Did Trump win his trade war?

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  • Опубліковано 4 лют 2025

КОМЕНТАРІ • 259

  • @JamesKerLindsay
    @JamesKerLindsay  17 годин тому +22

    So, did Trump win his trade war with Mexico and Canada? While many will argue that they merely agreed to do what they are already doing, but more visibly, Trump will see this as them blinking and giving in. So, is this really the end of the story? Or can we expect further threats, either in a month or down the road? And should we now expect to see trade threats against other countries? As always, let me know your thoughts in the comments below.

    • @TheAnnez0r
      @TheAnnez0r 17 годин тому +2

      I think he failed miserably...For now. He united Canadians which could even play into the results/ way of governing Canada after the next election. If the conservatives win, they might think twice about aligning with Trump's ideologies after pissing off Canadians so much. Quebec is gearing up towards the PQ being elected for the next election with a promise of a referendum for independence...The timing of Trump unifying Canada could work against the independentist movement...I've been wanting to be able to vote for a referendum once in my life as a younger Québecoise who missed the boat on this matter. The fact is Québec will always side with Canada over the U.S. Better the devil you know than the one you don't.

    • @MDFification1
      @MDFification1 16 годин тому +15

      They did not even agree to do what they were already doing. They agreed to talk about their willingness to do the things they were already doing in exchange for discussing other issues on border security (like American guns crossing into Mexico) that weren't part of Trump's demands. Trump's various other demands (mostly nonsense about trade deficits) were ignored.
      Yes, Trump claimed victory and his press secretary said Canada and Mexico have "bent the knee" but it's shocking to see you entertaining this posturing instead of focusing on the meat of the matter. No matter what happens, Trump's regime will claim victory. They always claim victory. It's PR, not IR. But no real concessions were granted, and there's no indication yet that this won't restart in 30 days.

    • @BasicLib
      @BasicLib 16 годин тому +5

      It’s America scale Brexit

    • @jamesodell3064
      @jamesodell3064 16 годин тому +1

      There are no winners in a trade war, only losers.

    • @EM-od6yr
      @EM-od6yr 16 годин тому +6

      It's nothing other than an internal victory to keep his base happy. Would've actually been a real victory if he got some real concessions from Mexico and Canada.

  • @LookBackHistory
    @LookBackHistory 16 годин тому +83

    See, this is why I like this channel. Who else starts a video on US-Canada-Mexico trade by going back to the frickin' Silk Road?

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  16 годин тому +23

      Haha! If anyone would appreciate that, it would be you. Thanks a lot! :-)

    • @gikigill788
      @gikigill788 6 годин тому +2

      ​@@JamesKerLindsayYou're a champ Professor, keep on keeping on.
      Always a good day to hear your thoughts and your smooth voice.
      Maybe a second career in audiobook or TV narration?

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  6 годин тому +1

      Thank you! ☺️

  • @Gillemear
    @Gillemear 13 годин тому +9

    Typical Trump- go overboard, get a tiny, inconsequential change, declare victory ! Well at least we know his modus operandi early.

  • @williamkash7162
    @williamkash7162 16 годин тому +30

    This will be Trump's MO moving forward; his idea of "negotiations" has always been based on threats and coercion instead of seeking common ground through discussion and exploration. Thus his refusal to repudiate military action regarding his comments on appropriating both the Panama Canal and Greenland.

    • @johnforeman6620
      @johnforeman6620 15 годин тому

      He is a bully. It appears a lot of Americans like bullies as they get it confused with power.

  • @MrMordechaiAnilevich
    @MrMordechaiAnilevich 15 годин тому +38

    Like most of what Trump does, it was 90% theater. I was hoping for Trump to announce "Mexico and Canada, you're FIRED."
    The previous administration had already secured agreement to deploy troops to the border.. also, there is very little fentanyl that comes in from Canada. Economic brinkmanship isn't a sound economic strategy.

    • @robertortiz-wilson1588
      @robertortiz-wilson1588 12 годин тому

      The Biden administration asked to red deploy troops during the election year, knowing the verbal agreement would expire after the election.
      Trump had troops on Mexico side for almost the entire entirety of his first term. Now he wants to bring it back permanently and make it permanent with signed agreements.
      If you think you’re getting the whole story with mainstream media and UA-camrs, you’re delusional.

    • @shreeray6410
      @shreeray6410 8 годин тому

      But this theatre panics the stock market, and innocent people or investors who have nothing to do with Trump lose money. This is not only happening in Wall Street, it's happening heavily in Asia which has nothing to do with either US Mexico or Canada. The world is very interconnected. The US will become an extremely 'inflated' market to trade, but this is making the dollar stronger and other currencies lose value. A day is going to come when all the Central banks will release dollar and trade with a different currency. Trump looks like an emperor trying to hold that losing empire of dollars, which is backfiring.

    • @FlashdogFul28
      @FlashdogFul28 2 години тому

      They only put troops on the board for the election. As it was a Trump talking point. It was a move on the political chess board not a action of belief. What they did before counts more than a sticking plaster to cover a disaster.

