Elon Musk says carmakers “much closer” to bankruptcy than they realize
Вставка
- Опубліковано 11 жов 2024
- Elon Musk says carmakers “much closer” to bankruptcy than they realize
-
Get a 10% discount on tickets to Fully Charged Live in 2023 (and meet me in person) using my discount code: EVFCLAU10
This code is for Australia only.
Buy ticket from here: tickets.lup.co...
Our 10% discount code for London and San Diego will be released closer to the event dates.
Join this channel to get access to perks►
tinyurl.com/th...
Members-only videos (see videos before anyone else)►
• Members-only videos
🔔 Subscribe and hit the notification bell! ► tinyurl.com/su...
Join me on Patreon ► tinyurl.com/th...
Join us on our newly created Telegram Channel to stay updated: t.me/theelectr...
The Electric Viking on other platforms:
Rumble ► tinyurl.com/te...
Facebook page ► tinyurl.com/th...
Facebook group ► tinyurl.com/th...
Twitter ► tinyurl.com/th...
Instagram ► tinyurl.com/th...
Pinterest ► tinyurl.com/th...
LinkedIn ► tinyurl.com/th...
My Stake referral link ► tinyurl.com/he...
👇 See more about me 👇
• You've been asking; he...
👇 My Bali trip 👇
• I went to Indonesia an...
👇 Subscribe to my kids channel 👇
tinyurl.com/su...
See more videos:
VW, Ford, BMW, GM, Toyota made a BIG promise they never kept
• VW, Ford, BMW, GM, Toy...
EV sales in China in Q1 2022 are crucifying legacy auto
• EV sales in China in Q...
Amazing EV startup makes structural pack similar to Tesla 4680
• Amazing EV startup mak...
Disaster - legacy auto sales collapse in world's largest car market
• Disaster - legacy auto...
My favourite NEW mini Electric car - the Lumin Corn
• My favourite NEW mini ...
Vinfast's EVs go on sale in US & EU - Be VERY CAREFUL
• Vinfast's EVs go on sa...
The most impressive electric SUV that no-one is talking about
• The most impressive el...
China's Electric car market goes CRAZY in Q1 2022
• China's Electric car m...
Electric car sales up 184% in China in February
• Electric car sales up ...
How Tesla plans to make TRAFFIC lights smarter with AI
• How Tesla plans to mak...
GM's dealers frustrated: tell GM to ramp EV production NOW
• GM's dealers frustrate...
Elon says profitable EV pickup IMPOSSIBLE for Ford & GM
• Elon says profitable E...
The 10 MOST efficient Electric cars In the United States
• The 10 MOST efficient ...
The top selling Electric cars worldwide in January 2022
• The top selling Electr...
2022's China EV sales show possible legacy auto extinction
• 2022's China EV sales ...
GM's new China EV business will make BILLIONS
• GM's new China EV busi...
BYD's affordable Electric pickup / ute coming next year!
• BYD's affordable Elect...
Germany EV sales In Feb 2022 - can Tesla overtake VW?
• Germany EV sales In Fe...
VW in-fighting + $2.2 Billion EV factory to be in Wolfsburg
• VW in-fighting + $2.2 ...
Tesla China production SMASHES forecasts: up 209%
• Tesla China production...
Tesla takes a HUGE LEAD in the US in January 2022
• Tesla takes a HUGE LEA...
Tesla BEATS Toyota, Mercedes, BMW & Audi in China!
• Tesla BEATS Toyota, Me...
US ELECTRIC car sales in January 2022 breakdown
• US ELECTRIC car sales ...
XPeng reservations open for game changing P5 in 4 countries
• XPeng reservations ope...
Toyota & BYD's NEW Corolla is actually awesome
• Toyota & BYD's NEW Cor...
INSANE nickel prices accelerate Tesla's huge EV advantage
• INSANE nickel prices a...
Tesla sees 100% Increase In orders over last 14 days
• Tesla sees 100% Increa...
NEW Chevrolet Electric Blazer SS coming soon...
• NEW Chevrolet Electric...
New Solid-State battery breakthrough solves key problem
• New Solid-State batter...
#elonmusk #japancarmakers #bankruptcy #mazda #toyota #honda #mitsubishi #evnews #evcars
This channel may use some copyrighted materials without specific authorization of the owner; but content used here falls under the “Fair Use” Copyright Disclaimer under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976.
Allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use.
Contact us for any copyright issues. If you want a credit of any footage we are using, please let us know.
Website: theelectricvik...
Email: info@theelectricviking.com / theelectricviking@gmail.com
I lived in Nagoya for a little over a year. The whole city is basically supported by Toyota. Little distance from Nagoya is Toyota Shi, which is all the Toyota factories and suppliers are located. If Toyota falls, the whole Nagoya falls. If Honda falls, the whole Hamamatsu falls. Sad to imagine
Devistating
I knew those cities and companies well in the 1980s when I was studying Japan Inc., as an American analyst. Their devotion to total quality management, kereitsu (Tightly integrated supply chains), I mean things were booming and it seemed they were going to sweep the world. They had a great 40 year run, but now it's rapidly coming to an end, and they just don't see it. And these are very smart people. It's really tragic. I can't believe it, but it's happening.
