@@ThisisFred-dt4mqReally? It’s far too positive for Ukraine, and the entire video is peppered with ifs, coulds and woulds…that ain’t gonna happen. The only two valid remarks he made were that NATO underestimated how competent Russia is, and that the much vaunted NATO strategy of manoeuvre warfare was a failure 😂 He dismisses Russia’s attritional warfare as being unsophisticated, but then says Ukraine failed at manoeuvre warfare and its strategy is now attritional warfare focusing on Russian artillery…so all those NATO geniuses have taken 15 months to realise overwhelming artillery power and superior air power cannot be defeated by manoeuvre warfare tactics, this isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan.
Sure, if you pick just the parts that suit your narrative and present them accordingly, then of course the pieces will fall into place. Confirmation bias at its best.😅
Important to understand the significance of not having airpower with the consequential knock-on effects of having to resort to a more attritional type of warfare, at least at first.
Extremely well said, as usual, Anders. You're right. Unfortunately, it has slowly become readily apparent that casual observers simply do not understand the importance of air superiority when it comes to modern warfare. Particularly as it pertains to an offensive being waged against a military that has had a chance to implement any sort of defensive planning. In this type of scenario, barring any form of air superiority, expecting any iteration of a "quick breach" or "swift victory" is completely irrational. And the US is very aware of this fact. Had they gotten the ball rolling on providing them with proper air support many months ago, Ukraine wouldn't be facing nearly as many issues and their offensive would have looked a lot more like it did in the commercial advertisements designed to encourage western superpowers to provide them with the appropriate assistance they ultimately didn't receive in time. Honestly, if it wasn't so goddamn tragic, it would actually be a bit comical how Putin's spurious nuclear rhetoric always seems to keep the US/NATO a few months behind schedule when it comes to granting vital and/or essential assistance.
The plan never was Ukraine victory, nobody except completely deluded peabrains ever thought Ukraine could win. The plan was just to kill as many Russians as possible without ever counting Ukrainian losses. Ukrainians are literally used as cannon fodder, it's a disgusting tragedy.
But the first step is rolling back IADS if you want an effective air campaign. Do yo think if we just gave Ukrainians aircraft they would magically know how to do the SEAD mission effectively? It's a challenge for the US.
The US was aware that the counter offensive would fail without air superiority, and still didn't provide them with air superiority..... So ....what is the the US doing? They are trying to walk by moving both feet at once.
@@major__kongyou said the same thing about artillery. Then you said the same thing about missiles. Then you said the same thing about tanks. Face it, they can learn, they can do it. The Ukrainians have kept proving themselves capable time and time again.
For historical perspective, Caen is slightly less than 20 km from Juno Beach in Normandy. The Canadian Army was originally expected to liberate Caen on D-Day. In reality it took over six weeks. And this with complete air superiority and overwhelming fire support from naval vessels.
Not only air superiority (think having 150 planes against the enemies' 100), there was air supremacy (like having 3000 against 20). And it still took that long...
The most readily available comparison we have is Desert Storm, and before the US and UK put boots on the ground, the air campaign lasted five weeks, featured well over 2000 aircraft flying over 100.000 sorties, and almost 300 Tomahawk missiles with a range of 1000 miles. What Ukraine has doesn't even scratch the surface of that. Plus, Desert Storm was to liberate Kuwait, a country three times smaller than the area of Ukraine Russia is occupying, plus, that was occupied by Iraq, which had much smaller stockpiles than Russia does - and stockpiles matter in attritional war. Expecting Ukraine to pull of something like Desert Storm is ridiculous, because they are trying to break through fortified enemy lines without significant air support, which is pretty the hardest operation you can ask an army do.
Absolutely, clearly thought out and presented, well done. There is one factor that Ukraine is using that minimises the negative impact of the lack of close air support, That is the use of numerous cheap drones working directly with mobile artillery units. That provides metre accurate targeting to fixed or mobile artillery, any shell from which can destroy a tank with one shot. My guess is that artillery forces around the world are paying very close attention.
I was very surprised when reading up on Desert Storm, and the following invasion in 2003, that both of them had very extensive air campaigns that lasted for weeks before the flashy ground invasion started.
@@nicktecky55 By its own account, Ukraine currently "consumes" 10,000 small drones per month. Actually, they all come from China and China does not want to supply any more in the future. This will be a huge problem for Ukraine.
Yet this was exactly what 'experts' like that General Rogers fellow that CNN and the British propagandists have on all the time said we should expect. They literally said Crimea would be 'liberated' by the end of summer. Welll, its mid summer now and the Ukrainians haven't even gotten past the Russian 'crumple zone'.
You can't give Ukraine the aid it needs AFTER it needed it and expect results. You need to supply them ahead of time so they have the capability on hand.
Absolutely agree. I feared this from feb '22 onward, that the west would slowly seek to bleed the russians over a lengthy period of time. I hope thats not the case.
