Cathie Wood: Next Big Risk Is Deflation
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- Опубліковано 23 сер 2024
- Sep.29 -- Cathie Wood, Ark Investment Management CEO, believes that investors planning for an inflationary period are making a significant mistake. She tells Bloomberg's Sonali Basak that her biggest concern for markets is a 'deflationary boom.'
Innovation takes years. Printing trillions takes just one central bank meeting. No deflationary innovation can beat governament/central banks willingness to print cash.
Thank u
inflation is also driven by supply and demand (supply chain shortages) which are the primary drivers of inflation seen recently
@Giovani, nicely said. Home prices before Covid was $150/sq ft, now it it is $200/sq ft in my area. I think home has become more unaffordable after the crisis. I had to buy car recently and dealer is like take it or leave it. Paid full price. No discounts available. And same vehicle was about $9k cheaper 3 years ago. That’s like 25% price increase over 3 yr
Theres one, its called Ethereum. It’s in the blockchain technology sector she was talking about.
She is right, but she cannot say too much on TV. Low GDP growth n deflation is the result of jobs and businesses being lost to "innovation" and GOVT FISCAL POLICIES. By that, govt will and has done nothing to keep jobs at home. It is the period that follows inflationary attempts to upstart a stagnate economy. Social and welfare aid does nothing to really create a sustaining economy, but it is only a band aid.
Yes
Deflation in the things we want (2nd homes, luxury goods, entertainment) and inflation in the things we need (energy, food)
shes knows history and shes saying exactly what ppl said in the 1920s bubble, its different this time.
This aged well for Cathy.
@@tt-vu3oz This really has aged well for Cathie. Cause now commodity prices are collapsing and thus creating the environment for a deflationary spiral.
"There has never been a single time in history where a situation can look like this and not result in inflation. Here's how, magically, it won't happen this time."
Loool
The hedges are just going to drag it out. Plus, I believe that they can push the AMC stock higher.. then, manipulate the stock downwards.. and bank the stop/loss limit trades. I think this stock is $ 30 $ - $ 60 $.. I'm going to play along.
I hate that the market can be manipulated by a group of people. They go about killing small investors but i am of the opinion of being unemotional towards the market, don’t FUD or FOMO no matter what, have in mind that the market will always present an opportunity so be patient.
I'm holding my AMC stock and no "breaking news" FUD will get me to sell. We are an army and all have diamond hands. I'm sick of the market manipulation by the hedge funds and whales. It's past due time to teach those greedy b's a lesson.
I agree with you, I've been trading for 19 months now, I barely know anything about the markets i would FUD and FOMO, a friend that works at TDAmeritrade recommended a financial advisor in the person of Jessica Meador Jones that has guided me grow my portfolio from $65k to over $150k in 7months.
Wow, this is really impressive. How can I reach this advisor?
Just looked this broker up, she surprisingly seems quite solid, thought it was just some BS. I guess this is the point where I say thanks?😅
A true charlatan!
The only deflation that can happen is the deleveraging of the global markets ie. the biggest global crash since 1929
People have been saying that since 1930, over 90 years of being wrong, what a track record.
Deflation is already happening. We were at peak oil in 2019 Luyah. The world was using 99 million barrels of per day. OPEC has been force to take off 3 million barrels of the market to prices from crashing. The Electric vehicles are causing massive "Deflation" in the oil markets right now.
@@marctemura2017 I see. You mean the electric cars using energy from burnt coal on power plants, right?
@@MrZozue No, one of the reason that Elon Musk put a mega factory for electric vehicles right outside Berlin is because Germany leads the world in Solar Power. But they burn to much gas with cars. So that why you are going see a lot of people covert to EVs.
@@MrZozue And remember people are buying the Tesla power wall that charges from the solar panels. They don't need to get electricity from a coal burning or natural gas burn (which is just as polluting) power plant.
who else is back here in Feb 2022 now with 7% CPI?
Yeah that deflation really did hit us hard…
😂😂😂 stop please, you're killing me 😂😂😂
My time horizon is 5 years and we will see deflation in next 5 years
@@gibdi0n She says gdp will be 40 trillion soon. How will there be deflation based on what she is saying?