I saw this coming two years ago with Toyota and the Japanese economy. Thank you so much for speaking what is already evidence and looming strategically in the world of finance. Thank you
Totally agree! I am very concerned for Japan. Every one of their vehicle manufacturing titans is in real trouble.
@@timshort9692 no worries for the Japanese auto industry. The Japanese government seems not worried at all. In fact, they are trying to double Japan’s military spending to 2% of the GDP or more. Of course, this is under the guidance of the US. So if anything we should worried about Japan, it’s their military expansion or outward aggression …
Holy… I had not connected the dots yet that Japan is not only messing up in the EV transition, but that it is also the country with the biggest debt problem. An excellent and indeed alarming point.
@Are Gee Bee
Nonsense.
@@aregeebee201 whataboutism p0s
@@aregeebee201 japan is not china
china has stuff japan can only dream of
huge market
huge reserves
Huge company conglomerates
none of japan's conglomerates even compare
Oh and toyota and softbank are on the brink of bankurpcy.
@Are Gee Bee Are you on drugs? You are either addicted or brain washed.
You're right about this disruption being bigger, but it's not just cars. The renewable energy sector is killing off all other forms of energy production. At approximately 2.8 billion a day in revenue, the fossil fuel industry is freaking out at losing this stream of cash. When this industry crashes and burns, the face of the economy will forever change.
True dat
What people tend not to realise is that steady incremental construction of renewables results in exponential growth.
Hate to burst your bubble about ANY of this, but no. Everything from feature subscriptions to remote monitoring and range is being done by real car makers, and people are saying 'hell no.' Those same mass market customers, by the way, are still buying ICEVs...and the increasing age shows that they're not buying NEWER ones as much as older ones.
Solar and wind and batteries are showing themselves to be failures everywhere they're tried, from Australia to Cal to Germany, causing them to TURN BACK TO COAL AND GAS. The only thing getting killed off, is customer interest in a huge loan and Power Purchase Agreement for 1/10 the power you need.
Oh, by the way...thanks to battery and solar production, and the far smaller fraction of oil used in these processes. That means MORE oil than before, to supply more of that smaller fraction. And higher price per barrel...kind of like what we're seeing these days.
Thank God you don't run a wealth management channel...
Not so sure about that. Worldwide daily output is 90 million barrels, much of that not consumed by vehicles. Some oil CEO’s embrace the idea that while it may change, output levels will still be very high.
It’s funny how bad this guy is, remember 2008, is he’s a economist? The government will back up most important companies. Maybe some will go belly up but a depression. We live in another age, unless a situation where we can’t product enough food and water or ways to survive. Tesla will go down if Muck keeps opening his mouth. I wouldn’t buy a Tesla.
Great vid and I agree on your take...I've traveled Japan on various vendor tours and, you're right, the entire society is designed around JIT Mfg, specifically, the auto industry. This goes back to Dr. Edwards Deming's cultural coaching, post WWII and the 'one unit' production concept. Toyota, imo, somehow got 'wrapped around some political axel' and lost their magic of planning. This is so confusing... and tragic. Keep up the great work, Mr. EV! I also wonder how the Japanese government will respond to such losses of industry. Maybe this is the secret plans that we just are ignorant of... a Japanese government-subsidized approach to EV catch up...? who knows. I just keep buying TSLA.
If the govt response is anything like it was when the "militarists" had extraordinary influence in the Hirohito cabinet, I strongly suspect they will maintain their current course. Seeing anyone with an obvious problem, and trying to subtly communicate is rarely successful. What might get their friggin attention is a hostile takeover of their biggest make (Toyota) by some random white guy who has hundreds of billions of dollars. Instead of taking over a social media platform, making a huge down payment towards a foreign make would have real spicy. I know, the Japanese would have all the excuses in the world why the idea is just unacceptable. That's alright... the cars in Shanghai are cranking out at an ever increasing pace, maybe the bigger mission to quicken the pace of the big switch from ICE to electric is served just as well by an all ICE company being eliminated from the transportation game. Sadly, the folks who brought the prius to the world just don't see where this is all heading. Ouch.
It’s too late . If you understand how iconic brands fail to shift to new paradigms you understand a entire country built on legacy supply chain is 100000000x and next to impossible turn around. A change in Culture and rewards/systems cannot be changed overnight .
@@blueeyes6192 I think that's true. Here in the US, there are clearly large swaths of us who just disregard electric cars, trucks, renewables, etc...with sweeping comments like there's no solar at night dumbass. Um, yeah, no shit, and water's wet too. Thanks for nothing, wait that's less than nothing. Just a bunch of assholes, unwilling to change their ways.
