2022 Topps Update - Top 15 Rookies To Look For And Invest In
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- Опубліковано 31 лип 2024
- 2022 Topps Update is being released this week. 2022 Topps Update has one of the best rookie checklists that we have seen in a very long time. There are at least 4 top 10 prospects from 2022 in this set and at least 4 or 6 other rookies with interesting upside. In this video I break down the rookies in this checklist and use a few stats to determine who could potentially be the best rookie from 2022 Topps Update.
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Nick Lodolo was an accidental miss on my part. I didn't realize this was his first flagship rookie set. He is 24 years old and a top 40 prospect. Here is where he would have/should have landed on the list:
Age:6
Prospect ranking: 6
Minor stats: 8
Major stats: 7
Avg: 6.75
That would put him at 6-8 and tied with Hunter Greene and Spencer Torkelson.
Wow glad I came across this video I just pulled a topps black and gold Julio Rodriguez
Witt Jr. was horrible defensively on a day-to-day basis overall but there were specific plays where he looked like Ozzie Smith was playing again. He had two big issues defensively. 1. On double plays he was late to the bag for the relay or he did not get the ball to Lopez in a way for him to make the relay and turn two. 2. He relied on his athletic ability more than fundamentals and positioning (this is a coaching problem in my opinion). Offense: Great except for the Walk / Strikeout ratio. Maybe Vinnie P. can help him figure that out.
As a DBacks fan, I’m glad Alek Thomas only has a few RC’s (so far). As far as I know, his only Topps base cards are in Fire, Museum Collection, and now Update. I expect he’ll end up in a few more sets, but it should make his flagship cards even more collectible!
Side note: I would like to see a video on Complete Set rookie SP’s. I’m sort of confused about how the hobby values them, because they seem to have similar value to base rookies even though they have shorter print runs and still have the flagship design. Is it because don’t have the iconic photos associated with the player, or is it because it’s so easy to just buy the complete set and get the cards instead of ripping for them, or is there an entirely different reason I’m not considering?
Been watching Alek as well, glad to see him in the mix. Let's go SNAKES!!!
I love Kwan, I got a red foil 16/199
Hey Scottie, I appreciate your analysis on these new sets. I would be interested to see you revisit the Topps flagship releases from the past few years based on a some hindsight and on-field performance. Maybe a tier-list with every Series 1, 2 and Update from the past 4-5 years where you identify a few key rookies and other highlights from each set. Your thoughts on which past sets offer good value relative to market prices for unopened product would be useful too.
8:09 Just to clear it up for those unfamiliar with WAR: you do not add/subtract oWAR and dWAR to get a player's overall WAR. They are entirely unrelated, and any season in which a player's oWAR +/- dWAR = WAR is nothing more than a coincidence.
Great vid Scottie!
Another good video Scottie. Always appreciate the content
Of course! Thanks for watching.
This is a fantastic video, thank you for doing it! Im wondering why Nick Lodolo was left off the list!?
Thanks for watching! Also, leaving Lodolo off was 100% just an oversight unfortunately😞. I have no excuse since I live close to the Reds!
Love the video. Excited for the product!
Thank you. I appreciate it! Good luck with your rips.
Alek Thomas!! Picked up his 1st refractor and he looks great!!
Thx for the great vid Scottie! Don’t know much about the rookies besides the big names. Appreciate the in depth analysis on each player
Anytime Ethan. Thanks for watching! This set has a lot of potential in it. Good luck breaking.
Awesome video! I 100% agree with your picks!
Thanks Travis!
Love this type of video
Thank you! They are always some of my favorite videos to make every year.
Solid set, I’m looking forward to ripping some when it comes out! I like the checklist, however I am more excited for Michael Harris in next year’s product.
dissappointing Harris wasnt in this year as a rookie great player in minors n majors this year
Agreed.. Series 1 next year has a ton of potential!
@@scottiebcards2354 for sure adley, harris, n maybe corbin carroll just picked up a huge corbin carroll card he's cheap now he's gonna get hyped up next year
@@scottiebcards2354 Topps Series 2 this year was pretty low effort and uninspiring for me, I did however get a Julio variation SP from two hobby boxes, other than that those boxes were drier than the Sahara Desert
Ikk I’m hyped for Michael Harris rookies. Especially since his only Bowman 1st is an autograph.
What about Adley?
Hey, thanks for watching. Adley rookie cards are not going to be released until 2023. Topps is holding all rookies who debuted after mid march until next year.
This list is staaaaaaacked. Thx Scottie
Agreed. Ripping packs should be fun from this set!