You have to state the obvious because all you hear is Ukraine's summer offensive has stalled. Someone in the US Defense is think 'We need to bleed the Russians white, who gives a rats about the Ukrainians, it's not about Ukraine winning.'
Great analysis. This makes good sense, but I wish we would have just given the Ukrainians what they needed to have a successful summer offensive up front.
The US kicked off the ground phase of the Gulf War firing 90,000 artillery rounds in 2.5 hours. That's 22 days of ammo for Ukraine. And on Day 500 of the war the Europeans promised they will order more ammo for Ukraine soon. Probably before Christmas.
Know what Anders? You're awesome! Factual and to the point, not sweetening, not spicing, going neutral(we Swedes love that). You say "this is what we know" and "this is what I think", clear lines between facts and your own thoughts/assumptions etc. 👍Explaining things in an easily understandable way that is not "too basic" nor "too academic", qualified layman's terms so to say, as people knowledgeable and comfortable on the subject are able to! Sadly the subject of your talks is something I wished wasn't a reality, but still I look forward to your sober reporting when they appear. Many thanks for your great work! 👍
I don't think he is "neutral" as to the outcome of the war, he would clearly prefer a Ukrainian victory. But he doesn't let his desire for Ukraine to win to cloud his perspective.I think the correct term is being "objective", rather than "neutral".
Such a large proportion of reporting about the war in Ukraine is propaganda, misinformation, non-news, unrealistic, impossible. Your analysis always feels relevant and as accurate as it can be. Thank you for your contribution.
@@user-mq1up2fw4rI don't think Putin would accept. He'd pretend he wants that, then create some false flag to keep going until gets that last gas field above Odessa.
Thanks for your work. Being a former soldier myself I came very much to the same conclusions you did. Especially your point about attrition warfare normally beeing before maneuver warfare is something that even former comrades of mine disagreed on. Because they never did it. The guys with the wings on their chest did. Over all things this war teached me is, that figthing a war in a NATO force is still war - but on easy mode. You constantly operated from a perspective of air supremacy and fire superiority. But you're way better at articulating it in a simple and convincing way than I will ever be.
They're still extremely incompetent. It just doesn't require a whole lot of ingenuity to put up solid defenses against a military with no effective air support. The main underlying issue here is air superiority. And the US is extremely aware of this fact. Had we gotten the ball rolling on providing them with appropriate air support many months ago -- Ukraine wouldn't be facing any of these issues and their offensive would have essentially been a cakewalk. Unfortunately, when national and global politics are being used as an excuse to avoid making obvious and/or morally proper decisions ... this is what you end up with.
to be fair: Russia uses STILL frontal meat wave tactics with extensive losses and no ground gained and captured Russian defenders complain they were simply left alone without supplies or orders. Such a defense really does not require that much comptence. We will see how the Russians fare in defense when there is a Ukrainian breakthrough and Russia has to swiftly adapt.
@@Grimshak81 Stop this nonsense. No one uses frontal meat wave tactics, in fact the last time it was used was during the first VH by the Russians in the Burosilov offensive. In addition, since they had successfully blown apart the artillery and trench system of the Monarchy before that, it was a complete success.
@@valeriesolanas4077 Jo, det er objektivt. Hans analyse er ikke farvet af, at Anders P.N. ønsker at bakke op om folkeretten. Dine påstande fremstår nærmest som spam, når de ikke er underbyggede på nogen måde.
@@jensstergard9380 Skal vi ikke bare være enige om som den store leder sagde: russia is losing the war in Iran. Og nu melder de sig squ ind i BRICS. Attero dominaus.
@@valeriesolanas4077 Nobody has promised you this episode would be an analysis. Anders Puck Nielsen kindly shared his point of view on various locations in the Ukraine theater.
@@richardhack9830 I always appreciate peoples point of view. But here we are talking about analysis. Anders provide pep talk and not analysieses. And as spokesman for the conscripted (during the napolian wars:)...anders wouldn't live long ...trying to drag privates in to suicidal action while he is wawing his leftenant pistol. If FA claims to be a scientical institute I don't think they live up to thee stanard- But off course...compared to all the amercan think-thanks FA might have something to offer
@@valeriesolanas4077Well, here's my analysis for this moment: "Im Osten nichts Neues" or "All quiet on the eastern front". (Converted from Erich Maria Remarque) 😉
As always, thank you. Very valuable insights that continue to illuminate the reality of this war, and providing consideration about future conflicts as well.