You know the Germans created “Just In Time” manufacturing right?!😂 Their “green” processes are also industry leading… like burning paint flow off from the paint shop to heat the factory.
@@lukeclifton4392 source? I tried, but all the interwebs offered was the Deming championing of Shewhearts work pre ww2 and in japan just post...but was in reality just statistical process management. But then in the 70's, it was Ohno at Toyota that ran with the ball... if you know of something more I'd love to hear it!
Japan is SO focused on keeping their residents IN the country as their population is not perpetuating itself. This could be devastating in ways we cannot fathom.
Excess workers (and population) will be the problem of the future, with rapidly increasing automation and artificial intelligence --in ways we cannot fathom.
Not in the western country's the low birth rates because of corruption will shrink the population
Seems inevitable and coming on fast - same with S Korea - these places are extremely smart people and hardworking, but not reproducing
Manufacturing is 89% of the GDP of Japan. Sure….:-). Rather 19%-20%…
Industry got a 30% share of Japan's GDP, nowhere near 89%...An additional false interpretation is the huge debt of Toyota, this is actually coming from car financings which makes solid profits. So this report got some flaws.
The biggest problem for Mazda and Subaru is that they currently compete in the ICE market along angles that EVs are particularly strong - Mazda is zippy with good handling. subaru is all wheel drive in a smaller vehicle. EVs are just better for these cases. Between this and the subsidy that Sam mentioned, it is hard to see how they compete. Japan is capable of great unity of purpose when they get aligned behind one picture. However, I just don’t see where unity is going to save them, when profit is missing.
Mazda is going Plasma they like being different
Phew, I can’t see how such a problem in Japan will not impact on the whole world
No longer a big enough part of the whole to matter that much. Its output would be swiftly compensated somewhere else.
In the UK we send only £6b of exports to Japan from a total of £760 billion so it wont affect UK directly
@@winstoncat6785 Do they make anything the world really needs? Cars - no, plenty of alternatives. Were they the supplier of that magic black 'plastic' that encases most IC's?, There was a factory fire many years ago that kind of stuffed the electronics industry for a while.
@@paulstubbs7678 Japan is the number 1 exporter of Hentia
Japan is one of Australia’s biggest trading partner but as we supply a lot of coal and iron ore in exchange for a lot of cars. If Japan has a collapse in their auto industry it will have serious effects in Australia. Toyota is easily the biggest car seller in Australia and a major sponsor of our football and cricket. Their reliability is legendary in country where that really matters. So it’s not just the economy , it is stronger than that ,it’s culturally going to affect both countries.🤔🚗🏏🏉
If a company fails, it's bad. If a country fails, it's a disaster. I hope Japan works this out.
Th whole economy Issa sinkin ship because of Japanese hard head Snead that after investing BBBILLIONS ON HYDROGEN 3 yrs ago they’ve got to start mass production of electric vehicles SOON
Santa is the loser CEO of a toy company failing so badly he has to give away his toys to poor children and immigrants. It’s a disaster. Not very smart. Very sad.
@Pinoy Open Source Graphic Designer This is total NUTS, maybe they should just give the nations keys to China. (come and take us - we give up)
Maybe Japan embraced hydrogen as it was the closest to petrol in form (goes in a tank, burns like regular fuel), again old-farts half asleep, zero effort thinking.
Self inflicted with the help of usa
Their people deserve better
the bankruptcy issue is the one no mainstream media channel likes to talk about
I wonder how many financial managers are shitting themselves at the moment as they look at the long term prospects of ICE auto makers. Either that or they are about to hit their retirement option button.
Media dare not talk about the risk of insolvency lest they risk losing ad revenue from auto manufacturers
I think this is spot on. Bravo Sam.
Japan plays the race card 😂 the insanity.
😂😂
I think culture is important to them as much as anything
A government can only bail out a company which manufactures products for which there is a demand. The demand for ICE vehicles is evaporating, for hybrids too.
So the best the Japanese govt can do is to settle the automotive companies' debts. If the debt is to the Japanese Central Bank, then they could write off the debt. I don't know what the consequence would be.
As for Toyota (and the others), the govt could finance a restart of a company which can develop EVs and manufacture them. That is going to cost an enormous amount and many years.
the buildup of evs is slow.
the fall of ice is faster.
the total numbers on the streets are slowly falling.
changes in sales are growing in speed.
When I was a child in the 1950s and the 1960s there were still plenty of things being delivered by horse and cart to people's homes daily
in Adelaide and Renmark. At my home in Adelaide these included milk at 5am and fresh bread at 1pm. At Renmark backyard toilet buckets were replaced daily also. All the full buckets were placed on a cart pulled by a horse!
