Bridgewater's Ray Dalio: U.S. nearing 'inflection point' where our debt problem could get even worse
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- Опубліковано 16 лис 2023
- Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder and CIO mentor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of U.S.-China relations, China's military agenda and social media influence, state of the U.S. economy, Treasury yields, A.I. impact, and more.
With inflation at 3.70%, I'm looking to enter the market now and ride it out as the economy improves. I'm putting together a $350,000 portfolio with Stocks and ETF's. Do you have any recommendations with solid cash flow?
we shouldn't act on every forecast. It is best you speak with a market expert before making any investment decisions.
You're right, I and a few Neighbors in Bel Air Area work with an advisor who prefers we DCA across other prospective sectors. Instead of a lump sum purchase, Following this, my portfolio grew 40% in the last quarter.
I'm curious to give this a try. Please who is your advisor and how do I get in touch?
Well, I chose *Jennifer Leigh Hickman* as my advisor after her interview on CNBC In 2020. She is SEC regulated with offices in the US and quite frankly a genius with portfolio diversification.
I just found her webpage and read through her educational background and qualifications, which were all very impressive. So I scheduled a call with her.
We can't ignore the potential impact on portfolios. Bonds are often considered a safe haven, and if they crumble, investors like me might scramble. I’ve been investing for 11 yrs and my $1m portfolio has never been this depleted, how i do hedge this?
In fact, markets have incorrectly priced in such a pivot six times over the last two years, according to Deutsche Bank, which sounded cautious about this seventh time. Still showing us why pointers from market experts are essential
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I needed a good boost to stay afloat, hence I engaged the services of a true market strategist to help rejuvenate my $700k portfolio and boost performance and returns by 40% in a little over four years.
@andersonedward787 impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
I'm being guided by “Leila Simoes Pinto’’ who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
In every crisis, there is an opportunity," as the saying goes. The 2024 recession, while challenging, presents unique avenues to amass wealth. First, it's essential to remember Warren Buffet's advice: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." During recessions, assets often undervalue. By investing wisely in stocks, real estate, or businesses during this downturn, you position yourself for significant returns during the economic recovery.
An obvious way to invest for a recession is to buy shares in businesses that are likely to experience steady demand even in a downturn. Typically, those are consumers staple, utilities and healthcare companies. But of course, such decisions can’t be made by an average joe, a financial advisor is highly recommended in making this decisions..
Since the outbreak of 2020, which had a significant impact on the market, I've been running all of my investment decisions through an investment coach because their entire philosophy is centered around using a high-profit oriented blueprint while simultaneously going long and short, as well as reducing risk exposure as a hedge against inevitable downtrends. Underperforming is almost impossible when combined with their access to strange data and analysis.
Please who’s this Financial advisor that guides you?
Natalie Marie Tuttle is my Advis0r. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I concentrate on. If you want to check her out, you may do so online. I usually trade in accordance with her strategy.
Thanks, I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
The system is failing as a result of both government and federal policy. In the next days, the banking crisis would have to be epic and gigantic for the FED to decide not to raise interest rates. This won't happen; an increase and a crash are coming. There will be more negative portfolios this 2nd half of 2024 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
Just ''buy the dip'' man. In the long term it will payoff. High interest rates usually mean lower stock prices, however investors should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder
Very true, you can be passively involved in the markets and still amass wealth-gains using an investment advisor. I first dabbled in stocks late 2019, just before the pandemic, and that same year gained over 150% with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was following directions of my advisor. We are working on a retirement ballpark of $3m and I’m certain my goal isn’t farfetched after subsequent investments and tremendous returns so far.
Mind if I ask you to recommend this particular coach you using their service?
The advisor that guides me is Sonya lee Mitchell, most likely the internet is where to find her basic info, just search her name. She's established.
thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Well, I suggest you make a diversification plan because it's been harder to build a good portfolio that stays afloat since COVID. Personally, I garner knowledge from a brokerage Adviser whom I work with, and I've actually made over $350K with their help since February. Very effective defensive strategies are used to protect my portfolio and make profits despite the ups and downs.
I find this intriguing. Could you please provide me with the means to get in touch with your Adviser? I am concerned about my dwindling portfolio.
Can't divulge much “Margaret Johnson Arndt” is the advisor that oversees my portfolio. She's an extremely intelligent person, very thoughtful, cautious, and has an outstanding credentials, it's easy to find her on the web.
@@RaymondKeen. We need more context here. $350K would be 35% on a 1 million portfolio, which would be really great, but only 3.5% of 10 million, not so good!
