Decision Making Under Risks in Hindi with Practical solved Example by JOLLY Coaching

This video is about DECISION THEORY of OPERATION RESEARCH which includes certain Methods of decision theory like : minimax, maximin , maximax , minimax regret , laplace and hurwicz.
All this methods are explained in detail with the help of solved numerical. This video will help you to understand this methods and ultimately you are able to solve any question of decision theory.
I hope this video will be a helpful thing for you to understand the basic concept of decision theory and its methods.
Thanks.
JOLLY Coaching.
DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
Decision Making Process
Decision-making is the prerogative of management and the nature of the decisions made will vary according to the status of the manager. At board level, fundamental decisions regarding the objectives of the organization, and the development of a corporate plan to fulfill those objectives will be made. Functional and line management will be involved in operational decisions designed to ensure the successful implementation of the planning decisions. At shop floor level, foremen and line supervisors will be involved in determining the best approach to performing more specific tasks. The importance of decision-making _ the function of management must therefore be emphasised, and at the same time a set of criteria and procedures for decision-making must be specified. A formalised decision-making process is essential for efficient management of the organisation.
Nature of Decisions
Decision-making is concerned with the selection of the preferred course of action from a range of possibilities. The classical concept of decision-making assumes that the decision-maker:
Has complete knowledge of all the possible alternative courses of action.
Has complete knowledge of the consequences of taking every alternative.
Can attach definite payoffs or utilities to each possible outcome.
Can order the payoffs of each course of action in a unique sequence from highest to lowest payoff.
With these assumptions a decision-maker can be regarded as an optimiser when he selects the alternative course of action with the highest payoff.
Four Elements Common to Decision Problems:
1) Actions [Acts/Strategies]: The set of two or more alternatives the decision-maker has chosen to consider. The decision-maker's problem is to choose one action from this set.
2) States of nature: The set of two or more mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive chance events upon which the outcome of the decision-maker's chosen action depends.
3) Outcomes: The set of consequences resulting from all possible action/state of nature combinations.
4) Objective variable: The quantity used to measure and express the outcomes of a decision problem.
We can identify these four specific elements of the decision problem in our example.
First, a choice must be made between two possible courses of action-rent the out¬door stadium or rent the indoor stadium.
Second, it is uncertain which event will occur-rain or no rain. We refer to these events as states of nature.
Note that the states of nature considered in any problem must be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.
Third, depending on which action is chosen and which state of nature occurs on the evening of the concert, the decision-maker will receive either a financial reward or a penalty for the chosen action. The consequences of the decision problem are referred to as outcomes; these may be either positive or negative. For example, if the action chosen by the promoter is Rent the outdoor stadium and the state of nature that occurs is Rain, the outcome that results is (-Rs. 2 million). The combination Rent the outdoor stadium/No rain will yield a profit of Rs. 17 million. The reward (or penalty) corresponding to each action/state of nature combination is called the outcome or payoff.
Fourth, since the outcome is expressed in terms of net profit, it is objective variable here.
Decision Theory, Statistical Decision Making, State of Nature, Statistics, Operations Research, MBA, MCA, BE, CA, CS, CWA, CMA, CPA, CFA, BBA, BCom, MCom, BTech, MTech, CAIIB, FIII, Graduation, Post Graduation, BSc, MSc, BA, MA, Diploma, Production, Finance, Management, Commerce, Engineering , Grade-11, Grade- 12.
How to solve decision Theory Practically.
Decision Theory numerical question.
Decision Theory in operation research.
Decision Theory in OP.
SOLVING DECISION THEORY.
DECISION TREE ANALYSIS.
OPERATION RESEARCH.
DECISION THEORY.
decision theory in hindi.
decision theory statistics.
decision theory problems.
decision theory under uncertainty.
decision theory kauser wise

[@dhruvanshsharma5761]

Bhagwan apka bhalla kare Bhai👍! Dhanyawad.

[@shradhasharma8364]

Thank you dude... Literally the way you explained is so simple .. 😊😊 once again thank you so much 😊

[@amitpandey359]

I am a maths teacher if u need any help u can contact me I provide free lectures this lockdown period .

[@pankhudijain3380]

Your way of teaching is so easy ,easy to understand .Thankyou

[@vaishalisinghal5180]

Nice way. Very easy after watching your video.. Thank you

[@kritikakaushal7819]

Sir please attach link to ur previous related videos which refer in the videos. Thank you 🙏🏽 great job sir 👍🏼👌🏼

[@syedrizvi8525]

Excellent 👌☺️👌 wonderful way of teaching speechless no words to describe your teaching abilities and skills hats off for your efforts. After getting a lecture every single thing is clear...