Japan's public debt is mostly owned by Japanese. It's not that big problem. Japan has huge net international credit. Financially its position is far better than Australia. Japan's real problem is that she cannot keep up with global technology shift and thus loses industrial competitiveness. Japan's problem applies to Germany as well. Germany simply has too many car companies. Digitalization and electrification of cars will be a big challenge for German car companies.
“In the same way a crackhead becomes addicted to crack,” this had me screaming. He really said it w/ a straight face.
What comes first? The crackhead or the crack?
@@TheBooban The chicken.
As much as this is an opinion piece this video contains so much truth that will be born out in facts in time. Great video Sam, Thanks 😊
It is not Elon’s doing causing the bankrupt risks. It is failures by other CEOs to not understand the inevitable and act with sufficient urgency. Tesla have been so completely open about their plans which should not have been such a surprise when they achieved them. Complacency (unwarranted at that) is what their problems were, and still are in many cases.
I always want to take a contrarian point of view to these kinds of analyses. But, I find it near-impossible to make a case against what you are saying. Japan is in enormous trouble from where I'm looking. This will be existential within 5 years.
I would take what Elon Musk says with a grain of salt considering it comes from someone who is being voted by almost 60% of it's users to step down as CEO of a company he just took over, and is offloading Tesla shares like no tomorrow at a time where the share is down 60% YTD lol
Japan needs to be at atleast 10% EV's now with plans well underway for massive growth, otherwise take the auto industry over there and flush it down the toilet.
@@Outsider.Reviews nothing wrong with using public polling to decide your leaders, you don’t believe in democracy? Also he had Tesla stock as collateral to pay for twitter, so he is legally bound to sale it as Tesla stock prices lower
I find this statement both refreshing and unlikely "I always want to take a contrarian point of view"
Great points and analysis Sam.... Frightening, I guess it will cost a lot less to visit Japan soon ⁉
I am sorry, but a great analysis starts with using facts and NOT fictions. though he does make some interesting points, but he often mixes up facts with fiction…In particular regarding the Japanes economy….
@@viktorkatona7521 Could you expand on why?
@@winstoncat6785 for instance, manufacturing represents c. 20% of the Japanese GDP and NOT 89%! That changes things substantially re. his points on the Japanese economy.
@@viktorkatona7521 that is still 1 trillion dollar wiped out. 3x more than the evergrand debt
@@Rex-ww4cw The point remains he was way off and therefore misleading. This really should lower trust on any future stated 'facts,' I still find his channel informative and entertaining but simply put, don't believe everything you hear. People with good intentions and varying success in research, make mistakes. The video rate will likely do this more to Sam.
Those numbers are positively frightening for Japan, they appear to be on the brink of a massive economic disaster and seem to be standing there with fingers in ears going "la, la, la". For Toyota to have that level of debt and no realistic plan to avoid insolvency is criminal mismanagement I would have thought.
“89% of Japan's GDP comes from manufacturing." What is your source, please? My understanding is that number is approx. 20%.
The companies you list include at least one tyre company. My bet is that car tyres will continue to sell regardless of whether the cars are petrol, electric or even steam. Same goes for air bags, seat belts, head lights and car seats.
The problem is Lucid and Rivian are still loosing money on each vehicle.
Never thought we would ever talk about crack on this channel but here we are...
Crackhead more like
!!!!!!!!!😀
I have seen many better companies than Lucid go bankrupt.Legancy automakers will slowly follow.Team Japan is fighting to keep ICE vehicles for as long as possible.
Excellent analysis! I totally agree... can't wait!
They are properly called “Stranded Assets”, as they have no value any longer.. The Oil & Gas industry has the same issue, millions listed as “assets” for Oil Reserves, that will never be brought up to be refined.. the best place for that oil is exactly where it is, underground.
it is sort of fun watching the slow trainwreck
very well documented... great overview of Japan's almost impossible challenges ahead! And Japan is my favorite country on the planet, I wish them well.
Thank you very much!
Clearly you have no obligation to answer this question, but why the "8304" after your name? Were there 8303 Michael Calmeyer Hentschels who took the handle before you on UA-cam? Just curious.
Top 5 car models replaced by new Tesla’s by American owners was Toyota. Bmw, honda x2, and Nissan. 2019 data. Proves your point well!
EV's do not provide a profit stream down the line for the manufacturer and dealers as ICE cars. High cost EV's where virtually no profits at sale and little profits servicing and parts.
You're right. Tesla is a tech company for that reason. 2nd, Tesla cost to buy are higher for that reason. Henry Ford wanted to sell the business to GM provided he could keep the backend.
Monthly subs for premium connectivity from ~80%(?) is a glorious revenue stream.
If gm or Ford were getting $100 a year from 80% of the cars they've sold, what would their financials look like?
@@andrewsaint6581 I agree. Tesla makes the dollars upfront. If you own 1 for 15 years the cost per year is lower compared to ICE. 10 years ICE needs a rebuild. With batteries there is always residual value. 20 years out and that can be repurposed. So Tesla's business gets the backend revenue stream and the owner gets a product which stays current maintains value. Over time I think the trend is our friend.