I just looked her up on the internet and found her webpage with her credentials. I wrote her a outlining my financial objectives and planned a call with her.
We experienced the peak of our era, and now it is gone. Recession is tanking everything including 401K. My retirement equities portfolio of $750K is in the reds. I keep losing because of inflation. This world will fall to the corrupt rulers in the same way that Rome did. I'm sorry if you're thinking about retiring and you're worried that your pension won't be enough to meet the rising cost of living. Horrible foreign policies everywhere, bad regulatory policy, bad fiscal policy, and bad energy policy.
I'm really concerned about the future and where all of us are going, particularly with regard to finances and making ends meet. I'm thinking about investing in the stock market for the first time, but how can I do that considering that the market has been in disarray for the most of the year?
After the pandemic, things became extremely difficult, which is precisely when I sought a consultant's counsel. I've been investing on my own for nearly 3 years and have built up a stagnant reserve of $280K to $570K in just over 24 months.
“Kaitlin Rose Sternberg” oversees my portfolio, simply do your due diligence. She's an extremely intelligent person, very thoughtful, cautious, and shows a great deal of expertise with over two decades of experience in her line of work.
@@stevensmiddlemass2072 don't listen to these clowns. The US economy is going nowhere but up. Just Dollar Cost Average across index funds, and you'll do fine. The US is energy independent, has no enemies at its borders, and has a stable demographic. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency, because the US has the largest blue water navy to enforce global trade. And even as the US pulls away from the Middle East because it no longer needs to prop up psychotic Saudi rulers to meet its energy demands, it will nearshore even more of its manufacturing, and expand value add manufacturing in its borders.
Invest in the US, and ignore investors like Dalio who are beholden to China for their wealth.
What are you talking about?! Economy is going to explode in the next 5-10 years because of multiple innovations like AI and people will not even need to work anymore, because AI will be too good.
Hit 200k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in June 2022
Mrs harriet dixson service is a talk of the town in North Holland Netherlands , I started with a little amount of 1ETH, and she made huge returns, and I have been constantly investing with her
Please educate me, l've come across this name before and Now I'm interested, how can I connect with her?
@@Michael12627she often interacts on Telegrams, using the user below
@Harrietdixson12
Tell her I referred you
I can't hide her contact information from anyone who is interested in investing with her because she has really helped me a lot with my trade, today I am smiling
The market is viewed differently by different people; some believe it is overvalued because of recent gains, while others argue that high valuations are justified by solid economic fundamentals. Given the index's growing concentration in tech, the notable rise in tech stocks makes me nervous about my $600K portfolio. What I want to know is which stocks will grow the fastest over the next ten years-perhaps the APPL?
Yes, transportation, e-commerce among other sectors are expected to experience growth, but who knows, the market has been a basket of surprises and investing in the stock market is quite daunting especially for amateurs, you can choose to handle your own stocks or pay a professional
Indeed. During times of market uncertainty, it is imperative to maintain a diversified and well-balanced portfolio. When the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2019, I turned to market experts for guidance. By implementing their suggestions, my $1 million portfolio has increased by 45% as of right now.
Who is the mentor who gives you advice? I need help immediately because my stock portfolio is stagnating and I need advice on investments.
I'm being guided by Aileen Gertrude Tippy who is widely recognized for her competence and expertise in the financial market. She has a thorough understanding of portfolio diversification and is regarded as an authority in this field.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find on web your coach Aileen Gertrude Tippy, Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Get rid of Andrew he never let's his guests finish their sentences
Since the debt crisis could unleash carnage on the stock market leading to economic downturns. We need to be prepared for potential market volatility. how can I secure my $600K stock portfolio against declining?
From what I've read, it seems to be a mix of factors. High government debt, corporate debt, and even personal debt are contributing to the instability. It's like a perfect storm. You should contact an expert to help you allocate stocks in your portfolio
I talk a lot about how important it is to have an advisor.This kept me afloat and increased my $450,000 portfolio by 48% in just 4 months.They have strategies that are tailored to your long-term goals and your desired financial situation.
Pls who is this coach that guides you? I’m in dire need of one, my stock portfolio is declining even in a bulll market.
Credits to *Kaitlin Rose Sternberg* one of the best portfolio manager;s out there. she;s well known, you should check her out.
I looked up her full name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her; hopefully, she gets back to me.
Investors should be willing to take risks with their exposure when considering new investments, particularly during periods of inflation. It is advisable to seek guidance from a professional or trusted advisor in order to navigate this recession and achieve potential high yields
I don't think I need a finance advisor. I can manage my own money and investments. I don't want to pay someone else to tell me what to do with my hard-earned cash.