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This has aged well
Don’t know what but I would like something of the same stuff which this lady is on😂
No more stocks or gold but İnvesting on AvAX and SOLANA
Inflation for a while then a sudden, shocking, severe crash down into deflation. Housing should crash 95%, stocks may drop 80% to 90%.
I'm going through most of these comments now and seeing all the brainlets not understanding how bad deflation is. At least you're smart enough to realize this is a huge problem and she was right about it.
I appreciate KW’s perspective on future tech and innovation but I think she us dead wrong. Inflation threats are structural as well as monetary. China’s economic contraction and socio-political transformation away from free market and into more classical communism under Xi will lead the way by constraining the world supply of goods. The only way I see inflation being curtailed is by demand erosion leading to shedding of excess supply and economic hardship with it. Politicians don’t seem inclined to quit economic “drugs” and favor prolonging the artificial high. It will be good as long as it lasts.
It's clear to me you have zero clue what China is doing. What they are. And what they want to be.
@@WheresWaldo05 please illustrate me with your great wisdom. From you comment I can only guess you have a direct line to the CCP standing committee members or tyrant Xi himself.
She is dead wrong. She has a long term vision but she is hoping things don't explode before 2035.
How is there an extra 12 tril in gdp and deflation?
This doesn’t sound so smart in June 2022. It was a horrible prediction.
Deflation for the bubbly stocks that her funds own
Thank you God and mother nature
THANK YOU CATHIE FOR EXPLAINING DEFLATION , AND HOW THIS WILL EFFECT THE MARKETS.
Affect (verb), not effect (noun)
@@brianfong5711 thank you brian, have a good day. 🙂
Lol yeah that deflation really hit us
Cathy wrong again..🤣🤣🤣
So 40% increase in M2 in one year, is not inflationary beacuse......iN0vation?
Not even the central bankers makes that argument, and that ought to tell you something.
So tech and innovation will drive workers out and prices down too, since tech will boost productivity. What would happen to the purchasing power of individuals? would those displaced workers have other (higher-valued) jobs to go to? or will universal basic income take care of them?
Funny how the consensus is that we are in an inflationary environment, which would be bad for her funds, but she believes we're in a deflationary environment, which would be good for her funds 🤔
Is there really any question about this? I can't name one good that is as cheap as it was 5 or 10 years ago.
@@Grannyknockers My apartment :(
maybe because she invested wisely! I doubt she would call for something she wanted without some backing to it.
@@Grannyknockers Flat screen TVs are cheaper. paid $2200 for a 2015 Samsung 65" - now 2021 SAMSUNG 65" Class 4K = $700 , 2014 Mac Mini i7 was $999, paid 2020 Mac mini "M1" 8 CPU/8.
HP printers are a little cheaper
Wow recession coming, layoffs happening, wait..... is it.... i-i-is it possible that she was correct? All you youtube brainlets don't know more than her? IM SHOCKED HONESTLY SHOCKED 😲
Please explain to me how “Growth will be scarce” and “Deflation is the big risk” are consistent with “GDP will be 40T by 2040”. Am I missing something?
She is smoking weed.
She is Abby Joseph Cohen in this new era.
@@robbrand922 Probably something much stronger.
It means the MACHINES will be adequately more productive than human labors. Agenda 2030 - depopulation rings a bell now? This is the reason Trump said Globalization 4.0 is over. "They are after you. Am just standing in their way"
Tell that to my grocery bill
The hubris in these comments is embarrassing
*Why did she sell her TESLA stock if she believes its going to $3000* !!!!!!!?????
*maybe she thinks its going to 3000 Rupes* hahahaha...
She probably has a mandate of holding no more than around 10% in any one stock. So as TSLA increases in price she has to sell to balance. Check Arkk holdings, tesla is still the top one.
