@@Matt-og6qv I do agree in theory that I'd prefer Waddle or Collins head to head (especially in a PPR scoring format), but looking at how my tiers shake out I think I'd rather take ETN there and see if a WR from that tier drops to me in the 4th, especially if I already have secured a stud WR.
@@lionheartedhaze On a bad offense with a bad OL and struggles with injury he had a down year with efficiency. He still lead the league in broken tackles, was top 12 in big rush plays, and his yards per target was 6th among RBs. The year before he had a 5+ y/a mark on 220 attempts. He's not one of these guys where we have multiple years of sub-4.0 yard per attempt efficiency to say he's just an inefficient runner. We have one 5+ season and one sub-4 season, the jury is still out at the least.
James cook is the only dead zone rb im comfortable taking. He clearly passes the eye test for talent, catches 40+ passes, and is td luck away from being a clear cut top 10 rb.
@@EstablishTheRun I absolutely get the logic, and I agree that in a vacuum I like Waddle/Nico better in that spot than Etienne/Pacheco in a PPR league. But when I look at the mocks I've done and the way I've structured my tiers, and the way my drafts have been coming to me I feel like Pacheco/ETN are the better value were I can get them than Jacob's. Mostly because I see a huge step down in my confidence from those 2 RBs compared to Jacob's. His inefficiency last year was staggering and moving to a new team is not statistically a good move for an RB if you look at the averages. Now, that might not matter because he's going from one of the worst offenses to one of the best, but I worry. That WR tier with Waddle/Nico is so large I'd rather bite the bullet and draft Pacheco in the 3rd and see if a WR from that large tier happens to drop to the 4th, or grab a Metcalf/Kupp/Nabers from the next tier. I'd rather have Pacheco/Metcalf than Waddle/Jacob's personally. Feels like more upside and floor to me.
@@DMOz0ne probably something to converse about after the season. You don’t know what the data will say when the seasons over. That’s what there doing. Giving you data from previous years. It could fall in line with all the past data and show these backs in rounds 3-6 were the dead zone once again, or it could show these were the best values and all of these backs overwhelmingly killed there ADP . We shall see
The whole deadzone RB thing is a joke to me. If I go WR/WR then I’m absolutely comfortable with taking any of the RBs left as my RB1. I’m fully expecting the WRs I drafted to help carry the weight of not having a top tier RB.
Then give us your next 5 picks, must be available. Don't forget, u still need an FT QB, and TE. round 3 and 4 RBs, are so so and you miss top tier QB, or TE
It's data man, this isn't some imaginary thing. That said, it doesn't mean all those RBs will be bad, it means there is a greater discrepancy in their odds of being a bad pick compared to WRs, relative to other points in the draft.
@@barrycalvert8219 I honestly don’t know or follow ADP. I play in 1 snake draft a year and my whole process of drafting is take the guy I want in the round I think is suitable for that player. No deadzone in auctions.
I had the third pick a couple nights ago in my draft. First six picks were CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Isiah Pacheco, Devonta Smith, Trey McBride, and Dak Prescott. The RB "deadzone" is necessary as an anchor for the position if you have an early pick this year.
Rachaad white had a few less opertunities only 2nd to cmc opertunity equals points i didnt need week winners i wanted solid production i love white he was good for avg 15 to 17 avg aweek full ppr and im smashing wr early.
rachaad white is a prime candidate to get benched like miles sanders or dameon pierce. horrible efficiency, not talented, and they obviously want something new cuz they drafted bucky irving
This is why I can’t argue taking Lamb at one over CMC in PPR. The RBs that come back at the 2/3 turn concern me to be my RB1 and I’d much rather go WR/WR there with any of Waddle, Collins, Deebo, Evans, Aiyuk, etc
You guys are off on White, which is fine, everyone is. This guy is going to blow up his ADP. Not only is he going to be top 5 in carries (no one on his team deserves to steal carries from him. Mattison? Not a chance). Where everyone is wrong here is that White is going to be in on 3rd downs most of the time. He is one of the best pass blockers in the league (for RB) which means he will get a bunch more 'dump off/flat' throws than everyone realizes. This guy is more than a 1st or 2nd down RB who only matters if they arent losing. This is mistake thinking, and his target projections are ridiculously lower than his potential. I hope you skip White and get Singletary instead, and I hope I play you twice if you do. People are completely confused about White's role here.