@@JasonAmir-qo4uo That's a risky attitude, My friend. You might be missing out on some valuable opportunities and strategies that a finance advisor can offer. A finance advisor can help you plan for your short-term and long-term goals, optimize your tax situation, diversify your portfolio, and avoid costly mistakes.
@@TheDuke792 I agree with You. A finance advisor can also provide you with objective and unbiased advice, especially when you are facing emotional or stressful situations. They can help you stay on track and avoid making impulsive decisions that can harm your financial future.
@@JasonAmir-qo4uo I used to think like you. I thought I knew enough about finance and investing to handle everything myself. But then I realized that I was spending too much time and energy on researching, analyzing, and monitoring my finances. I was also overwhelmed by the amount of information and options available. I decided to hire a finance advisor and it was one of the best decisions I ever made. They saved me a lot of time and money, and gave me peace of mind.
how did you find a good finance advisor? How do you know if they are trustworthy and competent?
The financial system has been artificially pumped for over a decade to ensure big pockets were lined; and now those same hands will make a fortune in the largest transfer of wealth in human history by shorting it on the way down. Inflation does have a roll, but that's to keep everyone panicked, and focused on their bills and expenses, rather than focus on the capital crimes of politicians and corporations,I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $338k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market??
The current situation is incredibly dire for people in the United States and other countries. The global economy is facing a significant downturn, with increasing inflation rates and unemployment figures.
This seems like the worst period.Even the markets are very unpredictable.started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today i am more than 60% down
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go. Based on a direct encounter with a CFP named Kate Elizabeth Amdall, I can say with certainty that their skills are excellent. She helped raise over $580,000 in 18 months from an initially stagnant portfolio of $150,000
Fantastic! can u share more details?
Cant reveal much info, she is the shrewd advisor responsible for my portfolio success, it's only right you look her up and confirm yourself.
The guys from CNBC are always asking their guests whether the stock market goes up or down next day. Neither they nor their audience are interested in understanding the mid/long-term dynamics of the financial system. For Ray its a waste of time answering these questions. Jim Cramer fits well to their audience ;-)
I can’t agree more!
Cramer is an investor - he's literally the opposite of what you're describing. He works on CNBC because he's passionate and makes definitive calls. Dalio is a teacher/student of systems that are complicated machines, and discussing them in 8 minute segments doesn't make any sense. Both of his books are 500+ page tomes.
Short-termism
Yep. All they care about is day to day. When this thing collapses they will act as if they didn't see it coming even though Ray has been telling them this for years. That day is fast approaching and there wont be an announcement. Most will lose everything and all hell will break loose
@@chrissalley9468 The "broken clock" refrain will be CNBC's excuse for Ray being correct. This is a cop-out that economic illiterates use to divert the focus and attention of their audience away from the gestalt of the economic arguments presented by Ray and other forecasters who got it right. They do not want their audience to become cognizant of the fact that the reasoning behind why a forecast turned out to be correct is more important, substantively than if it pans out in the end, without having an argument to support it. One can be right for the wrong reasons. Most of CNBC's common audience doesn't understand this basic idea, and it is this group whom they pander to and pitch their propaganda to non-stop.
I'm fascinated by how Dalio talks so much whilst saying so little. It's a talent.
Ukraine needs more money!!!
Instead of outright telling you the answer, he provides a thorough explanation of the fundamentals, assuming you'll then understand his position. If your sponge is saturated, you won't pick up anything from him.
Incredibly long winded.
@@TheNotrac a little extra explanation for the Americans is never a bad idea
Thank You!!! He never says ANYTHING ......
Ray's brain was moving faster than his mouth😂...
he's in his 70s...so....
Hmmm I have to say neither was moving very well.
@@stephanieroberts1394 We know all about Ray’s credentials. What are yours.
But my grandpa has wright
Dalio saying the house has a termite problem, Sorkin worried about interest rates. I'm still at a crossroad regarding whether or not to liquidate my $138k stock portfolio. What’s the best way to take advantage of this current market?
Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
I agree with you. I started out with investing on my own, but I lost a lot of money. I was able to pull out about $200k after the 2020 crash. I invested the money using an analyst, and in seven months, I raked in almost $673,000
@@VanPelt54u7fcyde57 Would you mind telling me how to contact this specific coach using their service? You seem to have the solution, as opposed to the rest of us.