@@xMohJeex *makes sense if true*
She has to sell when position goes over 10% , Tesla was 12% in one of funds , stop spreading FUD
@@frenchbulldogsexoticfrench8201 *if something is going to 3000 , who cares if its 12% of the fund , why sell*
@@Slickpete83 they have to sale is an ETF Tesla is the biggest position with 10 % allocation
ummm...you kno everyone that chants deflation says its gonna be followed by hyperinflation
It's HERE Now, Recession,Stagflation Deflation, Inflation Next up Maybe Depression...
History, where living in it Now. Transition Period
Yes Innovation (GDP) will take sometime too catch up with Markets.
Why is deflation a risk if she says gdp will be 40 trillion by 2035?
I would add 3D printing as another technological innovation that will cause price drops.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
No
ark is a scam
Facts or sure does feel that way for sure
Facts are facts
🙃?
Inflation is always followed by deflation, especially high inflation like this one.
I'm curious what her timeline for this is? Does she expect it to be by that 2035 date?
Look for xmass
@@davidstrong7854 Xmass is shorting her predictions.
My does everyone consider her as the messiah of the investing world and reference her constantly. She has no process, buys high and sells low. Her funds are down 50-70% from their peaks. I will short everything she buys and do the opposite of what she does.
Cathie and her alternate reality
She really said that !!! Holly crap
Is it still deflationary or is it still trasitory? Oil price is going toward $100 per barrel. People wanting bond does not always imply deflation.
A good chess player is thinking several moves ahead of his opponent. Hint.
Deflation was caused by the supply chain issue. Inflation was the symptoms short term, now it's going into layoffs and rate hikes. People paying more into their debt vs spending on goods and services. All bad news for everyone. Fix the supply chain issue, you fix what was causing deflation (at least, before over leveraged companies start going under, then that's more issues towards deflation)
I hear she's cutting out and going to the Motherland because of the taxes... rake them over the coals but don't touch my money, right Cathie?
This aged well
To early. Deflation is the risk
Ohh! I Cannot change what I said earlier.
What will people think.
Let me continue with my wrong view.
At least I will be able to fool some people
There is a lot of deflation, specially on grocery stores. Deflation everywhere!
lots of deflation in housing, rents, and energy too!
Yes, taxes, insurances and education just dropping off a cliff also..
Rents are deflationary, especially in New York and California. Real Estate prices are high and investors are all trying to rent out homes. There's a huge disconnect. Deflation is happening in fast food, and will soon come to the grocery stores. The automation she's referring to may never play out as the world runs out of lithium and rare earth metals.
Deflation... Yeah sure. How about stagflation instead?
Even worse than companies levered up to pay dividends to their shareholders are companies levered up that never produce any profits. Innovation has to be accompanied with viable profits and honest corporate practices.
Cathie Wood: Next Big Risk Is Deflation - FUNNY
With all due respect, inflation is always a result of monetary causes. Real estate is in fact an inflation hedge. So is the stock market as well as crypto (as lon as they representa scarce assets). No deflación is possible with m1/m2 growing beyond real gdp growth. Automation has never (ever) been a driver for deflation. It can lower the price of a tv BUT people will spend the saving elsewhere.
When last time did you buy GPS navigator , Camera , compass , calculator , audio recorder , Game Boy??? All this things now in your phone that you can buy under $200
@@Bekssss the fact that I have a cheaper gps al los me to spend in a better shifter for my bike. Still spending the same amount as before. No deflationary effects. Deflation might eventual ley happen only If everybody decides to save the saving on calculators gps etc. But obviously that does not happen as long as comsumption goes somewhere else, together with their salary increase.
but theyre going to keep printing money obviously
47% of jobs will be lost to automation and AI by 2035. what they failed to mention is , for those 50% that kept their jobs, they will be rich, and the other 50% better pray and hope they can retrain, or steal enough to make a living. In the longer future most companies will only need 2 employees. a man and a dog. The dog will be there to make sure no one touches the equipment. and the man will be there to feed the dog. The productivity will belong to the Owner. :(
She seems to be saying nothing but a jumble of buzzwords.
Finally someone gets it
Woods, -- An absolute simplistic fraud to so many that don't understand how their being used .
Someone doesn’t understand the future, it’s okay bud.
