My base case is something breaks 'in the next three months', says Komal Sri-Kumar
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- Опубліковано 5 вер 2024
- Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, why he believes the Fed will hold rates steady again at its next policy meeting because 'they just don't know what to do', and more.
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In 3 months, let’s all come back to this video.
They have said there would be a recession for over a year - these people are a JOKE
@@juanrestrepo302 for 3 years now ...
@@juanrestrepo302 for ~2yrs now...
@@juanrestrepo302fed policy takes a year to really take effect. There was also a horrible banking crisis that would have been systemic had they not essentially bailed them out. They already have broken things, we just don’t have any semblance of a free market anymore, and so everyone speculates out of control.
"Pay them more NOT to come to work".
@3:27
Just made my day.
Thanks
No jobs for them 😂😂😂
Crypto already did it :-)
Government clowns leeching off capitalism.
That could apply to most government officials these days.
I don't lose a penny when the market goes down, or get too excited when a day like today happens... I am not selling, won't touch the money I have invested for another 10+ years, that's investing my friends. I want throw in another $100k just curious where to diversify
Just because there are opportunities in the market does not we should dive in headfirst. which is why we should look out for proper market analysis/pointers or alternatively seek guidance from certified market strategists
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence I engaged the services of a true market strategist to help rejuvenate my $700k portfolio and boost performance and returns by 90% in a little over four years.
That's incredible! What did you invest in ? I'm really interested in this, because I'm in a similar position at the moment. more info needed please
'Heather Lee Larioni' deserves credit as one of the finest portfolio managers who decides what assets i acquire. Her reputation precedes her, and I highly recommend looking her up to locate her online if you are internet-savvy
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Heather Lee Larioni appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Now, fed funds futures markets are confidently indicating expectations of a Fed pause through this year, before a potential interest rates cut in March. The issue is how to properly allocate a $1m stock/bond ratio for steady gains, yet indicators are playing a trick on us.
for many years, bonds and other fixed-income assets have produced yields needed to provide solid income for financial needs, the importance of mitigating risks could be why investors are turning towards advisors for guidance
True, a lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good strategy to plan for uncertain times ever since the covid-19 pandemic crash, thus I engaged the services of a true market strategist. That has helped rejuvenate my $700k portfolio, boosting its performance over 140% as of today.
that's remarkable! i'm quite intrigued and would appreciate if you share additional details about your experience, or preferably the professional assisting you please
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Thank you for this, I must say, Nicole appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
I'd be interested to see the performance by dividend income for all of these players vs the S&P 500 too. Can it safeguard and grow $500k cash reserve for next 2 years at no risk?
I think you're better off with majority investment in S&P500 and uprising equities cos they always outperform. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on which to acquire
Right, when it comes to situations like this, it's ideal to engage in various options using an advisor, and I can attest to success of the basket approach seeing my portfolio grow from $350k to almost $1m in barely 3 years, by far my best financial milestone.
wow massive gains! my partner recently hinted on going same direction.. what did you invest in, and who is your investment advisr please, if you don't mind me asking? in dire need of asset allocation
Can't divulge much 'Monica Amanda McClure' deserves credit for my investing success as one of the finest financial planners out there, you should be able to locate her online if you are an internet-savvy.
I just came across her web page, I went through her resume and I must say it was quite impressive. I reached out to her and I have booked a session with her.
He's a wise man and the only one who speaks the truth, no BS.
A pessimist at best!
Nothings wise about his common opinion. You really think an automatized fed would solve all our problems?
In light of the impending recession and the fact that inflation remains above the federal reserve 2% target in this time of conflicts and war, several leading market analysts have expressed their views on how dire they believe the economy will be, next recession and how far stocks may go. I need advice on what investment to make because i want to build a portfolio for my children that will be worth at least 800,000 dollars
There are many interesting stocks in many industries that you could follow. You dont have to act on every Forcast. So i suggest you work with a financial advisor who can help you choose the best time to buy and sell stocks or ETFs you want to purchase.
Only a good FA guide will be enough to guide you through the current market volatility. I've been talking to an advisor for a while now, mainly because i don't have the experience or stamina to handle these recurring market conditions. The fact that he made over $30,000 proved that there is more to the market than the typical person is aware of. The best course of action now is to hire a financial consultant, especially for people who are nearing retirement.
Wow, would you mind telling me how i can use your service to get in touch with this financial advisor?
His name is Derrick Alan Sands.
