The Math Behind Basketball's Wildest Moves | Rajiv Maheswaran | TED Talks
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- Опубліковано 5 лип 2015
- Basketball is a fast-moving game of improvisation, contact and, ahem, spatio-temporal pattern recognition. Rajiv Maheswaran and his colleagues are analyzing the movements behind the key plays of the game, to help coaches and players combine intuition with new data. Bonus: What they're learning could help us understand how humans move everywhere.
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"This game is not about spaciotemporal patterns in kinesiology or any of that. It's about feel. And buckets. It will always be about buckets." - Uncle Drew
Chris Caughey That's what makes a bad player never become a good player. You need IQ in basketball bruh
Justin Namuco you dont know who is Uncle Drew 😂
Ibnziyad Tariq Uhh Kyrie Irving?
Justin Namuco good, but to say that he is a bad player without IQ ??? cmon
Ibnziyad Tariq Did I say Kyrie Irving is a bad player with no IQ? He said all those for whatever reason, but Kyrie himself runs half-court set plays and knows where his other 4 teammates are at. That's basketball IQ
He keeps coming very close to teaching me something, and then backs off like he's afraid that we'd actually learn something.
Huntracony My thoughts exactly! I was excited throughout the video, but left disappointed at the end.
Huntracony suppose it was a commercial of his software
Huntracony Shots of awe anyone ? Never leaves me high and dry!
Huntracony The quality and style of the videos he's showing, betrays that this is a *marketing* presentation. 11:15 especially, looks like the highly polished style of a Microsoft advertisement.
I'm not sure that a university would pay to have such a video made, so something's suspicious here. Polished marketing should _always_ make you suspicious.
Huntracony Spot on assessment.
Very interesting. I think the description buries the most fascinating points: most NBA playoff teams were using this software, and the Ray Allen shot in game 6 of the 2013 NBA finals only had a 9 percent chance of happening.
No, his shot had more than 9 percent chance.
He just said that the exact sequence had a 1 in 9 chance of happening.
Vitringur 1 in 9 is 11%. 9/100 is 9%
Yeah but the only reason he was brough to Miami was for exactly those kind of moments. Is not like Dwight Howard hit the amazing shot. Ray Allen made that shot. That's why he was on the floor.
The exact sequence is 1 in 9. The chance of miami hitting any kind of three was a lot higher
geezus how are people thinking 1 in 9 is 9%.
Imaging an android Basketball coach with the AI mind of Gregg Poppovich...yes it's RoboPop.
(Cue groan and eye roll)
Kevin Wong You are brilliant
👏👏👏👏
You are a true hero to us all
Kevin Wong thank you for this
RoboPop. Such genius. You are a great man lol
As someone that works in the sports analytics field, videos like these are always interesting! It still seems like many teams are slow to integrate findings like these into practice and play. If your'e interested in learning about how to get into the sports analytics field, I have a few videos on my channel that complement this one nicely!
Do you have a video giving the gist of how to create the shot probabilty chart at 8:00? I understand it. But I want to know how to construct the data so I can make some charts like that on my own. I am trying to prove a correlation of # of shot attempts vs Shooting percentage/rate.
I need to prove that James Harden is ruining basketball.
I also want to use it for any position that has to do with attempts vs points made or yards etc.
@@mazengwe28 I don't have a video out like that yet. But I know that there are some people who have built visuals like that using python and matplotlib. I would check out the book sprawlball, the author has some hot takes on harden haha.
@@KenJee_ds Do you you know the math concept or statistics test to compare two rates and where they converge? When I say rate, I mean the opposite of a percentage. Cuz I'm just trying to know what math concept represents volume in terms of shooting or rushing attempts in football?
As a start, I just need a beginning so I can Google search the right thing and do my research from there.
@@mazengwe28 Not sure exactly what methods that he used here. Generally you can use a linear model (regression) for your two variables and see where they intersect. I hope this helps!
This is not a TED-talk, this is a sales pitch.
I felt like the end of the talk was a jump off for a Black Mirror episode.
But apparently its already happening.
