Get Used to 4% Inflation and 4-5% Interest Rates, Says Jim Bianco
Вставка
- Опубліковано 11 чер 2024
- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter @biancoresearch
Follow VanEck on Twitter / vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter / jackfarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter / forwardguidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter / blockworks_
__
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - Розваги
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
Stupid remarks!
His claim that unemployed illegal migrants will be picked up by surveys is beyond ridiculous
The only American who won't acknowledge this Administration's failed economic policies is Joe Biden. "Shrink-flation' is the least of our worries compared to rising rents and stagnant wages, but it is an undeniable indicator of how bad our inflation has gotten. I have $100k that i like to invest in a non-retirement account, any advice on that?
I would avoid index funds, mutual funds, and specific stocks for the time being. Right now, the best option is a fixed income of five percent. Put money aside for the times when the market really starts to bounce back.
45% of Americans do not invest in the stock market because of lack of guidance. Every year you don't invest, you are falling behind. I’m hitting numbers in the stock market I used to dream of… Going from $50k to $600k in my portfolio is surreal all thanks to insights from my financial advisor.
Being heavily liquid, I'd rather not reinvent the wheel. Since this strategy works for you, how can I contact your advisor?
Vivian Carol Gioia is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate $500K to achieve an optimal portfolio considering the uncertainty of stock prices and the economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.
I completely understand your concerns. Navigating market uncertainties can be challenging. It might be beneficial consulting with a financial advisor to provide personalized insights based on your specific situation.
Agreed, I always emphasize the significance of having an advisor. This has not only help to revamp my portfolio but has also kept me afloat since the covid-19 outbreak to date. I'm only about 10% shy of my first million dollar after subsequent investments.
are you for real? who is the professional that guides you please? enthused about investing for my eventual retirement but dont know how to go about it, for now I only invest in my 401k through my employer and gains are quite slow
Acknowledgment to Annette Marie Holt, one of the finest portfolio managers I've ever worked with. She's widely recognized with over two decades of experience, preferably you should look her up yourself.
insightful comments, I searched by her full name and found her page, no sweat.. already sent an email to schedule an appointment, she seems well matched for the job.. thanks for putting this out
But with the current inflation signals and as the Fed's has halted rate hikes, what are the best additions for a $500K portfolio to enhance the overall performance of my portfolio this year
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during downturns. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
Working with a financial advisor has been a game-changer for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that aligned perfectly with my risk tolerance and financial objectives. With their support, I've seen significant growth in my investments and gained confidence in my financial future.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I searched for her name on the internet, found her page, and reached out via email to schedule a conversation. Thank you.
The current market/economy is unnecessarily tougher for boomers/senior citizens, I’m used to just buying and holding assets which doesn’t seem applicable to the current rollercoaster market plus inflation is catching up with my portfolio. I’m really worried about survival after retirement.
Just buy Gold, the government has failed us or try to diversify your portfolio to other market sectors, that way your investment is balanced and you don’t get to make so much losses.
Indeed, gold proves to be a strong investment and a reliable hedge against the declining value of the dollar. I've held onto some gold for quite some time, and I'm thankful that my advisor's rapid adjustments to market fluctuations have likely prevented significant losses.
Please can you leave the info of your lnvestment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one.
Just research the name Angela Lynn Schilling. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Absolutely, inflation is a significant concern, especially given the current state of the global economy
With all the recent economic turmoil, I'm really worried about inflation
Yeah, it's definitely a hot topic right now. The pandemic caused disruptions in supply chains and led to increased government spending, which could contribute to rising prices
Inflation can erode the purchasing power of your money over time, especially in today's global economy
Exactly. With prices seemingly going up on everything, I'm not sure how to protect my finances
That's where a genuine financial consultant can really be of help. They can analyze your financial situation and recommend strategies to hedge against inflation
Amidst this market downturn, the idea of buying stocks is tempting. What do you think? I'm considering investing over $200k. Any thoughts on alternative strategies during this period of volatility?
It seems like there's potential, but caution is warranted. hence I will advice you get yourself a financial advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points
Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I used to depend on UA-cam videos but it wasn't working. I’ve been in touch with an advisor for a while now, and just last year, I made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
Your advisor appears skilled. How can I contact them? I've recently sold property and aim to invest in stocks, seeking guidance.
Lauren Marie Ehlers is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you so much for your helpful tip! I was able to verify the person and book a call session with her. She seems very proficient and I'm really grateful for your guidance
Jack, great job asking some of the technical questions that get to the bottom of the small arguments we hear all the time from pundits with pros and cons of different data sets. Jim awesome work with concise answers in a conversational style that keeps me interested.
