
Gentlemen, you should solicit the thoughts of Mr Konstantin Borovoy (a former DUMA member), a fountain of knowledge and person with the deepest understanding inner workings of Byzantine maze of modern day Russia
Where's Stephen Kotkin!
they said 25k troops, not 5k
Transport for the rim powers can use boats, which scale with a cubic power. The heart land is limited to trains which don't.
А что с вами будет и страшно подумать..... не дай, бог, кому такое пережить.
HH sounds more like G. BUSH 1 AND 2. 2 2 funny.
GW Bush “The result is an absence of checks and balances in Russia, and the decision of one man to launch a wholly unjustified and brutal invasion of Iraq” “ I mean of Ukraine”. May 19, 2022
Is prigozhin going open hot dog stand
Medicare 4 All
Terrible idea for Ukraine in NATO.
🤑🤑🤑 BUMMER 🤑🤑🤑
The bastard loves a brew as well 🤣
We should ask Afghanistan for night vision goggles
The Jewish gentleman sure knows a lot about Russian internal affairs.
Ironically Niall also described how trump was setting up his government.
Russian lancet drone is a super weapon
" Victoria Nuland sat on a Wall
The EU economy's had a big fall
All Nato's forces and all Nato's men Couldnt put Ukraine together again"