I dont understand how we can reach deflation when we have printed a large amount of money and we also have a high demand for electronics and oil.
There are structural arguments for deflation. Again, not saying she isn’t a bit hyperbolic in her predictions. I think she can be wrong in the short-term but correct in the long-term. Finally, regarding the Quantity Theory of Money, printing money = inflation is not so simple when you look at the way that money was distributed and filtered down into the economy.
when you look back now. CPI 8.3% and she is talking about deflation
Could be more than 12 trillion, If even 20% of the current gdp has no room for innovations. I think its a lot more than 20%. Our GDP number has a lot of skeletons in its closet.
I like how she is so optimistic about it, I appreciate it that. So many people are negative about Innovation.
She also said oil will go under $25 last year! She is completely clueless. The only thing that made her popular was the Tesla call but she is completely delusional on every other subject!
Yesssss.... I will like to hear that answer also....!!??? 3000... No, i just sell it... So do you bye it again, and if yes.... WHEN.?? 🤣
If that's what she said, then she was right. Oil went negative in 2020
@@tshirtnjeans4829 she made that call late last year, the call was for 2021. she also made the wrong calls in China which let's be fair it was obvious they were going to keep tech giants under control. Her only right call was Tesla. Every other single call was an absolute mistake that even a newbie could avoid!
@@creepz6590 wait her tesla call id for 3000k or 3 trillion market cap lol
Cathie wood is a millionaire. The rest of you trying to tell her she's wrong or doesn't know what inflation or deflation is, you're that smart yet you're working at your local walmart and petco's??? Get the heck out of here clowns.
Deflation looks good for my bitcoin position 🤔
Crypto will be the first to pop.
U are exactly right, crypto will never burst, it will keep raising in what sort ever flationary...
@@MsSkydude Not what I mean, but believe what you want.
The only thing that will create downward pressure on prices is ample supply. Supply disruptions are certain to continue due to global energy shortages. This will persist at least thru this winter.
As this is like to create supply disruptions prices of goods will have an upward pressure until at least mid 2022. If governments continue to inject money in to the economy this will stimulate demand for limited supply of goods, hence increasing inflation.
They need all the inflation deflation is boss
They do not care about the regular joe.They will push us to the limit of revolt continually.Tossing us a bone to calm down,
The only reason she does aggressive PR it's because her stocks picks are only based on hype.
Transparency is good for the market especially when people like Cathie are not only the contributing driving forces for progress across industries but looking to reap the rewards from it as well. Win/Win.
Goods on there way out? What goods? If anything people are going to want more stuff plus the stuff they already have. I'll make a predictions. Assets like land and homes will see deflation (population declining faster then expected), all the little things you like will cost more cause less people will be available to make them.
...depends on where it is. Population is still increasing in a lot of places... and in some places, it's absolutely booming, as people leave Marxist hell holes and go where the opportunity is.
She’s completely off the mark. How is blockchain and DNA sequencing going to cause deflation?
Most people spend their money on Food and Energy…
These are definitely inflating. Its undeniable.
DNA sequencing, AI and Energy storage are not going to be deflationary for decades until we see their effects.
She is a self-exploitive derp who needs no introduction to her intent. Stay very far away, as Tesla stock owners now realize. Nothing worse than a fanatical hyp8crite.
To follow her ? if you read, study, learn ? Would make you a fool's fool. Cheers
Sees Deflation not Inflation: Wrong! Predicts 500k Bitcoin: Wrong! Then $1mil Bitcoin: Wrong! Bets big on Robinhood and Coinbase: Wrong! Tesla to the Moon: Wrong!
If you bet against ARK invest you would be up 40-50%
Never has someone been so consistently wrong about economy and stock picks. She needs to start a show with Jim Cramer and we can all take the other sides of their trades. 😀
Worst is she started her career in the late 70s well before I was born. A year ago even I at half her age knew the covid money would have. ramifications. She's been through it all yet seems to have learned nothing.
Talk about talking her book!
With fiat currency, widespread deflation is impossible. They'll print more if necessary to prop prices up.