I enjoy a lot of TED talks, but I have to admit that you could say that about an awful lot of them
Isn't every Ted talk a sales pitch, in fact the whole Ted model is sales every one of this speakers come to " sell" their idea
we already have a machine in the NBA, its called Greg Popovitch
Or brad stevens
That machine really likes to let its political leanings known...maybe it should be decommissioned
Baba nothings wrong with that though 😂
kawhi leonard*
or LeBron James
As a fan and sports statistics maniac, this is great. As a coach, this is a bit threatening. As a human being, it's frightening.
It's always nice to see a Ted Talk about the science and mathematics in sports.
The thing I noticed was that because the info can tell you players who can shoot well but take bad shots they are worth more as training people to take good shots is much easier than training people to shoot better
Wealthy Big Penis true! that bubble chart with the names on them is what I want to look at Right now for the next 3 hours!!
Who is that bottom bubble? Steph? Who's the worst shooting star players? IT? who gets paid the most for being a terrible shooter? andre roberson?
so many great questions!!
YeeSoest true, however Roberson surely isn't paid the most for being a bad shooter ahah. As far as what this measures, he would be a great shooter, at 54%, however mostly on easy shots. And he 'only' makes roughly 1.2 million a year.
CandyCaneArms Roberson is on like $10 million a year what are you talking about.
It’s JR SMITH!
The points guy @ 4:24
I want a link to that chart
Thats it ua-cam.com/video/rPoeFCjPHe4/v-deo.html
Football... Or the other football.
So, football and handegg. Gotcha.
Soccer
TheGerogero I hate that term "Handegg". A football doesn't even look like an egg. And different regions have different names for things, get over it.
TheSubmergedPeanut It's a joke, you get over it
everything about this thread is funny.
+Russel Walker sometimes people die young because they have sicknesses they were born with and can't be cured
give this to charles barkley. he reject it in a heartbeat
ugie88 he hates analytics people and calls them idiot
I didn’t realize this was uploaded 3 years ago and the first thing I thought of when I saw the bubble chart was that orange bubble at the bottom was Ben Simmons 😂😂😂
He actually doesn't ever say anything. He almost does a bunch of times.
good comment
I was thinking this same thing. Why why why give a presentation on something this cool, and then talk about nothing specific (aside from the heat game at the end-- even that was too short).
Sports analytics is a competitive field with a lot of proprietary information. He was probably limited in what he could talk about.
really interesting. the thing to me is that it doesn't go into detail enough for my level of basketball knowledge but i understand he has to appeal to non-basketball enthusiasts. That bubble chart is really interesting and I want a copy!
This is amazing, yet frightening. Amazingly Freightful
So what does one do with the data involved in this? Predictive algorithms. I'm sure some element of this program is involved in the auto-driving cars.
Unfortunately I see this program getting military application. Not only does this apply to missile defense, it could be a "tracking" technology that changes how wars can be fought on every level of battle (infantry, navy, air, space?).
i'd just use it to win my nba bets rather than lose all the time
There are already a lot of predictive / simulation software out there that the military use. It won't be a surprise if they ask this company to integrate with those other software. (or are already integrated).
very interesting!
Thats a good point in his closing statement about how this could help design buildings and cities with better traffic flow
the best plays are when you score in traffic.
Good talk and presenter. Thanks for posting.
Questionable recreation, Ray Allen was fading away with a defender in his face
The miss wasn't the way it was missed, the defense wasn't good enough, and Daria didn't backpedal so many steps like Allen.
Isaac Adams well they’re not NBA players now are they
Great Ted Talk. As usual
Very insightful
If anyone has a link or some advice how to get into this I would like to know. I am relatively new to the world of machine learning and programming and would like to learn more about this work. Thanks in advance
Great !!