Appreciate the clear & sober analysis of Mr Nielsen. I haven't read each of the nearly 1000 comments but a sampling of them revealed an intelligent and engaged public with serious points of view. Most or nearly all comment fields at other sites are filled with unreadable emotive dreck. Kudos to the serious participants in the conversation! One point I would like to add, and I am concerned about this: attritional warfare can only be conducted for an extended period if the munitions expended are being replaced by manufactured restocking armaments. To date, no nation sending material to Ukraine out of existing stocks is replenishing those stocks, and I understand that many of the munitions being sent are no longer in production. For example, the number of ShadowStorms in the UK arsenal was estimated at 1000...only a fraction of that number is now scheduled for Ukraine, and they are not being manufactured any more. I am afraid that the muddled and not well-thought-out supply chain to Ukraine will crash and burn before the Russians are driven out. The more I think about this the more pessimistic I become.
Yes, the situation is very problematic. Just a month into the full scale invasion, the then Swedish defence minister sayed the defence coalition needed to discuss how to ramp up production of munitions. The calculus was aparently obvious to him already from the start. Only "good" thing is, the same applies to the Russian side. And when push comes to shove, I trust the western industrial capacity a lot more than the Russian. Things could get very tricky if China suddenly decided it somehow would favour them to support Russia. Fortunately however, I don't see any benefits for China to do so. But who knows, they might want to take a chance, and open up a second front for the west, atacking Taiwan? However, USAF inventories are HUGE! Ukraine support has only made a dent to it. Quite a lot of the stuff was sheduled to be scrapped anyway. But the rest of the free world needs to shape up - and quickly at that!
Ukraine has almost no air force. The Russians on paper HAVE a powerful air force. You NEED air superiority when you engage in a modern "offensive." Until they get F-16s, the Ukraine march will be slow. But the fact that Ukraine has made progress at all, is almost a miracle. Good reflection on the gutsy Ukraine army, working without modern jets and helicopters above their heads.
They had an airforce, but it was destroyed. They have received aircraft but most of them have also been destroyed. F16s will be no different as they have no major advantage over the sukhoi analogs they have already lost
@@frederickharris3148 They have a biig advantage in the fact the Su and their ground based radar systems can scan 400km but only fire 70km while the F16 can maybe only scan 250km but it can fire more than 150km, so the Su will have seen the F16 and either tugged it's tail or it will stay and get shot down 80km before it can shoot back.
@@beersmurff yes, because they are going to use F16s like that. You also seriously overestimate the numbers of Russian skilled pilots and planes. Not to mention Ukranian AAA is also strong where the F16s will operate. Cope more comrade!
The Russian Postal Office, recently issued a series of stamps with Putin to commemorate 500 days, but had to withdraw them because people were spitting on the wrong side of the stamp.
@@bernarddavis1050 Yes Cock snot . Here is another Putin wanted to know if Zelenskyy was still alive... Zelenskyy himself decided to send Putin a letter in his own handwriting to let him know he was still in the game. Putin opened the letter which appeared to contain a single line of coded message. 370HSSV-0773H Putin was baffled, so he emailed the message to Lukashenko, and his aides had no idea either, so they sent it to the KGB. No one could solve it at the KGB either, so a double agent sent it to the CIA, then the NSA. They also didn't know what it meant. Finally, the CIA director sent the message to The Australian Military for help. Within a few seconds, they called back with this message: "Tell that dumb wanker Putin he's holding the message upside down."
Excellent analysis as always Anders. As you say it's clear that the Ukrainians have persuaded the US that a blitzkrieg is not possible, so we are back to attrition, hence the cluster munitions that the US has said it will provide. Let's hope the politicians in the West a) appreciate this change b) can communicate this change in the war to their electorates
Thank you so much for this analysis. I was waiting for your take on the counter offensive by Ukraine. It really pulls together all the little bits of information that is coming out.
This is probably the clearest, most succinct summary of the counteroffensive I've seen so far. For those who have been watching, it's not terribly surprising, but it makes for a great Cliff's notes review. The good news is that Ukraine is being exceptionally intelligent and rethinking approaches when they should, rather than doubling down on idiocy. If anything, it's a bit much for the west to call out Russian stupidity, while engaging in similar acts ourselves. Ukraine needed air dominance over the front to pull off what we expected, yet we didn't give them anything to achieve that. Thus, expecting a Kharkiv-like advance was mind-numbingly dumb. However, it seems the UAF move back to attrition has paid off. We are already seeing signs that this strategy has allowed them to advance in areas, and it has to be pinching other areas as well.
Slavia Ukrainia ! Herojam Slava ! Anders you are so good at explaining what is going on, thank you so much ! Good to see the UAF putting pressure on the left bank of the Dnipro !
I think the fact alone that Ukraine is pushing on several fronts with minor to greater success while maintaining a bridgehead for weeks goes to show that this attritional warfare works.
It works, but it is both slow and costly in manpower and ammunition/equipment... Even without air power, but good solid amounts of long-range fires, this could be a maneuver style warfare after the cracking of the initial lines of defense. So basically what I'm saying, the USA needs to liberate the ATACAMS
Russia has at least four times the population that the Ukraine has---we don't really know for sure because the Ukrainian state hasn't been able or willing to conduct a census for 22 years.
