So-$20-25 per person. Sounds about right. $15 meal, $5 drink, and maybe another $5-$10 for an appetizer. Restaurants raised their prices. Period. McDonalds isn't any cheaper either. So... Stop going to these places. The food's corporate and is in no way better than local businesses (support local, small businesses). Or just cook at home (inflation didn't affect all prices equally)
I work at Amazon in Midwest region snd prime day was busy for us but not as busy everyone was thinking it was going to be. My facility is at a 92% with inventory and we got an email stating we are shifting the buildings focus on adding more inventory
I interact with individuals who are in the economic media ecosystem. They’ve become extremely isolated from the situation of normal Americans after only a year and a half in that environment. Making 90k and living in a house bought by their parents, they actually believe the economy is doing great.
@@censoredeveryday3320 I'm a dot gov worker, it's obvious if you pay attention to your clients and their patterns. Cheaper cars, no fast food bags in their hands, arguing about an extra five or ten dollar charge, etc. Lots of little clues.
@@censoredeveryday3320as a government worker I know. Food prices are way higher. I may have job stability, but the economy effects us as well. The sad part is that for those in DC it doesn't, as the entire city is funded by America as a whole and is insulated from economic downturn by having so many govt workers. Just look at housing prices, they basically have not fallen in Northern Virginia at all.
@@nehrigen I was laid off a yar ago from my IT job and have had to retrain in a temporary field and make a pittance of what I used to make. Believe me, you government people have no idea how bad the private economy is. It is really bad. I'm barely scraping by right now.
The crazy thing is the economy is doing great just that the money isn’t being distributed properly. The rich have been getting richer and the poor have been getting poorer. If know anything about the WEF and agenda 2030, everything is going exactly to plan. People need to wake up, that’s the reality
Same here. Trips have dropped by probably 60% in my area. I've had to multi app with Instacart to make the same amount daily as just a year ago, and I usually work more hours.
Once you have to start spending your own money again, having someone bring food to your door so that ypur lazy butt can stay on the couch becomes quite luxurious.
I have never seen my Home Depot so empty in the recent months. I asked the cashier said, "everyone is probably barbequing" I doubt it. San Diego always has nice weather. Everyone is broke or cutting back.
It is no longer economically practical to renovate existing housing supply. It doesn't bring up the property value renters don't pay very much extra. So housing is being run into the ground. When the house is frigged you sell it for the same price as a renovated house to an investment corporation that makes offers based on what the software says the house it worth, without ever looking at the house.
For real. I also know this from recent experience. I applied to multiple jobs, had internal referrals to all. Did not even receive an initial interview. That has never happened to me before.
@@biometal770 It took 6 months from the time I applied to my first day on the job, And that was 7 years ago. I was literally on my last week of unemployment too. And that's basically the same case for anyone above entry level at my work.
I’m a student and haven’t landed a job in months, a simple job I’ve applied fast food and retail. With retail experience I’ve only had like 3 interviews that went nowhere
If you want to know the true unemployment numbers look at the labor participation rate, not unemployment. Most people don't understand that unemployment numbers are only for people who are currently getting unemployment benefits from the government.
But the economy IS doing great. Just not for everyone. Billionaire-owned companies are having ever greater record profits, the economy is going well for them. It only sucks for the remaining rest of humanity.
The currency has been inflating at a rate of 5-10% ever since covid. Unless a corporation has been growing profits by 5-10% every year, then they aren't even breaking even with inflation.
"This has left economists trying to figure out why Americans' perceptions are so much more negative than the data analysts use to measure how things are going." When you have yesmen, you find it hard to believe a no.
It's also the fact that if they begin to show any doubt in economy being strong, that doubt can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. So public reports can not be pessimistic. We don't know what happens internally, and I heard that there are inconsistencies within data as not all datapoints reflect strong economy, only the most common ones.
@wumi2419 There is a saying from France, "this country is so incredible, you can just say 'gas shortage' and the public will make one." But, nonetheless, I think our lack of awareness is also a threat. The more we lie to ourselves, the more drastic these things appear, and the people that could have prepared for it now haven't.
@@MaddesG1 no one wants to do anything about the disconnect, as messenger will be shot, so no one wants to take the fall. They also don't have a solution. It's either a horrible end or horror without end. And ruling class seems to prefer horror without end, so there would be multiple years of slow decline. Which can be masked in public stats by fiddling with data and then retroactively re-evaluating results so year over year stays good because previous year was brought down. It was already done for iirc inflation in US, but it might have been another metric.
5 local Mom and Pops , a KFC and DQ, that were here for the 37 years I’ve lived here, are now closed for good.. empty stores everywhere..never in my 5 adult decades have I seen it this bad. 😧
Old games don't need constant updates that use up my fone hotspot bc I don't have internet. God knows the books aren't better. The movies these days are generally garbage we get 1-2 good ones a year, and they're easier to watch in 4K at tour friends house than have someone fart on you at the theater
Old media, or new media that constantly goes on sale if you just wait. Thrift stores have amazing items for cheap. Marketplace has great deals as well. I NEVER buy things at the store brand new. It's a waste.
Yeah. corporations are having a hissy fit because they're afraid Trump will win. Or they're about to be sued for doing some illegal shit du to ripping us off. Stay strong. Better days are coming. Especially if all Republicans are fired in the coming election.
I went to Walgreens last night , bought tums , candies ,hot Cheetos , bag of cookies , and ice cream ! It was $50.00 😮 I was shock ⚡️ so much money ! Everything is so expensive now , you can’t even have a movie night with your kids at home anymore .
I don't buy much stuff. So I don't go to the store very often. Today I darkened the door of Walmart for the first time in a year or more to buy soap, shampoo etc.. IT WAS A GHOST TOWN! Never seen it that empty before. Its a comin'....
Funny I live the same way and have ever since the Dems took office knowing what would happen to prices .....haven't been inside of Walmart in 4-5 yrs now but was thinking I may go buy some undies there instead of paying more at kohls like I usually do.
In Michigan things are going to go from bad to worse. All the automotive companies are doing mass layoffs. Jobs are going overseas and yet they keep inflating prices.
Unemployment is an odd concept in an economy where for so many folks it’s necessary to work multiple jobs just to get by. Loose one and you’re counted as employed but suddenly don’t have enough money to live.
The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I sell PC parts, gaming accessories etc online. I haven't had a single sale in 90 days. I have items with 60+ likes but no one will buy. If people send me offers it's $50 to $100 lower than my asking price and they still want free shipping. People are tapped.
I’m so sorry to hear this. I will pray for you and your business to succeed. I know what it’s like in a small business and to struggle look at govt. contracts that at got me out of the hole
They’re full of shit. We can all clearly see the mass layoffs in favour of shareholder dividends and share buybacks. Who’s gonna go out and burn cash when there’s no job security?
The worst part is talking to the copers telling everyone to just stay home and cook. All those people working in fast food are going to be out of jobs in an already difficult job market. This is a chain reaction and pretty soon you'll be unable to afford food to cook in the first place. Dollar is dead, we're all just pretending it isn't. I hope the pitchforks come out for once for all the politicians and CEOs who greedily hoarded wealth only to have it disappear on some datasheet because the people who actually do the work and make up the country have been robbed of everything.
Potential reality, the economy begins to look more like the early 1900s, driven more by the upper classes more concentrated economic power. Would lead to a situation where loads of people feel things are bad but the economy chugs along without them. We are basing the assumption of consumer impact on the economy on a period of lower wealth disparity across the US population (1950-2010)
I am doubtful things will remain stable for much longer before it results in some heated moments between the working classes vs the few hoarders at the top.
The thought of those exclusive neighborhoods getting swarmed by looters comes to mind lol never mind those million/billion dollar loot caches in places like New Zealand.
I've been laid off 14 months with no end in sight despite having a PhD in biochemistry and 22 years experience. In last 17 years I've had to find a new job three other times (2007, 2015, 2022). Each of those times it took less than four months. The system is broken.
Yah, we talk about the problems with low skill 'illegal' migration but act like there could never be problems with high skill 'legal' migration. Either way it's competition for jobs with the Native pop.
@@MisterTutor2010 you’ll get another job, you have a phd. I’ve seen some phds go into field service work because it’s that bad. You can deign to do that type of work
They could fix this by saying new hires must be currently unemployed or have filed their taxes with under $12k in revenue the previous year. Like a national mandate. Instead of "oh we hired someone who was already employed". I hate that. Plenty of people need jobs who have none.
"On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit. "
Canada fudged data too. Our last jobs report was 12,000 jobs lost, while 50,000 new immigrants arrived in the same month, with housing supply being lower then ever. The housing market is starting to buzz because people know in their gut interest rates need to be cut back to 0%.
You should apply right away! They will ask if you received a severance pay for the week, so you won’t get a check that week, but your unemployment balance will the stay the same and you’ll be eligible for unemployment again faster.
Don't hesitate to get the ball rolling for unemployment....it takes them a long time to process stuff so by the time your severance runs out you won't be missing a bunch of money.
I have been working in tech for 30 fucking years. I have a reputation. I have at least 10 people, CEO's, CTO's, other coworkers, and many people throughout the industry who would back up my technical skill and I was downsized nearly a year ago and have been chronically underemployed since then. I went from making 165 a year to 35 a year... The last six months I have been making zero because the contracts all dried up. I'm not even sure how to make it work because I've been putting out resumes like wild thousand plus resumes and all I get are rejections and not even an interview not a fucking interview with 30 years of experience. I've already lost my house. Everything I own is in storage. I bought a container and stuff that onto family property. I don't even know how to get back on my feet from this. I even went down to like fucking Waffle House and Taco Bell to try to get a job and they told me they weren't hiring managers and the owner of the Waffle House that he wasn't sure if he wanted to hire me specifically because he knows I'm gonna leave the minute I can... Yeah, it's about to get really fucking bad. Nothing seems to be working the way I'm told that it must be working. It's like they keep screaming at you, don't believe your lying eyes. Well, I'm believing my fucking hungry-ass stomach. Oh, by the way, I went to the Catholic outreach around the corner to see if they might have some canned goods or something I can get to offset some of my food. And they told me they were out and I need to sign up and I'm probably about three months from getting anything from them because they're completely tapped. Everyone's using them right now. Remember, the day before Black Tuesday, the newspaper said everything was fine, the economy was wonderful. They will absolutely lie to you in order to make sure that you keep feeding the system because the minute you lose faith in it, they lose their money. The reality is everything is at its stressed, maximum peak, there is no more room to wiggle. All it will take is one minor obstacle and it's over. It will happen.