6:38
Leccy cars will still need the grubby black donuts made by Yokohama Rubber. 🤣
Until last week, I was quietly reserved about how long it will take for people to stop buying ICE cars. When I talk to friends, they are still in ICE car thinking mode.
But last week I did some calcs as I prepare to take delivery of a Tesla Model 3. I had previously thought the cost of ownership would be a bit more than replacing my 10yo car with a 5 yo car.
I was wrong, a Tesla works out more than 2x cheaper than owning and running a 5yo Subaru Outback!!
I was shocked. So I ran the numbers on a model Y vs our 18yo Toyota Prado. CRAZY - Prado costs more than 2x Model Y over then next 7 years.
Far out, we can run two model Y's for one old Prado.
Tesla's also work out way cheaper than Hybrid Camry, Rav4 etc too.
Ok so a model Y is not a replacement for a Prado in terms of 4WD, towing caravan etc. But at 2x the cost, I can rent a 4WD for holidays and still be ahead.
Contributing to the amazing numbers is the fact that the Oz Gov is waiving FBT tax and other tax breaks for EVs.
So, maybe Viking, you're right about people not wanting ICE cars any more!
Welcome to th new reality knowledge of electric transportation assistance to the transition to renewable energy and sustainable living for future generations consciousness
I HOLD ELON MUSK AND TH TESLA TEAM FULLY RESPONSIBLE FOR IMPROVING TH UNIVERSE WE reside in . Th future is amazing limitless energy abundance battery storage not needed
I've had my Tesla 4 for years. October 1st 2021 I got an app that tracked gas savings.
Anyway, it takes the rate of electricity your paying from your electric company, then figures how much you've saved in gasoline by calculating average gas price for your area.
I've saved over $2,500.00 in gas since October 1st 2021.
Lmao I lost it at the Nokia :)
Your spot on, this crash is coming fast and hard for Japan, they've had their chance to turn things around a decade ago and missed it. The roads of generational disruptive transformation are always lined with the bones of the incumbents.
I'm amazed at your perception!
Legacy carmakers should stop building ice cars now! As we are coming closer to 2035 ice cars will devaluate at a fast rate!
Guess again.
Sadly the debt bomb extends far further than the car industry. Japan are world leaders in indebtedness. In fact the whole world has maxed out the credit card 😱
Your statement at 5:50 that 89% of Japanese GDP comes from manufacturing is way wrong.
Like all first world nations, Japan's GDP is dominated by the services sector at ~70% of GDP. The balance is industry (of which manufacturing is a component), and ~1% agriculture. Of the Industry sector, manufacturing makes up around 18% of Japan's total GDP.
Rivian won’t go bankrupt first. It is being managed reasonably. Saudi’s likely will keep Lucid going. You are right in your analysis.
If Lucid keep losing money, Saudi Arabia is not stupid enough to keep it running
There is not anywhere near enough electrical generation capacity to charge EVs on a large scale. There are few planned plants, and it’s nearly impossible to obtain a permit. Electric transport is very inefficient as well. These are major headwinds, at least for the US and EU.
Brilliantly Explained and thought out! Nice one mate!
It gets even worse for Japan as they have an ageing population. Not only are they dramatically short of workers but they are short of consumers, at least the age group who will be buying cars. On top of this demographic time bomb, the automakers are wasting billions on developing hydrogen powered vehicles, which, as we all know, is a total dead end.
TSLA below $140 today. Looks like heading to $100. Where is the bottom on TSLA?
The Japanese tyre manufacturers should be fine.
we already have bailed out nearly all car manufacturers. why would it be different this time
Elon Musk is to the 2000's what Henry Ford was the 1900's.
No that’s Wang Chuanfu
But with 2 major differences. Ford made car ownership AFFORDABLE and was highly PROFITABLE. TESLA is neither. Tesla posted its first ever profit in 2020 after 17 years in business, and then only because of selling carbon credits to other vehicle manufacturers. So I say BULLSHIT BWANA to your comparison.
Elon is on heigh dossage of artificial testosterone shots... Reason for his erratic behavior. WWE superstar Christ bennout killed his family and himself due to psychotic episode caused by abnormally heigh testosterone dossage.
X 99
No. He’s not. He didn’t do anything for his companies, all the boards at his companies hate him cus he tweets too much
Great analyzing of the disruption. Can you cover the automobile Valley of Death and the technology adoption curve. I pull up these graphs to naysayers plus the Tony Seba's 2 photos of NYC in 1900 and 1915 to illustrate the doubters around me and ask them to show me refuting graphs of theirs.
The gap between horses and ICE is a lot bigger than the gap between ICE and EV. The EV transition is starting to look like it will take longer than I thought. If the prices of batteries come down enough, that would help a lot. Higher energy density and better cold weather performance would help too.