7:15 A LOT? We have like 40 Leos and maybe 50 Bradley IFVs. That's it. This isn't a lot, this is INCREDIBLY little. To push out Germans in same lands we used THOUSANDS of tanks AND had West pushing from other direction! Westerners are deluded if they think there's one person in Ukraine who thinks this is enough.
An outstanding review. What has been really frustrating for me is to listen to so many network airheads denigrate Ukraine's efforts when it's clear that assaulting a fixed line (where they've had months(!) to prepare) is incredibly challenging. For those wanting a great overview of this, view the "Mother of all Briefings" by Norman Swartzkauf during GW1. Again, a great brief - thanks so much!
This has to be one of the best and clearest descriptions of the situation in Ukraine that I've heard.
expect he was wrong
Thank you Anders!
Wow! Such a clear explanation of what is going on with the Ukrainian effort. All the little pieces of information fall into place. Thank you!
agreed, As much as I like the fake stories about how the Russian army is about to be destroyed, It's nice to hear the truth,
Totally agree. The best analysis out there. Hats off to the Puckman
@@ThisisFred-dt4mqReally? It’s far too positive for Ukraine, and the entire video is peppered with ifs, coulds and woulds…that ain’t gonna happen. The only two valid remarks he made were that NATO underestimated how competent Russia is, and that the much vaunted NATO strategy of manoeuvre warfare was a failure 😂 He dismisses Russia’s attritional warfare as being unsophisticated, but then says Ukraine failed at manoeuvre warfare and its strategy is now attritional warfare focusing on Russian artillery…so all those NATO geniuses have taken 15 months to realise overwhelming artillery power and superior air power cannot be defeated by manoeuvre warfare tactics, this isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan.
@@ronanrogers4127 because your unsupported bravado, sracasm, and air of superiority are so much more convincing than a structurally laid out case?
Sure, if you pick just the parts that suit your narrative and present them accordingly, then of course the pieces will fall into place. Confirmation bias at its best.😅
Important to understand the significance of not having airpower with the consequential knock-on effects of having to resort to a more attritional type of warfare, at least at first.
Yeap attrition... Which one will run out faster - russian bombs or ukrainian soldiers?
It's important to understand, that the Ukrainian offensive has been a disaster so far and it will not get any better.
@@Princip666 Did Putin personally tell you this? Asking for a friend.
@@Paul-wo3qh ure talking to bots
@@alexbort3082attrition sounds machiavelic, not fit to this century
Extremely well said, as usual, Anders. You're right. Unfortunately, it has slowly become readily apparent that casual observers simply do not understand the importance of air superiority when it comes to modern warfare. Particularly as it pertains to an offensive being waged against a military that has had a chance to implement any sort of defensive planning. In this type of scenario, barring any form of air superiority, expecting any iteration of a "quick breach" or "swift victory" is completely irrational. And the US is very aware of this fact. Had they gotten the ball rolling on providing them with proper air support many months ago, Ukraine wouldn't be facing nearly as many issues and their offensive would have looked a lot more like it did in the commercial advertisements designed to encourage western superpowers to provide them with the appropriate assistance they ultimately didn't receive in time. Honestly, if it wasn't so goddamn tragic, it would actually be a bit comical how Putin's spurious nuclear rhetoric always seems to keep the US/NATO a few months behind schedule when it comes to granting vital and/or essential assistance.
The plan never was Ukraine victory, nobody except completely deluded peabrains ever thought Ukraine could win. The plan was just to kill as many Russians as possible without ever counting Ukrainian losses. Ukrainians are literally used as cannon fodder, it's a disgusting tragedy.
If everytime he brought the rhetoric up, they would attack his bunker, he wouldn't do it again. Its clear what kind of mentality he has
But the first step is rolling back IADS if you want an effective air campaign. Do yo think if we just gave Ukrainians aircraft they would magically know how to do the SEAD mission effectively? It's a challenge for the US.
The US was aware that the counter offensive would fail without air superiority, and still didn't provide them with air superiority.....
So ....what is the the US doing? They are trying to walk by moving both feet at once.
@@major__kongyou said the same thing about artillery. Then you said the same thing about missiles. Then you said the same thing about tanks.
Face it, they can learn, they can do it. The Ukrainians have kept proving themselves capable time and time again.
For historical perspective, Caen is slightly less than 20 km from Juno Beach in Normandy. The Canadian Army was originally expected to liberate Caen on D-Day.
In reality it took over six weeks. And this with complete air superiority and overwhelming fire support from naval vessels.
Yes, the German defense held extremely well until it cracked, the Falaise Gap was created and it turned into a rout. Let's hope for a repeat now.
@@markus717 But not a repeat of Market Garden...
@@sergarlantyrell7847 sadly there have been elements of Market Garden all over Ukraine.
So your saying they might reach Tokmak (sry for the spelling) in a few months, maybe…
Not only air superiority (think having 150 planes against the enemies' 100), there was air supremacy (like having 3000 against 20). And it still took that long...