There are many financial coaches who excel in their profession, but for the time being, I employ Monica Amanda McClure because I adore her methods. You can make research and find out more.
I was ready to set up a session with her after seeing her website instantly when I looked for her name on Google. So far, it's interesting stuff.
Imagine the patience Ray must possess having to explain how it works to reporters of Cartoon Networks like they were children.
I admire that more than anything.
Dalio is not a great speaker. It takes him a lot of sentences to get a concept across.
@@peredavithey are not simple concepts
Dalio is wrong, but it's not because he doesn't understand the topic. He just wants to ensure that congress cuts social programs instead of allowing the 2017 tax cuts to expire. Those tax cuts as a former VP said are "priority number 1." So, Dalio unveils his theory about "investors needing a specific percentage on top of inflation," but that is incorrect since it overlooks the absolute difference between investment choices. In a soft landing scenario wherein the economy is contracting, safe havens ie government bonds hedge against loss on top of the coupon rate. That's why during the great recession we saw the negative yield phenomenon. And not to mention Dalio is also giving a nod perhaps unknowingly to Karl Marx's Labor Theory of Value since that also relied on an arbitrary expectation of surplus value. In practice pricing is relative to an infinite number of factors since after all predicting prices is akin to predicting the market itself.
@@tuberific454 I wonder who I would believe more … famed and successful investor Ray Dalio or random Internet, dude, who just spewed a bunch of gobbledygook
@vjbhatia77 There's nothing I've said that isn't easily verifiable. You might start with how negative yields work. Dalio didn't mention that, and yet they're exactly what happen to safe haven debt during periods of uncertainty.
This guy is the master of explaining things in simple terms lol
NO! He is not. He is pitching this because he is likely short USD
@@bigmoose143 .. what is your financial advice . Moron
@@bigmoose143lots of these you tube gurus are betting everything will crash. It's self fulfilling for them. They hope and will then cash in. But that's capitalism. Truth would be good.
@bigmoose143 he is speaking facts on the metrics. Human tendencies aren't going to change, and the markets aren't going to be leveraged by a 2 min segment on MSNBC.
@@bigmoose143 Nothing he said was wrong from an economic fundamentals point of view. The common refrain is that the rich guy must be talking his book, right? That's the kind of one-dimensional thinking characteristic of someone criticizing a person's solution to a calculus problem without having a fundamental knowledge of basic algebra.
Ray is very experienced and knows his stuff
I have several of his books.
I love it when he comes on cnbc
Sorkin worried about interest rates. Dalio saying the house has a termite problem
100% correct.
The first video on CNBC that I actually understood
Dalio is going on year 4 of his “things are about to get ugly” world tour. He has a 100% chance of being right, eventually.
He’s always been alluding that China will take over becuz of the debt cycle and history always repeats itself. Dude needs take break. There are problems with US balance sheet but in no way China will take the spot.
LMAO Exactly. Just another blowhard talking up his book again.
Considering how life for the average American has gotten progressively worse since 2019, he's been right the entire time...
The government can't afford World War and is playing with fire with China. Debt crisis likely into Q1-Q2 2024.
Has it only been 4 years? Seems like a lot longer.
Reading his book on the rise and fall of empires. I'm learning that much of the game is just understanding where you are in the story arc
Thank you very much...
Have huge respect for Ray how he patiently explain to the reporter!!!!
He has the guts to tell the unpleasant truth.
if he was strong, he’d have been hitting this BEFORE we got here .. but that would’ve taken courage. now it’s just common knowledge. no courage needed
@@mloverineRay has been telling it how it is for years.
Translation: the economy is in serious trouble
Well done.
If you look at the stock prices in some sectors and oil prices, it is showing we are in recession but bond appetite is not increasing. How does he put up with these questions???
If the demand for bonds is going down,you have to offer higher rates until the are becoming more attractiv for investors!
Impeccable
Dalio: "Were at the end of the fiat paper scam. 5 trillion is due and we have no buyers for these ShitBonds. We can even pay interest on the previous debt"
Sorkin: "So whats your take on interest rates for the next 3 months?"
Let's look at how the important issues like the illegal immigrants invading our country, the lgbq and the blm movements ,the bank failures, the stockmarket meltdown ,the over printing of the currency, failed Democratic policies .In reality the only thing the politicians are concerned with is how much money the lobbyists feeding there pockets amount to.WE HAVE THE BEST POLITICIANS IN THE WORLD THAT MONEY CAN BUY. HELLO
This whole system is gonna collapse in about a 72 hour period and all hell is gonna break loose
What happens when nothing is based on real goods, when the entire economy depends on the fear of missing out, rather than production, supply and demand?