Nicely put together list. Of course, being an Orioles fan, I'm hoping that Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson are in the update set.
Hey! Unfortunately, both players are being held out until 2023. Any rookie who debuted after mid May was held out by Topps.
So invest in these guys from Topps Update? I would just leave investment out.
You deserve way more subs! Keep it up. I hope you're making content for years to come!
Thank you. I appreciate that. Thank you for watching 😃
My Money is All on Wander Franco...we'll see
Always like your approach and delivery. I don’t miss any of your posts. I’m heading to Denver. I will only be there mid week. I’m always on the hunt for good vintage baseball. Any suggestions?
Hey Eric, I appreciate it! I have not lived in the Denver are since around 2012-2015, but the shop I liked best was "Mike's Stadium Sports Cards". They are great! Thanks for watching.
Good info.
Thank you!
I AM EXCTIED ABOUT THIS ONE! Bought max amount from distributor...the prices are gonna go up...they are saying they didnt produce as much as in the past. We shall see on that one.
Thanks for the video always a good job putting it together I am right with you on what you are going with I was shocked about a couple people but when you go by age and all of that you are probably dead on it good job
I’m excited. Probably going to buy a hobby box Friday.
Thanks Chad. I appreciate it. Let us all know how you do!
Cal Raleigh deserves to be on this list! Love your videos btw.
Hey! Cal Raleigh had a rookie card in Series 1 this year which is why he is not in this set. Thanks!
As a Mariners fan, I sure hope you are right about the Mariners. Hopefully I don't need to wait another 20 plus years after this year's playoff run.
Great video, was sad when the check list came out and zero of my braves rookies made it into it. ( Spencer strider, Michael Harris, and Vaughn Grissom )
Ha! I knew you would make this, i was looking for info on update for upcoming breaks and thought, ill bet scottie b has a vid on it! Lolol
Home field advantage Julio rc calling it
I think that is a good prediction!
I ordered a few jumbo and hobby boxes.. I’m excited but also worried about the print runs.. gonna be like late 80s and early 90s wax era
Good luck in your rips. I hope you pull something big!
Too low on Miranda Scottie! Watched a fair amount of him this year, love his AB's. Could see .280-.300 with 30+ jacks next year. But what a great checklist, thanks for your breakdown!
Oh Miranda could be a great talent here soon, but with the way I structure these videos I have to go off of more hard data so it is less of my opinion if that makes sense. Thanks for watching Cole!
He’s 24years old which is old for long term collecting and ceiling
@@mrsmith8423 Kwan's older and doesn't have impact power potential. Last I checked, home runs sell more than batting titles in 2022. He's a year older than Torkelson who statistically had the worst debut by a 1st overall pick. He's not a pitcher (lol), and I'm a big Gore & Kirby fan, but once again I'll take the 30/.300 guy over a pitcher. 131 WRC+ from June to end of season (400+ AB's) Above average exit velo and barrel rate during that time, and the Twins had him 3rd in the order. Pena is a full year + older and sure he's having a great post-season, but I'm old enough to remember Randy Arozarena who was also 25 when he blew up in the post. Kid ran a .289 OBP over 130+ games this season. That's not going to bode well going forward unless he makes a big time adjustment with his discipline, hard to do. Do you have anything insightful to add?
@@colemiller8657 can’t argue that but I never said was high on Kwan either lol
Hey Scottie! Great vid as always! Do you think the prospect ranking and minor league stats warrant equal weight compared to age and major league stats for your final grade? In my opinion, I think age and major league should be like 30% weight and prospect/minor at 20%. Prospect/minor league stats seems more backwards looking - I totally get we need some stats to look back to make some educated guesses but would think their major league performance would paint a better picture. They’re all fairly young anyways so it’s too early to tell but something to consider. Thanks as always for your hard work! Always look forward to your vids.
Great video. J Pena is already 25, right? I think your video said he was getting close to turning 24. Great work!!
There were soooo many cards of some of these guys out there before their Update card came out. Will that make a difference or will the old way of thinking prevail as to what the key Topps card is? These won't be as rare.
Generally speaking in the future people tend to look at the flagship rookie of a player regardless of which set came out. Juan Soto's first set was Archives. I was very excited for it and bought some blasters. Years later people tend to not care about the Archives rookie much anymore. Thanks for watching Chris!