Another good explanation from someone with the ability to actually explain things well.
Good...for nothing.
@@Princip666 Have you not earned enough potatoes for today Ivan?
@@johanselander7708 It looks like you confused me with someone else. Maybe lay off the drugs, that may help.
Never clicked faster on a video. Thank you for these
Keep it up Anders, great coverage
Your wartime analysis is simply the best. I look forward to your reports. Please create more🇺🇦.
G'day Anders, long time listener first time caller. I've always appreciated your big picture thank you.
Muz from Australia 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 🇩🇰
Yeah mate. How smart is this bloke? Makes the situation so much clearer.
💪🇺🇦 from 🇦🇺 also.
The most readily available comparison we have is Desert Storm, and before the US and UK put boots on the ground, the air campaign lasted five weeks, featured well over 2000 aircraft flying over 100.000 sorties, and almost 300 Tomahawk missiles with a range of 1000 miles. What Ukraine has doesn't even scratch the surface of that. Plus, Desert Storm was to liberate Kuwait, a country three times smaller than the area of Ukraine Russia is occupying, plus, that was occupied by Iraq, which had much smaller stockpiles than Russia does - and stockpiles matter in attritional war. Expecting Ukraine to pull of something like Desert Storm is ridiculous, because they are trying to break through fortified enemy lines without significant air support, which is pretty the hardest operation you can ask an army do.
Absolutely, clearly thought out and presented, well done.
There is one factor that Ukraine is using that minimises the negative impact of the lack of close air support, That is the use of numerous cheap drones working directly with mobile artillery units. That provides metre accurate targeting to fixed or mobile artillery, any shell from which can destroy a tank with one shot.
My guess is that artillery forces around the world are paying very close attention.
I was very surprised when reading up on Desert Storm, and the following invasion in 2003, that both of them had very extensive air campaigns that lasted for weeks before the flashy ground invasion started.
The Falklands War
@@nicktecky55 By its own account, Ukraine currently "consumes" 10,000 small drones per month. Actually, they all come from China and China does not want to supply any more in the future. This will be a huge problem for Ukraine.
Yet this was exactly what 'experts' like that General Rogers fellow that CNN and the British propagandists have on all the time said we should expect. They literally said Crimea would be 'liberated' by the end of summer. Welll, its mid summer now and the Ukrainians haven't even gotten past the Russian 'crumple zone'.
You can't give Ukraine the aid it needs AFTER it needed it and expect results. You need to supply them ahead of time so they have the capability on hand.
Absolutely agree. I feared this from feb '22 onward, that the west would slowly seek to bleed the russians over a lengthy period of time. I hope thats not the case.
Very much so. Glad to hear some one state the obvious. 👍🏻
You have to state the obvious because all you hear is Ukraine's summer offensive has stalled.
Someone in the US Defense is think 'We need to bleed the Russians white, who gives a rats about the Ukrainians, it's not about Ukraine winning.'
We have them everything , the west has rebuilt their army twice
Your big picture summaries are so much better than the daily hysterical stuff. Thank you
Agree.
Albeit the daily hysterical stuff has built this picture. I had come to very much the same realisation based on the daily hysterical.
I always appreciate your videos.
Comme toujours: explications claires et convaincantes ! Un véritable plaisir d' écouter A. P. Nielsen . Cheers from Belgium
How true! Thank you so much, Anders!
Very measured commentary as always - very insightful - thank you
very useful! Much appreciated! Tusend Tak!
🙏
Very nice summary, and quite close to what I'm expecting too. Hammer them until they have weak spots, THEN attack.
This is probably the best analysis I've heard so far. Subbed!
Great analysis. This makes good sense, but I wish we would have just given the Ukrainians what they needed to have a successful summer offensive up front.
You and me both.
Sukhoi jets?
Politics, money, and quid pro quo
No,, its not,, its idiotic. Its a lie. We are killing Ukrainians for profit, that is the only truth.
The US kicked off the ground phase of the Gulf War firing 90,000 artillery rounds in 2.5 hours. That's 22 days of ammo for Ukraine. And on Day 500 of the war the Europeans promised they will order more ammo for Ukraine soon. Probably before Christmas.
Know what Anders? You're awesome! Factual and to the point, not sweetening, not spicing, going neutral(we Swedes love that). You say "this is what we know" and "this is what I think", clear lines between facts and your own thoughts/assumptions etc. 👍Explaining things in an easily understandable way that is not "too basic" nor "too academic", qualified layman's terms so to say, as people knowledgeable and comfortable on the subject are able to! Sadly the subject of your talks is something I wished wasn't a reality, but still I look forward to your sober reporting when they appear. Many thanks for your great work! 👍
I don't think he is "neutral" as to the outcome of the war, he would clearly prefer a Ukrainian victory. But he doesn't let his desire for Ukraine to win to cloud his perspective.I think the correct term is being "objective", rather than "neutral".