He has been providing both entry and exit points for the values i focus on. You can make a quick check on him.
I was initially feeling skeptical to work with him but decided to give him a try and He really proved himself.
What then does he stand to gain in trading for people?
This guy is awesome! Have him on more.
Recessions start on average 22 months after interest rates start increasing. They started in April, 2022, that was 19 months ago. So the time line fits very well.
Good point but atightening cycle doesnt always result in recession though. 1994, 1984 tightening cycles didnt result in recession. 2019 tightening cycle didnt really cause the 2020 recession either, that was more covid than anything else.
True but recessions can be helped by events not known.
They started in March 2022, not April.
This dude said medicine is an art and not a science and they have the nerve to have him on television. Smh...
Best interview I've seen in a long time!
Great back and forth on this. I loved when Joe challenged him with, "do you know what to do?". Some good ideas presented. Great interview. The ending, wow!
We have way too much incompetence among America’s elites.
Sri spoke with Joe on Oct 23/23 (that's the date stamp on the video anyway), where he made the same prediction about "something breaking" soon. In that video he said the breakage would happen in 4-6 weeks. We have by now reached the four week mark. Sri has now in this video made the same prediction but extended the time for it to happen.
Base case is a probability - there is no 100% - and it's certainly valid to say "it's my base case that something will break in the next 6 weeks" then 6 weeks go by and the improbable happened (nothing broke), but conditions did not materially change, so then take a second look at it and saying "yes, still base case, even though the improbable happened recently" because the improbable happens all the time across all the probabilities playing out.
It's totally possible to be right, and still not have that play out. You can hit on 20 and pull an ace - that doesn't mean you made the right call, it means that the improbable played out and you got lucky. This is why investors hedge, trim, etc instead of continually push all-in at every new development. He's right, again, even if it doesn't play out, again. The stress on the market/banks/economy is still there, still real, still dangerous. At this point, escaping with a "soft landing" would be threading the eye of a needle, but sometimes needles get threaded.
J Powell has repeatedly said the same thing over and over. They are waiting for a signal that it would be wise to raise or lower. Doing so before hand at this point would only be guessing. Therefore, I don't mind the current wait and see methodology. They are acting based on data, so let them collect the data.
Agree
I think the reason that Taylor was not selected as Fed chair by Trump is because he would have imposed more discipline and the Fed would not be as accommodating to the markets.
Trump is a real estate guy. He owns a lot of real estate. Real estate directly benefits from inflation. Unfortunately those benefits do not accrue to everyone evenly.
I wish there was more of a focus to reduce the size of the Fed's balance sheet. Providing liquidity sometimes if ok but you have to unwind that.
Trump pumped the economy to help his re-election odds and Biden has been dealing with his inflation causing momentum ever since. You want to see massive inflation again bring back the orange man in a orange suit.
New highs in the market soon.
From here on out, things are only going to get tougher. The money supply is shrinking. I asked for my $13,000 from the bank in all 100s and the teller gave me almost 1000 in 50s. I literally cleaned them out of their 100 dollar bills😮
Fasten your seat belts kids, it is going to be a bumpy ride.
Great video! Example: Former Fed president Larry Sommers talks so openly and honestly now. Fed knows what needs to be done but they just can’t do their jobs because of politics. These guys are all politicians at the end of the day.
Go Sri!
So you are telling me that with falling inflation something will break? lets think here for a minute, isn't the reason for the higher rates and from that the risk of something breaking is all linked back to high inflation? SO if inflation is coming down and then rates can come down as well that's the time something breaks? I am just confused here.
This guy has been correct for the past two years. I hope he’s wrong here.
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"Medicine is definitely an art, not a science" Pretty sure that's the dumbest thing I've heard in a while
.... im glad somebody else said something.
The earth is 64 billion years old is dumber
Wow. how can he be on TV?
Medicine can also be manipulated by those who are in power, benefit their own interests. So the man is right. IMO, medicine is an art of manipulation. Take a took at Big Pharma, and those medical institutions most funded ones with hideous researches.
When people say "art not science" they mean it's a complex heuristic based decision instead of rules-based and medicine is exactly that. You are dealing with a complex human body and the environment and of course the human touch itself (care, placebo, hope).
In this context, Komal was contrasting Medicine vs Economic Policies.
If Medicine was Science (in the sense it's rules based), then you really don't need a doctor
No structure. Absolutely. We get horrified when the price of anything is not determined by the market. Yet we have outsourced the price of the most important commodity of all, money, to an unelected Committee that answers to anyone?