[@akshayranalkar1396]

good explanation ... thank you

[@meenakshinegi2162]

Jus wow... Simple to understand ... 🙏🙏🙏🙏👌👌👌👌

[@shakiiakkalath6433]

Thank you so much... Kal Mera exam hai... Help Karne keliye thank you 🙏🏻🙋🏻‍♀️

[@munshisaiful7987]

Sir apka lacture bhut achhha laghta orr fan hoy gaye

[@Mrbeastfan_yt2023]

You are god sir!

[@minahilch6490]

Bhai jan
Bht achy
Kmaal a .
Smjh k esi feeling aa rhi hy jese ye method introduce mene hi krwaya tha😂👍👍👍

[@rajnishraman78]

Well explained.
Thank You sir!

[@sakshishahu5424]

everything is amazing.......just work on sound its too low as compared to others.

[@nehagarg9330]

Thank u sir ,your explanation method is so simple

[@pramodsuthar3056]

Thanks a lot Sir

[@niladribasu4671]

Thanks for the video sir. It was very helpful. 🙏

[@amritaoshrivastava8595]

Thank u bro
it was really a menigful vide for me
i really understood about this theory and its all methods
serssly GOOD JOB

[@badboygaming2455]

Easy nd simple way to explain.grt

[@sridevidigadari596]

Thank you so much sir

[@salonirathi6151]

Thanks a lot !...was in need of such video

[@Jawacouple_nitansh]

Very nic thnku 🙂all cleared concept

[@jollycoaching4214]

Please share

[@poruScientist99]

Bro you are a life saver.

[@ruchisharma173]

Superb way kitna easy bna diya apne is chp ko👌👌👍

[@jollycoaching4214]

+Ruchi Sharma
Thanks.
Please share my video with your friends

[@ruchisharma173]

JOLLY Coaching of course sir why not

[@PriyankaSharma-fp7qi]

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[@shrushtimali289]

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[@jollycoaching4214]

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[@komalpreet4286]

Thankuuu for making easy concept 🙏🙏🙏💯%goood this channel

[@alcielcode8005]

In case of opportunity loss will the probability(1-p)change after conversation of profit matrix into loss matrix.

[@narsimhachary5838]

Thankyou thankyou ❤

[@divyeshmbablogs3239]

thank you bhai

[@mamuragulomkodirova7023]

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[@shubhamagarwal5024]

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[@architasharma8017]

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[@sohaibtahir1624]

You made my exam easy stay blessed

[@ritikasharma1740]

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[@pujas3559]

Ek galat pronounce kiya minus 35 nahi minus 350 h.. baki video is awesome bahot acche se samjta h

[@satyaashokdowluri1129]

I've exam in 20 min lol🤣
Thanks!

[@mrityunjaykumar1312]

Aap vedio ko indexing kar diya kijiye so that kaun sa aage piche hai o pata chal sake

[@sunithadevarasetti4259]

Tq so much🎁🎁🎁

[@vikasshrimali]

Thanks bhai doing a good job, keep it up.

[@hrushikgole7468]

धन्यवाद

[@dalidali9772]

Too good

[@jollycoaching4214]

Please share

[@jashalkhandeka8665]

Thanku so much thank you so much 🙏🙏🙏🙏

[@vinpreetkaur4012]

Please attach link of your previous videos tysm geart job sir

[@ramanjiranga1853]

Jolly coaching super

[@harshsahu4578]

seriously Hatsoff

[@jollycoaching4214]

Please share with your friends
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[@kshiprachakankar3696]

EOL for B will be -40, because it will be -600not +600. But, I really had a great learning for your video. thanks

[@albinsiby7]

How will it be - 600?

[@HyperionX_2021]

hello.....sorry to disturb you after 2 years.....but we are taking absolute values in conditional Loss table. but still how did you get -600 in ur calc????

[@NirajKumar-fs4wl]

Yes -600 aayega

[@DURGESH-gy8hb]

You are worthy to be liked

[@DineshSaini-ps1dg]

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[@jollycoaching4214]

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[@mihirimahsultan8391]

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[@jollycoaching4214]

Thanks.
Please share with your friends

[@yashchavan4457]

Thanks 😊😊😊

[@sachit701]

Sir when we find EOL for A why we multiply 0.4*150 instead of 0.4*220

[@madewithlove166]

Thankyou 😍

[@jollycoaching4214]

Please share

[@md_meenal9682]

pls make a video on Bayesian decision theory..

[@prajwalchunarkar]

Where is the post profit question as you mentioned in the previous video????

[@rafsanchowdhury343]

thanks bro

[@jollycoaching4214]

Thanks for watching.
Please share with your friends.
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[@johnmalii4858]

Very appropriate

[@islamians1]

question about expected opportunity lost , do we always make lost sheet for calculating opportunity lost ?

[@daminisolanki2835]

It was taught in the first video

[@islamians1]

do you have videos on following ?
Hypothesis Testing
Binary Hypothesis Test
Likelihood Ratio and Log Likelihood Ratio
Bayes Risk
Neyman-Pearson Criterion
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve
M-ary Hypothesis Test
Optimal Decision Making

[@sparshmandhana7762]

Bhai itna padh likh ke kya ukhaad lega tu newton banaa hai kya?