Really want to work in this lab, much more interesting than my own research lol
Excellent video.
no is wasnt
the coolest TED talk ive seen yet! get this man hired on the NBA 2K19 team! jaja
this is very cool!
go easy on the haterode people! granted, the talk doesn't actually delve into the math. rather it presents a high level description of machine learning. don't blame him for the fact that you already know something about this stuff, i bet you many people who watched this video got something out of it, i certainly enjoyed it :)
of course, it really is a really fancy presentation, but that does not in any way take away from the fact, that for example a key problems of machine learning (prediction) is explained lucidly and illustrated vividly by example of spatio temporal pattern recognition in basketball (to find 'good' features to predict the correct 'class' of pick and roll).
if you look for something deeper and less lofty, take a MOOC on this topic, read papers or textbooks but don't watch a TED talk!!
Great viedo
Great video!
no it wasnt
That last part about tracking all kinds of movement sounds like a double-edged sword, very similar to how facebook data on its users were used
Nice 👌🏾👌🏾
Thank you very much too for sharing!
stfu
Good talk. There are things machines still can’t quantify or predict and may never be able to do so but this helps give you a ball park.
Its better to use as analyzing what has happened than using it as a predictor. I 've learned that. The human element is very strong. So trying to apply it to try and guess outcomes of games will still leave you unsatisfied.
Where can we get at this data? I want to know some more pattern's and data around this.
8:59 I saw that game and that play
It would be interesting to learn how exactly they calculate the probability of a shot. It strongly depends on player's movements and skills besides defenders positions and their angles. Obviously, LeBron James and myself have different probability of making a good shot in a fixed game configuration.
Great
The only quote that synced in my mind: "so here's a bubble chart, what's TED without a bubble chart''
Who cares about basketball I want the math behind women's wildest emotions pls
I ran the numbers and it doesn’t compute
lmaooooo
math?
every 28 or so days your 'babe' turns into mr hyde
the rest is pointless
As a spurs fan this talk made me sad
you are awesome
Amazing use of technology on moving dots. However, I feel like there is more to the technology that I want to know more about... this video is too short.
wow awesome graphics
First of all, great concept. I know that some don't like analytics in basketball, but honestly, it's here to stay. Look at the coaching difference between Steve Kerr and Byron Scott.
But focusing on the technology here ... can we extrapolate it beyond movement? What about tendencies? Since we are talking about an algorithm that allows a machine to learn. Aren't technology companies like google and facebook already using stuff like this with personalized ads?
I'm pretty sure U.S. Health insurance companies would like to invest in something like this. IBM already come out with commercials basically saying they want to track your medical history no matter which doctor you see. And something like that isn't something I'm for or against per se. While the technology could lend itself to making a more accurate diagnosis, it takes away a bit of privacy. While I have nothing to hide, I've also been programmed to fear things that even hint at being told I have a "preexisting condition". With my new obamacare insurance, I'm less scared of that now.
I know this technology has been in existence in many various forms, but this talk reminded me once again of how fascinating and terrifying this could be.
Well that got really weird really quick
How can something like that be so interesting?
its let me know a lot
good speaker good talking
"football, or the other football"
this guy... I like him
Unusually clickbaity title for TED ... “... wildest moves”??!!
This can be implemented in a different department like in the Police. All the Police cars patrolling around the city could be tracked as dots and as soon as they find out something is going on, they could contact the police patrolling near to that spot so that the police could get there even faster.
This is cool
What's the product called?
So where's the math??
well ok, if you talk about the math behind, then at least put some math... ergo
thanks. that will fucking answer how he did it... geez, i prefer to be a pseudointellectual than a 'subject matter expert' like you. goat.
This can also (or might be already) used to track movement of terrorists and hopefully prevent future attacks. Great TED
Tim Kwok it's only for specific and very precise movements .....it's not a GPS tracker .....😂😂
Wow his commentary on the park game was taken straight out of game 6 of the 2013 finals.
A great solution looking for a real problem...
Some one send this stuff to take two! Maybe they could learn how to create pick and rolls in 2k!
Where can I get this software?
The way pressure effects individuals is impossible to model as it varies on a day to day basis even within the individual. Some coaches who can read this and see who is "feeling it" on a given play will still be necessary.. So integrate this stuff cyborg style and we have the best teams ever
I think athletes know the sport better than the software.... and sometimes better than their coach
is anywhere I can get this on git?
is there anyone who can explain the meaning of the chart at 8:25 in Chinese? Plz~
What is the name of the app he's using?
what is the software name? or maybe where i can find them pleaseeeee!!!!!