Such a large proportion of reporting about the war in Ukraine is propaganda, misinformation, non-news, unrealistic, impossible.
Your analysis always feels relevant and as accurate as it can be. Thank you for your contribution.
But Puck's "analysis" is nothing more than "propaganda, misinformation, non-news, unrealistic, impossible". He's a joke.
Very true. This war is over and Ukraine should be striving for peace before they lose more land and Zelensky gets ousted.
@@user-mq1up2fw4rI don't think Putin would accept. He'd pretend he wants that, then create some false flag to keep going until gets that last gas field above Odessa.
Thanks Anders!
I just refuse to believe a U-tuber knows this, and that our best Generals don't ? Everything you said is Outstandingly Correct !
Tak for din analyse.
Thanks for your work. Being a former soldier myself I came very much to the same conclusions you did. Especially your point about attrition warfare normally beeing before maneuver warfare is something that even former comrades of mine disagreed on. Because they never did it. The guys with the wings on their chest did. Over all things this war teached me is, that figthing a war in a NATO force is still war - but on easy mode. You constantly operated from a perspective of air supremacy and fire superiority.
But you're way better at articulating it in a simple and convincing way than I will ever be.
Good comment. Thanks for sharing your view of the issue.
Finally, someone explained what’s going on with counteroffensive, and in a concise way!.. Thank you, Sir! 👏👏👏
Thank you Anders you make an interesting point about Manoeuvre v Attrition and the overplayed Russian incompetence.
They're still extremely incompetent. It just doesn't require a whole lot of ingenuity to put up solid defenses against a military with no effective air support. The main underlying issue here is air superiority. And the US is extremely aware of this fact. Had we gotten the ball rolling on providing them with appropriate air support many months ago -- Ukraine wouldn't be facing any of these issues and their offensive would have essentially been a cakewalk. Unfortunately, when national and global politics are being used as an excuse to avoid making obvious and/or morally proper decisions ... this is what you end up with.
to be fair: Russia uses STILL frontal meat wave tactics with extensive losses and no ground gained and captured Russian defenders complain they were simply left alone without supplies or orders.
Such a defense really does not require that much comptence. We will see how the Russians fare in defense when there is a Ukrainian breakthrough and Russia has to swiftly adapt.
@@Grimshak81 Stop this nonsense. No one uses frontal meat wave tactics, in fact the last time it was used was during the first VH by the Russians in the Burosilov offensive. In addition, since they had successfully blown apart the artillery and trench system of the Monarchy before that, it was a complete success.
Thanks, Anders.
A great analysis as usual.
Come back soon!
Sætter stor pris på dine analyser.
Brilliant as always, Mr. Nielsen. Thank you.
I really enjoy your videos! Thanks for the insightful analysis
Excellent, thorough and very well presented report. As usual! You provide TOP level analysis, Anders! Thank you!
Excellent, as usual.
Once again: thanks Anders! I so appreciate your insights and the clarity of your presentation.
Tusind tak for din professionelle og meget objektive tilgang til emnet Anders ❤️🤘🏻
Objektivt er det ikke. Det er pep talk.
@@valeriesolanas4077 Jo, det er objektivt. Hans analyse er ikke farvet af, at Anders P.N. ønsker at bakke op om folkeretten. Dine påstande fremstår nærmest som spam, når de ikke er underbyggede på nogen måde.
@@jensstergard9380 Skal vi ikke bare være enige om som den store leder sagde: russia is losing the war in Iran.
Og nu melder de sig squ ind i BRICS.
Attero dominaus.
@@valeriesolanas4077 ok Putin
@@Norseraider84 ?
Great insights into the situation and it’s context (attrition vs. manoeuvre)
Once again, incredible clarity. Thanks!
A great explanation as always Anders, clear and concise with no jingoistic propaganda just the known facts. I look forward to your next video.
Excellent video. Your insight is impressive.
Thank you, Anders Puck Nielsen for this excellent episode. Outstanding Quality.
It is pep talk, not an analysis.
@@valeriesolanas4077 Nobody has promised you this episode would be an analysis. Anders Puck Nielsen kindly shared his point of view on various locations in the Ukraine theater.
@@richardhack9830 I always appreciate peoples point of view. But here we are talking about analysis. Anders provide pep talk and not analysieses. And as spokesman for the conscripted (during the napolian wars:)...anders wouldn't live long ...trying to drag privates in to suicidal action while he is wawing his leftenant pistol.
If FA claims to be a scientical institute I don't think they live up to thee stanard-
But off course...compared to all the amercan think-thanks FA might have something to offer
@@valeriesolanas4077Well, here's my analysis for this moment: "Im Osten nichts Neues" or "All quiet on the eastern front".
(Converted from Erich Maria Remarque) 😉
Thank you very much again for providing understanding!