@@incognitotorpedo42 the higher battery prices due to lithium spot prices will have battery manufacturers look for alternatives like sodium iron phosphate or the lithium manganese iron phosphate as it uses less lithium than lithium iron phosphate batteries.
@@incognitotorpedo42 fuel prices jumped 30 cents per gallon overnight, refineries shut down due to freezing weather.
Japan did not invent the ICE vehicle, they just perfected the production of it, I would not count them out so quick
I think that the biggest part of the problem is not just a lack of planning but poor timing. ICE car manufacturers seem to believe that it is going to be cenuries before EVs outsell ICE which does not appear to be the case. There in lies the question. When will EV cars outsell ICE and what are the manufacturers, largely Japanese going to do when they do. It's like believing that the Titanic was not only unsinkable but that even if it got hit by a missile, it would take years to sink.
Check out the Deficit Myth by Stephanie Kelton. The idea of high debt to GDP as problematic is problematic. It’s based on antiquated notions of economics. This doesn’t mean that Japanese car makers going bankrupt won’t hurt their economy, however, the idea that Japan’s debt to GDP is extreme and that this has put their economy in peril somehow is incorrect. Part of the reason Japan thrives currently is thanks to its high debt to GDP ratio. In a country with it’s own currency, as long as government spending doesn’t spur inflation, citizens benefit. Japan does not suffer from inflation, so the fact that the government has invested more in its people than it has usurped from them makes it a stronger society. Once this is understood, world economics becomes a bit less mysterious.
Meanwhile Japan’s bullet train, another modern miracle, marvel of engineering, IS electric
They DID go bankrupt 40 years ago building out the shinkansen network. JNR was privatised and broken up into 7 separate companies. US$500 billion in debts was transferred to the national budget. Enough to build Trump's wall 8 times over.
A 7 bil auto plant becomes a 10 million warehouse when it stops building cars
Excellent video! Fairly new to this site and have found myself " Binge" watching these videos. Explaining the impending doom for Totota - etc, with numbers
is not an easy thing to do while making it interesting! Keep up the great work!
Glad you like them!
A great analysis, well presented.
The contribution of the manufacturing sector to Japans GDP is 20% not 80%. Like most other advanced countries the majority of Japan's economy comes from services.
European countries' automakers are also carrying massive debt, steadily loseing ICE sales whilst gaining very little traction vs Tesla. For starters. Now the Chinese companies, chiefly BYD have begun their ramp-up.
Mercedes $126B, BMW $177B, VW $493B. Who's going to write their loans? At what rates given the risk? Whilst interest rates are rising and recession mounting?
Only Tesla with its huge margins can afford to lower prices and still make 5-7x margins vs legacy automakers.
You have done your research well Sam, I ran some numbers and you are pretty well on point. Very good video and summary of what is about to become of the Japanese automaker’s,very sad but it is what it is. What is the answer? I guess time will tell.
Thanks Mate!
Ideally they would pivot and do something amazing and unexpected. However they are old (relative to population) and becoming a smaller population. Perhaps they will get off the craving for more crap and endless pursuit of money and live better lives than the rest of us. I guess for that to happen their population needs to more than halve.
It’s ironic that the worlds biggest and best electronics makers for decades failed to adopt electrification of automobiles 🚙……
Not sure if it's ironic, but it's definitely a head scratcher.
There is one problem with your analysis and that is that Honda, Yamaha, Kawasaki and other big Japanese companies make products other than vehicles and could transition away from making cars in the scale they are doing now. Also some of the companies you mention are tire companies and last I checked EV drive using tires. Japan's national debt is a big problem and that has serious impact on Japan's economy going forward.
Why would Chinese or Tesla use Japanese parts even if their cars do need parts?
Parts makers sell best to domestic. If Toyota, Honda and Nissan stop buying, they won't suddenly win all the orders from others.
If TSLA does well in the middle of a recession/depression, then TSLA will become like a black hole into which any business remotely competing with it will be absorbed into it. Investors know Tesla will succeed. They will look for a safe refuge for their money. The clock is ticking and anyone not onboard soon is going to deeply regret missing the boat.
I've stocked enough parts to keep my ICE vehicle going for decades; as long as fuel is available.
Sam, I do think Musk understands supply chains better than you. The ripples in the supply chain has global effects. He also went through a recession and survived it without going bankrupt unlike GM. FORD is in a worse state. The market is more competitive than ever and RIVIAN has way too complicated of an EV too make and won’t be profitable at current prices. They are also small unit variants like the model S and Model X.
Oh come on !
There is no supply chaine shortage !
It's all artificial !
Just because a few ships got stuck in the Suez Canal for a few weeks the whole world wide "just in time production broke down for years ?
That's nonsense !