Bianco has backed off his call of 6% on the 10 year. This FED has been terrible. Way too late to raise rates & do QT. Still no MBS sales. Inflation is raging: food, dining out, kids needs, insurance, home prices, rent, electricity, gas…all going UP. No deflation. We need much higher rates, but fed is done hiking
Jim bianCOPE proven so wrong on his bearish btc etf calls.
Higher rates and a smaller deficit
Lots of free rents these days
Keep interest rates high. Best for retirees who keep their money in MM's and T-bills.
All the people still working who are not among the country's rich would disagree.
High interest rate are good for pensioners and rentiers. Bad for lenders, so entrepreneurs and working class.
@@veitastic6866 I'm still working and pay my rent with 5% interest rates every month.
You can't build a system which depends on continuous economic growth to pay off ever growing debt, and then also siphon off all the working capital to citizens who have long since stopped producing anything.
If inflation gets stuck at 4%, get ready for 6-7% interest rates.
And fiscal deficits would explode.
Oh no, not 6 or 7 percent rates that totally normal
inflation is much much higher than that. All anyone talks about is how expensive everything is and the govt keeps pulling trillions out of their ass. That's inflation and not the sign of a booming economy lol
Great conversation!
Thanks or having Jim on, nice one!
You guys do an amazing job together. Very informative, and well conceived. Terrific questions as well!
I am a dairy farmer in upstate NY near the Canada border no less, the Hispanics are almost all illegal. Some of them specialize in making fake IDs or using other possibly deceased peoples social security numbers to fill out the paperwork and they pay taxes social security Medicare Medicaid that all accrued to someone else's or a fake social security number. It's been like this for 30 years or more lol since the H2A program is only for seasonal workers in dairy farms need year-round workers. Border patrol and other know what's going on and are told to leave farmers alone. Heck I have a few friends that are border patrol that grew up on farms. There are probably at least bare minimum 3 million probably closer to seven or eight million Hispanics who work who are illegal but they do all pay taxes including state taxes on a fake social security number very few anymore get paid cash under the table. The government's pretty much ignore it because they get tax revenue and they don't have any obligation to pay anything to the illegal workers. Pretty stupid system in my opinion... The waiting list for the average Mexican worker to come here Right now is about six decades to get a farm job so it's not like they don't want to come legally They literally can't because there's a dumb quota.
Don’t rock the boat. We have the same cheap labor illegals working our farms and scamming the US government here in our state also. More money for us owners.
I have no problems getting migrants who are vetted and trained for jobs that we have worker shortages. If the US gov is tolerating illegal labor in order to milk them for SS taxes to keep the SS trust fund flushed with cash to pay retirees but screw the illegal workers, the US gov policy is immoral.
Do you have any idea what it takes to come here legally?
It’s near impossible unless you are family of a citizen. Even then it’s extremely difficult.
We need to hand out green cards. All the Hispanics here in Texas are building everything we have going on.
Why would we want to just hand them green cards? Genuinely asking I have no idea the tax/benefit implications of a green card vs the current situation.
@@damonkatos4271I agree and know this well. My girlfriend is from the Philippines and she can't even come here in a tourist visa That's how hard it is to get here. It's literally impossible if you're a normal Mexican worker to get a work visa to come here That's why they have to come illegally. They do build everything and do all the hard work on the farms and so on. It's pretty frustrating how politically useless congress is to actually fix the system.
Thanks Jack .. good interviewee .. good timing 👍
at ~ 1:06:30 I found it interesting that Bianco failed to appreciate the irony that we could just put our money in money market fund and get over 5% interest and not even take the risk of a bond market decline and still get 2/3 of the average stock market returns, given that he at the same time is positing that we should get used to 4 to 5% interest rates. Next time he gets interviewed I would love if he got asked to resolve that cognitive dissonance of his. Otherwise, as always fantastic interview and thanks!
Jack you ask great questions. Jim’s the man
Thank you gentlemen... ❤
Great interview, Bianco always delivers.
I would 1000% get a robot blood draw if it can cut my costs. Honestly many other things too. Healthcare costs are out of control in the US. And it's unsustainable.
yeah well the insane mark ups aren't on the labor, they'll charge the fk out of you for that robot.
It's not an asset if they can't continue to make money from it.
i cannot understand how a 0.1% lower than expected inflation can so drastically affect the market. won't 0.1% be simply within some kind of measurement error and shouldn't carry such significance?
woah calm down with the logic pal that's not how these games are played haha
At 3% to 4% inflation yearly you're money would lose 10% of its value every 3 years not good
Jim bianCOPE proven so wrong on his bearish btc etf calls.
it's clearly much higher. I raised my prices 25% in the blink of an eye and I could do it 2 more times, people would still pay, and I still wouldn't be able to afford a house 😂
Stagflation depression incoming
Jim bianCOPE proven so wrong on his bearish btc etf calls.
How do banks stay solvent with 4% inflation and 5% interest rates
Every single bank in the US is technically insolvent. The FED itself is insolvent.