Hate to break it to you but during that time you really should saved because even when your unemployed at least you have a backup plan. What’s going on isn’t right but you ain’t doing any favors either.
@@swordmaster305 I did, but my parents were elderly and fell sick in 2018, and dealing with them, then covid tapped me for resources. They then passed in 2022 - Lives are far far more complicated than a paragraph or two of a comment can ever let be visible. No hate here from me btw, you didnt know and it's just is what it is My comment stands though, I depend on employment and was hoping to fight for some stability after they both passed, and just getting hit with this has made it all but impossible. I think the take away I was suggesting was "I've been in the top 15% or so of my local area for a long time, and was able to always get interviews, and now after nearly ~1000 submissions I get fuck all" anything else about preperattion is an involved back story, the immediate needs are impossible to fulful because of overall economic struggles.
@@biometal770 im not outright opposed, ive applied to places far and wide, but ive yet to get interviewed. I think that was the crux of my rant. The truth is, I just haven't been able to get an interview after all sorts of resumes being dropped off. I'm in the greater St. Louis metro area. I've applied to many places in Texas, Florida. I've applied to some places in Colorado. I've applied to some places in Iowa and Nebraska. No interviews.
I run a service-based entertainment business. This is my slowest year since 2016 (excluding 2020…but only SLIGHTLY better than during the pandemic year). Business dropped off significantly earlier this year.
@fernmoss-456 facts 🔥 🔥 🔥 everyone keeps saying bidenomics I go crazy. The indoctrination is real especially with those on the right. Raganomics and Nixon is totally responsible for the wage stagnation of the last 40 years and taking us off the gold standard. Bush Jr and Trump ran the economy into the ground crashing both stock markets and job markets. Trump then let covid run rampant then gave the stimulus that led to this. You're spot on about Nixon I keep reminding republicans of this who blame everything on bidenomics. Thanks for living reality it's not many of us left.
Bingo. EVERYONE, from this frigging guy (who, at this point, I think is a Wall Streeter or a Mockingbird) all the way to the Swiss National Bank, were saying Cuts, and then Japan does the slightest thing to correct their recession (while we were making it worse by pushing failing CRE on them) and now ALL the data changes to suddenly mean we need raises, instead. Completely embarrassing.
My car is from 2004 my laptop from 2016 my phone from 2020. Clothes from the thrift store and I fix all my stuff myself. Tv broken, I fixed the backlight. Clutch in my car was worn, tore the gearbox out off the car and replaced it etc. saves me bigtime. No debt, no credit card. Oh, and I cook my own meals. Income is way more then I need and I save everything that's left on my bank account the end of the month to my savings account. It's not fancy or something but it gives me peace of mind.
I don't understand why some people are so against being frugal. Only buy the things you need, screw brand loyalty. Save money for big purchases and vacations. Don't use a credit card. Don't accumulate debt. We live in such a disposable society, nothing is made with quality or to last anymore. Everything is made to throw away and buy again.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Thanks, I looked her up on Google and was very impressed by her credentials. I reached out because I need all the help I can get. I've scheduled a phone call with her.
I eat eggs everyday basically and i have for years and years. I went to buy 5 dozen at fred meyers yesterday and it was 19$! In 2019 is was between 6 and 8$. Its insane. It doesnt matter how few groceries i buy i barely leave without spending 50$
GDP up 2.8%. Granted we could be like Canada; where GDP is up, but GDP per capita is down. We just don't talk about GDP on a per person basis, while sentiment is.
I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?
In my opinion, now is not the moment to rely on hearsay. Every individual, regardless of their level of experience as an investor OR in a financial market, requires guidance at some stage.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Jessica Lee Horst” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I’ve been trying to escape my job for months now, and everything I’ve applied too has not gotten back to me, not one. I’m also now in a deadline to find a new place to live, and with my current income I’d barely be able to afford to rent a room, let alone a 1 bedroom apartment. Feeling stuck and stressed, and these videos are not helping my existential dread 🙃
Your dread is felt, trust me. I have been unable to leave my parent’s house because rent around me is setting at about $1,000 for a one bed, one bath. I live in a semi-rural town, rent should not be $1,000 for a 1b/1b. And a big fuuuck you to all the “we are hiring” signs, I have sent out over 12 resumes to entry level jobs and no one has even given me an opportunity for an interview. My resume is not the problem either, I have great references with good experience. I should not be feeling this way as a young adult, no one should.
Who knows about the timing.. I took a stable maintenance job 1 1/2 years ago because of the interest rate inversion. Construction industry is at the mercy of bank lending and the fed got rid of the reserve requirements- there has to be banks in trouble. I’m sticking with my job.
I work at the GM plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee and no one owns Cadillac: XT5, XT6, and the all-electric LYRIQ. Great vehicles and you will notice a lot of old cars in parking lot. We work there but we cannot afford our own cars.
The problem with economists versus the average American is that they live in two different economies. Wall Street is not reflective of General economic prosperity, the economic prosperity of the investing/owning classes. If you wanna see how the the average American is doing, you need to compare median wages to the price of housing and food and healthcare... And it's not looking good. While the stock market line is going up and up and up, So two are the prices of commodities and necessities... But wage isn't. The average American house costs $400,000, while the medium wage sits somewhere around $65,000. You need roughly double that in order to be approved for a home loan. Rent typically sits between $2000-$2500 a month, so you can't even build savings by renting. But this is all fantastic if you're a landlord who owns entire rental neighborhoods, or a shareholder In the various businesses that are constantly raising their prices well beyond the rate of inflation in order to create record profits year on year.
You work for 40vrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life.
I have been in the market since 2022, I have a total profit of $795 thousand realized with my $65 thousand invested in Bitcoin, ETFs and other dividend income, I am very grateful for all the knowledge and information you have given me.
The economists in the usa, remind me of the british economists in the uk (think tanks and the British ONS economists) and their disconnect with people who are feeling things change in the wrong direction economically (on the ground).
I'm wondering if it's so much a disconnect and not just a denial to slow the crash while they get out of positions safely. If they tell people the truth, sentiment crashes faster.
do you really think this is a coordinated effort across all sectors and all industries to price gouge? or do you think it’s more likely that terrible leadership and terrible policy has absolutely tanked our economy?
@@bdek68 try to short just before Sept 6 job report, like 2-3 days before. I love the firework if unemployment continue to inch up, and even if its doesnt and dip 0.1% to 4.2, sahm rule is still going higher lol. They can only kick the can so far down. once it hit the wall, the house of card will come down very fast
@@Gattberserk Sahm Rule doesn't mean s---, just like the inverted yield curve doesn't really mean anything. There are trillions of positive drivers in the economy now, so when people like Jeff only focus on the negative you're not getting an accurate picture of what's really going on.
I buy food and shelter Haven’t purchased a wardrobe since I separated from military retirement… don’t need clothes or ppl in my life who judge me based on what I wear.
@@cgorman31 same. Too many people are so under educated on what would happen with that pandemic response and went out and completely boxed themselves in with yolo spending and debt. I did the opposite for the past 3 yrs and survived it all so far. When I saw Taylor swifts crowds in the media, I thought to myself ....."so many of those kids will regret that $500 for 3-4 hrs of entertainment in the end
@@jonEmontanaI always wonder who spends that kind of money on a ticket. I make 6 digits income and wouldn’t blow my money on that. I buy flowers and plants for my garden, and plant veggies
I am also a retired vet... I have read over 100 books on all this stuff, and trade daily. I will warn you like I have my other Vet friends, and that is I would not fully count on that retirment to always exist. If things go very wrong VET's pensions and benifits will be at risk. I suggest you find at least one more income stream. It doesn't matter what .. except that hopefully you like it. If the US Govt keeps going down the path they are ...the dollar goes to zero, we default, or both. No one will be safe, not the elderly dependent on Social Security, and not Vets. It is sad to say but the math is starting to look pretty ugly. And every country in the world that has the interest payment on the debt exceed the cost of defense has fallen from the "king of the hill" status. We are already past that.
Excellent way to think. People with simple tastes will survive the future. We live in a time in which most people do not understand the difference between a necessity and a luxury.
Corporations increased prices too much but kept the salaries the same. When people stopped buying, they started to lay off people, and when AI started to be functional, they lay off even more people. When people start to see lay off everywhere, they consume even less. Corporations: shocked Pikachu face
Turns out printing trillions of dollars has an adverse affect on wages, and the profit margins of consumer goods. Government stops printing money, the economy will sort itself out in less than a decade.
Is it possible that the consumer confidence is not an only predictor of unemployment but rather a driver of it? For example - Low consumer confidence indicates how consumers will behave. They will consume less because of their low confidence. Less consumption leads to less revenue. Less revenue leads to layoffs.
I know my workplace just posted a job listing for transparency reasons but the job is actually going to be taken by an internal employee because they're combining what used to be two positions into one after another employee had to resign. They're using the opportunity to cut labor costs.