I think that Japan' s problem is deeper than this. A third of the population is in their retirement years. Less people to do work and likely less purchases of manufactured goods across the board. Health care use will go up and you could see an importation of workers in that field.
Good call Sam it’s the owners of lucid and Rivian that will keep those cool vehicles from becoming extinct
good point..the Jap s especially vulnerable to the down fall of their ICE industry..
I agree. One issue I feel is that investing in the Japanese stock market is almost impossible for a foreign private investor, the only option is Japanese funds and all the funds that I've looked at seem to have Toyota as their largest holding. For this reason I have never invested in Japan. I do hope that Japan succeeds, they are a hard working people who make fantastic and high quality products, but their companies are very conservative, driven by an overtly conservative management and resistant to change.
EVs just aren't doing that well in the US. Ford makes money on ICE vehicles but loses money on EVs. Every aspect of Sam's analysis is based on the unsupported theory that EVs are going to take over. However sales in the world's largest car market, (The US) do not yet show that.
I think we need to factor the following into the discussion.
Japan makes Ev drive, motors , EV batteries,Bridgestone tyres work on both ICE and ev vehicles AND IS OEM for many US manufacturers. It is also worth remembering how many countries do not have the grid capacity to cope will full electrification of vehicle fleets.
Love your work and passionate bias .it's healthy
Grid capacity isn't really a problem for transportation. It's a problem for heating (particularly in colder climates). But it takes 20 years to roll over the U.S. fleet and the average miles/vehicle is about 25 per day. That's about and extra 8.3 KW/day added to the electric grid per person Or think of it as about 250KW / month. The typical household electric bill is about 1MW/month. But we're only rolling over 1/20th of the fleet per year. So we're really adding about 12.45 KW/household/year or about 1.2% of the electric grid per year. So it isn't as huge a problem as we often think. But if we do nothing it will creep up on us.
japan is not china
china has stuff japan can only dream of
huge market
huge reserves
Huge company conglomerates
none of japan's conglomerates even compare
Oh and toyota and softbank are on the brink of bankurpcy.
I was thinking about this as the automatic Tesla taxi dropped me off at the hyperloop.
🙂
The hyperloop **IS** made up of Tesla taxis, traveling slowly in a narrow tunnel, each with a human driver, because Tesla's FSD is not FSD.
It would have been better if they had simply bought 4 BYD electric buses.
This is a brilliant report. Why is no one else talking about this?!?
I love your new background lighting.
Japan generally and the automakers in particular, are suffering from "Paradigm Lock". This is an inability to see outside the current paradigm and to bend facts to stay within i But the real world has changed. There is no going back. They need a visionary leader in parliament and to get rid of Toyoda immediately. Will this happen? I doubt it - and the consequences will be dire.
Some industries are too big to fail. The us government has bailed out us automakers so many times why wouldn't the Japanese government do the same. If I were a betting man they'll probably only get money if they switch fully to EVs
The only reason Tesla can claim to be successful
Tesla’s stock is down 65% as of today and leading investors are pointing their fingers at Musk. Talking about who Musk will disrupt might include his own company, wouldn’t you say? And, by the way, Musk’s share in the company is down to 13% following several stock sell offs. The notion he will no longer be CEO is not so far-fetched anymore.
The first companies to get into trouble will be those foreign companies making ICE cars in China.
Chinese customers have lots of choice with cheap electric cars plus its government backing EV's.
The next country to have problems will be Germany. Their expensive cars will have competition from Tesla in Europe.
VW make cars in both Germany and China.
the fed keeps raising the cost of lending money (interest rate increases) and of course inflation of products (deflating the power of the dollar), because of the horrific spending for weapons, and war fronts around the world.
Japan gov won't let such big company go bust,same like gm in US. Btw I've heard that all new houses in Japan must have SOLAR panels so somethings cooking there.
You are right that the disruption of the ICE industry by Tesla and now China's EVs as well is much bigger than Henry Ford's disruption of the horse and buggy industry. However, you've still greatly understated the degree of disruption globally. The disruption globally includes not just the ICE auto manufacturing and servicing related industries, but the even larger vested interest globally in oil and the entire fossil fuel industry. To quantify the disruption of just the oil and natural gas industries, you need to understand that the valuation of just today's "proven" reserves IN THE GROUND carried on the financial books as assets of the major oil and gas producers amounts to more than $30 Trillion!!!
Bridgestone and Yokohama? Last time I looked EVs need tyres too.
Not from Japan
@@door1479 of course not. They are worldwide name brands that don't just get used on Japanese cars. There was also an electrical company in the list. Obviously they're in trouble as people switch to electric cars....oh wait. I assume Sam is invested in Tesla due to his outlandish bias and willingness to believe everything that Musk hypes. Pity they don't pay dividends. Should invest in the copper, lithium and cobalt mining infrastructure that will be needed for the big switch. Only one problem...it doesn't exist!