BTFP is the latest scam to paper over the losses.
Jim bianCOPE proven so wrong on his bearish btc etf calls.
@@yvrytry5rc You're right until you're not.
Hint: take some money off the table.
by charging 34% on credit cards and 9% on mortgages.
Jim is great
Basically stagflation.
Jim bianCOPE proven so wrong on his bearish btc etf calls.
I feel like this is an overemphasis on the difference between 2.6 and 2%. Considering the range of possibilities and the level of control fed has 2.6 is not that far from two. There's a reason most central banks in the world have a target range plus or minus 1% around their target.
My top picks for this bull run are Illuvium, Verasity and Cyberopolis.
They can't drop interest rates because the dollar will collapse. I mean, and still upon this game? And no country is gonna keep the reserve in dollars for long. So it's gonna collapse eventually, because they're paying interest higher than what they're receiving in taxes
Work permit, funny stuff. They just make up a number. No one verifies unless the business gets audited. Half of the hospitality workers around here are non-doc.
Exactly lol I'm a dairy farmer I'm even on the Canadian border we don't ask any questions they make up a number and we use it border patrol in the state and federal government gets tax money from these people and they have no obligations for any welfare for them or anything usually they're young guys that come here and work for 5 to 7 years save up money and go back home. Vast majority are very good people Just want to make some money.
Jim makes some solid points but I think one thing he’s missing in the soft data vs hard data analysis is that soft data leads hard data.
Labor force is accepting workers without work permit ;business owner are trying not to increase prices.. the administration knows this
Our economy is like a flailing fish, fighting for its life. The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
How can i get started when it comes to investing and passive income?
2-4% inflation over 10 years is a %20-%40 decline in value of the dollar. The FED needs inflation to make profit. We are the suckers.
Since the Fed is not going to raise rates further for the foreseeable future, should the cliché "Higher for longer" giving impression rates going higher, be changed to "Stay high for longer", or something more fanciful?
The problem is 4/5 is unlikely to work. You probably need 3% over inflation to get “voluntary” long term lending. In addition you need to get growth to reduce the debt ratio., so that means a higher rate. Best possible combination is is likely 8-10/7-5.
Good thing you weren’t sipping coffee 53:06
But how much of a rate cut? Everyone says 25 bps. What if 50 or 75 bps?
What's the point where most of the jobs are low end low wages part-time jobs that University graduate kids employed.
This was a great listen. I believe higher inflation will be the new normal now as well and the Fed just aren't admitting to the new reality. Any premature cuts could send commodities and resurgence of inflation rocketing back up. There is to much at stake to start cutting.
Commodities will perform well the coming years. There is a reason Warren Buffett has been loading the truck in $OXY.
Jack, can you do a debate between Dave Rosenberg and Jim Bianco?
It has to be higher, en executive order to raise federal pay by 5%, 6 months ago.
I´m bullish on VRA, Joystream and Cyberopolis. What do you think guys about my picks?
Time to put Jim in money jail, along with Demartino booth and Mike McGlone! They've been crying wolf for years now.
Cutting rates will ease the pressure on regional banks that borrowed short, 2 year, and lent long, and their borrowings are maturing and need to be re-borrowed but they are upside-down because short term rates are higher than the rate they lent at. Cutting rates might alleviate the pressure the banks are feeling but cutting rates will inflame an already bloated home price market, which will worsen inflation.
You can’t micromanage the neutral without taking account of the FACT the government is planning to increase the debt by atLEAST 20trillion $in the next 10 years ON TOP of existing 34trillion$. ,!!!!
Nice ATD Jack…!!!
1 trillion in government debt every 100 days is why we are not in a recession and we have inflation. The problem is that cant continue forever.
How will the economy get murdered? Market Cap / GDP is near all time highs so this is what will cause the murder of the economy, dying of its own weight. Once it comes back into alignment then the economy can proceed as usual.
The Fed has limited tools- when the debt is so huge most of the discussion should be how much can we borrow and can we possibly pay the interest. Many companies have been there for years, USA welcome to reality.!!
Gasoline is probably my 3rd largest expense and it's only 3% of cpi...
I work for DHS, so i don't know if this applies but undocumented immigrants get food stamps with the SSN 000-00-0000. So maybe they use that same number to work.
haha is this real?? Man thanks for posting.
@@garrettpatten6312 So real
@@garrettpatten6312 Google it. Most undocumented immigrants celebrate their birthday January 1st. That's the birthday that comes with the 000-00-0000 SSN.
When i apply for health insurance they ask me about my previous conditions. They should ask me how much pepsi and dorities i ate in the last 3 years.
J.Powell is gaslighting all of us ! 😂
That is going the Runway rung way
Allocation
Investment
FINANCIAL REPRESSION FOR THE MASSES….