From the perspective of Austrian economics, there are several fundamental reasons why Keynesian economics is considered flawed or "wrong." Austrian economists, following the tradition of Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and others, emphasize a different approach to understanding economic processes, particularly focusing on the importance of individual actions, market signals, and the dangers of government intervention. Here are the key criticisms from an Austrian perspective: 1. **Rejection of Aggregate Concepts**: Austrian economists reject Keynes' use of aggregate concepts like "aggregate demand" and "aggregate supply." They argue that these aggregates obscure the complexity of individual decision-making and the heterogeneity of goods and services in the economy. According to the Austrian view, focusing on aggregates leads to misunderstandings about how markets work because it ignores the importance of individual prices and their role in coordinating economic activity. 2. **Business Cycle Theory**: Austrian economics offers a different explanation for business cycles than Keynesian economics. Keynesians believe that economic downturns are primarily caused by insufficient demand and advocate for government intervention to boost spending. In contrast, Austrian economists argue that business cycles are caused by distortions in the economy due to artificial credit expansion and low interest rates, often influenced by central bank policies. These distortions lead to malinvestments-investments in projects that are not sustainable in the long term because they are based on misleading price signals. When the inevitable correction occurs, it results in a recession. 3. **Critique of Government Intervention**: Keynes advocated for active government intervention to manage economic cycles, particularly through fiscal and monetary policies. Austrian economists, however, argue that such interventions only exacerbate economic problems. They believe that markets are best left to adjust on their own and that government intervention distorts the natural process of economic correction, leading to longer and more severe downturns. For example, artificially lowering interest rates (a common Keynesian prescription) is seen as distorting savings and investment decisions, leading to unsustainable booms followed by busts. 4. **The Knowledge Problem**: Friedrich Hayek, one of the leading figures of the Austrian School, argued that central planners, including those implementing Keynesian policies, suffer from a "knowledge problem." According to Hayek, no central authority can have all the information necessary to make decisions that are better than those made by individuals in the market. Markets, through the price mechanism, efficiently coordinate the actions of individuals by reflecting dispersed knowledge. Keynesian policies, by interfering with market signals (like prices and interest rates), disrupt this process, leading to inefficiencies and misallocations of resources. 5. **Long-Term Consequences Ignored**: Austrians criticize Keynes for his focus on short-term economic stabilization, often encapsulated in his famous remark, "In the long run, we are all dead." Austrians argue that this focus on the short term leads to policies that have detrimental long-term consequences, such as inflation, increased debt, and the erosion of savings. They believe that sound economic policy should consider the long-term health of the economy, emphasizing savings, capital accumulation, and sustainable growth. 6. **Moral Hazard and Dependency**: Austrian economists also argue that Keynesian policies create moral hazard and dependency on government support. When governments intervene to "save" failing businesses or to stimulate the economy, it can lead to a culture of dependency, where businesses and individuals expect bailouts or subsidies instead of making prudent decisions. This, in turn, can reduce the incentive for innovation, hard work, and responsible financial behavior. 7. **Subjective Value and Human Action**: At the core of Austrian economics is the principle of subjective value-that value is determined by individual preferences and cannot be objectively measured by aggregate metrics. Austrians argue that Keynesian economics, with its reliance on aggregates and models, overlooks the importance of subjective value and individual choices. This leads to policies that are out of touch with the real needs and wants of individuals in the economy. In summary, from an Austrian economics perspective, Keynes was wrong because his theories are based on flawed aggregates, ignore the causes of business cycles, advocate harmful government intervention, and neglect the importance of individual decision-making and long-term economic health. Austrians believe that a free market, left to adjust naturally, is the best way to achieve sustainable economic prosperity.
Wow. Austrians were not very smart. How do you criticize aggrgate stats? "You can't see clouds you have to look at the individual droplets of water". With this thinking you could never have any policy prescriptions. Want to make housing more affordable? But it is affordable look at the people who are buying (even if the sample size is one person).
The continuously changing economic conditions in our society have made it necessary for thousands of peopleto find additional sources of income. Personally, I am looking at the stock market to fuel my retirement goal of $2m, my concern is the recent market crash.
buying the dip has proven to be profitable although for majority, the solution to their problem can be found only in specialized knowledge hence they seek guidance from well experienced advisors
Agreed, despite my rookie knowledge of investing, I have a financial advisor who did the trick in a bit more than 6 months after a lump sum capital of $500k, and I've so far made a fortune. I'm now buying real estates, gold and silver as advised by my FA.
truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Vivian Jean Wilhelm a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Have tons of respect for you Mate, but I think the thesis on "the market has chosen elastic money.." is flawed. Global governments - have literally mandated - use of their centrally controlled fiat; how is that a "market"? Global governments - have literally mandated through law - that fiat money be de-coupled from gold; how is that a "market"? The US Government - had literally outlawed - gold ownership for decades! How is that a "market"? What many isn't taking into account is that bitcoin is the FIRST TIME EVER, that humanity has had a an actually decentralized money, with a fixed supply. The option of actually choosing a non-elastic money, that has no counterparty risk, has never existed until now, ......currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 4.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Milton Harper, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful. That's the whole point of investing.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
1. We bought 50 years of linear growth with exponential credit (debt expansion). 2. This has forced us into a distorted version of market economics that requires (for credit market purposes) an infinite growth model (even if only on paper). 3. This has created a “narrowing path” effect where both deflation and inflation become two cliffs on either side of the path, both with equally terrible economic consequences because the state of both the monetary base and credit markets are disastrously distended. 4. Incompetent energy policy has led to rampant inflationary pressure and created a fundamental drag on the most basic input factor for economic activity. 5. Item 4 is further exacerbated by grossly incompetent US and EU foreign policy, creating further energy markets instability. 6. China’s economy is effectively in a 30’s style depression as their real estate bubble is in full collapse, which is slamming a lid on Chinese internal consumption, while leaving regional and municipal governments effectively bankrupt. 7. Simultaneous to 7, the CCP has seen fit to make their industrial and investment policies increasingly hostile to foreign ownership and investment, which has resulted in a movement of manufacturing out of China to more hospitable locales. 8. Meanwhile, in the US, you have a multi-trillion dollar commercial real estate disaster spread across nearly every urban center and state, with gigantic exposure for the regional and super-regional banks (which is far more serious than the mega-bank residential real estate exposure in 2007-2008, because its systemically far more difficult to contain failures when the dominos start falling - which they will). 9. On top of all this, we have a demographic disaster just over the horizon that spells doom for the credit driven infinite expansion model. Some are banking on massive amounts of automation to help stave off the failure of this model, but that only addresses the production side (while also introducing huge disruptive variables), it doesn’t address future consumption collapse as we head into population decline throughout most of the developed and leading developing nations in the second half of the century. That may seem like a future problem, but not when it comes to long term debt instruments. What we have here is a very ugly “perfect storm” brewing, and there are no easy fixes. First, anyone who thinks commodities (gold, etc.) is a solution needs to understand that in any situation involving a further escalation of inflationary pressure, gold is far far too illiquid for any government to not immediately clamp down on its use (e.g. it could very quickly distort all other markets, relatively speaking, which is why it will never be “money” again - well not without shrinking the global economy, and population, back to early 20th century sizing). There will be a massive, long running economic mess, intensifying in the second half of the century, but with a particularly sharp shock in the next 2-3 years as certain realities come home to roost.
The economy is fake. All it is, is a series of numbers made to incentive productivity. Ever since the 70s the government has been coasting on fake productivity through printing of money, whilst disincentivizing domestic production. So the easiest way out I see, is a three pronged approach. 1. Place a cap on the printing if money. The stabilizing of our Fiat alone would do wonders to the economy over the next decade. 2. Bring foreign production back home to the US. On paper this would destroy the US economy, because of the increased costs associated with it. In practice its actually cheaper if you look at it from the perspective of resource expenditure. 3. Shrink the government to 20% of its current size. This would also involve the restriction of government bailouts, so as to allow inflated industries to crash on their own, removing their drain on the actual economy. It would also be necessary to axe hyperinflated liabilities such as social security, government pensions, and Healthcare. These systems were never sustainable.
Hi there. It is very good to see this data with the regression equation and the R-square, the determination coefficient. However, keep in mind that the R-square ALONE is not a good indication of correlation: instead, you have to look at the Confidence Level, CL, which is a function of R-square and the number of data points, N. In other words, depending on N, you still may have a high CL for a low R-square even if R-square is around 0.1. So, watch out for N as well!!!
This is my first time watching this channel. This dude is super smart and super legit - all data-based, coupled with sound reasoning. I'm an instant fan. I don't understand how he doesn't have 2M subscribers.
Is it normal for a Costco parking lot to be packed every day of the month…. Economic indicators are unusually weird and out of sync with historically reliable indicators. Looking forward to US Debt hitting Quadrillion and SP 500 on its way to 7,000.
Couldn't it be that low consumer confidence isn't so much predicting higher unemployment as it is causing it? When less is spent on goods and services it must follow that retail, then industry slows down therefore sheds jobs to compensate for reduced profits.
Union workers may have been demanding unrealistic wages? GM may have bought the woke nonsense and wasted too much money developing and selling EVs, they lose money on every EV sold
From £10,000 to £48,000 that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
The truth is many of us believe WE HAVE ENOUGH! WHY WE GOTTA WORK OUR ASSES OUR ENTIRE LIVES TO LIVE? I’m tired of seeing all the waste in this world and would much rather promote efficient productivity rather then doing as much as possible simply for profit.
Walmart: Going back to 11/23, Jeff's WMT "analysis" has included videos titled: "Walmart Just Came Out With a Major Warning", "It's Over, Consumer Confidence is Tanking", "Out Of Money, Walmart is Sending a Major Warning to the Economy", "It's Over..." Since 11/17/23 UMich Consumer Confidence is UP. WMT is +20/share or 40 percent, has paid 99 cents in dividends, blew out the earnings report, and is currently sitting at All Time Highs. Funny, he must of just simply forgotten to say "I was wrong".