The maps are really useful with the explanations for people like myself who are not good at analysing the daily news re the war. Thank you.👍
Excellent summary of the situation! Thank you very much for preparing this video.
Great analysis thanks! New Zealand fan of your work.
Brilliant update and explanations
One of the few analyses I trust these days.
Poor you :)
You are making more sense than most of the analysts that I saw on the TV, lamenting about slow territorial gain.
Yours is the best commentary about the war.
As always, thank you. Very valuable insights that continue to illuminate the reality of this war, and providing consideration about future conflicts as well.
Tack så mycket för värdefull analys och information!
Another enlightning video.
Thanks for that great explanation Anders. Very clear and well informed
Etremely informative & telling wow-great update Anders.
I really appreciate your explanations and analysis, they are so good and understandable, pieces fall in to place. Keep up the good work!
Thank you. I also really appreciate you listing your sources. Have a great week.
Good job. Professor Anders. I enjoy your analysis of the current situation. Glory to Ukraine.
Appreciate the clear & sober analysis of Mr Nielsen. I haven't read each of the nearly 1000 comments but a sampling of them revealed an intelligent and engaged public with serious points of view. Most or nearly all comment fields at other sites are filled with unreadable emotive dreck. Kudos to the serious participants in the conversation! One point I would like to add, and I am concerned about this: attritional warfare can only be conducted for an extended period if the munitions expended are being replaced by manufactured restocking armaments. To date, no nation sending material to Ukraine out of existing stocks is replenishing those stocks, and I understand that many of the munitions being sent are no longer in production. For example, the number of ShadowStorms in the UK arsenal was estimated at 1000...only a fraction of that number is now scheduled for Ukraine, and they are not being manufactured any more. I am afraid that the muddled and not well-thought-out supply chain to Ukraine will crash and burn before the Russians are driven out. The more I think about this the more pessimistic I become.
Yes, the situation is very problematic. Just a month into the full scale invasion, the then Swedish defence minister sayed the defence coalition needed to discuss how to ramp up production of munitions. The calculus was aparently obvious to him already from the start. Only "good" thing is, the same applies to the Russian side.
And when push comes to shove, I trust the western industrial capacity a lot more than the Russian. Things could get very tricky if China suddenly decided it somehow would favour them to support Russia. Fortunately however, I don't see any benefits for China to do so. But who knows, they might want to take a chance, and open up a second front for the west, atacking Taiwan?
However, USAF inventories are HUGE! Ukraine support has only made a dent to it. Quite a lot of the stuff was sheduled to be scrapped anyway. But the rest of the free world needs to shape up - and quickly at that!
thanks, good analysis, cleared a lot of things up for me
Ukraine has almost no air force. The Russians on paper HAVE a powerful air force. You NEED air superiority when you engage in a modern "offensive." Until they get F-16s, the Ukraine march will be slow. But the fact that Ukraine has made progress at all, is almost a miracle. Good reflection on the gutsy Ukraine army, working without modern jets and helicopters above their heads.
An excellent clear update on the war in Ukraine. Sam from UK
How abou getting a new government in UK? They are nuts
Thank you Anders. Love your work!
Thank you Anders, for explaining these details and giving a better understanding of what's happening.
Best regards from Berlin!
Ukraine adopting a strategy of attritional warfare is as suicidal as a chess player who is down 3 pieces adopting a strategy of trading pieces.
Quality as always. I always look forward to Anders presentations. Clear and accurate analysis.
Thank you for pointing out the lack of air power that Ukraine suffers from. This should have been addressed from day one of the war.
They had an airforce, but it was destroyed. They have received aircraft but most of them have also been destroyed. F16s will be no different as they have no major advantage over the sukhoi analogs they have already lost
It's NATO's job to provide air cover.
@@frederickharris3148 They have a biig advantage in the fact the Su and their ground based radar systems can scan 400km but only fire 70km while the F16 can maybe only scan 250km but it can fire more than 150km, so the Su will have seen the F16 and either tugged it's tail or it will stay and get shot down 80km before it can shoot back.
@@frederickharris3148 lol cool story comrade! Ukraine does have an airforce still so stop with the Kremlin lies.
@@beersmurff yes, because they are going to use F16s like that. You also seriously overestimate the numbers of Russian skilled pilots and planes. Not to mention Ukranian AAA is also strong where the F16s will operate. Cope more comrade!
Spot on! Very very good summary of the situation.
The Russian Postal Office, recently issued a series of stamps with Putin to commemorate 500 days, but had to withdraw them because people were spitting on the wrong side of the stamp.
Is that your idea of a joke, toerag?
@@bernarddavis1050 Yes Cock snot .
Here is another
Putin wanted to know if Zelenskyy was still alive...
Zelenskyy himself decided to send Putin a letter in his own handwriting to let him know he was still in the game. Putin opened the letter which appeared to contain a single line of coded message.