You're missing the entire point of what makes him a dead zone back. Dead zone is all about opportunity cost and projected volume. Any time you're making the case for a guy just off of projected volume, particularly in an absence of talent on a bad team, you're basically making the case he is a dead zone back. This doesn't mean he can't hit, but we're playing a game of probabilities. He's less likely to hit than the WRs going around him.
@@nickbyrd1027 If only a team could have all WRs, then your argument would have teeth. Funny how Mixon going 2 rounds earlier is fine, though. His value is based on volume, and he was pretty mediocre last year if it wasnt for just pure volume. Again, people have this image of him that is mistaken, and so are they about his role, he will be in on passing downs. Lets revisit this conversation in December. I'll take my lumps if I'm wrong. Will you?
To me, this all has to do with lineup requirements. If your league is 2RB, 2WR 1 flex better get your RBs when you can. You go heavy WR in that lineup configuration you’ll get stiffed at RB.
You guys completely ignoring that almost every WR in the 3rd round flopped last year. Waddle, Smith, Ridley, Higgins, etc. all were busts at adp. So if you don't like any of the RBs going in the deadzone, who exactly are you targeting at RB2? Seems like you're completely punting it if you guys are fine waiting to grab Swift, Pollard, Warren/Najee. Guys like Walker, Mixon, Cook, Jacobs have a ton of upside that you can't just ignore. WR isn't a whole lot safer of a pick than RB as you think.
There really don't seem to be a lot of classic dead-zone backs this year tbh (classic being, bad player + meh offense + unclear pass catching going before late round 6) A number of players feel like they fit 3 of the 4 but the 2 players that I feel strongest about meh talent (at this point in their career or in general) + pushed up by projected volume are Rachaad White and Kamara (Zamir White would fit except he tends to go post dead-zone) and both definitely have pass catching (like I unfortunately would not be shocked if Kamara had 80+ receptions this year which is enough even if half PPR to return value) Stevenson, Najee, Connor (to an extent), Jones, and Swift all scare me a bit depending on where they are drafted but again tend to have some combination of being good enough one of the last 2 year, pass catching, and often going late enough that I. don't think I'm a full fade on any of them this year and actively like them depending on the platform/draft room.
I do Hero/Zero WR. I can start up to 4 RBs and as few as 1 WR. So I’m loading up on as many RBs as I can. Sure, some may bust, but they are more consistent than WRs. After the top 5 or so WRs, there is not a huge difference in the next 25 guys. Starting RBs will be gone halfway through the draft. Starting WRs will not.
dude this is a horrible strategy. wrs are way more consistent than rbs. rbs are replaceable by the teams, and they brought up guys like miles sanders and dameon pierce who were benched and gave u zeros. have fun losing ur leagues
I think with time Fantasy goes RB as a team. Who do you draft RB - Atlanta/Detroit. or L.A./MIAMI. Etc. Too much handcuff, too much split back. Time to end this
@Establishtherun Why is there a national narrative for the Bucs offense to take a step back this year? Canales is leaving so I understand the surface-level concern. However, as a Buccs fan, I watched, Ad Naseum, Dave Canales call run on first and second downs to set up third and longs. Bake continued to bail out Canales on third downs (which will no doubt regress back to normal) leading the league in third-down efficiency. The Buccs got worse running the ball after Canales said he would fix the run game from the year prior! While Bake will regress on third downs, Liam Coen will likely greatly improve the first and second down efficiency (avoiding third downs or keeping them manageable) and Bake's 1st and 2nd down efficiency will regress positively (he was among the worst QBs on 1st and 2nd down according to Sharp Football). Mind you Baker still thrived on third and longs with a subpar offensive line missing Marpet, Jensen, etc. The line should be better this year with Barton at the center, the returning three (Wirfs, Mauch, and Goedeke) all having another year of experience, and adding Brederson who is an upgrade over Feiler. Coen will also produce more explosive plays with his motion style of offense plus the diverse skill tree of the players, and the running game will be improved from scheme and line upgrades.