Yeah, the accurate detective people are always early and he needs to be more clear. But here, and in those past videos, he's talking about economic trend, direction and consumer sentiment, not the price of some stock you buy. The big money with good analysts like Jeff are selling as you buy, in many cases, einstein. ... Funny, you forgot the stock mkt isn't the economy. Maybe, go back and re-watch all the videos?? Then report back when you've grokked all of it. (We won't wait.)
@@wagashiohagi My point was that I’m not familiar with any stock predictions he made while providing a macro economic analysis. WMT stock price has nothing to do with his analysis. In fact, it could be argued the two compliment each other. More sales at WMT (as if that has much to do with stock prices anymore) match his analysis that consumers are trying to save money.
@@cuchulainkailen While he didn't specifically talk about WMT stock price, he attempted to falsely use Walmart as some magic "It's Over, Out Of Money, Consumer Confidence is indicating doom" nonsense. Consumer Confidence is UP 10 percent since 11/23 and rose 29 percent just 2 short months later. I'm sorry that WMT isn't a core portfolio holding of yours. The "big money" would find Jeff's "analysis" laughable. That's why he makes silly-face UA-cam clickbait and isn't working for a reputable firm. The "big money" admits when they are wrong. Jeff, is the epitome of the "dumb money", and so are you. Jeff has been wrong for years. There is no debating that, it is an indisputable fact.
Local steel plant just laid off 136 people after working only three days for the last couple of months(they get shared work) they make trailer suspensions for semi's. no layoffs for years till now.
Your explanations are clear and straightforward. It's always an honour to have you here as a mentor, I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate and update us financially. Regardless of how bad it gets the economy, I still make over $28K every single week. I truly value Lia Lorenzo and her helpful guides.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional, but it's very advisable that you make use of professional
I know Lia Lorenzo, she has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in United State as she has been really helpful and have changed a lots of lives.
Honestly a big thing is that they need to rework how they calculate the unemployment rate. Usually it doesn't account for anyone who's been unemployed past a certain point, not claiming benefits, or not interested in returning to the workforce. Aka, stay at home parents are not accounted for... and I've seen SO many people actively deciding to drop out of the workforce because of the economic situation we're in where a lot of families are better off dropping that extra income because the cost of daycare alone makes their income insignificant. Cutting down an income stream also makes consumers more cautious about spending, and have less purchasing power overall, which in the long run can incentivise employers to lay off employees (who may also just decide to stay home for a while) because they're not seeing the demand and growth they want. That's just one of the many factors that the current metrics for unemployement overlooks.
I have also heard that a lot more people will count as a "business" (don't remember correct wording) than logically should. That is, selling something on eBay when you aren't employed means you don't count, as you have a source of income and it doesn't matter that it was a one time sale to get a little more savings.
Why are we still tying employment with prosperity?
We now have people with multiple jobs who can't afford to eat
Because it still a good measurement. People have multiple jobs now sure. But lose one or all and imagine the predicament then.
@@LavitosExodius "it could be worse" is a shitty answer
@@benno6981 Maybe you don't understand what happens when a large enough group of people miss three meals in a row.
But what about the 300 something Americans who are not only fine, but have extra to ~~help others with~~ hoard?
@@actually5004and what about the people who can’t even afford an apartment
i went with my kid to ihop yesterday. For 3 of us to have a basic breakfast it was 71 dollars before tip. The economy is completely fucked.
So how does that tell you that the economy is screwed?
What did you all order
So-$20-25 per person.
Sounds about right. $15 meal, $5 drink, and maybe another $5-$10 for an appetizer.
Restaurants raised their prices. Period.
McDonalds isn't any cheaper either.
So... Stop going to these places. The food's corporate and is in no way better than local businesses (support local, small businesses). Or just cook at home (inflation didn't affect all prices equally)
I do not believe breakfast at IHOP cost $24/person
@@supersleepygrumpybear That's not right, given even a couple years ago it would've been 5-7$/person at a low end, low cost chain.
i work at amazon. this year’s prime day was waay less hectic than last year or the year before. people aren’t buying, chaos is coming
I didn’t buy anything on prime day this year. Nothing I wanted to get off my money for.
I bought lots of trash on prime day tbh, but nothing since then, not even a pencil :D
I work at Amazon in Midwest region snd prime day was busy for us but not as busy everyone was thinking it was going to be. My facility is at a 92% with inventory and we got an email stating we are shifting the buildings focus on adding more inventory
they stopped having actual deals on Prime day so whatever who cares about that
@@thespacecowboy420 ngl i didnt buy anything on prime day either, so i didn’t even check to see if any deals were going on i just work here
I interact with individuals who are in the economic media ecosystem. They’ve become extremely isolated from the situation of normal Americans after only a year and a half in that environment. Making 90k and living in a house bought by their parents, they actually believe the economy is doing great.
Same with government workers. they have no idea how bad it is.
@@censoredeveryday3320 I'm a dot gov worker, it's obvious if you pay attention to your clients and their patterns. Cheaper cars, no fast food bags in their hands, arguing about an extra five or ten dollar charge, etc. Lots of little clues.
@@censoredeveryday3320as a government worker I know. Food prices are way higher. I may have job stability, but the economy effects us as well.
The sad part is that for those in DC it doesn't, as the entire city is funded by America as a whole and is insulated from economic downturn by having so many govt workers. Just look at housing prices, they basically have not fallen in Northern Virginia at all.
@@nehrigen I was laid off a yar ago from my IT job and have had to retrain in a temporary field and make a pittance of what I used to make. Believe me, you government people have no idea how bad the private economy is. It is really bad. I'm barely scraping by right now.
The crazy thing is the economy is doing great just that the money isn’t being distributed properly. The rich have been getting richer and the poor have been getting poorer. If know anything about the WEF and agenda 2030, everything is going exactly to plan. People need to wake up, that’s the reality
I do doordash and uber eats as a side job. They have slowed down dramatically. It's night and day compare to just a year ago.
demand for these things have been slowing down. I see less and less cars at the mall month after month.
Same here. Trips have dropped by probably 60% in my area. I've had to multi app with Instacart to make the same amount daily as just a year ago, and I usually work more hours.
Where are you located? Just curious
Actually i do doordash deliveries too and I’m noticing the same thing
Once you have to start spending your own money again, having someone bring food to your door so that ypur lazy butt can stay on the couch becomes quite luxurious.
Home Depot has been practically empty all day today.
GOOD. They had 5 years worth of business or more in 3 years. Things need to readjust.
I was just there and they would not honor a lower price tag on a hoover vacuum.
So i just left my cart up in there and walked out. :C
Packed in TX.
I have never seen my Home Depot so empty in the recent months. I asked the cashier said, "everyone is probably barbequing" I doubt it. San Diego always has nice weather. Everyone is broke or cutting back.
It is no longer economically practical to renovate existing housing supply. It doesn't bring up the property value renters don't pay very much extra. So housing is being run into the ground. When the house is frigged you sell it for the same price as a renovated house to an investment corporation that makes offers based on what the software says the house it worth, without ever looking at the house.
Those unemployment rate numbers are completely cooked, I have seen time and time again how long it now takes to only land an interview
For real. I also know this from recent experience. I applied to multiple jobs, had internal referrals to all. Did not even receive an initial interview. That has never happened to me before.
@@biometal770 It took 6 months from the time I applied to my first day on the job, And that was 7 years ago. I was literally on my last week of unemployment too. And that's basically the same case for anyone above entry level at my work.
I’m a student and haven’t landed a job in months, a simple job I’ve applied fast food and retail. With retail experience I’ve only had like 3 interviews that went nowhere
If you want to know the true unemployment numbers look at the labor participation rate, not unemployment. Most people don't understand that unemployment numbers are only for people who are currently getting unemployment benefits from the government.
@@scpagent086 the jobs really dried up overnight seemingly. IT, pharma, and biotech are all doing terribly right now.
But the economy IS doing great. Just not for everyone. Billionaire-owned companies are having ever greater record profits, the economy is going well for them. It only sucks for the remaining rest of humanity.
Yea so it really only sucks for 99.95% of people. Everyone else is doing great.
The economy isn't doing great. GDP is bloated with government spending.
The currency has been inflating at a rate of 5-10% ever since covid. Unless a corporation has been growing profits by 5-10% every year, then they aren't even breaking even with inflation.
@@Cakebatteredthey should view government spending as a negative in GDP, but it isn't seen that way.
and it doesn't have to be that way either... but they refuse to let go!!
We have no money. Raise people’s rents and mortgages up through manipulation of markets and no one is going to give a hot damn about renovations.
I work at a Meat Plant, we’re losing money fast. They’ve been finding excuses to let people go just to cut costs.
Then it ruff because those that are left are overworked.
The meat plant cutting people…yeah its over
Easy unemployment win for you.
Laying people off to cut costs doesn’t help the business out since their unemployment insurance premium will soar.
"This has left economists trying to figure out why Americans' perceptions are so much more negative than the data analysts use to measure how things are going."
When you have yesmen, you find it hard to believe a no.
It's also the fact that if they begin to show any doubt in economy being strong, that doubt can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. So public reports can not be pessimistic.
We don't know what happens internally, and I heard that there are inconsistencies within data as not all datapoints reflect strong economy, only the most common ones.
@wumi2419 There is a saying from France, "this country is so incredible, you can just say 'gas shortage' and the public will make one."
But, nonetheless, I think our lack of awareness is also a threat. The more we lie to ourselves, the more drastic these things appear, and the people that could have prepared for it now haven't.
@@MaddesG1 no one wants to do anything about the disconnect, as messenger will be shot, so no one wants to take the fall.
They also don't have a solution. It's either a horrible end or horror without end. And ruling class seems to prefer horror without end, so there would be multiple years of slow decline.