U mean for the presentation? or the analysis.....
I want to know the one used for the presentation ...i.e. digital overlay visualisation
If you want the analysis, its second spectrum
Same
Probability prediction is one of the scariest things to me because as machines get smarter (by this i mean better able to process complex data) the more our movements are being monitored (gathering complex data), so the more data they have and the more likely they are able to predict what we are doing outside of the "monitored areas". Some would say that if your not doing anything wrong then why does it matter and to that i make the same argument back and would go so far as to say that if best guess in the human experience is replaced with perfect guess we trade off a "mistake learning" experience (the process in which we develop common sense) for one that creates a dependency on computers that could send the entire human race down a unrecoverable path.
this
Thought this would teach me something
Interesing technology, but wonder how useful it is at present. Like most new technologies of this sort, guessing it will probably take a while to be very useful & efficient.
To be perfect at some thing you have to deepen into it, this way will make you know the concepts at anytime and makes you realise thing from the mind point of view, so your actions can comprehend the knowledge. There are superficial concepts, and there are deeper concepts, just like math. normal math is explained by another deeper math knowledge that came from another concepts, and so on... every thing explain others, till it is called a miracle which is not according to the law of human mind to comprehend, but it is rather a mysterious concepts beyond human mind that might confuse the mind and might even make human lose their minds...
8:30 I lost.
benbasss hahahaha, at least I'm not the only one! xD
3 years later, the game :P
That’s kinda scary; we could actually be able to predict the future and even tho it would be an amazing and useful innovation, it would take something else out of our lives and I’m not sure if I want to lose it 🤔
Wow introduce one of the most clutch shots in the history of the game and all you can tell us about it was that it was a 37% shot
math is beautiful
USC research faculty doing a sale presentation
Trippy AF
how do we know that the clip he showed isnt edited
this is fucking amazing. true sport science.
When Ray Allen hit the shot it was a 4vs4? Lol other then that this is pretty informative 👍
I would like to know about the differences in movement between men and women.
@4:22 It's The Points Guy!
4:24 - is that @thepointsguy?
Hmm... I am a complete and total basketball nut... But my eyes glazed over after about 4 minutes.
Skip would be proud of this guy, bringing up the Ray Allen's shot, lol. The most clutch shot in basketball.
So that's how Christian Laetner hit that shot to beat Kentucky in 1992 -- he out-spatiotemporal patterned the Wildcats!
I would love to see this data available on the web.
Can these guys make the next 2k game please.
interessant
Well, this software could be revolutionary in sport analytics, but the probabilities are not based on enough factors. There will come a tile where a computer will be able to predict exactly what will happen in a game but by that time it will also be able to predict the future. Which will be a while.
The interesting stuff is how they developed that computer that are able to learn and see pattern by data.
tolll
+kurrethegs it "could" be revolutionary in sports? lol the funny thing about this overwhelmingly ignorant comment of yours is that this has been used by the NBA, NHL, NFL and other organizations for at least two decades now.
In making humans dots we can begin to lose sight of emotion , motivation, bonding , self control limits. Spatial temporal pattern recognition is fine even laudatory but there are blind spots as these persons dont have eyes in the back of their head though they have stereo and peripheral vision to a more or less extent. Sound ie voice recognition fills in these blind spots with team talk. For example the back screen - you're blind- a switch has likely occurred and a mismatch created or a backdoor lane opened. Sensory operation feel and especially sound has to be paired with the technical mechanics of motion . Similarly another example is the voice call of slide. switch , or stay this is critical in screen defense in horizontal diagonal or vertical screens to avoid initiated collision static and the problem of being picked off. Ok sensei what do we do now ?
So... this is the beginning of Person of Interest?
I get buckets
How was the presentation done? Looks more difficult than developing the machine learning algorithms ;)
Really liked his talk except his wide scale applicability at the end which sounded dubious
5:23
the beginnings of Skynet