Decision Theory Under Uncertainity Practically Solved Example IN HINDI By JOLLY COACHING

This video is about DECISION THEORY of OPERATION RESEARCH which includes certain Methods of decision theory like : minimax, maximin , maximax , minimax regret , laplace and hurwicz.
All this methods are explained in detail with the help of solved numerical. This video will help you to understand this methods and ultimately you are able to solve any question of decision theory.
I hope this video will be a helpful thing for you to understand the basic concept of decision theory and its methods.
Thanks.
JOLLY Coaching.
DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
Decision Making Process
Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation.
Nature of Decisions
Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker:
Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action.
Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative.
Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome.
Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff.
With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff.
Four Elements Common to Decision Problems:
1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set.
2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends.
3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations.
4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem.
We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example.
First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium.
Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature.
Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff.
Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here.
Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12.
How to solve decision Theory Practically.
Decision Theory numerical question.
Decision Theory in operation research.
Decision Theory in OP.
SOLVING DECISION THEORY.
DECISION TREE ANALYSIS.
OPERATION RESEARCH.
DECISION THEORY.
decision theory in hindi.
decision theory statistics.
decision theory problems.
decision theory under uncertainty.
decision theory kauser wise

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Sir, you're teaching is very good. I have doubt that if negative values are in each row or column then how to solve ? Pls reply ...
It's very important

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Simple and very easy to understand. Thank you for making us easy

[@VED69]

Jolly bhaiyya bhot mast explain kiya.. one night prepartion me bhot help ki aapki video ne...!!! Thank You

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Helped a lot.

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me aap ka video 3 month se dekh raha hun aur mujhe sab kuch samajh me aa raha he
kuch bhi doubt nahi he
thanks a lot

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Ok

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Which course you Studied

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Gajjab, amazing.... Thank you soo much sir for explaining this topic so easily...

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Sir plz post a vedio on Markov analysis plz sir ...

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thank you for making video on it....☺

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Ur teaching methods is too good I really need this practice questions

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this video make me more knowledgeable about the decision theory. thank you so much 😇

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This was so helpful! Especially because this subject is not easy to understand or recall! Thank you so much !

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Very nice sir ....very helpful ...very clearly understandable0

[@islamians1]

dear sir i have question, you said "laplace me hum profit matrix use kar rahe hai" ? i am confused what is profit matrix? laplace me kia loss matric be hota hia? matlab jub b hum laplace karenge tu kia wo profit matrix hoga??

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Thank You Sir I came back to this video to say thank you because your video made me understand the problem so well that I could solve the problem after you explained
According to me decision theory was really a vast topic but I didn't know that after watching your videos on decision theory I could excel it with full concentration thanks a lot sir you have done a wonderful job ,Thank You

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Me too😁😁

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Thnki so much sir it was really helpful. Thanks alot

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I liked this video
Because I understand all the topic
But I have an doubt please rectify my doubt
In hurwicz criterion at lastly applying formula
Have we want to select the HIGHEST VALUE OR
LOWEST VALUE
please rectify my doubt

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Very nice Explanation Sirji

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You're welcome

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I have one different problem about decision analysis can you solve that provide the answer?

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nice explanation ... thank you

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What can we understand from state of nature ?

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sir row me maximax krna h ya colum me

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sir..,In hurwicz criterion method the calculation u did for 'c'alternative is ans 9.8 but u have 16.so on.,

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Opp Loss matrix can be said as EOL ?

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