Which can be masked in public stats by fiddling with data and then retroactively re-evaluating results so year over year stays good because previous year was brought down. It was already done for iirc inflation in US, but it might have been another metric.
It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.
Yesmen for sure, but even bean counters are often paid better to report better than reality
5 local Mom and Pops ,
a KFC and DQ, that were here for the 37 years I’ve lived here, are now closed for good..
empty stores everywhere..never in my 5 adult decades have I seen it this bad. 😧
KFC and DQ sell diabetes. Good riddance
Where is this at ? In my town we had an Arby's, a couple beauty salons and two other private owned businesses.
Dairy queen closed.. ouch.
In our town they are the busiest fast food place by far.
Even more business than chick-fil-a.
2 minutes of a Trump Administration will take decades to undo
And the ones surviving are probably at 'zombie' levels of operation. It's similar across the pond. Not looking good in the real economy.
I’ve just stopped buying new stuff. Rather read old books I’ve read. Watch old movies. Play old games.
Old games don't need constant updates that use up my fone hotspot bc I don't have internet.
God knows the books aren't better.
The movies these days are generally garbage we get 1-2 good ones a year, and they're easier to watch in 4K at tour friends house than have someone fart on you at the theater
I’ve been emulating Super Nintendo and PS2
same
Yeah, my NAS has all my favorite shows on it, some of that content I'll probably die watching tbh
Old media, or new media that constantly goes on sale if you just wait. Thrift stores have amazing items for cheap. Marketplace has great deals as well. I NEVER buy things at the store brand new. It's a waste.
My two buddies were layed off 1 week apart.
😂
Yeah. corporations are having a hissy fit because they're afraid Trump will win. Or they're about to be sued for doing some illegal shit du to ripping us off. Stay strong. Better days are coming. Especially if all Republicans are fired in the coming election.
:/ that sucks
I'm so sorry to hear that. must have been scary and devastating. keep your head up kings
I went to Walgreens last night , bought tums , candies ,hot Cheetos , bag of cookies , and ice cream ! It was $50.00 😮 I was shock ⚡️ so much money ! Everything is so expensive now , you can’t even have a movie night with your kids at home anymore .
That’s just lazy shopping. You can find that at another store for half the price. Cvs and Walgreens are always overpriced
Yeah Walgreens tends to be expensive I go to aldis if it’s available 😭
The numbers are being redone now. Estimates are looking like unemployment figures were off by close to a million. What a shocker.
Yep the government is cooking the books!
I don't buy much stuff. So I don't go to the store very often. Today I darkened the door of Walmart for the first time in a year or more to buy soap, shampoo etc.. IT WAS A GHOST TOWN! Never seen it that empty before. Its a comin'....
And 5 years ago they had 12 more hours that they were open. So in half the time they have half the customers.
I read a story about young men called NEET; No Employment, Education or Training. Off the radar. And still we have immigrants coming to work here. smh
walmart is for upper middle class now. We're at the dollar store.
@@donotreportmebrodollar store cost more than walmart
Funny I live the same way and have ever since the Dems took office knowing what would happen to prices .....haven't been inside of Walmart in 4-5 yrs now but was thinking I may go buy some undies there instead of paying more at kohls like I usually do.
In Michigan things are going to go from bad to worse.
All the automotive companies are doing mass layoffs.
Jobs are going overseas and yet they keep inflating prices.
$4000 Chinese EVs are already conquering global markets. It was inevitable.
As a born and bred 'gander, this state has been a shithole for a fair bit of time now. The stink of Detroit is spreading to all borders of the state.
@@jmanakajosh9354 not quite.
Unemployment is an odd concept in an economy where for so many folks it’s necessary to work multiple jobs just to get by. Loose one and you’re counted as employed but suddenly don’t have enough money to live.
The economy is grappling with uncertainties, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
Things are strange right now. The US dollar is becoming less valuable because of inflation, but it's getting stronger compared to other currencies and things like gold and property. People are turning to the dollar because they think it's safer. I'm worried about my retirement savings of about $420,000 losing value because of high inflation. Where else can we keep our money?
Due to my demanding job, I lack the time to thoroughly assess my investments and analyze individual stocks. Consequently, for the past seven years, I have enlisted the services of a fiduciary who actively manages my portfolio to adapt to the current market conditions. This strategy has allowed me to navigate the financial landscape successfully, making informed decisions on when to buy and sell. Perhaps you should consider a similar approach.
I'm intrigued by this. I've searched for financial advisors online but it's kind of hard to get in touch with one. Okay if I ask you for a recommendation?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I don't need ECONOMIST to tell me of increasing unemployment. For example... You won't even get a job at SUBWAY if there's NO SUBWAY!
An economist is simply a bar tender who have no real world experience
I sell PC parts, gaming accessories etc online. I haven't had a single sale in 90 days. I have items with 60+ likes but no one will buy. If people send me offers it's $50 to $100 lower than my asking price and they still want free shipping. People are tapped.
I’m so sorry to hear this. I will pray for you and your business to succeed. I know what it’s like in a small business and to struggle look at govt. contracts that at got me out of the hole
Where can I shop though?
@@requiem5179 eBay? No wonder. Too many fakes to buy anything of substance from fleabay or Scamazon.
Yeah we need to know how we can make purchases at your shop.
Depends on your prices. Graphics card pricing has fallen drastically from the days of Covid.
They’re full of shit.
We can all clearly see the mass layoffs in favour of shareholder dividends and share buybacks.
Who’s gonna go out and burn cash when there’s no job security?
The worst part is talking to the copers telling everyone to just stay home and cook. All those people working in fast food are going to be out of jobs in an already difficult job market. This is a chain reaction and pretty soon you'll be unable to afford food to cook in the first place. Dollar is dead, we're all just pretending it isn't. I hope the pitchforks come out for once for all the politicians and CEOs who greedily hoarded wealth only to have it disappear on some datasheet because the people who actually do the work and make up the country have been robbed of everything.
The Democrat/Globalist/Communist plan is to do away with the middle class. Plan is in motion. Vote Trump and pray to God.
Its mad copers in deez comments
Occupy Wallstreet
“I hope the pitchforks come out” is an optimistic way to say “I wish somebody else would do my fighting for me”
Absolutely we have to freaking rise up. Not all of us agreed to just let others take.
Potential reality, the economy begins to look more like the early 1900s, driven more by the upper classes more concentrated economic power.
Would lead to a situation where loads of people feel things are bad but the economy chugs along without them. We are basing the assumption of consumer impact on the economy on a period of lower wealth disparity across the US population (1950-2010)
Record tax breaks for the 1℅ and voting for those responsible didn't help. HUYA
I am doubtful things will remain stable for much longer before it results in some heated moments between the working classes vs the few hoarders at the top.
“Vibecession” 😂😂😂
These rich elite Fs have lost it
I don’t think they have a CLUE about what is about to show up at their doorstep.
Honestly the problem is the people who goes along with it and defends it like my college peers. like do you guys enjoy living barely scraping by?
@felixfontaeus4518 A lot of people still don't know how much better things used to be.
The thought of those exclusive neighborhoods getting swarmed by looters comes to mind lol never mind those million/billion dollar loot caches in places like New Zealand.
I've been laid off 14 months with no end in sight despite having a PhD in biochemistry and 22 years experience.
In last 17 years I've had to find a new job three other times (2007, 2015, 2022). Each of those times it took less than four months.
The system is broken.
How old are you?
Yah, we talk about the problems with low skill 'illegal' migration but act like there could never be problems with high skill 'legal' migration. Either way it's competition for jobs with the Native pop.
@@MisterTutor2010 you’ll get another job, you have a phd. I’ve seen some phds go into field service work because it’s that bad. You can deign to do that type of work
They could fix this by saying new hires must be currently unemployed or have filed their taxes with under $12k in revenue the previous year. Like a national mandate. Instead of "oh we hired someone who was already employed". I hate that. Plenty of people need jobs who have none.
@@rachelm9350These days the two words I hate the most are Internal Hire..
"On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will downward revise jobs for the April 2023-March 2024 period by up to 1 million. This means that all "beats" recorded in the past year will have been misses and the US job market is in far worse shape than the admin would admit. "
@@makeaniiimpactYT look fwd to that. Post it everywhere if it comes in revised a million
Basically, as we all know the government is a bunch of liars
Forget your portfolio run for your life.
Canada fudged data too. Our last jobs report was 12,000 jobs lost, while 50,000 new immigrants arrived in the same month, with housing supply being lower then ever.
The housing market is starting to buzz because people know in their gut interest rates need to be cut back to 0%.
Anyone who believes the government numbers is being set up.
Another excellent video. Unemploymemt has risen for 4 consecutive months
at 4.3, the unemployment rate never got this low 1970-1998 and was much higher now for almost every year 1998-2018.
@@tachikaze222 Unemployment is calculated differently now than in the 70s buddy
This is one of the best videos I’ve seen made on this matter, extremely intelligent analysis on the outliers in data.
@@dysonbutler8345 u must could not b is inleggitent
I am still living off of my severance pay and have not applied for unemployment yet. I think all the recent mass layoffs are the same..
You should apply right away! They will ask if you received a severance pay for the week, so you won’t get a check that week, but your unemployment balance will the stay the same and you’ll be eligible for unemployment again faster.
Don't hesitate to get the ball rolling for unemployment....it takes them a long time to process stuff so by the time your severance runs out you won't be missing a bunch of money.
Unemployment is exploding here in Sweden and our central bank is still lowering interest rates.
Ja och att sänka räntorna kommer bara att få igång inflationen igen.
There trying to prop up the dead horse is why. Look lower interest rates please for the love God borrow money and spend it.