  • @Licensed_To_Chill
    @Licensed_To_Chill 16 годин тому +27

    I think the reason the Colombia, Canada and Mexico tariffs were different because the rates were so high. Colombia's were designed to be intimidating and punitive, but even the 25% number for Canada and Mexico would be very damaging to trade across N. America. China is a different story. Not only are the rates lower, but they have been through this once, in 2018-2020. They weathered that experience fairly easily. And today, they are much less reliant on trade with the US as they have become the top trading partner for something like 120 countries. Xi can again successfully pin China's economic woes on a foreign source, as he did before. Finally, emerging markets in the "Global South" may see China as the more stable, reliable option that is open to business, while America is the schizophrenic power that will open to you one day, and then punish you for the very trade agreements they proposed on another day.

    • @jacobdavison93
      @jacobdavison93 14 годин тому

      Ain’t nothing reliable about Chinese financing. They simply nationalize your property if the bill runs too high. Cant see many foreign leaders willing to take that gamble with a strong America

    • @TJ-wt9op
      @TJ-wt9op 6 годин тому +1

      Doesnt China make huge investments into nations that cant afford to pay back, being forced to sign 99 year leases for military bases? American economic posturing is worse?

    • @Kalimdor199Menegroth
      @Kalimdor199Menegroth 5 годин тому +1

      "Finally, emerging markets in the "Global South" may see China as the more stable, reliable option that is open to business, while America is the schizophrenic power that will open to you one day, and then punish you for the very trade agreements they proposed on another day."
      China is open to business but on its own terms, which is usually in the detriment of foreign countries and business entities. You can't do business on Chinese territory without your company associating itself with a Chinese entity, and giving the Chinese entity 51% share, meaning that they pull the shots on Chinese soil. In addition, you have to forfeit any intellectual property that you own. These conditions, as well as China's dumping practices have lead many states that offshored businesses there to decouple themselves. FDI's have been leaving China since the first Trump term and it hasn't stopped.

    • @falsevacuum4667
      @falsevacuum4667 4 години тому +2

      @@Kalimdor199Menegroth Not anymore. In 2018, they allowed foreign enterprises to control 51% stakes in their joint ventures with Chinese companies in many sectors. By 2022, they removed the joint venture requirement in the automotive industry entirely, so foreign investors can own 100%, and by 2024 they did the same by removing the joint venture requirement for tech companies. China has fairly aggressively opened its market over the last 5-10 years.

    • @Kalimdor199Menegroth
      @Kalimdor199Menegroth 4 години тому

      @@falsevacuum4667 Yet still FDI's and foreign entities are leaving. Especially western ones.

  • @charlycharly8151
    @charlycharly8151 17 годин тому +18

    Canada and Mexico are relatively easy to threaten since a large part of their economy depends on the US. The EU is a much more complicated story: it relies way less on the US (for some sectors like tech yes, but not globally), and the EU as a whole is a larger economy. Politically weakener than the US, but who knows what changes a real trade war may bring.

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  17 годин тому +21

      Thanks. Yes, you’re right. This is a very good lesson why being in the EU protects many European countries against threats from larger powers. On this note, I think it’s going to be a very useful additional lesson as to why Brexit is such a disaster for the UK.

    • @the0ne809
      @the0ne809 17 годин тому

      Now the EU relies heavily on US gas since they needed to diversify away from Russia. Also, many of the EU countries buy weapons from the US.

    • @shakiMiki
      @shakiMiki 15 годин тому +5

      Canada & Mexico are the US's biggest trading partners. The dependence goes both ways. Moreover, US production relies on components from both countries. In fact there is plenty of manufacturing whose production is cross border. And in international distance matters. This all comes at a cost to the USA & Americans.

    • @johnforeman6620
      @johnforeman6620 15 годин тому +1

      ​@JamesKerLindsay not another brexit moaner😊. Yours is common sense denied by those who wanted us out.

    • @Mr_Fairdale
      @Mr_Fairdale 9 годин тому

      The EU is only comparable when measuring PPP, otherwise it's not a larger economy

  • @alexandrepereira7521
    @alexandrepereira7521 14 годин тому +4

    This has to be my favourite politics/geopolitics channel a the moment. Fair and unbiased, which is very refreshing.

  • @zipfelchefchen6816
    @zipfelchefchen6816 4 години тому +2

    Trump's idiotic negotiation tactics will lead to a dismantling of US relations across the world

  • @archstanton3931
    @archstanton3931 17 годин тому +11

    A 1% swing in the S&P is actually pretty small; even double that isn't unexpected on any given day. The Dow would be a better marker given that the S&P is pretty tech heavy whereas the Dow tends to track more industrial stocks. I say this without having checked if / how much / in what direction it moved.
    That aside, whether or not its a victory depends on whether you see the goals of the tariffs to be mainly economic or mainly political. If the point was to protect / incubate American industry, then no. If the point is to signal to his base, then maybe. If the point is to make foreign countries bend to America's will in aiding American drug and immigration policy, then yes. I personally consider it to be mostly the latter. Either way, the threat of tariffs works best if they're not actually applied, because I doubt the political will to maintain them for long exists for a number of reasons.

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  17 годин тому +8

      Thanks. Good point about the stock market. Overall, I completely agree with you. Several others have said it isn’t a victory because Canada and Mexico are simply doing what they already agreed to do. But that’s not how Trump or his supporters will see it. They’ll argue that it’s evidence that trade threats work. But you’re right. The threats work best as long as they don’t have to be carried out. Then again, but going through with tariffs against China, he’s also tackled the bluff arguments. He’s shown that he will impose them if necessary. This will almost certainly make others think twice.