The failure of the Bucs run game is far more due to the fact they don't have the horses than it is a failure on Canales' part. The Bucs OL is straight up bad at run blocking and White is straight up bad at processing plays and hitting the holes. Add them together and you just don't have the tools for a good rush game. I'm open to Liam Coen doing well as Canales' replacement but I'm not sure Baker can replicate his year last year and I just can't see how we move them up much, I feel like they outplayed their talent last year. Any minor upgrades to talent and possibly scheme will likely just counterbalance them playing above their level last year and my shakiness in putting faith in Baker. I think the thing most people are missing though is that most people think the Bucs offense was ranked higher last year than they actually were.
@matthewdennis1739 Barton and Brederson are upgrades over last year, so the push should be better up front. Canales ran the same run and plays over and over again to the point of being admittedly stubborn. Little to no outside zone runs from what I recall, and they didn't even run to Wirf's side that much, where they were more efficient running the ball. If you're running the same plays over and over, you're not keeping any defense off balance and allowing the defense to swallow up the oline, knowing both where a run is coming and where it is going. If anything, Baker played worse than the perceived optics last year, which is why I think his ceiling is higher this year. Turnovers and third down efficiency will likely regress due to luck, but 1st and 2nd down efficiency should offset those factors and keep the turnovers and third down regression in check.
@@tuberose11 Yeah, a lot of moving parts here. Either way I don't really think the change is going to be crazy in either direction. I think they finish in a similar range they did last year, probably +/- 3 spots, +/-1.5 ppg.
I think it really depends on how you view Baker because he's had good to great years and outright horrific ones If he is a below average QB with just enough talent to have some good years then yeah the offense is unlike to do as well as it did last year when he was on the better side. If he is a perfectly serviceable QB when the system and personnel around him don't require him to do too much then the odds of him having another good year are actually pretty high.
Mattison was literally the most obvious face on the board last year…please stop trying to justify it. Cringe. Feels like the guy on the right is the only one who’s not a dumbass.
Etienne is not a dead zone back, he's too explosive, too talented, too efficient.
Ty
@@Matt-og6qv I do agree in theory that I'd prefer Waddle or Collins head to head (especially in a PPR scoring format), but looking at how my tiers shake out I think I'd rather take ETN there and see if a WR from that tier drops to me in the 4th, especially if I already have secured a stud WR.
ETN is a target. Not an Achane type target, but he's great where he's going
He is not efficient…
@@lionheartedhaze On a bad offense with a bad OL and struggles with injury he had a down year with efficiency. He still lead the league in broken tackles, was top 12 in big rush plays, and his yards per target was 6th among RBs.
The year before he had a 5+ y/a mark on 220 attempts.
He's not one of these guys where we have multiple years of sub-4.0 yard per attempt efficiency to say he's just an inefficient runner. We have one 5+ season and one sub-4 season, the jury is still out at the least.
This was great! Thanks so much guys. Let’s do WRs values next!
Lucky I watched this video cos I was actually going to draft a running back.
idk how you could even consider it
Oh man have to watch this one simply based on the sweet thumbnail. Kudos
TY!
Yoooo! Hero rb with marshon lynch sounds good to me!
lol
James cook is the only dead zone rb im comfortable taking. He clearly passes the eye test for talent, catches 40+ passes, and is td luck away from being a clear cut top 10 rb.
I absolutely do not believe Jacobs is better at cost than Etienne/Pacheco. Jacobs worries me.
the dead zone is more fragile this year and we can see a guy like pacheco doing very well.
@@EstablishTheRun I absolutely get the logic, and I agree that in a vacuum I like Waddle/Nico better in that spot than Etienne/Pacheco in a PPR league.