@@scottiebcards2354 I like heritage, archives, TBT and the (anniversary design sets.) I just picked up a 2017 Aaron judge Yankees 1976 design in a $1 box at a show this weekend. There’s only one for sale on eBay for $24. Probably one of the coolest looking judge rookies if you are a Yankees fan. The cards of these I’m guys I’m looking to scoop up right now for me is the 62 World Series design Julio Rodriguez. You can grab it on topps right now in a 3 cards set for $14.99 with a 1/18 chance at a photo variation, the rest of his are are $20-$60. Jeremy Peña 91 and 71 design. And all the Bobby Witt and Abrams, they are cheap. To me these cards might be the way to go, because it’s a low entry point, a card design that’s obviously stood the test of time and the total print run of each card is put out after the set expires at the end of the week. You can also look the older sets up on comc and it list the print run for each card.
there's too many products period. i like pre rookie sets like toppsnow, heritage, archives, bowmans best tend to be shorter printed
@@mickey-eq5vw I like bowman’s best as well! I have been setting money aside each week to buy a couple hobby boxes this year.
@@carsyncruz i never thought to buy a hobby of bowmans best ha idk why, i buy a lot of single auto's, its a great product for a hobby im gonna scoop one up i love the gold lava refractors one of my favorite products
I ended up getting a case of jumbo. Do you think it would be smart to stash a couple? Looking at price of some of the past sets with big time stars (like 2011 update) makes it very enticing.
I have some Jeremy Pena 2022 roockie cards. He had an average to above average regular rookie season but he had a great post season winning the ALCS MVP, World Series MVP and a gold glove. Im sure their card value has gone up since winning the World Series.
your thoughts on brandon marsh ? and wander franco i feel like he will be a top 10 player
where is wander franco with your math Scottie boss
So what about micheal Harris ll
Hi George, Michael Harris does not have rookie cards in 2022. Topps is holding him over until 2023. Thanks for watching.
What about micheal harris ll
Hi George, Michael Harris does not have rookie cards in 2022. Topps is holding him over until 2023. Thanks for watching.
Sounds like it will be a great set! I am a little disappointed (but I get it) that the trade deadline deals didn't make the set. I was looking forward to chasing Juan Soto Padres autos. Oh well
Yeah it is kind of a bummer. I get that Topps needs time to print, pack, and ship these cards (takes more time than most people realize), but it would be cool to see a SSP or two of traded players from the trade deadline.
Me too I'm big Pads fan no Machado auto 😤
@@tubenachos there are Manny autos. They’re all star patch autos. Even one dual with Joe
Collectors will compare this to 2012 and 2018 Topps because of the S2 SPs. I think it will stir pot given they might consider Update as TRUE RCs
The main guys Jrod witt tork and cj all should count as Update being their first cards. Imo
Would you buy tickets for the first Rockies game of there existence?
Why no Braves on list?
Harris II
Strider
Hi Alejandro. This list is just the rookies on the 2022 Topps Update checklist. Spencer Strider is in Series 2 and does not have a rookie in this product and Harris is not a rookie in 2022 his rookie cards will be released in 2023.
@@scottiebcards2354 Thanks for the reply, you mean Harris did everything he did this year and he’ll still be a rookie next year. That’s crazy. Good channel and content you have. Thanks.
@@scottiebcards2354 Thanks for the reply, you mean Harris did everything he did this year and he’ll still be a rookie next year. That’s crazy. Good channel and content you have. Thanks.
What about Suwinski? Is he in the set? I think if he works on his strikeouts he will be a star! Highly underrated in my opinion
I appreciate the work you put in to generate these lists, but I think we see the danger of putting too much weight into the prospect ratings. Some guys get moved up too fast and wilt, and I'm afraid Tork and Witt will be those guys.
The rest of the list I think you're spot on, though.
steven kwan was a beast in the playoffs
Kwan is awesome. I watched him a lot this year, and he never disapointed!
@@scottiebcards2354 yea for sure. ever since he came up his simple contact approach worked well. gonna keep an eye out for his cards this off-season.
Regarding age, I think we've all been spoiled by the aberrant recent history with Acuna, Tatus, and Soto.
Agreed. The problem is that age is very important for long term value. A lot of 24-25 year old rookies in the hobby don't seem to have much anymore. Thanks for watching Dave!
How is Bobby’s OPS+ so much lower than Julio? Is there really that much weight on taking walks?
Witt's OPS is so much lower since his OPS is significantly lower. Julio has an ops of .853 while Witt has an ops of .722. That is a 131 point difference.
Julio is 51 points higher in OBP and 81 points higher in slugging. Both of these together make up that huge difference.