I have been working in tech for 30 fucking years. I have a reputation. I have at least 10 people, CEO's, CTO's, other coworkers, and many people throughout the industry who would back up my technical skill and I was downsized nearly a year ago and have been chronically underemployed since then. I went from making 165 a year to 35 a year... The last six months I have been making zero because the contracts all dried up. I'm not even sure how to make it work because I've been putting out resumes like wild thousand plus resumes and all I get are rejections and not even an interview not a fucking interview with 30 years of experience. I've already lost my house. Everything I own is in storage. I bought a container and stuff that onto family property. I don't even know how to get back on my feet from this. I even went down to like fucking Waffle House and Taco Bell to try to get a job and they told me they weren't hiring managers and the owner of the Waffle House that he wasn't sure if he wanted to hire me specifically because he knows I'm gonna leave the minute I can... Yeah, it's about to get really fucking bad. Nothing seems to be working the way I'm told that it must be working. It's like they keep screaming at you, don't believe your lying eyes. Well, I'm believing my fucking hungry-ass stomach. Oh, by the way, I went to the Catholic outreach around the corner to see if they might have some canned goods or something I can get to offset some of my food. And they told me they were out and I need to sign up and I'm probably about three months from getting anything from them because they're completely tapped. Everyone's using them right now.
Remember, the day before Black Tuesday, the newspaper said everything was fine, the economy was wonderful. They will absolutely lie to you in order to make sure that you keep feeding the system because the minute you lose faith in it, they lose their money. The reality is everything is at its stressed, maximum peak, there is no more room to wiggle. All it will take is one minor obstacle and it's over. It will happen.
Hate to break it to you but during that time you really should saved because even when your unemployed at least you have a backup plan. What’s going on isn’t right but you ain’t doing any favors either.
@@swordmaster305 I did, but my parents were elderly and fell sick in 2018, and dealing with them, then covid tapped me for resources. They then passed in 2022 - Lives are far far more complicated than a paragraph or two of a comment can ever let be visible. No hate here from me btw, you didnt know and it's just is what it is
My comment stands though, I depend on employment and was hoping to fight for some stability after they both passed, and just getting hit with this has made it all but impossible. I think the take away I was suggesting was "I've been in the top 15% or so of my local area for a long time, and was able to always get interviews, and now after nearly ~1000 submissions I get fuck all"
anything else about preperattion is an involved back story, the immediate needs are impossible to fulful because of overall economic struggles.
@@cantileveredapotheosis are you willing to move though?
@@biometal770 im not outright opposed, ive applied to places far and wide, but ive yet to get interviewed. I think that was the crux of my rant. The truth is, I just haven't been able to get an interview after all sorts of resumes being dropped off. I'm in the greater St. Louis metro area. I've applied to many places in Texas, Florida. I've applied to some places in Colorado. I've applied to some places in Iowa and Nebraska. No interviews.
Try the automotive industry. They need maintenance and smart guys like you.
Not sure about consumer confidence, but unemployment and GDP are both easily corrupted or misleading.
I run a service-based entertainment business. This is my slowest year since 2016 (excluding 2020…but only SLIGHTLY better than during the pandemic year). Business dropped off significantly earlier this year.
Who did you vote for in 2016 and 2020 if you are comfortable sharing?
Service based entertainment…. Strippers? 😂
@@chadwells7562 I mean…$20 is $20
If rates go lower. The dollar will go lower. If the dollar goes lower, the yen trade will collapse. Yen trade collapse synchronized global recession.
How have people levered on yen so enormously it’s so idiotic. Why do people even use leverage. America died when we got off the gold standard.
@fernmoss-456 facts 🔥 🔥 🔥 everyone keeps saying bidenomics I go crazy. The indoctrination is real especially with those on the right. Raganomics and Nixon is totally responsible for the wage stagnation of the last 40 years and taking us off the gold standard. Bush Jr and Trump ran the economy into the ground crashing both stock markets and job markets. Trump then let covid run rampant then gave the stimulus that led to this. You're spot on about Nixon I keep reminding republicans of this who blame everything on bidenomics. Thanks for living reality it's not many of us left.
Makes sense
Bingo. EVERYONE, from this frigging guy (who, at this point, I think is a Wall Streeter or a Mockingbird) all the way to the Swiss National Bank, were saying Cuts, and then Japan does the slightest thing to correct their recession (while we were making it worse by pushing failing CRE on them) and now ALL the data changes to suddenly mean we need raises, instead. Completely embarrassing.
@@jean-francoiskener6036 not really, AFAICT global equity is 100X bigger than the carry
I'm a buyer in the warehouse district of Los Angeles. It has been eerily dead. Very little semi traffic and docks have no trailers backed up to them.
My car is from 2004 my laptop from 2016 my phone from 2020. Clothes from the thrift store and I fix all my stuff myself. Tv broken, I fixed the backlight. Clutch in my car was worn, tore the gearbox out off the car and replaced it etc. saves me bigtime. No debt, no credit card. Oh, and I cook my own meals. Income is way more then I need and I save everything that's left on my bank account the end of the month to my savings account. It's not fancy or something but it gives me peace of mind.
That's the way to do it.
I don't understand why some people are so against being frugal.
Only buy the things you need, screw brand loyalty. Save money for big purchases and vacations. Don't use a credit card. Don't accumulate debt.
We live in such a disposable society, nothing is made with quality or to last anymore. Everything is made to throw away and buy again.
No shit, you want a cookie?, you make life sound so easy glad your not like the homeless sleeping on the side walk outside.
Then the bank will rob you of your money. Your 10 grand will be worth like 7 in couple years
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the Dollar's perceived safety.
Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions.
Consider a similar approach.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Jennafer Beaver Turner is the licensed advisor I use.
Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment
Thanks, I looked her up on Google and was very impressed by her credentials. I reached out because I need all the help I can get. I've scheduled a phone call with her.
I eat eggs everyday basically and i have for years and years. I went to buy 5 dozen at fred meyers yesterday and it was 19$! In 2019 is was between 6 and 8$. Its insane. It doesnt matter how few groceries i buy i barely leave without spending 50$
If we are doing so good, WHERE'S THE PROOF???
corporate profits = $3.2T, up from $2.1T in 2019
GDP up 2.8%. Granted we could be like Canada; where GDP is up, but GDP per capita is down. We just don't talk about GDP on a per person basis, while sentiment is.
@@tachikaze222Americas lost 3.2 trillion in savings in the last 3 years so ......
@@cultleader3572 Rich get richer, poor get poorer. Film at 11.
@@clifford629 Take out the government debt spending and the GDP is negative.
I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?
In my opinion, now is not the moment to rely on hearsay. Every individual, regardless of their level of experience as an investor OR in a financial market, requires guidance at some stage.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Jessica Lee Horst” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks for sharing, I just liquidated some of my funds to invest in the stock market, I will need every help I can get.
I’ve been trying to escape my job for months now, and everything I’ve applied too has not gotten back to me, not one. I’m also now in a deadline to find a new place to live, and with my current income I’d barely be able to afford to rent a room, let alone a 1 bedroom apartment. Feeling stuck and stressed, and these videos are not helping my existential dread 🙃
Your dread is felt, trust me. I have been unable to leave my parent’s house because rent around me is setting at about $1,000 for a one bed, one bath. I live in a semi-rural town, rent should not be $1,000 for a 1b/1b.
And a big fuuuck you to all the “we are hiring” signs, I have sent out over 12 resumes to entry level jobs and no one has even given me an opportunity for an interview. My resume is not the problem either, I have great references with good experience. I should not be feeling this way as a young adult, no one should.
We have a massive inequality gap. Companies are throwing people out and using new technology to replace them.
That's why revenues are still good
Who knows about the timing.. I took a stable maintenance job 1 1/2 years ago because of the interest rate inversion. Construction industry is at the mercy of bank lending and the fed got rid of the reserve requirements- there has to be banks in trouble. I’m sticking with my job.
Cries in massage therapist and no way to have known all this would have been happening when I turned 18
I work at the GM plant in Spring Hill, Tennessee and no one owns Cadillac: XT5, XT6, and the all-electric LYRIQ. Great vehicles and you will notice a lot of old cars in parking lot. We work there but we cannot afford our own cars.
thumbnail just missing flames and the :O face
The problem with economists versus the average American is that they live in two different economies. Wall Street is not reflective of General economic prosperity, the economic prosperity of the investing/owning classes. If you wanna see how the the average American is doing, you need to compare median wages to the price of housing and food and healthcare... And it's not looking good.
While the stock market line is going up and up and up, So two are the prices of commodities and necessities... But wage isn't. The average American house costs $400,000, while the medium wage sits somewhere around $65,000. You need roughly double that in order to be approved for a home loan. Rent typically sits between $2000-$2500 a month, so you can't even build savings by renting.
But this is all fantastic if you're a landlord who owns entire rental neighborhoods, or a shareholder In the various businesses that are constantly raising their prices well beyond the rate of inflation in order to create record profits year on year.
My old workplace was severely understaffed. Two workers on a weekday, one on weekends
Excellent work! Thank you.
You work for 40vrs to have $1m in your retirement, Meanwhile some people are putting just $10k in a meme coin for just few months and now they are multi millionaires. I pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life.
I have been in the market since 2022, I have a total profit of $795 thousand realized with my $65 thousand invested in Bitcoin, ETFs and other dividend income, I am very grateful for all the knowledge and information you have given me.
Alice Louis is a very legitimate and competent woman, her method works like magic, I continue to win with her new strategies.
Yeah get connected to Miss Alice Louis , here's her line👎🏻
+1
2102
The economists in the usa, remind me of the british economists in the uk (think tanks and the British ONS economists) and their disconnect with people who are feeling things change in the wrong direction economically (on the ground).
I'm wondering if it's so much a disconnect and not just a denial to slow the crash while they get out of positions safely. If they tell people the truth, sentiment crashes faster.
Remember that meme of the dude in the gas mask saying “it’s gonna get way worse”?