Cathy says we are heading for deflation, Biden let’s out a pant ripping fart. Both very very wrong
Flash in the pan, she has no clue how to invest in an inflationary period. Long term she might be right, but she’s gonna feel some pain for a while now
I dunno about that man, you may be an old foggie that doesn't know tech.
@@SP-dw9gi yeah I’m 31 with a CFA and know how to do stock valuations unlike you new school kids who only look at the first line item on the income statement. But regardless, whipped ARKK easily last year buying old school pipelines like WES for $3 with a 35% dividend
@@thenorth8865 if you're so good at reading why didn't you notice in the prospectus that buying ARK funds implies owning 5+ years? Is that not long term enough for supply chain disruption/ inflation to play out?
It's not her fault if people don't understand the thesis behind owning her funds. Note: I don't own any ARK funds and don't agree with every investment she makes. I do own a few businesses that she also invests in.
@@liarzdice I could care less what her prospectus says. Valuing companies is valuing companies and she has 0 sense of what a discount rate is.
@@thenorth8865 WES? You want to compare numbers since you're a number guy. Ok, I respect that. Performance of WES vs ARKK dating back to 2014 (when both funds started tracking) it's WES -67% and ARKK +482%. Only more than 500% difference. You'd be better off investing in SPY/VTI than a business model that pays high dividends and lacks (any) growth.
aged like milk
I am not an expert . I don`t know if I agree with Cathie Wood. Right now it seems that all the pressure is up , in other words everything is pointing to more inflation. Maybe she is talking about five or ten years from now ???
Duh
@@WheresWaldo05 Duh ????????????????????
Someone please tell her to stop smoking weed
It’s January 30 2022, this call has aged like milk
Well this didn’t age well 🤣🤣
Cheap power makes water cheap.The Oceans and polluted sources will be useable.THINK
Not deflation but inflation!!
Yep.
Why would anyone listen to this woman? Maybe she's right but her flagship fund is down so big this year that it'll take a 200% rise to make up for what's happened to ARKK's portfolio.
Deflation, nobody is buying, inflation, people don't have enough money to buy, lololol
Inflation is Here now
Next up less supplies n less product for the Inflationary cost of goods. Double Wammyy
People are literally quitting their 16 dollar an hour job to go to McDonald’s for 17 an hour.
So until we get to 2035 What?? Food and energy will become obsolete??
No greatly changed.
Similar deflation happened in Japan which started in 1990's
Technological innovation will not decrease prices of commodities. The price of coal, gas, oil, iron, uranium, soybean are increasing for last 20 years. The agri output is stagnant.
Lol. She’s insane
Rich gonna be richer
This didn't age well. She doesn't no shit about macro economics.
argentians and venezuelands disagree about deflation been bad
Dear Cathy Wood, one recommended reading: In Praise of Idleness by Bertrand Russell
Take heed
Caitlin Jenner is unbelievably optimistic about the economy.
Is it to lough?
She needs to read more of Ray Dalio.
No, Roubini.
Him too.
This video is aging like wine
Either way the stock market will collapse 80% or more
So more people will be poorer, but rich are going to get very rich...like most of the money
Bruh homes, healthcare, cars, and food keep inflating wildly!
Agree with you 100%. I'm feeling the pinch as well. But what goes up has got to fall. Cathy is forecasting several moves past what others are focusing on.
I’m very glad to be young, basically own nothing to my name, and have a lot of excess capital right now. Hopefully prices start to tank.
How completely wrong she was!! not a wonder her fund is bleeding money
Housing falling and rising rates, her Supply Chain argument is flawed. Dismissal of Food, Energy, taxes, regulations discrediting her innovation.
"Too much money chasing too little assets." sure they are investing in unlisted companies but someday most of them must be listed. Then common people will have an opportunity to invest in them. till then I will enjoy this learning curve by observing.
By then the ‘common people’ won’t be able to afford to invest in those ‘elite’ companies.
Risk..agree...how about probability? If probability is 0.000XXX then it is just waste to discuss this topic. Just a BS talk...
Magical thinking……
very long way of saying "We are hoping for a miracle as we dont see way out"