No Adley Rutschman?
i dont get that he started same time as witt n jrod
Hey! Thanks for watching. Adley debuted on June 24th, but the cutoff was around May 15th unfortunately. I personally believe that it is way too early in the year for a cut off, but that is why you are not seeing him here.
@@scottiebcards2354 Adley debuted May 22nd
Jeremy Pena the best way over J Rod my opinion
Nice video update I'm chasing Pena Go Stros
Good luck in your breaks, and good luck in the WS!
They saved the best for next years topps? HARRIS for the Braves.
Hey! Thanks for watching. Michael Harris debuted on May 28th but the cutoff was around May 15th unfortunately. I personally believe that it is way too early in the year for a cut off, but that is why you are not seeing him here.
Will harris be in Topps 2023 ?
@@georgehernandez850 yes he should be.
Topps' player choices for these sets really get me sometimes 🤔🤔 Can't wait to pull my Sergio Romo Mariners card lol said no one
Update vets generally are not the best. You are right there 😂
Tork is too good of a hitter to be this bad going forward. Finally a decent checklist from Topps
I like to think so as well. Hopefully he can figure it out on both sides of the ball!
@@scottiebcards2354 the dude only played one full season in the minors and went through all 3 levels. It felt rushed. One of the best college hitters of all-time. I guess we will see though. Great content
Where is Adley's Topps card? I don't get why he was left out.
The cut off for 2022 rookies was mid may. Adley debuted in June so Topps is holding him out until 2023.
Where can I get a box of Topps update lol Imma try to get a Jrod
New to the hobby btw
I think we will all look back and wish we bought Bobby Witt instead of Julio! He just has to get on base little more.
Jordan diaz and Logan o' Hoppe will have to wait .
Topps snubbing Michael Harris in Update? Possible Short Print?
Hey! Michael Harris is being held out until 2023. Thanks for watching!
Wait, you live near Cincinnati? This whole time I figured you lived near Denver!
You need to take top prospect off the ranking. It doesn’t matter that much.
Random comment just to help support the channel.
W
Thanks Dustin. I appreciate you!
Rutschman not in this?
Personally I would’ve put kwan higher than mh and Bryan
Hey Raul, I agree, but since Kwan didn't rank as a top prospect my hands are tied to where he is. I made those 4 categories so it was less my opinion and more of a science.
This is off topic Scottie, but I received a notification from your you tube account from a video 8 days ago, indicating you’re doing a giveaway of Mookie Betts autos…I assume this is not legit?
That is definitely a scam. Where did you get that from? Was it a comment on a video or an actual notification?
@@scottiebcards2354 it was from the comments section from your video several days ago - I think it was the 15 prospects cards. Check it out
Just deleted those comments. Thanks for letting me know!
Why no Michael Harris rookie?
Good afternoon, Michael Harris does not have rookie cards in 2022. Topps is holding him over until 2023. Thanks for watching.
@@scottiebcards2354 doesn’t make sense to me as a collector. Topps had rookie cards in the update that played less games than Harris like Ramos and Gore and etc
Where is Nick Lodolo?
Nick Lodolo was an accidental miss on my part. I didn't realize this was his first flagship rookie set. He is 24 years old and a top 40 prospect. Here is where he would have/should have landed on the list:
Age:6
Prospect ranking: 6
Minor stats: 8
Major stats: 7
Avg: 6.75
That would put him at 6-8 and tied with Hunter Greene and Spencer Torkelson.
Won’t there be update chrome? I’ll just wait for that
There will be Update Chrome. It is usually a retail only product.
I’m surprised Nick Lodolo didn’t make the list for the Reds. He had a better rookie year than Hunter and he was a top 40 prospect
Nick Lodolo was an accidental miss on my part. I didn't realize this was his first flagship rookie set. He is 24 years old and a top 40 prospect. Here is where he would have/should have landed on the list:
Age:6
Prospect ranking: 6
Minor stats: 8
Major stats: 7
Avg: 6.75
That would put him at 6-8 and tied with Hunter Greene and Spencer Torkelson.
The problem with Bobby Witt Jr. is his defense is garbage. The Royals could VERY likely move him to 3B, at which point he will struggle to make the All-Star game in front of Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Rafeal Devers, and even Matt Chapman. He will get lost in the crowd if he moves to 3B.
Be aware, and beware.
Royce Lewis tore his ACL mid-season
I forgot to highlight that in the video. I believe that is the second time it has happened to him. Thanks for pointing that out.
@@scottiebcards2354 he tore the same ACL twice in a year and a half… super depressing as a Twins fan. Great video regardless!
Oneil Cruz? C'mon.....