As soon as people realize they've missed out, they stop buying the useless worthless paper and digital funny money on the stock market.
@@chrissalley9468good boomer greed will make it survival of the fittest therefore destroying them, because they're who caused it. Then cooperation and wealth equality will cause a more equal growth of the economy from scratch out of fear from returning to what will be remembered as "the bad times" and it will all be written in stone that the greed of boomers caused the downfall of the once great United states and most western democracies.
Near? NEAR? Ray...we are beyond recovery. We as a nation cannot economically recover from our debt.
I wish the hosts would stop interrupting Ray period! They should just listen when he talks and give him as much time as he needs!
Supply/demand of treasuries means interest rates should remain high for longer period.
Demand will only go down if trust in the stability of the US economy and its goverment to solve problems is going down!Its also importend if there are better alternatives to invest in other goverment bonds around the globe!
This is gonna have a horrible ending that we are fast approaching. God help us all when it gets here because all hell is gonna break loose
Always good hearing Ray speak.
The guy is a snake oil salesman. Theres a new book called The Fund which talks about his business.
Lmao he’s terrible
@@Colkev2024He hasn't got a clue what he's on about. He's an old broker pretending to be a genius who can foresee great events LOL Once you realise that his business makes perfect sense, he knows how to BS clients, but little else, hence his mediocre returns.
He states the obvious which in this day and age is already better than most non sense said daily by all media and analysts
And it goes without saying that the vast majority of our corrupt, reckless politicians never mention this elephant in the room. This is probably the most important issue the US will have to face in the next decade burt, no, our pols much prefer legislating on the correct pronouns to use to not offend their woke voters.
It’s just musical chairs one clown gets out and another clown gets in and whoever’s left when the music stops is going to have to face that music of a debt we can’t service without massive inflation, a default, or people only asking for interest below inflation (negative real rates of inflation) or actually producing more than is consumed.
The rule is if CNBC mocks and scoffs at their guests' economic opinions, you are likely in a position to correctly choose whose opinion is more likely to be correct.
It's catching up. People are not spending money on other things than necessities
Roll the dice, there’s no fear like the unknown.
The government currently lacks concrete strategies to address inflation. Inflationary pressures are impacting various sectors, including stocks, housing, and commodities, causing their prices to rise. It is not advisable to keep your money idle and wait for a market crash. Instead, it is prudent to put your money to work by starting with cautious investments and gradually increasing your pace as prices decline further. Withdrawing a significant amount of money, exceeding $500K, from my account at this time presents a challenging decision.
Nevertheless, there are certain investors who are still managing to generate substantial returns despite the unfavorable market conditions. Achieving similar results requires skill and expertise.
As the market continues to experience a downward trend, I have been diligently researching various strategies. Surprisingly, it appears that there are equal opportunities to achieve substantial gains in both bullish and bearish market conditions. I have come across stories of individuals who have managed to earn as much as $300k during this market downturn, and I am eager to uncover the tactics and approaches they employed to achieve such impressive results.
Undoubtedly, fiduciary counselors possess exclusive access to proprietary information and data sources that are not accessible to the general public. Under the guidance of my trusted fiduciary counselor, Camille Anne Hector , I successfully generated approximately $560k in net profits during the third and fourth quarters of 2022. With such promising results, I am eagerly anticipating the potential for further growth and success in the future.
Educative Convo if I may ask this Mrs Camille you speak highly about does she accept beginners?
Yes of course, Find Camille Anne Hector online, then get in touch with her. She’s well renowned for her work as a consequence of a recent Bloomberg piece. She has a homepage devoted to consultations, so you'll need to ask her about her rates.
Ray has been predicting a ‘depression’ non stop, since the 70s. He wants nothing more than to have an “I told you so” moment, should that prediction ever come true. No one calls him out for being wrong for 50 years
That's not what he is talking about here. He's talking about a debt spiral of unknown length.
Its a journey to a destination that most wont be prepared for when it happens.
You’re so wrapped up looking at a little tree you’re forgetting to see the whole forest. It doesn’t matter who’s right and wrong. Even a broken clock is correct twice every day.
there's a new book out called 'The Fund' that's critical of him. written by a former WSJ reporter and current NYT guy who has interviewed him a lot before
Jim Rogers the same thing
“Yields are coming down!” -.25-.5% big moves indeed.😅
Mr. Dalio has so much experience
Let’s keep up the education. It’s so important we all play our part in advocating for Bitcoin.