    • @allydea
      @allydea 17 годин тому

      Canada and Mexico also announced retaliatory tariffs and Canada said they would take US to court over breach of agreement (agreement that actually Trump negotiated and sign). Showing his base that he meams business is the only win. I doubt the rest of political class in the world didn't know Canada and Mexico didn't actually changed anything because of the threat.

    • @jacobwest4771
      @jacobwest4771 16 годин тому +3

      It doesn't matter how much of a downturn the market took; the fact is, it took a downturn. The tariffs spooked investors and unnerved a lot of GOP congresspeople. But most importantly, Trump considers the stock market his personal gauge on how well he's handling the economy. He routinely boasted about stock performance during his first term. So any downturn is going to make him more willing to pursue options that bring it back up. Canada and Mexico gave him token concessions, nothing more; they were both prepared to retaliate, and didn't blink. This isn't a Trump victory by any measure.

    • @archstanton3931
      @archstanton3931 14 годин тому +1

      @@jacobwest4771 Obviously major market movement will affect Trump's policies; 1% is indistinguishable from normal activity. The proof of it either way will be seen about a month from now.

  • @electricVGC
    @electricVGC 13 годин тому +4

    I think Mexico lost more than Canada did

  • @kaidi223
    @kaidi223 15 годин тому +8

    Not much win here as the canada boarder deal already announced back in December and Mexico already deployed 10k troops to the boarder back in 2021. So he crashed the stock market for nothing.

    • @johnforeman6620
      @johnforeman6620 15 годин тому +2

      No. He will spin this to demonstrate that he is the best negotiator and is the MAGA deliverer.

    • @mardbenzmura1446
      @mardbenzmura1446 Годину тому

      @@johnforeman6620 Tariffs and the threat of a trade war can be used as a monitoring tool. It could still be a win, theoretically.

  • @casey203
    @casey203 16 годин тому +8

    Us: “What’s going on with that trade war last weekend?”
    Prof: “Well back in 100BC China started international trade…”

    • @sait_k
      @sait_k 15 годин тому +2

      "What's going on with the trade war?"
      Prof: All these wars can be related back to the conflicts between Mongolians and Chinese in the 13th century.

    • @Omer1996E.C
      @Omer1996E.C 7 годин тому +2

      He was trying to clarify why trade is too important to be sanctioned. Civilizations rose ONLY by trade, none did by otherwise

  • @krakhedd
    @krakhedd 16 годин тому +35

    Lest we forget, Mexico didn't move additional troops, Sheinbaum played Trump by making him believe they were being re-assigned from elsewhere when they were in fact already there

    • @blackwatertv7018
      @blackwatertv7018 16 годин тому

      Pretty sure Donald Trump personally is aware of both that situation and Canada situation but his base isn’t and he was doing this whole drama for his base. Who get a kick outta it.
      All he managed to do successfully is irritate our trading partners and turn at least two countries population against him.

    • @caliphate6774
      @caliphate6774 15 годин тому +3

      How could you possibly know that unless you have detailed information on all troop movements? You are literally making up stories that you want to believe.

    • @Ιωσήφ-σ2λ
      @Ιωσήφ-σ2λ 14 годин тому

      This is the most bullshit I’ve read in a while. Sheinbaum caved in. Trump win. Mexico needs to be held accountable. This is coming from a Mexican American

    • @enricogattone432
      @enricogattone432 13 годин тому

      ​@@caliphate6774Mexico already agreed to assign that identical number of troops to border security in 2021. So, the possible cases are:
      1) these are the same troops already employed, so trump was once again tricked by the opposite side due to his overconfidence and really bad dealing abilities
      2) these are additional troops, so trump wasted political capital, heavily diminished US international soft power and disrupted US economy to achieve what Biden achieved with a smile and a handshake.

    • @mcsquarish
      @mcsquarish 12 годин тому

      It's all theatrics for his brainwashed followers

  • @timlewis2605
    @timlewis2605 16 годин тому +2

    Can you please make a video about the relationship between the EU and China? It seems like with Trump imposing tariffs against both of them, there may be a mutually beneficial relationship between them which may soon develop. Thanks for your videos.

    • @jacobwest4771
      @jacobwest4771 15 годин тому

      That is what happened after the first Trump trade war. The only reason that was upended was because of COVID, and a general European willingness to cooperate with America's more aggressive China stance. From the European standpoint, I don't think there is much difference between China and America under Xi and Trump.

    • @sjoormen1
      @sjoormen1 8 годин тому

      That would be interesting, yes. Just to see how deep in the troubles we are.

  • @Tripple_Threatt92
    @Tripple_Threatt92 8 годин тому +3

    No one ever mentions that all of these countries have higher tariffs against U.S. than the U.S. has against them

  • @atomm3331
    @atomm3331 17 годин тому +30

    No, he just started stupid fires with our closest friends and allies. I don’t think he even knows what a tariff is or how it works. It’s the beginning of idiocracy.

    • @the0ne809
      @the0ne809 17 годин тому

      the beginning?

    • @Doosteroni
      @Doosteroni 17 годин тому +5

      Mexico isn't our closest friend or ally lol

    • @the0ne809
      @the0ne809 17 годин тому +3

      @ I am sorry to inform you but they are. You do not have to agree on everything to be a close ally.