We’re close to the “way worse” part
Yeah when companies price gouge the shit out of you this will happen.
do you really think this is a coordinated effort across all sectors and all industries to price gouge? or do you think it’s more likely that terrible leadership and terrible policy has absolutely tanked our economy?
Jeff’s light shines away the shadows.
Once again, I bought the dip
😂😂😂😂
i hope u didnt dip to hospital in 2025. Good luck.
Good luck! I’m shorting hand over fist and will continue until this thing blows
@@bdek68 try to short just before Sept 6 job report, like 2-3 days before.
I love the firework if unemployment continue to inch up, and even if its doesnt and dip 0.1% to 4.2, sahm rule is still going higher lol.
They can only kick the can so far down. once it hit the wall, the house of card will come down very fast
@@Gattberserk Sahm Rule doesn't mean s---, just like the inverted yield curve doesn't really mean anything.
There are trillions of positive drivers in the economy now, so when people like Jeff only focus on the negative you're not getting an accurate picture of what's really going on.
Good one Doctor Jeff ! ; especially the historic article from the Washington Post, quiet remarkable.
The supply chain is okay but give it until October to revisit that idea when the longshoremen go on strike again and this time it will be both coasts.
BRICS meeting in October. De dolarization comes home to roost.
Congrats Jeff 100k subscribers! Well deserved ;)
I buy food and shelter
Haven’t purchased a wardrobe since I separated from military retirement… don’t need clothes or ppl in my life who judge me based on what I wear.
@@cgorman31 same. Too many people are so under educated on what would happen with that pandemic response and went out and completely boxed themselves in with yolo spending and debt. I did the opposite for the past 3 yrs and survived it all so far. When I saw Taylor swifts crowds in the media, I thought to myself ....."so many of those kids will regret that $500 for 3-4 hrs of entertainment in the end
@@jonEmontanaI always wonder who spends that kind of money on a ticket. I make 6 digits income and wouldn’t blow my money on that. I buy flowers and plants for my garden, and plant veggies
We will need enough coats when we can’t pay for heat any more!!!
I am also a retired vet... I have read over 100 books on all this stuff, and trade daily. I will warn you like I have my other Vet friends, and that is I would not fully count on that retirment to always exist. If things go very wrong VET's pensions and benifits will be at risk. I suggest you find at least one more income stream. It doesn't matter what .. except that hopefully you like it. If the US Govt keeps going down the path they are ...the dollar goes to zero, we default, or both. No one will be safe, not the elderly dependent on Social Security, and not Vets. It is sad to say but the math is starting to look pretty ugly. And every country in the world that has the interest payment on the debt exceed the cost of defense has fallen from the "king of the hill" status. We are already past that.
Excellent way to think. People with simple tastes will survive the future. We live in a time in which most people do not understand the difference between a necessity and a luxury.
It's already skyrocketed. Talk to anyone trying to get a job in the last year.
Corporations increased prices too much but kept the salaries the same. When people stopped buying, they started to lay off people, and when AI started to be functional, they lay off even more people. When people start to see lay off everywhere, they consume even less.
Corporations: shocked Pikachu face
Turns out printing trillions of dollars has an adverse affect on wages, and the profit margins of consumer goods.
Government stops printing money, the economy will sort itself out in less than a decade.
Is it possible that the consumer confidence is not an only predictor of unemployment but rather a driver of it?
For example - Low consumer confidence indicates how consumers will behave. They will consume less because of their low confidence. Less consumption leads to less revenue. Less revenue leads to layoffs.
They don’t sense it coming… they see it coming. Just look at the comments on your own video, it’s clear as day.
I know my workplace just posted a job listing for transparency reasons but the job is actually going to be taken by an internal employee because they're combining what used to be two positions into one after another employee had to resign. They're using the opportunity to cut labor costs.
We need a New Bretton Woods agreement as RFK Jr. has suggested. Put an end to this infinite money printing nonsense.
Do what’s right for you,
Don’t Vote Blue!
From the perspective of Austrian economics, there are several fundamental reasons why Keynesian economics is considered flawed or "wrong." Austrian economists, following the tradition of Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek, and others, emphasize a different approach to understanding economic processes, particularly focusing on the importance of individual actions, market signals, and the dangers of government intervention. Here are the key criticisms from an Austrian perspective:
1. **Rejection of Aggregate Concepts**: Austrian economists reject Keynes' use of aggregate concepts like "aggregate demand" and "aggregate supply." They argue that these aggregates obscure the complexity of individual decision-making and the heterogeneity of goods and services in the economy. According to the Austrian view, focusing on aggregates leads to misunderstandings about how markets work because it ignores the importance of individual prices and their role in coordinating economic activity.
2. **Business Cycle Theory**: Austrian economics offers a different explanation for business cycles than Keynesian economics. Keynesians believe that economic downturns are primarily caused by insufficient demand and advocate for government intervention to boost spending. In contrast, Austrian economists argue that business cycles are caused by distortions in the economy due to artificial credit expansion and low interest rates, often influenced by central bank policies. These distortions lead to malinvestments-investments in projects that are not sustainable in the long term because they are based on misleading price signals. When the inevitable correction occurs, it results in a recession.
3. **Critique of Government Intervention**: Keynes advocated for active government intervention to manage economic cycles, particularly through fiscal and monetary policies. Austrian economists, however, argue that such interventions only exacerbate economic problems. They believe that markets are best left to adjust on their own and that government intervention distorts the natural process of economic correction, leading to longer and more severe downturns. For example, artificially lowering interest rates (a common Keynesian prescription) is seen as distorting savings and investment decisions, leading to unsustainable booms followed by busts.
4. **The Knowledge Problem**: Friedrich Hayek, one of the leading figures of the Austrian School, argued that central planners, including those implementing Keynesian policies, suffer from a "knowledge problem." According to Hayek, no central authority can have all the information necessary to make decisions that are better than those made by individuals in the market. Markets, through the price mechanism, efficiently coordinate the actions of individuals by reflecting dispersed knowledge. Keynesian policies, by interfering with market signals (like prices and interest rates), disrupt this process, leading to inefficiencies and misallocations of resources.
5. **Long-Term Consequences Ignored**: Austrians criticize Keynes for his focus on short-term economic stabilization, often encapsulated in his famous remark, "In the long run, we are all dead." Austrians argue that this focus on the short term leads to policies that have detrimental long-term consequences, such as inflation, increased debt, and the erosion of savings. They believe that sound economic policy should consider the long-term health of the economy, emphasizing savings, capital accumulation, and sustainable growth.
6. **Moral Hazard and Dependency**: Austrian economists also argue that Keynesian policies create moral hazard and dependency on government support. When governments intervene to "save" failing businesses or to stimulate the economy, it can lead to a culture of dependency, where businesses and individuals expect bailouts or subsidies instead of making prudent decisions. This, in turn, can reduce the incentive for innovation, hard work, and responsible financial behavior.
7. **Subjective Value and Human Action**: At the core of Austrian economics is the principle of subjective value-that value is determined by individual preferences and cannot be objectively measured by aggregate metrics. Austrians argue that Keynesian economics, with its reliance on aggregates and models, overlooks the importance of subjective value and individual choices. This leads to policies that are out of touch with the real needs and wants of individuals in the economy.
In summary, from an Austrian economics perspective, Keynes was wrong because his theories are based on flawed aggregates, ignore the causes of business cycles, advocate harmful government intervention, and neglect the importance of individual decision-making and long-term economic health. Austrians believe that a free market, left to adjust naturally, is the best way to achieve sustainable economic prosperity.
Nice Chart Gpt work… you goof…lol😂
The comment is too long, start a UA-cam channel if you really have something to say.
TLDR garbage
Chat GPT aside austrian economics, like Austrian politics, fails on its face if you don't want a bunch of dead, instead of unemployed, workers.
Wow. Austrians were not very smart. How do you criticize aggrgate stats?
"You can't see clouds you have to look at the individual droplets of water". With this thinking you could never have any policy prescriptions.
Want to make housing more affordable? But it is affordable look at the people who are buying (even if the sample size is one person).
your Consumer Confidence to Unemployment rate three step analysis was amazing.
The continuously changing economic conditions in our society have made it necessary for thousands of peopleto find additional sources of income. Personally, I am looking at the stock market to fuel my retirement goal of $2m, my concern is the recent market crash.
buying the dip has proven to be profitable although for majority, the solution to their problem can be found only in specialized knowledge hence they seek guidance from well experienced advisors
Agreed, despite my rookie knowledge of investing, I have a financial advisor who did the trick in a bit more than 6 months after a lump sum capital of $500k, and I've so far made a fortune. I'm now buying real estates, gold and silver as advised by my FA.
truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor, mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Vivian Jean Wilhelm a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
gotta love how forward looking markets key off headlines of lagging indicators such as unemployment
Have tons of respect for you Mate, but I think the thesis on "the market has chosen elastic money.." is flawed. Global governments - have literally mandated - use of their centrally controlled fiat; how is that a "market"? Global governments - have literally mandated through law - that fiat money be de-coupled from gold; how is that a "market"? The US Government - had literally outlawed - gold ownership for decades! How is that a "market"? What many isn't taking into account is that bitcoin is the FIRST TIME EVER, that humanity has had a an actually decentralized money, with a fixed supply. The option of actually choosing a non-elastic money, that has no counterparty risk, has never existed until now, ......currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 4.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Milton Harper, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
He mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name,
@MiltonHarper
The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful. That's the whole point of investing.
If the market has taught me anything, it's that it always recovers, but I can't seem to focus on the long run, when major factors like my retirement and my reserve are wreaking havoc on inflation. I require a solid data trajectory and solution as soon as possible.
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Milton’s trade signal service.
Jeff U You are brilliant Thank you
Good stuff Jeff 👍
1. We bought 50 years of linear growth with exponential credit (debt expansion). 2. This has forced us into a distorted version of market economics that requires (for credit market purposes) an infinite growth model (even if only on paper). 3. This has created a “narrowing path” effect where both deflation and inflation become two cliffs on either side of the path, both with equally terrible economic consequences because the state of both the monetary base and credit markets are disastrously distended.