EV has the energy stored and you cannot take extra energy with you, a normal car can extend its range by a couple of jerrycan of fuel in the back of your car. Australia I would not go in to rural areas with a EV.
Which companies have the greatest amount of entropy in culture, assets, employee and financial obligations?
You cannot take this id¡ot seriously... Japan's GDP is 19% manufacturing, not 89% as he's claiming...
Correct. It is around 20%….i dont get it. How can you make such a crazy statement without even having a glance on the actual statistics??? Services itself is c. 32% of GDP….
he is known to make stuff up
@@jonthemagicmelon4726 ok, you might say 39% or perhaps 49% if you really wanna push it. But NOT 89%!!! Japan is one of the most developed countries in the world. In these economies manufacturing represents a relatively small proportion of the economy. In the US it is getting close to 10%!!!
The "The Electric" dude that's why he's bias against gas vehicle DUDE!
@@viktorkatona7521 I watch because he occasionally makes a good point, amongst unbelievably drawn-out drivel and wildly inaccurate non-sense.
Oh by the way, the south addition to the Giga Texas building is a massive computer center with externally mounted heat exchanger on the east end of the extension. Definitely not manufacturing with all the floor to ceiling glass walls.
That chameleon really ties the room together
The picture on the right looks like a colon.... wish he would change it.
Japan does not have the electrical infrastructure to go all electric. They know that ice cars is more practical for their geographic situation for now.
Welcome back Froggy. 😀
Hundreds of new power plants should be under construction right now to support an electric car future. It's just not happening. California has already had to tell electric car owners not to charge their cars. Because there was insufficient electric power available.
If something isn't done about this, it will delay the transition to electric vehicles for decades.
This is a car crash in slow motion for Japan. I hear they are going as a nation down the Hydrogen route and surly this will pay off at some point as 40% of cars have no off road parking for EV charging such as in the UK. We don't all live in Ramsay Street!
Ramsay Street.
Hydrogen is dead for World WiDE Market use. #Toyota still has not received that memo just yet.
Toyota is still pouring Billions into Hydrogen and now they discovered this thing called Green🟢Hydrogen.
Having BYD making Toyota's all Electric Cars for Toyota is a very bad joke.
Magnetic charging without cables is the answer to future charging?
Hydrogen is, energy wise, the most stupid fuel for any normal car.
The reason can be found on canals as Tesla Bjorn and Engineering explained.
And is simply inefficiency in the H2 cycle. Where a battery will have an efficiency of 90 to 98 % (depending on how fast you charge and some other parameters in the battery self...any car driven with H2 will have an efficiency of less than 25%...one reasonm is the energy loss because compression is needed for refuelling or cryo tmeperatures are needed. Both taking too much energy.
When using hydrogen without cooling to liquid or compressing to 800bar or more can be about 50%.
It''s a reasonable energy source for producing steel (replacing cokes (coals).
Also when weight is a major issue (planes) it could be iusefull.
Most important for efficient energy use is creating the infrastructure that cars can charge at every parking place....at least when all cars are ev's. Charging can be slow mostly due to the daily usage of cars on average. Only a few KWH needed every night.
@@simonpannett8810 Not impossible....important to rediuce transmission losses. It would be like cooking on induction...but using the energy to charge instead of heating. And one "induction" plate would deliver enough energy to charge most cars overnight...
Historically incorrect. Horse and carts were replaced by Electric vehicles and then were subsequently replaced by combustion engines.
Just because Japan is a heavy automotive economy doesn’t mean all the jobs disappear with EVs. Factories can be retrofitted. There are growing pains but these companies will make the shift.
SONY and the other electronic giants were amazing, everyone had Japanese TVs, DVDs, VHS, Stereos, etc... and now? I don't think I have a single Japanese product anymore... they lost the electronic revolution to streaming and are about to lose the electrification next...
Even if lucid sold their cars for 600k they still wouldn’t be profitable
I mentioned the problem with switching to electric cars 40+ years ago with a college instructor. The US wouldn't go for it then as the unions would have a fit with job losses due to the use of so much fewer parts using electric motors versus ICE. There are about 20 parts in an electric motor and about 1000 parts in an ICE. I believe Japan is just sitting back right now as is Toyota, waiting for better battery technology. The demand for Lithium is a major factor but other sources of battery power will develop and then the Japanese will jump in. Panasonic will up their production when Tesla switches. Since Toyota already has the Prius and other Hybrids it won't be that hard to remove ICE motor and rely totally on battery packs. Whether the Japanese can switch that quickly will be the problem.
They certainly are in denial. The management by consensus can lead to group think, which can be very damaging to the future health of the organization.
Wished I knew where you got the gecko with glasses picture. Love it and the work that you do to keep people focused on what’s important.
i think it's ikea
debt of Japan from my point of view was caused by them not letting their long dysfunct business (zombie companies) to fail, their used to be short-term pain had now become a full-blown cancer