I’m a BTC maxi although as a big advocate for individual freedoms I also hold Filecoin which I don’t in any way see as an alt to BTC, but rather a utility token which holds real promise with a project that is making money and scaling fast.
Money is devaluing to infinity. Data storage demand is growing to infinity. Bitcoin for decentralised money. Filecoin for decentralised data storage. Both hugely important for humanity.
With markets tumbling, inflation soaring, the Fed imposing large interest-rate hike, while treasury yields are rising rapidly-which means more red ink for portfolios this quarter. How can I profit from the current volatile market, I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $125k bond/stocck portfolio.
The market is volatile at this time, hence i will suggest you get yourself a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
very true, I started investing before the pandemic and that same year I pulled a profit of about $600k with no prior investing experience, basically all I was doing was seeking guidance to make a from a financial-advisorr, you can be passively involved with the aid of a professional.
wow ,that’s stirring! Do you mind connecting me to your advisor please. I desperately need one to diversified my portfolio.
LINDA PEREZ LEWIS
That’s my licesed Financial advisor you can easily look her up, Thank me later!
Thanks, I merely looked her up on Google and was highly impressed by her credentials; I got in touch with her because I need all the help I can get. I just set up phone call.
The point Ray makes that I continue to reflect on, is that at some point U.S. debt service will encroach on spending while in parallel investors begin to question our strength and ability to repay our debt. Demand for Treasury debt drops... interest rates will need to rise to attract enough investors... etc. Who knows how exactly that will play out, but I think it's coming. We cannot continue forever spending more than we earn.
🎉Hit £200k today. I'm really grateful for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with £20,000 June 2022❤️
Yeah that's right i think the best watch is to invest with a professional, at least it saves the trauma of too much losses. This just surprised me because i also invest with expert mrs Rose Dawson
Same here, I'm happy i was financially guided by Rose Dawson which helped me take a bold steps in investing in crypto market and now earning up to £40,000 every single week
I believe him; interest rates are going through the roof, people believe cuts are coming, and bid to cover ratio for treasuries are the same which was different than 08. Dalio is the best NT archetype that can be achieved.
Can the broad base of the American middle class buy up all the bonds the government needs while it works down it's debt problem? That would be an argument for increasing American middle class' wages through benefits given via issuing people bonds they cannot cash out until a certain point of maturity, maybe around 5 years. The government could negotiate this with companies that can stand to afford it or else the dreaded t-word, considering that a lot of government debt goes to private contractors like Lockheed Martin, Northrup, and such.
Interest rates need to stay at their level probably for a year if not longer. Until the zombie sector is flushed out, real value companies are sought after in the meantime and lifted by private capital reserves, and the middle class sees a rise in standards and a restoration in its proportionality of total wealth comparable to more prosperous. Otherwise the whole economy can be labeled a failure, and unable to repair itself in the ways that brought it to this period in history to begin with, and at that point expect a turn for the worse.
@@user-hf2dr7sh4y Yes debt can be worked down. We can balance the budget like Clinton did in the 90s. Also he didn't say interest rates are going through the roof. He said they would probably be slightly down in a year or so.
@@user-hf2dr7sh4y No, if the American debt is entirely funded domestically without foreign involvement, the interest rates will be much higher. No American gov't have operated with a sustained increasing interest rates for more than a couple years since the 1980s, but I might need to look at the chart just to be sure.
WSJ has an article out today. It is titled (Where Have All the Foreign Buyers Gone for U.S. Treasury Debt)
Isn’t the federal reserve the largest owner of US debt?
Should have asked him about the expose book about him and his firm :)
Could anyone share with me what is the solution for US debts?
The debt IS our number one problem.
Fascinating that NONE of our politicians are concerned about this.
When ray speaks, let him finish and no questions pls.
I’m reading a book about this guy. He is certifiable.
The Fund?
@@tonyb313Dalio.
stay reading
He has the guts to tell the unpleasant truth.. The debt IS our number one problem..
Ray is screaming Bitcoin without saying Bitcoin.
Ray is saying that the US has a debt so high that we cannot borrow money fast enough to cover the interested payment so the debt will spiral out of control. Exactly the same as when an individual has a credit card debt that and their salary is too small to cover even the interest. Very simple.
Simple enough to be wrong. The Govt is exactly like the Banker in Monopoly game - they issue the currency. We, on the other hand, are currency constrained.
dalio wholesome as a granddad
But the modern monetary theorists said we could print money forever with no consequences??