4. Incompetent energy policy has led to rampant inflationary pressure and created a fundamental drag on the most basic input factor for economic activity. 5. Item 4 is further exacerbated by grossly incompetent US and EU foreign policy, creating further energy markets instability.
6. China’s economy is effectively in a 30’s style depression as their real estate bubble is in full collapse, which is slamming a lid on Chinese internal consumption, while leaving regional and municipal governments effectively bankrupt. 7. Simultaneous to 7, the CCP has seen fit to make their industrial and investment policies increasingly hostile to foreign ownership and investment, which has resulted in a movement of manufacturing out of China to more hospitable locales.
8. Meanwhile, in the US, you have a multi-trillion dollar commercial real estate disaster spread across nearly every urban center and state, with gigantic exposure for the regional and super-regional banks (which is far more serious than the mega-bank residential real estate exposure in 2007-2008, because its systemically far more difficult to contain failures when the dominos start falling - which they will).
9. On top of all this, we have a demographic disaster just over the horizon that spells doom for the credit driven infinite expansion model. Some are banking on massive amounts of automation to help stave off the failure of this model, but that only addresses the production side (while also introducing huge disruptive variables), it doesn’t address future consumption collapse as we head into population decline throughout most of the developed and leading developing nations in the second half of the century. That may seem like a future problem, but not when it comes to long term debt instruments.
What we have here is a very ugly “perfect storm” brewing, and there are no easy fixes. First, anyone who thinks commodities (gold, etc.) is a solution needs to understand that in any situation involving a further escalation of inflationary pressure, gold is far far too illiquid for any government to not immediately clamp down on its use (e.g. it could very quickly distort all other markets, relatively speaking, which is why it will never be “money” again - well not without shrinking the global economy, and population, back to early 20th century sizing). There will be a massive, long running economic mess, intensifying in the second half of the century, but with a particularly sharp shock in the next 2-3 years as certain realities come home to roost.
The economy is fake. All it is, is a series of numbers made to incentive productivity.
Ever since the 70s the government has been coasting on fake productivity through printing of money, whilst disincentivizing domestic production.
So the easiest way out I see, is a three pronged approach.
1. Place a cap on the printing if money. The stabilizing of our Fiat alone would do wonders to the economy over the next decade.
2. Bring foreign production back home to the US. On paper this would destroy the US economy, because of the increased costs associated with it. In practice its actually cheaper if you look at it from the perspective of resource expenditure.
3. Shrink the government to 20% of its current size. This would also involve the restriction of government bailouts, so as to allow inflated industries to crash on their own, removing their drain on the actual economy.
It would also be necessary to axe hyperinflated liabilities such as social security, government pensions, and Healthcare. These systems were never sustainable.
Great work. Thanks
They revised the unemployment numbers by 1 million today. Nice video
My man hit 100K. Nice
You've come a long way over the last decade. Keep up the good work.
Hi there. It is very good to see this data with the regression equation and the R-square, the determination coefficient. However, keep in mind that the R-square ALONE is not a good indication of correlation: instead, you have to look at the Confidence Level, CL, which is a function of R-square and the number of data points, N. In other words, depending on N, you still may have a high CL for a low R-square even if R-square is around 0.1. So, watch out for N as well!!!
This is my first time watching this channel. This dude is super smart and super legit - all data-based, coupled with sound reasoning. I'm an instant fan. I don't understand how he doesn't have 2M subscribers.
Is it normal for a Costco parking lot to be packed every day of the month…. Economic indicators are unusually weird and out of sync with historically reliable indicators. Looking forward to US Debt hitting Quadrillion and SP 500 on its way to 7,000.
So we feel bad about our economy--who better to establish the truth?
Couldn't it be that low consumer confidence isn't so much predicting higher unemployment as it is causing it?
When less is spent on goods and services it must follow that retail, then industry slows down therefore sheds jobs to compensate for reduced profits.
1000 gm workers are gonna get layoff. I feel so sad.
1000 is just the start...
As sales drop off and inventory increases there will be more rounds.
They will just get bailed out like they did in 2008. That’s why they refuse to drop prices to an affordable level.
Union workers may have been demanding unrealistic wages? GM may have bought the woke nonsense and wasted too much money developing and selling EVs, they lose money on every EV sold
Congrats on 100k subscribers Jeff
very good video.
Nah
@@GameAintBasedOnnSympathy u obviously r long
Tbh I hope it all tanks and we get some kind of reset on prices
From £10,000 to £48,000 that's the minimum range of profit return every week I thinks it's not a bad one for me, now I have enough to pay bills and take care of my family.
Yeah for those who have expert traders not for people like me who have lost a lot of money since I started trading .
Could you please explain how beginners like me can start making this much 😢 .
As a beginner what do i need to do? How can i invest, on which platform? If you know any please share.
Thanks to mrs Patricia Jean Williams.
She's a licensed broker here in the states 🇺🇸
I believe it.
UMich Consumer Confidence up MoM, Flat YoY.
Consumer Expectations up MoM, +10% YoY.
I like my cherry picked data better.
Yo cherrys is sweet n deelishish
@@GameAintBasedOnnSympathy LoL tastier than Jeff's!
The truth is many of us believe WE HAVE ENOUGH! WHY WE GOTTA WORK OUR ASSES OUR ENTIRE LIVES TO LIVE? I’m tired of seeing all the waste in this world and would much rather promote efficient productivity rather then doing as much as possible simply for profit.
That's ultra late stage capitalism
Walmart: Going back to 11/23, Jeff's WMT "analysis" has included videos titled: "Walmart Just Came Out With a Major Warning", "It's Over, Consumer Confidence is Tanking", "Out Of Money, Walmart is Sending a Major Warning to the Economy", "It's Over..."
Since 11/17/23 UMich Consumer Confidence is UP.
WMT is +20/share or 40 percent, has paid 99 cents in dividends, blew out the earnings report, and is currently sitting at All Time Highs.
Funny, he must of just simply forgotten to say "I was wrong".
Your figures have nothing to do with what Jeff said. Watch again?
@@motrock93b LoL yeah nothing, nothing at all. Perhaps you should watch again.
Yeah, the accurate detective people are always early and he needs to be more clear.
But here, and in those past videos, he's talking about economic trend, direction and consumer sentiment, not the price of some stock you buy.
The big money with good analysts like Jeff are selling as you buy, in many cases, einstein.
... Funny, you forgot the stock mkt isn't the economy. Maybe, go back and re-watch all the videos??
Then report back when you've grokked all of it. (We won't wait.)
@@wagashiohagi My point was that I’m not familiar with any stock predictions he made while providing a macro economic analysis. WMT stock price has nothing to do with his analysis. In fact, it could be argued the two compliment each other. More sales at WMT (as if that has much to do with stock prices anymore) match his analysis that consumers are trying to save money.
@@cuchulainkailen While he didn't specifically talk about WMT stock price, he attempted to falsely use Walmart as some magic "It's Over, Out Of Money, Consumer Confidence is indicating doom" nonsense.
Consumer Confidence is UP 10 percent since 11/23 and rose 29 percent just 2 short months later. I'm sorry that WMT isn't a core portfolio holding of yours.
The "big money" would find Jeff's "analysis" laughable. That's why he makes silly-face UA-cam clickbait and isn't working for a reputable firm. The "big money" admits when they are wrong. Jeff, is the epitome of the "dumb money", and so are you.
Jeff has been wrong for years. There is no debating that, it is an indisputable fact.
Yay! I was an early adopter early 2023, took a 10 month break in there before getting my own layoff
Local steel plant just laid off 136 people after working only three days for the last couple of months(they get shared work) they make trailer suspensions for semi's. no layoffs for years till now.
what company? Meritor?
Chinese dumping steel all over the world rn
it's my first video of yours I see and it was very interesting and supported with solid enough statistical evidence ^w^
Your explanations are clear and straightforward. It's always an honour to have you here as a mentor, I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate and update us financially. Regardless of how bad it gets the economy, I still make over $28K every single week. I truly value Lia Lorenzo and her helpful guides.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional, but it's very advisable that you make use of professional
I know Lia Lorenzo, she has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in United State as she has been really helpful and have changed a lots of lives.
Interesting! But I'm new here. Please, how do I connect with Lia Lorenzo? I would appreciate it if you show me how to go about it
She is always active on wats apk👎👎
She is mostly active on what'sapk👇👇
Perhaps this is the "soft landing''.
I will singlehandedly keep the economic wheels spinning, by deploying some of the cash the FED's policy has given me in the stock-market since COVID
great! keep spending
Honestly a big thing is that they need to rework how they calculate the unemployment rate. Usually it doesn't account for anyone who's been unemployed past a certain point, not claiming benefits, or not interested in returning to the workforce.
Aka, stay at home parents are not accounted for... and I've seen SO many people actively deciding to drop out of the workforce because of the economic situation we're in where a lot of families are better off dropping that extra income because the cost of daycare alone makes their income insignificant. Cutting down an income stream also makes consumers more cautious about spending, and have less purchasing power overall, which in the long run can incentivise employers to lay off employees (who may also just decide to stay home for a while) because they're not seeing the demand and growth they want.
That's just one of the many factors that the current metrics for unemployement overlooks.
U-6 rate is the rate you want: U6RATE
No, they do not feel safe telling the truth
I have also heard that a lot more people will count as a "business" (don't remember correct wording) than logically should. That is, selling something on eBay when you aren't employed means you don't count, as you have a source of income and it doesn't matter that it was a one time sale to get a little more savings.
Maybe, but let's enjoy markets ripping higher until it doesn't
😂😂😂😂😂😂
watch out when QQQ gpes to 503