    • @TheSwedishHistorian
      @TheSwedishHistorian 16 годин тому

      @@Doosteroni Ever heard of NAFTA? your ties are immense

    • @jamesodell3064
      @jamesodell3064 16 годин тому

      @@TheSwedishHistorian NAFTA, Do you mean the agreement Trump made during his first term.

  • @WorldTravelerCooking
    @WorldTravelerCooking 11 годин тому +3

    Secondly a larger point about European federation would go back to the European Coal and Steel Community, founded in 1950 based on the Victory Day speech of Robert Schuman. The goal there was to specifically use intergovernmental organizations and free trade to ensure France and Germany could never go to war again with eachother (or frankly anyone else). This has been remarkably successful even in future manifestations (the EEC and EU).

  • @thetitansofbrahma6702
    @thetitansofbrahma6702 14 годин тому +22

    You did not even mention a key factor in the U.S./Canada situation, the repeated attacks on Canada's status as a soveriegn nation by the American president. Though he did not threaten military action, he spoke plainly of using "economic force" to make Canada submit. For many Canadians it has been alarming to hear this dismissed as mere "trolling". The damage here is not to "public relations". It is a visceral and existential loss of trust of the U.S. as our closest friend.

    • @nirvanachile24
      @nirvanachile24 13 годин тому +4

      As an American, I completely agree. I'm very sorry for the behavior of the President and of some of my fellow countrymen. We'll just need to ride out these next four years and hope for better days at the end of it.

    • @robertortiz-wilson1588
      @robertortiz-wilson1588 12 годин тому +2

      We are not friends. We are geopolitical allies.
      Your government, government backed to media, and most visible voices on social media have been insulting the USA and Americans for decades for not being sufficiently liberal. Even if it would be idiotic and destructive to do so. With Canada themselves now doing a U-turn on immigration as one example.
      I don’t care that Canadians did so or passively allowed others to echo such talking points without objection because their shallow near nonexistent identity is primarily centered around being “not-Americans.”
      Most Americans who don’t pay much attention to Canada don’t really think about them and just see them as more polite Americans, or they blindly echo Canadian insults at their fellow countrymen. Those who do pay attention to Canada, particularly a new generation online, despise the outward façade Canada presents for what it’s said about us for decades. I am one of them.
      Again, we are geopolitical allies. We are not friends.

    • @zacharyhenderson2902
      @zacharyhenderson2902 11 годин тому +3

      'repeated attacks on Canada's sovereignty?' what are you smoking

    • @thetitansofbrahma6702
      @thetitansofbrahma6702 11 годин тому +1

      @@robertortiz-wilson1588Thank you for sharing your perspective.

    • @thetitansofbrahma6702
      @thetitansofbrahma6702 11 годин тому

      @@nirvanachile24Frankly I am more concerned for American friends and family right now, but am optimistic about the long term.

  • @brockborrmann2931
    @brockborrmann2931 15 годин тому +9

    As a Canadian i feel like we won economically. The can has been kicked down the road a month, which might be just long enough for Trump to see the effects of all the other tariffs and decide to scrap Canadian tariffs altogether.
    I'm not sure, but this could be good for Canada? Americans have to pay more for cheap Chinese steal than Canadians do, a boost to Canadian manufacturing?
    Trump also soured the feelings of a lot of Canadian MAGAs

    • @johnforeman6620
      @johnforeman6620 15 годин тому

      On the other hand, Trump will spin it as a victory for himself forefilling his MAGA promises. His supporters need the pain to show them the error of their support.

  • @dave3gan
    @dave3gan 14 годин тому +1

    Once bitten twitch shy, the rest of the world will surely try to limit their exposure to the US

  • @redjacc7581
    @redjacc7581 16 годин тому +6

    mexico is simply NOT doing enough to stop illegal migration, not them crying about this.

  • @michaelpilos
    @michaelpilos 4 години тому +1

    Trumps short term leverage, forgets long-term instability and weakens global trust in US ☝🏼

  • @mohamedadan7867
    @mohamedadan7867 16 годин тому +6

    Somaliland needs urgent recognition to be part of the world, China ,Djibouti and Somalia, Egypt, agreed to engage in a diplomatic war with Somaliland after Somaliland signed an MOU with Ethiopia.

  • @JohnEboy73
    @JohnEboy73 10 годин тому +1

    One winner could well be the Canadian Liberal Party.

    • @pixellordm8780
      @pixellordm8780 6 годин тому

      Unlikely. green & NDP however stand a real good chance. Canada isn't a 2 party democracy where both sides can just radicalize the other like the USA is.

  • @WorldTravelerCooking
    @WorldTravelerCooking 11 годин тому +1

    For most of the world, GATT has a big downside, largely serving Western colonial/neocolonial needs over those of developing countries. In particular the provisions against barriers to export force resource-exporting countries to remain low on the value chain and thus not develop while continuing to supply former colonial powers with the same cheap natural resources they would have been just taking from the colonies.

  • @balabani
    @balabani 17 годин тому +14

    The cat is out of the bag. Canada will be diversifying it’s markets so that never again it will subjected to this kind of blackmail.

    • @SueFerreira75
      @SueFerreira75 17 годин тому

      But Canada is still vulnerable to being annexed in the same way as Putin "annexed" Ukraine.
      The Convict In Chief is an ignorant, cruel and expansionist dictator and wants Canada as the 51st State for its resources, access to the Arctic Ocean and to dominate by fear, always to dominate with fear.

    • @CedarHunt
      @CedarHunt 17 годин тому +8

      Diversifying where?