2:05 love Joe’s question- why not just do rules based system?
"Something breaks". Now that's deep analysis 😂
wheres jeremy siegel ?
Finally somebody telling it like it is.
I'm not some global strategist, but my guess is the FED will raise 0.25pct in mid Dec 2023.
How about NOT HAVING ANY CENTRAL PLANNERS and letting the FREE MARKET SET THE RATES!!!
Bitcoin is rules based monetary system. Bitcoin is inevitable
Housing starts typically slow for 3 years every cycle. Depending on when you start we are about 2 years into decline. Transactions will probably fall another 30 percent over the next year.
Until the economy has fallen into a recession, why would the Fed cut rates? The Fed suppressed interest rates to near zero for more than a decade. That's what put us into this mess in the first place. The Fed needs to adopt the idea of "first, do no harm"....
We have an independent fed. What Trump did was unethical and unprecedented
@@grod805 "we have an independent fed" & "what Trump did..." You are making two assertions that are mutually exclusive. Based on your lack of logic and reason, I'm guessing you vote left...
talking about "rules-based" central bank policy, is talking about bitcoin
Worst thing you can do is nothing
People say this too
Brilliant... Close the Fed basically.
It always amazes me that people think the Fed, made up of some of the largest banks in the world, and backed by the world reserve currency, doesn't know what it is doing.
I don't think it's a question of if they know what they're doing, so much as a question of who are they actually working for.
What makes you think they do know what they're doing? Recent history says othewise.
Quantative Easing for 15 years is just too much. We are at the most housing affordable point in history.
Man aint wrong, same time frame of 2022 crash which started on Jan 31st 2022.
"Stupid things they do". Like calling it 'transitory', failing to act for a whole year when the business community was shouting to raise rates, and failing to secure our long-term debt when interest rates were on the floor. Answer: "Bureaucracy". Governmentalists who benefit from growth in government.
Should raise them and go on to next phase I'm 24
Consumers are broke. That's what broke.
None of these guests know anything. They just blow hot air.
when you see all these "experts" calling for the sky falling, then guess what, most probably is not going to fall
Nothing broke yet
There’s no relief for the hit to equities short-term, says Sri Kumar - JAN 3 2023
In February and March I think we'll sell off like always. I'll be 50% cash by then
good i thought all the bears were gone
❤ nice man… people should listen to his very last comment lol
Relax
Listening to some of these guys speak on CNBC and how way off they are from reality, it makes me wonder who gives these guys their hard-earned money to manage? Since last several months Komal Sri Kumar has been calling for something to break......His suggestion of a predictable monetary policy is kind of an oxymoron. Since their start, financial markets have been unpredictable and rates even more so ! That creates opportunities as well both on long and short side. Markets wont be exciting if they suddenly become very predictable !
He is right, the Fed has never known. Praise God! Make them stay home.
Go with “…Fixed income, not positive for equities.” “…something in the next three months”. He is throwing it out there. It’s not good. Nothing has been fixed and with a house of cards economy, it’s reasonable.
Becky lost this argument!!!!
Stocks extended their year-to-date rally following the CPI report, with the S&P 500 last up 0.8% in afternoon trading. but I don't know if stocks will quickly rebound, continue to pull back or move sideways for a few weeks, or if conditions will rapidly deteriorate.I am under pressure to grow my reserve of $250k.
It's really hard to beat the market as a mere investor. It's just better if you invest with the help of a professional understands the market dynamics better.
Picking stocks is a risky thing to do, particularly for non-professionals. I learnt that in 2020, when I lost almost everything. But I switched to using a financial advisor and I've been returning at least $38k every month so I’ve been sticking to investing via an Advisor.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
LINDA PEREZ LEWIS
That’s my licesed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later!
Thanks, I merely looked her up on Google and was highly impressed by her credentials; I got in touch with her because I need all the help I can get. I just set up phone call.
We have an independent fed. What Trump did was unethical and unprecedented
Everything he does is unethical and unprecedented
The fed speaks and they back whatever they say why doesn't someone ask a question that makes sense we get a bunch of excuses for why they did what they did right or wrong horrible reporting
kumar from Harold and kumar has aged quite a bit
Medicine is an art not science!!!! 😅😅😅 Not sure what kind of doctors this guy is visiting!!!! 😂😂😂😂
This guy’s the total opposite of Tom Lee from Fundstrat lol. He’s all sky is falling and Tom’s bullish AF on equities.