But when I look at the mocks I've done and the way I've structured my tiers, and the way my drafts have been coming to me I feel like Pacheco/ETN are the better value were I can get them than Jacob's. Mostly because I see a huge step down in my confidence from those 2 RBs compared to Jacob's. His inefficiency last year was staggering and moving to a new team is not statistically a good move for an RB if you look at the averages. Now, that might not matter because he's going from one of the worst offenses to one of the best, but I worry.
That WR tier with Waddle/Nico is so large I'd rather bite the bullet and draft Pacheco in the 3rd and see if a WR from that large tier happens to drop to the 4th, or grab a Metcalf/Kupp/Nabers from the next tier. I'd rather have Pacheco/Metcalf than Waddle/Jacob's personally. Feels like more upside and floor to me.
Pacheco is gonna ball out this year
The rb dead zone doesn't exist in 2024. But you better have all your RBs drafted by the 14th round.
@@DMOz0ne probably something to converse about after the season. You don’t know what the data will say when the seasons over. That’s what there doing. Giving you data from previous years. It could fall in line with all the past data and show these backs in rounds 3-6 were the dead zone once again, or it could show these were the best values and all of these backs overwhelmingly killed there ADP . We shall see
The whole deadzone RB thing is a joke to me. If I go WR/WR then I’m absolutely comfortable with taking any of the RBs left as my RB1. I’m fully expecting the WRs I drafted to help carry the weight of not having a top tier RB.
Then give us your next 5 picks, must be available. Don't forget, u still need an FT QB, and TE.
round 3 and 4 RBs, are so so and you miss top tier QB, or TE
its proven to be a thing in the past so just don't take any guy. Be intentional about who you take
It's data man, this isn't some imaginary thing.
That said, it doesn't mean all those RBs will be bad, it means there is a greater discrepancy in their odds of being a bad pick compared to WRs, relative to other points in the draft.
@@barrycalvert8219 I honestly don’t know or follow ADP. I play in 1 snake draft a year and my whole process of drafting is take the guy I want in the round I think is suitable for that player. No deadzone in auctions.
I’m not comfortable with any but I respect your confidence, think they’re right that the market has pushed some good RBs down
I had the third pick a couple nights ago in my draft. First six picks were CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, Isiah Pacheco, Devonta Smith, Trey McBride, and Dak Prescott. The RB "deadzone" is necessary as an anchor for the position if you have an early pick this year.
Rachaad white had a few less opertunities only 2nd to cmc opertunity equals points i didnt need week winners i wanted solid production i love white he was good for avg 15 to 17 avg aweek full ppr and im smashing wr early.
rachaad white is a prime candidate to get benched like miles sanders or dameon pierce. horrible efficiency, not talented, and they obviously want something new cuz they drafted bucky irving
Joe Nixon and Samir White. We must have entered the meta-verse.
lol never copy/paste from apps with autocorrect
Joe Nixon: "I am not a bust ✌️"
@@andrewg3196😂🤣😂🤣😅
Love marshawn lynch this year! Good call.
Great stuff!
TY!
Miller and Leone super sharp
Great content 👊
This is why I can’t argue taking Lamb at one over CMC in PPR. The RBs that come back at the 2/3 turn concern me to be my RB1 and I’d much rather go WR/WR there with any of Waddle, Collins, Deebo, Evans, Aiyuk, etc
What beard color scheme of JUST FOR MEN shade is Adam rockin? Looks sharp, gotta have it.
You guys are off on White, which is fine, everyone is. This guy is going to blow up his ADP. Not only is he going to be top 5 in carries (no one on his team deserves to steal carries from him. Mattison? Not a chance). Where everyone is wrong here is that White is going to be in on 3rd downs most of the time. He is one of the best pass blockers in the league (for RB) which means he will get a bunch more 'dump off/flat' throws than everyone realizes. This guy is more than a 1st or 2nd down RB who only matters if they arent losing. This is mistake thinking, and his target projections are ridiculously lower than his potential. I hope you skip White and get Singletary instead, and I hope I play you twice if you do. People are completely confused about White's role here.
Bad, slow, low volume offense with bad WmQB play, middling OL and mediocre offensive scheme. White just is not a sexy pick.