    • @snewsom2997
      @snewsom2997 17 годин тому +4

      Whose Navy is going to guarantee the passage of those ships?

    • @Gallalad1
      @Gallalad1 16 годин тому +3

      @@CedarHunt China and the EU

    • @jeffmorris5802
      @jeffmorris5802 16 годин тому

      Lol that's hilarious.

  • @andrewsarantakes639
    @andrewsarantakes639 Годину тому

    Leverage in negotiations is what all parties need. Politics is accepting the fact in knowing neither party will get 100% of what they want to accomplish. Pragmatism is the pathway to a successful negotiation. Excellent content!!

  • @justinfowler5761
    @justinfowler5761 4 години тому

    As an American, I just don't think it's the time to be taking our allies for granted.

  • @drscopeify
    @drscopeify 14 годин тому

    The paper that officially declare tariffs does not have to be signed for real world impacts to play out. Canadian companies will not wait and see, some will take action to diversify their source of goods, Canadian local Governments will distance from USA sources of services and goods and Canadian people will feel uncomfortable and maybe even humiliated by buying USA made goods - so we will see in the coming months the impact on US-Canada trade volumes which could really drop off - regardless of any signed paper.

  • @bilic8094
    @bilic8094 17 годин тому +3

    I think with Mexico the tariffs will remain off since the Mexican president put 10 thousand troops on the border but with Canada Trump hinted at wanting U.S. banks in Canada plus agriculture and dairy products being accepted so Canada still might get the tariffs.

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  17 годин тому +2

      Thanks. I think you could well be right. I get the sense that this isn’t the end of this. And even if Canada doesn’t get hit by them, I strongly suspect others will.

    • @MihailBFC
      @MihailBFC 14 годин тому

      US banks have operations in Canada...wtf are you on about 🤡

    • @alexandermichelotti9069
      @alexandermichelotti9069 14 годин тому

      @@bilic8094 You’ll drive yourself crazy trying to make sense of Trump’s threats and musings.

    • @bilic8094
      @bilic8094 13 годин тому

      ​@@alexandermichelotti9069I personally like Trump where I live it's all maga.

    • @mcsquarish
      @mcsquarish 12 годин тому

      @@bilic8094i feel sorry for you. I prefer to still be able to look my children in the eyes.

  • @robertortiz-wilson1588
    @robertortiz-wilson1588 12 годин тому

    Wonderful job so far in the second term! As a coalition member, I am thrilled.
    Good video overview.

  • @katiecannon8186
    @katiecannon8186 17 годин тому +11

    The reality is that NAFTA was designed to benefit the U.S. more than Mexico or Canada.
    But, because America failed to invest in its domestic economy, we hallowed out our own economy.
    So now Trump supposedly wants to fix NAFTA - that mostly benefits America
    Not understanding that America’s problems are lack of domestic investments. Most especially in education, innovation, social services, healthcare & a Job Guarantee

    • @Doosteroni
      @Doosteroni 17 годин тому +3

      The problem isn't that we have failed to invest, the problem is that we haven't done anything to prevent companies from offshoring all of their labor.

    • @snewsom2997
      @snewsom2997 16 годин тому

      They invested, just where it was cheaper to do business. Prior to NAFTA and the China entering the WTO, it was cheaper to do that investing here in the US

    • @jacobwest4771
      @jacobwest4771 15 годин тому

      "So now Trump supposedly wants to fix NAFTA" Trump renegotiated NAFTA with both countries during his first term, and undoubtedly considered it "fixed" in his favor. Now, he has ripped up that agreement in order to score some more political victories. He just enjoys playing hardball for its own sake, and for that of his ego's.

  • @ham.strings
    @ham.strings 15 годин тому +6

    The US benefits massively from the current status quo. Shake things up if you want, but you may not like where you end up.

    • @mcsquarish
      @mcsquarish 12 годин тому

      As long as he's making a few more billions, it's all good

    • @Mr_Fairdale
      @Mr_Fairdale 9 годин тому

      I think the rest of the world benefits quite a bit more. They need the USA more than the USA needs them.

    • @Mr_Fairdale
      @Mr_Fairdale 9 годин тому

      Other way around, bud

    • @crayonsukrou913
      @crayonsukrou913 9 годин тому

      Oh really? Benefit in what way?
      Cheaper goods is the only benefit, but at the cost of losing technological edge (due to forced tech transfer), and also losing millions of manufacture jobs.
      Global security is of no concern to the US. America has enough nukes to turn any hostile country into radioactive wasteland within few hours, and America (alongside Russia) is self-sufficient in food and energy production.
      During Cold War, the American elites had to contend with its ideological enemy, the Socialist/Marxist Soviet Union. Hence the need of soft power to halt the rising tide of Socialism from unraveling the very foundation and social fabric of USA.
      But now both Russia and China are de facto Capitalist, so there is no ideological enemy that threaten the US, except maybe rising religious fundamentalism in certain region, but they are no threat to the US (yet).

  • @guillaumeroy7528
    @guillaumeroy7528 3 години тому +1

    Dear Professor: What would be the legality of Trump's 25 % tariff on Canada and Mexico in relation to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement negotiated and concluded by Trump in 2018? The mainstream media seems to intentionally avoid this issue. Isn't there a dispute resolution mechanism in the agreement (although I'm not sure that there is any dispute causing the tariff threat)? Thank you for your enlightement.