[@mileesingh9453]

are we multiplying probablity two times in emv

[@badditudediva5134]

Just luvd it thank u so much

[@jollycoaching4214]

+Badditude Diva
You're welcome

[@SakshiChhabra-tz8os]

❤❤

[@techforyouprofessional8775]

Why we r multiply probability with act a ,b , c ?? What is the logic??

[@saloniwadhwa5384]

Sir plzzz make a video on how to make pay off matrix table ???

[@vlogsbytanu]

Sir in 2nd method u wrote
In Q/A - 250 but here is max.value is 350
Then why did u take 250 as a max value ??

[@dhruvsinghhameerdevka269]

wo -350 hai. negative

[@poojapt7862]

Sir permutations and combination chapter of fy bcom students ke liye video banaye plz

[@shivamdhanawat722]

Thanks sir

[@islamians1]

question : kia hamesha EMV me max value select hogi?

[@rukhsarhussain1181]

The highest nd lowest value will be selected as per the alternatives not state of nature.

[@sanketkulkarni1029]

Cost matrix wala video kaha hai?? Plz bata do sir...

[@ranbirsinghchoudhary180]

Sir ji Cost profit matrix in decision tree, video nahi mil rahi hai,

[@shaikhnayab0077]

thank

[@haroonsofi4613]

thank u sir

[@jollycoaching4214]

Thanks for watching.
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[@shivamdhanawat722]

Sir can you soon upload inventory models please

[@palakmodi2000]

Hello sir,
Please share the link if the video in which you have solved cost table xample

[@jollycoaching4214]

Thanks for watching.
Link for all videos : ua-cam.com/play/PLMGRv4j_3EZZJJsTERwAQmrToTHQS22Py.html
Please share this link

[@HimanshuSharma-zw6fz]

what is state of nature?

[@someshrao6977]

Decision tree ke liye bhi bana do

[@juberahmed5580]

thanks sir.

[@jollycoaching4214]

+Juber Ahmed
You're welcome

[@ravindragade569]

Thank you sir

[@jollycoaching4214]

+ravindra gade
You're welcome.
Please share my video with your friends

[@bemage237]

sir ye jo vid hai wo Investment Decision Under Uncertainty same hai kya

[@jollycoaching4214]

Here is video for under uncertainty
Link ua-cam.com/video/7Qd4QIaz-kc/v-deo.html

[@bemage237]

nahin sir mera matlab hai ki ye jo video hai ua-cam.com/video/7Qd4QIaz-kc/v-deo.html
wo Investment Decision Under Uncertainty mai likh sakte hai kya?

[@jollycoaching4214]

This video is for under risk, so no .

[@bemage237]

acha to capital budget under risk mai to likh sakte hai na?

[@mohdvashim8549]

Increase ur volume

[@shivanirawte2479]

Sir i need practical que relating to cost by first method

[@jollycoaching4214]

Please share with your friends

[@KomalSharma-zi7uw]

Apne calculation glt ki hai (120-(-100)=220 aaya to apne A me 150 ko 0.4 se multiply kyu kiya nd lowest alternative B nhi C aayega kyuki same glti apne C me repeat ki 150 ki jgh 220 likha hai

[@vishaldhiman118]

Cost matrix vala video kaha hay sir

[@SarojKunwar-bk3gh]

bhai apke ans or mere ans match kyu nhi hote

[@SANJAYKUMAR-el9qv]

Voice issue , very low

[@shubhamagarwal5024]

sir decision tree with nodes lecture upload kariye please

[@jollycoaching4214]

+Shubham Agarwal
Ok

[@iqraashraf9790]

Cost matrix sir pehlai

[@darshilkothari4813]

Next time mic aacha use karo

[@arifhussain-sn3uz]

EMV or EVPI btao sir problem

[@jollycoaching4214]

+arif hussain
EVM is taught in this video and for EVPI I will make video as soon as possible

[@ishukumar4866]

Volume increase kur bhai

[@jollycoaching4214]

Ok.
Please share with your friends

[@charletk4110]

If only this was in English....

[@abhinavbaruah9372]

Too many ads. Keep it low.

[@ParagPardhiNITT]

*voice is too low *

[@kashmirstag786]

35 or 350 confuse kr rahay ho aap

[@vasucamma297]

kejriwall

[@jollycoaching4214]

Thanks for watching.
Please share with your friends.
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[@kuljindersaini3094]

dislike for too may ads

[@ranbirsinghchoudhary180]

Plz reply me

[@smruthirupavath4537]

The English exaplanation is really bad improve the method explaining instead of telling active to passive or passive to active

[@jollycoaching4214]

Thanks for watching.
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