Inflection Point on the Horizon ! Economic Push off Seems to Hold the Line for now ! Home Builders, A.I. , Crypto, Oil, Auto, Need Easy Monies There Still Hanging in There with A.I. Being the New Generator of Economies in a Big way !.
It’s amazing the clout a person is given by being lucky in stocks.
Lol have you read ANY of his books? He is the master of modern day economics, he aint “lucky”
@@manuellopez5080 Yeah, he’s lucky. He keeps calling for an economic disaster but doesn’t invest that way. That means lucky
Interest only economy.
Don't worry, they can always just print more money - lol.
We passed "debt crisis" 20 years ago. Idiots (in both parties) who think we can print money and spend our way out of problems are responsible. Government is the problem EVERYTIME, doesn't matter the issue ...
Grandpa Ray has wright ❤
borrowing money aka printing money to pay interest. at 6:35 Just let this sign for a minute or 2.
Just amazing that this man was able to convince so many people to invest in his fund
You saying he's not intelligent?
He's an old broker ... hence he knew how to BS and get ppl to part with their money. He is also a consummate narcissist so he sort of believes his own BS. Unfortunately he has no clue what he's actually talking about, but by the time the clients realise its nonsense the guy has sailed into the sunset with his fortune.
@@scooter3739He's a faux intellectual BS artist. A salesman by trade and nature. So intelligence being multifaceted, he is intelligent in creating a story, using imagination, and communicating it. In actually understanding macro ... no. Its a joke, a microcosm of a lot of the financial services business.
Can the broad base of the American middle class buy up all the bonds the government needs to work down the debt? That would be an argument for increasing American middle class's wages through benefits and via issuing people bonds they cannot cash out until a certain point of maturity. The government could negotiate this with companies that can stand to afford it or else the dreaded t-word.
@@zatarawood3588 You have no idea what you are talking about. Ray Dalio is to be respected. The way you speak of people you do not know shows a lot about yourself. You should probably do some inner reflection.
The government has to stop spending but won't. America plays the short game and China the long game.
The one issue I have with his analysis is his assumption that the house sector saved the money we all received.. just tells me how clueless he is with the avg family income struggles. That Covid money was spent long ago..
It seems the debt structure could affect how Americans view the economy especially as it may worsen inflation. Maybe it's time we start rethinking how we save our money and not allow the economy eat into it. Maybe buy bonds or stocks? I don't even know. Everything is just overwhelming.
Saving is already outdated, and investing is literally the way to go. But be careful. If you're not one who understands strategies to invest in the market, why not seek a financial advisor to help you grow your portfolio? You could make a lot from the market if you have good guidance.
I agree and I love the insight. Professionals could make a really big difference in investing, and I think everyone should have one. There are aspects of market trend that is difficult for the untrained eyes to see.
One of my goals is to employ the service of one next year. I've seen some off LinkedIn but wasn't able to get a response. Could you recommend who it is you work with?
I'm hesitant to make recommendations like this online so I can't drop her contact here, but you could look her up yourself and contact her if you wish. Her name is *Sharon Louise Count.*
Thank you. My problem also is that I'm nearing retirement and need to factor that in mind. I'll try to reach her and I hope she gets back to me soon.
I really like ray I think he's amazing You know people Say negative things about jewish people this man is brilliant he's been giving Warnings People have to prepare I think ray can save the world his legacy I enjoy his knowledge and videos I think he's truly a Gift
We are entering incredibly uncomfortable times. High sovereign debt everywhere, fiat currency being printed, high inflation, generative AI about to put downward pressure on wages, increased geopolitical competition, climate uncertainty and on and on. I just don’t see how all this ends well.
ahhh the old interest paradox....we tend to ignore it 4 sum strange reason....wonder y?
Ray Dalio understands all of this far better than the hosts of this show and he knows that when it all boils down, the basics is what matters the most. These hosts are literally drowning in their own little world discussing minutia that mean nothing to their audience.
If the government was overspending during the financial & Covid crises, it should now increase taxes at least on financials & luxury acquisitions and cut expenses to compensate for debt plus stimulate private sector solutions for public domain problems.
The 10-year yield at 4.4% is a total money loser. Real inflation right now is more like 6-7% and GDP came in a 4.9% last quarter. This is before you add in the premium for the US war time levels of debt and war time levels of deficit spend. Good luck raises taxes. This is not post WW2 where the sentiment was overwhelmingly in favor of owning the debt and paying it down responsibly. No one in the US wants to pay even a single penny or make any sort of sacrifice to deal with this national debt.
Maybe
With people "in general " we select to represent us I'd say we're screwed.