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  2 години тому +1

      Thanks. Good question. On this I don’t know. But I suspect there was a very deliberate reason why he invoked the IEEPA to defend the move. Perhaps there is a national security clause in the agreement. As for wider measures, I’m not sure what dispute resolution mechanisms the USMCA has. Given the US sovereigntist approach and dislike for supranational bodies, I can’t imagine it has an external court, like the European Court of Justice for dispute-resolution in the EU.

  • @DapperDan-k8j
    @DapperDan-k8j 15 годин тому +7

    As a Canadian, I no longer need to wonder what its like living next to a dictator threatening you daily like they do in South Korea, Armenia or Eastern Europe.

    • @Andre-by4su
      @Andre-by4su 15 годин тому

      I'm wondering these days, if push comes to shove, will Canada go the way of Belarus, or Ukraine?

    • @umut7034
      @umut7034 15 годин тому +2

      Cry me a river 😂😂

    • @DapperDan-k8j
      @DapperDan-k8j 15 годин тому +1

      @@umut7034 fascists gonna fascist

    • @timlewis2605
      @timlewis2605 14 годин тому +1

      Sorry neighbor, I didn’t vote for him.

    • @mcsquarish
      @mcsquarish 12 годин тому

      @@umut7034 you'll be crying soon too

  • @Abdi-zv6ex
    @Abdi-zv6ex 12 годин тому +1

    If you put your eggs in one basket, there will be great risks. There are enomical trades and depndable trades. Canada shouldn't be dependable trader. Canada and Mexico should work toward reducing trading United States trade numbers overtime. It will be hard but can be achieved.
    Canada and Mexico should start alternative ways of trading regardless of the distances and cost saving. Trump won't stop or be satisfied regardless of how hard Mexico and Canada try to make him happy.
    He will come back for more until he reaches the point he may argue Canada and Mexico are parts of America 51 and 52 States.
    As long as Canada and Mexico trade with the United States all their business, the issue of economic threats will continue.
    Canada and Mexico should learn from this experience and start working for trading with other countries. We know trading with the United States is economically making sense considering closeness etc but that is no longer the case anymore.
    Mr. Trump will never be satisfied if Canada and Mexico do their business over 80%.

  • @TheStobb50
    @TheStobb50 6 годин тому

    Tariffs usually means you become less competitive because you create a bubble which will eventually burst and you end up a lot more worse off, why do you think the world was trying to get rid of them

  • @lukejohn6139
    @lukejohn6139 5 годин тому +1

    What a great way of putting Trump's tarriffs withi the hstorical perspective of intermational trade. And in a pretty unbiased way too
    Imo, thank you Prof. James.

  • @anotherbacklog
    @anotherbacklog 5 годин тому

    I don’t really see how the US can reindustrialize, especially in the long term.
    Even China is now getting outcompeted by Vietnam and India in manufacturing. The US would have to undercut India in the future.

  • @prettitalented
    @prettitalented 16 годин тому

    I don't disagree that some of our Allies & Enemies have capitalized on America and consumers, that's not up for debate. What is up for discussion however is how this man is going about this, it's so public, so final and so ever changing at the same time. It's not ok, also sewing division amongst our neighbors, most Americans don't realize how good we have it when it comes to border countries, prior to Trump none of us wanted to invade one another, we worked cooperatively, be it some challenges, compared to what other nations go through with neighbors it's really nothing.

  • @moblet
    @moblet 9 годин тому

    For more background on the Colombia stunt see Letters From An American January 27. It was pure theatre.

  • @backstabba
    @backstabba 15 годин тому

    This was more like a summary, but I had hoped the question whether it is a victory will be answered. Someone will eventually take a stand and US can't do this gunpoint diplomacy against all at the same time, no?

  • @custisstandish1961
    @custisstandish1961 16 годин тому +10

    Here in the states I live near a fairly large blueberry growing area. The US has no issue with blueberries coming in from Canada, but our local farmers here cannot export to Canada. Even though our harvest time is months before that of Canada's. Granted this is a microcosm of the Canada/US trade issue, but it is reflective of the trade problems with Canada. Plus there is the have fentanyl Lab issue in both Canada and Mexico.

    • @s.chuang4469
      @s.chuang4469 16 годин тому +1

      It’s kinda the root of the “they’re taking advantage of us” argument, US is the largest importer in the world yet American product can’t access the Canadian market/ European market the same way that Canadian products/ European products can access American market

    • @jamestulk4169
      @jamestulk4169 16 годин тому +3

      That’s odd. In any of the supermarkets I visit here in Toronto, I can find Driscoll berries any time of year

    • @custisstandish1961
      @custisstandish1961 15 годин тому +1

      @@jamestulk4169 Driscoll sources from many different countries. I can only speak for the blueberry farmers in my part of the world. They have a local auction/coop and this is what they say. At any rate, many of our blueberries come from Peru and Argentina, especially in the off season.

    • @jacobwest4771
      @jacobwest4771 15 годин тому +3

      Is it that you can't export to Canada, or is it that your product isn't competitive? Canada imports about a third of its fruit from the US so I find it hard to believe you "can't" export to Canada. It would make more sense that your prices don't compete with those of Latin American countries.