You forgot to mention Cyberopolis. It will destroy other alts. Still early to ape in.
Cuts don't matter, man. We're always high. We already priced in six cuts this year, and here we are, haha.
that's hilarious thanks for pointing that out
But the Hard Data is derived through convenient metrics.
Yeah US budget will do fine with 4%+ rate...
Payroll data had 230,000 from the birth/death estimate which is a pure guess.
Digital silver in a digital age, litecoin is a digital precious metal, not a security. Litecoin is the oldest coin on the market after bitcoin, since its inception in 2011. Scarcity of litecoin is the key feature of its technology. Everyone tends to flock to digital silver and digital gold, litecoin and bitcoin, when things aren't going well. Litecoin is a decentralized digital commodity, just like bitcoin, but not even close so heavily concentrated in a few hands like bitcoin is. Both have Proof-of-Work consensus, and both have limited supply of coins. Only that litecoin is lighter, swifter, and hugely undervalued against bitcoin. Litecoin (LTC) being a digital commodity provides a decent inflation hedge as well because there will be mined only a limited number of 84 million litecoins in total.
Stock market soaring for the rest of the day? Not the US stock markets
But Tom Lee and Meet Kevin said inflation is already at 2%
Neocons want troops......blackrock wants all the land.....open borders and insane inflation.....i moved to a third world country......just paid 35 dollars for my motorcycle insurance....pay 400 for taxes....14 dollars buys me dinner on the beach watching the sunset for 2 ...including tip lol......going surfing tomorrow 😂😂😂
Headed to Thailand after the summer. Lived in my van the last two years because I refuse to pay these absurd rent prices or overpriced homes. Should be fun. Glad you made it out.
Geopolitics before Macro
After World War II, to limit Soviet influence, the United States, as the world's strongest nation, promoted global trade by ensuring safe shipment of goods worldwide through its Navy. In exchange, trading partners used the U.S. dollar, which became the cornerstone of a new, highly successful globalized business model. Although initially a strategy to counter the Soviets, globalization continued after the Soviet collapse due to its mutual benefits. However, with increasing scrutiny on the U.S. and the USD-evident from Japan's attempts to challenge the reserve currency in the late 1980s, the EU's challenge during the 2008/09 financial crisis, and recent moves by BRICS nations and Saudi Arabia-the U.S. finds diminishing returns in acting as the global police. Maintaining security requires over 500 destroyers, while the U.S. has only about 70, primarily to protect its aircraft carriers. Globalization also led to the offshoring of U.S. industries, causing significant job losses in cities like Detroit. De-globalization could benefit the U.S. by bringing industries back home, reducing reliance on critical supplies from abroad, and shifting the burden of regional conflicts. As global investments flow into the stable U.S. economy, the country could remain strong while others might suffer from reduced global integration. Therefore, it may be in the U.S.'s interest to support de-globalization, accept more regional conflicts, and maintain higher interest rates.
they are taking the jobs, which is stalling the cuts
Get rid of the fed, and you don’t have to worry about the dots.
didnt we have many frequent recessions prior to 1913 - FED creation? Last recession 15yrs ago so maybe Feds not all bad?
This won’t age well.
Core at 3.4% is like going 85 in a 55. You're getting a ticket
If he keeps rates high for 6 more months, significant recession is almost inevitable IMO!
2 percent over time!
If people feel bad about their economic situation they just have to change their political views??? Interesting
I have to take a little bit of an exception as to what’s being said here. Undocumented or not they are still unemployed. That has an impact on our economy. They still go to our schools, use our medical facilities, and drive on our roads. Not to mention it still takes resources to support them, so in my opinion, yes, they count.
Yup they eat the food and consume the gasoline and water and electricity.
Illegals get no handouts .... And can't access any services
Clearly Jack and the whole blockworks woke team prefers MSNBC over any other news source
Market up until 2028
The population is broke , the auto business is a good barometer, first to go under lol
❤❤❤✝️✝️✝️
God bless you all, I hope we all get many x returns by the end of the bull run. I am betting in 100 bucks that Cyberopolis will do 150x by the end of 2024.
All these analysts, equals more B.S.
The type of money you use shapes your mindset: Bitcoin fosters innovation and financial independence, while fiat breeds dependence and inflation.
It’s on you and nobody else. Stop whining over your choice.
Hes been wrong for 18 months
Stupid remarks!
This guy loves to talk out of his 😮
What a. waste of talent, energy and time analysing a group of clueless criminals setting monetary policy.
Jim Bianco lives in his own world lol
How clueless
Jimbo turned to a doomer and been wrong....guess markets humble everyone.
Oh we’re getting to the elysium analogies, I thought that this wouldn’t be until at least 2027
Unemployment is slowly creeping up.
for fuck sake, inflation ain't 4% homie is clinging on to this shit. let it go