Transfer of wealth from government to businesses is a damn joke
She said yield changed dramatically is broad statement and untrue statement.
Yes sir please understand that women's never lies too us men
America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. this year will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation.. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned 180k savings to turn to dust
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Lol we always have a debt problem. Doesn’t matter which party is in office.
Shutup CNBC, let Ray talk! Those Guys are so....
Ray says that you need 1.5 - 2% above inflation for the bond yield. Why? Berkshire Hathaway has something like $157 billion in cash right now. Where are they, the insurance companies, the pension funds going to put their money if they can only get .5 - 1% above inflation or even just the inflation rate for a return? Does the money go to Germany, Canada, Japan, where you have currency conversion risk? The US is by far the largest bond market in the wold by the factor of many (which is a lot). What else can they do with their cash? Risk it someplace else? Its cash, it need to be safe, it needs to be accessible. Warren Buffet says that its just a matter of BH buying 3 months or 6 months out, thats pretty much all he looks at. He really has no where else to go.
....$34 Trillion in debt and lots more to come....We are done
Takes him so long to make a point...and recall his 'cash is trash' ... He was so wrong.
So he is saying the US Government will have so much debts , that they cant stop selling bonds and nobody is going to buy all those bonds?
Sort of, I think the government needs to sell bonds to raise revenue for roads, bridges, house etc, that creates jobs, wealth /private industry to earn that then goes back into the economy to be taxed by the government... Causing reasonable inflation again and therefore interest rates increase potentially (but hopefully below the bond rate over time) or no point buying bonds if not a good /better return)
The government just prints itself out of debt. Currently the interest rate is smaller than the inflation. So the effective interest rate is negative, the more debt you have, the better off you are.
Gov cant print money. They can just issue bonds that they sell to central bank who is printing money. And if inflation is high they can just sell more and more bonds to central bank because the rate they have to pay doesnt matter because they make enough on GDP. Which is the case atm. But that cant continue forever because if economy collapses the GDP collapses and the gov cant pay the bank anymore. So unless bank has sold all bonds to other market participants the bank is fkd and bank will never be the one who is fkd. So they either stop buying bonds earlier or they will print print print and buy buy buy so the gov can spend money like crazy to push GDP again. But that would cause hyperinflation.@@csuporj
Did he say squeeze?
Yikes!☠️
Dalio is the Suze Orman of Hedge Funds )...
IMO:
If debt become a greater problem for the US economy and we anticipate more bonds hitting a low demand market, I reckon the FED would bring rates down (slowly) to ease the debt burden and induce demand (as lower rates are anticipated on a go forward basis).
Is my thesis sound?
As far as every market in the world is in recession, FED can make the interest rate low. So you know what will happen. Currently the problem for FED is the liquidity in Chinese hand. If China's economy recovers, US Treasury will be in deep trouble.
I didn't hear Ray mention the debt the prior administration added, a whopping 25% of all debt since 1776. What coved money spent amounts to pittins compared.
Trump's admin added 7.8T to the deficit, but Biden's has already added 5.95T before he's even hit 3 years with his administration. Trump's rate of spend prior to the pandemic was roughly 1.08T per year compared to Biden's 2.08T per year thus far. Based on math, if this trend continues, Biden will surpass Trump's spending by the end of his term. Biden loves to blame Trump for how much money he spent in 4 years, but much of that was to prevent a total economic collapse and downstream effects of the pandemic / shutdowns. Biden has been operating during relatively stable times, and still spends at a faster rate than any president in history. This is all derived from government "debt to the penny" data btw.
If us bond is in troubles, it will be another global financial crisis like 2008. Debt problems were never addressed.
We are at that inflection point. Political division while handling a debt crisis
Politicians seem unified to me. Everybody gets all the Government they want and nobody's gotta pay for it.
With all due respect Mr. Dalio... we've been "at that inflection point" for nearly 20 years now! There's no end in sight and the American ponzi... i mean, financial system is here to stay for our lifetimes at the very least!👍
No the Fed kept rates near zero to hide the debt problem. That didn't mean it became less of a problem.
The only chance is to a "japanification" of us debt. 0,1% 10 year yields and perpetual qe
This problem hardly existed 20 years ago. The Fed is the great enabler that has created the problem, debt to GDP ratio has skyrocketed during the past 20 years
yeah. people are scared of the debt for decades. However, the politicians are experiment on it thinking they can cheat out of it somehow. The gambling habit is just too dangerous.
I don't think you understand the meaning of an inflection point.
Calls or puts on Ray ?