@@matthewdennis1739 doesn't have to be sexy lol
@@charlespendley6360 I just like other players better there, I think it's a dicey proposition I just can't really get behind personally.
You're missing the entire point of what makes him a dead zone back. Dead zone is all about opportunity cost and projected volume. Any time you're making the case for a guy just off of projected volume, particularly in an absence of talent on a bad team, you're basically making the case he is a dead zone back. This doesn't mean he can't hit, but we're playing a game of probabilities. He's less likely to hit than the WRs going around him.
@@nickbyrd1027 If only a team could have all WRs, then your argument would have teeth. Funny how Mixon going 2 rounds earlier is fine, though. His value is based on volume, and he was pretty mediocre last year if it wasnt for just pure volume. Again, people have this image of him that is mistaken, and so are they about his role, he will be in on passing downs. Lets revisit this conversation in December. I'll take my lumps if I'm wrong. Will you?
The only thing that has me drafting Zamir is that the Saints feel like a team that could mail it in by Wk 17.
Shoutout to the dude who pronounces the H in heir.
lol
To me, this all has to do with lineup requirements. If your league is 2RB, 2WR 1 flex better get your RBs when you can. You go heavy WR in that lineup configuration you’ll get stiffed at RB.
You guys completely ignoring that almost every WR in the 3rd round flopped last year. Waddle, Smith, Ridley, Higgins, etc. all were busts at adp. So if you don't like any of the RBs going in the deadzone, who exactly are you targeting at RB2? Seems like you're completely punting it if you guys are fine waiting to grab Swift, Pollard, Warren/Najee. Guys like Walker, Mixon, Cook, Jacobs have a ton of upside that you can't just ignore.
WR isn't a whole lot safer of a pick than RB as you think.
This underdog/best ball craze is making people lose their minds. Imagine taking Stefon Diggs over Jacobs or Etienne lol. Ridiculous
There really don't seem to be a lot of classic dead-zone backs this year tbh (classic being, bad player + meh offense + unclear pass catching going before late round 6)
A number of players feel like they fit 3 of the 4 but the 2 players that I feel strongest about meh talent (at this point in their career or in general) + pushed up by projected volume are Rachaad White and Kamara (Zamir White would fit except he tends to go post dead-zone) and both definitely have pass catching (like I unfortunately would not be shocked if Kamara had 80+ receptions this year which is enough even if half PPR to return value)
Stevenson, Najee, Connor (to an extent), Jones, and Swift all scare me a bit depending on where they are drafted but again tend to have some combination of being good enough one of the last 2 year, pass catching, and often going late enough that I. don't think I'm a full fade on any of them this year and actively like them depending on the platform/draft room.
the dead zone just may be....dead
How is this strategy impacted by a 3wr 2rb league with no flex?
Great thumbnail!
ty!
Mike Davis is good but I feel like Myles Gaskin is a poster child for dead zone RB
I’m happy getting AmonRa,Wilson & London then going White & Walker/Charbonnet.
No thanks man.
Also how are you getting two first round picks and a 2nd?
@@matthewdennis1739he is new lol
@@charlespendley6360 Just a really odd proposed team.
lmao in what league are u getting those 3 receivers, a 4 person league?
I do Hero/Zero WR. I can start up to 4 RBs and as few as 1 WR. So I’m loading up on as many RBs as I can. Sure, some may bust, but they are more consistent than WRs. After the top 5 or so WRs, there is not a huge difference in the next 25 guys. Starting RBs will be gone halfway through the draft. Starting WRs will not.
dude this is a horrible strategy. wrs are way more consistent than rbs. rbs are replaceable by the teams, and they brought up guys like miles sanders and dameon pierce who were benched and gave u zeros. have fun losing ur leagues
@@dabear7822 Worked for me last year. I won my league. Year before, i finished 2nd. Guess I just got lucky.
Is rondale Moore still in Silvas top 150 or has he capitulated
stay tuned to find out haha!
I think with time Fantasy goes RB as a team. Who do you draft RB - Atlanta/Detroit.
or L.A./MIAMI.