370HSSV-0773H
Putin was baffled, so he emailed the message to Lukashenko, and his aides had no idea either, so they sent it to the KGB. No one could solve it at the KGB either, so a double agent sent it to the CIA, then the NSA. They also didn't know what it meant. Finally, the CIA director sent the message to The Australian Military for help. Within a few seconds, they called back with this message:
"Tell that dumb wanker Putin he's holding the message upside down."
Hahaha. 😂😂😂
100 points for you!
It is pretty funny! 😂
Thanks for the clarification that you give those of us who know next to nothing about warfare and different strategies. Very helpful.
This is great analysis as always. Tack så mycket Anders!
No, it is not. It is pep talk...sending thousands of young recruits to dead. Shame on you.
thank you for the lesson
Thank you Anders! Super informative video as usual!
Excellent analysis as always Anders. As you say it's clear that the Ukrainians have persuaded the US that a blitzkrieg is not possible, so we are back to attrition, hence the cluster munitions that the US has said it will provide. Let's hope the politicians in the West a) appreciate this change b) can communicate this change in the war to their electorates
Wow! So well put and insightful.
Field Marshal Nielsen, we enjoy you opinion immensely 😂
Brilliant analysis as usual.
The Ukrainians are doing a great job keeping constant pressures on thier target fronts & NOT pushing blindly at literal dead ends...
Lol so delusional
Thanks a lot!
Incredibly clear and concise video, instantly subbed! Thanks very much
"Bridgehead... Well the Antonovski bridge is already a bridge" LOL, love it.
An excellent analysis as usual. Thanks, Anders.
Thank you for your analysis
Thank you so much for this analysis. I was waiting for your take on the counter offensive by Ukraine. It really pulls together all the little bits of information that is coming out.
Excellent analysis.
Very good, and balanced analysis.
Great summary!
This is probably the clearest, most succinct summary of the counteroffensive I've seen so far. For those who have been watching, it's not terribly surprising, but it makes for a great Cliff's notes review.
The good news is that Ukraine is being exceptionally intelligent and rethinking approaches when they should, rather than doubling down on idiocy. If anything, it's a bit much for the west to call out Russian stupidity, while engaging in similar acts ourselves. Ukraine needed air dominance over the front to pull off what we expected, yet we didn't give them anything to achieve that. Thus, expecting a Kharkiv-like advance was mind-numbingly dumb.
However, it seems the UAF move back to attrition has paid off. We are already seeing signs that this strategy has allowed them to advance in areas, and it has to be pinching other areas as well.
😂
This perfectly explains the need for cluster munitions.
Slavia Ukrainia ! Herojam Slava ! Anders you are so good at explaining what is going on, thank you so much ! Good to see the UAF putting pressure on the left bank of the Dnipro !
I appreciate this thoughtful data backed update
I think the fact alone that Ukraine is pushing on several fronts with minor to greater success while maintaining a bridgehead for weeks goes to show that this attritional warfare works.
It works, but it is both slow and costly in manpower and ammunition/equipment... Even without air power, but good solid amounts of long-range fires, this could be a maneuver style warfare after the cracking of the initial lines of defense. So basically what I'm saying, the USA needs to liberate the ATACAMS
Dont forget that russia is also pushing that means their successes are twofold. Of course they arent taking them by surprise
"greater success". really
Yes, very successful attrition of Ukrainian forces, exactly what Russia wants.
Russia has at least four times the population that the Ukraine has---we don't really know for sure because the Ukrainian state hasn't been able or willing to conduct a census for 22 years.
Superb analysis. Thank you, Anders.
Excellent analysis, as usual. I do enjoy your thoughts. Very thorough. Keep it coming.
7:15 A LOT? We have like 40 Leos and maybe 50 Bradley IFVs. That's it. This isn't a lot, this is INCREDIBLY little. To push out Germans in same lands we used THOUSANDS of tanks AND had West pushing from other direction! Westerners are deluded if they think there's one person in Ukraine who thinks this is enough.
So clear, like always
Excellent vidéo thanks
Finally. Clarity. Thank you Anders. Please post more often!
Great analysis, keep bringing us great stuff!
Godt gået. Udemærket analyse. Hold ud, bliv ved!
Som svensk så fattar jag vad du skrev , kul
Vi er vikinger
@@janlindtner305 Hvad er lige betydningen af det?
Maybe it means they want to sail someplace and conquer it. Hmm, an amphibious landing behind Russian lines could be very helpful right now. 😊
@@valeriesolanas4077 At vi som Dansk Norsk Svensk ikke har nødig at slå over i engelsk for at forstå hinanden
An outstanding review. What has been really frustrating for me is to listen to so many network airheads denigrate Ukraine's efforts when it's clear that assaulting a fixed line (where they've had months(!) to prepare) is incredibly challenging. For those wanting a great overview of this, view the "Mother of all Briefings" by Norman Swartzkauf during GW1.
Again, a great brief - thanks so much!