    • @custisstandish1961
      @custisstandish1961 15 годин тому

      @@jacobwest4771 Well, we are competitive enough when we ship our tomatoes and melons to Canada, again, both come in season before Canada's. Frankly, much of our produce, off season, comes from Latin America. Early spring from Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. In season, locally. Other than potato chips and maple syrup don't see much Canadian product here anymore.

  • @thedecadecalled90s64
    @thedecadecalled90s64 5 годин тому

    Yes he did indeed.

  • @EdMcF1
    @EdMcF1 16 годин тому +10

    Did he even start a trade war? Was he leveraging the tariff power to carry out diplomacy by other means, getting what he wanted without wasting time negotiating through diplomatic channels. Let's face it: He's said 'Jump!' and the only question was 'How high?'.

    • @CrocodileWhispers
      @CrocodileWhispers 15 годин тому +5

      "without wasting time negotiating through diplomatic channels" you are an embarassment

    • @drscopeify
      @drscopeify 14 годин тому

      Canada now has a very new, never seen in 200 years, Anti-American mindset, it is amazing how fast people of a nation can rise to the challenge and feel dishonored leading to a retaliation mindset. This means that while Tariffs are officially paused for now, they are actually in-effect. We will see how US-Canada trade plays out in the coming months but if it shrinks dramatically and American exporters to Canada get hit, it shows that you do not need paper with a signature for words alone to have more impact. We will see how the trade numbers look and impact on US GDP in the coming months. It's not the American side that will change habits but it is the Canadian side - as the consumers self-restrict their habits to avoid American products and services. Also some companies in Canada might feel like they have to make changes to how they source goods so they can prepare in case the Tariffs return which means they cut trade with us in the USA and begin buying from other countries instead. We will see how this plays out, with or without tariffs, there will be an impact.

    • @pixellordm8780
      @pixellordm8780 6 годин тому

      He said jump & all the USAs closest diplomatic partners jumped ship to the EU. Congrats I guess!

    • @EdMcF1
      @EdMcF1 4 години тому

      @@CrocodileWhispers Oh dear, facts inconvenient and unhelpful, are they?

    • @CrocodileWhispers
      @CrocodileWhispers 2 години тому

      @ quit the smug talk. You know next to nothing about anything

  • @samanthamccormick1436
    @samanthamccormick1436 17 годин тому +10

    What do you make that most of the concessions won by Trump being agreed to by both Canada and Mexico in December?

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  17 годин тому +9

      Thanks. As I mentioned in another comment raising this excellent point, Trump won't see it that way. He'll say that he has got them to actually do it, and better than they would have under Biden. And he may be right. Either way, the real problem is that he will now see all this as evidence that trade threats work.

  • @neoyuls
    @neoyuls 9 годин тому

    As much as I dislike Sheinbaum and her party for how they've run this country, I would never wish having to deal with Donald trump on my worst enemies

  • @RobFeldkamp
    @RobFeldkamp 13 годин тому

    I thought the Iran deal was the worst deal ever made...?

  • @gregcampwriter
    @gregcampwriter 5 годин тому

    It would be painful for a lot of Americans who didn't vote for the Mango Mussolini, but other countries should organize with each other to say a collective no to Trump. That's the only way to discipline a toddler.

  • @mathewfinch
    @mathewfinch 5 годин тому

    In the long term, absolutely not. Trump blew up all international goodwill towards the United States (it's clear to everyone that the US was an unprovoked aggressor in this fight), and all he got were entirely symbolic concessions. If i were Canada and Mexico this month, i would be spending the next 30 days finding new trading partners. Who in their right mind would do business with the US now?

  • @durim4395
    @durim4395 16 годин тому

    2:55 you forgot the y

  • @redjacc7581
    @redjacc7581 16 годин тому +2

    the leader/government of a country should be protecting jobs for its own citizens.

  • @MarkfromNewYork
    @MarkfromNewYork 17 годин тому +21

    No

  • @mohamedabdukadir3271
    @mohamedabdukadir3271 17 годин тому

    Failed to understand Trump reasons for taxing Canada. Exactly what does he want to achieve through his actions?

    • @johnforeman6620
      @johnforeman6620 14 годин тому +1

      Demonstrate to his domestic MAGA fans how tough he is.

  • @reddykilowatt
    @reddykilowatt 9 годин тому

    Which nutty Trump proposal will you be examining next? The US taking over Gaza or the US sending its prisoners to El Salvador?

  • @tixien
    @tixien 4 години тому

    Sorry Sir, but you don’t even start to answer your very own question beyond what Trump supporters might believe. What were his goals with these specific threats? What. Canada and Mexico precisely agreed to do they didn’t beforehand? I can’t say I have a better and more educated understanding of the situation now, a pity.

  • @PAnon-sama
    @PAnon-sama 6 годин тому

    No.

    • @JamesKerLindsay
      @JamesKerLindsay  6 годин тому

      Are you sure? I guess it depends on what we define as victory. In his mind I think he’ll see this as a huge win. As I said, regardless of whether he did win, he’ll almost certainly believe that trade threats bring results.

  • @wansper9297
    @wansper9297 13 годин тому +2

    Regardless on whether it works or not. I think its extremely cringe to go "I'm not looking for concessions" and then immediatly drop the tariffs when you get the concessions you wanted all along. Does it work, maybe. But god it feels dumb and not the sort of behaviour that should be rewarded

    • @mcsquarish
      @mcsquarish 12 годин тому +1

      So a dumb person does something dumb. Boo hoo, breaking news

  • @sandycarr22
    @sandycarr22 Годину тому

    He did not.