Etc.
Too much handcuff, too much split back.
Time to end this
I have so much Khalil herbert idk if I should pump the breaks or keep pressing.. anyone got opinions on the Chicago backfield Kh vs RJ?
I'm in the you take shots on both camp (in different draft obviously) because they are close to free in an ambiguous situation
Khalil Herbert for me. We have a sleepers vid coming out soon.
Etienne and the take on White are completely wrong and who the hell is worried about Gibson taking touches in NE? Gibson sucks.
Am I wrong or didn’t Achane average more touches per game than Gibbs??
Sure, but Achane also played 4 fewer games.
Actually just checked and no, if my math is right Achane earned 11.8 touches per game and Gibbs earned 15.6 touches per game.
@Establishtherun Why is there a national narrative for the Bucs offense to take a step back this year? Canales is leaving so I understand the surface-level concern. However, as a Buccs fan, I watched, Ad Naseum, Dave Canales call run on first and second downs to set up third and longs. Bake continued to bail out Canales on third downs (which will no doubt regress back to normal) leading the league in third-down efficiency. The Buccs got worse running the ball after Canales said he would fix the run game from the year prior! While Bake will regress on third downs, Liam Coen will likely greatly improve the first and second down efficiency (avoiding third downs or keeping them manageable) and Bake's 1st and 2nd down efficiency will regress positively (he was among the worst QBs on 1st and 2nd down according to Sharp Football). Mind you Baker still thrived on third and longs with a subpar offensive line missing Marpet, Jensen, etc. The line should be better this year with Barton at the center, the returning three (Wirfs, Mauch, and Goedeke) all having another year of experience, and adding Brederson who is an upgrade over Feiler. Coen will also produce more explosive plays with his motion style of offense plus the diverse skill tree of the players, and the running game will be improved from scheme and line upgrades.
The failure of the Bucs run game is far more due to the fact they don't have the horses than it is a failure on Canales' part. The Bucs OL is straight up bad at run blocking and White is straight up bad at processing plays and hitting the holes. Add them together and you just don't have the tools for a good rush game. I'm open to Liam Coen doing well as Canales' replacement but I'm not sure Baker can replicate his year last year and I just can't see how we move them up much, I feel like they outplayed their talent last year. Any minor upgrades to talent and possibly scheme will likely just counterbalance them playing above their level last year and my shakiness in putting faith in Baker.
I think the thing most people are missing though is that most people think the Bucs offense was ranked higher last year than they actually were.
@matthewdennis1739 Barton and Brederson are upgrades over last year, so the push should be better up front. Canales ran the same run and plays over and over again to the point of being admittedly stubborn. Little to no outside zone runs from what I recall, and they didn't even run to Wirf's side that much, where they were more efficient running the ball. If you're running the same plays over and over, you're not keeping any defense off balance and allowing the defense to swallow up the oline, knowing both where a run is coming and where it is going. If anything, Baker played worse than the perceived optics last year, which is why I think his ceiling is higher this year. Turnovers and third down efficiency will likely regress due to luck, but 1st and 2nd down efficiency should offset those factors and keep the turnovers and third down regression in check.
@@tuberose11 Yeah, a lot of moving parts here. Either way I don't really think the change is going to be crazy in either direction. I think they finish in a similar range they did last year, probably +/- 3 spots, +/-1.5 ppg.
I think it really depends on how you view Baker because he's had good to great years and outright horrific ones
If he is a below average QB with just enough talent to have some good years then yeah the offense is unlike to do as well as it did last year when he was on the better side.
If he is a perfectly serviceable QB when the system and personnel around him don't require him to do too much then the odds of him having another good year are actually pretty high.
Is Gus Edwards this years Mike Davis?
I think it’s zamir white
If he were going in the 5th round I'd say yes but in the 10th he is past the deadzone.
Mattison was literally the most obvious face on the board last year…please stop trying to justify it. Cringe. Feels like the guy on the right is the only one who’s not a dumbass.
why does it take 50 minutes to go over this, way too long.