Give me a break. We don’t need an algorithm determining monetary policy. Horrible idea
Boomers don’t know anything
Why?
Joe kernan needs to just be quiet...so annoying
Im returning in 90 days. Place your bets now. See yall then
You just can't time the markets. #fact
Maybe you cant,but you can rebalance a well diversefied global portofolio and reduce the overhyped stocksectors!
The Federal government under the Biden administration is trying to maintain spending programs, but interest rates on the Federal Debt are rising and the Federal Reserve is matching their interest rates with the economy in hopes of slowing the economy. The Federal government and the Federal Reserve are in a standoff; if the Federal government continues to spend and borrow beyond it’s means of payment, then, the Federal Reserve will be force to raise interest rates or start borrowing (printing Money again).
money supply has to expand faster than the rate at which prices are rising for existing assets to hold their value. this has been done with debt instruments of varying quality over the last 40 years. how the american economy has been operating at a loss is that commercial programming and space operations behave as a loss leader, fortified by legacy cost barriers, enabling population control to be priced in. The nixon administration's exit from the bretton woods agreement to barrels of oil untethered the supply of money from reality, compounded further by the reagan budget, that untethered the money supply from taxes. the airspace has to be democratized because consumer adooption of digital technology cannibalized radio and television audiences disabling their ability to eat losses generated from corporate and government borrowing.
😎No worry. I use stock options to protect my portfolio and profit from.
Get ready. I avoid bank stocks.
He has been consistently wrong
A fool.
His basis is Taylor Formula: Put in a growth rate higher or lower than what you desire. Than, put in inflation higher or lower than what you desire.
What I desire times growth rate equals infinity times what I desire. Then put in rate of inflation (+or - or x or /) by what I desire times infinity equals common sense. If you can't explain it, you are a fool.
This is word salad, not wisdom.
The most interesting thing he said is that something will ( I would have said may) break in the next few months and then we will have big troubles. But he does not know what. If he does not know, why should Powell know?
...No one knows, which is why Powell has reiterated time and time again that he is going to hold here and see what happens. Something will definitely break soon, hikes were done at an insane pace.
Powell has better and more complete data, including the results of real-time stress tests to economic inputs at each of the major banks. I don't know that "break" implies a black swan event; more like "breaking the stagnation" and something starting to unwind. Most of the current economic conditions are being held up by federal policy (the Fed, plus US Gov measures). That cannot go on forever.
I think the Fed is well aware that something will "break", but there are no signs that they know which sector/issue goes first. I think the reason they've pushed rates to high, and refuse to let them down, is because they want to use rate cuts as a stimulus to stave off a domino effect. As someone else said, "Powell is loading the monetary bazooka" every time they raised rates. Unfortunately, that is about the only tools they have left. Which is scary. They've painted themselves into a rough corner.
Powell should know and he knows as he has access to more data, stressed banks are coming to him to get funds.
If Sri-Kumari's thesis is correct, the Democrats are guaranteed to lose the White House and both chambers of the legislature during the 2024 elections. Moreover, the entire FOMC is likely to be forced to retire.
Investors need to consider how likely that is. I do not believe this will play out as he suggest. Thus I recommend retail investor to continue to invest long term into the Mag Seven stocks who have effectively no debt. I like Tesla stock at these low prices and their remarkable ability to grow unit sales despite this business environment.
I reiterate my thesis that the S&P will be trading between 5,000 and 5,500 in the first half of 2024. This is consistent with the historical trend following the 50% retracement from a bear market low.
lol
"Normally" an economic downturn favors the Party not in power....but these are far from "normal" times. Normally, the party not in power has a good showing in midterms, which did not happen this year. I think the broken GOP party (lead by a criminal) skews the odds in favor of the Dems even if Sri-Kuman's Base Case proves correct.
Trump needs to ship this guy back to India 🤣
@@juanrestrepo302 It's very difficult to have anything shipped while locked up.
Hasn't he been wrong for the last few years?
And?Just because you was wrong dosent mean you are wrong again!And the opposit is also true!
All you need is to be correct one time
this guy sounds like a bitcoin bull
He’s always wrong check out his takes from old clips
Komal?
Just like the analysts who kept calling $100 crude for 8 months
Thats why he is correct. He is due for a correct take
Just buy BTC and hodl
Den da guvment would loose power….money printing would no longer be an option
Wth is Apu saying?
wrong