  • @ugiswrong
    @ugiswrong 7 годин тому

    WET’S GO TWUMP

  • @bicker31
    @bicker31 12 годин тому +1

    "controversial US tariffs helped to prolong the global economic downturn" What a strange and biased way to frame that. You just mentioned in the onset of the video that tariffs have traditionally been used to protect local industry. What realistic alternative do you think US politicians had? If the tariffs had not been in place, and capital from the US could more freely exit, what are all of the outcomes from that?
    "forced people to move North in search of jobs" Do you actually think that's an objective take, that they were *forced*? Yikes.

    • @shakiMiki
      @shakiMiki 5 годин тому

      There is a lot of money to be made from economic pain & turmoil. Even if it is just a few days,. Especially with currency speculation. You can be sure the circle around Trump cashed in.

    • @bicker31
      @bicker31 5 годин тому

      @@shakiMiki what does this have to do with my comment? Bot?

  • @pierrefilion7426
    @pierrefilion7426 16 годин тому +2

    He lost his most trusted ally and his credibility by almost destroying his economh for a tantrum

  • @CrocodileWhispers
    @CrocodileWhispers 15 годин тому +1

    dont worry about tip toeing around your conservative audience. They don't read anything but headlines and they certainly wont watch your video before commenting

  • @waynesampson7185
    @waynesampson7185 17 годин тому +1

    Winning a battle but losing the war. Countries are minimizing their exposure to the USA. The States would be the biggest loser.

  • @macaccount4315
    @macaccount4315 17 годин тому +5

    Nice commentary. Try not to read anything into Trump. It’s a mystery. He’s emotional and “nuts”

    • @katiecannon8186
      @katiecannon8186 17 годин тому

      His advisors are ideologues who have absolutely no idea how financial systems work.
      Including not understanding that world reserve currency = Importing stuff & exporting dollars so that the world will use dollars.
      Plus, Trump & President Musk just understand that our government prints dollars & they’re gonna print a ton of dollars to enrich themselves
      Beyond that, they are completely & utterly ignorant

  • @_daboi
    @_daboi 11 годин тому

    I love how when you mentioned the lasting public relation damage done by the tariffs, you showed the headline about booing the US anthem at that Raptors game. XD
    In all seriousness though, this is me just making an uneducated guess; feel free to disagree, but I think Trump's suggestion that Canada become part of the states did WAY more damage to public relations than the tariffs ever could. Never underestimate how deep the notion of "Not American" runs throughout Canadian culture (heck, that's kinda how we started; most of the first English-speaking Canadians were British loyalists fleeing the revolution. Before that, it was mostly French-speakers).
    Either way, great video as always. I know you said you didn't want to talk about Trump all the time, but the subject has definitely ignited some fiery discussions up here, so thanks for touching on the issue. Cheers Professor. :D

  • @Bananaa511
    @Bananaa511 17 годин тому +10

    It's a harsh approach, but can anyone truly argue that it's unfair? There are serious problems to be addressed here, and it doesn't seem like everyone is as invested in solving these problems (unsafe drugs, espionage, human trafficking etc).

    • @mat3714
      @mat3714 17 годин тому

      Less than 1% of anything bad comes from the Canadian border while most illegal weapons and drugs comes into Canada from the u.s.

    • @firebird4491
      @firebird4491 17 годин тому +10

      None of those issues apply to Canada like it does to Mexico

    • @mat3714
      @mat3714 16 годин тому +8

      @@Bananaa511 Less than 1% comes from Canada. You sound like someone who doesn't know anything about the issue. Oh, and most drugs and weapons comes from the u.s so yeah....try again.

    • @achmedaan
      @achmedaan 15 годин тому +3

      Yes, you can very much argue that it is unfair. Less than 1% of illegal border crossings and fentanyl came from the US border with Canada. Why was it treated the same way as Mexico? Answer: Trump's actions aren't based on rational policy. They are entirely based on his own personal feelings.

    • @nigelgarrett7970
      @nigelgarrett7970 14 годин тому +1

      So perhaps you can tell me why the US didn't pass a bipartisan border bill when they had the opportunity? Were they taking those issues seriously then?

  • @janetmontgomery-r6j
    @janetmontgomery-r6j 17 годин тому +3

    No he didn't!!!!

  • @Aaron-rw3lv
    @Aaron-rw3lv 17 годин тому +5

    trump is the loser that keeps on losing 😂

  • @m.walther6434
    @m.walther6434 16 годин тому

    According to a German Political Scientist (Prof. Jaeger University Cologne), Trump's Tariffs are not really about trade. Trumps Tariffs are mend to fill a new US National Wealth Fund where Trump will be the only trustee.

  • @gokhanakay8446
    @gokhanakay8446 17 годин тому +1

    Tax China, tax UK, tax Canada, tax Mexico, annex Grönland and MAGA! Crazy 4 years we have forward, fasten your seat belts! 😀

    • @nigelgarrett7970
      @nigelgarrett7970 14 годин тому +1

      And who is paying your "tax"? Do enjoy all that inflation!

  • @marcchuck-you-farleytrembl2145
    @marcchuck-you-farleytrembl2145 15 годин тому

    No, Trump folded like a lawn chair.

  • @sufthegoat
    @sufthegoat 15 годин тому

    He caved❤😂