ONeil Cruz has his flagship rookie in Topps Series 2. His rookie isn’t in this set (besides a rookie debut which doesn’t’t count).
@@scottiebcards2354 my mistake. Thanks.
p.s. How bout them Phillies!? 💪
i cant afford to be in the hobby anymore. shits too expensive. a once fun hobby is turned into a business.
No Riley Greene in this release? I must have read wrong earlier. Thought he was in Update
Hey Sam, any player that debuted past mid may is held until the next year. Unfortunately for us Riley Greene debuted in June 😞
Is Riley Greene not in Topps Update?😐 Think he should be in the top 10 if he was.
Hey Joan, He is not in this set. Topps is holding him out until 2023. Thanks for watching!
Abrahms worrys me with his inability to walk. Needs to improve plate discipline
The same could be said about Witt as well. I think that these young players can develop that part of their game with age. The ones that do become all stars, and the ones that don't become league average. Thanks for watching Stewart!
Was expecting Lars Nootbar on here guess he didn't get a card in there. And yeah like everyone else no Spencer Strider in the set thats crazy.
Hey Frederick, Nootbar and Strider had rookies in Topps Series 2. Thanks for watching!
@@scottiebcards2354 have you seen anyone get those ssp mascot cards in series 2? They were going for ridiculous amount on ebay last time i looked.
Love your rankings videos but think the methodology has been exposed here when you have someone like Steven Kwan who puts up a 5.5 bWAR/124 OPS+ full season for the Guardians, but falls waaaaaay down the rankings just because he has no "Prospect Ranking".
I mean, surely having a good chunk of data about how a player performs in MLB cannot just be equal-weighted to his minor league performance or prospect ranking. And, since there's presumably a lot of overlap between those latter two categories, it's almost like you're double-emphasizing older, less relevant data vs. more recent, higher-level data. This is exactly why some people won't give up on Jarred Kelenic!!
Hunter Greene is a funny name.
It Hunter Green is my favorite shade of green actually.
Wow. Spencer Strider just fell off the list altogether huh? I'd like to see him in Boston, for sure.
Oh, he's in the base set, I forgot 😆
Spencer Strider is in Topps Series 2. He is not in this set. Thanks for watching!
@@scottiebcards2354
I remembered lol
I am surprised he doesn't have yet another rookie in this set, though.
Thanks for the vids!
No O’Neil Cruz????
Cruz's flagship rookie is in Topps Series 2. He is not in this set outside of a rookie debut. I hope that clears it up. Thanks for watching!
No Spencer Strider
Spencer Strider is in Topps Series 2. He is not in this set. Thanks for watching!
I made same mistake. It is puzzling to me they didn't at least give him a rookie debut rc card in there.
CAL RALEIGH BETTER THAN 90% of these comps
Hi Jason, Cal is in Series 1. His true flagship rookie isn’t in this set so he doesn’t qualify for the video.
Not Pena
No Strider or Michael Harris. Hard pass on this product.
Hi Jeremy, Spencer Strider had his rookie in Series 2. It does suck Michael Harris isn’t in the set but any player who debuted past midnight may doesn’t get a rookie this year. Thanks for watching!
@@scottiebcards2354 appreciate the clarification. Big Braves fan. With the SPs of the big RCs in series 2, that seems like a better buy.
CJ can't hit lefty's. That's why we sent him away!
He is young enough that he might be able to figure it out. He definitely will need to for his card values.
Nick Lodolo gets no respect... he should be at least better than McKenzie Gore
Nick Lodolo was a definite miss on my part. I didn't realize this was his first rookie set. He is 24 years old and a top 40 prospect. Here is where he would have/should have landed on the list:
Age:6
Prospect ranking: 6
Minor stats: 8
Major stats: 7
Avg: 6.75
That would put him at 6-8 and tied with Hunter Greene and Spencer Torkelson.
@Scottie B Cards Lodolo is in Tops Fire along with most of these names....
Hey Jeff. I was referencing his first "flagship" set. Strider, Ralegh, Nootbar, Cruz, and others are in series 2 and I accidentally assumed that Lodolo was as well.
I was wondering, he's a bit old but actually pitched good. Love your channel btw
These 'buy the crappy specs i loaded up on' videos by known scammers are going to be the death of sportscard collecting. You known scammers dont even care that you are destroying the hobby for a couple bucks.
Forgive me, are you calling me a known scammer? I have never scammed anyone or been accused of scamming before. Also, I don’t own any cards of rookies from 2022 so I am not sharing my thoughts to try to make any money whatsoever. I just love baseball cards.